2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

sum wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
Absolutely not him. Whoever comes after NaMo must be as dharmaic as one can be. DF is anything but dharmic. From allowing burial ground near temple to allowing feminazis to desecrate temples, to his wife having lunch EJs abroad, he shouldn't be anywhere near PM chair. David is actually a good name for him. And this guy today talks about SS's hindutva.

Yes, he got infra projects underway and is not scam tainted. But these are necessary conditions but not sufficient to be PM.
What exactly is sufficient reasons, saar?

As per this logic, there are exactly 0 people who would be fit for the PM post for the next 20-30 years atleast( assuming your assumption is that being a uber-Hindu and being in power is the only criterion)
:(
chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter
A JNU student from a poor family, who receives financial support of Rs 40,000/month is poor, middle income or rich? Ans: With Rs 4,80,000 income, tax exemption of 2,50, 000, he has to pay 5% tax on 2,30,000 +cess. He is a middle income earner, defined by Indi communists as poor!
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

Karthik S wrote:
sum wrote: What exactly is sufficient reasons, saar?

As per this logic, there are exactly 0 people who would be fit for the PM post for the next 20-30 years atleast( assuming your assumption is that being a uber-Hindu and being in power is the only criterion)
:(
Karthikji
Should not south be given a chance again
How about Nirmala Sitharam with AS as Deputy PM and Home Minister
Could be good optics: A Woman PM after IG, Southerner, from TN(may help win few seats in TN with Tamil chauvnism :D :D ), speaks well in public, easier to control from behind the scene for AS :lol: , late Sushmaji would definitely be happy another 'Bindi Lady' will be leading(I.e., dharmic), no taint of riot/killings
Cons: no broad based support, Non Hindi belt, not chanakyan enough to screw the Congi/Liberandu/Leftist/Jihandi's
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

Even I believed DF was being groomed for higher things. The kind of muck he has deflected with consummate ease, as well as decimated his opponents' strongholds ruthlessly, while appearing calm and unruffled and harmless on the outside points to someone with more layers to his personality than he is given credit for. A term or two more of MH and he would have definitely been ready to handle even more responsibility.

I also believe immediately going after Sr. PWR via ED would invite massive backlash in the MH Hinterland. There is immense adulation for him, a large populace who is willing to gloss over his (mis)deeds, with the simple explanation of "He has done a lot for us" without being actually quantify that. Can go for him only if we are able to successfully discredit him first.
nachiket
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

I remember Shivraj Chouhan was once talked about as a possible successor to Modi. Then he lost. Then Fadnavis was discussed as a possibility by some people. Now he's out. Seems talking about someone as Modiji's successor is the biggest Panauti. Best not to talk about anyone else unless you want their fortunes to take a downturn in the next elections.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

Not necessarily PM, but certainly many important portfolios.

I can think of 1 way to certainly discredit the PWR ecosystem is to somehow get Karachiwala back. Right now his testaments are anyway shackled by the ISI. If MAD project it as his "rescue" and somehow smuggle him out, it would be an OBL moment for us.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SaraLax »

nachiket wrote:I remember Shivraj Chouhan was once talked about as a possible successor to Modi. Then he lost. Then Fadnavis was discussed as a possibility by some people. Now he's out. Seems talking about someone as Modiji's successor is the biggest Panauti. Best not to talk about anyone else unless you want their fortunes to take a downturn in the next elections.
So AS cannot be a successor to NaMo ?.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

somdev wrote:BJP was equally greedy in the first place. Why did it go for a pre poll alliance with an unstable ally like Shiv Sena? Uddhav has been signalling for a long time. Even a 2.5 years rotational chair would have worked in BJP's favour. I guess sometimes arrogance of power leads to downfall. Every party every leader has aspirations. In hindsight nothing wrong would have happened if Uddhav would have been CM for 2.5 yesrs!
That opens pandora's box. Every state where BJP has alliance will require that formula to be implemented.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Even NaMo would not have qualified to be PM of Bharat if we go by stringent conditions put by some of the posters here.
DF ran a clean, corruption free and a competent administration in Maha. Calling him David or casting aspersions on his spouse are cheap shots at best.
I think among BJP leaders, he is among top 5 to be groomed for PM'ship along with Yogi Ji, SI and NS.
somdev wrote:BJP was equally greedy in the first place. Why did it go for a pre poll alliance with an unstable ally like Shiv Sena? Uddhav has been signalling for a long time. Even a 2.5 years rotational chair would have worked in BJP's favour. I guess sometimes arrogance of power leads to downfall. Every party every leader has aspirations. In hindsight nothing wrong would have happened if Uddhav would have been CM for 2.5 yesrs!
Somdev, Having aspirations is great but one must have the strength to back up those aspirations. Every MLA aspires to be a CM someday, isn't it. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. maybe in 2 years, Hindsight will tell us that UT betraying BJP was the best thing that could have happened for BJP.

SS with half the seats could not have asked for rotating CM chair. Why should BJP allow someone else to claim CM chair without having the required numbers. Politics is not charity. Suddenly you make it sound like it is BJP's fault that UT got greedy and backstabbed BJP. Where do you find BJP to be greedy in all this unless BJP was expected to roll over and die. They stuck with SS despite daily snide remarks, bickering and whining. Even SS win percentage in last elections was less than BJP.

Worse UT joined Anti-Indic forces led by the bar maid and D-gang member. This is the Rajputana rulers joining Akbar for sliver of land moment for Bharat.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

How about this for Counter optics :
While Sonia Sena takes an oath in the name of Sonia Maino, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav in the lobby of a five star hotel, BJP Could take their 105+14 to a fort (Shivneri?) of their choice and take an oath in the name of "Rashtra and Rashtra alone".
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter

For the second time 26/11 was a day where Cong-NCP were successful in Maharashtra.
Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

For some posters here, being a good admin and lack of corruption is sole requirement to be a leader of Bharat. They'll be ok even if akbar the great becomes CM/PM. I guess these are the people who used to work in courtyards of and bend their knees to such rulers.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sivab »

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1199571732664741896
Republic‏
Verified account
@republic
3h3 hours ago
More
#ShahAtRepublicSummit | Plan of action and its time - I don't believe it should be openly discussed - as they're matters of security. At the right time, like Article 370, it should be executed: Union Home Minister @AmitShah at #RepublicSummit
https://republicworld.com/livetv.html
Watch the video. AS says PoK should be taken back just like 370. :lol:
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Bhell ...

https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/11 ... 8217348101
News18 @CNNnews18

#NewsAlert – Uddhav Thackeray to be leader of ‘Mahavikas Aghadi’. Sharad Pawar tells Uddhav, “You will have to obey me.”

@vinivdvc with details.

#MahaPoliticalYudh
Looks like Pawarful has decided to finis Sena and CON on his own! Uddhav will beg Shah/Modi for malai, Pawarful will digest it it while Uddhav will get the blame. :rotfl:

Will be interesting to watch BMC now. Will Pawarful demand a share of BMC too from Sena?
Last edited by pankajs on 27 Nov 2019 15:46, edited 1 time in total.
chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter
A sniff of power, and the bigotry unleashed. These jhola chhaap lal salaam commies then call other communal and casteist. That's how it works.



nikhil wagle Verified account @waglenikhil

It is said Brahmins of Maharashtra are unhappy with Fadnavis’ exit. They thought it was their government. But Bahujans and rural masses are very happy to have this new anti-BJP government led by Uddhav http://Thackeray.It is a clear polarisation. Who cares for 3 % Brahmins!

1:03 AM - 27 Nov 2019
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Looks like Tiger has turned into a house cat and that too on leash!

While BJP lost the last hand to hand with Pawarful, it wouldn't be to unhappy with the end result. A Tiger tamed and chained is good news for it in the long run.

One BIG reason why BJP has to record its flip on Savarkar BEFORE the Tiger turned House Cat starts resenting the leash and tries turning kamoonal again. Get them to vote against BR for Savarkar while they are feeling top of the world and at ease with their new friends. BJP, please don't wait for more than 3 months to pop the question.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/teasri/status/1199484571491983360
Sri Thiruvadanthai @teasri

Under Modi/Shah BJP has been relentless in spreading its geographic reach and, in places where it already a presence, in becoming the dominant player. This was bound to come in conflict with family fiefdoms. Family fiefdoms have more in common with each other than with the BJP.
But such coming together of family concerns is inherently unstable. It also sharpens the contrast in favor of BJP and helps it long term. The BJP could have accepted SS's demands but the former would have kept ratcheting it up. Their insecurity stems from fear of long-term.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Let NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress government in MH clearly understand that some MLAs are just not for sale. For example Com. Vinod Nikole of CPI(M) the sole communist MLA in whole of MH 8). Off course nay-sayers would say that this MLA is any way a non-saleable commodity. Such nay-sayers also used to ridicule Com. Prakash Karat and called him jobless when he was busy scouting the Delhi market to buy vegetables so that Com. B Karat could cook lunch.
pankajs wrote:Looks like Pawarful has decided to finis Sena and CON on his own! Uddhav will beg Shah/Modi for malai, Pawarful will digest it it while Uddhav will get the blame.
Not an expert in MH (or Indian) politics any way. But I now get a feeling that:-
1. If any one who made an Ullu of every one (BJP, SS, Congress) it is NCP and Pawar. The Pawar clan has now once agained joined hands (Ajit & Supriya et.al). I can only now sing Na Ullu banawein.. 8).
2. For all practical reasons this is going to be a NCP government which would run the show. Shiv Sena would be reduced the role of a Shikhandi only kept there to take all the taunts, insults and responsibility of wrong moves.
3. The main stream media would do as much as jugglery and magic show as possible to "convince" people that all is fine.

There seems to be many things in common with the political situation which evolved in KA.
1. In KA we had JD(S) who is pretty much a state level party just like how MH had Shiv Sena.
2. There was also a strong KA based faction of INC under command Siddaramiah, where as in MH it was a small subsidiary party which was NCP.
3. When the "pongal/kichdi" government was formed in KA at the first instance it was thought that JD(S) would be running the show with rest of the seculars giving moral support. In MH too an impression is now being created that Shiv Sena would be in absolute control, CM would be from that party and others would just play along (with BJP sitting aside sulking).
4. Later during the run (in KA) it slowly reached to a situation that Siddaramiah faction expected much more control on the government and pretty much make Kumaraswamy a mobile rubber stamp. This may happen in MH too with NCP donning the role of Siddu & Co.
5. Kumaraswamy on the other hand got frusturated, and there were multiple round of theatrics (crying, threat of swollowing poison etc.) mainly intended to his voter base. Udhav Thackeray may also land up in a similar situation, when he finds that keeping to his "internally promised" commitments to various money bags and Shiv Sena leaders cannot be adhered to.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Such khidi paak raha hai (Some thing is cooking)

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1199526742987198464
TIMES NOW @TimesNow

#Breaking | @RahulGandhi & @PriyankaGandhi reach Tihar jail to meet former FM @PChidambaram_IN.
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Sachin wrote:There seems to be many things in common with the political situation which evolved in KA.
1. In KA we had JD(S) who is pretty much a state level party just like how MH had Shiv Sena.
2. There was also a strong KA based faction of INC under command Siddaramiah, where as in MH it was a small subsidiary party which was NCP.
3. When the "pongal/kichdi" government was formed in KA at the first instance it was thought that JD(S) would be running the show with rest of the seculars giving moral support. In MH too an impression is now being created that Shiv Sena would be in absolute control, CM would be from that party and others would just play along (with BJP sitting aside sulking).
4. Later during the run (in KA) it slowly reached to a situation that Siddaramiah faction expected much more control on the government and pretty much make Kumaraswamy a mobile rubber stamp. This may happen in MH too with NCP donning the role of Siddu & Co.
5. Kumaraswamy on the other hand got frusturated, and there were multiple round of theatrics (crying, threat of swollowing poison etc.) mainly intended to his voter base. Udhav Thackeray may also land up in a similar situation, when he finds that keeping to his "internally promised" commitments to various money bags and Shiv Sena leaders cannot be adhered to.
Sooner or later Pawarful asks for the keys to BMC, which till date, BJP had let Sena have it alone! It was the Source of Sena's power in Mumbai. While it will take a while for that to happen, I am all eyes and ears for that lakshman rekha to be crossed.

Also, while the going between the alliance partners is really good, BJP should ask Sena to vote against Bharat Ratna for Savarkar and get that recorded on the house for the inevitable moment when the chained House cat will want to morph back into a Tiger. It will mostly likely try the Native + Hindutva card, where Savarkar fits beautifully. BJP should also try to appropriate Shivaji Maharaj's legacy by playing up his Hindu credentials/words/deeds just so that they are ready for the Sena when it makes a play to get out of chains.

Pawarful was quite blatant about it! Very surprising at the beginning of the new alliance.
Last edited by pankajs on 27 Nov 2019 16:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Karthik S wrote:For some posters here, being a good admin and lack of corruption is sole requirement to be a leader of Bharat. They'll be ok even if akbar the great becomes CM/PM. I guess these are the people who used to work in courtyards of and bend their knees to such rulers.
Karthik Ji, Pls let us know what is NaMo providing other than a clean and competent administration unless you don't consider him fit to be the PM ?
You are a respected member here, Why post Knee jerk reactions with snide remarks.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:
Sachin wrote:
Pawarful was quite blatant about it! Very surprising at the beginning of the new alliance.
Looks like Pawarful has Uddhav by the b@lls. His comment cannot be read any other way.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Picklu »

MP, 36gad, Raj, MH , PUNJ and JKND soon vs only GJ n UP

Not going for jugular in states will cause problems in center as well via RS

1. The second rung after Amit Shah is not at all ready for big time.
2. AS as a minister is not able to devote as much time for electioneering.
3. RaGa out of scenery means battle hardened Con oldies are real opponent decision makers like Ahmad Patel, Hooda, Kamalnath, Gehlot, Captain etc
4. Con finds no issue playing second fiddle to other regional satraps like TMC, NCP, RJD, JDS etc where they are not strong to keep BJP away (Bihar, KA loss but MH is win and so may be JKND)
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

pankajs wrote:
Sachin wrote:There seems to be many things in common with the political situation which evolved in KA.
1. In KA we had JD(S) who is pretty much a state level party just like how MH had Shiv Sena.
2. There was also a strong KA based faction of INC under command Siddaramiah, where as in MH it was a small subsidiary party which was NCP.
3. When the "pongal/kichdi" government was formed in KA at the first instance it was thought that JD(S) would be running the show with rest of the seculars giving moral support. In MH too an impression is now being created that Shiv Sena would be in absolute control, CM would be from that party and others would just play along (with BJP sitting aside sulking).
4. Later during the run (in KA) it slowly reached to a situation that Siddaramiah faction expected much more control on the government and pretty much make Kumaraswamy a mobile rubber stamp. This may happen in MH too with NCP donning the role of Siddu & Co.
5. Kumaraswamy on the other hand got frusturated, and there were multiple round of theatrics (crying, threat of swollowing poison etc.) mainly intended to his voter base. Udhav Thackeray may also land up in a similar situation, when he finds that keeping to his "internally promised" commitments to various money bags and Shiv Sena leaders cannot be adhered to.
Sooner or later Pawarful asks for the keys to BMC, which till date, BJP had let Sena have it alone! It was the Source of Sena's power in Mumbai. While it will take a while for that to happen, I am all eyes and ears for that lakshman rekha to be crossed.

Also, while the going between the alliance partners is really good, BJP should ask Sena to vote against Bharat Ratna for Savarkar and get that recorded on the house for the inevitable moment when the chained House cat will want to morph back into a Tiger. It will mostly likely try the Native + Hindutva card, where Savarkar fits beautifully. BJP should also try to appropriate Shivaji Maharaj's legacy by playing up his Hindu credentials/words/deeds just so that they are ready for the Sena makes a play to get out of chains.
But Pankajs, Why do we think that UT will play possum and let Pawar family run the show from behind the curtains. Shiv Sena can always bicker and act belligerent knowing fully well that no one wants elections right away and NCP now can not go with BJP having burnt the bridge of trust.
In this game of chess, He atleast has achieved the dream of making a Sainik as CM.
Dislike him as much but first round goes to UT.

I doubt if Pawar needs money from BMC, He has numerous other sources which DF was trying to firewall successfully but would be fun to see if SS fights BMC elections in alliance with NCP provided the govt survives till then.
Savarakar to me is BJP Project and Shiv Sena would have no clue about his ideology except that he too was a Maratha. But How big is Savarakar name in Maha is the question ?
Shiv Sena will never vote against Savarakar and its not very hard for them to vote for this motion.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Picklu wrote:MP, 36gad, Raj, MH , PUNJ and JKND soon vs only GJ n UP

Not going for jugular in states will cause problems in center as well via RS

1. The second rung after Amit Shah is not at all ready for big time.
2. AS as a minister is not able to devote as much time for electioneering.
3. RaGa out of scenery means battle hardened Con oldies are real opponent decision makers like Ahmad Patel, Hooda, Kamalnath, Gehlot, Captain etc
4. Con finds no issue playing second fiddle to other regional satraps like TMC, NCP, RJD, JDS etc where they are not strong to keep BJP away (Bihar, KA loss but MH is win and so may be JKND)
Picklu Ji, Winning Second term is always hard for any political party and how long would voters vote only for NM knowing that NM already is in center. The caste and regional barriers still are pretty high in India in absence of a wave.
My hope is that Congress never wins when they are incumbent so we may see a different color of the map in 5 years time. Till then keep the powder dry.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kvraghav »

NCP AND CONG are ok with re election. They will get elected due to the alliance. NCP can ask for anything and UT should provide it.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

Guys, what was the meeting between NM and SP all about? I thought may be SP asked NM to forget his misdeeds in return for giving support to BJP and NM refused, if not this, I fail to see what else could have transpired between the two.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by syam »

imo the sheer opportunism shown by these parties shocked everyone. it will take some time to recover from it.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

Shiv Sena MLAs have already preempted the Bharat Ratna argument by stating that they would rather give Bharat Ratna to Jyotiba Phule.
BR Savarkar is seen as a more of a preserve of the Brahmins, while Phule with his anti Brahmin views and education reforms are seen more as pro-aam-aadmin and BJP will find it difficult to counter it without the LeLi Media and its gullible consumers going bonkers over the caste prioritization.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Vikas wrote:But Pankajs, Why do we think that UT will play possum and let Pawar family run the show from behind the curtains. Shiv Sena can always bicker and act belligerent knowing fully well that no one wants elections right away and NCP now can not go with BJP having burnt the bridge of trust.
In this game of chess, He atleast has achieved the dream of making a Sainik as CM.
Dislike him as much but first round goes to UT.

I doubt if Pawar needs money from BMC, He has numerous other sources which DF was trying to firewall successfully but would be fun to see if SS fights BMC elections in alliance with NCP provided the govt survives till then.
Savarakar to me is BJP Project and Shiv Sena would have no clue about his ideology except that he too was a Maratha. But How big is Savarakar name in Maha is the question ?
Shiv Sena will never vote against Savarakar and its not very hard for them to vote for this motion.
Why does Pawarful want power? He already has other sources. NCP/AP could have gone with BJP and protected its other sources temporarily at least.
1. Power means more loot, which wouldn't happen with BJP but with Sena the BMC bank becomes within reach in theory.
2. Why would Pawarful allow Sena to cream all malai from BMC when he was the one who stitched the alliance?
3. Pawarful was willing to sit in the opposition while Sena was not. Pawarful can go back to his original stance. No gain and no loss but where will that leave Sena?
4. Pawarful kept his alliance intact where as Sena broke its. Who has greater face and this leverage?
5. Pawarful did not switch side but Sena did. Who will be under more pressure to maintain the alliance?
6. Pawarful can switch sides easier than Sena. Sena burnt it bridges and to some extent Ajit but not Pawarful. He has been very careful.

a. For all the above reasons and more, Sena can throw all the tantrums that it wants BUT Pawarful has the upper hand and will extract his malai and get his cut from BMC too.
b. No one wants election but between Pawarful and Sena, it is Sena that has to fear more.
c. In the game of chess, Sena extracted the CM ship and gave away its b@lls to Pawarful for safe keeping. :rotfl:
d. Sena just turned "green" and IF it votes for Savarkar it will turn "Saffron" again! That will not matter to NCP but burn CON.

Do you think I care which way Sena votes? NO .. This is a game where BJP wins no matter how Sena votes. Sena votes against Savarkar and hands BJP an issue in Maharashtra. Sena votes for Savarkar and hands BJP an issue against CON in Maha and outside. After-all, why was CON reluctant to join Sena? Why did CON comm head for Maha tweet that Bharat Ratna has to be decided by the Center with no role for the state? He is trying to pre-empt the exact play I am asking for. So what do you do when you opponent has broadcast its weakness? WELL .. you invent a way to attack that weakness with all the force you can muster and force them and their partners to take a stand. Simple!

In politics you test EVERY crack in an alliance with a new tactics and bring out the dissonance. Pour petrol over every crack and light the fire and watch the alliance wither away.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

sajo wrote:Shiv Sena MLAs have already preempted the Bharat Ratna argument by stating that they would rather give Bharat Ratna to Jyotiba Phule.
BR Savarkar is seen as a more of a preserve of the Brahmins, while Phule with his anti Brahmin views and education reforms are seen more as pro-aam-aadmin and BJP will find it difficult to counter it without the LeLi Media and its gullible consumers going bonkers over the caste prioritization.
Sure ... BJP can introduce legislation to recommend BR for BOTH Savarkar and Phule. Does BJP loose anything .. NO :wink:

Politics is the art of possibles! Let Sena vote Savarkar, the Hindutva Icon, down. Game on hai.

Btw, Preemption is a very funny word when used incorrectly. The way to stop BJP in its track will be for Sena to propose BR for Tipu Sultan or Aurangzeb or Arzal Khan. I tell you BJP will have fits. :rotfl: That would be check mate. Would Sena propose that?

The real preemption would be for Sena to introduce the legislation on Savarkar themselves. :rotfl: BJP will go :mrgreen: with envy. Hows that? Hopefully CON will swallow their pride and accept the inevitable for the sake of the alliance and keeping BJP out of power. I would love that outcome too. The eggs will be transferred form BJP's face to Sonia's face.

This is how you test an alliance's fidelity. This how BJP can ensure the love between Sena and CON grows stronger with time. What is not to like?
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

kvraghav wrote:NCP AND CONG are ok with re election. They will get elected due to the alliance. NCP can ask for anything and UT should provide it.
Correct!

Sena broke its alliance, NCP/CON did not. Sena is exposed not NCP. If it comes to breakup and re-election, Sena is the worst placed with all its acrobatics.

NCP/CON have stated many time that their mandate is to sit in the opposition. For them, it could not get worse with a breakup. The same cannot be said for Sena.

If an election were to be held today it would be 3-cornered fight between Sena, NCP/CON and BJP. Who will loose the max is not difficult to guess.

Sena HAS to keep the alliance intact because it has the most to loose. Therefore, it will HAVE to make the maximum compromise.
Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

So SS spokesperson says bullet train costs too much, they'll halt cutting of trees in Aarey and scrap Nanar refinery. Well done MH, give nearly 100 odd seats to NCP and congress, lazy farmers living on govt doles can drink their pi$$, as AP once said before. And oh yes, mumbaikars, be ready for illegal BDs.
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Looks like public posturing ...

1. Bullet train would be a central project. Cost should not matter to the state.
2. Aarey trees cutting is done. It is already halted.

Refinery can be hit.
Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

Land acquisition is still going on in MH. They can always stop car shed at Aarey. But really hope they don't stop any infra projects.
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

I was commenting on the cost portion and Aarey tree cutting logic does not work.

NJP can lead an agitation on Aarey that will resonate with a lot of folks. There are no more trees at stake now and people but commuters especially will buy it.
Last edited by pankajs on 27 Nov 2019 17:55, edited 1 time in total.
KJo
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

I don't know why people are blaming Maharashtrians or Mumbaikars for what transpired. It was squarely the fault of BJP and Sena, and more so the BJP and Amit Shah. The people voted for the alliance and put them in a majority. This is the desired outcome and it happened. If BJP and Sena cannot take it from there, it is no one's fault.

I have an ultra RW friend who keeps blaming "fickle Hindus" for this, how is it their fault?

If anyone, I would blame the top brass of the BJP for not seeing through Sena's intentions and going into the election on it's own rather than together. That way they could have contested all seats and in all likelihood have a majority themselves or be very close to it. By contesting fewer seats, they ceded ground to SS who went paki on them.

Can't blame the mango man for this fiasco.
Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

Last year I was reading reports wherein SS was instigating farmers to ask higher price for their lands. Whose pockets that additional money ends up is anybody's guess. So one can imagine what they'll do now. May be the spokesperson's "concern" about cost is from this angle.
Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

KJo wrote:I don't know why people are blaming Maharashtrians or Mumbaikars for what transpired. It was squarely the fault of BJP and Sena, and more so the BJP and Amit Shah. The people voted for the alliance and put them in a majority. This is the desired outcome and it happened. If BJP and Sena cannot take it from there, it is no one's fault.

I have an ultra RW friend who keeps blaming "fickle Hindus" for this, how is it their fault?

If anyone, I would blame the top brass of the BJP for not seeing through Sena's intentions and going into the election on it's own rather than together. That way they could have contested all seats and in all likelihood have a majority themselves or be very close to it. By contesting fewer seats, they ceded ground to SS who went paki on them.

Can't blame the mango man for this fiasco.
KJo sir, if BJP and SS bagged same number of seats and BIF parties got small numbers as in GE, then nobody would have blamed MH hindus. But other two same similar numbers as SS. Again age old caste, free doles may be. And yes, instead of all this, they could have tolerated UT for 2.5 years.
Kashi
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kashi »

Did SS say anything about the Samruddhi maarg?
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