2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 21:39

nits wrote:This is escalating fast, 6 deaths in UP today... To stop all rumours and ill information what is stopping AS or NM to address Nation and present the facts and calm the nerves...

What makes you think it a national address will calm things down? Shah presented facts in the parliament and in recent interviews on multiple channels and yet we are here.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 20 Dec 2019 21:43

If Modi Ji could go ahead and implement Demon which disturbed his core vote bank, Do you think he will bend over backwards to placate the anti-nationals and Urban Naxals who are playing this game of Russian roulette ?
Outside Islamists, Bollyturds and Urban Naxals, How many actually care about CAA or NRC or oppose it.

CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 20 Dec 2019 21:44

pankajs wrote:On Duktha Butt bibi making "Sheros" out of jihadis, I think Butt bibi wanted to discover the Linda Sarsour of India. Our liberandus have these deep seated urge to copy the west.

Butt bibi could herself have become a hijabi but she did not want to get slotted/bracketed so she was always in search of "Sheros". The moment she found these girls, she knew she had hit jackpot and latched on to them immediately without doing any background check.

Alas, for her, her "Sheros" turned out to be jihadis instead of just hijabis and that too they were exposed within 24 hours. I think time is about right for Butt bibi to herself don the Hijab and become that which she is seeking.


My friend, the first law of publications is that you cite somebody else who made the same claim as you did but before you did :-). Just kidding. This is exactly what I also observed.

viewtopic.php?p=2401362#p2401362

This whole f!king libarandu gang are cheap imitations of their white counterparts. Or else, you would see Burka bibi write about Lynching after Muslim terror past few days masquerading as 'protests'. Man, its a disgrace what a people we are to see cops being pelted with stones and lynched for doing their duty. And all that the so called 'intelligentsia' can muster is ModiJi 'stifling dissent'. In fact, another pompous stolen-from-the-west phase by liberandus is 'post truth world'. What we witnessed from the pens of librandus is exactly this, post truth. Violent jihadi louts cast as 'peaceful protesters' and their terror as 'democratic dissent'.

I think these bogus protests will come to a screeching halt of BJP wins Jharkand. Anything short of that, Libranadus will spin that as 'opposition to CAA and NRC', and violent protests will only intensify.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5514
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 20 Dec 2019 21:45

any news on jharkand exit polls?

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 20 Dec 2019 21:45

Nothing to worry except for WB rest of the areas are M dominated or have heavy presence of illegals and people know that e.g. everyone in Delhi knows that east Delhi is a hotbed of illegals. People are not fools. They will understand who all is behind it. The PM or HM coming on TV will mean pressure tactics have worked. They have seen much worse in GJ.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 20 Dec 2019 21:46

Jharkhand looks like BJP will loose. The choice of CMs in states haven't been good with a couple of exceptions.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 20 Dec 2019 21:46

pankajs wrote:
nits wrote:This is escalating fast, 6 deaths in UP today... To stop all rumours and ill information what is stopping AS or NM to address Nation and present the facts and calm the nerves...

What makes you think it a national address will calm things down? Shah presented facts in the parliament and in recent interviews on multiple channels and yet we are here.


Very true. The Naxals and miscreants want to create chaos, violence and atmosphere of fear. They aren't interested in what NM or AS is going to say. Wait for few days and this too shall pass.
The frustration of losing on TT, Art 370 and RJB is now exploding with full vengeance.
I still think that Cops haven't shown their might to these 'almost terrorists' and fake-Indians.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 20 Dec 2019 21:48

Supratik wrote:Jharkhand looks like BJP will loose. The choice of CMs in states haven't been good with a couple of exceptions.


Per Ramana Ji, BJP will form the govt and he hardly is ever wrong with his predictions.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 21:58

Modi/Shah have this "image" of "unbeatable duo", earned or cultivated, real or perceived and that image has earned him a lot of fans and vote. Plus he Modi has the image of someone who can deliver.

These and a few other attributes make them unbeatable in the current Indian politics to an extent that Modi promise of 6k was preferred over 72k by Raful in the last election.

Plus, This was before Modi had delivered on any of the the "core". Imagine the reservoir of goodwill Modi has! It is good enough to tide over 1,2 or 3 years of bad luck (e.g. current economic situation).

How do you fight a person like that politically. By making bend and break on one of his key promises publicly. IF CAB had not been announced it wouldn't have matter because his backer would know that he will get it done someday. BUT to backoff AFTER having set the ball rolling will be a major loss for Modi.

Very little chance of a roll-back on CAA plus he cannot now go back on NRC given it strategic dimensions. He can fudge around the edges a bit on NRC as I had suggested a while back as an update on someone elses post.

The way I see it, Modi/Shah will have to push ahead but NRC fudge with a NRC like census replacing NRC can be done.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 20 Dec 2019 22:00

Not so sure about it. Axis poll is predicting MGB win and they have been pretty accurate recently. The breaking up off alliance with AJSU was a mistake.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 22:17

pankajs wrote:The protest it not about CAA, which is already a law, but to prevent NRC Act from being enacted. Even if BJP does not back-off, it is to scare the other parties whose support will be needed to pass it in RS.

NRC, by itself, cannot be opposed because it will look anti-national so they have chosen to go with this and scare the hell out of the rest of the parties.

The idea is catching on ...
https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1207600416709476352
iMac_too @iMac_too

If you think THEIR violence is to intimidate the duo, you don't know THEM or the duo. They are intimidating Nitish, Palanisamy, Sukhbir, Naveen, Jagan. And results are showing
We shouldn't grudge them backing-out for now .. their support will come in when needed. :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/sumanthraman/status ... 8655221760
Sumanth @sumanthraman

This is his {Nitishwa on NRC} position as of 2.p.m. today. Maybe valid for next few hours.
eyeoooooo ... wrote the last bit before I saw this tweet. :rotfl:

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3683
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 20 Dec 2019 22:23

Dealing with BDs in GJ has been one of the items. BJP would have to let go of lot of ground to INC in GJ if there's any weakness shown by BJP in this area. BDs are foot soldiers of liquor and drug networks in the state. Irrelevant of the center, GJ state govt itself needs to show progress to not have Modi come and bail them out each time in elections.

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2579
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 20 Dec 2019 22:29

pankajs wrote:And beepul wonder why the GOI is giving them the long rope ... Given a long-enough rope, the Liberandus will fade away after having done their cat-walk and the RoPers will take center-stage. The only way to clarify the nature of protest without officially denouncing them as religiously motivated.

Disclaimer: I haven't watched TV for a while now .. just get my info from the board and twitter.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1207686558607761408
ANI @ANI

Gujarat MoS for Home, Pradeepsinh Jadeja to ANI: There were 2 incidents of violence in Ahmedabad today. Other than that there is peace in whole state. Around 50 people arrested, we are checking video footage to identify those who were involved, strict action will be taken. #CAA


Not much of a victory but still worthwhile fight ...
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/the-qui ... mia-video/
Facebook removes The Quint’s “fact-check” where they had declared the ‘Hinduon se Azadi’ video as fake


We must separate chaff from wheat or risk loosing perspective which would be followed by paranoia and group eco-chamber thinking.

There is nothing wrong or illegal on that slogan, they fear Hindu domination so they are protesting against it in a peaceful democratic manner. That is how it should be and we must welcome and encourage it?!?!

I subscribe to the well established doctrine of democratic functioning that Protestors must have unequivocal right to be completely wrong (seen from any POV, logic, culture), without that right (to be wrong) the right to freedom Of speech, dissent ands peaceful protests become meaningless. This than only leaves the violence, rioting and anarchy as alternate tool for people.

I request that the forum must rise above petty stuffs Floating around the net and really dig deep to identify the really rotten meat that we can use now and later once this Protest is over.

Look for Violence, anti India slogans, bigoted anti Hindu comments, lies and incitement to violence, pro Pakistan and ISIS gazwa etc.......well you all are more learned moulanas than a minor talib like me.
Last edited by Katare on 20 Dec 2019 22:33, edited 1 time in total.

nits
BRFite
Posts: 1025
Joined: 01 May 2006 22:56
Location: Some where near Equator...

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nits » 20 Dec 2019 22:30

pankajs wrote:
nits wrote:This is escalating fast, 6 deaths in UP today... To stop all rumours and ill information what is stopping AS or NM to address Nation and present the facts and calm the nerves...

What makes you think it a national address will calm things down? Shah presented facts in the parliament and in recent interviews on multiple channels and yet we are here.


There is a difference between AS in Parliament and NM on national television and it will have its due impact... If solution is nothing to do and attitude of this shall also pass thats hoping that problem will resolve on its own and till that let cop bear the brunt and people die...

I support CAA before this discussion turns into a brickbat

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 20 Dec 2019 22:39

He has already given interviews to TV channels where he has clearly explained what CAA is about. Nothing more to do except contain the violence. As some posters have mentioned this is not about CAA but about the series of events from TTT, Art 370, J&K reorg, RJB, NRC, CAA. The ground is slipping from under their feet and the project of establishing Nizam-e-mustafa under the patronage of Indian political facilitators is facing its toughest challenge. Further, next is going to come UCC, Freedom of religion bill, POK. Even secularism and socialism which was not there in the original constitution and was put there unconstitutionally can be removed by presidential order. It is a doomsday scenario for them.

Larry Walker
BRFite
Posts: 327
Joined: 26 Nov 2019 17:33

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Larry Walker » 20 Dec 2019 22:39

Whatever sympathy the guilt-tripped Hindus had for Muslims against the CAA+NRC is now poof. I am not sure whats the end result that these liberandu's are aiming for. CAA will not be rolled-back - and if NRC is watered down and does not throw up as many illegals as there is a general belief -it will just prove further that MAD are not anti-Muslims - but Muslims for sure are anti-Hindu and anti-India. This is Chakravyuh of Mahabharat level setup by MAD to destroy the enemies of this country - once for all.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 22:42

nits wrote:
pankajs wrote:What makes you think it a national address will calm things down? Shah presented facts in the parliament and in recent interviews on multiple channels and yet we are here.


There is a difference between AS in Parliament and NM on national television and it will have its due impact... If solution is nothing to do and attitude of this shall also pass thats hoping that problem will resolve on its own and till that let cop bear the brunt and people die...

I support CAA before this discussion turns into a brickbat
You did not even care to read one full sentence!

AS spoke not only in the parliament but also gave multiple interviews Plus,
nits wrote:This is escalating fast, 6 deaths in UP today... To stop all rumours and ill information what is stopping AS or NM to address Nation and present the facts and calm the nerves...
You asked for AS OR NM to address the nation. AS addresses the issues via multiple recent interviews on National television.

Isn't that what you wanted as conveyed via your post?
Last edited by pankajs on 20 Dec 2019 22:43, edited 1 time in total.

banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 354
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 20 Dec 2019 22:42

recognizing your own persecuted people is a civilizational step. First time in a 1000 years? As a people Indians turned their back on those at the mercy of invaders, excommunicating them at the drop-off a hat earning their well earned hared.

Still I think the CAA was poorly worded and has eroded immediate leverage for NRC. It's going to be an uphill task and every step will be met with hysteria. How do they get out of this?

As for West Bengal, it's the worst affected. the people have big decisions on their hands.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 20 Dec 2019 22:43

Not to mention Hindus turning and voting saffron in large numbers. That is getting their goat. Only about 15% of the 80% Hindus are voting for them currently. Nearly 45% are voting for NDA and the rest for regional non-BIF parties.

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2579
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 20 Dec 2019 22:46

Here is how I see it-

Govt should not backdown, not even an inch, on either issues because that could lead to the end of the hindutwa agenda of Modi-Raj.

Modi backtracked on land reform bill in his first term when opposition led protest started. He is still paying the price for it in underperforming economy. After that the second generation structural reforms never really took off limiting reforms to, still significant but mostly good governance, already in pipeline (GST) or non-political like Bankruptcy law.

Go forward or Loose it all !

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55363
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 20 Dec 2019 22:47


pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 22:48

Katare wrote:
pankajs wrote:<snip>Not much of a victory but still worthwhile fight ...
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/the-qui ... mia-video/
Facebook removes The Quint’s “fact-check” where they had declared the ‘Hinduon se Azadi’ video as fake


We must separate chaff from wheat or risk loosing perspective which would be followed by paranoia and group eco-chamber thinking.

There is nothing wrong or illegal on that slogan, they fear Hindu domination so they are protesting against it in a peaceful democratic manner. That is how it should be and we must welcome and encourage it?!?!

I subscribe to the well established doctrine of democratic functioning that Protestors must have unequivocal right to be completely wrong (seen from any POV, logic, culture), without that right (to be wrong) the right to freedom Of speech, dissent ands peaceful protests become meaningless. This than only leaves the violence, rioting and anarchy as alternate tool for people.

I request that the forum must rise above petty stuffs Floating around the net and really dig deep to identify the really rotten meat that we can use now and later once this Protest is over.

Look for Violence, anti India slogans, bigoted anti Hindu comments, lies and incitement to violence, pro Pakistan and ISIS gazwa etc.......well you all are more learned moulanas than a minor talib like me.

You mean "Musalmano se Azadi" is an acceptable slogan from Hindus?!!

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24866
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 20 Dec 2019 22:55

watch the video and see how the termites have spread

Modi, Omith Sho Murdobod..!
Shoiton, Birodhi..!
Guess the language - Bengali.
Guess the place ? Parakkadavu, Kerala.

Now you know how serious the problem of illegal Bangladeshi is.. !
#CAA
#NRC_CAA



https://twitter.com/oldhandhyd/status/1207955118022201345

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3683
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 20 Dec 2019 22:56

Every single BJP spokesperson should be mentioning real examples of people that were persecuted. Hindus, Christians, etc.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 23:13

https://twitter.com/kartikeya_1975/stat ... 6955308032
Kartikeya Sharma @kartikeya_1975

Reports : Government open to suggestions from civil society protesters
First comment ...
https://twitter.com/adilhossain/status/ ... 9138366469
Adil Hossain | আদিল হোসেন @adilhossain

It will break!
Look at the choice of words and the glee ... they want to "break" the government.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 23:19

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1 ... 3913232384
India Today @IndiaToday

"Tomorrow's is Jumma day, prayer day, BJP has bought skull caps to disturb the peace. Be careful," Mamata Banerjee
https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1207640512120918018
iMac_too @iMac_too

This is sign of panic. Acknowledgment that things are going towards reverse polarisation


https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1207965444738408448
TIMES NOW @TimesNow

#Breaking | 5 people dressed in skull caps have been arrested in West Bengal’s Murshidabad for faking as Muslims.

Listen in. | #NRCKaSach
https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1207993535749873665
iMac_too @iMac_too

Momta has pressed panic button. She can do anything
Mumtaz Banoojee is faking it. While the Delhi liberandu will be impressed the locals won't. Theek hai.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 23:26

https://twitter.com/shahid_siddiqui/sta ... 7556255744
shahid siddiqui @shahid_siddiqui

Protests are not about CAA/ NRC anymore. It’s the pent up frustration, anger and fear of last so many years which is now boiling over. Modi govt never tried to win over the confidence of Indian Muslims.

Sab ka Vikas
Sab ka Vishwas
Only remained a slogan.

This is it! Taken with the "break it" comment, Muslims want their veto back. Not happening.

shravanp
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2431
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby shravanp » 20 Dec 2019 23:30

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/shahid_siddiqui/status/1207976167556255744
shahid siddiqui @shahid_siddiqui

Protests are not about CAA/ NRC anymore. It’s the pent up frustration, anger and fear of last so many years which is now boiling over. Modi govt never tried to win over the confidence of Indian Muslims.

Sab ka Vikas
Sab ka Vishwas
Only remained a slogan.

This is it! Taken with the "break it" comment, Muslims want their veto back. Not happening.



Truth be told, he merely removed the "entitled" feeling among the Muslims. None of Modi's actions have an iota of being "against" Muslims. If Indian Muslims simply want the Kashmir type of entitlement (as Congress had done), that will NOT happen.

shravanp
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2431
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby shravanp » 20 Dec 2019 23:32

Katare wrote:Here is how I see it-

Govt should not backdown, not even an inch, on either issues because that could lead to the end of the hindutwa agenda of Modi-Raj.

Modi backtracked on land reform bill in his first term when opposition led protest started.

Go forward or Loose it all !



He didn't backtrack. He just didn't have RS numbers. Today BJP has pretty strong numbers in RS, well almost close.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 20 Dec 2019 23:38

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1207984825316999168
Press Trust of India @PTI_News

Anyone born in India before 1987 or whose parents were born before 1987 is a bona fide Indian citizen according to law; no need to worry due to #CitizenshipAmendmentAct or possible countrywide NRC: Official

Person born before 1987 or their descendants.

mmasand
BRFite
Posts: 742
Joined: 19 May 2009 23:46

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby mmasand » 20 Dec 2019 23:38

A Muslim friend from Hyderabad tells me, don't call the protesters Muslims, a handful of students don't represent us, why should we cede space to them. 200 million Muslims have no objection to CAA, they didn't even know about it until they turned on their TV's to see scenes from Delhi.

Sicanta
BRFite
Posts: 1221
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 11:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sicanta » 20 Dec 2019 23:45

This will do nothing to stop modi chariot, but States going out of BJP hands one by one is a major concern. Seems like it's a mixture of losing touch with local issues and vice versa depending too much on modi brand alone, and consequently the infighting between local leaders

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Dec 2019 23:49

4 Bissful win trip to Houristan

The explosions killed 71 people and left 200 injured in the Walled City

Four persons convicted of the serial blasts that killed 71 people and left 200 injured in the Walled City of Jaipur in May 2008 were sentenced to death by a Special Court here on Friday. The four were held guilty of planting the bombs and carrying out explosions, while one of the accused, charged with sending an e-mail claiming responsibility for the blasts, was acquitted.

Special Judge Ajay Kumar Sharma awarded the death penalty to Mohammed Saif (34), Mohammed Sarwar Azmi (36), Saifur Rehman (36) and Mohammed Salman (34), after convicting them on Wednesday under various sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC), the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, and the Explosives Act, in eight cases registered by the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) of the police.
One acquitted

Lucknow resident Shahbaz Ahmed (43), who was the first to be arrested three months after the blasts, was acquitted in all the cases for want of evidence. The ATS had claimed that he had sent an e-mail to media houses on behalf of the Indian Mujahideen two days after the blasts.

OmkarC
BRFite
Posts: 742
Joined: 15 Nov 2016 11:25

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 21 Dec 2019 01:00

Sadguru's views on nationhood & illegal immigration :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzNak27mxs4

OmkarC
BRFite
Posts: 742
Joined: 15 Nov 2016 11:25

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 21 Dec 2019 01:19

mmasand wrote:A Muslim friend from Hyderabad tells me, don't call the protesters Muslims, a handful of students don't represent us, why should we cede space to them. 200 million Muslims have no objection to CAA, they didn't even know about it until they turned on their TV's to see scenes from Delhi.


Folks like him are perhaps reaping the benefits of Owaisi Saab's hyper generosity to Rohingyas.. Not many folks except the locals know that he has settled thousands of Rohingyas in catchment areas of a lake in Balapur & a couple of other parts of Hyderabad.. at least 5000+ and growing.. PMO was tipped off by conservation activists & locals of these encroachments, they asked TG govt to look into this and submit a report.. Silence and no response from TG govt.. They even took foreign funds for conservation of that lake, while allowing Rohingya settlements.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24866
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 21 Dec 2019 01:24

this guy could be writing on the forum, his views are so very similar 8)




The Enemy Within the Gates – the Indian Republic Faces an Existential Threat





The Enemy Within the Gates – the Indian Republic Faces an Existential Threat

The CAA has little ambiguity and scope for multiple interpretations. Despite this simplicity and transparency, what we have seen in the last few days is a Machiavellian and insidious exercise of distortion and perfidy.

jay@bhattc.net' Jay Bhattacharjee
20-12-2019

The wide-spread political agitation and violence that the country has seen in the last few days, after the passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB) 2019 by both houses of Parliament and its approval by the President, took many ordinary citizens and even sophisticated analysts / commentators by surprise. While some protests were expected, the scale and intensity of the reaction were clearly not envisaged. The state security machinery, starting with the police forces, was caught unprepared. The BJP-NDA parties, too, appeared to be in a state of shock and disarray, as the protests increased in intensity.

The only socio-political elements that were not caught on the back foot were the very ones that were igniting the wildfires and disseminating the virus throughout the country – no apologies for mixing metaphors. The Congress and its motley allies had obviously been preparing for this conflagration most meticulously. The foot soldiers in this semi civil-war scenario were also pumped up and raring to be let loose at the appointed times and places. The religious sanctuaries that indoctrinated and trained the rabid mobs and inspired them were very much at the centre of the events.

It should be pointed out that this writer, in the good company of some fellow-commentators, has been studying and assessing the present existential threat to India for a fairly long time and is not at all surprised by the incendiary (literally, in many cases) unrest that the country has seen in the last few days and will possibly continue to witness for some more time.

Ever since the tsunami of 2014, when the genuine Indic forces captured the seat of power in New Delhi for possibly the first time in history, I have advocated that a vigilant watch must be kept on forces that are basically inimical to our ancient society and civilisation. When the 2019 elections confirmed the pole position of the Indic forces in Raisina Hill, I ventured to point out that there was no room for complacency and the sentinels must continue to maintain their guard[i], [ii], [iii].

Before we go further, it will be apposite if we spend some time on understanding the basic facts of the CAB, which has now become the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). The salient features of the CAA are so clear and transparent that readers should reflect deeply about the total deception and dishonesty of the agent provocateurs who have tried to set the country on fire. The sad truth is that they have actually managed to pull the wool over the eyes of many Indian citizens, who have not had either the time, patience or even the interest to get a grasp of the subject.

As far as the mainstream English media in India is concerned, their stand has been based on a deliberate misinterpretation of the statute. The same is true of many journals, newspapers and electronic media in the West. The roll call of dishonour in our country includes the usual suspects, ranging from The Hindu, The Times of India, The Indian Express, The Telegraph and their sister publications in Indian languages. The Western bandicoots comprise The New York Times, The Economist, and (you guessed it), the ever-execrable BBC.

I would, at this stage, like to briefly summarise the key and salient features of the CAA, although I feel that many readers are already familiar with what I will be spelling out:

(1) It is a legislation that is specifically meant for religiously-persecuted minorities in our three neighbouring countries, namely Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. The specific wording of the law on this point is as follows : “Any person belonging to the Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi or Christian community from Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Pakistan and who has entered into India on or before the 31st day of December, 2014 and is staying here to safeguard their lives, shall not be treated as an illegal migrant.”

Yes, Muslims are not covered by this provision, simply because Muslims in these three countries are not subjected to religious persecution. One doesn’t have to be a quantum physicist to understand this point. Putting this in another perspective, those who demand that Muslims should be brought under the purview of this law are clearly deranged or perverse or both. The fact that some high-decibel opponents of CAA are now being over-smart on this point and asking for Shias and Ahmediyas to be bestowed the label of “persecuted” is clear proof that the entire opposition to the CAA is ersatz and manipulated.

Furthermore, Muslims from the three neighbouring countries, who face some other form of persecution / bias, can always seek entry into India under other existing laws on this subject. If eligible for entry to India, they can subsequently apply for citizenship under the naturalisation provision in Section 6 of the Citizenship Act.

(2) The mullahs in the mosques and the secularists in their pulpits (ranging from the watering holes of the India International Centre to other war fronts like JNU, Jamia Milia et al) are frothing that the CAA is against Indian Muslims. Surely, this should rank as one of the most grotesque pieces of distortion that one can possibly think of. Indian Muslims are already citizens of this country, having been born here, and there is no question whatsoever of their being asked to go through a citizenship acquisition process because of the CAA.

(3) Another point that is being harrumphed by the Muslim spokespersons, the mullahs in the mosques and the secularist-stormtroopers (SS) is that Shias, Ahmediyas, Hazaras, Balochis and Rohingyas should also have been included in the CAA, if the intention is to provide succour to victims of religious persecution.

It must be categorically pointed out to the disinformation brigade that all these groups are Muslim ethnic groups. They do not fall under the category of separate religions anywhere in the world. Since they are Muslim, they obviously do not qualify as minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, which are Islamic countries by law. Therefore, it is not possible to include these Muslim groups in the CAA, since it is specifically structured for religious minorities in those countries.

(4) The false-flag argument on the Balochis and Rohingyas is even more glaring and, therefore, simple to repudiate. The Baloch people do not want to immigrate to India but are fighting for an independent Balochistan. The Rohingyas are in a class of their own. They have a dismal record of targeting other minority groups (including Hindus) who stay in the Rakhine region of Myanmar. Their terror record is long and well – documented. Therefore, to include the Rohingyas, who pose a clear security threat to the country, under the CAA, would be a suicidal decision for the Government of India (GOI).

The CAA, as laws and statutes go, is a very clear and uncomplicated piece of legislation. It has little ambiguity and scope for multiple interpretation. Despite this simplicity and transparency, what we have seen in the last few days is a Machiavellian and insidious exercise of distortion and perfidy. The forces that did it and continue to do so are agents of instability and disorder as far as the Indian Republic and its venerable civilisation are concerned. What is being perpetrated is an attempted coup d’etat and nothing short of that. The speed with which the conflagration has spread to various parts of the country (and among various social groups) clearly point to this strategy.

This brings me to the core issue that needs to be understood by my readers and, if I say so, by the thinking segments in our country’s population. This is the role of disinformation and agitprop in bringing about socio-political instability and unrest in democracies by forces opposed to civic society and equality. I propose here to give detailed accounts of actual episodes in the recent past where democracies were systematically undermined and derailed by elites and oligarchies that were bitterly opposed to the legitimate governments of their countries.

The first episode I will deal with is the notorious “Zinoviev Letter” forgery used by the British Conservatives in the 1920s to destroy the electoral chances of the Labour Party for many decades. Despite repeated assertions by independent observers that the letter was a fabrication by the Tories, the British establishment maintained the fiction of a great Soviet conspiracy to plant the Red flag in Buckingham Palace. It took more than forty years for the truth to emerge incontrovertibly – the whole exercise had been planned and implemented by the British secret service and their henchmen in the Conservative party.

In this sordid episode, the parallels with the current Indian scenario are most interesting. In January 1924, the Labour Party formed a government in the U.K. for the first time, although it was a minority government, dependent on the support of the Tories and the Liberals. For a variety of reasons, the Labour government collapsed and a new election was scheduled for late October.

Just before the election, the rabidly reactionary rag-sheet, The Daily Mail published a letter purportedly written by a senior Soviet functionary, Grigory Zinoviev, to the Central Committee of the British Communist Party. It contained inflammatory passages that advocated armed revolt in Britain. The damning forgery put paid to the electoral prospects of the Labour Party and the Tories decisively won the elections in late October 1924.

Readers who are not fully au fait with this historical episode will find it very interesting to go through the following articles that give details about a disinformation campaign that changed the political scenario in an advanced European democracy. The parallels with what the destabilization forces are doing in India today will be glaring[iv], [v].

A much more tragic and poignant episode was the alleged Tukachevsky letter, a meticulously planned campaign by the German secret service in the 1930s to convince Stalin that the Soviet general staff was in collusion with the Nazis and plotting against Moscow. Now, Joseph Stalin, the role model and intellectual predecessor for Messrs. Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury et al, was a notoriously suspicious and distrusting megalomaniac who wanted to entrench his position in the Moscow power structure. When the respected Czechoslovak President Dr Benes forwarded to Stalin what he thought was evidence of treachery in the highest rungs of the Soviet Army, he unwittingly helped the latter to unleash the Great Purge. In one fell sweep, this decimated the armed forces of the USSR and handed Nazi Germany its greatest unarmed victory.

Thousands of senior Soviet officers, starting with Marshal Tukachevsky himself and key Generals and Colonels, were dragged to face hastily-assembled firing squads. Many died chanting the Internationale. When the blood-letting ended, it turned out that Stalin had exterminated more Marxists than the trio of Hitler, Himmler and Kaltenbrunner put together. The popular perception was that the whole thing was a plot by forces that wanted to weaken the Soviet Union and the letter was a forgery. However, the wily Georgian dictator’s propaganda machine drowned out the protests. It is only after the war that secret German archives clearly showed that the operation was planned and implemented by the Abwehr and the SD gang of Canaris and Heydrich, who duped Dr Benes to act as a conduit to Stalin.

Here too, the resemblances with events in our shores are uncanny. From dislodging an Army chief who was proving to be uncomfortably principled (and dismantling a highly-successful covert agency only because he had set it up) to hounding a military intelligence officer, all was par for the course for our desi maestros of destabilisation. The near-sabotage of the Rafale deal with highly-questionable techniques of fabricated data and facts reached a crescendo only a few months ago. The SS (secularist stormtroopers) brigade, the Lutyens Zone and Khan Market gangs, not to mention the masjid-church forces lost out on all the battles that they had initiated since mid-2013, when the battle for the 2014 elections started.

Let me sign off with my take on the anglicized, westernised, deracinated Indian elite that comprises the Shashi Tharoors, the Ramchandra Guhas, the Abhishek Manu Singhvis and the Kapil Sibals of the world. Their entire guerilla campaigns remind me of their roots – the salad days they spent in Delhi’s St. Stephen’s College, the pathetic little copy of Cambridge and Oxford that the Anglican padres constructed in the arid dust of Delhi in the early years of the 20th Century. If ever there is a world competition in pretentiousness, make-believe, ersatz posturing and chicanery, the inmates of this institution (Stephanians, as they label themselves), will walk away with most of the prizes. As the streets of Delhi and a number of other cities burn, these saboteurs (no other word suffices) gorge on their kebabs and their prized liqueurs. The French Republic, too, had its version of enemies within the gates, when it succumbed to Nazi Germany in 1940. The principal offenders were the members of the Paris salon crowd that was never fully at home with Republican France even 151 years after the Revolution in 1789. One of the most notorious collaborators of the Nazis and the Gestapo was Robert Brasillach, whose antipathy to republican values outweighed his intellectual and literary skills. When he was sentenced to death after the liberation of France, his sentence was sent to Charles de Gaulle for confirmation, along with a petition by many writers and scholars asking for clemency and the commutation of the sentence. The great de Gaulle refused, on the grounds that “intellectual crimes” are as toxic and heinous as military and political crimes.

[i] https://swarajyamag.com/politics/needed ... -ecosystem

[ii] https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/why-th ... -lot-today

[iii] http://indiafacts.org/indias-list-of-un ... cent-days/

[iv] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/19 ... ticalnews6

[v] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinoviev_letter


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. IndiaFacts does not assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information in this article.

jay@bhattc.net'
Jay Bhattacharjee
Jay Bhattacharjee is an advisor in corporate laws and finance, based in Delhi. His other areas of interest include socio-political issues and military history. He has been a commentator and columnist from the mid-1990s

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3683
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 21 Dec 2019 01:29

Clear indication of western BIF EJs


Anti-CAA rioters distort Hindu Om symbol to look like Nazi symbol
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/anti-ca ... zi-symbol/

The left-sponsored protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 continue to rage in various parts of the country. While the anti-CAA lobby has been resorting to severe violence, stone pelting, vandalism and arson to voice their dissent, a poster has emerged from a similar protest in Bengaluru which not only goes on to hurt Hindu sentiments but also displays the protestors bigoted and obscurantist mindset by distoring the Hindu Om symbol.

In a picture shared by a Twitter user, a protestor in Bengaluru is seen holding a placard with a distorted image of a Hindu Om symbol (ॐ) to look like the Nazi swastika symbol. The poster also has a text message which reads: ‘F**k Hindutva’.

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2579
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 21 Dec 2019 01:36

pankajs wrote:
Katare wrote:
We must separate chaff from wheat or risk loosing perspective which would be followed by paranoia and group eco-chamber thinking.

There is nothing wrong or illegal on that slogan, they fear Hindu domination so they are protesting against it in a peaceful democratic manner. That is how it should be and we must welcome and encourage it?!?!

I subscribe to the well established doctrine of democratic functioning that Protestors must have unequivocal right to be completely wrong (seen from any POV, logic, culture), without that right (to be wrong) the right to freedom Of speech, dissent ands peaceful protests become meaningless. This than only leaves the violence, rioting and anarchy as alternate tool for people.

I request that the forum must rise above petty stuffs Floating around the net and really dig deep to identify the really rotten meat that we can use now and later once this Protest is over.

Look for Violence, anti India slogans, bigoted anti Hindu comments, lies and incitement to violence, pro Pakistan and ISIS gazwa etc.......well you all are more learned moulanas than a minor talib like me.

You mean "Musalmano se Azadi" is an acceptable slogan from Hindus?!!


Ofcourse, azadi from anything is fine!

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2579
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 21 Dec 2019 01:40

shravanp wrote:
Katare wrote:Here is how I see it-

Govt should not backdown, not even an inch, on either issues because that could lead to the end of the hindutwa agenda of Modi-Raj.

Modi backtracked on land reform bill in his first term when opposition led protest started.

Go forward or Loose it all !



He didn't backtrack. He just didn't have RS numbers. Today BJP has pretty strong numbers in RS, well almost close.


They must have known they don’t have the numbers in RS before they introduced the bill in Lok Sabha, right? They should have let it die/linger in RS to show intent, taking it back set a precedent. Bills linger for years and even decades before passing both the houses.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5514
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 21 Dec 2019 01:59

I feel they are rushing into things w/o preparation or end game.

GST/Demo and now this ….

MH too ...

We have yet to see 370 how it will play out once they loosen the grip.

You can't show your weak hand. That only emboldens the scums


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Karan M, Sagrawal, Varuna and 42 guests