2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 16 Dec 2019 16:12

Picklu wrote:
darshhan wrote:
i.e. Until unless the NRC nodal agency is given clear instructions and targets upfront. To do this two things would be required.

1. Totally shed the pretense of being secular.(finally starting to happen as islamist savagery is increasingly hard to hide)
2. Ideologically alligned NRC staff.


I hear what you saying and as I said, i have no love lost for the sikulars. But think of the end game about what you suggest. 3 points

a. What are you going to do with the excluded ones ? The path forward for us, the bonafide citizens with such large number of excluded folks (illegal and bonafide) living among us?

b. Our per capita income is still in one of the lower slabs in the world and like it or not, we are desperately in the need of foreign capital. How are we going to handle the global pressure that will for sure mount on us for such a religiously coloured weeding of possibly bonafide citizens? Remember, we are not talking about only the middle east and the elite left lib sicular gang of OECD countries but even the common honest folks who would also definitely not agree to disfranchise bonafide citizens based on religion. And in this case, to the global audience, everyone is bonafide even if some documents are missing until and unless they are proven illegal beyond all doubt.

c. Given the Number of populations involved, we would need Crores of stuff in NRC. How are you going to get such ideologically aligned AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMPERVIOUS TO CORRUPTION Crores of adult indians ready to be NRC stuff?

Note: this is not the same case where we exclude a large number from all religions based on strict but secular criteria. Here we are talking of simply targeting one (or two, at the most three minority if you want the EJs and Khalistanis out at the same time)


picklu saar, AS has said all infiltrators will be thrown out before 2024. I believe he will. While it's good on your part to be level headed and all, but you like it or not, infiltrators in scale of crores are serious threat. Not sure I'd want my family to live under that threat.

600 million people in China live in and around poverty. Do you see any country raise finger on them?

Across the globe, right and far-right parties have won elections, arson, rape etc are common stories in most European countries, we all know who the perpetrators are. So let's not do dhoti shiver and assume MS, Amazon, JP Morgan etc will stop investing in India.
On the contrary, they will stop investing here if they feel internal security is not stable in a decade's time.

People who are apprehensive about it, please look at the other side, they are willing to take tremendous amount of pain, sacrifice etc to achieve their goal, they follow their leaders blindly. And look at us, picking on each other, undermining our own security because of our own little insecurities about economy, logistics etc. Govt had this in their manifesto, now they've acted on it. Let's support the govt. in every way we can. It's not for govt's sake, it's for ours and our next generations sake.

picklu saar, would you rather go through hardships for 2 decades (if at all things happen the way you are projecting if this bill is implemented) at the end of which we will get fine along with guaranteed security of our next generations and our civilization OR would you rather us not take hard decision NOW and make our next gen see what our ancestors saw?

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 16:15

Sachin wrote:
Picklu wrote:The cost of leniency and amnesty for the existing bd illegal ones, economically, diplomatically, security wise and public health and welfare and all the other plethora of governance, is miniscule compared to what will happen if we embark on this strict document based lineage verified NRC that is currently being proposed.

Then perhaps it would be a better idea to restrict the movement of such people. Say restrict them to West Bengal or some thing similar. The reason why I say this; in the last six months alone we have seen one double murder (two old people killed), one brutal rape and murder, and one grand theft (of jewellery). In all cases the accused/arrested are Bangladeshis (masquerading as Bengalis). Allowing such people a free run in other parts of India would be more counter productive. And worse would be these fellows also getting Indian passports and then start the usual terrorist stunts in other countries. Till now, India could at least say that Islamic terrorists from India have not caused much damage to the rest of the world.


If there is any practical way of doing so, that's eminently supportable but I am afraid I do not see any such path forward without putting bonafide indian citizens in WB in serious discrimination. Such ethnic targeting would definitely cause alienation and the result of such alienation would not be good either.

You will simply be trading religious weeding with ethnic weeding. And each and every argument that applies against religious weeding applies for this case too.

Try this for size. There are more than 7 crore bongs live in this country. Trying to put them as 2nd class citizen to avoid putting 1 Crore illegal BD as 2nd class citizen, let's just say is not a smart trade off.

No, the better approach would be to improve the handling of the L&O situation behind those crimes and lesser radicalization via UCC and "one nation one syllabus".
Strict control of mosque and madrasas and all missionaries too.

That would have the added advantage of handling the kasargod, ganga-jamuni, bhatkal, darbhanga module and other indian jihadi, khalistani, naxal, maoist, EJs and similar scums better.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 16:45, edited 6 times in total.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 16:28

Karthik S wrote:
Picklu wrote:
I hear what you saying and as I said, i have no love lost for the sikulars. But think of the end game about what you suggest. 3 points

a. What are you going to do with the excluded ones ? The path forward for us, the bonafide citizens with such large number of excluded folks (illegal and bonafide) living among us?

b. Our per capita income is still in one of the lower slabs in the world and like it or not, we are desperately in the need of foreign capital. How are we going to handle the global pressure that will for sure mount on us for such a religiously coloured weeding of possibly bonafide citizens? Remember, we are not talking about only the middle east and the elite left lib sicular gang of OECD countries but even the common honest folks who would also definitely not agree to disfranchise bonafide citizens based on religion. And in this case, to the global audience, everyone is bonafide even if some documents are missing until and unless they are proven illegal beyond all doubt.

c. Given the Number of populations involved, we would need Crores of stuff in NRC. How are you going to get such ideologically aligned AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMPERVIOUS TO CORRUPTION Crores of adult indians ready to be NRC stuff?

Note: this is not the same case where we exclude a large number from all religions based on strict but secular criteria. Here we are talking of simply targeting one (or two, at the most three minority if you want the EJs and Khalistanis out at the same time)


picklu saar, AS has said all infiltrators will be thrown out before 2024. I believe he will. While it's good on your part to be level headed and all, but you like it or not, infiltrators in scale of crores are serious threat. Not sure I'd want my family to live under that threat.

600 million people in China live in and around poverty. Do you see any country raise finger on them?

Across the globe, right and far-right parties have won elections, arson, rape etc are common stories in most European countries, we all know who the perpetrators are. So let's not do dhoti shiver and assume MS, Amazon, JP Morgan etc will stop investing in India.
On the contrary, they will stop investing here if they feel internal security is not stable in a decade's time.

People who are apprehensive about it, please look at the other side, they are willing to take tremendous amount of pain, sacrifice etc to achieve their goal, they follow their leaders blindly. And look at us, picking on each other, undermining our own security because of our own little insecurities about economy, logistics etc. Govt had this in their manifesto, now they've acted on it. Let's support the govt. in every way we can. It's not for govt's sake, it's for ours and our next generations sake.

picklu saar, would you rather go through hardships for 2 decades (if at all things happen the way you are projecting if this bill is implemented) at the end of which we will get fine along with guaranteed security of our next generations and our civilization OR would you rather us not take hard decision NOW and make our next gen see what our ancestors saw?


Brother, I am 100% with you as I do not want my family to live under that threat either. Just the opposite of it, given my family history. We escaped by the (fore)skin of our d*ck is the joke among the cousins in family whatsapp group.

My opposition to current NRC process does not come from rose tinted idealism but rather on hard nosed analysis for the future of our country.

As I said, if the idea is that the muslims will suffer and only downside risk will be faced by some Ghosh and Bose, unfortunately the situation in Assam shows that's simply not true. Yadav, Patel, Arora, Singh, *kar, Reddy, Iyer, Iyengar - all will face the music from the crores of NRC stuff for documents with minor mistakes.

When 3.5 Crore faces that nation wide, the RW govt will fall, there is no way it can survive because the bonafide citizens in the 3.5 Crore would have friends and relatives on NRC who would react negetively to dharmic agenda. You have seen how easy to ween people away from RW agenda in Raj, MP and Chhattisgad. Wait till the assembly elections happen in NE to validate this further.

Cong and BIF forces will come back then. As shown in MH, even if BJP wins 271, it has to sit in the opposition bench. The first thing the BIF pasand govt would do is to nullify the NRC. And immediately after that, they would ensure ensure that RW and their supporters are identified and hunted down to remove their threat to power once and for all. The people suffering in the process of NRC would actively help them in vengeance.

As far as AS stating all illegals would be thrown out before 2024, let him do that. Just let him ensure that the criteria of defining someone illegal remains so lenient that only the 100% hard core jihadi BD scum, not amounting to more than 5 to 10k gets identified illegal. Sanp bhi mare aur lathi bhi na toote.

I have already mentioned in the 3 step process how.

Again, I am not coming at it from idealism, sikularism or any such shit. Giving amnesty to illegal BD who are already in for quite some time is better for RW dharmic cause from a cold blooded hard nosed analysis.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 17:00, edited 1 time in total.

hnair
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hnair » 16 Dec 2019 16:53

Picklu, after the bill has been signed by the President, it is getting clear that the Home Ministry is going to face challenges. What you said below is an issue that RSS was always worried about. They had to face this vengeance five times since Independence and it weighs heavily on the seniors of Nagpur's mind.

As shown in MH, even if BJP wins 271, it has to sit in the opposition bench. The first thing the BIF pasand govt would do is to nullify the NRC. And immediately after that, they would ensure ensure that RW and their supporters are identified and hunted down to remove their threat to power once and for all. The people suffering in the process of NRC would actively help them in vengeance.


Just before 2019 LS campaign came to an end, I heard an anecdote from a senior-Leftie type national journalist(he was already despondent) who was covering North about why UP-Bihar will be swept by Modi - the RSS was apparently threatened with a sixth ban if UPA is back in power by the Dynasty and its courtiers. They took that threat seriously. They melded into the BJP campaign in an efficient and complementary fashion, since it was felt 2019 was an existential election. Reverse of this I have seen happen in *ALL* Kerala elections: most of BJP leadership are considered caca by the RSS, so they stay aloof in lots of elections including the recent Vattiyoorkav one, where the BJP candidate is a acquaintance of mine and is a strong organizer. But still he won less votes than candidates, because RSS was not convinced.

One question I have: How strong is the RSS network in West Bengal and Assam? A lot will depend on them now

Paging Singha, for his views on Assam, CAB and feedback from his network!

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 17:19

hnair wrote:Picklu, after the bill has been signed by the President, it is getting clear that the Home Ministry is going to face challenges. What you said below is an issue that RSS was always worried about. They had to face this vengeance five times since Independence and it weighs heavily on the seniors of Nagpur's mind.

As shown in MH, even if BJP wins 271, it has to sit in the opposition bench. The first thing the BIF pasand govt would do is to nullify the NRC. And immediately after that, they would ensure ensure that RW and their supporters are identified and hunted down to remove their threat to power once and for all. The people suffering in the process of NRC would actively help them in vengeance.


Just before 2019 LS campaign came to an end, I heard an anecdote from a senior-Leftie type national journalist(he was already despondent) who was covering North about why UP-Bihar will be swept by Modi - the RSS was apparently threatened with a sixth ban if UPA is back in power by the Dynasty and its courtiers. They took that threat seriously. They melded into the BJP campaign in an efficient and complementary fashion, since it was felt 2019 was an existential election. Reverse of this I have seen happen in *ALL* Kerala elections: most of BJP leadership are considered caca by the RSS, so they stay aloof in lots of elections including the recent Vattiyoorkav one, where the BJP candidate is a acquaintance of mine and is a strong organizer. But still he won less votes than candidates, because RSS was not convinced.

One question I have: How strong is the RSS network in West Bengal and Assam? A lot will depend on them now

Paging Singha, for his views on Assam, CAB and feedback from his network!


Nairgolis Sir, As i mentioned, the protestation against CAB is because it is feasible politically in the name of religious persecution vs protestation against NRC. Islam by nature is extremely discriminatory and non practicing muslim is averse to religious discrimination. CAB is nothing to them. But they are not stupid to understand where this is going. NRC is going to be deadly for them.

The current riots will pale in comparison when the pan india NRC will be ordered and implemented. This is truly existential not just for the Illegal BDs but a large part of bonafide indian muslims after CAB.

Even supposedly sane muslim intellectuals like Zafar Sareshwala alludes to the same here:
https://twitter.com/zafarsareshwala/sta ... 49312?s=20
and here:
https://twitter.com/zafarsareshwala/sta ... 28128?s=20

And by the way, given the reality of Kerala with RSS not able to protect it's cadres life and limb very often, not swinging any election seems to be counter productive. Following the same process of governance, I can predict a huge number of hindu RSS cadre would be excluded in NRC if that get's implemented and despite CAB, would face a lot more hardship and far more targeted persecution than the current level. Most of the muslims would escape the noose via corruption as happened in Assam. A few that won't escape would be twice vindictive against dharmic cause and it's supporters.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 17:31, edited 1 time in total.

Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 16 Dec 2019 17:22

Sidhant Sibal @sidhant
Citizenship amendment law #CAA is internal matter of India. India a great democracy: French envoy


https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1206537310025601026

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 17:30

Picklu wrote:1. Fence the border in 2 layers with a minefield in between to slow down any attempt to cross over. For any river, put the 2 layer fence on our side of the bank. Will stop most of the illegals. The technological solution exist. All the excuses given for topology etc are mostly bunkum and govt chickening out from a large infra project without any direct financial ROI.

2. Only when the above step 1 is complete, create a register of citizens, call it NRC, NPR whatever. Seed it directly from Aadhaar which already has more than 95% coverage of all citizens with biometrics and facial profile.

{Just the reverse order ... Start NRC first because we are looking at a decade worth of delay otherwise. Plus NO border can be sealed totally but one especially between Indian and Bangladesh given the terrain cross-crossed by rivers, marshes and Sundarbans.}

Grant an one time amnesty for all who are already in India and have some/any kind of documentation at that point. I am not against the register per say, only against this madness of document verification proving lineage upto some cutoff date that's 30/50 year in the past.

And we need to ensure that while the obviously jihadist BD scum gets excluded, the total final exclusion does not cross 5-10k. We need to be lenient. Because, handling anything beyond that would be a disaster financially, security wise and also in terms of foreign policy. Basically, no half measures at this point. Find the newly entered jihadist scum that has no pathway to citizenship, lock them in jail for life and throw away the key forever. Can't be done for a large group of people beyond 5 to 10k. Allow the rest in as citizen and get them integrated via UCC and aadhaar. We need to stop hanky panky by all - indian jihadist, ej, khalistani etc etc and not just the bd jihadi. NRC is not the tool for this, UCC and its strict implementation and monitoring via Aadhaar is the key.

It is important to do this after step 1, else there will remain a loophole and new illegals will keep on coming and get added to the same register via the local political support. However much we like, Cong, CPM, TMC and their ilk are not going away anywhere soon.

{Sorry this is wrong ...
1. NRC first border can take time. Once NRC is over illegal entry have no status. Can easily be identified and deported lawfully as is being done globally.
2. Every BD identified has to be deported not just the jihadis. Deportation of illegals is the norm worldwide. It will NOT be a foreign policy disaster as you are suggesting. It has to be done via legal and humane process that is all. Just check US record under Obama on deportation!}


3. CAB remains. The single most humane thing this govt has done. Jai ho. People like my family members will always have a home in this great nation in the future. Already Matuas in WB, more than 70 lakh in numbers are celebrating.

To all who think the protest is against CAB, you can't be more wrong. The protest is essentially against the current method of NRC which CAB enables. However, protesting against NRC is not politically feasible since it needs lot of data point to prove the futility. Hence the protest against CAB which is easy because it allows to run the narrative of specific religion based exclusion.

{"Positive discrimination" is part of the basic fabric of our constitution. Narrative will not work in the courts. RTE is a recent example of religion based law.}

hanumadu wrote:
If the estimated Assamese population at present is 3.4 crore, only 3.3 crore applied for NRC. That is 10 lakh did not even apply. So I guess we can add them under excluded BD muslims which then makes the total number of excluded BD Muslims to 17 lakhs.


3.4 Crore is the rough number and it is an estimate. The actual number may very well be 3.3 Crore or there about. 10 lakh is big number and it does not appear feasible that so many didn't apply. 5 lakh muslim excluded in NRC didn't appeal and that itself came out in the news papers multiple times. If 10 lakh didn't apply, it would have surely come out in the news one way or another with MSM pushing the "dara hua muslim" narrative.

And even if for the sake of argument, we say 10 lakh didn't apply, I hope you do realize the implications of 17 lakh people living amidst us with all sort of documentation but simply not appearing in the register. Extrapolate the same to the rest of the nation and say 40 lakh remains excluded. They would have what N3 mentioned so eloquently "Made in Pakistan documents" to evade most of the cursory search.

Can you again imagine the security, public health and economical burden such a large undocumented population puts on a society organised via citizen register and aadhaar (vs the current entirely unorganised one)?

{Once NRC is done the "public health and economical burden" will be removed cos all direct and indirect subsidies will be linked to NRC. No entry in NRC no benefits plus no access to any public or private service. Most BDs will be forced to go back under such circumstance.}

Are we going to put police officers with deep anal probes every street corner to ensure these 40 lakhs undocumented one do not appear out of thin air, cause any hunky panky and simply vanish afterwords? For maintaining security, those probes will enter the nether orifice of everyone, both legal and illegal. And imagine the scope of bribe!!!

And exactly that's what would be needed. Because if people (illegal or otherwise) think that they do not have proper documentation to get registered in NRC, they simply won't bother to even try and put themselves in the doubtful list. They would rather go "unregistered" and such a large population would simply find it's own way to survive undocumented as is the human nature to survive. That's exactly the learning from LatAm illegals in America or ME illegals in EU.

{This is what a nation wide NRC will neutralize making it impossible to get very basic things without being registered with the GOI in one form or another. They simply cannot remain invisible to the system and survive for long. E.g. Every Phone/Gas/Electric conn/Vehicle/DL/Water bill/House/Renter/Job/School entry/Bank account/Railway tickets/etc will be linked to NRC.

Sachin wrote:Then what do you suggest? :). Allow the Bangladeshi illegals to enjoy their life in India? Bangladeshi caught with Indian passport at KIA - is what today's Deccan Herald reports. And this is not the first case. Bangladesh->Bengal->Bangalore->Middle East seems to be the regular route taken by these people. And sooner or later India as a nation will have to face the music when the Bangladeshis start their criminal activities in the middle east. From what I understand many Sheikdoms in Middle East now do NOT issue VISAs for Bangladeshis, considering their criminal nature.

My opinion is that there has to be some way to ensure that India does not become a heaven for Bangladeshis. There has to be some way to make sure that they do not get any privileges by remaining in India. Be it an internal passport system like what they have in China.


Sachin sir, the reason why I am responding to you in the same reply to N3 is so that i do not have to repeat. My suggestion is the 3 steps i have put above. I am putting forth this suggestion for quite sometimes now. Only, currently, there is data to bolster the argument after Assam NRC.

And you are not going to like what I am going to say here. The cost of leniency and amnesty for the existing bd illegal ones, economically, diplomatically, security wise and public health and welfare and all the other plethora of governance, is miniscule compared to what will happen if we embark on this strict document based lineage verified NRC that is currently being proposed. It would be a human rights disaster for legitimate citizens caught as illegal for numerous common reasons(* see a few sample below) and equally disastrous for a large group of undocumented illegals living among us without registration.

Is that fair to tax paying bonfide indian citizen like me? No. But that's the path of best case unfortunately.

If I have to give an analogy, consider this:
After a particular age, a man won't be able to have a hard-on.
All human are bound to die at old age.

Do we like this? No. However even if we consider then a problem, there is no solution to them.

That's exactly the case of illegal BDs who are already in. Trying to weed them out is akin to taking a boatload of Via(little blue pill)Agra at the age of 90 to solve the hard-on problem. No good will come out of it. For either case :)

=======================
* Among the common reasons why a strict verification may fail a large number of bonafide indians, I have already given examples of misspelling etc in the documents, omission in voter roll, natural calamity like cyclone, flood, earthquake, fire in govt record office, non digitized records in poorly maintained storage etc that keeps on hitting us like clockwork. Our land and property records are nothing to talk about either to begin with, we simply are not great in documentation.

Even where records exist, it may face a challenge to furnish because of human relationship issues etc like
a. relatives fighting court cases for property etc
b. multiple marriage in our ancestors and relationship breaking down due to various disputes/emotions arising out of it.

I have examples of both among distant relatives and I am sure that's quite common. The number of court case backlogs is empirical proof of point a and for point b, well us the people of the subcontinent are all extremely similar in our social structure irrespective of language, ethnicity and religion.

Take all these in together and you will find that a significant number of bonafide indians have a risk to get excluded in the NRC. The extrapolated figure of 3.5 crore would suddenly start making sense.

And the solution via Internal passport? You must be joking sir. If the illegals can manage 100s of other documents, what's another one more? Already you are aware that most of the BD folks in Bangalore are fluent in Kannada. Quite a few are even multilingual in all south languages.

Nothing surprising, human beings would achieve great things for survival. It's better to channel and harness that for the betterment of society and country rather than creating a division within our society with lot of bad bloods.

And the current riots are pointing exactly in that direction. Bad blood. Think of the end game. Before NRC, they were not rioting at this scale, the threat of NRC has put them on an war path.

What would you do with that many jihadi living among us in future as undocumented who has become more embittered and antagonistic in the process?

1. Fix a cutoff date such that families immediate (father, mother, brother, sister, uncle, etc) can still be identified back in Bangladesh.
2. Have a nationwide NRC with the above cutoff date.
3. Fix a slightly liberal documentation requirement as compared to Assam's.
4. Deport the BDs who can be identified clearly. BD recently stated that they are willing to take back their citizens AND deportation is legal and ethical globally. Shouldn't create any foreign policy issues.
5. Clear cases get added to the NRC database.
6. Doubtful cases can be given long-term work Visa like permit pending 2nd level verification.
7. Anyone clearing the 2nd level verification will automatically get into NRC else if they are conclusively proven to having BD citizenship will get deported back at a later date.
8. Ensure very strict quality control on the government side. Experience from Assam will help and with Modi/Shah we can expect efficiency.
9. Link all public and private services to NRC validation forcing everyone, no matter how hard they try, to have a NRC query run against then at least once a year.

The threat of nationwide NRC will force most recent migrants to go back. Those who remain thinking of working the system will be weeded out sooner or later by the service linkage.

The tricky question is for those who have been here for more than a generation. Someone who is himself 40+ in age with children 20+ age but who have not know BD will be the most disadvantaged. Plus such grownup children will have no record in BD. GOI will have to grant them citizenship because we cant make people stateless.

BD's have declared that they will take back their citizens so anyone who can be identified should be pushed back. We can't have a general amnesty.
Last edited by pankajs on 16 Dec 2019 17:31, edited 1 time in total.

kittoo
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kittoo » 16 Dec 2019 17:31

Picklu wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
picklu saar, AS has said all infiltrators will be thrown out before 2024. I believe he will. While it's good on your part to be level headed and all, but you like it or not, infiltrators in scale of crores are serious threat. Not sure I'd want my family to live under that threat.

600 million people in China live in and around poverty. Do you see any country raise finger on them?

Across the globe, right and far-right parties have won elections, arson, rape etc are common stories in most European countries, we all know who the perpetrators are. So let's not do dhoti shiver and assume MS, Amazon, JP Morgan etc will stop investing in India.
On the contrary, they will stop investing here if they feel internal security is not stable in a decade's time.

People who are apprehensive about it, please look at the other side, they are willing to take tremendous amount of pain, sacrifice etc to achieve their goal, they follow their leaders blindly. And look at us, picking on each other, undermining our own security because of our own little insecurities about economy, logistics etc. Govt had this in their manifesto, now they've acted on it. Let's support the govt. in every way we can. It's not for govt's sake, it's for ours and our next generations sake.

picklu saar, would you rather go through hardships for 2 decades (if at all things happen the way you are projecting if this bill is implemented) at the end of which we will get fine along with guaranteed security of our next generations and our civilization OR would you rather us not take hard decision NOW and make our next gen see what our ancestors saw?


Brother, I am 100% with you as I do not want my family to live under that threat either. Just the opposite of it, given my family history. We escaped by the (fore)skin of our d*ck is the joke among the cousins in family whatsapp group.

My opposition to current NRC process does not come from rose tinted idealism but rather on hard nosed analysis for the future of our country.

As I said, if the idea is that the muslims will suffer and only downside risk will be faced by some Ghosh and Bose, unfortunately the situation in Assam shows that's simply not true. Yadav, Patel, Arora, Singh, *kar, Reddy, Iyer, Iyengar - all will face the music from the crores of NRC stuff for documents with minor mistakes.

When 3.5 Crore faces that nation wide, the RW govt will fall, there is no way it can survive because the bonafide citizens in the 3.5 Crore would have friends and relatives on NRC who would react negetively to dharmic agenda. You have seen how easy to ween people away from RW agenda in Raj, MP and Chhattisgad. Wait till the assembly elections happen in NE to validate this further.

Cong and BIF forces will come back then. As shown in MH, even if BJP wins 271, it has to sit in the opposition bench. The first thing the BIF pasand govt would do is to nullify the NRC. And immediately after that, they would ensure ensure that RW and their supporters are identified and hunted down to remove their threat to power once and for all. The people suffering in the process of NRC would actively help them in vengeance.

As far as AS stating all illegals would be thrown out before 2024, let him do that. Just let him ensure that the criteria of defining someone illegal remains so lenient that only the 100% hard core jihadi BD scum, not amounting to more than 5 to 10k gets identified illegal.

I have mentioned in the 3 step process how.


Interesting take, Picklu saar. And it did get me thinking. Actually, even I won't be able to prove my citizenship since my mom's name was wrongly entered by my school teacher in 10th and it has stuck, and my dad passed away long time back. I am sure there will be some solutions but for sure there will be pain too for people like me. The trick is to make sure minimum hassle to genuine citizens. Given our babudom and machinery, thats a tall ask. Now, will Hindus who go through pain because of this desert the BJP? A valid question in my opinion.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 17:45

Picklu wrote:
darshhan wrote:
i.e. Until unless the NRC nodal agency is given clear instructions and targets upfront. To do this two things would be required.

1. Totally shed the pretense of being secular.(finally starting to happen as islamist savagery is increasingly hard to hide)
2. Ideologically alligned NRC staff.


I hear what you saying and as I said, i have no love lost for the sikulars. But think of the end game about what you suggest. 3 points

a. What are you going to do with the excluded ones ? The path forward for us, the bonafide citizens with such large number of excluded folks (illegal and bonafide) living among us?

b. Our per capita income is still in one of the lower slabs in the world and like it or not, we are desperately in the need of foreign capital. How are we going to handle the global pressure that will for sure mount on us for such a religiously coloured weeding of possibly bonafide citizens? Remember, we are not talking about only the middle east and the elite left lib sicular gang of OECD countries but even the common honest folks who would also definitely not agree to disfranchise bonafide citizens based on religion. And in this case, to the global audience, everyone is bonafide even if some documents are missing until and unless they are proven illegal beyond all doubt.

c. Given the Number of populations involved, we would need Crores of stuff in NRC. How are you going to get such ideologically aligned AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMPERVIOUS TO CORRUPTION Crores of adult indians ready to be NRC stuff? If you think police, IT dept, customs etc are corrupt, wait till these NRC guys start literally asking for kidney as well as your firstborn.

Note: this is not the same case where we exclude a large number from all religions based on strict but secular criteria. Here we are talking of simply targeting one (or two, at the most three minority if you want the EJs and Khalistanis out at the same time)

a. Deport the one identified as BDs at least. BD has agreed to take back its citizens.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 692482.cms
Willing to take back our citizens, if any, illegally staying ..

b. Illegals are deported all over the world including from the US. Plus "positive discrimination" is part of the basic structure of the Indian constitution and I, for once, wouldn't mind the airing a bit of our dirty laundry globally. I would like GOI to go out and privately explain to governments around the globe how skewed the Indian constitution is against the Hindus. Perfect opportunity to sensitize the world governments to coming changes in the Indian constitution to make it truly secular.

c. Spending is not really an issue if we can clean the system. GOI, will obviously have to step up its game as far as corruption is concerned. You shouldn't worry about the internal political fallout of the NRC. Modi/Shah will know their politics better than us. Let them worry whether Indians are ready for NRC.

Last 2 point is more fear mongering, 1st in the name of "what will the world say" to which we have our constitutional defense and 2nd in the name of Indian people to which I say let Modi/Shah worry about the political fallout.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 17:59

kittoo wrote:
Picklu wrote:
Brother, I am 100% with you as I do not want my family to live under that threat either. Just the opposite of it, given my family history. We escaped by the (fore)skin of our d*ck is the joke among the cousins in family whatsapp group.

My opposition to current NRC process does not come from rose tinted idealism but rather on hard nosed analysis for the future of our country.

As I said, if the idea is that the muslims will suffer and only downside risk will be faced by some Ghosh and Bose, unfortunately the situation in Assam shows that's simply not true. Yadav, Patel, Arora, Singh, *kar, Reddy, Iyer, Iyengar - all will face the music from the crores of NRC stuff for documents with minor mistakes.

When 3.5 Crore faces that nation wide, the RW govt will fall, there is no way it can survive because the bonafide citizens in the 3.5 Crore would have friends and relatives on NRC who would react negetively to dharmic agenda. You have seen how easy to ween people away from RW agenda in Raj, MP and Chhattisgad. Wait till the assembly elections happen in NE to validate this further.

Cong and BIF forces will come back then. As shown in MH, even if BJP wins 271, it has to sit in the opposition bench. The first thing the BIF pasand govt would do is to nullify the NRC. And immediately after that, they would ensure ensure that RW and their supporters are identified and hunted down to remove their threat to power once and for all. The people suffering in the process of NRC would actively help them in vengeance.

As far as AS stating all illegals would be thrown out before 2024, let him do that. Just let him ensure that the criteria of defining someone illegal remains so lenient that only the 100% hard core jihadi BD scum, not amounting to more than 5 to 10k gets identified illegal.

I have mentioned in the 3 step process how.


Interesting take, Picklu saar. And it did get me thinking. Actually, even I won't be able to prove my citizenship since my mom's name was wrongly entered by my school teacher in 10th and it has stuck, and my dad passed away long time back. I am sure there will be some solutions but for sure there will be pain too for people like me. The trick is to make sure minimum hassle to genuine citizens. Given our babudom and machinery, thats a tall ask. Now, will Hindus who go through pain because of this desert the BJP? A valid question in my opinion.

Tell me saar

1. Did you get Aadhar done?
2. Was is disruptive for you and people around you?
3. How much bribe did you or anyone you know pay?
4. Did the BJP government fall because Aadhar caused a lot of pain all around for no "visible" gain?

Think for yourself and you will get your answer. Rest if all fear mongering.

Btw, note further ...

1. NRC Assam was a court ordered process
2. NCR nationwide will be GOI designed process which already has such a massive exercise behind it .. YES the Aadhar enrollment. It will tweak the Aadhar process with the NRC requirements and Assam learning experience.

How fickle is memory and how easily we stop thinking for our-self and how easily we are swayed by half facts.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 18:09

pankajs wrote:1. Fix a cutoff date such that families immediate (father, mother, brother, sister, uncle, etc) can still be identified back in Bangladesh.
2. Have a nationwide NRC with the above cutoff date.
3. Fix a slightly liberal documentation requirement as compared to Assam's.
4. Deport the BDs who can be identified clearly. BD recently stated that they are willing to take back their citizens AND deportation is legal and ethical globally. Shouldn't create any foreign policy issues.
5. Clear cases get added to the NRC database.
6. Doubtful cases can be given long-term work Visa like permit pending 2nd level verification.
7. Anyone clearing the 2nd level verification will automatically get into NRC else if they are conclusively proven to having BD citizenship will get deported back at a later date.
8. Ensure very strict quality control on the government side. Experience from Assam will help and with Modi/Shah we can expect efficiency.
9. Link all public and private services to NRC validation forcing everyone, no matter how hard they try, to have a NRC query run against then at least once a year.

The threat of nationwide NRC will force most recent migrants to go back. Those who remain thinking of working the system will be weeded out sooner or later by the service linkage.

The tricky question is for those who have been here for more than a generation. Someone who is himself 40+ in age with children 20+ age but who have not know BD will be the most disadvantaged. Plus such grownup children will have no record in BD. GOI will have to grant them citizenship because we cant make people stateless.

BD's have declared that they will take back their citizens so anyone who can be identified should be pushed back. We can't have a general amnesty.


Not sure whether you realize it or not but you are essentially stating the same things as I said but you are stating this without the numbers to avoid the scrutiny.

1. "slightly" liberal documentation requirement as compared to Assam's is I have also said, you just have avoided giving numbers unlike me because as I said, the then the stark numbers present the real problem. About BD accepting, well, no nation on earth can decline receiving deported citizens, the trick is to prove they are citizen of the origin country. Proving some not Indian is not same as proving they are BD. Please put the numbers of US deportation and try to compare with the number of illegal BDs in India.
2. Doubtful cases can be given long-term work Visa like permit pending 2nd level verification. and Ensure very strict quality control on the government side. well, we all have seen how that has turned out in Assam which had a BJP state govt with absolute star performers like Sonowal and HBS. They are not incompetent in any margin. And this has nothing to do with efficiency of NaMo or AS either. The things of such magnitude are simply not achievable in a short term with quality. We have seen how despite best effort Namami Gange and Swatch Bharat still have lot of miles to cover. And in this case, we are talking of genuine non muslim indian citizens getting extorted and suffering in the hand of NRC stuff.
3. About your faith in NRC query and linking to solve the problem, well remember GST was to do something similar remove corruptions in business. We all know how that has solved the corruption problem. Same would be the case of illegals. Check who are suffering in GST and you know why the fear of legitimate non-muslim citizens suffering is real. They all will get added for 2nd level verification. And would remain there. And would keep on getting extorted. Without any say in election or the other political process. Once father gets cleared, the son will be added. Just like it happened in Assam NRC - parents and some children are included and some one child excluded. There are so many way to extort.
4. Somehow you have become convinced about the infallibility of NRC process. To you, anyone excluded in NRC must be a BD, no scope for false negative. You do not trust me, fine. Talk to any statistician of RW inclination if it so pleases you. Given the track record of data maintenance in our nation, there is no way to avoid large number of false positives and false negatives simultaneously. And for false negatives, trying to push them back to BD is going to be disastrous from every which way. So, the only way is to reduce false negatives(Indians getting caught as illegal), which will shoot up false positive(illegal BDs getting in as bonafide indian) and that's the ONLY way forward as any statistician would tell you.

It is madness to do the same thing repeatedly and expect better result when things are so fundamentally wrong from a scientific perspective. The current NRC process didn't work in Assam and without significantly changing the citizenship identification criteria, it would not work on PAN India basis.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 18:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Yagnasri » 16 Dec 2019 18:10

BD is only saying words. There will no way they are going to agree for taking people back. As far as other ideas expressed here, there is no way we can keep large section of infiltrators who are now rioting in the streets without seriously endangering our internal security. The number is in Crores and they are not just BDs. Huge number of Rohingyas are settled all over India including places like Jammu.

As for as the nobel ideas, they don't help you when thousands come on streets and start attacking homes and public properties like they are doing now or starting helping Pakiland.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 18:14

pankajs wrote:
kittoo wrote:
Interesting take, Picklu saar. And it did get me thinking. Actually, even I won't be able to prove my citizenship since my mom's name was wrongly entered by my school teacher in 10th and it has stuck, and my dad passed away long time back. I am sure there will be some solutions but for sure there will be pain too for people like me. The trick is to make sure minimum hassle to genuine citizens. Given our babudom and machinery, thats a tall ask. Now, will Hindus who go through pain because of this desert the BJP? A valid question in my opinion.

Tell me saar

1. Did you get Aadhar done?
2. Was is disruptive for you and people around you?
3. How much bribe did you or anyone you know pay?
4. Did the BJP government fall because Aadhar caused a lot of pain all around for no "visible" gain?

Think for yourself and you will get your answer. Rest if all fear mongering.

Btw, note further ...

1. NRC Assam was a court ordered process
2. NCR nationwide will be GOI designed process which already has such a massive exercise behind it .. YES the Aadhar enrollment. It will tweak the Aadhar process with the NRC requirements and Assam learning experience.

How fickle is memory and how easily we stop thinking for our-self and how easily we are swayed by half facts.


Aadhaar is not a proof of citizenship and it is quite easy to get aadhaar. The processes are not comparable at all. Aadhaar becomes painful only when strict lineage verification becomes mandatory. Hence my recommendation of seeding NRC/NPR whatever you call it, with the current aadhaar data with lenient verification to take away the pain.

You want to compare with a painful process? Trying running demonitization for a period of 3 years and see how the govt fares.

And 3 years is actually less when it comes to NRC.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 18:22, edited 1 time in total.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 18:17

pankajs wrote:
Picklu wrote:
I hear what you saying and as I said, i have no love lost for the sikulars. But think of the end game about what you suggest. 3 points

a. What are you going to do with the excluded ones ? The path forward for us, the bonafide citizens with such large number of excluded folks (illegal and bonafide) living among us?

b. Our per capita income is still in one of the lower slabs in the world and like it or not, we are desperately in the need of foreign capital. How are we going to handle the global pressure that will for sure mount on us for such a religiously coloured weeding of possibly bonafide citizens? Remember, we are not talking about only the middle east and the elite left lib sicular gang of OECD countries but even the common honest folks who would also definitely not agree to disfranchise bonafide citizens based on religion. And in this case, to the global audience, everyone is bonafide even if some documents are missing until and unless they are proven illegal beyond all doubt.

c. Given the Number of populations involved, we would need Crores of stuff in NRC. How are you going to get such ideologically aligned AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMPERVIOUS TO CORRUPTION Crores of adult indians ready to be NRC stuff? If you think police, IT dept, customs etc are corrupt, wait till these NRC guys start literally asking for kidney as well as your firstborn.

Note: this is not the same case where we exclude a large number from all religions based on strict but secular criteria. Here we are talking of simply targeting one (or two, at the most three minority if you want the EJs and Khalistanis out at the same time)

a. Deport the one identified as BDs at least. BD has agreed to take back its citizens.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 692482.cms
Willing to take back our citizens, if any, illegally staying ..

b. Illegals are deported all over the world including from the US. Plus "positive discrimination" is part of the basic structure of the Indian constitution and I, for once, wouldn't mind the airing a bit of our dirty laundry globally. I would like GOI to go out and privately explain to governments around the globe how skewed the Indian constitution is against the Hindus. Perfect opportunity to sensitize the world governments to coming changes in the Indian constitution to make it truly secular.

c. Spending is not really an issue if we can clean the system. GOI, will obviously have to step up its game as far as corruption is concerned. You shouldn't worry about the internal political fallout of the NRC. Modi/Shah will know their politics better than us. Let them worry whether Indians are ready for NRC.

Last 2 point is more fear mongering, 1st in the name of "what will the world say" to which we have our constitutional defense and 2nd in the name of Indian people to which I say let Modi/Shah worry about the political fallout.


You may term it fear "mongering" but there are 12 lakh hindu in assam who has lived through the hell and the fear of repeating the same with crores of indians are very much "real".

Now instead of talking in generic terms, why don't you put what's your estimate of identified BD would be via the process you are suggesting?

And put some source and reasoning behind the estimate.

I have put publicly available sources AND quoted them for easy reference in my posts. Have given all the reasoning behind the extrapolations also. It's only fair that you do the same instead of accusing others to mislead via half truth.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 18:26, edited 1 time in total.

Rsatchi
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 16 Dec 2019 18:25

Willing to take back our citizens, if any, illegally staying ..
DHAKA: Bangladesh foreign minister A K Abdul Momen on Sunday ..
Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/72692482.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst:
He rejected speculation of "pushback" attempts by India, saying some Indian nationals are illegally entering Bangladesh :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Lo Ji Kallo Baath :lol: :lol: :lol:

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 18:27

Rsatchi wrote:Willing to take back our citizens, if any, illegally staying ..
DHAKA: Bangladesh foreign minister A K Abdul Momen on Sunday ..
Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/72692482.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst:
He rejected speculation of "pushback" attempts by India, saying some Indian nationals are illegally entering Bangladesh :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Lo Ji Kallo Baath :lol: :lol: :lol:



"our citizens" is the operating word.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 18:29

Yagnasri wrote:BD is only saying words. There will no way they are going to agree for taking people back. As far as other ideas expressed here, there is no way we can keep large section of infiltrators who are now rioting in the streets without seriously endangering our internal security. The number is in Crores and they are not just BDs. Huge number of Rohingyas are settled all over India including places like Jammu.

As for as the nobel ideas, they don't help you when thousands come on streets and start attacking homes and public properties like they are doing now or starting helping Pakiland.


Y Garu, not sure if you are referring me about nobel ideas but i can assure you there is no lofty idealism behind what i post. My blood boils equally to write what I wrote.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kittoo » 16 Dec 2019 18:33

pankajs wrote:
kittoo wrote:
Interesting take, Picklu saar. And it did get me thinking. Actually, even I won't be able to prove my citizenship since my mom's name was wrongly entered by my school teacher in 10th and it has stuck, and my dad passed away long time back. I am sure there will be some solutions but for sure there will be pain too for people like me. The trick is to make sure minimum hassle to genuine citizens. Given our babudom and machinery, thats a tall ask. Now, will Hindus who go through pain because of this desert the BJP? A valid question in my opinion.

Tell me saar

1. Did you get Aadhar done?
2. Was is disruptive for you and people around you?
3. How much bribe did you or anyone you know pay?
4. Did the BJP government fall because Aadhar caused a lot of pain all around for no "visible" gain?

Think for yourself and you will get your answer. Rest if all fear mongering.

Btw, note further ...

1. NRC Assam was a court ordered process
2. NCR nationwide will be GOI designed process which already has such a massive exercise behind it .. YES the Aadhar enrollment. It will tweak the Aadhar process with the NRC requirements and Assam learning experience.

How fickle is memory and how easily we stop thinking for our-self and how easily we are swayed by half facts.


Fair enough saar, as long as the process is indeed as hassle free as Aadhar. But on the other hand, that will also defeat the purpose of NRC as even BDs got Aadhar etc.
I am not claiming I have a solution. I am just hoping that the process is seamless for genuines but at the same time is able to get the illegals in the net. It is a tough task indeed and I do not envy the government. They will be booed by some of their own supporters too.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 18:33

Picklu wrote:
pankajs wrote:1. Fix a cutoff date such that families immediate (father, mother, brother, sister, uncle, etc) can still be identified back in Bangladesh.
2. Have a nationwide NRC with the above cutoff date.
3. Fix a slightly liberal documentation requirement as compared to Assam's.
4. Deport the BDs who can be identified clearly. BD recently stated that they are willing to take back their citizens AND deportation is legal and ethical globally. Shouldn't create any foreign policy issues.
5. Clear cases get added to the NRC database.
6. Doubtful cases can be given long-term work Visa like permit pending 2nd level verification.
7. Anyone clearing the 2nd level verification will automatically get into NRC else if they are conclusively proven to having BD citizenship will get deported back at a later date.
8. Ensure very strict quality control on the government side. Experience from Assam will help and with Modi/Shah we can expect efficiency.
9. Link all public and private services to NRC validation forcing everyone, no matter how hard they try, to have a NRC query run against then at least once a year.

The threat of nationwide NRC will force most recent migrants to go back. Those who remain thinking of working the system will be weeded out sooner or later by the service linkage.

The tricky question is for those who have been here for more than a generation. Someone who is himself 40+ in age with children 20+ age but who have not know BD will be the most disadvantaged. Plus such grownup children will have no record in BD. GOI will have to grant them citizenship because we cant make people stateless.

BD's have declared that they will take back their citizens so anyone who can be identified should be pushed back. We can't have a general amnesty.


Not sure whether you realize it or not but you are essentially stating the same things as I said but you are stating this without the numbers to avoid the scrutiny.

1. "slightly" liberal documentation requirement as compared to Assam's is I have also said, you just have avoided giving numbers unlike me because as I said, the then the stark numbers present the real problem. About BD accepting, well, no nation on earth can decline receiving deported citizens, the trick is to prove they are citizen of the origin country. Proving some not Indian is not same as proving they are BD. Please put the numbers of US deportation and try to compare with the number of illegal BDs in India.
2. Doubtful cases can be given long-term work Visa like permit pending 2nd level verification. and Ensure very strict quality control on the government side. well, we all have seen how that has turned out in Assam which had a BJP state govt with absolute star performers like Sonowal and HBS. They are not incompetent in any margin. And this has nothing to do with efficiency of NaMo or AS either. The things of such magnitude are simply not achievable in a short term with quality. We have seen how despite best effort Namami Gange and Swatch Bharat still have lot of miles to cover. And in this case, we are talking of genuine non muslim indian citizens getting extorted and suffering in the hand of NRC stuff.
3. About your faith in NRC query and linking to solve the problem, well remember GST was to do something similar remove corruptions in business. We all know how that has solved the corruption problem. Same would be the case of illegals. Check who are suffering in GST and you know why the fear of legitimate non-muslim citizens suffering is real. They all will get added for 2nd level verification. And would remain there. And would keep on getting extorted. Without any say in election or the other political process. Once father gets cleared, the son will be added. Just like it happened in Assam NRC - parents and some children are included and some one child excluded. There are so many way to extort.
4. Somehow you have become convinced about the infallibility of NRC process. To you, anyone excluded in NRC must be a BD, no scope for false negative. You do not trust me, fine. Talk to any statistician of RW inclination if it so pleases you. Given the track record of data maintenance in our nation, there is no way to avoid large number of false positives and false negatives simultaneously. And for false negatives, trying to push them back to BD is going to be disastrous from every which way. So, the only way is to reduce false negatives(Indians getting caught as illegal), which will shoot up false positive(illegal BDs getting in as bonafide indian) and that's the ONLY way forward as any statistician would tell you.

It is madness to do the same thing repeatedly and expect better result when things are so fundamentally wrong from a scientific perspective. The current NRC process didn't work in Assam and without significantly changing the citizenship identification criteria, it would not work on PAN India basis.

1. There is a way to prove direct citizenship for the BDs at least and one reason Modi/Shah are confident. That is all I will say now but people will start hearing about it when deportation starts because, as you yourself pointed out, Bangladesh wouldn't accept otherwise.

2. Assam process was court mandated where as Aadhar process was designed and implemented by Modi and with success. Remember, it too involved documentation. Modi will tweak the Aadhar process with NRC requirements and Assam learning experience. Aadhar waa a fairly massive but streamlined operation.

3. My references is Aadhar and not GST. Aadhar was a similar exercise on a similar scale though less complicated.

4. Later cutoff date coupled with lower threshold will ensure very minimal "false negative" while negatives will really be negative. We can afford a greater false positive that can be weeded out later and we would still net millions instead of you suggested 5-15K. The ideal is to get everyone who is genuine into a db so that could be frozen. The people who did not show up in Assam went somewhere else perhaps in the rest of India. The idea is to get push them out permanently from all over India and lock the db.

Again, Last time process was designed by the courts but this time it will be designed by GOI with its experience of Aadhar rollout plus Assam learning. This wouldn't be the same process deployed in Assam.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 18:39

Picklu wrote:
pankajs wrote:Tell me saar

1. Did you get Aadhar done?
2. Was is disruptive for you and people around you?
3. How much bribe did you or anyone you know pay?
4. Did the BJP government fall because Aadhar caused a lot of pain all around for no "visible" gain?

Think for yourself and you will get your answer. Rest if all fear mongering.

Btw, note further ...

1. NRC Assam was a court ordered process
2. NCR nationwide will be GOI designed process which already has such a massive exercise behind it .. YES the Aadhar enrollment. It will tweak the Aadhar process with the NRC requirements and Assam learning experience.

How fickle is memory and how easily we stop thinking for our-self and how easily we are swayed by half facts.


Aadhaar is not a proof of citizenship and it is quite easy to get aadhaar. The processes are not comparable at all. Aadhaar becomes painful only when strict lineage verification becomes mandatory. Hence my recommendation of seeding NRC/NPR whatever you call it, with the current aadhaar data with lenient verification to take away the pain.

You want to compare with a painful process? Trying running demonitization for a period of 3 years and see how the govt fares.

And 3 years is actually less when it comes to NRC.

Aadhar is not citizenship or NRC is true BUT Aadhar was all Indian level "document" based enrollment that was rolled out successfully by GOI.

The Aadhar process will form the backbone, tweaked for the requirements of NRC and tweaked further based on the learning of Assam NRC. IIRC, GOI had pleaded with Supreme courts to give them a free hand rather than a court mandated process. GOI knew the process was not optimal or scalable as it proved in the end.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Dec 2019 18:43

IMO, the porous border is like a porous membrane. The migration across is should be a function of the pressure differential and the concentration differential.

Thus, tighter enforcement on Indian side will basically deter all but the most desperate - and the terrorists/ criminals. Plus, jaabs on the other side to reduce the need to migrate into hostile territory.

The trouble (in both Khanistan and Modistan) is that the Usual Quarters will scream against tighter enforcement, and against the wall/fence. I understand that. And CIS raids are no fun.

As for extortion and bribe, well... a few Encounters maybe where Baboon are misphortunately terminated... Again, that prroblem is not solved by Walls, but by the ED, FCRA, GST and Real Estate enforcement with Aadhar. Problem as old as Hyoomanity. I was reading the other din about the Honnorabal Governor of Jamaica under Charles II - he was called James The Tenth for the same reason as "Dus berjenti" Zardari. Appointment as Secretary to the Governor was considered mega-lucrative, and given as reward to husbands whose wives had been "favored" by His Majesty's Erect Mijjile. British Sense of Justice. Values.

As you say, numbers already inside is in the karods. So have to incentivize, rather than pick and expel each. Have to set up reverse diffusion, so Open Baarder is actually a boon: they can leave the same way they came in.

Setting up legit economic activity on the other side is of course double-edged: it will cut exports and increase imports (of goods). But this is not a zero-sum game if there is development on both sides: maybe BOTH exports and imports will rise, the guvrmands taking a GST cut on both sides.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 16 Dec 2019 19:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 18:58

pankajs wrote:
Picklu wrote:
Not sure whether you realize it or not but you are essentially stating the same things as I said but you are stating this without the numbers to avoid the scrutiny.

1. "slightly" liberal documentation requirement as compared to Assam's is I have also said, you just have avoided giving numbers unlike me because as I said, the then the stark numbers present the real problem. About BD accepting, well, no nation on earth can decline receiving deported citizens, the trick is to prove they are citizen of the origin country. Proving some not Indian is not same as proving they are BD. Please put the numbers of US deportation and try to compare with the number of illegal BDs in India.
2. Doubtful cases can be given long-term work Visa like permit pending 2nd level verification. and Ensure very strict quality control on the government side. well, we all have seen how that has turned out in Assam which had a BJP state govt with absolute star performers like Sonowal and HBS. They are not incompetent in any margin. And this has nothing to do with efficiency of NaMo or AS either. The things of such magnitude are simply not achievable in a short term with quality. We have seen how despite best effort Namami Gange and Swatch Bharat still have lot of miles to cover. And in this case, we are talking of genuine non muslim indian citizens getting extorted and suffering in the hand of NRC stuff.
3. About your faith in NRC query and linking to solve the problem, well remember GST was to do something similar remove corruptions in business. We all know how that has solved the corruption problem. Same would be the case of illegals. Check who are suffering in GST and you know why the fear of legitimate non-muslim citizens suffering is real. They all will get added for 2nd level verification. And would remain there. And would keep on getting extorted. Without any say in election or the other political process. Once father gets cleared, the son will be added. Just like it happened in Assam NRC - parents and some children are included and some one child excluded. There are so many way to extort.
4. Somehow you have become convinced about the infallibility of NRC process. To you, anyone excluded in NRC must be a BD, no scope for false negative. You do not trust me, fine. Talk to any statistician of RW inclination if it so pleases you. Given the track record of data maintenance in our nation, there is no way to avoid large number of false positives and false negatives simultaneously. And for false negatives, trying to push them back to BD is going to be disastrous from every which way. So, the only way is to reduce false negatives(Indians getting caught as illegal), which will shoot up false positive(illegal BDs getting in as bonafide indian) and that's the ONLY way forward as any statistician would tell you.

It is madness to do the same thing repeatedly and expect better result when things are so fundamentally wrong from a scientific perspective. The current NRC process didn't work in Assam and without significantly changing the citizenship identification criteria, it would not work on PAN India basis.

1. There is a way to prove direct citizenship for the BDs at least and one reason Modi/Shah are confident. That is all I will say now but people will start hearing about it when deportation starts because, as you yourself pointed out, Bangladesh wouldn't accept otherwise.

2. Assam process was court mandated where as Aadhar process was designed and implemented by Modi and with success. Remember, it too involved documentation. Modi will tweak the Aadhar process with NRC requirements and Assam learning experience. Aadhar waa a fairly massive but streamlined operation.

3. My references is Aadhar and not GST. Aadhar was a similar exercise on a similar scale though less complicated.

4. Later cutoff date coupled with lower threshold will ensure very minimal "false negative" while negatives will really be negative. We can afford a greater false positive that can be weeded out later and we would still net millions instead of you suggested 5-15K. The ideal is to get everyone who is genuine into a db so that could be frozen. The people who did not show up in Assam went somewhere else perhaps in the rest of India. The idea is to get push them out permanently from all over India and lock the db.

Again, Last time process was designed by the courts but this time it will be designed by GOI with its experience of Aadhar rollout plus Assam learning. This wouldn't be the same process deployed in Assam.


And we are coming closure to an agreement as you move away from Assam process and criteria.

1. Ok, fair enough if you say there is a way. It is not that i do not believe you but i would remain skeptical as I do not see how. And you are agreeing that without such "magical" process, Bangaldesh won't accept. If the number is high and bangladesh does not accept, it would be a higher security risk to identify them as illegal and then holding them in India.

2. Aadhaar was streamlined because the lineage requirement was not there. Again, there has to be something pretty "magical" to do both - streamlined and lineage verification. For example, instead of 1971, let the cutoff year be 1987 or 2004. That would be lenient. The lineage verification burden would be reduced making the process streamlined. Only downside is, the illegals would need to get a birth certificate or ration card or coop bank account from non digitized panchayats and municipalities of any non BJP states in india. Btw, you would notice that from the very beginning I have advocated to seed this NRC/NPR whatever with Aadhaar but with lenient criteria. If you expound on exact what tweaks you are suggesting, we can discuss further but else there is no concrete suggestion from your end in terms of criteria other than some "magical" tweak for NRC.

3. I gave you the reason why Aadhaar is not apple to apple comparison. The GST reference was to show that despite best intentions and absolutely star performers like NaMo, Jet Li, Goyal et all, things may not work out as fast as you are expecting and lot of corruption can continue and lot of good guys may suffer. Here in NRC the consequences for good guys are going to be horrendous.

4. Sir, again, ask a statistician. First applying a lax criteria, put them in a DB and later a strict criteria would have achieved simultaneous reduction of false positive and false negative. This is not possible in the scientific world we live in. Lot of brilliant and genius mathematician and statistician has tried and failed to achieve that. Won't work. Once they get in the DB; that's it. The moment you open the DB for later verification once again to identify false positives, you are going to invite false negatives once again. So, the point of lenient treatment remains. For perpetuity, if you want false negatives to remain low. Again, do not trust me, ask a statistician. There are enough in this forum itself and update you whether what i am saying is right or not.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Yagnasri » 16 Dec 2019 19:04

Most of the BD land will be under water is the sea levels raise in the next 50 years. Al ready the density of the population there is much more than many nations including us. There is no practical way to have a border wall or even fence considering the nature of the local land. Added to this massive wahabi "education" is doing on there for decades.

With all this just imagine what kind of long time threat they pose to our nation.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 19:10

Picklu wrote:
pankajs wrote:a. Deport the one identified as BDs at least. BD has agreed to take back its citizens.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 692482.cms
Willing to take back our citizens, if any, illegally staying ..

b. Illegals are deported all over the world including from the US. Plus "positive discrimination" is part of the basic structure of the Indian constitution and I, for once, wouldn't mind the airing a bit of our dirty laundry globally. I would like GOI to go out and privately explain to governments around the globe how skewed the Indian constitution is against the Hindus. Perfect opportunity to sensitize the world governments to coming changes in the Indian constitution to make it truly secular.

c. Spending is not really an issue if we can clean the system. GOI, will obviously have to step up its game as far as corruption is concerned. You shouldn't worry about the internal political fallout of the NRC. Modi/Shah will know their politics better than us. Let them worry whether Indians are ready for NRC.

Last 2 point is more fear mongering, 1st in the name of "what will the world say" to which we have our constitutional defense and 2nd in the name of Indian people to which I say let Modi/Shah worry about the political fallout.


You may term it fear "mongering" but there are 12 lakh hindu in assam who has lived through the hell and the fear of repeating the same with crores of indians are very much "real".

Now instead of talking in generic terms, why don't you put what's your estimate of identified BD would be via the process you are suggesting?

And put some source and reasoning behind the estimate.

I have put publicly available sources AND quoted them for easy reference in my posts. Have given all the reasoning behind the extrapolations also. It's only fair that you do the same instead of accusing others to mislead via half truth.
I have highlighted my own comments that was clear enough what I consider "fear mongering" i.e "what will the world say" AND "political fallout" within India. Let GOI worry on both counts.

Fear of Hindus in Assam was valid but that was before CAA. Now to the fear of Indians, both Hindus and Muslims, all over India, you yourself stated that no Bangladesh will NOT accept anyone BUT its own citizens and GOI will have to prove it.

I fully agree to that too. So anyone that Bangladesh government accepts will 100% be a Bangladeshi and Indian government will hand them over ONLY when it is sure because there is no other way. For now, leave it to GOI to figure out weed out genuine Bangladeshi. There is a very easy way especially for recent migrants. Lets watch.

Truth is ..

1. Bengladeshi, Pakistani and Afghan Hindus have protection of CAA now. No fear there.
2. Bangladesh will only accept it own citizen. That in-itself is a protection that GOI will not rush into classification. Remember, GOI asking for multiple extensions during Assam NRC the last of which was denied by the SC.
3. GOI has experience of running a document based enrollment process in Aadhar. I will be tweaked for NRC process and with Assam NRC learning.
4. GOI will probably aim to minimize false negative, that will disenfranchise genuine citizens of any religion, but still net far far more genuine illegals that you suggested. Even the highly flawed Assam one netted IIRC, 5 lakh with another 5-7 lakh that did not apply.
5. "Positive discrimination" on "religious" ground is part of the basic structure of our secular Indian constitution.
6. Modi/Shah are more competent than any of us in accessing the political impact of NRC. Leave it to them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 19:13

UlanBatori wrote:IMO, the porous border is like a porous membrane. The migration across is should be a function of the pressure differential and the concentration differential.

Thus, tighter enforcement on Indian side will basically deter all but the most desperate - and the terrorists/ criminals. Plus, jaabs on the other side to reduce the need to migrate into hostile territory.

The trouble (in both Khanistan and Modistan) is that the Usual Quarters will scream against tighter enforcement, and against the wall/fence. I understand that. And CIS raids are no fun.

As for extortion and bribe, well... a few Encounters maybe where Baboon are misphortunately terminated... Again, that prroblem is not solved by Walls, but by the ED, FCRA, GST and Real Estate enforcement with Aadhar. Problem as old as Hyoomanity. I was reading the other din about the Honnorabal Governor of Jamaica under Charles II - he was called James The Tenth for the same reason as "Dus berjenti" Zardari. Appointment as Secretary to the Governor was considered mega-lucrative, and given as reward to husbands whose wives had been "favored" by His Majesty's Erect Mijjile. British Sense of Justice. Values.

As you say, numbers already inside is in the karods. So have to incentivize, rather than pick and expel each. Have to set up reverse diffusion, so Open Baarder is actually a boon: they can leave the same way they came in.

Setting up legit economic activity on the other side is of course double-edged: it will cut exports and increase imports (of goods). But this is not a zero-sum game if there is development on both sides: maybe BOTH exports and imports will rise, the guvrmands taking a GST cut on both sides.


N3, inspite the popular belief, BD is not doing that badly compared to the bordering Indian states. The people who are coming from BD do not want to settle in bordering indian states either. They are essentially moving to much richer south, north and west india where they can earn more simply by doing maid work and construction work compared to say in a garment factory in BD or some such in Eastern part of India.

Coming from WB and staying in Namma Bengaluru, I can tell you that the earning potential of a family increases minimum 3 to 5 times when such migration happens. And lot of genuine indians from eastern india does similar internal migration for the same reason.

Any citizenship verification drive is going to hit these indians as well. The solution is to uplift the entire eastern india economically. And achieving that would be THE holy grail to solve all the problem.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 19:27

Yagnasri wrote:Most of the BD land will be under water is the sea levels raise in the next 50 years. Al ready the density of the population there is much more than many nations including us. There is no practical way to have a border wall or even fence considering the nature of the local land. Added to this massive wahabi "education" is doing on there for decades.

With all this just imagine what kind of long time threat they pose to our nation.

Truth is NRC will only be a holding operation to preserve the status quo for the medium term. Long-term .. Who knows? Will have to be a radical solution. God knows how that will happen or what form it will take. Hopefully for the sake of people on both sides of the border and our entire NE, something radical does happen in the next 30-50 years. We must always be hopeful.

The only good news is that Total fertility rate in Bangladesh is near or below the replacement rate. Hopefully not further population pressure.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 19:28

pankajs wrote:
Truth is ..

1. Bengladeshi, Pakistani and Afghan Hindus have protection of CAA now. No fear there.
2. Bangladesh will only accept it own citizen. That in-itself is a protection that GOI will not rush into classification. Remember, GOI asking for multiple extensions during Assam NRC the last of which was denied by the SC.
3. GOI has experience of running a document based enrollment process in Aadhar. I will be tweaked for NRC process and with Assam NRC learning.
4. GOI will probably aim to minimize false negative, that will disenfranchise genuine citizens of any religion, but still net far far more genuine illegals that you suggested. Even the highly flawed Assam one netted IIRC, 5 lakh with another 5-7 lakh that did not apply.
5. "Positive discrimination" on "religious" ground is part of the basic structure of our secular Indian constitution.
6. Modi/Shah are more competent than any of us in accessing the political impact of NRC. Leave it to them.


You are mentioning this positive discrimination on religious ground a few times. I do not see the relevance there as I haven't argued anything against it and welcomed it instead. Appears to be a straw-man from your end.

Positive discrimination is part and parcel of modern democracy and all affirmative actions are based on that (anti dowry law based on gender, SC/ST act in terms of race, cultural and religious protection for ethnic and religious minority in our constitution) all stem from the same and I do not have any doubt in my mind that CAB is legal. Will it pass master in SC? as the history suggests, till we have 303 and 121 on our side in parliament it would stand legal scrutiny. Once that goes, it would be the Jallikattu verdict of Justice Bhanumati.

While positive discrimination is legal, negative one is not. That won't pass master in any forum.

I have blind faith in the political and administrative competency of NaMo and Shah. However, even they can not go against the laws of maths and stats. Hence I am stating categorically that no "tweak" however "magical" to "Aadhaar enrollment process", would give a result that achieves low false positive and low false negative at the end of the process. If you give your suggestion of those tweaks, I would be happy to point out where it would break down.

In terms of netting illegal BDs, you are forgetting that there were around 40 lakh illegal estimated in Assam and it was supposed to be the easy target. All it achieved were max 5 to 7 lakh and "possibly" some extra (how much, we do not know as they didn't even apply supposedly).

All of them are sitting bang in the middle of us as there is not such mechanism happening with Bangladesh. That is a huge security risk.

If you think that they are not getting any government facility is a great savings for us, please keep in mind the real cost. These guys now have no other means of sustenance other than getting into illegal and possibly criminal activities. Being away from public health system, they will be the open ground for non vaccinated folks and incubator to all sort of eradicated disease. When they suffer epidemic, we do not escape because we are legal. Being illegal and finding a means to survive will also mean that the birth rate for these guys would sky rocket. Again, this is nothing political, just ask any statistician involving in policy forumalation and they would tell you so.

And there is no way we can put 5 lakh people in detention center and cloth and fed them.

Now imagine it goes pan india basis and 20 lakh such people get identified. You are talking of BD accepting them via some magical process. We should see that happening first with these 5 lakh illegals before we roll the NRC pan india and mark another 15 lakh in the same category.

Not only the above security and public health issue would go up many times but there will be other problems. Many tipping points would be reached when the number of illegals become 20 lakh and that many people has a lot potential to cause harm if pushed at the corner.
Last edited by Picklu on 16 Dec 2019 19:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Dec 2019 19:28

^^ Picklu
The solution is to uplift the entire eastern india economically. And achieving that would be THE holy lota to solve all the problem.


True - and absolutely critical to counter the dlagon as well. In many villages in Malloostan, most of the ppl seen outside working are "Bengali" - usually with One Commyoonity naam and maybe 6th-grade education. I wonder why this is so, if conditions are worse for yindoos than One Commyoonitty.
About 50% are really good workers, but over the years, the light in their eyes has turned in subtle ways that look terrifying. ISISification?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 16 Dec 2019 19:55

Congratulations to the Delhi Police to what I think is quick action ( relative to other situations) at the Jamia University Gate 8 vicinity.

Just saw the AAP MLA incite the mob by linking 3T etc and preparing a 1500 mob to go on rampage with stones, molotov cocktails. Students and the VC clearly say non students were involved in burning buses.

I see Republic TV videos that are different than the non sense being peddled that Police entered library for no reason and opened fire etc. Last day or so I could see the likes of D Raja and B Karat supporting "students"

I see that politicians will claim they got carried away and did not incite violence. How can we strengthen laws in universities that will automatically throw out students who commit violent acts. I see kids throwing stones or sticks in government buses purposefully in broad daylight. Now idiots in Hyderabad, Kolkata are standing with AMU etc. Like JNU idiots who claim 10 Rs hostel is their right because they have been working on a PHD for 10 years without taking exams.

We have to stop hooliganism in the pretext of being students. This needs to be delinked from CAA,NRC or anything else

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 19:58

UlanBatori wrote:^^ Picklu
The solution is to uplift the entire eastern india economically. And achieving that would be THE holy lota to solve all the problem.


True - and absolutely critical to counter the dlagon as well. In many villages in Malloostan, most of the ppl seen outside working are "Bengali" - usually with One Commyoonity naam and maybe 6th-grade education. I wonder why this is so, if conditions are worse for yindoos than One Commyoonitty.
About 50% are really good workers, but over the years, the light in their eyes has turned in subtle ways that look terrifying. ISISification?


Sir, WB has close to 30% peaceful. These folks seem to have a greater affinity to Gods own country because the percentage of peaceful, that too quite rich via "gelf" is high.

Think about it, they may come to bangalore or mumbai but they would remain in a society of 'digas or ghatis. The same reason they go to Kashmir en-mass to work on the apple orchards.

The wahhabism is the root cause. Huge amount of gelf money is getting in to madrasas beyond the control or even registration with govt. All these piecefuls are getting their education there. 2 to 3 year old girls, roaming around in shuttle cork burkha is a scary visual indeed. The hindus in the similar situation are at least educated to class 8 or 10 in a govt school. The job profiles are slightly different and the destination are not so malluland and kashmir focused.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 20:11

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 6642811904
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

#JamiaProtest, #AMUprotest: #CJI Bobde says #SupremeCourt won't be bullied, can't be held to ransom while public properties are destroyed. Just because they are students, they can't take law in their own hands, says the #CJI. SC will hear the matter tomorrow if no violent protests

If you read carefully ... CJI put the entire blame on the students and told them off ... :rotfl:

He also subtly laid down is agenda not to bend to their subtle and not so subtle pressure early in his term. LeLi gang will be very unhappy and soon start a campaign against this CJI too.

https://twitter.com/jsaideepak/status/1 ... 3305796608
Sai Deepak J @jsaideepak

CJI - we cant take this up in a hasty manner. We will look into everything with a cool mind. It's a law and order problem. Let police do what it wants to. We want peace. If you want to go to streets, you can go and protest.
Wow!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 20:36

Picklu wrote:You are mentioning this positive discrimination on religious ground a few times. I do not see the relevance there as I haven't argued anything against it and welcomed it instead. Appears to be a straw-man from your end.

Positive discrimination is part and parcel of modern democracy and all affirmative actions are based on that (anti dowry law based on gender, SC/ST act in terms of race, cultural and religious protection for ethnic and religious minority in our constitution) all stem from the same and I do not have any doubt in my mind that CAB is legal. Will it pass master in SC? as the history suggests, till we have 303 and 121 on our side in parliament it would stand legal scrutiny. Once that goes, it would be the Jallikattu verdict of Justice Bhanumati.

While positive discrimination is legal, negative one is not. That won't pass master in any forum.

posting.php?mode=quote&f=1&p=2400925
Picklu wrote:b. Our per capita income is still in one of the lower slabs in the world and like it or not, we are desperately in the need of foreign capital. How are we going to handle the global pressure that will for sure mount on us for such a religiously coloured weeding of possibly bonafide citizens? Remember, we are not talking about only the middle east and the elite left lib sicular gang of OECD countries but even the common honest folks who would also definitely not agree to disfranchise bonafide citizens based on religion. And in this case, to the global audience, everyone is bonafide even if some documents are missing until and unless they are proven illegal beyond all doubt.


Picklu wrote:In terms of netting illegal BDs, you are forgetting that there were around 40 lakh illegal estimated in Assam and it was supposed to be the easy target. All it achieved were max 5 to 7 lakh and "possibly" some extra (how much, we do not know as they didn't even apply supposedly).

All of them are sitting bang in the middle of us as there is not such mechanism happening with Bangladesh. That is a huge security risk.

If you think that they are not getting any government facility is a great savings for us, please keep in mind the real cost. These guys now have no other means of sustenance other than getting into illegal and possibly criminal activities. Being away from public health system, they will be the open ground for non vaccinated folks and incubator to all sort of eradicated disease. When they suffer epidemic, we do not escape because we are legal. Being illegal and finding a means to survive will also mean that the birth rate for these guys would sky rocket. Again, this is nothing political, just ask any statistician involving in policy forumalation and they would tell you so.

And there is no way we can put 5 lakh people in detention center and cloth and fed them.

Now imagine it goes pan india basis and 20 lakh such people get identified. You are talking of BD accepting them via some magical process. We should see that happening first with these 5 lakh illegals before we roll the NRC pan india and mark another 15 lakh in the same category.

Not only the above security and public health issue would go up many times but there will be other problems. Many tipping points would be reached when the number of illegals become 20 lakh and that many people has a lot potential to cause harm if pushed at the corner.

1. 5 to 7 lakh detected and 5-7lakh that did not show up .. much better than a general amnesty for all except for the jihadi that will only net 5-15k per you, IIRC.
2. Link every public and private service to NRC DB. At some point they will need to touch a NRC net at least once a year. 2 crore people just cannot vanish when everyone rest are on the network and all transaction are being logged unless they are wholly subsist on charity in goods.School, Madarsa, Hospital, Railway, Phone, Burial record, etc. somewhere some record will pop up that will not compute. Then they can be tagged and traced.
3. The current lot of detention centers are built at SC's direction. I haven't heard GOI talk detention centers yet.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 16 Dec 2019 20:41

Picklu, you need to cool down and not get hysterical. My family are refugees from Narayanganj in Bdesh. Part of family still in Bdesh. Plenty of close family still in Kolkata. Everyone of us will be submitting documentation for NRC.

As for the 1.2 million Bengali/Bdeshi Hindus those reports are uncited sources. The figure that I quoted of 5 lakh 40 thousand is from the Finance minister's mouth. So my source is better than yours unless you now claim the minister is lying. Have seen plenty of reports of Bdeshi Hindu refugees after the CAB bill has been passed and they are all happy. They will now be legally Indian citizens.

Plenty of Bengali media now reporting that people have started crossing the border to Bdesh in large numbers. They are paying 5000 rupees per head. There is now a labor shortage starting to emerge in border areas of WB. This is the reason why Bdesh minister has made the statement. They don't want a situation where they are not in control of whoever is entering or re-entering Bdesh. Bdesh should be told once the final NRC list is prepared the names of those excluded will be shared with them.

I repeat again an estimated 2.5 million people in Assam have not applied for NRC. They are either bogus entities meant to inflate numbers or have moved to other parts of India or have self-deported to Bdesh. With the right kind of pressure there will be mass self-deportation and the number of people who will require formal deportation will be much less.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 20:46

https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status ... 3948863489
Times of India @timesofindia

#JamiaProtest - SC says if students believe in going to street and indulge in violence, then they shouldn't come to court. "We can't be bullied in this manner to hear this matter," SC told sr advs Indira Jaising and Colin Gonsalves who appeared for students of Jamia Milia and AMU
Good!

https://twitter.com/AatishTaseer/status ... 1710903302
Aatish Taseer @AatishTaseer

Shah and Modi are two men whose careers have been built on the strategic deployment of chaos. They thrive on the darkling energy spreading through India. If it’s a question of believing them, or the students of Jamia, my vote goes for Jamia every single time.
Gyan sitting from US.
Last edited by pankajs on 16 Dec 2019 20:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 16 Dec 2019 20:52

One of the things that gets my goat is that SC has opened its door for all sorts of suits and cases.
It has come down to the level of Sessions courts and yet they keep entertaining all sorts of frivolous cases/PIL/bail applications etc.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 21:23

pankajs wrote:Not only the above security and public health issue would go up many times but there will be other problems. Many tipping points would be reached when the number of illegals become 20 lakh and that many people has a lot potential to cause harm if pushed at the corner.

1. 5 to 7 lakh detected and 5-7lakh that did not show up .. much better than a general amnesty for all except for the jihadi that will only net 5-15k per you, IIRC.
2. Link every public and private service to NRC DB. At some point they will need to touch a NRC net at least once a year. 2 crore people just cannot vanish when everyone rest are on the network and all transaction are being logged unless they are wholly subsist on charity in goods.School, Madarsa, Hospital, Railway, Phone, Burial record, etc. somewhere some record will pop up that will not compute. Then they can be tagged and traced.
3. The current lot of detention centers are built at SC's direction. I haven't heard GOI talk detention centers yet.[/quote]

I have told that negative discrimination won't pass master and I stand by on that. My example was negative discrimination which Darshan suggested via ideological alignment of NRC stuff. I still do not see the relevance of stating positive discrimination is valid. Off course it is valid. None said otherwise :)

All your 3 points are for the interim state. That is the 5 lakh illegals are identified and remains in India amidst us. That's not the end goal. If things remain in that way, that's far worse than identifying 5-10k illegal and then keeping them in jail. The reason for the same I have already explained above.

If the end goal is that these illegals need to go back to Bangladesh, I am not seeing any such magic as you are suggesting. BD is not accepting anyone from those 5 lakh that's excluded in Assam NRC. They are NOT going to self deport either in any large number because the income differential (between BD and north, west, south india, not east) is just way to high. They would simply trade a part of the income differential as bribe money. That's exactly what is happening and that's what will happen.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 16 Dec 2019 21:45

^^
Why don't you wait for the end goal that Modi/Shah have in mind. As far as Assam is concerned ...

1. NRC is blotched and incomplete from Modi/Shah pov.
2. For those identified as illegals, there is a process of appeals and courts that will have its say before India can fully mark them out a illegals.

Yes we are in the interim states and you should know that if you have followed the Assam NRC for any reason. There is no question of bypassing the legal process to deport. Deportation date will come too but only AFTER all the legal process is complete and appeals are disposed.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 22:14

Supratik wrote:Picklu, you need to cool down and not get hysterical. My family are refugees from Narayanganj in Bdesh. Part of family still in Bdesh. Plenty of close family still in Kolkata. Everyone of us will be submitting documentation for NRC.

As for the 1.2 million Bengali/Bdeshi Hindus those reports are uncited sources. The figure that I quoted of 5 lakh 40 thousand is from the Finance minister's mouth. So my source is better than yours unless you now claim the minister is lying. Have seen plenty of reports of Bdeshi Hindu refugees after the CAB bill has been passed and they are all happy. They will now be legally Indian citizens.


I would like to verify that source if you do not mind. You have not given the link and provided the approx minute when that's said. Video files, unlike text can not be searched. So no way for me to verify "exactly what was said" other than spending lot of time on searching for that video and watch end to end to find out if the statement is even there or not.

I have a reason to be skeptical. Check the wordings here:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 465093.cms
and here
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 20631.html
both quoted HBS as well as Sarbanand Sonowal.

The term used has been 5 lakh "Hindu migrants from Bangladesh" by HBS. In both the reports there is also section that Sarbanand Sonowal has specified 2 lakh "Bengali Hindu".

You would agree that it does not close the door of remaining of 19 lakh to be muslim. Rather there are lot of other categories like Coach, Rajbangshi, Gorkha, Santhal and so on. The Finance or Chief minister do not need to "Lie" to reconcile with the other figure being published.

And in no way I am stating HBS and SS are fibbing. Far from it. They have taken extremely courageous stand to go through CAB despite knowing popular anger in their political domain. True leadership.

But it does not prove that more than 7 lakh muslim were caught on Assam NRC and the rest are not hindus (a large part is bengali speaking but other categories also exist).

Supratik wrote:Plenty of Bengali media now reporting that people have started crossing the border to Bdesh in large numbers. They are paying 5000 rupees per head. There is now a labor shortage starting to emerge in border areas of WB. This is the reason why Bdesh minister has made the statement. They don't want a situation where they are not in control of whoever is entering or re-entering Bdesh. Bdesh should be told once the final NRC list is prepared the names of those excluded will be shared with them.


One of the perks of studying engineering in a college with hostel is that you get friends from all districts of WB. Many of them comes from extremely poor background, via reservation. Yes, quite a few from border states. And they are all active in whatsapp group.

So, no need to depend only on the media about these things. The IN as well as OUT is a year round phenomena. Just like the smuggling of phensedyl, currency and gold. The illegals who are here still have relatives etc on the other side. They have even business linkages. And yes, it costs between 1000 and 5000 per head based on the season. Lot crosses back to Bangladesh during Eid and it does cost around 5000 in that time. Coming back during Durga Puja also costs around the same.

Instead of depending on that bengali media, you would do well to keep your ear in the ground in any of the indian metro in the maid network. You would have known that Bengali media is reporting things around 2/3 month in lag in this case. Yes, there were a crossing back to BD during that time on the fear of NRC might get implemented. However, they didn't go to cross over permanently; they went to spend some time there as they were not sure again when they will be able to go. They had every intention of coming back before NRC started and they did.

Check the maid network now; it is back to the previous level. Any media that's still broadcasting about illegals self deporting simply want to continue the "dara hua mussalmaan" narrative.

Supratik wrote:I repeat again an estimated 2.5 million people in Assam have not applied for NRC. They are either bogus entities meant to inflate numbers or have moved to other parts of India or have self-deported to Bdesh. With the right kind of pressure there will be mass self-deportation and the number of people who will require formal deportation will be much less.


3.29 crore appeared for NRC in Assam.
From here,
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/a ... 2019-08-31

What is the source of this 3.55(3.3 crore plus 2.5 mil) crore population estimate for Assam? Appears to be bogus entity. 2011 census gave 3.09 crore population in Assam and as of today 3.4 Crore is the max estimated figure I have seen.

I am highly doubtful about any self deportation in meaningful numbers because:
a. If they can self deport, they can easily come back given the porous border (hence my suggestion of sealing it first)
b. It is far more lucrative to stay here and bribe their way out than going back.

Does that mean there won't be any self deportation? Off course not. A few lakh pan india basis would self deport. However, it would be miniscule compared to the total number of illegals staying here.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Dec 2019 22:19

pankajs wrote:^^
Why don't you wait for the end goal that Modi/Shah have in mind. As far as Assam is concerned ...

1. NRC is blotched and incomplete from Modi/Shah pov.
2. For those identified as illegals, there is a process of appeals and courts that will have its say before India can fully mark them out a illegals.

Yes we are in the interim states and you should know that if you have followed the Assam NRC for any reason. There is no question of bypassing the legal process to deport. Deportation date will come too but only AFTER all the legal process is complete and appeals are disposed.


Fair enough. Let's wait and see. As far as I see, the Assam NRC has been a botched operation and already discarded by the state BJP and NaMo and AS as well. So, other than making these guys go round and round in court, not exactly sure what was achieved and what further we will gain by rolling this in pan india basis.

Yes, as agreed, significant tweak would be required to ensure the failures are not repeated.

vijayk
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 16 Dec 2019 22:26

CJI by unequivocally rejecting Jihadi and their media agents claims sent a strong message to rioters. Won't be tolerated. I am sure after 2022 when another one takes over, life won't be that easy.


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