2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 16 Dec 2019 05:47

Nobody, especially talking heads, are going to apologise to minorities prosecuted in said countries, let alone actually do anything about it.

The act doesn't talk about religion, and discussion is whirring slowly towards religion in democracy!

sanjaykumar wrote:https://twitter.com/abhijitmajumder/sta ... 0144638976

Isn't azadi sloganeering about (for) democracy. How's that turn into anti something.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 16 Dec 2019 05:52

Post edited. Don't engage in more bilious commentary, thanks much.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 16 Dec 2019 05:55

It's Hinduon se azaadi. I thought that was what Pakistan is all about. I suppose all trains to Khokhrapar are booked.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Dec 2019 06:05

Part 1

Supratik wrote:Picklu wrote:

A few points, if I may:

Out of 1.9 mil out of NRC in assam, 1.2 mil are bengali speaking (bong+BD) hindu, 0.2 mil are non bengali hindu and 0.5 mil are Bengali speaking(bong + BD) muslim. This demographic segmentation has been widely published, so far there is no credible source disputing this. Anyone claiming otherwise based on their "own research", I would like to see any corroborating data source.

The population estimate work that was done before NRC expected around 0.55 mil BD hindu. When 1.2 mil bengali speaking hindu(double the estimated) were identified in NRC as BD hindu, it's fate were sealed on that very day because it was obvious that many genuine indian citizen (bengali speaking indian citizen hindu from Barak Valley) were tagged as illegal by the process. The number of Muslims 0.5mil were as per expectation. These 0.5 mil Muslim didn't even appeal after the first draft. Again, this has been widely published.
**********************

What is the source of your info? Please don't make up numbers on BRF. According to the Himanta Biswa Sharma the finance minster of Assam the number of Bdeshi Hindu not entering NRC is 5 lakh 40 thousand. You can also watch him speak to Rajeep on youtube where he is specifically quoting that number before a national audience.

I do not have a habit of making up stuff to show "deep knowledge in this matter". There are enough on the internet even with a cursory search, I am surprise that you do not know this despite being so close to this issue.
How many source do you want?

However, the publication of the final NRC list in Assam, which left out over 19.6 lakh people - of which around 12 lakh are Hindus and Bengali Hindus - has changed the political narrative in the state to a great extent.

From here
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 259_1.html

"Twelve lakh Bengali Hindus are not part of NRC. If Assam Accord is implemented Khilonjia or sons of the soul. These things are still not clear"

From here
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2019-12-14

Bhagwat was referring to concerns, even within the saffron camp, over 12 lakh Hindus being part of the 19 lakh people who did not make the NRC cut in Assam.

From here
https://www.telegraphindia.com/states/w ... id/1706854

Out of the over 19 lakh people omitted from the final NRC in Assam, which was published on August 31, about 12 lakh are Hindus.

From here
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/trinamo ... st-2106638

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Dec 2019 06:11

Part 2

Supratik wrote:Secondly, even if the number is 1.2 million they can always apply for CAB. So what is your point?

Wait till someone near and dear ones get excluded in NRC and you will know the pain of a hanging democles' sword of becoming stateless. I do not think you or your ancestors have ever been a refugee; my family is one who had to cross border only with the clothes they were wearing in 1948. No refugee family member ever wants another to face the same pain again.

I don't think you are connected to WB any more via close relationship; the relationship must be distant and does not matter anymore. No judgement anyway, quite a few "ghatis" don't understand the pain the "bangals" went through during partition. (For the non-bengalis, Ghati are the original inhabitants of west bengal, bangals are the ones who crossed over from then east pakistan to west bengal at the time of partition)

But even taking out the emotional part, let's talk logic.

You posted that NRC is awesomely successful and 1 to 1.2 mil bd muslim have been identified. Yes, must be awesomely successful and hence all the Assam BJP wants to throw this NRC to dustbin.

I have an inclination that you won't have a single source for this 1 to 1.2 mil muslim other than the 5 lakh figure quoted by Himanta Biswa Sharma. Please show your source for the number of muslims caught in NRC, not just BD kind but all kind.

Here is what an article with quotes from HBS himself.

"If the Citizenship Amendment Bill passes muster in Rajya Sabha and subsequently becomes an Act, more than five lakh Hindu migrants from Bangladesh, whose names were excluded in the final NRC, will be able to claim citizenship."
.........
"The remaining 13 lakh – which includes about 7 lakh Muslims – will have to approach foreign tribunals and furnish documents to establish their eligibility for Indian citizenship."

From here
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 20631.html

Here is a detailed breakup from another source:

"As per sources in the Intelligence Branch of the Assam government, the break-up is as follows:

Bengali Hindu 6.90 Lakh
East Bengal origin Muslim 4.86 Lakh

Gorkha 85,000
Assamese Hindu 60,000
Koch Rajbonshi 58,000
Goria Moria Deshi 35,000

Bodo 20,000
Karbi 9,000
Rabha 8,000
Hajong 8,000
Mishing 7,000
Ahom 3,000
Garo 2,500
Matak 1,500
Dimasa 1,100
Sonowal Kachari 1,000
Maran 900

Bishnupriya Manipuri 200
Naga 125
Hmar 75
Kuki 85
Thadou 50
Baite 85

A total of 19,06,657 people were excluded from the final NRC list. This means 6,70,000 or one-third of the people excluded are neither Bengali Hindu or Muslim, nor Assamese Hindu. But look at these numbers closely, they total to 14,77,520. Which means approximately 4,30,000 people are still unaccounted for in this break-up. According to expert sources who have access to information from the NRC office, these unaccounted people are none other than people from North, South and Western India, a bulk of them Hindi speaking Hindus from North India."

From here
https://sabrangindia.in/article/over-7- ... a-suggests

All the other above links I posted talk of 12 lakh hindu or bengali hindu.

Everything points out that the number of muslims excluded in NRC does not cross 7 lakh whereas total exclusion is 19 lakh.

Now there are 2 different things to consider
Reason a) NRC was expected to catch close to 40 lakh illegal BD muslims. What did it catch really? There are districts from where not even a single muslim have been excluded in NRC.

"No Muslim was excluded from NRC in Charaideo, Dima Hasao, Hamren and Majauli districts"

From here
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 465093.cms

Now population of Assam is 3.1 Crore per 2011 census and 3.4 crore estimated today. The cost of Assam NRC is 1300 Crore. From here
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/a ... 2019-08-31

Apart from WB, Assam is supposed to have the highest number of illegals; all other states have chillar comparatively. And due to animosity between son of the soil Assamese and outsider Mia, it would have been easier to identify them in Assam vs in WB. All it detected is at the most 7 lakh out of 40?

If we extrapolate the population, cost and correct identification percentage from Assam NRC, for 28+ states and 130+ Crore population and around 60 lakh BD illegal in the rest of the country, the cost would 35000+ Crore and we will find out at the most 10 lakh more illegal. So, out of 1 crore, less than 20 lakh.

And before you tell that even 1 is 1 less illegal in this country, let me tell you a large will remain here in India. There might be some small percentage voluntarily cross back surreptiously but BD govt will fight this tooth and nail and most will remain in India. What would be the security situation of out country where there are close to 20 lakh illegals who do not have anywhere to go and no pathway to citizenship living openly? Or are we going to create detention centres to house and fed 20 lakh people?

20 lakh is more than entire population of some small countries. It would be a huge drag to our finance to control this 20 lakh identified illegal. And even with NaMo at helm, there would be a limit how much human rights can be suppressed for this 20 lakh due to Global pressure, we are not talking about some small numbers in jail. Not keeping them in detention? Well, think of the security implications of them roaming openly in the country.

Reason b)There is an even bigger reason to oppose NRC and let me use Dileep's post to explain the same below in Part 3.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Dec 2019 06:13

Part 3

Dileep wrote:I went through the records acceptable for NRC. I think for me there is one tiny thread via the SSLC Book, provided the old voter's list and ration card records that show my parents didn't get destroyed in the flood. SHQ will fare better as her parents were govt employees.

What about my childhood friends who did not complete 10th? BTW, do you know how difficult it is to get the current records from a sarkari office? Recently the land records deptt screwed up the re-survey, and the people had to run pillar to post with the old records to set it right. For our Sarkar Bahadur GCSI GCIE*, the 'anus of proof' is always at the poor aam admi.

My point is, the typical sarkar bahadur high handedness must go, at least in the case of NRC. The process must be based on trust and self declaration. Let the folk self certify first from their part. Let the 'intelligence machinery' who spend their time wiretapping the phones of netas do some good work and verify the information from the background and catch the violators.

We talk about India being ITVty powerhouse and we run the worlds ITVty. Use that please. Of course, some claim that is. Look at the sarkari web sites onlee.

And please.. please.. do not follow Roman Emperor Augustus and ask everyone to drop what they are doing and queue up at the local enumeration centre. Use the available data and ask only those who are reasonably certain to be illegals. Of course, that is too much to ask from Sarkar Bahadur GCSI GCIE right?

Just after Aadhar was done, the babus of the census commission thought "WTF!! It is OUR job to screw people!! How come this UIDAI mess with it?" They went and demanded the National Population Register. Poor unwashed natives had to queue up at the enumeration centre and go through the exact process for Aadhar again. Nothing was heard after that. I think the babu finally got his hemorrhoids cured with this.

*GCSI GCIE: The highest order of recognition by the British Empire given to Natives. The idea is, the government continues in the British mode, even after quarter century after independence.

Here is the correct info Dileep chetta. All the list of documents is just to prove lineage. They do not prove your citizenship.

For Citizenship in Assam NRC, there were only one criteria. Through lineage, you must show that you are a decendent of citizens from both parent's side before the cutoff date of 1971 and the only way to prove their citizenship is that their name must appear in one of the three type of document
1. Voter list before 1971
2. NRC of 1952 (only in case of Assam) and
3. List of prescribed documents before 1971
You can check it here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... s_of_India

Now, i do not know about you but for me, in all my documents, there are 4 different variety of spelling for my father's name and 3 different variety of the spelling for the name of locality where I stay. This is not the exhaustive list of data entry errors, btw. And, I have let them be because getting them corrected via govt process is a PITA. You are not an wide eyed teenage internet warrior so you would know what i am talking about.

I am sure I am not the only one. In fact most of our citizen would be in similar situation with our variation of name spellings, manual data entry, loss due to natural calamities like flood etc and PITA to rectify any error.

And this is for the current generation. Can you image the situation for the documents in our previous generations?

With that you have to prove lineage to one of the above documents. Voter roll is one of the most politically faught document with various parties removing names as per their convenience; I don't have to tell you, you know CPM.
The other prescribe documents? With people continuously migrating, poor land records, natual calamity etc, I do not have much hope.

Now, out of a 3.4 Crore of population to check in Assam, at least 12 lakh hindu were excluded in NRC for the same reason. The links are above. Can you imagine how many will be excluded by the babus when it is covering 130+ crore? By simple extrapolation, 3.5 Crore or there abouts. And check the demographic spread of excluded hindus, not all were bong or north east; there were big chunks from other ethnicities.

This madness of NRC does not stop now, the pain is inevitably coming near you(you == ALL rakshaks), visiting the home of some of your near and dear ones.

That exactly what I hinted here:

Picklu wrote: Many non-bengali hindu folk are thinking that they do not have any risk , the only risk would be bourn by muslim and bengali hindus. They could not be more wrong. That's all I am going to say.

Once that happens, Govt will open NRC Seva Kendra to manually verify (and extort for bribe) the documents for these excluded ones. 2500+ are open in Assam. So around 30 times more would be required on pan india basis. Onleee. And the man power and cost for that, add to that pan indian NRC cost of 35k+ Crore.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Dec 2019 06:15

I have spent close to 20 years in BRF. I have no love lost for malsi gangs. And I come from a refugee family who crossed over amidst one of the worst riots in the history of mankind. So you can understand my feelings about illegal BD muslims.

My opposition to NRC has nothing to do any emotion or sentiment. It is based on cold hard logic and analysis of existing data. I was opposed to it even before it was done in Assam, at that time I had an inclination of what would be achieved and the result of NRC proves me right while providing me lot of additional corroborating data points.

I have explained the rational with those data points in the above 3 part post; See for yourself.

Anyone can try to refute with data; but i have a premonition that without providing data from their end, lot of personal attack would be thrown at me. That's fine.

And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 16 Dec 2019 07:03

Looking at the violence for CAB clearly run by BIF including INC and CpIM AAP etc. I feel they had some plan of giving citizenship to BDs tactically so that they could get the numbers in thier favour in some battle ground constituencies. There is no justification for the vandalism and WhatsApp rumor mongering by these political parties.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 16 Dec 2019 07:51

What a load of BS this Jay guy is posting. I am glad CAB is bring in all the traitors both within the RW and outside it out in the open.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 16 Dec 2019 08:00

Can you imagine how many will be excluded

This is prolly amongst most important point. I am not talking of conversion but such an act should not become source of troubles within.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Dec 2019 08:02

Picklu wrote:And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.

Pickluji, ppl die. So if the guvrmand puts as many ppl on the register as it can, and esp. newborns, it will become steadily more risky to do hanky-panky with this. Same as passport. So some reason for optimism.

It won't be perfect and there will always be a market for Made in Pakistan documents. And handcuffs.

No so long ago the idea of registering births at the municipal appees was a novel thing.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 16 Dec 2019 08:59

Are you for real??
Read this and then you will see their real faces...

https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/jamia-n ... s-violent/

Quoting from above:

The so-called ‘protesters’ raised slogans of ‘Hinduon se Azadi’ and ‘Chheen ke lengey Azadi’ and ‘Ladh ke lengey Azadi’. The slogans translate to ‘Freedom from Hindus’, ‘We will fight for freedom’. Given the violence that was witnessed, the ‘fight’ cannot be interpreted as a non-violent ‘fight’ alone.

Moderator note: It's one thing to make a comment about Islamists - i.e. those who use Islam as political tool and drive a communal agenda. However, please don't make generic anti-faith remarks. This is not a forum for discussing comparative religion, theology or anything of the sort.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 Dec 2019 09:57

Karthik S wrote:
Vikas wrote:KJo, Problem is L&O is a state issue. Center can issue directions but doesn't control local police.
But yes, this is high time that all these Goonda element are made to pay for the destruction of property.
Delhi police comes under AS doesn't it?

Then I am super Konfujed. Letting Goonda element burn and destroy Govt property can not be any Niti.
What is bad for WB is equally bad for Delhi.
Actually in India, Polis can brutalize the vulnerable, But when they meet with a more organized force, they run
away with tails tucked.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 Dec 2019 10:00

Jay wrote: As much as I am a Modi supporter, !!!

The moment someone starts with these lines, You know where it will end up.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 16 Dec 2019 10:05

Picklu wrote:Apart from WB, Assam is supposed to have the highest number of illegals; all other states have chillar comparatively. And due to animosity between son of the soil Assamese and outsider Mia, it would have been easier to identify them in Assam vs in WB. All it detected is at the most 7 lakh out of 40?

If the estimated Assamese population at present is 3.4 crore, only 3.3 crore applied for NRC. That is 10 lakh did not even apply. So I guess we can add them under excluded BD muslims which then makes the total number of excluded BD Muslims to 17 lakhs.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 16 Dec 2019 10:24

Picklu wrote:And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.

Then what do you suggest?

. Allow the Bangladeshi illegals to enjoy their life in India? Bangladeshi caught with Indian passport at KIA - is what today's Deccan Herald reports. And this is not the first case. Bangladesh->Bengal->Bangalore->Middle East seems to be the regular route taken by these people. And sooner or later India as a nation will have to face the music when the Bangladeshis start their criminal activities in the middle east. From what I understand many Sheikdoms in Middle East now do NOT issue VISAs for Bangladeshis, considering their criminal nature.

My opinion is that there has to be some way to ensure that India does not become a heaven for Bangladeshis. There has to be some way to make sure that they do not get any privileges by remaining in India. Be it an internal passport system like what they have in China.

Vikas wrote:Then I am super Konfujed. Letting Goonda element burn and destroy Govt property can not be any Niti.

For A.Shah & Co, the CAB has now become CAA. Courts also have not picked up any petitions on the CAA. And CAA actually is not about taking away citizen ship from any one. Using this Act, now the state machinery would ensure that non-Muslim refugees would get citizenship quickly. But in the mean time these protesting gangs will polarise the society even further (which also is an advantage to BJP). They will naturally reveal their true colours - many of the Muslim outfits involved in the protests have a violent streak in them which would invariably come out. When these protests become anti-India and anti-Hindu; a lot of fence sitters would be have to switch into the right position (of at least being pro-India if not pro-Hindu).

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 16 Dec 2019 11:18

Its very clear to me at least as to what transpired at the Jamia university. P!ssful mobs, both students and outsiders with willing collusion from other student entered the campus and started rioting. Police got wind of this and in a no nonsense manner, quelled the riots. I am pretty sure some excesses were committed, but I am OK with it in a situation like this. Once the students got caught red handed, they started crying foul and of course their allies in the media and opposition started the familiar tune.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Dec 2019 12:37

Sachin wrote:
Picklu wrote:And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.
Then what do you suggest? . Allow the Bangladeshi illegals to enjoy their life in India? Bangladeshi caught with Indian passport at KIA - is what today's Deccan Herald reports. And this is not the first case. Bangladesh->Bengal->Bangalore->Middle East seems to be the regular route taken by these people. And sooner or later India as a nation will have to face the music when the Bangladeshis start their criminal activities in the middle east. From what I understand many Sheikdoms in Middle East now do NOT issue VISAs for Bangladeshis, considering their criminal nature.

My opinion is that there has to be some way to ensure that India does not become a heaven for Bangladeshis. There has to be some way to make sure that they do not get any privileges by remaining in India. Be it an internal passport system like what they have in China.

Exactly what I had suggested sarcastically, is the next best solution.

Inner line permit for all states. The framework is already in place and could be tweaked to apply to all states. State lines will become virtual borders for migration. Obviously, that is in no ones interest.

Btw, there are many ways to resolve the risks associated with NRC.

1. One could use a more generous date as cutoff, say 1971 as in Assam or 1991 when the liberalization kicked off. Anyone having any kind of government document before the cutoff date would be a citizen.

2. Government could implement a solution where 100% of the current residents would qualify with the vaguest of documents. Only the assured BD would be deleted from the citizen register while most of the doubtful cases would be let in.

So why not declare that everyone will by default enter the citizen register? Because it will prompt immediate and massive migration from BD to take advantage of the "last general amnesty window" that such an announcement will represent. The GOI's language has to be tough even when it decided to take the most lenient position on Citizenship.

The thing is that NRC, in one form or the other, is needed to freeze the citizens register now at least to remove the uncertainty and risk going forward.

All talk of Rupee cost of NRC is diversion. 30-35k crore one time expense is not much to settle citizenship question once for all. This is the most inconsequential argument against NRC.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 16 Dec 2019 12:47

https://www.dawn.com/news/1522385/histo ... ihari-eyes
Both the Beedis and the Stranded Biharis want equal=equal access to mothership
Each claiming persecution by the other at some time or other!!!
And why should mothership accept these cut-throats?? Hainji

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 16 Dec 2019 13:01

Rony wrote:What a load of BS this Jay guy is posting. I am glad CAB is bring in all the traitors both within the RW and outside it out in the open.

Don't blame Jay. He is a hindu and what have we been told from our childhood? Every god is same. Respect every religion. Even when wishing we say "sarve jana sukino bhavantu". We hindus are victim of our own good.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 16 Dec 2019 13:12

Surely, the police should record the protests wherever possible. At least one police officer should be there with their video camera for recording purposes. Its a narrative battle ultimately, and thus showing your side of the story is key nowadays...

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 Dec 2019 13:30

Sachin wrote:
Picklu wrote:

For A.Shah & Co, the CAB has now become CAA. Courts also have not picked up any petitions on the CAA. And CAA actually is not about taking away citizen ship from any one. Using this Act, now the state machinery would ensure that non-Muslim refugees would get citizenship quickly. But in the mean time these protesting gangs will polarise the society even further (which also is an advantage to BJP). They will naturally reveal their true colours - many of the Muslim outfits involved in the protests have a violent streak in them which would invariably come out. When these protests become anti-India and anti-Hindu; a lot of fence sitters would be have to switch into the right position (of at least being pro-India if not pro-Hindu).

Sachin, I don't think Delhi polis atleast needs peacefools to burn property yo know the antecedents of thugs and gangs.
Giving space to rioters emboldens them for bigger spectacular efforts next time. Polarization of society is not a great outcome because the scars may never heal. Also unless there are repercussions, there will never be fear of Law.
I wish heavy hand of law falls on these rioters/students/Naxals with all its might.

Anti-India implicitly is always anti-Hindu. Meanwhile I saw one picture floating on my FB feed where a Army man is performing Lungi test. Now I know that it was a famous picture of terrorist army in East Pakistan but it was being presented as Indian army in Assam.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 Dec 2019 13:31

Jamia Milia VC backs Jehadis

Still the question remains, Why Muslims are protesting and what for ? Haven't they got +2 countries out of the mothership?

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 16 Dec 2019 13:37

Nationwide student protests are not playing well for the government at all. I hope they find a way to quell this fast, either by efficient arrests or through the media but the longer they go on, the more it loses the perception battle and beyond that point the truth or the real story will hardly matter.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 16 Dec 2019 14:08

I know there is a lot of opposition, protests, general mayhem, et al.. but I would rather have this when the peaceful community is ~ 20-22% than in the next decade or two when the peacefuls & sickulars would've unassailable demographic advantage.

Better us swallow the bitter pill than leave these issues for our next gen to suffer..

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 Dec 2019 14:12

OmkarC wrote:Better us swallow the bitter pill than leave these issues for our next gen to suffer..

How are we swallowing bitter pill? And how are our next gen safer?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 Dec 2019 14:23

Nihat wrote:Nationwide student protests are not playing well for the government at all. I hope they find a way to quell this fast, either by efficient arrests or through the media but the longer they go on, the more it loses the perception battle and beyond that point the truth or the real story will hardly matter.

How so?

Also can anyone educate me how this is going to discriminate against those who are already Indian citizens.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Dec 2019 14:27

Nihat wrote:Nationwide student protests are not playing well for the government at all. I hope they find a way to quell this fast, either by efficient arrests or through the media but the longer they go on, the more it loses the perception battle and beyond that point the truth or the real story will hardly matter.

Sorry to say that you have internalized the "liberal" narrative.

Modi was tarnished for all kinds of crime and at every available forum in Indian and abroad for 12+ loooooong years and he still managed to get elected with a Majority in 2014. The next 5 years, "liberals/progressives" tried to tarnish him at every available opportunity, at time misrepresenting incidents and sometimes creating imaginary ones, across the world and YET Modi came back with a bigger majority.

That is all one needs to know to understand the end result of "the perception battle". Modi base is and he is answerable to the Indian people and amongst them he is teflon coated. This too shall pass just as multiple previous incidents have passed.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 Dec 2019 14:30

Exactly, and people are seeing which students from which institutions are protesting and how they are protesting. In this day, it's not very difficult even for an ordinary guy in a village to figure out what's going on.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 16 Dec 2019 14:31

chetak wrote:
pankajs wrote: Aren't we about 2-3 months late to get exited?
the case has not been withdrawn or dismissed.

how does the time matter.

the danger still persists for Modi, in the eyes of the US justice dept.

after he leaves office and perhaps travels outside India, the US can still extradite him.

They had banned his visa for travel to the UK and US for alleged wrongs in India.

How was that ban justified by them without any investigation and without any proof whatsoever.

Chetakji

Its a civil action not a criminal action. Justice department cannot get involved and thus no risk of extradition or arrest.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 16 Dec 2019 14:37

Each claiming persecution by the other at some time or other!!!
And why should mothership accept these cut-throats??

Or another country.. easier to blame natives for everything, and make intermediate peace again. but the pseudo s will attack and kill each other like in pakilands when possible. Left as global org seems to be good at it while others are using left rhetoric to hide fundamentalism.

How are we swallowing bitter pill?

I think that comment was on some idea that it's better to get CAA enrollment done (when NDA is in govt, demographic favourable) than later when it will be tougher.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Dec 2019 14:37

greatde wrote:Surely, the police should record the protests wherever possible. At least one police officer should be there with their video camera for recording purposes. Its a narrative battle ultimately, and thus showing your side of the story is key nowadays...

Not a bad idea to record all such incidents, quite likely any future terrorist may come up from one of these groups.Also all these people need to be monitored "closely" esp travels abroad and such

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 16 Dec 2019 14:41

Karthik S wrote:
OmkarC wrote:Better us swallow the bitter pill than leave these issues for our next gen to suffer..
How are we swallowing bitter pill? And how are our next gen safer?

Having to deal w/ violence is the bitter pill.

We are just beginning to tackle Islamofascist expansionism through policy decision several decades too late, hence the widespread violence by deeply entrenched peacefuls.

CAB, NRC will hopefully stem the illegal influx and once the nation is secure externally, help pave the way for UCC that would outlaw polygamy (and also positively discriminate famileies w/2-kids ?) with an objective to give the next generation at least having to deal with sub-30% peaceful populations.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 Dec 2019 14:44

There are lot of suppressed civilizational emotions just under the surface within Indian milieu.

Unless there are serious repercussions to rioters and their handlers, All this monitoring by state polis would mean zilch. We didn't do anything to those who desecrated Shaheed memorial in Mumbai few years back.
Some clown will come up and withdraw all cases and let go of these rioters especially if from 'pampered' community.
We know how it all plays out in the end.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 16 Dec 2019 14:55

Picklu wrote:......

And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.

i.e. Until unless the NRC nodal agency is given clear instructions and targets upfront. To do this two things would be required.

1. Totally shed the pretense of being secular.(finally starting to happen as islamist savagery is increasingly hard to hide)
2. Ideologically alligned NRC staff.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 16 Dec 2019 15:05

Vikas wrote:Giving space to rioters emboldens them for bigger spectacular efforts next time. Polarization of society is not a great outcome because the scars may never heal. Also unless there are repercussions, there will never be fear of Law.

Polarization may not be a good thing to have, but things are actually moving into that direction. With CAA in place GoI can actually start implementing the provisions of the Act. It can be done without much fanfare, and the Hindu refugees would see & feel the benefits. Mean while the peacefool crowd would have used up all their violent strength only making them lose what ever sympathies they may have now. And then the fine tuning for the NRC excercise can be done. If we remember, only CAA has become a law. NRC, is time frame, process and other nitty-gritties are actually not even put up on the table to debate.

Nihat wrote:Nationwide student protests are not playing well for the government at all.

The primary responsibility of L&O is with the respective state. Delhi & NCR being the only exception. As I see it is only WB Govt who is actively standing aside the when the peacefool crowd runs bersek. Assam protests seems to have died out or under control. In UP, looks like only the obvious universities; Jamia Millia and Aligarh Muslim who are creating the maximum ruckus. UP Police would be able to quell it. Even Kerala; the heaven for such characters has made tomorrow's harthal/bandh illegal. In Kerala the organisations which have called for the protests are SDPI, Welfare party, Kerala Muslim Youth Federation, BSP, SGO and Solidarity Organisations. The bolded ones have Jehadi & Naxal elements in them.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 16 Dec 2019 15:14

Nihat wrote:Nationwide student protests are not playing well for the government at all. I hope they find a way to quell this fast, either by efficient arrests or through the media but the longer they go on, the more it loses the perception battle and beyond that point the truth or the real story will hardly matter.

Nihat bhaijaan The right question is whose perception. International community's perception or perception of ummah. 'cause the perception of those who voted this govt in power is intact as before and will only become better as islamics protest even more. I say more power to islamics. Young kafirs after all have every right to see the savagery of islamics as their previous generations. Nothing else will wake them up.

However I have a feeling that islamics have suffered from a horrible episode of premature ejaculation this time. Looks like islamic elders are no longer in control of hot headed islamic youngsters. They have shown their hand very early.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Dec 2019 15:23

UlanBatori wrote:
Picklu wrote:And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.
Pickluji, ppl die. So if the guvrmand puts as many ppl on the register as it can, and esp. newborns, it will become steadily more risky to do hanky-panky with this. Same as passport. So some reason for optimism.

It won't be perfect and there will always be a market for Made in Pakistan documents. And handcuffs.

No so long ago the idea of registering births at the municipal appees was a novel thing.

N3 Sir, we are talking the same things in different language. Here was my proposal from the very beginning even before NRC in assam were implemented. I have been posting on this from 2016 at least on this forum and I have been pretty consistent.

1. Fence the border in 2 layers with a minefield in between to slow down any attempt to cross over. For any river, put the 2 layer fence on our side of the bank. Will stop most of the illegals. The technological solution exist. All the excuses given for topology etc are mostly bunkum and govt chickening out from a large infra project without any direct financial ROI.

2. Only when the above step 1 is complete, create a register of citizens, call it NRC, NPR whatever. Seed it directly from Aadhaar which already has more than 95% coverage of all citizens with biometrics and facial profile.

Grant an one time amnesty for all who are already in India and have some/any kind of documentation at that point. I am not against the register per say, only against this madness of document verification proving lineage upto some cutoff date that's 30/50 year in the past.

And we need to ensure that while the obviously jihadist BD scum gets excluded, the total final exclusion does not cross 5-10k. We need to be lenient. Because, handling anything beyond that would be a disaster financially, security wise and also in terms of foreign policy. Basically, no half measures at this point. Find the newly entered jihadist scum that has no pathway to citizenship, lock them in jail for life and throw away the key forever. Can't be done for a large group of people beyond 5 to 10k. Allow the rest in as citizen and get them integrated via UCC and aadhaar. We need to stop hanky panky by all - indian jihadist, ej, khalistani etc etc and not just the bd jihadi. NRC is not the tool for this, UCC and its strict implementation and monitoring via Aadhaar is the key.

It is important to do this after step 1, else there will remain a loophole and new illegals will keep on coming and get added to the same register via the local political support. However much we like, Cong, CPM, TMC and their ilk are not going away anywhere soon.

3. CAB remains. The single most humane thing this govt has done. Jai ho. People like my family members will always have a home in this great nation in the future. Already Matuas in WB, more than 70 lakh in numbers are celebrating.

To all who think the protest is against CAB, you can't be more wrong. The protest is essentially against the current method of NRC which CAB enables. However, protesting against NRC is not politically feasible since it needs lot of data point to prove the futility. Hence the protest against CAB which is easy because it allows to run the narrative of specific religion based exclusion.

hanumadu wrote:
Picklu wrote:Apart from WB, Assam is supposed to have the highest number of illegals; all other states have chillar comparatively. And due to animosity between son of the soil Assamese and outsider Mia, it would have been easier to identify them in Assam vs in WB. All it detected is at the most 7 lakh out of 40?
If the estimated Assamese population at present is 3.4 crore, only 3.3 crore applied for NRC. That is 10 lakh did not even apply. So I guess we can add them under excluded BD muslims which then makes the total number of excluded BD Muslims to 17 lakhs.

3.4 Crore is the rough number and it is an estimate. The actual number may very well be 3.3 Crore or there about. 10 lakh is big number and it does not appear feasible that so many didn't apply. 5 lakh muslim excluded in NRC didn't appeal and that itself came out in the news papers multiple times. If 10 lakh didn't apply, it would have surely come out in the news one way or another with MSM pushing the "dara hua muslim" narrative.

And even if for the sake of argument, we say 10 lakh didn't apply, I hope you do realize the implications of 17 lakh people living amidst us with all sort of documentation but simply not appearing in the register. Extrapolate the same to the rest of the nation and say 40 lakh remains excluded. They would have what N3 mentioned so eloquently "Made in Pakistan documents" to evade most of the cursory search.

Can you again imagine the security, public health and economical burden such a large undocumented population puts on a society organised via citizen register and aadhaar (vs the current entirely unorganised one)?

Are we going to put police officers with deep anal probes every street corner to ensure these 40 lakhs undocumented one do not appear out of thin air, cause any hunky panky and simply vanish afterwords? For maintaining security, those probes will enter the nether orifice of everyone, both legal and illegal. And imagine the scope of bribe!!!

And exactly that's what would be needed. Because if people (illegal or otherwise) think that they do not have proper documentation to get registered in NRC, they simply won't bother to even try and put themselves in the doubtful list. They would rather go "unregistered" and such a large population would simply find it's own way to survive undocumented as is the human nature to survive. That's exactly the learning from LatAm illegals in America or ME illegals in EU.

Sachin wrote:
Picklu wrote:And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.
Then what do you suggest? . Allow the Bangladeshi illegals to enjoy their life in India? Bangladeshi caught with Indian passport at KIA - is what today's Deccan Herald reports. And this is not the first case. Bangladesh->Bengal->Bangalore->Middle East seems to be the regular route taken by these people. And sooner or later India as a nation will have to face the music when the Bangladeshis start their criminal activities in the middle east. From what I understand many Sheikdoms in Middle East now do NOT issue VISAs for Bangladeshis, considering their criminal nature.

My opinion is that there has to be some way to ensure that India does not become a heaven for Bangladeshis. There has to be some way to make sure that they do not get any privileges by remaining in India. Be it an internal passport system like what they have in China.

Sachin sir, the reason why I am responding to you in the same reply to N3 is so that i do not have to repeat. My suggestion is the 3 steps i have put above. I am putting forth this suggestion for quite sometimes now. Only, currently, there is data to bolster the argument after Assam NRC.

And you are not going to like what I am going to say here. The cost of leniency and amnesty for the existing bd illegal ones, economically, diplomatically, security wise and public health and welfare and all the other plethora of governance, is miniscule compared to what will happen if we embark on this strict document based lineage verified NRC that is currently being proposed. It would be a human rights disaster for legitimate citizens caught as illegal for numerous common reasons(* see a few sample below) and equally disastrous for a large group of undocumented illegals living among us without registration.

Is that fair to tax paying bonfide indian citizen like me? No. But that's the path of best case unfortunately.

If I have to give an analogy, consider this:
After a particular age, a man won't be able to have a hard-on.
All human are bound to die at old age.

Do we like this? No. However even if we consider then a problem, there is no solution to them.

That's exactly the case of illegal BDs who are already in. Trying to weed them out is akin to taking a boatload of Via(little blue pill)Agra at the age of 90 to solve the hard-on problem. No good will come out of it. For either case

=======================
* Among the common reasons why a strict verification may fail a large number of bonafide indians, I have already given examples of misspelling etc in the documents, omission in voter roll, natural calamity like cyclone, flood, earthquake, fire in govt record office, non digitized records in poorly maintained storage etc that keeps on hitting us like clockwork. Our land and property records are nothing to talk about either to begin with, we simply are not great in documentation.

Even where records exist, it may face a challenge to furnish because of human relationship issues etc like
a. relatives fighting court cases for property etc
b. multiple marriage in our ancestors and relationship breaking down due to various disputes/emotions arising out of it.

I have examples of both among distant relatives and I am sure that's quite common. The number of court case backlogs is empirical proof of point a and for point b, well us the people of the subcontinent are all extremely similar in our social structure irrespective of language, ethnicity and religion.

Take all these in together and you will find that a significant number of bonafide indians have a risk to get excluded in the NRC. The extrapolated figure of 3.5 crore would suddenly start making sense.

And the solution via Internal passport? You must be joking sir. If the illegals can manage 100s of other documents, what's another one more? Already you are aware that most of the BD folks in Bangalore are fluent in Kannada. Quite a few are even multilingual in all south languages.

Nothing surprising, human beings would achieve great things for survival. It's better to channel and harness that for the betterment of society and country rather than creating a division within our society with lot of bad bloods.

And the current riots are pointing exactly in that direction. Bad blood. Think of the end game. Before NRC, they were not rioting at this scale, the threat of NRC has put them on an war path.

What would you do with that many jihadi living among us in future as undocumented who has become more embittered and antagonistic in the process?

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 16 Dec 2019 15:47

darshhan wrote:
Picklu wrote:......

And last but not the least, I do not trust in Magic; despite my faith in NaMo, NRC WON'T BE SUCCESSFUL. Data and Science says so.
i.e. Until unless the NRC nodal agency is given clear instructions and targets upfront. To do this two things would be required.

1. Totally shed the pretense of being secular.(finally starting to happen as islamist savagery is increasingly hard to hide)
2. Ideologically alligned NRC staff.

I hear what you saying and as I said, i have no love lost for the sikulars. But think of the end game about what you suggest. 3 points

a. What are you going to do with the excluded ones ? The path forward for us, the bonafide citizens with such large number of excluded folks (illegal and bonafide) living among us?

b. Our per capita income is still in one of the lower slabs in the world and like it or not, we are desperately in the need of foreign capital. How are we going to handle the global pressure that will for sure mount on us for such a religiously coloured weeding of possibly bonafide citizens? Remember, we are not talking about only the middle east and the elite left lib sicular gang of OECD countries but even the common honest folks who would also definitely not agree to disfranchise bonafide citizens based on religion. And in this case, to the global audience, everyone is bonafide even if some documents are missing until and unless they are proven illegal beyond all doubt.

c. Given the Number of populations involved, we would need Crores of stuff in NRC. How are you going to get such ideologically aligned AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMPERVIOUS TO CORRUPTION Crores of adult indians ready to be NRC stuff? If you think police, IT dept, customs etc are corrupt, wait till these NRC guys start literally asking for kidney as well as your firstborn.

Note: this is not the same case where we exclude a large number from all religions based on strict but secular criteria. Here we are talking of simply targeting one (or two, at the most three minority if you want the EJs and Khalistanis out at the same time)

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 16 Dec 2019 16:10

Picklu wrote:The cost of leniency and amnesty for the existing bd illegal ones, economically, diplomatically, security wise and public health and welfare and all the other plethora of governance, is miniscule compared to what will happen if we embark on this strict document based lineage verified NRC that is currently being proposed.

Then perhaps it would be a better idea to restrict the movement of such people. Say restrict them to West Bengal or some thing similar. The reason why I say this; in the last six months we have seen one double murder (two old people killed), one brutal rape and murder, and one grand theft (of jewellery) in Kerala alone. In all cases the accused/arrested are Bangladeshis (masquerading as Bengalis). Allowing such people a free run in other parts of India would be more counter productive. And worse would be these fellows also getting Indian passports and then start the usual terrorist stunts in other countries. Till now, India could at least say that Islamic terrorists from India have not caused much damage to the rest of the world.