2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 23 Nov 2019 11:31

If UT still can't understand pawar game then he doesn't deserve to be in politics at all.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 23 Nov 2019 11:36

What is impact of all this on INC ?

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 23 Nov 2019 11:41

Subramanian Swamy
@Swamy39
Message to the Nation: If you risk splitting the Hindutva movement you will be split

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 23 Nov 2019 11:44

Amongst this whole hoola loop game that played out for 3 weeks, the one agency that silently worked in the background was the ED. Pawar challenged the ED, rubbed it in on Thursday after the 40 min meet with the PM. Ajit Pawar is no Saint, he has several outstanding lines of inquiry against him, his grip on the MLA's of which he has chosen most is undeniable. The day Pawar Sr was hauled off to the ED in Mumbai, Ajit quit as an MLA and party legislative leader and went AWOL for several hours.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 23 Nov 2019 11:46

@bababanaras
One day in the morning you will on your tv sets and you will see the news

Now PoK is part of India.

Maharashtra ChanakyaNiti

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Nov 2019 11:48

Glad to have been wrong.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 23 Nov 2019 11:52

guys i am hearing that Ajit Pawar has to keep his MLAs with him until floor test on Nov 30. They must break Shiv Sena now and get their MLA. So suspense continues till then ...

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 23 Nov 2019 12:01

Shah did not even visit UT to convince him of the alliance after the elections. That's a big clue that BJP did not care much for SS. They probably wanted them out without appearing to pushing them out.

NCP or a section of NCP was in on it from the beginning. Most lkely Senior Pawar was in it too otherwise he wouldn't have let UT and AT go to the governor's office and then flip at the last moment. That was the ultimate insult for SS, much more than BJP has ever done to them. UT if he had any shame at that point should have stopped all attempts at govt formation and either supported BJP or just sit out.

Is Congress a willing player in this drama or did it not have any clue too?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 12:10

^^
CON was played along with Sena.

How does one destroy the credibility of both Sena and CON at the same time? By bringing the two poles together to show both of them as pure opportunist. Who was instrumental in bringing the poles together? Who else but the Pawarful! I had once, early in this latest episode, had postulated that Pawarful was doing BJP's job or something similar.

It is fun to watch the public "intellectuals" / Political "Analyst", who were sure about BJP having finally met its match in Maha, trying to come to terms with the latest Modi/Shah maneuver.

I am loving it!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 12:22

Rony wrote:Subramanian Swamy
@Swamy39
Message to the Nation: If you risk splitting the Hindutva movement you will be split

I think the message is deeper ... try poking Modi/BJP and we will take you to the cleaners. It is a message to allies as well as neutrals and opponents. Message to shore up support in RS now that some more important bills are lined up.

Added Later: Pawar era is finally over.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 23 Nov 2019 12:26

https://twitter.com/i/status/1198127454964944896

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 12:30

nJay!

https://twitter.com/BDUTT/status/1198121460943818753

barkha dutt @BDUTT

All of last week Delhi was agog with what went down in meeting between @PawarSpeaks & @narendramodi. How come that did not make Shiv Sena or the Congress more alert, and more in a hurry. Today these two parties are the biggest losers of this 'pawar' play. #MaharashtraPolitics

https://twitter.com/bhupendrachaube/sta ... 0862615553

bhupendra chaubey @bhupendrachaube

#UddhavThackeray The biggest loser. His son become first time MLA, But he trusted a fox @PawarSpeaks. Big mistake by him. @INCIndia exposed as being opportunistic towards “ secularism “, @ShivSena exposed for dumping old friends. @Dev_Fadnavis laughs on his way to CM chair

https://twitter.com/rohini_sgh/status/1 ... 3397924870

Rohini Singh @rohini_sgh [Openly Anti-BJP]

Congress exposed for being opportunistic towards secularism and BJP exposed for being opportunistic towards corruption.

https://twitter.com/rohini_sgh/status/1 ... 7474904064

Rohini Singh @rohini_sgh

NCP got the Sena to resign from the cabinet & reach a point of no return. The BJP has been forced to align with a party it called naturally corrupt and whose leaders it accused of treason. The shrewdest politician in all of this has been Sharad Pawar. And he was the opposition!;)

https://twitter.com/virsanghvi/status/1 ... 8008245248

vir sanghvi @virsanghvi

Moral of the story: if you want to out-manoeuvre Amit Shah then move swiftly.
Dont hold endless meetings, say you’ll sleep over it,listen to Antony,try & track Rahul down etc.
Just do the damn deal. Time waits for no one. And it won’t wait for the Congress.
Those days are over.

https://twitter.com/rahulkanwal/status/ ... 4619034624

Rahul Kanwal @rahulkanwal

Liberals believed @RahulGandhi was opposition’s problem number 1. They thought the more experienced older guard would do a better job. Till yesterday it seemed like that. Then, wham. Fact is, India’s opposition clueless against the shrewdest politicians of this generation.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 12:33

https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1 ... 2838811648

Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

Best thing that happened due to #MaharashtraPolitics is not that #DevendraFadnavis became CM.

The best this that happened is that #ShivSena became "secular" officially for the Lutyens, and now we can stop this stupid debate of pseudo-secularism once and for all.

YD trolling Liberals ...

https://twitter.com/BDUTT/status/1198116886820450304

barkha dutt @BDUTT

Sharad Pawar @PawarSpeaks seems to have done a cool double agent act that is so masterful that even those who have known him for decades didn't anticipate it. Surprising given that he just met with PM. Who believes that conversation was only about farmers! #MaharashtraPolitics

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1198116271771930626

ANI @ANI

Sanjay Nirupam: People would be thinking I will be happy by today's developments,but I am actually very sad. Congress has been unnecessarily defamed in this and thinking of alliance with Shiv Sena was a mistake. I appeal to Sonia ji to at first dissolve Congress Working Committee

https://twitter.com/virsanghvi/status/1 ... 3252213760

vir sanghvi @virsanghvi

Around six years ago before Rahul became Congress Vice President his mother warned him ‘Pawar is poison’.
He misunderstood completely & made a speech quoting her as saying “power is poison”.
Now they know.

VirS trolling CON ..

https://twitter.com/TheSamirAbbas/statu ... 6541949952

Samir Abbas @TheSamirAbbas

What’s new ? Hasn’t Congress joined hands with a party it felt was ‘damn communal’. Wasn’t it a sudden amnesia after election results over many allegations you guys put on them ? Morality & ideology are just show pieces in today’s politics & ye jo public hai ye sab jaanti hai.

In reply to a CON politico's taunt to the BJP.

https://twitter.com/waglenikhil/status/ ... 2720416768

nikhil wagle @waglenikhil

Dear @Dev_Fadnavis, you ran a campaign against @AjitPawarSpeaks and NCP on irrigation scam. Now you are allying with him. Did you dump your so-called morality and anti-corruption plank? Is this not hypocrisy? #Maharashtragovernmentformation

Pagle is very Anti-BJP and pro-CON.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 12:44

Why did BJP/NCP not stake claim first day?

https://twitter.com/ramprasad_c/status/ ... 7153676289

Ram @ramprasad_c

If BJP formed an alliance with NCP on day one, there’d have been disgust among public. Letting the drama play out just long enough for public disgust to build up against Sena, NCP, Congress and public sympathy to build up in favor of Fadnavis, shows extraordinary political acumen.

Exactly I was saying. Plus other reasons that have been discussed on the forum. Very educational for someone wanting to learn political thinking and maneuvering.

https://twitter.com/BDUTT/status/1198103966816456704

barkha dutt @BDUTT

Striking irony that not one person in Shiv Sena or Congress saw this coming. I don't include NCP as #SharadPawar is simply too crafty, too experienced, to not be on board. And what of us in the media, not one journalist knew. Totally outplayed #MaharashtraPolitics

The lust for power had over-taken their brains. Zimple!

The signals coming from BJP were unmistakable! Sena was too focused on the CM ship to take notice.

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/11 ... 3386170368

Shiv Aroor @ShivAroor

Shiv Sena & Congress doubly damaged here? They dumped their ideologies very publicly to make a union possible. Changed into new clothes very publicly so the dance could happen. But the dance *didn’t*. So they’re now left standing awkwardly in clothes they otherwise publicly hate.

https://twitter.com/sushantsareen/statu ... 3452850176

sushant sareen @sushantsareen

The shell shocked look on @rautsanjay61face is priceless. His balloon has been punctured & for him to talk of Shivaji’s legacy is a bit like the devil quoting the scripture. The only thing good about what has happened in Maharashtra is that Shiv Sena has been nicely shafted.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 23 Nov 2019 13:11

SP is talking now. He has conformed a split in NCP and cannot say for sure how many MLAs have defected. BJP needs what 40 MLAs? If say about 15 independents join, that would at least 25 NCP MLAs have to support Fadnavis. Does Ajit Pawar command this level of support from within? Plot thickens.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 13:14

CRamS wrote:SP is talking now. He has conformed a split in NCP and cannot say for sure how many MLAs have defected. BJP needs what 40 MLAs? If say about 15 independents join, that would at least 25 NCP MLAs have to support Fadnavis. Does Ajit Pawar command this level of support from within? Plot thickens.

There is no plot to thicken. ejay the moment or do some more research. The DF government will get past a trust vote.

Btw, Some reports over the past weeks seemed to suggest that the Matoshree's kitchen cabinet was behind the UT/AT's powerplay.

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 23 Nov 2019 13:23

Syed Ata Hasnain on twitter.

My wife informed me looking at her mobile news that Fadnavis was being sworn in as CM. I laughed and told her she was reading 5 year old news. Then we switched on the tv and laughed aloud.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 23 Nov 2019 13:26

chetak wrote:

Chetakji
The picture tells it all

Just woke up to the Maha-Dangaal!!!
Sh*****t Sena finished at last
Sirji not just the opposition but even the old BJP are scared of the Namo-Shamo!!!

At this rate BJP to rule for another 15 yrs you reckon (if Not More)
Gurudev: any need/chance/probability of reviving Raj T and MNS with tukde of SS???

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 23 Nov 2019 13:29

Rony wrote:

Ronyji
What a screenshot!!!

Expression on 'Mian ki Pyaari!!!' says it all!!!
Torn between watching Virat masterclass or Maha-Dangaaal
Have to do channel Hopping

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Nov 2019 13:45

We will wait and see what happens, But UT is appearing as just surviving on his father's name and is really dumb. He has completely betrayed his cadre for money. Everybody with a brain knows that he has broken the alliance since Fadnavis Govt was not corrupt just wanted money and does not care for party cadre.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 23 Nov 2019 14:02

Game is not over yet? Total confusion. Its not over until the floor test.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Nov 2019 14:07

Game is not over but UT,AT and Sanjay Raut are politically finished and pawerful will bury him. They have no power to even bargain and now even if NCP, SS and INC form a govt, SS will be shut down. Now UT AT have to give pawarful whatever he wants.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 23 Nov 2019 14:36

Now the Maratha vote is with BJP. That's a huge plus in the next Lok Sabha elections.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 14:38

Background: Ajit Pawar is the legislature party leader of NCP. He was elected yeterdin wonlee.

https://twitter.com/JhaSanjay/status/11 ... 0300069888

Sanjay Jha @JhaSanjay

If Ajit Pawar is sacked by the NCP, he has no locus standi to claim leadership of the NCP legislative party.
Okay, let the games begin.

https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1 ... 6260308993

Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

On the floor of the house legislative party is everything. The political party is nothing.

They played a big one on you, and make no mistake, the producer director of the show is Chacha Pawar only.

Meaning Pawarful can sack Ajit Pawar from the party but till he is not sacked by the NCP legislative party, he holds all the cards.

Btw, if it is still not clear, remember there is something called a wip that Ajit Pawar is authorized to issue as the leader of the NCP legislative party that will disqualify any NCP MLA who votes in violation of that wip, presumably to vote for DF government. IF he is remains the legislative party leader during trust vote and issues a wip, any NCP MLA voting against him/DF will loose his/her seat IF DF survives the trust vote.

While Pawar made all the right noise as far a Sena was concerned but he did not expel Ajit Pawar or initiate any other disciplinary action. Also, he made a very interesting comment that most of the MLAs where out of station and would take sometime to reach Mumbai and he chalk out the next step after consulting everyone. Hmmm ... sounds like he is preparing grounds for inaction.

Also note, CON stayed away from the joint press con. Did it finally realize that it got played by NCP/Pawar?

Lot of question to which the answers will only become clear in the hours and the days to come. Next, watch out for NCP MLA meet scheduled for 4:30 pm today and the news coming out of it.

Obviously, only a floor test can make things official and final.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Nov 2019 14:54

Winners and losers:
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/mahara ... and-losers

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 23 Nov 2019 15:11

Sumeet wrote:SHOCKER: 22 Shiv Sena MLAs Set To Break Away To Support BJP-led Maha Govt Say Sources
LOVE IT This is what I want now.

Sumeet Ji :
Wish I could sing "Sumeet Ji Bhole Bhaley, but, not being a Singer, this will have to do :

Cheers

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 23 Nov 2019 15:18

This is best scenario for dharmics, however I beg to differ that Pawar (The Pawar) was responsible for the split :

There was a good analysis on this thread on powerful sugar mafia and co-operative castist lobby behind pawar clan. When that lobby was threatened via ED etc, they were forced to bite the buleet. Pawar (The Pawar) is true when he said Ajit pawer's decision is his personal and you will see this official split in the party (and family) as Pawar thought that he can handle the storm and come out unscathed, others did not and hence the split.

Pawar may also would have got some quid pro quo in this to let this happen so that ED will go soft on him, but he never wanted BJP to win and if you look at his taunts at BJP (too much political impression at stake) never had this in his dreams. Rug was pulled under his feet.

Imagine the opposite scenario power stitching up cocktail of SS -Congoons- NCP with all string in pawar hands, that too for such an important financial powerhouse of the country. Both NCP and conjoins will have steady money to regain control back

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 23 Nov 2019 15:28

I feel Sharad Pawar has royally gamed Maharashtra. Proved decisively today that it is Pawar and Pawar only who holds the strings in Maharashtra. BJP cannot claim victory today.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 23 Nov 2019 15:51

sajo21 wrote:I feel Sharad Pawar has royally gamed Maharashtra. Proved decisively today that it is Pawar and Pawar only who holds the strings in Maharashtra. BJP cannot claim victory today.

sajo Ji :

JO JEETA WOHI SIKANDAR

Cheers

dipak · Post by **dipak** » 23 Nov 2019 16:40

krishna_krishna wrote:This is best scenario for dharmics, however I beg to differ that Pawar (The Pawar) was responsible for the split :
...
...

Saar, only time will tell the truth, however it is very difficult if all this happened and a fox like SP didn't get a whiff of it. Recall, the sudden letter to the Governor at 11:30am and subsequently Prez rule. Pawar Sr. could easily have provided the letter of support then and there, he had taken sufficient time already but he chose otherwise. Strong indication that he was onboard.

This all current natak seems to be inline with his wily nature - he doesn't want to burn bridges with SS and INC. Moreover, UT is his close relative (though he didn't shower any favor on SS due to that).

In long run, SP has his cake, and eats it too.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 23 Nov 2019 18:06

In this game of cloak and dagger, SS very quickly showed its gun which was without any ammunition. Congress like Sanjay Nirupam said, unnecessarily got sucked into this drama otherwise they were content with 44 seats and opposition tag.

I still wonder who gave this stupid idea to Udy that he can get his man as CM despite having half the seats in the alliance.
What were they smoking ?

I think Pawar is being hyped up too much. He may have been played by his own nephew and now he is finding a face saver by inaction. From the look of things, He lost his people before elections and now has lost almost all the legislatures to his nephew. I don't buy this that Pawar was actively working hands in gloves with AS to cut SS to size. With just one stroke, Supriya Sule's political future has become very untenable whether Pawar supports BJP or opposes them.
Funny thing now onwards, How does opposition trust each other ? Who knows who is in bed with whom ?

I personally think that AS choregraphed this whole show very well though there was always a risk of SS getting support from Cong in time and forming the govt.
For whatever it is worth now, Some of the SS MLA's would break the party and go back to being in the govt of DF. In Maha, very thin line divides political leaders from one another and they can happily exist in each others sphere.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Nov 2019 18:07

sajo21 wrote:I feel Sharad Pawar has royally gamed Maharashtra. Proved decisively today that it is Pawar and Pawar only who holds the strings in Maharashtra. BJP cannot claim victory today.

Sure, and the strings of the powerful attack.. that CBI and ED are, which AS and NM hold in their hands, is of no consequence eh?

Boss, SP is no child. He knows who has the power, skeletons in his closet and how it can power can be wielded by folks like AS who are ruthless practitioners of tradecraft.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 23 Nov 2019 18:23

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 18:34

pankajs wrote:
Rony wrote:Subramanian Swamy
@Swamy39
Message to the Nation: If you risk splitting the Hindutva movement you will be split
I think the message is deeper ... try poking Modi/BJP and we will take you to the cleaners. It is a message to allies as well as neutrals and opponents. Message to shore up support in RS now that some more important bills are lined up.

Added Later: Pawar era is finally over.

https://twitter.com/GabbbarSingh/status ... 1292154883

Gabbbar @GabbbarSingh

I think this BJP victory would also help them nationally. And after a prolonged battle, attracting eyeballs from the entire country, they showed they are the Boss. Everybody sides with the victorious.

IF BJP is able to pull it off a lot of riff-raffs across the country, who had started getting ideas, will suddenly discover the virtue of moderation.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 23 Nov 2019 18:46

Any merit to this angle ?

CA R S Mandora
@rsmandora
Replying to
@rahulroushan
I am worried for Ajit Pawar, he might have been trapped by Sharad Pawar. He might find himself standing alone with BJP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 18:50

Vikas wrote:I think Pawar is being hyped up too much. He may have been played by his own nephew and now he is finding a face saver by inaction. From the look of things, He lost his people before elections and now has lost almost all the legislatures to his nephew. I don't buy this that Pawar was actively working hands in gloves with AS to cut SS to size. With just one stroke, Supriya Sule's political future has become very untenable whether Pawar supports BJP or opposes them.
Funny thing now onwards, How does opposition trust each other ? Who knows who is in bed with whom ?

I personally think that AS choregraphed this whole show very well though there was always a risk of SS getting support from Cong in time and forming the govt.
For whatever it is worth now, Some of the SS MLA's would break the party and go back to being in the govt of DF. In Maha, very thin line divides political leaders from one another and they can happily exist in each others sphere.

On the first highlight; Possible but either ways BJP maneuvered Pawar, with or without his knowledge, to work for them on Sena. Pawar forced the withdrawal of the Sena Minister form the center amongst other things and that allowed Modi/Shah to re-jig the parliamentary seating of Sena MPs.

On the 2nd highlight; We now know there was no such risk because they had their very own spy, Ajit Pawar, part of the negotiating team! How convenient is that. Before that revelation, I would have agreed with you on the risk but not now.

Even if they had no spy inside they would still have a chance 'cos they had another very special spy of their own at the heart of the system of government formation i.e. the governor! Once the parties had come to some understanding, they would out of necessity have informed the Governor in advance to make arraignments. Modi/Shah would still have a day or 2 to engineer a status change. Remember the non-functional fax at the J&K governor house?

Btw, that reminds me, this quick draw and shoot was forced on the BJP because, it seems, the Sena/NCP/CON were nearing agreement.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 18:57

Rony wrote:Any merit to this angle ?

CA R S Mandora
@rsmandora
Replying to
@rahulroushan
I am worried for Ajit Pawar, he might have been trapped by Sharad Pawar. He might find himself standing alone with BJP.

What if this is just an diversion but the real action is going on somewhere else?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Nov 2019 19:03

Breaking: NDTV

Sena/NCP/CON to move SC on the invite to BJP.

Notice, instead of rushing to the Maha Governor with letter of support of more than 144 MLAs or better parade their MLAs, they are moving SC. What does that tell us?

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 23 Nov 2019 19:12

Very strange, a handful NCP MLA's with some unknown SS workers escort Ajit Pawar to Pawar saheb at his residence.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Nov 2019 19:12

Nothing is what it seems to outside world. Anyone remember NM saying "you'll all know who let D out" or something, few days back, SP met NM apparently on "farmer" related issues.