2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 13 Dec 2019 20:18

Guys, have you seen the violent demonstrations across WB and NE? I was expecting that to happen after implementation of NRC, looks like BD infiltrators with the help of certain parties in India are warning the govt not to go ahead in this path. Either govt has to deal with it with iron hand or give in to them, there's no middle ground here.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 13 Dec 2019 20:39

pankajs wrote:No more trust in the political process or the judiciary ... Call for direct action as noted in my last few posts.

https://twitter.com/IndurChhugani/statu ... 2630264832
Indur Chhugani @IndurChhugani

Met some friends today.

They were suggesting a radical movement, to bring the BJP leaders to their senses fast.

Suggesting
Across India boycott all Gujarati run businesses. They said, within less than 30 days, pressure will built on Delhi to reform.

Retweet

Tehehe ...


There is an ongoing case with that person, which may have something to do with his hate for the Rule of Law that is backed up by the current dispensation...as pointed out by another Twitterati

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kiranA » 13 Dec 2019 21:04

So the home minister turned assam in to anothe kashmir. But this time it is linguistic hindus who are on the march .
"The heads of Satras, the Vaishnavite socio-cultural centres of Assam, hit the streets on Friday demanding repeal of the amended Citizenship Act and urged people to hoist black flags in front of their houses in protest against the Act. The Satradhikar of Auniati Satra, Pitambar Deva Goswami led the agitation, which was joined by hundreds of residents of the world's largest river island Majuli, the Assembly seat of Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. "We do not accept the CAB. Even if you impose it forcefully on us, it will not dissolve with the sentiments of the Assamese people. The Bill has already become an Act and it will pollute the Assamese community and language," Goswami told reporters here."

Why will assamese not be upset ? for decades they have been protesting against influx of outsiders enabled by delhi run corrupt and inefficient BSF. THe BSF is staffed mostly by haryanavis and punjabis who dont understand the local culture and who is what there. Their mentalilty an be gauged by a much celebrated (sic) quote of KPS Gill that "in Assam I dont need guns I just need to stand in middle of road".

All that anger led to NRC which identified 1.9 million outsiders. Out of which 1.2 million happened to be bengali hindus which was unacceptable to present Delhi govt. So they started CAB to give a backdoor entry for these bengalis essentially nullifying the whole demand of assamese and the entire purpose of NRC.

Now what is even more distressing is the threat that NRC which failed where there was an actual demand for it will be implemented all over india where there is NO demand whatsover. Once again my people in delta of andhra pradesh need to stand before Delhi and "prove" that they belong to the land they tilled for centuries when nothing called India even existed. This is deeply humiliating - what will Delhi do if some older member or other did not bother - not to mention the stress on others ? kick them out of the very land they were living for centuries ? take away their voting right and decide who their MLA's will be ? Will USA demand farmers from wisconsin once gain to prover they are americans because of problems with mexico border Or will it even ask texans to do that ?. india is made up of very ancient cultures and nations which came together in 1947 both by accident and a hope to have better future and gave Delhi some powers. The only purpose of Delhi is to do good, provide security thats all. All this bahishkaars. demand of proofs from very ancient cultures is beyond its mandate.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 13 Dec 2019 21:18

TKiran wrote:The main reason for so much of heartburn and immediate tactical response to CAB worldwide is that , if there's no opposition, other nations also can bring CABs (US, EU etc) barring the entry of M's into their countries..


CAB doesn’t bar entry of Ms into the country. CAB gives a fast track to citizenship for the non-Ms of three countries. The fast track is not available to anyone else.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2019 21:19

kiranA wrote:So the home minister turned assam in to anothe kashmir. But this time it is linguistic hindus who are on the march .
"The heads of Satras, the Vaishnavite socio-cultural centres of Assam, hit the streets on Friday demanding repeal of the amended Citizenship Act and urged people to hoist black flags in front of their houses in protest against the Act. The Satradhikar of Auniati Satra, Pitambar Deva Goswami led the agitation, which was joined by hundreds of residents of the world's largest river island Majuli, the Assembly seat of Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. "We do not accept the CAB. Even if you impose it forcefully on us, it will not dissolve with the sentiments of the Assamese people. The Bill has already become an Act and it will pollute the Assamese community and language," Goswami told reporters here."

Why will assamese not be upset ? for decades they have been protesting against influx of outsiders enabled by delhi run corrupt and inefficient BSF. THe BSF is staffed mostly by haryanavis and punjabis who dont understand the local culture and who is what there. Their mentalilty an be gauged by a much celebrated (sic) quote of KPS Gill that "in Assam I dont need guns I just need to stand in middle of road".

All that anger led to NRC which identified 1.9 million outsiders. Out of which 1.2 million happened to be bengali hindus which was unacceptable to present Delhi govt. So they started CAB to give a backdoor entry for these bengalis essentially nullifying the whole demand of assamese and the entire purpose of NRC.

Now what is even more distressing is the threat that NRC which failed where there was an actual demand for it will be implemented all over india where there is NO demand whatsover. Once again my people in delta of andhra pradesh need to stand before Delhi and "prove" that they belong to the land they tilled for centuries when nothing called India even existed. This is deeply humiliating - what will Delhi do if some older member or other did not bother - not to mention the stress on others ? kick them out of the very land they were living for centuries ? take away their voting right and decide who their MLA's will be ? Will USA demand farmers from wisconsin once gain to prover they are americans because of problems with mexico border Or will it even ask texans to do that ?. india is made up of very ancient cultures and nations which came together in 1947 both by accident and a hope to have better future and gave Delhi some powers. The only purpose of Delhi is to do good, provide security thats all. All this bahishkaars. demand of proofs from very ancient cultures is beyond its mandate.

Per what I have read, only about 1/3 of the 1.9 million are Bengali Hindus. Get the facts right before you draw conclusions else it is easy to discredit the whole thing as a rant. Supratik saar posted the number too before in this very thread to be around 5 lakhs for Bengali Hindus.

Shah in RS "There will be NRC. For that there is no need for any background as BJP’s election manifesto promise is enough." Whether you like it or not, BJP pitched it in its manifesto and it was elected based on that manifesto and that is reason enough. You don't understand the nature of BJP's mandate.

Btw, the security that you demand is the logic behind the NRC unless you desire the security of "Darul Islam".

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby csaurabh » 13 Dec 2019 21:26

NRC would be wildly unpopular if implemented. I hope good sense prevails on this one.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2019 21:29

There is no choice but NRC will be implemented across the country. Without state boundaries and border control or residency permits there is no other way. People think by having it in Assam will solve the problem of illegals.

The other options is to start erecting virtual borders or issuing Inner line permit for all state and stopping free movement of people across the state boundaries. How about that?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Dec 2019 21:35

csaurabh wrote:NRC would be wildly unpopular if implemented. I hope good sense prevails on this one.


even the pakis have their version of the NRC, just like a whole lot of countries in the world

why not us

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Dec 2019 21:44

How big or important was RSS and Hindu Mahasabha during 1940-47 time frame ?
Did they even had clout beyond 2-3 leaders ?
Never read about them during this period, It was as if there was only one party called Congress and now suddenly congress is all pure like Ganga and it is the fault of Hindu Maha Sabha and RSS that partition happened.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2019 21:46

Bangladesh has its version.

The best option was to do it in between 1950-160 when all GOI needed to do was count everyone in. No documentation required as migration across border was still legal. Every one in the country was a legal resident.

Now it will involve a cost, perhaps a substantial cost. The further we delay the greater the cost becomes in terms of humans, time, disruption and security of the legal citizens.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Dec 2019 21:46

Despite all that p-sec says, Congoons, commies and Islamists are drawing blood lines around themselves and forcing unaware, non-political Hindu to pick sides.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby csaurabh » 13 Dec 2019 21:47

One must have one's ear to the ground and not be delusional. Modi govt is somewhat unpopular as it is.
Asking people to constantly prove their citizenship would be immensely damaging. Far more than tolerating some illegals in the country, who may anyway go back when BD gets economically improved a bit.

Let us not be a like minded 'club' where people shut out the opinions of others. Demonetization was a massive mistake, NRC would be an even bigger one.

We already have an NRC for practical purposes. It is called Aadhar.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Dec 2019 21:48

pankajs wrote:Bangladesh has its version.

The best option was to do it in between 1950-160 when all GOI needed to do was count everyone in. No documentation required as migration across border was still legal. Every one in the country was a legal resident.

Now it will involve a cost, perhaps a substantial cost. The further we delay the greater the cost becomes in terms of humans, time, disruption and security of the legal citizens.


Everyone from BiF can crib and cry but NRC will be a reality soon. It is need of the hour and India just can not have unaccounted Illegals anymore.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby csaurabh » 13 Dec 2019 22:02

Let us be realistic about it. NRC will motivate and increase BIF not the other way round.
Ideas have limitations. Loyalty to Indian nation state and 'Hinduism' only works to a certain extent. If you keep putting people through trials and hardships ( especially if like Assam you have to trace back your ancestry all the way to 1971!! ) they are going to revolt against it.

Please remember that decline of Marathas started when they started raiding all other provinces indiscriminately targeting Hindus and Muslims alike.

NRC also has significant economic cost. Please read this
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/assams ... eplication

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby tandav » 13 Dec 2019 22:38

The BBC weighs in on the CAB. There is apparently a reality check team in BBC which has been quick to defend persistent minority Human Rights Violators in Islamic countries. Would be interesting to know the religious affiliation of the Reality Check Team.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-50720273

While castigating India above the BBC goes on to publish another fluff piece below extoling Turkey's Islamic Zakat inspired tradition of Akmet Zemek (pay it forward bread). Nary a word about the far greater philantrophy traditions of Dharmic India via its Temples/Gurudwaras where the poor were fed has never been showcased by the BBC.

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/2019112 ... it-forward

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vinod » 13 Dec 2019 22:41

If BIF gets motivated further, I think it is good. Because they get desperate and in that desperation, they make mistakes. So, all Modi govt has to do wait for them to let them expose themselves. The BIF has to reveal themselves if they are to remain in play. They were always united but when things get going tough, they will fight amongst themselves and whither away. Only steady inflow of money can prolong their existence and govt is keeping a close eye, even if they cannot be shut out completely.

People have faith in Modi and AS. So, even if NRC imposes some costs, people are willing to give them that lee way just like when the demonetization happened.

So, I am not at all worried.

Tough decisions require some steel mind to see it through. Duo have it in them!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Dec 2019 23:00

We can fight BiF today or we can leave it to our future generations to fend for themselves.
One generation has to make hard choices. Might as well be us.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 13 Dec 2019 23:01

nandakumar wrote:I have relatives living and working in Assam. From what I have gathered after talking to them is this.
1. Normal economic activity is paralysed in most parts of Assam. Shops are shut. Vegetables are in short supply.
2. Internet is down. But mobile voice calls are going through.
3. Protest by native Assamese is largely peaceful. Indeed they go the extra mile to make things easy for people stranded in the midst of road blockades. My relative who is into third trimester of her pregnancy was stuck on the way home from the hospital two days back. She had a 5 year old child too, with her. While the blockade wasn't lifted to facilitate her exit- as a matter of principle- they nevertheless guided her through side lanes and small streets.
4. There is resentment against Bengalis in general and fault them for not assimilating themselves into mainstream Assamese culture. They are not able to articulate what exactly these Bengalis should have done by way of acculturation.
5. The animosity if one can call it that, is economic rather than cultural. The average Bengali immigrant whether Muslim or Hindu is more hardworking and better skilled at their jobs than the average Assamese. This is widely perceived and is proved by personal experience too of my relative.
6. What really irks them is the clever strategy employed to disposses them of their agricultural lands. Apparently, they came in as sharecropper cultivators. The land owning Assamese gladly allowed them to till the land and get a good chunk of the produce. Gradually they bribed the politicians into granting them ration cards, voting rights etc and establish themselves as natives of Assam. They then established their rights as tenant cultivators and claimed ownership rights over land which of course is the law in most States.
7. What do the Assamese want now? They do want the Bengalis to stay in Assam and work there. Certainly the middle class want them. Their lives would be real mess absent the Bengali carpenter/electrician/gardener etc. But they do not want these people to get voting rights or acquire land and a stake in the political power arrangement.



My grandparents in UP had a servant a brahmin from Bihar but uneducated. had a large family to support.. he learnt driving and augmented earrings a bit but upward mobility was limited. He then moved to Guwahati and became an entrepreneur opened a shop.

Our driver in Jamshedpur bought farm land in Assam and had good things to say about earnings and was planning to expand. This was late 80s. I suspect it's not just Bengalis but people from other neighboring states who have moved in over the years, creating a situation like Mumbai and Shivsena.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2019 23:05

csaurabh wrote:Let us be realistic about it. NRC will motivate and increase BIF not the other way round.
Ideas have limitations. Loyalty to Indian nation state and 'Hinduism' only works to a certain extent. If you keep putting people through trials and hardships ( especially if like Assam you have to trace back your ancestry all the way to 1971!! ) they are going to revolt against it.

Please remember that decline of Marathas started when they started raiding all other provinces indiscriminately targeting Hindus and Muslims alike.

NRC also has significant economic cost. Please read this
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/assams ... eplication

NRC will forever freeze the citizenship of India except for addition by official process and births to NRC compliant parents.

BIF will not stop just because NRC stopped. OTOH a non NRC state means an open season for illegal entry and a demographic takeover when Bangladeshi Muslims are already at 36% in Assam. How long do you want to wait? The situation in West Bengal is not any better. We are almost on the edge from where there is little chance of turning the clock back.

Intensification of BIF work is of no consequence when things are still in control. When Bengal and Assam go majority peaceful in a 2 -3 decade there will be no control. Better swallow the bitter pill when the looming future can still be retrieved. No mental gymnastics will work after a certain threshold is crossed.

The highlighted part is a very lame excuse. This is a one shot process that will protect the Assam for the foreseeable future. NRC needs to be done only once after which anyone not in the NRC DB or a descendant of a NRC DB couple is an illegal. Simple!

Cost is the lamest of the excuses. What is cost when compared to virtually assured destruction of Assam? The cost of NOT doing it now is that in 2-3 decades the Assam will be a virtual Bangladesh. The cost of NOT doing it now is that the Assamese people will be forced to flee Assam in 2-3 decades. This is not my assessment but of Hemant B Sarma as stated in Indian Today conclave except for the fleeing part. I some time don't even understand when people bring up "cost" when they don't understand the real COST of their attitude.

Btw, W. Bengal too is on the same path and be prepared to flee in 2-3 decades to the rest of India.

For the other Indian NE states, here is an unasked for peek into the future. IF Bengal and Assam fall, you will have NO place to hide and NO help your way after being cut off from the rest of India. YOUR way of life is guaranteed till the Indian danda is available to beat the shit out of the neighbors. You are too minuscule singly and together when the Bangladeshi decide to invade after a demographic take over of both Assam and W Bengal. Can you folks still not see the future?

IF Bengal and Assam fall, all rest of the NE states will go in a decade after that. THAT IS THE COST of not getting NRC done. It still boggles my mind that people of the areas don't get the picture and come up with all kinds of lame excuse with cost being the lamest. ULFA or Naga armed resistance will not be able to keep the Bangladeshi's from taking over without Indian danda. When the Bangladeshis come for you they will really be coming for you unlike the Indian Army which goes in to restore peace amongst its own citizens.

A 100% Naga or Mizo state with minuscule population wont survive a decade when the Bangladeshis decide to takeover without an robust Indian presence once Assam is gone. It is very disheartening to note that people of W Bengal, Assam and the entire NE don't understand that they are staring at the business end of a shotgun that is fully loaded and cocked.

PS: Multiple edit for clarity

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2019 23:43

https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/sta ... 3413850112
Priyamvada Gopal @PriyamvadaGopal

It is time we started understanding the distinction between formal democracy (which is only majoritarianism) and substantive informed consent democracy (non-existent for the most part)
So now the jockers are thinking of a democracy that is based on "informed consent" whatever that means. :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/NAN_DINI_/status/12 ... 3650271232
Nandini @NAN_DINI_

Yup ! Purge the uninformed plebs !
She gets it.

A government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites. Some democracy this.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Dec 2019 23:47

chetak wrote:
Lekhraj wrote:There was a protest in Jamia milia islamia in Delhi and in AMU too. Muslims are out in the open for Anti-CAB gatherings


There are hundreds of thousands of UP, bihar muslims from India who migrated to the land of the pure during partition only to be denied many opportunities and rights as the panjabi dominated feudal landlords, army and the administrative services labelled them as "mohajirs" and excluded them from the paki mainstream.

likewise many hundreds of thousands of muslims who migrated from the rest of India to pukiland from states like KER, bengal, delhi and many erstwhile princely states, AP especially hyderabad and gujarat.

the others declared as "non muslim" like shia, ahmadhiya and whatnot also seek to return so that they can freeload on the Indian state like their brethren are doing.

The beedis are very very keen to return lakhs of bihari muslims to India that the west pakis have flatly refused to accept even though these biharis are officially paki citizens and decades ago had migrated officially to the erstwhile undivided pakistan now called as beediland.

These things cannot be articulated publicly by the protesting anti CAB muslim hordes as indeed they dare not speak openly of their centuries old religiously mandated and culturally embedded and psychologically deeply ingrained plans of ghazwa e Hind.

That is why the CAB "battle" is being fought in the name of the ever popular and the always hoary chestnut of "secularism" and that is why they are slyly playing up the "discrimination" angle.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0aR25lhDo0


Bangladesh में रहने वाले इन लोगों को Bihari-Pakistani क्यों कहा जाता है? (BBC Hindi)

in beediland they are called "stranded pakistanis"



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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Dec 2019 23:54

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/status/1205421983413850112
Priyamvada Gopal @PriyamvadaGopal

It is time we started understanding the distinction between formal democracy (which is only majoritarianism) and substantive informed consent democracy (non-existent for the most part)
So now the jockers are thinking of a democracy that is based on "informed consent" whatever that means. :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/NAN_DINI_/status/12 ... 3650271232
Nandini @NAN_DINI_

Yup ! Purge the uninformed plebs !
She gets it.

A government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites. Some democracy this.


she means that every time the majority needs or wants to take a piss, they need the consent of the minorities.

back again to the tyranny of the minorities, no matter who wins the elections, the minorities need to be appeased at all times.

this is the lootyens and the commie version of democracy or, as per them, what used to be the good old days before the BJP under Modi came to power

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby dsreedhar » 13 Dec 2019 23:59

csaurabh wrote:Let us be realistic about it. NRC will motivate and increase BIF not the other way round.
Ideas have limitations. Loyalty to Indian nation state and 'Hinduism' only works to a certain extent. If you keep putting people through trials and hardships ( especially if like Assam you have to trace back your ancestry all the way to 1971!! ) they are going to revolt against it.


I have similar opinion. But also understand the need for some kind of citizenship registry. This needs to be carefully handled.
NRC is going to be a humongous task. Coming right after aadhar is another big burden on people.
Govt shld put a lot of effort in convincing people of the need of citizen registry and allay the undue fears among people and burden on them.
Just put enough pressure/fear so illegals leave by themselves but not overly burden/scare rest of people.
I think at this late juncture most of these illegals are going to be absorbed into India but the exercise helps get a handle on future migrations.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Muppalla » 14 Dec 2019 00:09

V_Raman wrote:Can someone repoint to the 7 walls theory by RamaY?



Read it here:

http://kalchiron.blogspot.com/2018/12/s ... m.html?m=1

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 00:17

csaurabh wrote:One must have one's ear to the ground and not be delusional. Modi govt is somewhat unpopular as it is.
Asking people to constantly prove their citizenship would be immensely damaging. Far more than tolerating some illegals in the country, who may anyway go back when BD gets economically improved a bit.

Let us not be a like minded 'club' where people shut out the opinions of others. Demonetization was a massive mistake, NRC would be an even bigger one.

We already have an NRC for practical purposes. It is called Aadhar.

1. Modi is still immensely popular across the country. Don't take my word. EVERY poll agency will tell you this not withstanding the BJP's inability to form governments in MP, Raj, Maha, Chatt and its struggles in Kar. Even if BJP looses Jharkhand, Modi remain extremely popular amongst the state people. This is not my opinion.

2. People will be asked to prove citizenship ONCE except in Assam which had one round before.

3. BD is already ahead of India on certain economic metrics but why are the BDs still coming to India? Unless the differential is substantial (2x or 3x), which is a long way off, the migration will continue because the sheer scale and scope of opportunities is multiple times more in India.

4. I am linking you Demonetization with politics & popularity here. Demonetization was such a massive mistake that people of UP gave BJP and unprecedented mandate? AND to top that India gave a bigger mandate to Modi in GE 2019 than before! Anywhere else, by those two metrics, Demonetization would be considered a master-stroke in the sphere of politics and popularity.

IF NRC is similarly judged, it has the potential to be a bigger master-stroke. Politics is not the art of making 1 + 1 = 2 or 3. Sometimes 1 - 1 = 10 instead of 0 in politics. Politics is strange and I would suggest that we leave it to the masters who have such a stellar track record.

5. Aadhar is NOT NRC like because while Aadhar is optional while NRC will be mandatory. ONLY a mandatory counting system, no matter what it is called, can fulfill the role imagined for NRC.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 00:35

https://twitter.com/KartikeyaTanna/stat ... 0470484994
Kartikeya Tanna @KartikeyaTanna

If persecution happens on basis of religion, a solution to it will also be on basis of religion. If persecution to SCs, STs, OBCs has happened on basis of caste, solution will be on basis of caste. It is time we get over this shyness about #CABBill2019

Case based oppression is sought to be mitigated by caste based reservations. Similarly religious oppression will need a solution on basis of religion. There is no escaping that.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 00:53

I don't know about Assam but the protest in Bengal by the peacefools will ultimately benefit BJP by frightening the Hindu with this display of street power.

Of all the protests, only protests in Assam and Delhi are most critical for the BJP because it is happening in their domains and reflects on their competence directly.

Added later: IF I were Modi, I wouldn't mind the initial round of protest. I would rather use the opportunity to search the call logs, etc to figure out the spider web of those organizing and directing the protests and identify the real mother nodes and at the right time swoop in and break their backs so that by the time NRC is ready to be deployed we can get a smooth rollout.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 14 Dec 2019 01:28

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/status/1205421983413850112
Priyamvada Gopal @PriyamvadaGopal

It is time we started understanding the distinction between formal democracy (which is only majoritarianism) and substantive informed consent democracy (non-existent for the most part)
So now the jockers are thinking of a democracy that is based on "informed consent" whatever that means. :rotfl: t

https://twitter.com/NAN_DINI_/status/12 ... 3650271232
Nandini @NAN_DINI_

Yup ! Purge the uninformed plebs !
She gets it.

A government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites. Some democracy this.

Pankajji
It means we need to inform the select few liberandus and get their consent before listing any Bills :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
And for a good measure we should approval from USCIRF also :lol: :lol:

hanumadu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 14 Dec 2019 01:40

Watch the video in the tweet. Its in bengali though.

https://twitter.com/trunilss/status/1205523997246382081?s=20

নীলসুনীল
@trunilss
If you want to understand the pain which CAB and NRC have caused among the so-called seculars, watch this video.

Here a Bangladeshi news channel says, "Fearing CAB and NRC, thousands of Bangladeshi Muslims are coming back to Bangladesh everyday, who had infiltrated into India."!

vijayk
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 14 Dec 2019 01:55

Rsatchi wrote:
pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/status/1205421983413850112
So now the jockers are thinking of a democracy that is based on "informed consent" whatever that means. :rotfl: t

https://twitter.com/NAN_DINI_/status/12 ... 3650271232
She gets it.

A government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites. Some democracy this.

Pankajji
It means we need to inform the select few liberandus and get their consent before listing any Bills :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
And for a good measure we should approval from USCIRF also :lol: :lol:

^^ Basically now DUMBOO COMMIE filth wants only democracy of elite. unwashed abdools who kidnap 12 years old girls, rape and marry them are OK to vote. Abdools who can take 4 wives and collect $25,000 welfare check per wife is are OK to vote. Software Engineer who makes good money with 1 or 2 kids is not OK to vote if he does not vote for COMMIE thugs

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 03:45

A few points, if I may:

Out of 1.9 mil out of NRC in assam, 1.2 mil are bengali speaking (bong+BD) hindu, 0.2 mil are non bengali hindu and 0.5 mil are Bengali speaking(bong + BD) muslim. This demographic segmentation has been widely published, so far there is no credible source disputing this. Anyone claiming otherwise based on their "own research", I would like to see any corroborating data source.

The population estimate work that was done before NRC expected around 0.55 mil BD hindu. When 1.2 mil bengali speaking hindu(double the estimated) were identified in NRC as BD hindu, it's fate were sealed on that very day because it was obvious that many genuine indian citizen (bengali speaking indian citizen hindu from Barak Valley) were tagged as illegal by the process. The number of Muslims 0.5mil were as per expectation. These 0.5 mil Muslim didn't even appeal after the first draft. Again, this has been widely published.

This result was expected. Any decent statistician/data scientist would have pointed out that this is the expected result. Given Indian standard of documentation, there is going to be high false negatives with strict criteria and high number of false positives with lax criteria. Expecting anything else is a fallacy.

Employing strict criteria resulted in twice the bengali speaking hindu out of NRC, near about 50% of them are genuine indian citizen. The CAB is merely rectifying that false negative issue.

So, 4 crore population of Assam, a single state, were registered in NRC at a cost of 1400 crore. The result, what we got is for everyone to see. We are talking of replicating this pan India with 28+ state and 130 crore population. And expecting more accurate result.

Good luck. NRC is the gift that will keep on giving. For many generations to come.

Many non-bengali hindu folk is thinking that they do not have any risk , the only risk would be bourn by muslim and bengali hindus. They could not be more wrong. That's all I am going to say.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby V_Raman » 14 Dec 2019 03:48

Why cant they go on a massive passport issuance drive first before starting NRC? Ask everyone with right documentation to get passport in x months.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 04:05

I know my post above would irk many rakshaks. Here is the second part.

We should have fenced our border in 1980s. The demography of Assam would still face an issue but at least rest of the India would have spared the BD muslim influx. I, and any knowledgeable ear to the ground in border states can gurantee that 99% of BD immigrants, be it hindu or muslim, who came over after economic liberalisation are neither in Assam, not in WB. For the simple reason, these 2 states are not doing any better than BD socially or economically and can not sustain the aspiration of the additional influx. Heck, they can't sustain their own population. Yes, it may surprise you but that's the truth.

Those recent influx have spread over to the rest of the india in small pockets, too small in numbers in any one particular area. From the fields of punjab to hacheries in Coimbatore to construction work in bangalore, they are present along with many bong hindu and muslim labour from WB. Because, after years of Left misrule, WB can not provide sustenance to it's own population.

It would be near impossible to catch them and only them. Lot of indian citizen would get caught. Other than finishing the border fencing there is no solution, that's the bitter truth. It is like asking for a solution for cancer or death at old age. Nothing doing.

Now this will irk you further and some will start calling me names. So be it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2019 05:04

what's the point in fencing if you leave the border unguarded :mrgreen:

watch how the beedis are crossing the fence


India-Bangladesh border in Assam.
#CAB is for you guys



https://twitter.com/Constantinusis/status/1205191336862851072

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby tandav » 14 Dec 2019 10:11

Karthik S wrote:Guys, have you seen the violent demonstrations across WB and NE? I was expecting that to happen after implementation of NRC, looks like BD infiltrators with the help of certain parties in India are warning the govt not to go ahead in this path. Either govt has to deal with it with iron hand or give in to them, there's no middle ground here.


My recent visit to Assam (4-6Dec during the lead up to CAB) only showed a few ~10-50 member protesting CAB by some effigy burning activity while driving from Guwahati to Jorhat. There was no major violence. The more important event in Guwahati seemed to the sprucing up of the city to welcome the Japanese Prime Minister Dec15-17th which has been deferred to later.

https://mea.gov.in/response-to-queries. ... e+to+India

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 14 Dec 2019 10:14

Chetak,
What is happening here? Id it BD boarder? According to who?

If true what a shame!

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2019 11:09

Apart from how the political dynamics play out, and how the civil-military equation balances out in Pakistan, Bajwa will be constantly looking over his shoulder to guard himself against being shafted by his own officers.

If bajwa goes, then niazi is a dead duck. This dynamic duo can either rule together or run away together.

As always in pakiland, the proverbial noose swinging enticingly from the nearest lamp post is never too far away.

uncle niazi will run well before that happens presenting a conundrum for both the hans as well as the amerikis.



Extension To General Bajwa Exposes Deep Rooted Dissension In Pakistan Army



Extension To General Bajwa Exposes Deep Rooted Dissension In Pakistan Army



By Jai Kumar Verma


New Delhi. 09 December 2019. The illustrious quotation about The Kingdom of Prussia that “it was not a country with an army but an army with a country” is fully applicable on Pakistan. Pakistani army ruled the nation either directly through different coups or created a façade of civilian government and governed the country through remote control.

The Chief of Army Staff of the Pakistan Army is the most powerful person in the country. Hence when Chief Justice Asif Saeed Khosa raised objections on the extension of Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa all were surprised. There were speculations that army may overthrow the ‘selected’ Prime Minister Imran Khan. Large number of people in Pakistan believe that Imran Khan became Prime Minister as all powerful army selected him for this job. In past, six army chiefs either gave extensions to themselves or they extended their term through civilian governments without any objection.

In August 2019 more than three months before the expiry of General Bajwa’s term, Pakistan government issued a notification under which his term as army chief was extended for three years w.e.f. 28 November 2019. Government mentioned about the tense ‘regional security situation’ because of defanging of article 370 and revocation of autonomy of Kashmir. The on-going peace process in Afghanistan was also cited as a reason for the extension. However, Pakistan watchers mention that Imran Khan extended General Bajwa’s tenure so that his term passes smoothly as he is a protegee of General Bajwa.

The order was challenged in the supreme court of the country which asked uncomfortable questions and during arguments it also emerged that there is no provision of extension to army chief in the constitution or in the Army Act. Chief Justice Khosa also stated that the justifications given by government are “vague’. He also pointed out that if there is threat to the regional security than the full army has to face the threat and in that case the role of an individual will be very limited. The court also ruled that the government should pass a legislation in parliament within six months. The legislation must define the reasons for giving extension to an army chief’s service, tenure and other essential terms and conditions. The court’s judgement was unprecedented as so far, no hearing was done in connection of extension to the army chief.

It will not be easy for Imran Khan to pass the act from both houses of Parliament as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has majority in the lower house but in the senate the opposition party has the majority.

The Judiciary was emboldened to act against the extension of army chief as seven Lieutenant Generals are opposing the extension of General Bajwa. The Lt. Generals include Corps Commander Multan Lt Gen Sarfraz Sattar, Lt Gen Nadeem Raza, Lt Gen Humayun Aziz, Lt Gen Naeem Ashraf, Lt Gen Sher Afghan and Lt Gen Qazi Ikraam. In case of three-year extension to the current army chief about 24 Lt. Generals would retire which will include few Lt. Generals who were aspiring for the top job. Lt. General Sattar was the senior most general and would have become the chief on 29 November after the retirement of General Bajwa. He served as Defence Attache in India and his name was also forwarded by General Raheel Sharif for the Chief of Pakistan Army before his retirement.

The disgruntled army generals are behind filing the case against Bajwa’s extension. Few days before the extension to General Bajwa, a case was also filed by a retired army officer claiming that General Bajwa was an Ahmadi, which means he is a non-Muslim hence he is ineligible to become the chief of army staff. Later the petition was withdrawn, however another petition was filed in which the legality of the extension was challenged. Although the petitioner withdrew the case, but the court dealt the case and first it appeared that Justice Khosa would pass orders against the extension but at the last stage, the court gave six months’ time to get a legislation from the parliament.

The present case was filed by the person who in past filed cases in favour of army while this time he filed the case against the army chief. It is also an indication that he filed the case on behest of discontented army generals.


Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman President of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) also announced Azadi March on behest of the malcontent army generals. Although several political parties requested JUI president to postpone the Azadi March, but he insisted that the March would commence in October few weeks before General Bajwa’s original retirement date. It was apparent that Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman’s ‘Azadi March’ is connected with the extension of the army chief and although he was asking for the resignation of Prime Minister Imran Khan, but the real target was General Bajwa. It is also certain that if General Bajwa does not get the extension it will be very easy to dethrone Imran Khan.

Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman also dared to reject the request of General Bajwa not to organise the March. In past politicians always accepted the request/directive of army chief because of the powers army chief possess. Maulana disregarded General Bajwa’s request because he had the backing of dissatisfied army top brass. Not only this when he terminated his Dharna he mentioned that there will be a big change in the months of December or January. It also indicates that he got this information from his mentors in the army.

The leaders of opposition parties also put a two-week Dharna in Islamabad and demanded the resignation of Imran Khan. The opposition leaders claimed that Imran Khan won July 2018 parliamentary elections as the authorities rigged the elections. Although the press is afraid of writing anything about the army but ‘social media’ is full of stories about the dissatisfaction in the Pakistan army about the three years extension to General Bajwa.

It is also contemplated that General Bajwa would resign within six months and will not wait for passing of the legislation in his favour by parliament. Firstly, it may be difficult to get it passed from parliament and secondly the extension has become controversial and has lowered the prestige of the high office. In last whether General Bajwa resigns or stays for three years will unfold soon but it damaged the image of Pakistan army which claims itself as the saviour of the country. The internal dissension in the army also came on the surface and the fact that army generals are involved in the intrigues is also exposed which is very damaging for any disciplined organisation.



(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Last edited by chetak on 14 Dec 2019 11:20, edited 1 time in total.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2019 11:09

Katare wrote:Chetak,
What is happening here? Id it BD boarder? According to who?

If true what a shame!


assam beediland border saar.

the twitter link gives you the handle.

Also, at many places along the bengal and assam border, the cattle smugglers use telescopic cranes to swing live cattle from India across the border fencing as well. Most of the cattle are stolen from other Indian states and transported to the beedi border for sale to the beedis

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kati » 14 Dec 2019 11:51

Those BRF-ites active in social media, especially connected to Assam, please spread the following once again.
Remind everyone that CAB is for these helpless minorities:

http://www.asiantribune.com/node/69877

Katare
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 14 Dec 2019 11:57

chetak wrote:
Katare wrote:Chetak,
What is happening here? Id it BD boarder? According to who?

If true what a shame!


assam beediland border saar.

the twitter link gives you the handle.

Also, at many places along the bengal and assam border, the cattle smugglers use telescopic cranes to swing live cattle from India across the border fencing as well. Most of the cattle are stolen from other Indian states and transported to the beedi border for sale to the beedis


There is no information, just music playing on the video. Looks fishy


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