2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Santosh
BRFite
Posts: 722
Joined: 13 Apr 2005 01:55

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Santosh » 30 Dec 2019 07:35

I would have suggested that to make NRC rollout as smooth as possible govt should go to people instead of asking people to come to government. But that would make govt machinery risk their life and limb in certain situations. Easy pick would be to match up Aadhar and Passport data and let them in. But even Passport issuance may be suspect in certain cases.
BTW I see that Ravi Shankar Prasad is now saying NRC will be implemented after consulting states. Not sure what it means as AS had earlier said that NRC is not state subject.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 429
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby madhu » 30 Dec 2019 07:51

I learned that if a student has not studied 10, 11 and 12 in India he is considered NRI. I could not understand this absurd rule. Is there any connection with NRC to this? The reason I think so is that our 10std marks card has a father name and date of birth which effectively replaced our birth certificate which is needed for NRC/establishing citizenship by birth.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 30 Dec 2019 07:57

If u don't have a home how can you have have a Birth Certificate etc on you?

amritk
BRFite
Posts: 107
Joined: 28 Dec 2004 22:45

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby amritk » 30 Dec 2019 08:26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLX84_FB00o

Decent explanation of the CAA/NRC issue.

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 640
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby tandav » 30 Dec 2019 08:51

All IITs have humanities departments. AFAIK 2 semesters in first year 2 courses in Humanities is mandatory for BTech program.

vimal wrote:IITM has humanities and "social sciences" departments now.

https://hss.iitm.ac.in/

It does things like these now:

https://dost.iitm.ac.in/iitmdost/pages/ ... g-workshop

Image

Dileep
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5855
Joined: 04 Apr 2005 08:17
Location: Dera Mahab Ali धरा महाबलिस्याः درا مهاب الي

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Dileep » 30 Dec 2019 09:51

Let me repeat. NRC is a zero sum game if you intend to kick the outsiders out (or to deny any of the fundamental rights such as subject to internment) based on that. So, we must include Everyone. Including the most outlier fringe of the society such as nomads, homeless and even persons who are not of sound mind and body.

If the non-inclusion do not result in denial of any legal rights (privileges WILL be denied of course), then I think a process may be made. I am sure there is going to be serious opposition, but there may be a way to push it through.

We will also need some kind of assurance that it will be difficult to misuse. Multiple levels of checks and balances required, possibly including a form of social audit or jury system. If someone is denied NRC, apart from the appeal process, there must be district level 'jury' of respectable people (neta/babu/pandu/judge/social worker) who should make the final judgement.

Prem Kumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2659
Joined: 31 Mar 2009 00:10

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prem Kumar » 30 Dec 2019 10:15

tandav wrote:All IITs have humanities departments. AFAIK 2 semesters in first year 2 courses in Humanities is mandatory for BTech program.


True. But what's new is that IIT's now offer Humanities Degrees. This was not the case before.

UB Ji: the barmaid wanted a min-JNU sleeper cell in each institution of repute in India. It adds credibility to tukde-tukde protests: "See, its not JNU or AMU. Even the IIT Tamilians & Gults are protesting". The difference is that MIT-Humanities directs the blast outwards (like a Claymore mine), but the IIT-Humanities is designed to direct the blast inwards. What's common is that both Humanities are populated with house-negroes.

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4000
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hnair » 30 Dec 2019 10:58

:lol: :lol: :lol:

- Violence prone Kannur district Kammies of Kerala hold a meeting in which they invited Ungal-barbie, because they made her famous through their social media profiles
- They did not know that Ungal-Barbie is from Jamaat-e-islami background
- During her speech, which started well with some regulation Modi-bashing, Ungal-Barbie decided to push her luck. Asked for release of SDPI/Maoist people that got arrested by Kerala Police
- She called on the CM, who is also the home-minister, to release all the innocent jihad pasandis and not be like yevil Modi.
- Kammie-crazies in audience instantly went ape-shit crazy during the meeting and started a mini-riot
- Ungal-Barbie had to apologise, 'cause maybe she hasnt yet made her soosai-video. Or maybe she was not the braveheart that the androgynous mass on TV calling itself Burkha Dutt, was trying to convince us about

CPI-M protests against Jamia student Ayesha Renna, demands apology for using CM’s name

#WATCH Kerala: Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) activists hold protest in Malappuram against Jamia Millia Islamia student Aysha Renna, demanding her apology for using the name of Pinarayi Vijayan, the Chief Minister of Kerala. (28.12.2019)

The video of downhill skiing by Ungal-barbie, complete with some kammie-krazie yelling "Keep your opinion (about beloved CM) at home", putting paid to months of painstaking buildup of her aura, "navodhanam of wimmens"..... :lol:


darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3102
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 30 Dec 2019 11:13

Khalistanis holding Punjab related posters?


https://www.kcra.com/article/protest-he ... /30355728#

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 11:13

Do the gentle Rakshaks think that BIF and Tukde-Tukde gang has revealed all its cards with NRC or there are still some arrows left in the quiver ? Is this violence and noise just a next step on the escalatory ladder or have they jumped hoops and directly gone for the kill ?

I personally think that not much gas is left in BIF tanks for now after this except for violent riots next year to consolidate E-J vote.

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12423
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Aditya_V » 30 Dec 2019 11:17

These people want SPG security and they behave like this, so really shows they feel no real threat is there- it was just a political gimmick

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/owner-of-two-wheeler-that-priyanka-gandhi-sped-in-lucknow-challaned/articleshow/73019650.cms

Santosh
BRFite
Posts: 722
Joined: 13 Apr 2005 01:55

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Santosh » 30 Dec 2019 11:23

darshan wrote:Yes. Except, referring to the present day treatments of dalit Hindus in muslim majority areas in general across India. Just studying how non muslim minority gets treated is enough to open eyes. If that's not enough then the subject is pretending to be asleep and more of a danger than jihadi.

Hindus are uniting on atleast one issue in Mewat -
https://twitter.com/RituRathaur/status/ ... 4159485952

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 11:32

Aditya_V wrote:These people want SPG security and they behave like this, so really shows they feel no real threat is there- it was just a political gimmick

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/owner-of-two-wheeler-that-priyanka-gandhi-sped-in-lucknow-challaned/articleshow/73019650.cms


What if the scooter met with an accident ? What if the man on the scooter tried to molest her ?
Should not a protectee who is being protected on our Tax money for free be fined if He/She decides to act in a manner which is detrimental to the security ?
Why should I pay for the protection of someone who doesn't car about security ?

@Aditya_V: This Z-security was a way of telling everyone that Gandhi's were a special category of people even when outside power.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 30 Dec 2019 11:32

Vikas wrote:Do the gentle Rakshaks think that BIF and Tukde-Tukde gang has revealed all its cards with NRC or there are still some arrows left in the quiver ? Is this violence and noise just a next step on the escalatory ladder or have they jumped hoops and directly gone for the kill ?

I personally think that not much gas is left in BIF tanks for now after this except for violent riots next year to consolidate E-J vote.


Let's step into their shoes once, with the advent of SM, they lost their ability to control minds, aam admi is now questioning the secular distorted history that has been fed to us. The main central party that gave them that space to operate has been defeated handsomely in last 2 GE. With that they lost access to corridors of power. Slowly, they began to lose battles, surgical strike & balakot, 370, RJB, TT now NRC. They realize they are losing the "narrative". Yes they do have some control through the "flock" and "ansars" in the south and the north respectively, ex: sterlite. But BIF's overall hold is being loosened gradually. Their final play is violence so that world takes note of it and pressurize the GOI, even here you have Jaishankar turning down a meeting in US because it included someone who tried to do exactly the above.

But I was little skeptical about degree of violence, return of DAD and moplah days. But as Karan said it may not be possible in today's context, (fingers crossed here personally for the future). Glad that nothing of the scale happened and no life was lost of normal citizens. The lives that were lost were as a result of police action on the protesters.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 11:47

Karthik S wrote:
Vikas wrote:Do the gentle Rakshaks think that BIF and Tukde-Tukde gang has revealed all its cards with NRC or there are still some arrows left in the quiver ? Is this violence and noise just a next step on the escalatory ladder or have they jumped hoops and directly gone for the kill ?

I personally think that not much gas is left in BIF tanks for now after this except for violent riots next year to consolidate E-J vote.


Let's step into their shoes once, with the advent of SM, they lost their ability to control minds, aam admi is now questioning the secular distorted history that has been fed to us. The main central party that gave them that space to operate has been defeated handsomely in last 2 GE. With that they lost access to corridors of power. Slowly, they began to lose battles, surgical strike & balakot, 370, RJB, TT now NRC. They realize they are losing the "narrative". Yes they do have some control through the "flock" and "ansars" in the south and the north respectively, ex: sterlite. But BIF's overall hold is being loosened gradually. Their final play is violence so that world takes note of it and pressurize the GOI, even here you have Jaishankar turning down a meeting in US because it included someone who tried to do exactly the above.

But I was little skeptical about degree of violence, return of DAD and moplah days. But as Karan said it may not be possible in today's context, (fingers crossed here personally for the future). Glad that nothing of the scale happened and no life was lost of normal citizens. The lives that were lost were as a result of police action on the protesters.


Thank you Karthik.
I still feel that handlers know which buttons to push and cause violence and mayhem. I was surprised to see that Islamists still wanted to fight the govt thru guns and destruction of property despite knowing that treating them with kid gloves is the thing of the past especially in Delhi where Mota Bhai controls the police.
It takes just one more khutba on Jumma day to direct the charged up crowd to kill few Hindus inside a bus to start a riot.

Prem Kumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2659
Joined: 31 Mar 2009 00:10

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prem Kumar » 30 Dec 2019 14:11

I don't think we have seen the last rung of the escalation ladder from BIFs. The reason a Godhra like incident didn't happen because Congress/Muslims fear that it will polarize Hindus decisively towards Modi. This was even tried in U.P where they tried to burn down the building with 30 odd policemen in it. Its thanks to Yogi that this didn't succeed.

Muslims started low level violence ever since 2019 LS victory of Modi. They turned it up a notch now. Once NRC comes, we can expect more. Imagine officials trying to enter a Muslim ghetto to detain a few Bangladeshis.

It must be done with an iron hand - paramilitary forces must be involved. Especially in non-BJP ruled states.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 429
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby madhu » 30 Dec 2019 14:46

UlanBatori wrote:If u don't have a home how can you have have a Birth Certificate etc on you?

Why do I need a home? My brother daughter was born in Ireland but has an Indian passport. She should have all the rights a normal Indian born and India studied people have. Lets say, if a person has a birth certificated in India but for some reason studies abroad 10th. That should not strip her from going through normal entry or force them to enter through NRI quota only.
Basically I am lost with his rule.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23649
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Dec 2019 15:31

Vikas wrote:Do the gentle Rakshaks think that BIF and Tukde-Tukde gang has revealed all its cards with NRC or there are still some arrows left in the quiver ? Is this violence and noise just a next step on the escalatory ladder or have they jumped hoops and directly gone for the kill ?

I personally think that not much gas is left in BIF tanks for now after this except for violent riots next year to consolidate E-J vote.


trailer onlee.

picture abhi baaki hai.

the waters have been tested and at the same time the govt is now forearmed.

More video cameras == more masked faces == more high resolution drone cameras.

means that crowds now will have to be infiltrated to garner intelligence.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Dec 2019 16:04

KL Dubey wrote:
pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/RaghuAiyar/status/1209666140315668481


And they will be even unhappier after they are out of the NDA and have their vote share eaten by BJP. :D The best course of action for most of these guys would be to merge with BJP, but of course they will not do that since they are nothing but family-run outfits.

pankajs wrote:One reason why BJP has decided yo go alone. Allies want to ride of BJP's coattails and then blackmail to get more than their fair share in power and the opportunity to loot the treasury.

Looks like another break is on the cards.


Most people - even ahead-of-the-curve BRFwallahs - do not look at empirical evidence closely enough, and get misled by media reports/analysis.

There was a time when it was rare for regional/state parties to need an alliance with each other or with Congis to defeat the BJP.

Around 2013-2014, it started becoming necessary for regional parties to pair up with each other or with Congis to defeat Modi and Shah.

After 2015, things became even worse for these fellows...a two-party alliance was not enough any more, one needed multi-party "thugbandhans" in state after state to have any chance of defeating the BJP...sometimes it worked, sometimes not. :lol:

The empirical evidence leads to a logical deduction...i.e., things are moving to a situation in which the BJP voteshare continues to increase and ultimately will overwhelm any opposition alliances.

A corollary of this line of thinking is that the BJP itself would not require/want many allies in the future, except maybe in the south and northeast.

My forecast is that traditional allies will continue to leave and slowly be eaten away, and new alliances (NEDA in the northeast, AIADMK, maybe TRS, maybe YSRC) will be strengthened.

KL will remain a conundrum. My hope is that the state is bifurcated into Travancore-Cochin state and the UT of Malabar (with no legislature).

Empirical evidence is clear enough that BJP's vote share continues to increase BUT there are BOTH short-term and mid-term tactics deployed to retain relevance by regional parties.

IF one just keeps focusing on the mid to long-term, there us every possibility to miss out on the short-term tactics. So while mid to long-term BJP is likely to become the dominant enough to overwhelm a single all encompassing opposition alliance, it is still some ways off in many states.

Also, as I had written before, so called allies "want to ride of BJP's coattails and then blackmail to get more than their fair share in power and the opportunity to loot the treasury".

Note:
1. JDU broke away from BJP to fight GE 2014 alone to loose massively followed by joining forces with the rest of the anti-BJP parties to beat the BJP. JDU soon switched side to form a government with BJP in the state and got equal seat allocated for GE 2019.
a. Even in loosing, BJP managed to up its vote share in AS 2015 and became the single largest vote catcher in the state.
b. The vote share of about 25% means that it is still far from getting anywhere near power going in alone in Bihar. Its only chance would be in a four cornered contest.
c. BJP knows this and JDU knows this too. JDU extracted {Blackmailed} BJP to part with equal number of seats for GE 2019 to the extent that BJP gave away a lot of seats where it has sitting MPs. On top of that JDU was not satisfied with ministry allocation at the center and thus choose to keep away to show its displeasure.

Now, here comes the latest in the Bihar saga ...
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 021861.cms
JD(U) a bigger party in Bihar, must fight more seats than BJP: Prashant Kishor

2. The Maharashtra saga is fresh ..
a. BJP had to give 23 seat to Sena for its 25 seats for the Lok Sabha elections. For the assembly elections, BJP managed to negotiate for 150 for Sena's 124. While BJP did manage to stich an alliance with Sena, it had to concede an almost equal share in Lok Sabha.
b. Election of 2014, which was a 4 way contest, is indicative of BJP's strength in Maharashtra. With about 28% of votes, BJP won 122 seats, 22 short of the 144 needed to form a government on its own.
c. As soon as Sena figure out it "blackmail" to get 1:1 power for 1:2 results won't work, it went over to the opposition to form its own government.
d. As things stand today, IF Sena/NCP/CON are able to stay in power for the full term, deliver "some" gains for their bases and fight the next together, there is no possibility of BJP coming back to power on its own.

This is empirical evidence for you. As long as BJP is willing to give in the "blackmail" of its allies and their hunger for power and loot, the alliances will hold. In Jharkhand too the alliance couldn't happen because of excessive demands of it previous allies.

It is good to understand the short-term as well as the Mid to long-term thinking of the alliance partners. To the alliance partners, the BJP surge in state after state is because of the Modi factor. After Modi, they are betting that the BJP will pull back to its normal and all they have to do it ride this "extraordinary" period out i.e. till 2029 at the max.

In a way, they are right too. BJP is surging on Modi as is evident from its performance in Lok Sabha as against its assembly performance. IF they can hold off Modi's charge till 2029 by blackmailing BJP (JDU) or by allying with their sworn enemy (Sena) they will get another chance to come into their own in another era.

BJP, therefore, has to become the default party in all the critical states BEFORE Modi leaves the scene. Modi/Shah hopefully will get BJP there sooner than later. However, it is not an easy problem to solve they way things have panned out, first in Maharashtra and then Jharkhand.

Indian is a far diverse country for any single party to set the agenda and dominate for any period of time. Nehru's India was a different era when the aura of Nehru/Gandhi was at its peak just after independence. Modi is once in a lifetime politician and Shah or any of the others will never be able to match Modi. Will be interesting to watch Bihar.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 16:27

Before Modi Ji hangs his shoes (which most likely will happen around 2029 GE), BJP needs to become a party not dependent on allies to form govt.
One SS experiment is enough to set cat among the pigeons and give ideas to everyone including BJP leadership.
That any regional party would resist expanding footprints of BJP is given so JDU jumping back in the arms of Criminal Lalu (who BTW is enjoying hospitality at RIMS) is not far fetched unless a party is so small like Paswan that they can't exists alone in the ecosystem without BJP.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 16:33

chetak wrote:
Vikas wrote:Do the gentle Rakshaks think that BIF and Tukde-Tukde gang has revealed all its cards with NRC or there are still some arrows left in the quiver ? Is this violence and noise just a next step on the escalatory ladder or have they jumped hoops and directly gone for the kill ?

I personally think that not much gas is left in BIF tanks for now after this except for violent riots next year to consolidate E-J vote.


trailer onlee.

picture abhi baaki hai.

the waters have been tested and at the same time the govt is now forearmed.

More video cameras == more masked faces == more high resolution drone cameras.

means that crowds now will have to be infiltrated to garner intelligence.



The E-J crowd is instigating a blowback and hoping for few deaths during the riots which I think are just one act of stupidity away.
Basic common sense that these thugs don't have is that Modi Ji has never backed off just because someone threatened violence and acted like a Paki. Even Pakhis got a kick in their nuts after his friendship hand was rejected post Lahore visit and Pathankot attacks with Uri and Pulwama.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 16:53

Aaditya Thackeray becomes minister in Appa's cabinet whereas Pawar family bags Dy CM post once again. Get ready to use your withdrawl cards at the ATM called Govt of Maha.

If pappa is CM, then even first time MLA with zero experience of Life and administration can become a minister while Chacha is always there to get his Bhatija, Dy CM post to keep everything within the family. Remember new Dy CM is the same guy who wanted to urinate and fill the canals when farmers complained about woes of water.
Lets see how many from Media would howl about it v/s the ones who were crying buckets over Amrita Fadanavis being active in social life hence misusing position of being CM's wife.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23649
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Dec 2019 16:55

Irish PM Leo Varadkar visits ancestral village in India

Image



Varadkar is the first Irish government leader of Indian origin and has visited the country on a number of occasions. He completed his medical internship at KEM Hospital in his father's childhood city of Mumbai.

During an interview on RTÉ Radio on 18 January 2015 (his 36th birthday), Varadkar spoke publicly for the first time about being gay: "it's not something that defines me. I'm not a half-Indian politician, or a doctor politician or a gay politician for that matter. It's just part of who I am, it doesn't define me, it is part of my character I suppose". Varadkar was a prominent advocate of the same-sex marriage referendum. His partner, Matthew Barrett, is a doctor at Mater Misericordiae University Hospital.

Larry Walker
BRFite
Posts: 319
Joined: 26 Nov 2019 17:33

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Larry Walker » 30 Dec 2019 17:21

listening to the latest press conference by PGV - i think she is loosing the plot - trying to look like a fighter who stands against evil MoShaYo. In her pursuit - she is now trivializing a gross legal violation - imagine if common man caught flaunting the rules gives the same excuse like PGV - there are bigger problems in the state to solve then me riding helmet-less !!!
it is bewildering that our media is not holding her accountable and asking questions on how she can claim to represent common man when she nonchalantly flaunts rules - rather than setting herself as example for her followers.

Larry Walker
BRFite
Posts: 319
Joined: 26 Nov 2019 17:33

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Larry Walker » 30 Dec 2019 17:26

Also - she is willfully putting the career of UP Police officer Archana Singh to jeopardy by taking detours which have not been purveyed in advance and if her security found issues with UP police security - they will lode a complaint against the police officer in-charge of the convoy. So much for claim of upholding law and constitution and then no regards for people discharging duty for that law and constitution.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4934
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 30 Dec 2019 18:12

Politics · Trending
#IndiaSupportsCAA
754K Tweets

GO and RT

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4934
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 30 Dec 2019 18:17

Shehla Rashid
@Shehla_Rashid
A manual for allies:

If you are opposed to Muslim identity politics, why do you want leadership of a movement that is being led and sustained by Muslims, for which Muslims are paying with their blood?


I was wondering why AH left in India/US/Europe hide behind Islamists, terrorists and support burqua/Polygamy and Female genital mutilation.

The reason is Islamists provide street power that no one is willing to do. They will riot on the roads,c ollect welfare and burn down places, kill people which COMMIES like to do
Last edited by hnair on 30 Dec 2019 20:42, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: You have been warned quite a few times for foul language usage.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Dec 2019 19:00

Look at this piece ...

1. Our IE goes out to get approval from Gora sahibs. Without gora sahib approval nothing is kosher.
2. Behind the mask of asking diplomats across continents, I will bet that most of the attribution except for the bland "concern" will be from gora sahibs or imaginary gora sahibs.
3. IE style of propaganda against the Modi/BJP government.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... s-6190809/
No outreach on CAA, foreign diplomats warn: India fast losing friends
More than a fortnight after the Citizenship (Amendment) Act came into force and triggered nationwide protests, there is growing unease within the capital’s foreign diplomatic community over the BJP-led NDA government’s moves.

The diplomats have publicly maintained that the CAA is an “internal issue”. However, when The Indian Express spoke to ambassadors and diplomats from at least 16 countries, across all continents, over the last few days on the new law and the protests, they expressed “concern” at the situation.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23649
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Dec 2019 19:25

Vikas wrote:Aaditya Thackeray becomes minister in Appa's cabinet whereas Pawar family bags Dy CM post once again. Get ready to use your withdrawl cards at the ATM called Govt of Maha.

If pappa is CM, then even first time MLA with zero experience of Life and administration can become a minister while Chacha is always there to get his Bhatija, Dy CM post to keep everything within the family. Remember new Dy CM is the same guy who wanted to urinate and fill the canals when farmers complained about woes of water.
Lets see how many from Media would howl about it v/s the ones who were crying buckets over Amrita Fadanavis being active in social life hence misusing position of being CM's wife.



twitter

sirji, did you forget these :mrgreen:

It's called Nepotism!

Uddhav Thackrey's son Aditya Thackrey is now Cabinet Minister. Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar is now Deputy CM.

Gopinath Munde's nephew Dhananjay Munde, Vilasrao Deshmukh's son Amit Deshmukh, Shankar Rao Chavan's son Ashok Chavan in Cabinet.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Dec 2019 19:30

One reason why the Indian political backers of the street protest are unwilling to push things beyond a line. The other is of course Yogi's response to identify the rioters and make them pay the damage along side not nonsense policing.

Doesn't mean that there will be no violence BUT the politicians that have maximum to loose will not push it. IF there is further violence it will be from inside the community or pushed by puppet masters from outside state/country.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... s-6190819/
On the ground in Uttar Pradesh, protest divide along religion, not politics
Invoking the Constitution and waving the Tricolour to widen the base of the CAA-NRC protests don’t seem to be working in large parts of Uttar Pradesh. In a state deeply divided on caste lines, support for the protests is split more on the lines of religion than politics.

The state’s main Opposition parties — SP, BSP and Congress — in UP have unequivocally opposed the move. But across the constituencies of Baghpat, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Sambhal and Rampur, many Hindus who voted for Opposition parties during the Lok Sabha elections support the government’s citizenship move.

Their response to the police crackdown in the state — 19 deaths and over 1,100 arrests — is muted, and hardly anyone is willing to declare that the citizenship move should be rolled back.

All of them say fears over the new law are misplaced, an assert that no Muslim from their neighbourhood, village or taluka will be evicted. They also endorse communal amity and blame politics for the protests.

And some so called "liberals" are hoping the state will flip because of violence and police response to the violence. :rotfl: Couldn't be funnier. This was easily predictable. Which world do these "liberals" live in?!!

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1211500163966984192
iMac_too @iMac_too

Best barometer to gauge "majority" (that includes Dalits) consolidation on an issue is बहन जी @Mayawati's statements

Agree with iMac ... Today wonlee, Coupta jee was very upset with Behenji for not fronting the protests. Unlike you Coupta ji, Behenji has to earn her credits from the voters.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3528
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Dec 2019 20:16

chetak wrote:
Vikas wrote:Do the gentle Rakshaks think that BIF and Tukde-Tukde gang has revealed all its cards with NRC or there are still some arrows left in the quiver ? Is this violence and noise just a next step on the escalatory ladder or have they jumped hoops and directly gone for the kill ?

I personally think that not much gas is left in BIF tanks for now after this except for violent riots next year to consolidate E-J vote.


trailer onlee.

picture abhi baaki hai.

the waters have been tested and at the same time the govt is now forearmed.

More video cameras == more masked faces == more high resolution drone cameras.

means that crowds now will have to be infiltrated to garner intelligence.

1. +1 both sides will learn from the tactics.
2. this was a dipstick test by the govt in addition to being a distraction to shift the narrative for some other thing..from fixing economy, pakistan and ram mandir. One of them will return shortly in mainstream...this is their version of rotating the strike....
3. expect more fireworks in remaining 4.5 years of motabhai..
4. Qn: Who can take up the baton from AD? He's 74 now..I am sure there will be more like him..I am sure we have started looking and we end up finding diamond like SJ

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Gerard » 30 Dec 2019 20:19

The website of Jamia Millia Islamia was hacked on Thursday and a message supporting the students in their protest against the amended citizenship law posted on it. The website was hacked in the evening and the hackers posted messages asking Jamia students to ensure that the movement does not die. “Brave students of Jamia keep fighting against the oppression. Don’t let the movement die. Every time they hit you Rise up stronger! Rise up stronger! Rise up stronger! Rise up stronger!” the message read.


Even the elite madrassa talibs getting tired of protests?

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1922
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Zynda » 30 Dec 2019 21:34

This individual is giving out tips to beat the facial recognition software/system during protests on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/sanitarypanels/stat ... 5414396928

I am sure these tactics are not new for law enforcement around the world and I do hope that our police are learning valuable lessons from the recent events.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23649
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Dec 2019 21:50

doornob in full cry :mrgreen:


twitter

Arnab @republic gets senior Congress leader to accept on Prime time that Congress brought Bangladeshi moslem infiltrators to Assam due to political compulsions.

Watch RT & make it viral



https://twitter.com/Kaalateetham/status/1210961588460478464

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23649
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Dec 2019 22:02

twitter


Many ordinary people in distant villages and towns did not know much about CAA or NRC until a few days ago.
Violently protesting Muslims and denigrating Hindu iconography have ensured that millions of average Hindus have now further hardened their support for the Modi govt!

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 429
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby madhu » 30 Dec 2019 22:36

A study of J & K UPA vs NDA1
Yearly Fatality data

Image

* More number of terrorists killed during UPA than NDA
* NDA1 undertook high risk operation all out (2017) still has a better terrorist to security mortality ratio may be due to bullet proof jackets provided by NDA
* Myth that MODI is better in controlling/Killing Terrorists

Major Incidents

Image

* More number of incidents initiated by security forces to kill terrorists happened during UPA than NDA
* UPA2 had better track record of lowering the incidents than UPA1 or NDA1 in controlling J & K
* Myth that MODI is better in controlling/Killing Terrorists

Yearly Suicide Attacks

Image

* UPA 0 suicide attacks in 2010,11,12 (3 yrs)
* After 26/11 UPA really controlled incidents in J & K

Yearly explosion data

Image

* More number of security forces killed in explosion during UPA than NDA
* UPA2 had better track record of lowering the incidents than UPA1 or UPA2
* Myth that MODI is better in controlling/Killing Terrorists

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 429
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby madhu » 30 Dec 2019 22:41

UPA v/s NDA Pan India security analysis

Yearly Fatality data

Image

* More number of incidents throughout India happened during UPA than NDA
* Modi is really effective in controlling terror incidents outside disturbance zone than Manmohan

Major Incidents

Image

* More number of incidents initiated by terrorists happened during UPA than NDA throughout India
* Modi is really effective in controlling terror incidents outside disturbance zone than Manmohan

Yearly Suicide Attacks

Image

* UPA 0 suicide attacks in 2010 (1 yrs)
* After 26/11 UPA really controlled incidents in J & K
* Modi is better at nation wise in controlling suicide attack than Manmohan
* However more security people are killed (#59) under Modi due to explosion than Manmohan( 27# & 16#)

Yearly explosion data

Image

* More number of incidents throughout India happened during UPA than NDA
* More people got killed/ injured during UPA than in NDA
* Modi is really effective in controlling terror incidents outside disturbance zone than Manmohan

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 22:45

One of the biggest change that I see around is the fear of Islamists using violence is no longer working with Hindus. It was revenge for Godhra that erased the fear and SM has made sure that nothing goes unreported. Now for every stone flung at them, Hindus are willing (atleast in words) to throw back a brick.
The old bonds of forced communal amity and commonality are no longer sacred with Generation born after Mumbai blasts.
Meanwhile in all this debate on communalism, Xtians get a free pass. Yesterday I saw a church banner wading into CAA and about some silly controversy about Farah Khan/ Raveena Tandon statement and guess what where are the Xtians protesting... In Punjab and Jammu.
Who would have thunk ?
Now Imagine Tirputhi Balaji temple with a banner supporting ghar wapasi or asking devotees to support candidates who declare themselves only as Hindus and the howling by Media.

Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1189
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Lisa » 30 Dec 2019 22:59

Zynda wrote:This individual is giving out tips to beat the facial recognition software/system during protests on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/sanitarypanels/stat ... 5414396928

I am sure these tactics are not new for law enforcement around the world and I do hope that our police are learning valuable lessons from the recent events.


All nonsense. In London, they have so many cameras they simply follow you home. Please tweet this. Maybe they will be able to come up with a plan on how to camouflage their homes!

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 30 Dec 2019 23:30

^^ Everyone in Lootens is now a cyber security expert like that dolt Suzzane Roy who wants Muslims to give out wrong name and address.

Meanwhile I am sure lot many girls are getting sexually abused by Islamists in the garb of this charged commie atmosphere like it has happened in the past. Remember the story of the girl who was sexually abused during Kathua rape case by a Musalmaan from Kashmir. Just wait till the #Metoo stories come out in a years time.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: nandakumar, Neela and 102 guests