2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 13:58

Another observation before I forget ...

It is OK for BJP to split SS now that they have walked out the alliance in MH. Earlier, it would have been considered backstabbing and impacted its alliance partners outlook in other state. BUT such a thing would be the very last option.

Acts have consequences ... Another reason BJP forced SS to walk out rather than walk out on SS itself. That way SS can't go to the public crying dokha to gain sympathy.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 12 Nov 2019 13:59

abhijitm wrote:Not writing off SS chances of getting CMship. It is their complete moral fall and making mockery of itself.

If NCP, Cong has to form some form of gov then they will prefer a scapegoat in SS whom they can pull down anytime they wish. So there is definitely a chance for SS.

INC and NCP made a mockery of themselves and of Maharashtra and of India so many times. When they have not been eschewed by Maha voters, then why would SS fade into oblivion?

I wonder if many voters actually care for "moral fall".

Rsatchi wrote:If NCP and Cong join SS, It may become final consolidation of Maratha forces under Fadnavis.

Will Marathas agree to consolidate under a non-Maratha

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 14:03

Rsatchi wrote:Governor recommends Governor Rule
So the drama continues
Hoping that the 'Mooshaks' will start jumping the ship for some 'Modaks'
Now BJP needs about 25-30 'M'....k's
Are there sufficient 'Goberment Modaks' to keep them occupied for 5 yrs

Bhell ... surprise that he did not wait for NCP to get back!

As expected, the BJP had been walking the state into President's rule. Perhaps, CON had realized their mistake of last night and were more forthcoming on NCP and the BJP had to act in haste to prevent that.

So why the drama? Guess to keep the public opinion on their side when parties go crying "murder of democracy". Also, to afford the SS and opportunity to walk the plank.

SS/CP/CON will probably rush to the courts. Not unexpected. Now the real game of "permutation and combinations" will start.

nits · Post by **nits** » 12 Nov 2019 14:05

duplicate deleted

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 12 Nov 2019 14:36

Politics live | Maharashtra logjam: Maharshtra Governor office chairs crucial meeting

nits · Post by **nits** » 12 Nov 2019 14:56

Congress leader Sushil Shinde: There's no issue of Congress being late, we've been alert since beginning. We had asked them (NCP) if they've sent a letter (to Governor). Things will have to be done simultaneously, they're our partner. Whatever decision is taken, it'll be done together

so now Con putting blame for yesterdays fiasco on NCP for not issuing the letter of support

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 12 Nov 2019 15:26

No President's rule has been recommended. The governor's office just clarified.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 15:31

Pagle .. no friend of BJP or SS and a durbari.
https://twitter.com/waglenikhil/status/ ... 3444751360

nikhil wagle @waglenikhil

Congress has cheated Shiv Sena, with or without the help of NCP.

Turdesai .. while not happy with the situation but can't help take shots at BJP .. All while AS is chilling out after having set the ball rolling on political realignment in the state!
https://twitter.com/sardesairajdeep/sta ... 2919676929

Rajdeep Sardesai @sardesairajdeep

Shiv Sena was distributing ladoos at 7 pm, its leaders expecting the NCP-Cong letters of support. So who misled the Sena and why? Sena adventurism, NCP bargaining, Cong prevarication, BJP encircled. Maharashtra is a bloody Maha-mess!

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 12 Nov 2019 15:37

SS appeal in supreme court.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 15:41

OT >
But for the record and later reference ...
https://twitter.com/EPButler/status/1193954447761825792

Edward Butler @EPButler

Those who remained pagan beyond that point are then regarded as being fixated or regressive. There are distinct parallels in the academic treatment of other polytheistic civilizations.

Helps explain the attitude amongst "secular" academic circle around the globe about Hindus.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 Nov 2019 15:55

Actually this Maha mess is confusing many including me. Why oh why !!
1. Why is congress not extending support to SS immediately. Normally they would have been the first ones off the block.
What are they afraid of.
2. Why did SS walk out on BJP knowing fully well that Pawar/Sonia would backstab them to establish their secular credentials
3. Why hasn't some MLA's jumped and formed govt with BJP yet
4. Why is UT obsessed with CM post if it is not going to be UT himself. He could have bargained for more lucarative ministries instead.
5. Who the eff are UT's advisors ?
6. Do MLA's have enough money to go thru another round of elections in next 6 months and what if they end up with same numbers again ?
7. BJP was morally right and following dharma. They did not pull a fast one on SS and yet they are also getting some blame.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 12 Nov 2019 15:59

abhijitm wrote:SS appeal in supreme court.

But Why? Sanjay Saheb had said they had 175 MLA

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 Nov 2019 16:01

Kashi wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Not writing off SS chances of getting CMship. It is their complete moral fall and making mockery of itself.

Will Marathas agree to consolidate under a non-Maratha

Probably not with current forces stacked against him but Bajirao did bring them together.
Why would someone prefer Maha corrupt Maratha leaders that ruled Mah in 90's and 00' is beyond me.

Of course why would a Maharashtrian person living all his life in Maha since Adams be called a Non-Marathi baffles me.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 Nov 2019 16:03

kvraghav wrote:
abhijitm wrote:SS appeal in supreme court.
But Why? Sanjay Saheb had said they had 175 MLA

Misfortunately Sanjay ~~Jha~~ raut had to visit hospital after making this statement.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 16:05

Oh .. seems that he tweeted from the hospital bed that SS will get the CMship. Not to worry .. things are on track.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 12 Nov 2019 16:18

Doubt this cabinet move will stand good in SC. Looks like to me bjp played its last card. Now if SC takes control then 'ram bharose' anything can happen.

nits · Post by **nits** » 12 Nov 2019 16:32

kvraghav wrote:
abhijitm wrote:SS appeal in supreme court.
But Why? Sanjay Saheb had said they had 175 MLA

haha

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 16:43

Looks like NCP wrote a letter to the Gov asking for a further 48 hrs and indicating its inability to form the government in the given 24 hrs. The Gov used that "inability" expressed in the letter to promptly recommend President's rule. That was fast.

First phase is over and the next phase has started.

I don't know why the SS has gone to the SC. The assembly has not been dissolved so they can continue their efforts to assemble a coalition of the willing and take it to the Gov even after the President rule has been applied. That will unlock the gates of power for them. Gov. is duty bound.

I think SS has realize that the dog and pony show organized by the BJP for the public consumption has been hastily pulled down. Now BJP can get on with its style of coalition building AFTER noting the failure of the opposition's effort.

How fair of the BJP. They will point to the dog and pony to buttress their fairness claims.

Sigh .. such are the burdens of being the single largest party.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 12 Nov 2019 17:08

Not sure what BJP gains by this haste President’s rule. Those 3 parties can still form alliance any time, as long as assembly isn’t dissolved.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 12 Nov 2019 17:13

greatde wrote:Not sure what BJP gains by this haste President’s rule. Those 3 parties can still form alliance any time, as long as assembly isn’t dissolved.

yeh, may be BJP played the last card and resigned from the game. Over to NCP, Cong and SS.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 17:16

1. Outside support won't work for a coalition. Necessarily, ALL parties must be in.
2. BUT that poses a ideological problem for the CON. They have to square the circle.
3. Best way to achieve is to get a CON or a NCP CM as the face of the coalition, perhaps Pawarful himself will take the crown of thorn.
4. Will not work for SS.
5. The next option is a common minumim program with some sickular commitment in writing from the SS that CON can show its voters and supporters.
6. While SS might get the CM chair, it will have to part with plum portfolios for NCP/CON. SS is on the backfoot having burnt its bridge while BJP still has the option of splitting opposition or aligning with NCP.

NCP is best positioned. SS and CON can't get anything on their own without the NCP where as NCP/Pawar can cut a deal with BJP and get something even for outside support. This is just getting started.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 12 Nov 2019 17:39

Vikas wrote:
Kashi wrote:
Probably not with current forces stacked against him but Bajirao did bring them together.
Why would someone prefer Maha corrupt Maratha leaders that ruled Mah in 90's and 00' is beyond me.

Of course why would a Maharashtrian person living all his life in Maha since Adams be called a Non-Marathi baffles me.

Non-Maratha is not the same as Non-Marathi

Maratha is being referred to in the caste sense.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 12 Nov 2019 18:09

President’s rule imposed

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 12 Nov 2019 18:18

Congress wont take a chance of supporting SS/NCP for being in partial power in Maharashtra in view of the immediate elections coming up in Jharkhand and Delhi.
If they support SS/NCP then it would be surely a 4 cornered contest in West Bengal elections too (Mamta would not take a chance of any understanding with them to get her Bangladeshi votes, ditto the commies) and BJP would be the gainer there.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 18:26

Just heard on India Today TV:

1. NCP insisting that CON be part of the government for this to work.

Now tell me, is Pawar working for himself or BJP hanji? Why force CON to align with SS? Who will benefit out of that?

2. CON insisting on a common minimum program.

Now, as sure as day follows night, such a program will have some sickular throwaways to shield CON for joining hand with SS. Enlightened friends, will such a document spell growth or disaster for SS? Who is Pawar working for? Will it benefit the most?

eNjoy till this lasts.

Between 5:55 and 6:00 pm broadcast, their National Affairs Editor was exactly laying out the scenario that had been put before the forum on BJP's game plan.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 19:02

Just a while back, turdesai made an interesting observation on India Today live.

When the NCP has time till 8:30 pm why did it shoot the letter to the Gov. so early? Did Pawar calculate that it would allow the central cabinet to decide on the matter immediately!

To which, its National Affairs editor sadi something to the effect that it all seems to be coordinated!

He further went on to say that the trio of Pawar, Shah and Modi seem to read each other pretty well without the need to speak.

Iz there a "pre-poll" understanding between Modi and Pawar? Perhaps on how to screw both CON and SS together. All speculation of course.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Nov 2019 19:06

SBajwa wrote:after bringing Mayawati, Akhilesh yadav, Laloo yadav, Kumarswamy and Chandrababu naidu down now Congress eyes Udhav Thakrey!!!

paswan is the next rebel who seems to have gone rogue.

He has announced that he will be going it alone in jharkhand.

Wonder if someone shot down his fond hopes of becoming the next VP.

anyway, the termites are slowly coming out of the woodwork and can now be picked off one by one.

There is definitely a bihar play in progress because otherwise, this chameleon would not have shown his hand this early.

nitishwa must be laying the ground work to make a grand exit, especially after the RJB verdict.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Nov 2019 19:14

If Prez rule imposed, does that mean re-election? Post-RJB?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Nov 2019 19:42

pankajs wrote:Just heard on India Today TV:

1. NCP insisting that CON be part of the government for this to work.

Now tell me, is Pawar working for himself or BJP hanji? Why force CON to align with SS? Who will benefit out of that?

2. CON insisting on a common minimum program.

Now, as sure as day follows night, such a program will have some sickular throwaways to shield CON for joining hand with SS. Enlightened friends, will such a document spell growth or disaster for SS? Who is Pawar working for? Will it benefit the most?

eNjoy till this lasts.

Between 5:55 and 6:00 pm broadcast, their National Affairs Editor was exactly laying out the scenario that had been put before the forum on BJP's game plan.

everyone is taking the SS, especially UT and son as minor bit part players of no consequence in the NCP govt formation. The SS is the largest party in this sadak chaap coalition of entitled power seekers and yet it is being treated as being almost untouchable.

Per TV report, the congis want one cabinet berth for every 4 MLAs so it keeps then on an even footing with the NCP.

Also, they are pushing the NCP to make a bid for the CM's gaddi so UT has been told that he will be the CM for only one half of the term. No idea of what his response is, so far.

No heavyweight or malai ministries are being given to the SS.

So yesterday's "kingmaker" has become today's peon cum watchman waiting, hat in hand, for the hukum of the maliks.

what a low IQ negotiator, to end up with his principal role reversed and his most potent advantage nullified in just a matter of a single day. Why did he burn bridges without something in writing from the NCP.

added to all this, he seems to have given away his own letter of support to both the NCP and the congis while they have not even shown him their letters.

Both the NCP and the congis desperately want to recover from the fadnavis's destruction of their rural infrastructure of plunder. The congi/NCP domination over the farm cooperatives, the sugar factory unions, the coop banks and the APMC yards control had all been vaporized by Fadnavis.

UT and the SS had their beady eyes on many of these organizations because of the vast sums it could very easily generate and the large patronage these networks could provide to consolidate future vote banks.

have the pawarful people lost their erstwhile magical touch.

or is the other side simply so much better at their job.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Nov 2019 19:52

UlanBatori wrote:If Prez rule imposed, does that mean re-election? Post-RJB?

Could it possibly have been gamed just this way

many MLA's are broke post elections and want to join the "govt" to recoup their losses, make up their kitty and then some.

I figure that a slightly longish spell of president's rule will panic them and cause a lot of SS and congi small timers to abandon the sinking ships and just maybe clamber on to the lurking luxury liner nearby.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 12 Nov 2019 20:00

nachiket wrote:
abhijitm wrote: Thought occur to me but SP is shrewd enough to understand political somersaults. There is no guarantee that bjp and SS will not form alliance again with this time a better understanding of power sharing. If they do then NCP gamed. Because both SS and BJP will go after them with full vengeance.
Which BJP voter is going to go out and vote for a SS candidate again after this betrayal? Most are very angry right now that their vote might end up going to Pawar when they wanted Fadnavis. SS has lost those voters already. There is no way they can hope to fight the next elections together.

Absolutely true. Vote transfer in next few election will not happen at all even if they both agree to fight together.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Nov 2019 20:01

SBajwa wrote:
chetak wrote:
after white vaisty's tihar sojourn, all bets are off.

Many gasbags, big bang, phone wielding, speed dialling dilli lawyers are very very quiet.

Squarely in the crosshairs of the sniper scope are several prominent personages from both the congis and NCP. Some court-mandated FIRs have already been filed.

So, right now, for anyone except the BJP forming the govt in MAH, it may turn out to be quite injurious to their collective health.

the BJP has successfully managed to get UT, of his own free will, to commit political suicide, publicly, and for the lust of power.

UT and AT who died politically yesterday, still do not know for sure who, in reality, owned the knife and who really stabbed them both in the back. They did not even see it coming

one thing has now been proven beyond all shadow of a doubt.

Fadvanis is not a liar.

For the BJP. their biggest problem is gone. Rumours are flying fast and thick that the SS may split and a big chunk may side with the BJP.

the only power that UT now has left is his letter of support.

Will he give it or will he not give it to the NCP and on that piece of paper is written his political future or just maybe even the lack of it.

mere numbers like 56(ss)+54(ncp)+44(con) = 154 do not even begin to describe the actual picture on the ground.

The BJP will cast a long shadow on all the events unfolding today.

I think Raj Thackrey (Nephew of Bal Thackrey) could become a real leader in Maharashtra if he decides to join BJP. He has a huge potential.

he doesn't seem right in the head and the BJP will not touch him because he has campaigned against them for the ncp/congi lot very recently by saying things that the ncp/congi lot would never dare to say

hired assassin

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Nov 2019 20:02

Is Greater Mumbai Great enough to become a UT I wonder.. just wondering of course.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 12 Nov 2019 20:07

UlanBatori wrote:Is Greater Mumbai Great enough to become a UT I wonder.. just wondering of course.

No party will dare do that.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 12 Nov 2019 20:14

UlanBatori wrote:If Prez rule imposed, does that mean re-election? Post-RJB?

Judging from Haryana/MH elections, BJP didnt benefit. As the support groups didnt turn up to vote in large numbers Unless it a wave or a world cup final type election, these 370 action, RJB verdict, doesnt have election impact.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Nov 2019 20:32

370 maybe is a {yawn} but RJB may be different? Only thing bigger I can imagine (and still feasible) is improving parking in Muzzafarabad.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 12 Nov 2019 20:37

So, it is 'Ram' rajya for now in MH. In my opinion Amit should declare open season on the Sh!t Sena, including splitting the party in MH and also try to merge their MPs in the LS and RS into the BJP.

By this time is should be clear that Uddhavan and Adityan's one track agenda is to install Adityan as CM....they do not care about anything and anyone else. They can keep going at it while 'other efforts' are ongoing.

PS: it is also true that parties in the NDA such as LJP, AD, etc are basically family enterprises. All these guys will also go belly up. E.g., LJP is starting SS-like antics in Jharkhand.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 20:57

NCP/CON presser ducked a lot of question on SS and the ideological conflict by taking the line that an agreement has to be reached between NCP and CON before any discussion can happen with SS.

Also, notice the SS has gone to court using a CON lawyer but CON and NCP are taking it light. SS is desperate to get the invite back to get into the drivers seat that has been usurped by NCP.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 12 Nov 2019 20:59

It looks like BJP is again trying to form govt

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 12 Nov 2019 21:03

KL Dubey wrote:So, it is 'Ram' rajya for now in MH. In my opinion Amit should declare open season on the Sh!t Sena, including splitting the party in MH and also try to merge their MPs in the LS and RS into the BJP.

By this time is should be clear that Uddhavan and Adityan's one track agenda is to install Adityan as CM....they do not care about anything and anyone else. They can keep going at it while 'other efforts' are ongoing.

PS: it is also true that parties in the NDA such as LJP, AD, etc are basically family enterprises. All these guys will also go belly up. E.g., LJP is starting SS-like antics in Jharkhand.

Mr Rane has openly said that he has been given charge to make sure that BJP form the government.
Now if he can poach few from SS+NCP+Con then that would be poetic justice for Pawar's role in toppling Atalji's Government!!
Hope that happens and the loser's can keep crying on Money Power