2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Vidur
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 30 Aug 2019 03:02

disha wrote:
chetak wrote:Reserves belong to the shareholders and not to the company (RBI).

the reserves truly belong to the GoI and ultimately to the public.


+72.

what exactly was/is its risk universe and what are the mitigations that it seeks to deploy, does anyone actually know


This is the print article on RBI https://theprint.in/opinion/central-banks-like-rbi-tend-to-build-an-empire-sometimes-at-the-cost-of-public-interest/283129/

(Looks like Coupta got some chabi or trying to create a modicum of balance now for a reason & to be used later)

Are the reserves excessive?
Internationally, there is no consensus on central bank reserves. Some central banks, such as the RBI, hold large reserves. In some countries (like Israel, Chile, Thailand), they even run with negative capital. Most others are in between. Commercial banks require capital to create faith in their soundness so that there are no runs on them. Central banks do not face such threats. For the RBI, maintaining reserves to ensure a good rating also does not make sense. A central bank’s credit rating is not distinct from that of the country.


On the forex-rupee reserves

From the total reserves, about 70 per cent (Rs 6.92 lakh crore approximately) are in the Currency and Gold Revaluation Account (CGRA). This account mainly covers revaluation losses on foreign currency securities. The main risk with these securities is that of rupee appreciation. The RBI books profits and losses in rupees. When rupee appreciates, foreign currency assets become less valuable in rupee terms, leading to losses for the RBI. The RBI makes profits when the rupee depreciates.
...
...
The RBI reserves are sufficient to absorb about 36 per cent appreciation – that is, rupee going to about 53 per dollar. The RBI is keeping reserves for an extremely low probability event.
...
...


And

This is also political because central banks, like other public agencies, have an incentive to “build an empire”, sometimes even at the cost of public interest. This is why, in other countries, the framework is usually given in the law or is in an agreement between the central bank and the government. The decision about central bank surplus cannot be left only to the central bankers.

...
A sustainable solution would involve including the framework for surplus and reserves in the RBI Act ... The framework should ensure optimal utilisation of surplus income – for building reserves and for fiscal purposes.


What Modi government can do is evolve this framework and update the RBI act. Since this can be called as a money bill, it will not need a nod in RS.

The act can be called "Managing surplus money and framework of money management by RBI".

In the meantime, for siding with Bakistan, CONgoons should be split into 2/3rd and 1/3rd. The rump CONgoons can be called as Congress (S) or Congress (C) (for Sonia/Chornia) and the larger set should call themselves BNC (Bharatiya National Congress). Gandhi's dream remains to be fulfilled.


Could not sleep so thought I would share my views on Central Bank Independence. My background is in Economics and I have studied financial systems across the world at some length as its an area of interest.

1. Independence : I believe that Central Banks must have independence to set monetary policy and an explict inflation target as its benchmark. This ensures that all government's natural desire for fiscal expansion does not lead to run away inflation as central banks can counter that through monetary policy. Monetary policy's main aim should be inflation targeting not growth targeting . This is especially important in a developing economy like India as inflation hits the poorest. Whenever central banks have tried to target growth instead of inflation it has lead to disaster. Western central banks pumped money into the system leading to the 2008 financial crisis. After the crisis they bailed out banks and pumped even more money into the system to keep asset prices artificially inflated. This lead to more than a decade long financial repression of the masses while the elite got richer. This included all asset owning classes. So I strongly endorse central bank independence in monetary policy.

2. Reserves : RBI reserves are 10 lac crores and its assets are 36 lac crores. Thus it holds about 28% reserves. Central Banks around the world have different legal structures. The Fed for example is semi private. However the RBI by statute is part of the Government of India and hence its credit is same as India's sovereign credit. Therefore it does not need high reserves. Even private investment banks - the riskiest category of financial institutions across the world hold about 8% of assets as capital (including reserves). There is no case for RBI to hold anything above 8%. In fact 5 % would be more than enough. Furthermore, RBI's profits are a direct consequence of economic activity in India especially INR weakening. Therefore it must return all its profits to the people of India ie the Government of India. A law must be passed that fixes RBI's capital adequacy at 5% or at max 8%. All surplus in addition to that must be returned to GOI.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kit » 30 Aug 2019 03:19

Vidur wrote:
disha wrote:
+72.



This is the print article on RBI https://theprint.in/opinion/central-banks-like-rbi-tend-to-build-an-empire-sometimes-at-the-cost-of-public-interest/283129/

(Looks like Coupta got some chabi or trying to create a modicum of balance now for a reason & to be used later)



On the forex-rupee reserves



And



What Modi government can do is evolve this framework and update the RBI act. Since this can be called as a money bill, it will not need a nod in RS.

The act can be called "Managing surplus money and framework of money management by RBI".

In the meantime, for siding with Bakistan, CONgoons should be split into 2/3rd and 1/3rd. The rump CONgoons can be called as Congress (S) or Congress (C) (for Sonia/Chornia) and the larger set should call themselves BNC (Bharatiya National Congress). Gandhi's dream remains to be fulfilled.


Could not sleep so thought I would share my views on Central Bank Independence. My background is in Economics and I have studied financial systems across the world at some length as its an area of interest.

1. Independence : I believe that Central Banks must have independence to set monetary policy and an explict inflation target as its benchmark. This ensures that all government's natural desire for fiscal expansion does not lead to run away inflation as central banks can counter that through monetary policy. Monetary policy's main aim should be inflation targeting not growth targeting . This is especially important in a developing economy like India as inflation hits the poorest. Whenever central banks have tried to target growth instead of inflation it has lead to disaster. Western central banks pumped money into the system leading to the 2008 financial crisis. After the crisis they bailed out banks and pumped even more money into the system to keep asset prices artificially inflated. This lead to more than a decade long financial repression of the masses while the elite got richer. This included all asset owning classes. So I strongly endorse central bank independence in monetary policy.

2. Reserves : RBI reserves are 10 lac crores and its assets are 36 lac crores. Thus it holds about 28% reserves. Central Banks around the world have different legal structures. The Fed for example is semi private. However the RBI by statute is part of the Government of India and hence its credit is same as India's sovereign credit. Therefore it does not need high reserves. Even private investment banks - the riskiest category of financial institutions across the world hold about 8% of assets as capital (including reserves). There is no case for RBI to hold anything above 8%. In fact 5 % would be more than enough. Furthermore, RBI's profits are a direct consequence of economic activity in India especially INR weakening. Therefore it must return all its profits to the people of India ie the Government of India. A law must be passed that fixes RBI's capital adequacy at 5% or at max 8%. All surplus in addition to that must be returned to GOI.


Is there any mandate for the RBI to hold such a huge amount of reserves ? ..How did this happen in the first place ? Isnt this almost like saving away and not using anything at all ( a very naive picturisation of a shylock packing all his wealth under his bed while the house and even his cloth are in tatters ! )

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 30 Aug 2019 03:21

pankajs wrote:The strong mandate is being recognized up and down the line

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1167022159274758145
ANI @ANI

Senior Congress leader DK Shivakumar's plea to quash the Enforcement Directorate's summons rejected by Karnataka High Court. (File pic)


Except this fella ...



Bar & Bench
@barandbench
#RamMandir - #BabriMasjid: While Islam prohibits worship of anything apart from Allah, Hinduism says whatever you worship ultimately reaches the same one power.

Hinduism in that sense is different, Hindus can worship in a place where Namaz is offered, Justice DY Chandrachud.


This guy has to be impeached and never be made CJI. He will destroy India. He hates Indian constitution. He thinks he is westerner and needs to abolish the constitution and rewrite as he pleases.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 30 Aug 2019 03:32

kit wrote:Is there any mandate for the RBI to hold such a huge amount of reserves ? ..How did this happen in the first place ? Isnt this almost like saving away and not using anything at all ( a very naive picturisation of a shylock packing all his wealth under his bed while the house and even his cloth are in tatters ! )

Most of these decisions have historically been decided independently by RBI. It didn't matter when the numbers they were dealing with were small, but as the economy grows much larger, all the numbers become very large too. So much so that a single year of additional income from general mandated central bank business adds up to $25 billion, and their cash reserve many times that.

Like most things, this is a result of previous ad hoc arrangements no longer scaling as the economy grows much larger. That's why I mentioned in the previous post that there needs to be more statutory arrangements regarding RBI's reserve ratio rather than sit on enormous piles of cash that they maintain because they're just maintaining the same ratios they have, but in absolute terms that adds up to very large numbers now.

Prior RBI governors have disagreed on principle against the concept of GoI 'raiding RBI's balance sheet'. That is a fair argument. However, RBI itself has balance sheet capital reserve norms that arguably aren't up to date.

In addition, probably every incoming government should have the ability to sit down and craft an arrangement with RBI at the start of its term, or at least, a joint committee should be constituted from RBI and GoI every 5 years to make updates on such decisions.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 04:17

Vidur, Our hopes and blessing for you that one day you will be Cabinet Secretary!!!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 04:19

chetak, disha and kit, its a malfeasance at the least.
Suraj we are talking about who we got here not anything else.

we can see politics and not just finance or economics.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 04:22

Ok lets do time series analysis for last 20 years to get to the bottom of this.

Will get data and post.

I think Couptaji got rattled too may be read the forum and decided to look into.
What RBI has done is indefensible.
How many farmers committed suicide for want of relief and a few thousand rupees?
Their families had to sell all and become labor class in urban squalor.

I am also going to list the RBI governors for last 20 years along with the data.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 30 Aug 2019 04:40

ramana wrote:chetak, disha and kit, its a malfeasance at the least.
Suraj we are talking about who we got here not anything else.

we can see politics and not just finance or economics.

I'm not arguing against you, I'm just stating things as they are from a financial viewpoint while stating that the specifics of the political motives and process are something I'm not going to address :)

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 04:53

chetak wrote:
ramana Saar,

pardon my french and apologies in advance.

F(uk!ng $h!+, no one has insight like you.

Now a lot of the pre election machinations are falling into place, starting from that glib conman 3R who was being touted as the FinMin to pappu's extreme confidence in returning to the dilli throne.

this has the look of preplanned treachery and a BIF conspiracy.

It also looks like the desi conspiracy breakers have taken up the cudgels very seriously and are going after the lead actors.

It is easy to see that the mafia has had succession plans well laid out in advance in every organ of the state. That means that the events have a strategic dimension going back many many decades to establish controls over the levers of the state.

Sriperumbudur or the one before.


Its not just my thinking but collective thought process of those I interact with.
Connecting dots is a collaborative process.
The chart you posted triggered the train of thoughts.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Aug 2019 05:47

RBI surplus transfers to the Central Government.
"Since 2013-14, the RBI has been paying 99 per cent of its disposable income to the government". [3]

2018-19: 123,414 crore (surplus) + 52,637 crore "excess provision" [4]
2017-18: 50,000 crore [2] [4]
2016-17: 30,659 crore [2]
2014-15: 65,896 crore [1]
2013-14: 52,679 crore [1]
2012-13: 33,010 crore [6]
2011-12: 16,010 crore [5]
2010-11: 15,090 crore [5]

[1] https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 829_1.html
[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 592268.cms
[3] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 845849.cms
[4] https://www.bloombergquint.com/business ... government
[5] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/op ... 500091.cms
[6] https://www.ndtv.com/business/rbi-to-pa ... ent-325550

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 30 Aug 2019 06:01

It’s accounting gain not real money. If GoI wants, it can create as much money as it wants without touching RBI balance sheet. Problem is of inflation, adding that sort of money into economy ontop of what is already planned will cause inflation which will defeat the purpose.

Clearly govt can’t spend that money to build anything, most likely it’ll be used to adjust GoI debt (in this case GoI sold asset from RBI balance sheet and paid liabilities, nothing really changed) or by some innovative accounting trick they’ll use it to recapitalize banks.

The second option would really help move the economy in right direction.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Aug 2019 06:09

^^^ It is real money.
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/mo ... 66795.ece#

e.g.
The RBI’s reserves consist of currency and gold revaluation account (CGRA), the investment revaluation account, the asset development fund (ADF) and the contingency fund (CF). The CGRA makes up the chunk of the reserves and has gone up substantially since 2010---at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 per cent to Rs 6.91 lakh crore in 2017-18. It essentially reflects the unrealized gains or losses on the revaluation of forex and gold.


Next, the CF constitutes over a fourth of the RBI’s reserves. The CF is a specific provision made for meeting unexpected contingencies from exchange rate operations and monetary policy decisions. The RBI contributes a notable portion of its profit to the CF.
Last edited by A_Gupta on 30 Aug 2019 06:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Aug 2019 06:14

From the above:
A peek into RBI's key reserves

Code: Select all

FY    Balance in CF  Balance in CGRA    CF % of total assets   Total reserves % of total assets
         (Rs cr)            (Rs cr)
2009   153,392           198,842               10.9            25
2010   158,561           119,134               10.2            17.9
2011   170,728           182,286                9.5            19.6
2012   195,405           473,172                8.8            30.3
2013   221,652           520,113                9.3            31
2014   221,652           572,163                8.4            30.2
2015   221,614           559,193                7.7            27
2016   220,183           637,478                6.8            26.4
2017   228,207           529,945                6.9            22.9
2018   232,108           691,641                6.4            25.5
Jalan panel recommendation                    5.5-6.5        20-24.5

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Aug 2019 06:20

Last word from the above: "However, the manner in which the funds are used will be critical. The share of capital expenditure as a per cent of GDP has been falling in recent years. In India, the bulk of government spending is mostly biased towards boosting consumption rather than investments. This time around, the Centre will need to put the RBI’s surplus funds to productive use, that can have a sustainable multiplier impact on overall growth in the economy."

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 06:51

Amit, Getting advice from Hindu is gratuitous!!!

Where was there gnan before the elections or earlier years.

There was a conspiracy of silence and needs MHA to probe this.

Finally we are understand the 7 walls of C-System being unraveled.

No wonder RaGa was crying cheating for he thought he could spend this money for ever.
And lots of very same people giving sane advice would be cheering him on.

Note from same article

The amount of surplus that the RBI must transfer to the Centre is determined based on two things---realized equity and economic capital.

The ‘realized equity’ is the risk provisioning made primarily from retained earnings referred to as the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB). This is essentially the existing amount in the RBI’s CF. The Jalan panel has recommended that the CF be maintained within a range of 6.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.

The current CF outstanding stood at 6.8 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet and hence, the excess from the pre-decided range of 5.5-6.5 per cent is written back. Here, the panel decided to go with the lower threshold of 5.5 per cent and hence the excess Rs 52,637 crore has been written back (to be transferred to the Centre).

Two, at the aggregate level, the panel suggests maintaining economic capital--- realized equity and revaluation balances (essentially CGRA)—at a range of 24.5 per cent to 20 per cent of balance sheet. Since it stood at 23.3 per cent as of June 2019---within the desired range, the entire net income of the RBI of Rs 1,23,414 crore for the fiscal (without transferring to the CF) has been transferred to the Centre as surplus.

Hence a total of Rs 1,76,051 crore has been paid out to the Centre.

What’s of concern?

The RBI had been contributing a chunk of its profit to the contingency fund up to 2012-13. Between 2010-11 and 2012-13, the RBI had set aside 32-45 per cent of its gross income to this fund. Hence CF was a high 9-10 per cent of total assets.

Additions to this fund though had ceased since 2013-14. The entire surplus in the RBI’s coffers was being transferred to the Centre. But from 2016-17, the RBI once again started transferring funds to the CF. The CF has been 6-7 per cent of assets over the past three to four years.


So who did they inform when they did this in 2016-17?
Thats how the fund got boosted so high.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 07:07

Katare it is real money and accumulation resumed in 2016-2017.

Jalan Panel should have gone into how the decision was taken to resume in 2016-2017.
And Rs. 1,23,414 crore !!!
Rs. 70,000 crore is $10B.
This is almost $15B accumulation
And total of Rs. 1,76,051 crore is $25B
Who goes the father?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 07:11

From Google chacha

Code: Select all

#      Name                   Appointed
22   D. Subbarao      4 September 2013
23   Raghuram Rajan   4 September 2016
24   Urjit Patel         11 December 2018
25   Shaktikanta Das      Incumbent

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 30 Aug 2019 09:07

The surplus transfers are not merely accounting gain. They're real income from expanding the balance sheet by purchasing more government securities.
How the RBI ended 2018-19 with an over ₹1.23 lakh-crore surplus
Ever since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a jaw-dropping surplus of ₹1,23,414 crore for 2018-19 (July-June accounting year), the question that has been uppermost on everyone’s mind is: how did the central bank post such a massive surplus?

In the immediate two preceding years, 2017-18 and 2016-17, the surpluses were only ₹50,004 crore and ₹30,663 crore respectively. The RBI Annual Report for 2018-19, released on Thursday, provides the answers. There are two basic reasons for the impressive surge.

First, a huge ₹28,998 crore gain from foreign exchange transactions thanks mainly to a change in accounting policy. Until last year, when the RBI sold dollars in the market (to support the rupee), the gain or loss was calculated based on the previous Friday’s market value of the dollar. This policy was changed this year to reflect the historical acquisition cost of the dollar. A rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation puts this historical cost at around ₹53. This means that, if the RBI were to sell the dollar in the market today at around ₹72, it stands to gain ₹19 for every unit it sells.

The second reason for the higher surplus is a leap in interest income which was higher by ₹32,966 crore compared to 2017-18. The RBI conducted several rounds of open market operations (OMO) last year to infuse liquidity leading to a 57% jump in its holding of government bonds.

As per estimates by SBI Research, the RBI purchased a whopping ₹3,31,100 crore net of government bonds in 2018-19 through OMOs.

Interest from bond holdings alone was higher by ₹10,375 crore while Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) operations yielded another ₹1,046 crore as interest earnings.

Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Katare » 30 Aug 2019 10:02

Guys, surplus are different, they are part of real earnings from economic activities. Spending that money would not heat up the economy. All of the surplus should be transferred to govt, including the portion that the last governor held back.

RBI reserves are mostly made up of gains that came from Rupee loosing its value over last several years, not from any economic activity. That notional money, although technically real, cant be used in the economy without having equal negative effect. IIRC Panagariya wrote a detailed article suggesting some innovative accounting ways this money, not the surplus but the currency gains, can be used by GoI.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 30 Aug 2019 10:27

The previously quoted article describes the change in accounting . The CGRA portion of cash reserves are not valuation changes . They are actual currency transaction earnings . When RBI buys the dollars to keep the Rupee from strengthening they pay Rupees for it and when they sell the dollar later they get more Rupees for that when the Rupee has weakened (and it weakened a lot between 2009-2019); the accounting difference related to how to establish the buying price, because they conduct these operations continuously, all the time.

For better understanding, this is an exercise akin to reporting base price of stocks purchased when reporting sales and capital gains/losses in a personal IT return - this is not always straightforward when there are several such transactions (in RBIs case thousands) for the same equity or asset. There are rules made to identify which purchase transaction or purchase valuation to use. The rules may be accounting magic but the gains are real - it is a matter of which purchase lot you tie a sales lot to. Why doesn’t RBI just painstaking keep a record of spot prices of all its dollar buys ? Dunno. It’s not like they have to pay daytrading taxes on it like the mango man...

RBIs CGRA earnings have grown dramatically in recent years, registering 25% CAGR in the past decade to reach over 7 lakh crore ($100 billion) by end of last fiscal year. The remaining 25% of the 10 lakh crore in cash reserves are the contingency fund, the same 25% figure listed in the graph as ‘too high’ . Funny thing about the ongoing discussion on too high cash reserves is that there's another $100 billion in the story besides what people are talking about...

The actual forex reserves themselves are not part of cash reserves. They are most of what constitutes the difference between the total balance sheet of Rs 41 lakh crore and the Rs 10 lakh crore in cash reserves.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 11:19

ramana wrote:
chetak wrote:
ramana Saar,

pardon my french and apologies in advance.

F(uk!ng $h!+, no one has insight like you.

Now a lot of the pre election machinations are falling into place, starting from that glib conman 3R who was being touted as the FinMin to pappu's extreme confidence in returning to the dilli throne.

this has the look of preplanned treachery and a BIF conspiracy.

It also looks like the desi conspiracy breakers have taken up the cudgels very seriously and are going after the lead actors.

It is easy to see that the mafia has had succession plans well laid out in advance in every organ of the state. That means that the events have a strategic dimension going back many many decades to establish controls over the levers of the state.

Sriperumbudur or the one before.


Its not just my thinking but collective thought process of those I interact with.
Connecting dots is a collaborative process.
The chart you posted triggered the train of thoughts.


At least now, enough people are aware of this to raise some sort of hue and cry when next such a thing take place.

the loud screams for "independence" may be nothing more than a cover to leverage the position of the governor of the central bank and prise out the right to do such things quietly and well out of the public glare and maybe even parliamentary oversight.

the odious case of RRR is a glaring example of how things can go wrong when there is loss of specificity of national focus. this guy has been hand in glove with many jokers whose financial policies and machinations may have resulted in gross imbalances in the banking system and also he has been a party to such shenanigans, either by omission or commission, since he was the CEA.

He never spoke out when such an exposé may have been fruitful and indeed systemically theraputic.

In India, one day some guy is an ias baboo(n) and a generalist to boot and the next day he is managing the central bank and fondly imagines that he has acquired some sort of magic wand that now differentiates him from the other members of humanity.

why are so many of our advisors sourced from foreign locales. Their tenures in foreign think tanks, universities and non Indian financial entities invariably subject them to pulls and pressures that ill suit our own specific national needs and aspirations and at times, subject our national policies to influences that may not be entirely acceptable to us. Should we not find competent people from among our own acadaemicia or professional bodies

A world bank tenure may well end up contaminating a persons thought process and the coercive lending techniques/conditions followed by such institutions may leave one's thinking limited when applied to third world situations or even in some emerging market scenarios.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 12:35

twitter

Five huge losses in twelve months.

Any other party would have folded by now if such a massive blow happened at the top tier of leadership. But the strength of BJP is that it is thriving in spite of such irreplaceable losses.

No wonder it is the world's largest political party!




Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 12:38

twitter


Arun Jaitley's accomplishments as the Finance Minister in Modi 1.0.

Quickly and nicely summarized




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chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 13:35

Swarajya Verified account @SwarajyaMag Aug 27

UP: Muslim Women Register 216 FIRs Against Their Husbands Within Three Weeks Of Triple Talaq Law Coming into Force

Sachin
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 30 Aug 2019 14:05

^^^ It would also be better if similar reports are made available on successful investigations, charge sheeting and even sentencing. Registering FIR only means police has taken note of the crime and is "investigating". It just means that 216 peacefool hubbies in UP are now a worried lot.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Aug 2019 14:20

vijayk wrote:
pankajs wrote:The strong mandate is being recognized up and down the line

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1167022159274758145

Except this fella ...

Bar & Bench
@barandbench
#RamMandir - #BabriMasjid: While Islam prohibits worship of anything apart from Allah, Hinduism says whatever you worship ultimately reaches the same one power.

Hinduism in that sense is different, Hindus can worship in a place where Namaz is offered, Justice DY Chandrachud.

This guy has to be impeached and never be made CJI. He will destroy India. He hates Indian constitution. He thinks he is westerner and needs to abolish the constitution and rewrite as he pleases.

Not to worry

1. To early to worry. Many a slip between the cup and the lip
2. One person alone can't swing the system one way or the other
3. Modi is aware of issues with the judiciary in general. Will be fixed in due time.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Aug 2019 14:24

Note ... May be in preparation of the verdict that is expected in 1 month or so ....OR may be something else is cooking.

https://twitter.com/Halal_Kaffir/status ... 2095391744
Chan @Halal_Kaffir

4 BSF Battalion deployed in Ayodhya
IG Police is stationed
High alert in neighboring cities
archeological team to visit temple site with home ministry

Democracy phir se khatre me padne wala hai

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Aug 2019 14:27

Note ... Judicial reforms will happen to curb hearing based on personalities / Lawyers involved.

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 2940568576
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

When #PChidambaram rushed to #SupremeCourt before his arrest, court showed no urgency.

And then SC spends 4 full days - - sort of a record - to hear his anticipatory bail plea. Bench concerned skipped cases pending for 10 yrs to hear this. Not many get over 4 min in SC to argue.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SriKumar » 30 Aug 2019 17:36

pankajs wrote:Note ... Judicial reforms will happen to curb hearing based on personalities / Lawyers involved.

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 2940568576
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

When #PChidambaram rushed to #SupremeCourt before his arrest, court showed no urgency.

And then SC spends 4 full days - - sort of a record - to hear his anticipatory bail plea. Bench concerned skipped cases pending for 10 yrs to hear this. Not many get over 4 min in SC to argue.
indeed I can't tell you how much I hate hearing about such things. The SC has about 50,000 cases pending (IIRC) and for them to delay cases like this is well.....no comment. if Modi can do anything to fix the decades-long delays in the Indian court system, he deserves 10 Bharat Ratnas and temple to boot :) In my book this is an even bigger problem for India than Pakistan. The effects of a geologically slow judicial process cascades into all aspects of society- social, economic, financial, political and eats into India from the inside.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Aug 2019 17:41

if Modi can do anything to fix the decades-long delays in the Indian court system, he deserves 10 Bharat Ratnas; in my book this is an even bigger problem for India than Pakistan. The effects of a geologically slow judicial process cascades into all aspects of society- social, economic, financial, political.


+108

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 30 Aug 2019 18:11

SriKumar wrote:
pankajs wrote:Note ... Judicial reforms will happen to curb hearing based on personalities / Lawyers involved.

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 2940568576
indeed I can't tell you how much I hate hearing about such things. The SC has about 50,000 cases pending (IIRC) and for them to delay cases like this is well.....no comment. if Modi can do anything to fix the decades-long delays in the Indian court system, he deserves 10 Bharat Ratnas and temple to boot :) In my book this is an even bigger problem for India than Pakistan. The effects of a geologically slow judicial process cascades into all aspects of society- social, economic, financial, political and eats into India from the inside.


To start with we should have supreme court branches in each state capitals or zones, something similar to the system in the US. Why should the location be centalised in Delhi and be vulnerable to the political pull and pressure there of? There should be a stricter limit or mechanism for appeals that go into or get admitted in the Supreme court. The High court appellate chamber/bench should be the last stage for non-serious litigation. It is simply ridiculous and even criminal for Rent Act and Landlord-Tenant cases to clog up the Supreme Court.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 30 Aug 2019 18:47

Suraj wrote:
kit wrote:Is there any mandate for the RBI to hold such a huge amount of reserves ? ..How did this happen in the first place ? Isnt this almost like saving away and not using anything at all ( a very naive picturisation of a shylock packing all his wealth under his bed while the house and even his cloth are in tatters ! )

Most of these decisions have historically been decided independently by RBI. It didn't matter when the numbers they were dealing with were small, but as the economy grows much larger, all the numbers become very large too. So much so that a single year of additional income from general mandated central bank business adds up to $25 billion, and their cash reserve many times that.

Like most things, this is a result of previous ad hoc arrangements no longer scaling as the economy grows much larger. That's why I mentioned in the previous post that there needs to be more statutory arrangements regarding RBI's reserve ratio rather than sit on enormous piles of cash that they maintain because they're just maintaining the same ratios they have, but in absolute terms that adds up to very large numbers now.

Prior RBI governors have disagreed on principle against the concept of GoI 'raiding RBI's balance sheet'. That is a fair argument. However, RBI itself has balance sheet capital reserve norms that arguably aren't up to date.

In addition, probably every incoming government should have the ability to sit down and craft an arrangement with RBI at the start of its term, or at least, a joint committee should be constituted from RBI and GoI every 5 years to make updates on such decisions.


The political dimension is an intriguing one. I don't have any data to support it but the modus operandi of previous govt was well known. 'Phone Banking' ie calls and intimidation of PSU bank chairmen to give malafide loans were very common. This is a fact. But I shall leave that there.

More importantly I don't agree with your suggestion ''every incoming government should have the ability to sit down and craft an arrangement with RBI at the start of its term, or at least, a joint committee should be constituted from RBI and GoI every 5 years to make updates on such decisions''.

This will make capital adequacy discussions into a ongoing horse trading dependent on political compulsions, personalities, negotiating ability. Very untransparent. The best solution is to fix capital adequacy by statute like its done for all banks. I suggest 5 %. If you want to be extremely conservative lets say 8%. There is absolutely no case for more than this. If highly risky investment banks with complex derivatives on their books can function with 8% surely Govt of India owned and backed RBI with plain vanilla linear risk can function at the same capital adequacy.

Everything over that is returned to shareholders ie govt. Clear, consistent and not dependent on politics.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 30 Aug 2019 19:20

Vips wrote:
SriKumar wrote:indeed I can't tell you how much I hate hearing about such things. The SC has about 50,000 cases pending (IIRC) and for them to delay cases like this is well.....no comment. if Modi can do anything to fix the decades-long delays in the Indian court system, he deserves 10 Bharat Ratnas and temple to boot :) In my book this is an even bigger problem for India than Pakistan. The effects of a geologically slow judicial process cascades into all aspects of society- social, economic, financial, political and eats into India from the inside.


To start with we should have supreme court branches in each state capitals or zones, something similar to the system in the US. Why should the location be centalised in Delhi and be vulnerable to the political pull and pressure there of? There should be a stricter limit or mechanism for appeals that go into or get admitted in the Supreme court. The High court appellate chamber/bench should be the last stage for non-serious litigation. It is simply ridiculous and even criminal for Rent Act and Landlord-Tenant cases to clog up the Supreme Court.


Lawyers need to be paid more for any scale up. The US system is not about perfect justice but it’s about clarity and an inexorable funnel towards a final judgement.

At some point both accused and prosecuted are gasping for relief from legal fees and welcome a settlement.

The certainty of outcome whatever it is , is good for economics.

Imagine valuation of companies which depend on a corporate legal case that is hanging for 10 years

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 19:25

CBI custody of P Chidambaram extended till September 2

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 19:28

Sachin wrote:^^^ It would also be better if similar reports are made available on successful investigations, charge sheeting and even sentencing. Registering FIR only means police has taken note of the crime and is "investigating". It just means that 216 peacefool hubbies in UP are now a worried lot.



Typical goal post move.
So far there was no recourse to even register FIR till now.
And you want fast track the Kaziciary and give another outrage vector.

SuSwa thinks like that and has a brigade of little whiners on twitter who are never happy until he gets a post.

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 19:30

A_Gupta wrote:
if Modi can do anything to fix the decades-long delays in the Indian court system, he deserves 10 Bharat Ratnas; in my book this is an even bigger problem for India than Pakistan. The effects of a geologically slow judicial process cascades into all aspects of society- social, economic, financial, political.


+108


And how is he supposed to do such things with out majority in Parliament?

Please don't give stretch goals and make everyone disappointed.

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 19:32

chetak wrote:CBI custody of P Chidambaram extended till September 2


PC seems to want to avoid the Enforcement Division guys who work for MHA now.

Its like the UP goons who want to be jailed for security.

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 19:35

vidur, you are right,

People elected the govt.
Its not like RBI owns the money.
Money belongs to the public.
So what is this negotiation thing?
There seems to be confusion between Federal Reserve and RBI.

RBI is a branch of govt not a private body setup to manage the economy.
R^3 wanted to make RBI akin to FDR and align with globalists.

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 19:36

Anybody not 27 PSU banks now merged into 12 big banks.
Some old time names like Andhra Bank gone.

ArjunPandit
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Aug 2019 19:36

ramana guru, aam abduls endured for 10 years...not everyone has patience and wisdom of bhishm pitamah like you..:-)


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