2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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ArjunPandit
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Aug 2019 19:45

ramana wrote:Anybody not 27 PSU banks now merged into 12 big banks.
Some old time names like Andhra Bank gone.

also note that this is not mindless merger of 90s it is a well thought out diversification. I heard from someone in know just now ..that they plan to strengthen the risk management across indian banks to world standards..they will centralized open risk management roles for the banks...in a way we are moving towards the TBTF banking model, sans the investment banking arms. That said I see many advantages of centralized banking
1. These banks with their separate IT and other infrastructure is reducing their cost competitiveness. A consolidated infrastructure will help standardize things
2. Shady businessmen are affecting the good ones by spooking everyone. Businesses dont have adhaar and having consolidated branchs in a region will help bankers. Many times same cheat takes money from 5 PSB banks in the market and is able to get away with some of the. This coupled with teh fact that commercial bureau has not taken off that well esp for SMEs due to the inherent challenges for SME , having consolidated branches will certainly help.
Dont think this is result in something overnight, like most things results would be evident after many years...

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 19:56

ramana wrote:
chetak wrote:CBI custody of P Chidambaram extended till September 2


PC seems to want to avoid the Enforcement Division guys who work for MHA now.

Its like the UP goons who want to be jailed for security.


yes, saar

per SM, it appears that PC is negotiating to voluntarily remain in the custody of the CBI.

When AS took over as HM, he got ED too, per his request.

looks like a well oiled plan has been set in motion,and in KAR and MP top congi bagmen have been snared by the ED.

Their acche dins should be commencing shortly. :mrgreen:

PC will never be able to explain away or spin this extended incarceration.

even the congi big gun legal eagles have been spiked effortlessly.

chiffon clad, pucca upper class accented lootyens mafia will be copiously crying bitter tears into their crystal glasses of single malts in their mahogany furnished and persian carpeted drawing rooms and the men are obviously glued to their toilet seats fearful of some adroit fence scaling sleuths and the proverbial midnight knock.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 20:07

its a clusterf(uk onlee.

Senior Advocates Kapil Sibal, Abhishek Manu Singhvi have taken their bat and ball and gone home in a huff after the umpires refused to cooperate with them and call it their way.

good luck, getting any lawyers fees out of PC.


twitter

P Chidambaram: We had mutually agreed to extending the remand till Monday. If they seek to extend remand by 5 days on merit, my instruction was to oppose it.

3:08 AM - 30 Aug 2019



twitter

SG Tushar Mehta as well as Senior Advocates Kapil Sibal, Abhishek Manu Singhvi missing from action today.

Senior Advocate Dayan Krishnan appears for P Chidambaram.

2 replies 4 retweets 16 likes
Reply 2 Retweet 4 Like 16



twitter


Judge asks if P Chidambaram was willing to remain in CBI custody till Monday.

Dayan: My Lords, may remand him till Monday.

P Chidambaram: We are opposing the remand application. There is simply to justification to keep me there.

2 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
Reply 2 Retweet 2 Like 13



twitter

Court allows Senior Advocate Dayan Krishnan to take instructions from P Chidambaram.

1 reply 3 retweets 11 likes
Reply 1 Retweet 3 Like 11
Last edited by chetak on 30 Aug 2019 20:13, edited 1 time in total.

vijayk
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 30 Aug 2019 20:12

May be negotiating with PC to bring down the $onia mafia

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 20:23

vijayk wrote:May be negotiating with PC to bring down the $onia mafia


"Curtly Ambrose" Subramanian Swamy@Swamy39 is bowling in that match.

His lethal bounce and pace is so fearsome to play against so most batsmen/women retire hurt well before the match itself commences onlee.

even the umpires will be wearing helmets and two abdomen guards each.

vijayk
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 30 Aug 2019 20:24

chetak wrote:
vijayk wrote:May be negotiating with PC to bring down the $onia mafia


"Curtly Ambrose" Subramanian Swamy@Swamy39 is bowling in that match.

His lethal bounce and pace is so fearsome to play against so most batsmen/women retire hurt well before the match itself commences onlee.

even the umpires will be wearing helmets and two abdomen guards each.


did not get that … Are you referring to NH case?

Is Swamy on MAD side or against it?

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 20:26

vijayk wrote:May be negotiating with PC to bring down the $onia mafia


No. He is in his own soup to avoid ED arrest under PMLA.
The tribunal chief is Judge Sunil Gaur!

Also very unprofessional of the highly paid KS and AMS to be AWOL in crucial hearing.
Should be debarred from Bar Council.
But they will hang out at the bar.

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 20:27

SuSwa is on his own side.
Never mistake that.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 20:29

vijayk wrote:
chetak wrote:
"Curtly Ambrose" Subramanian Swamy@Swamy39 is bowling in that match.

His lethal bounce and pace is so fearsome to play against so most batsmen/women retire hurt well before the match itself commences onlee.

even the umpires will be wearing helmets and two abdomen guards each.


did not get that … Are you referring to NH case?

Is Swamy on MAD side or against it?


Swamy is a one man army as you well know.

he is mostly on his own side but currently, and fortunately for us, his interests coincide with the interests of MAD in this specific instance.

ramana
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 30 Aug 2019 20:30

ArjunPandit wrote:
ramana wrote:Anybody not 27 PSU banks now merged into 12 big banks.
Some old time names like Andhra Bank gone.

also note that this is not mindless merger of 90s it is a well thought out diversification. I heard from someone in know just now ..that they plan to strengthen the risk management across indian banks to world standards..they will centralized open risk management roles for the banks...in a way we are moving towards the TBTF banking model, sans the investment banking arms. That said I see many advantages of centralized banking
1. These banks with their separate IT and other infrastructure is reducing their cost competitiveness. A consolidated infrastructure will help standardize things
2. Shady businessmen are affecting the good ones by spooking everyone. Businesses dont have adhaar and having consolidated branchs in a region will help bankers. Many times same cheat takes money from 5 PSB banks in the market and is able to get away with some of the. This coupled with teh fact that commercial bureau has not taken off that well esp for SMEs due to the inherent challenges for SME , having consolidated branches will certainly help.
Dont think this is result in something overnight, like most things results would be evident after many years...


In Hyderabad, there is an institute of risk management setup by a former Dy Governor of RBI.

its now taken over/ run by IAS retirees.

The founder deliberately called it diploma course to avoid UGC take over!

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Aug 2019 20:33

ramana wrote:
vijayk wrote:May be negotiating with PC to bring down the $onia mafia


No. He is in his own soup to avoid ED arrest under PMLA.
The tribunal chief is Judge Sunil Gaur!


Also very unprofessional of the highly paid KS and AMS to be AWOL in crucial hearing.
Should be debarred from Bar Council.
But they will hang out at the bar.



Saar,

No. He is in his own soup to avoid ED arrest under PMLA.
The tribunal chief is Judge Sunil Gaur!


I have tears in my eyes from the uncontrollable laughter.

this is a soup of some epic proportions.

ArjunPandit
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Aug 2019 20:40

irrespective of institute, I assert India has the talent in the field of risk management to establish a world beating banking risk management from start to end. I say it from experience. All you need is three things, money, vision and the will to plough through the challenges.
All top global banks have their risk management shops being run out of India. They have quant models developed, validated, monitored outta india strategies for US market driven out of India.At one place people were concerned with ~1000 in India on this. You'll find folks with significant experience too. HSBC, Citi, SCB, Barclays, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Amex, GE, ICICI have been doing this stuff for close to two decades now...this industry is full of Indians for the comfort of many goras..

Sachin
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 30 Aug 2019 20:58

ramana wrote:So far there was no recourse to even register FIR till now.

Sir, FIR registration is important :). But what happens next? Let it take some time, but it would be better to evaluate the results of these FIRs as well (may be after six months or a year). Because only that can prove the efficiency of the new law. How many FIRs led to successful chargesheeting? How many sentenced? How many cases in which the accused (peacefool hubby) went for a compromise with his wifey and case dismissed? Such numbers if they are positive is only going to help BJP even further.

PC seems to want to avoid the Enforcement Division guys who work for MHA now.

May be Chidambaram also knows that Enforcement Directorate also has more substantial evidence listed against him? And that they have more ways to corner PC? Perhaps these agencies should start some thing like a JIC (Joint Interrogation Centre - Papa 1 & Papa 2) which was tried out in Kashmir. Every agency gets a chance to interrogate the suspect at one convenient location.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SriKumar » 30 Aug 2019 22:30

ramana wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:
+108


And how is he supposed to do such things with out majority in Parliament?

Please don't give stretch goals and make everyone disappointed.
Yenna saar, sollaringe? Stretch goals for Modi? Is he reading the phorum? If so, I am flattered that he would even deign to read my post. :D Arrey bhai..... Modi hai to mumkin hai.
Per the grand plan, he is going to bring water to all the villages (and they are already electrified). His other projects started in the first term plus projects this term will come to fruition in the next few years. 2024 should bring the Rajya Sabha into the bag as well. Atleast that is my prayer. Putting it differently, if he (or his immediate successor) cannot, then no one can. I still recall ABV giving a speech about the terrible delays in judiciary system with the then-CJI present on the same dias. This was about 2 decades ago.

Suraj
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 30 Aug 2019 22:38

Vidur wrote:More importantly I don't agree with your suggestion ''every incoming government should have the ability to sit down and craft an arrangement with RBI at the start of its term, or at least, a joint committee should be constituted from RBI and GoI every 5 years to make updates on such decisions''.

This will make capital adequacy discussions into a ongoing horse trading dependent on political compulsions, personalities, negotiating ability. Very untransparent. The best solution is to fix capital adequacy by statute like its done for all banks. I suggest 5 %. If you want to be extremely conservative lets say 8%. There is absolutely no case for more than this. If highly risky investment banks with complex derivatives on their books can function with 8% surely Govt of India owned and backed RBI with plain vanilla linear risk can function at the same capital adequacy.

Everything over that is returned to shareholders ie govt. Clear, consistent and not dependent on politics.

I don't think there's scope for disagreement here - I do support autonomy of the RBI in terms of its own operational mandate, and I do not think any incoming government should have an agenda to fiddle with that.

However, I think it's a good idea that each incoming government ought to be able to sit down with the central bank and state its economic policy goals, and come to a mutual agreement early on. Or at least, for GoI and RBI to do so regularly. In recent years, the interaction between RBI and FinMin has been plagued by avoidable disagreements.

I also agree with a significant revision of norms regarding RBI's capital reserve adequacy requirements. The Bimal Jalan committee addresses this, but in a very narrow sense, even though the ~1% reduction in CF as a percentage of balance sheet alone amounted to >50 lakh crore!

Bart S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 30 Aug 2019 23:08

x-posting

VERY Important read and useful info:
https://sniwire.com/defence-security/ag ... half-lies/

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 31 Aug 2019 00:56

Opening move ...

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 8.ece/amp/
Himachal passes Bill against ‘forced conversion’
The Himachal Pradesh Assembly passed a Bill on Friday against conversion by force, inducement or through marriages solemnised for the “sole purpose” of adopting a new religion.

The Opposition supported the Himachal Pradesh Freedom of Religion Bill, 2019, which was passed unanimously with a voice vote.

Replying to the discussion, Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur said a new stringent legislation was required as “forced conversion”, especially in Rampur and Kinnaur, was “on the rise.”

The Bill seeks to repeal the Himachal Pradesh Freedom of Religion Act, 2006, which is on similar lines. The new Bill proposes stringent punishments — up to seven years in jail compared to the three years under the existing law.

The Bill prohibits conversion by misrepresentation, force, undue influence, coercion, inducement, marriage or any fraudulent means. Any marriage for the sole purpose of conversion will also be declared null and void under Section 5 of the Bill.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 31 Aug 2019 01:41

there is a lot more to the removal of Art 370 than meets the casual eye. We need to hold steadfast, now more than ever.

The pakis, backed cleverly by the hans operating in the background will be the first to move. Exposing their hand as also their long term interests/involvement will benefit us in the short term and in bringing their perfidious meddling out into the open.

We also need to watch the ameriki deep state like a hawk. They are the smilers with the knife, always friendly but never your friend and always looking over your shoulder but in reality, keenly scouting for that sweet spot to plunge the knife and they have been at it, one way or the other, since before 1947 when they planned and replaced the britshits as the dominant power in this region.

their vital interests in the gulf have always made them prefer the eager paki jehadis to an often recalcitrant India and they are back to playing the great game once again, albeit with a different set of allies and adversaries.

our position as the catspaw as well as the patsy has not changed that much even though our circumstances certainly have.

One change, most unexpected by all of them (and the dismayed pakis, most of all) is that the Indian soldier has proved time and again, to be committed, devoted, dedicated, dependable, and above all resolutely and dutifully firm and unwavering in his given task. He is now the bulwark that makes them hesitate because they see no way to get around him.

the great efforts put in by the US deep state as well as the hans in actively aiding the pakis in nuclearizing as well as conventionally weaponizing against India should tell us a great deal about their actual intent and their evergreen plans for us as a vassal state whose uncomplaining job it is to provide the various successors of the east India company the markets, resources, and the all important cannon fodder manpower exactly as we did in world wars I and II.

Its also too bad for them that their preferred jehadi son has been fluffing his lines and missing his cues ever since he first made a right royal mess and a dog's breakfast out of cashmere which he almost overran the very first time with a combined bunch of some regulars and mostly jehadi rapists who lost sight of their mission because they were diverted by their stiff pr!cks as they dallied to rape and pillage.




Standing up to China-Pak Nexus


Standing up to China-Pak Nexus

China’s strategy is to attack India’s weak points and stymie its rise to the extent possible. Beijing views the Indian portion of J&K as India’s Achilles Heel

Brahma Chellaney
23 Aug, 2019



Pakistan saw Article 370 as Indian acceptance that Kashmir is a disputed territory. The constitutional change can help India to more ably counter the China-Pakistan nexus.

CONTROL OF THE original princely state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is divided among India, Pakistan and China, but only India was maintaining special powers and privileges for its portion, which makes up 45 per cent of the erstwhile kingdom. Take Pakistan, which seeks to redraw borders in blood by grabbing the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley from India: Far from granting autonomy or special status to the parts of J&K it holds (the sprawling Gilgit-Baltistan and the so-called Azad Kashmir), Pakistan has treated them as its colonies, exercising arbitrary control over them, recklessly exploiting their natural resources and changing their demographic profiles. In fact, Pakistan unlawfully ceded a strategically important slice of the increasingly restive Gilgit-Baltistan to China in 1963.

Today, China occupies 20 per cent of the original state of J&K, including the areas it surreptitiously encroached upon in the 1950s or seized during its 1962 invasion of India as well as the trans-Karakoram tract (comprising mainly the Shaksgam Valley) that Pakistan ceded to it under the 1963 Sino-Pakistani Frontier Agreement. That transfer of territory was a unique case in modern history of one nation gifting another with a sizeable slice of the land that it had gained control of earlier in a war with a third country (India).

The action of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Government in revoking the statehood and special constitutional status of India’s J&K caught most by surprise, although the BJP had long espoused such a move. If anything, the Modi Government’s legacy-shaping constitutional change in relation to J&K was long in coming. The reason was that the Modi Government, in its first term, did not have majority support in the Rajya Sabha.

No sooner had the Government cobbled together Rajya Sabha majority support than it acted on J&K to level the field by giving the people there the same rights and responsibilities as all other Indian citizens. Revoking J&K’s special status, carving out Ladakh as a separate Union Territory and repealing the misogynistic Article 35A (which permitted women to be stripped of their rights in J&K if they married outsiders) were bold moves, executed in one fell swoop. The fact that both Houses of Parliament ratified the moves with two-third majorities, with several opposition parties lending support, reflects their popularity across the country.

The timing of the Government’s steps was driven not just by domestic factors but also by international considerations. Indeed, US President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan might have precipitated Modi’s action in stripping J&K of its special status. “If I can help, I would love to be a mediator,” Trump said on July 22nd while hosting Pakistan’s military-backed Prime Minister, Imran Khan, at the Oval Office. Trump of late has been rehyphenating India with Pakistan and drawing a perverse equivalence between the two countries. This is in keeping with his administration’s new courtship of Pakistan, which has been given a key role in the current US plan to exit the war in Afghanistan.

In fact, the timing of Modi’s action was also influenced by Trump’s looming Faustian bargain with the Pakistan-reared Afghan Taliban. A resurgent Pakistan-Taliban duo controlling Afghanistan would spell greater trouble for India’s J&K, including through increased cross-border entry of armed jihadists. Trump is desperate to end US involvement in the war in Afghanistan and pull out the majority of American troops before seeking re-election next year. With Imran Khan by his side, Trump begged Pakistan to “extricate us” from Afghanistan.

The irony is that the US is stuck in the longest war in its history because of Pakistan, which, by harbouring the Taliban’s command-and-control base, has effectively undercut the American military mission in Afghanistan. As the top US military commander in Afghanistan admitted in 2017, “It is very difficult to succeed on the battlefield when your enemy enjoys external support and safe haven.”

China has increasingly played the J&K card against India in the past decade. China fomented the Naga and Mizo insurgencies, taught its ‘all-weather’ client Pakistan how to wage proxy war against India

Indeed, it is worth remembering that the US got into the Afghanistan military quagmire because of its reluctance to take the war to the other side of the Durand Line by targeting the Taliban’s sanctuaries and leadership in Pakistan. In modern world history, no counterterrorism campaign has ever succeeded when the militants have enjoyed cross-border state sponsorship and safe havens. Pakistan’s sponsorship of terror against India also explains why the Kashmir Valley remains a terrorist hotbed.

For years, instead of taking out the Taliban’s cross-border bases, the US actively sought ‘reconciliation’, allowing the militia to gain strength. The protracted search for a bargain with the Taliban also explains why that terrorist militia was never added to the US list of foreign terrorist organisations. The American approach counterproductively has not only led to an ascendant Taliban expanding its territorial control, but also has emboldened the terrorism-exporting Pakistani military.

Just last year, Trump tweeted that though Pakistan received more than $33 billion in American aid since 2002, it has returned ‘nothing but lies and deceit’, including providing ‘safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan’. But today, the US is coming full circle on both the Taliban and Pakistan.

After suffering its worst ever terrorist attack, the US turned against the Taliban and drove it from power in Kabul in 2001. Now, in search of a face-saving exit from the Afghanistan war, America has embraced the Taliban in high-level deal-making, which risks handing over Afghanistan to the same thuggish group that the US ousted from power. And seeking to appease Pakistan, Washington recently facilitated a $6-billion International Monetary Fund bailout for Pakistan and relaxed its suspension of military aid by clearing $125 million in assistance for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet.

Pakistan—through its brutal proxies, the Taliban and the Haqqani network—has compelled the US to negotiate the terms of its surrender in Afghanistan and seek Pakistani support for a face-saving exit. This explains why the US, while sidelining the elected Afghan government in its deal-making with the Taliban, has openly signalled its readiness to accept Pakistan’s primacy in Afghanistan.

Yet another factor behind the Modi Government’s rejigging of J&K’s constitutional status was China, including its strengthening axis with Pakistan. China has increasingly played the J&K card against India in the past decade. In fact, China, which fomented the Naga and Mizo insurgencies, taught its ‘all-weather’ client Pakistan how to wage proxy war against India. China still fans flames in India’s Northeast. For example, Paresh Baruah, the long-time fugitive commander-in-chief of the United Liberation Front of Assam, has been traced to Ruili, in China’s Yunnan province. Some other Indian insurgent leaders have been ensconced in Myanmar’s Yunnan-bordering region controlled by the China-backed Kachin Independence Army.

In 2010, Beijing honed the J&K argument against New Delhi by aggressively adopting a stapled-visa policy for Indian citizens from J&K. To mount pressure, Beijing has tacitly questioned India’s sovereignty over the portion of J&K under Indian control and officially shortened the length of the Himalayan border it shares with India by purging the 1,597-kilometre line separating Indian J&K from Chinese-held J&K.

The defanging of Article 370 may not stem the Arabisation of the Valley’s Islam but it will end the ambiguity on J&K’s status by integrating it fully with the Indian Union

No surprise then that China took the lead earlier this month to internationalise the J&K issue by successfully calling for a special but informal UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on the dispute, but only in relation to ‘the India-Pakistan question’. By brazenly cloaking its own role in the dispute, including unlawful occupation of parts of J&K, China has presented J&K as just an India-Pakistan issue.

The fact is that China’s occupation, which started in the mid-1950s, has effectively gutted the 1948 UNSC resolution, which came after Pakistan seized more than 35 per cent of J&K. The mandated first step in implementing that resolution was Pakistan’s vacation of its occupation. But after China’s change of the J&K territorial map, the first step would mean vacation of both Pakistani- and Chinese-held areas of J&K. That seems impossible, given that Beijing has formally annexed parts of J&K (including Aksai Chin), built the strategic Karakoram Highway to Pakistan through the internationally recognised disputed region and is now implementing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in a similar manner.

The UNSC’s China-engineered J&K discussion on August 16th may seem inconsequential because an informal, closed-door meeting like this normally has no resolution for consideration. China, despite support from a Britain still hooked to imperial fantasies, failed to get even a joint statement adopted. A joint statement to the press constitutes the lowest level of action by the Security Council.

Undeterred, however, the Chinese ambassador to the UN sought to spin the discussions while briefing the international media. Claiming to present a “summary” of the discussions, the envoy of the world’s largest, strongest and longest-lasting autocracy—which has incarcerated more than a million Muslims and re-engineered the demography of all its minority homelands by settling Han Chinese in large numbers—spoke about the “human rights situation” in Indian J&K.

Still, it would be a mistake to believe that China’s UNSC machinations yielded nothing. The fact is that these machinations are only emboldening Pakistan and its terrorist proxies. Pakistan currently hosts 22 UN-listed terrorist entities and at least 133 of the UN-designated global terrorists. China’s scheming also aids separatists in Indian J&K.

In fact, China’s diplomatic success in convening the UNSC meeting—even if it resulted in only talk, no action—sent a jarring signal to India, bringing its J&K policy under international spotlight. The closed-door huddle at the UN headquarters represented the first official UNSC meeting on Kashmir since 1971, when Indian military intervention helped create Bangladesh. Indeed, the Chinese machinations have served as a reminder to India that China’s J&K interference will only increase. This is partly due to the CPEC projects in Pakistan-held J&K, where Chinese military presence is growing, including near Pakistan’s Line of Control with India.

Make no mistake: China’s strategy is to attack India’s weak points and stymie its rise to the extent possible. Beijing views the Indian portion of J&K as India’s Achilles heel.

Against this background, the J&K constitutional change can help India to more ably counter the Sino-Pakistani nexus centred on Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. For starters, India has separated its J&K-related territorial disputes with Pakistan and China by carving out Ladakh as a new federally administered territory and turning the rest of its J&K from a state into a Union Territory with a legislature.

Separating Ladakh from J&K was long overdue. In defiance of the grassroots demand for Ladakh to be made a separate entity, this vast frontier region critical to India’s national security was kept for decades under the administrative control of a J&K leadership which was from the Kashmir Valley and often secretly sympathetic to secessionists. The result was that Ladakh—the bulwark against the Chinese military’s march to the southern foothills of the Himalayas—remained neglected and economically backward.

Today, with jihadists increasingly calling the shots in parts of the Kashmir Valley, the constitutional change empowers the Central Government with greater authority in dealing with the J&K security situation. Three decades of a Pakistan-sponsored Islamist insurrection in the Valley made continuation of the status quo indefensible and unsustainable. After years of bloodshed—a period in which Pakistan sought to exploit the Indian J&K’s special status—a change became imperative.

In fact, Article 370, although designed to reassure J&K’s Muslim-majority population by granting substantial autonomy to the state, came to be seen by Pakistan as Indian acceptance that J&K is a disputed territory. That only encouraged the Pakistani establishment to up the ante. Article 370, by allowing only permanent residents to own land, also encouraged Islamists in the Valley to change, by force, demography and property holdings by expelling Kashmiri Pandits. This expulsion constituted one of the most successful and swiftest ethnic-cleansing operations in modern world history.

With its diverse ethnic and religious communities, J&K was a microcosm of pluralistic India, before its syncretic culture and traditions came under a sustained Islamist onslaught. Since 1989, with successive governments in New Delhi helpless to arrest the trend, the pluralistic traditions of Kashmir have largely given way to a Wahhabi/Salafi culture. The defanging of Article 370 may not stem the Arabisation of the Valley’s Islam but it will certainly help to end the ambiguity on J&K’s status by integrating it fully with the Indian Union.

India has managed reasonably well the international fallout from its J&K action. But India now must brace up to its internal-security and regional challenges. The militant stronghold of the Kashmir Valley makes up just 15 per cent of the area of the J&K state, to be dissolved on October 31st. But it is home to 55 per cent of the state’s population. The current Government restrictions on movement and communications directly impinge on constitutionally guaranteed civil liberties. Yet, given the high risk of a deterioration of the security situation, these restrictions can be eased only in a graduated manner.

Let’s be clear: While the people of Hong Kong are fighting for democracy, the armed jihadists in the Kashmir Valley reject democracy and wish to establish a caliphate. In this situation, authorities must lift or re-impose restrictions in the Valley’s troubled districts as part of a decentralised, calibrated strategy that seeks to build peace at the local level in each borough through reward and punishment.

Three decades of a Pakistan-sponsored Islamist insurrection in the Valley made continuation of the status quo indefensible and unsustainable. After years of bloodshed-a period in which Pakistan sought to exploit the Indian J&K’s special status-a change became imperative

India’s bigger challenge relates to the deepening Sino-Pakistani nexus. This nexus increasingly keeps the Indian armed forces and police on their mettle. India is the world’s only country wedged between two nuclear-armed allies that defy even basic international rules and norms.

With China’s protection, Pakistan will continue to use armed jihadists as a force multiplier against India. China provides Pakistan security assurances and political protection, especially diplomatic cover at the UN. Covert nuclear and missile assistance from Beijing also continues. So, Pakistan cannot afford to stop being China’s loyal client, especially since that relationship—however lopsided—aims to tie down India.

India needs to tackle head on Pakistan’s protracted proxy war by seeking to impose costs on the Pakistani military generals (the terror masters), rather than on their expendable terrorist proxies. India’s 2016 ground-launched surgical strike after the Uri terrorist attack and the more recent Balakot raid in February targeted only the terrorist surrogates, leaving the generals unscathed to continue their death-by-a-thousand-cuts strategy against India.

The power behind Pakistan, however, is China, against which India is reluctant to even speak up. In fact, Beijing is using the profits from its spiralling trade surplus with India to expand its military capability and advance its aggressive ambitions without firing a shot. India is effectively funding its own containment. China already dominates India’s telecom sector but New Delhi, instead of banning Huawei from its 5G trials, is still searching for a middle ground.

No surprise then that Indian policy is emboldening Beijing to up the ante through both Pakistan and direct border provocations. China has also been engaged in other diplomatic needling, including calling the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh ‘southern Tibet’ since 2006. Although J&K is split among three countries (with only India claiming the whole of it), New Delhi, by refusing to speak up, has allowed Beijing to cleverly present itself at the UN and elsewhere as a sort of neutral party interested in lowering tensions between two of its ‘friends’, India and Pakistan.

The Wuhan spirit did not survive even a week after the April 2018 Wuhan summit. Yet, despite China’s latest provocations, President Xi Jinping will be in India in October for a second Wuhan-like informal summit, which could be held in Varanasi.

Before that summit, China intends to take India round and round the mulberry bush in yet another round of border talks. The fruitless border negotiations are being held ad infinitum since 1981, when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister, with Beijing dangling a new carrot every few years but refusing to abandon its revanchist claims on Indian-governed territories. Beijing’s newest carrot has been meretriciously labelled ‘early harvest’ proposal by a gullible Indian media, although the proposal remains completely shrouded in mystery. The proposal will likely turn out to be little more than another ride for India on the Chinese merry-go-round.

New Delhi, instead of lending a helping hand to Beijing’s strategy of engagement as a façade for containing India, must start imposing economic and diplomatic costs on China in a calibrated manner, including by taking a leaf out of Trump’s trade-war playbook. China’s predatory trade practices are systematically undermining Indian manufacturing and competitiveness, with the result that Modi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative has yet to seriously take off.

Economically, the least New Delhi can do is erect roadblocks on China’s inroads into key Indian sectors. Politically, India needs to strengthen its hand by exercising countervailing leverage. If India continues to ignore China’s provocations, including the recent UNSC machinations, it will be negotiating from a position of weakness when Modi hosts Xi in October or when next month National Security Adviser Ajit Doval meets his Chinese counterpart in the border talks.

More fundamentally, J&K is a core issue of secular identity and national security for India. While India’s J&K is open to foreign media, the Pakistani- and Chinese-controlled portions are not. To report from Gilgit-Baltistan or ‘Azad’ Kashmir, Pakistan requires foreign journalists to seek military permission in the form of a No-Objection Certificate. The open access India grants to international media, however, has resulted in biased coverage by journalists focusing only on security measures, stone-pelting rowdies and hospitalised rioters. The negative coverage carries wider implications. For example, an adverse report on J&K released by the UN’s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in June 2018 relied mainly on such distorted media coverage.

The changed constitutional status of J&K is a watershed for India. In the short run, the security situation in the Kashmir Valley could worsen, resulting in India coming under greater pressure from domestic and foreign critics and human rights groups. But over the longer term, J&K’s greater integration and development are likely to contribute to the normalisation of the situation in the Valley. India must stay the course unflinchingly, bearing short-term pain to secure long-term gain.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 31 Aug 2019 11:24

Mean while in Assam..
Over 19 lakh excluded from updated NRC list
There are also rumours that BJP would repush the citizenship amendment act, which would help non-Muslims to gain quick citizenship in India. And that the actions based on NRC would only be taken after that.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 31 Aug 2019 12:35

Sachin wrote:Mean while in Assam..
Over 19 lakh excluded from updated NRC list
There are also rumours that BJP would repush the citizenship amendment act, which would help non-Muslims to gain quick citizenship in India. And that the actions based on NRC would only be taken after that.


Only 19 lakhs. I thought the 40 lakhs excluded last year was less. If it's only 20 lakhs, they might not as well have gone through the exercise. That's just 6% of the total number of applicants.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 31 Aug 2019 13:17

Sachin wrote:
ramana wrote:So far there was no recourse to even register FIR till now.

Sir, FIR registration is important :). But what happens next? Let it take some time, but it would be better to evaluate the results of these FIRs as well (may be after six months or a year). Because only that can prove the efficiency of the new law. How many FIRs led to successful chargesheeting? How many sentenced? How many cases in which the accused (peacefool hubby) went for a compromise with his wifey and case dismissed? Such numbers if they are positive is only going to help BJP even further.

PC seems to want to avoid the Enforcement Division guys who work for MHA now.

May be Chidambaram also knows that Enforcement Directorate also has more substantial evidence listed against him? And that they have more ways to corner PC? Perhaps these agencies should start some thing like a JIC (Joint Interrogation Centre - Papa 1 & Papa 2) which was tried out in Kashmir. Every agency gets a chance to interrogate the suspect at one convenient location.

https://youtu.be/uSBOlxFG56I
Mr ‘Undead ‘(Amar)Singh making tall claims of Chiddu’s involvement and having proof
But can he be trusted and
Also why Undead Singh wants to cooperate now
He has already been using‘USB 3.0’ connector via Jayapradha
But if there is as Nindha Turtle says ‘toos Saboot’ can It not be used :?: :?:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 31 Aug 2019 13:50

X-post

NRC Assam list is out. Only 1.9 million has been excluded from the original 4.1 million initially. Seems weird that 2.2 million will have been excluded by mistake. There may be serious flaws in the NRC list. Needs to be re-checked.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 31 Aug 2019 14:17

Out of the 40 lakhs not in NRC in the final draft, 5 lakhs did not submit any papers and contest their exclusion. Out of the remaining 35 lakh, only 14 lakh did not appear in the final list.

There won't be any rechecking as Supreme Court doesn't allow it. It would be difficult to remove already published names. They should have excluded as many as they could and then included those who produced correct documents. At least there should not have been so many new additions to the final draft of last year. I wonder if the state govt had control over the process.

I always felt the whole NRC exercise is too good to be true. It's almost nothing too positive can happen for India and Hindus. Too many people conspiring against us to keep us on a leash.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 31 Aug 2019 15:00

here is our own darling press.

filled with presstitutes, darbaris, sold outs and ideologically two faced naxals with poison pens and those with a soapbox to peddle their lies and slanted news.

twitter

Today's headlines:

"Re Crashes below 72 in global currency rout"

"Yuan slides to 11 year low over trade war escalation"

Indian Rupee crashed ( it is a 9 month low but is a CRASH ).

Chinese Yuan slides. ( it is a 11 year low but is a SLIDE)

Somethings don't change.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 31 Aug 2019 16:01

NRC can be re-verified as it is an executive decision. I don't think the courts can do anything. Must be re-verified as 2.2 million suddenly making it in seems incorrect prima facie.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 31 Aug 2019 17:30

chetak wrote:

We also need to watch the ameriki deep state like a hawk. They are the smilers with the knife, always friendly but never your friend and always looking over your shoulder but in reality, keenly scouting for that sweet spot to plunge the knife and they have been at it....


https://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/1167 ... 74465?s=20

Tweet
Conversation

Subramanian Swamy
@Swamy39
I have now a solid hint that if India agrees to to defend Afghanistan against terrorists like Taliban, and thus allow US to withdraw its troops, then US will side with India in taking back PoK
12:12 PM · Aug 31, 2019·TweetCaster for iOS


Deep State talks through SwamyTard

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby panduranghari » 31 Aug 2019 18:05

Vidur wrote:
Could not sleep so thought I would share my views on Central Bank Independence. My background is in Economics and I have studied financial systems across the world at some length as its an area of interest.

1. Independence : I believe that Central Banks must have independence to set monetary policy and an explict inflation target as its benchmark. This ensures that all government's natural desire for fiscal expansion does not lead to run away inflation as central banks can counter that through monetary policy. Monetary policy's main aim should be inflation targeting not growth targeting . This is especially important in a developing economy like India as inflation hits the poorest. Whenever central banks have tried to target growth instead of inflation it has lead to disaster. Western central banks pumped money into the system leading to the 2008 financial crisis. After the crisis they bailed out banks and pumped even more money into the system to keep asset prices artificially inflated. This lead to more than a decade long financial repression of the masses while the elite got richer. This included all asset owning classes. So I strongly endorse central bank independence in monetary policy.

2. Reserves : RBI reserves are 10 lac crores and its assets are 36 lac crores. Thus it holds about 28% reserves. Central Banks around the world have different legal structures. The Fed for example is semi private. However the RBI by statute is part of the Government of India and hence its credit is same as India's sovereign credit. Therefore it does not need high reserves. Even private investment banks - the riskiest category of financial institutions across the world hold about 8% of assets as capital (including reserves). There is no case for RBI to hold anything above 8%. In fact 5 % would be more than enough. Furthermore, RBI's profits are a direct consequence of economic activity in India especially INR weakening. Therefore it must return all its profits to the people of India ie the Government of India. A law must be passed that fixes RBI's capital adequacy at 5% or at max 8%. All surplus in addition to that must be returned to GOI.


1/There is no political will to give central banks true independence. The ECB is in effect only truly independent central bank with one mandate- 2% inflation.( why 2% inflation should be acceptable is a different question). All the other central banks have 2 mandates- 2% inflation and full employment. Both these mandates are fair weather friends.

2/The definition of reserves itself is a contentious issue.1991 is the main reason why we hold higher reserves. Other reason being energy dependence. Indian SPR will probably last for 4 days. We can't transfer surplus to government from the central bank. At least RBI is better run than other central banks right from CD Deshmukh's time. India was not insolvent in 1991, we were illiquid. We will have to face those demons again but I think we are better prepared. There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 31 Aug 2019 18:48

Indian SPR will probably last for 4 days.

What's SPR?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 31 Aug 2019 19:44

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Indian SPR will probably last for 4 days.

What's SPR?

Strategic Petroleum Reserves

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby habal » 31 Aug 2019 19:51

Indian SPR is 2 weeks always.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ShyamSP » 31 Aug 2019 20:28

Manish_Sharma wrote:
chetak wrote:

We also need to watch the ameriki deep state like a hawk. They are the smilers with the knife, always friendly but never your friend and always looking over your shoulder but in reality, keenly scouting for that sweet spot to plunge the knife and they have been at it....


https://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/1167 ... 74465?s=20

Tweet
Conversation

Subramanian Swamy
@Swamy39
I have now a solid hint that if India agrees to to defend Afghanistan against terrorists like Taliban, and thus allow US to withdraw its troops, then US will side with India in taking back PoK
12:12 PM · Aug 31, 2019·TweetCaster for iOS


Deep State talks through SwamyTard


At least India should start with limited military engagement with India command. Sitting pretty in house and wishing your street fights go away don't work. If you have to take POK or split Pakistan you'll need to have military engagement there also for many years if not decades.'

India should be more pro-active than some one giving offers for engagement. It eventually have to cover from South of Russia to Gwadar

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 31 Aug 2019 21:34

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/centre-assam-devising-new-ways-to-oust-foreigners-himanta-biswa-sarma/story-WEY8EcZDQzhzlDG6j5MKON.html

Assam Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Saturday said he had lost all hope in the National Register of Citizens as the Centre and the state government were discussing new ways to oust foreigners from the state.

Speaking to the media ahead of the release of the final NRC list, Sarma said: “I have lost all hope in the NRC. I just want the day to pass off peacefully, without any incident.”

The Minister further added: “Delhi and the Assam government are discussing new ways to oust foreigners from the state. I don’t think this is the final list, there are many more to come.”

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 31 Aug 2019 21:40

Supratik wrote:NRC can be re-verified as it is an executive decision. I don't think the courts can do anything. Must be re-verified as 2.2 million suddenly making it in seems incorrect prima facie.


https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/centre-assam-devising-new-ways-to-oust-foreigners-himanta-biswa-sarma/story-WEY8EcZDQzhzlDG6j5MKON.html

The Centre and the Assam government had in July moved the Supreme Court seeking re-verification of 20 per cent of the names in the draft NRC. However, the apex court dismissed the request earlier this month.


The whole process seems to have been out of control of the state govt's hand. Either the state govt was lapse or they were helpless.

“NRC did not take the refugee certificate issued prior to 1971 in cognizance. This will be considered by the Tribunal which will hear the appeals. This will leave around 11 lakh. Again, there are many whose parents are included but are left out in the current list. When they will be included, the total number of exclusion will only be 6-7 lakh, which is very less,” Sarma said.


This is just a farce.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 31 Aug 2019 23:34

ShyamSP wrote:

At least India should start with limited military engagement with India command. Sitting pretty in house and wishing your street fights go away don't work.


We will do what and when we want not because USA messenger Swamy brings command, obama made iran deal, trump came and broke it, we send our soldiers to die IN PATHETIC HOPE THAT THEY WILL HELP us get PoK.

Our soldiers shouldn't be sent there.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 31 Aug 2019 23:42

They have to first find out the loop holes that were used to get into the NRC before the next steps can be taken.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 01 Sep 2019 00:24

Obviously something happened between July 2018 and Aug 2019 so that suddenly 4.1 million became 1.9 million and now we are told even less. We have to find out what happened.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 01 Sep 2019 02:33

Cadbury 'Unity Bar' promoting diversity in India sparks global debate
https://m.republicworld.com/world-news/ ... bal-debate

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 01 Sep 2019 07:14

Manish_Sharma wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:

At least India should start with limited military engagement with India command. Sitting pretty in house and wishing your street fights go away don't work.


We will do what and when we want not because USA messenger Swamy brings command, obama made iran deal, trump came and broke it, we send our soldiers to die IN PATHETIC HOPE THAT THEY WILL HELP us get PoK.

Our soldiers shouldn't be sent there.


I don’t think anyone expect Indians to put boots in Afghanistan just parts of POK .

This will affect the equation in Afghanistan

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Sep 2019 09:31

one of the reasons for urjit patels' abrupt departure may have been his inability/unwillingness to explain his arbitrary decision to curtail dividend payments to the GoI, two years running.

viral acharya, another revolutionary deputy governor with an equally big mouth resigned with six months to go on his tenure and he had a pre deployed parachute in the form of a teaching post at his alma mater, New York University.

Was it at all surprising to anyone that the academic year at the New York University started at around the same time that he "resigned". maybe his leave of absence was up and if he did not return in time his tenured and perfumed chair may have been at risk, almost exactly like RRR's "resignation" drama, in fact

apparently viral acharya also had issues with "autonomy", he being either completely unaware or uncaring of the section 5 of the RBI act.

one wonders why these elite paragons of the revolution are completely silent when on foreign shores. maybe they all fear the cavity search and so behave like model colonial subjects ever willing to abjectly crawl before white skinned authority.

and yet in all these 70 odd years, not one RBI chappie has ever stood up, raised his hand and publicly said "I am also responsible for the $hitty state that the economy is in"

True blue bureaucrats only.

They grab all the authority, the perks, the many entitlements and insist on the warrant of precedence for the best seats at the republic day parade and absolutely refuse to take any responsibility at all for their actions.

They can spin any of their past opinions or statements to prove that it was completely misinterpreted by others and they meant the exact opposite of what the others thought that they heard or read.

economists are truly teflon coated and so remain eternally blameless and stainless.



RBI’s High Payout To Government Was No Favour: It Merely Made Amends For Earlier Short Payments



RBI’s High Payout To Government Was No Favour: It Merely Made Amends For Earlier Short Payments

R Jagannathan

Aug 30, 2019.

Snapshot
The RBI is obliged to maintain some predictability in dividend payments, and the short payments in 2016-17 and 2017-18 are what are being compensated in the 2018-19 accounts.


The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to transfer Rs 1.76 lakh crore to the government as dividend for 2018-19 is seen as some kind of special favour done under pressure.

However, a closer look at trends in dividend payments and earnings shows that this level of transfer is not extraordinary.

Let’s first look at dividend payment trends in the last five years. In 2014-15 and 2015-16, the RBI paid Rs 65,896 crore and Rs 65,876 crore as dividends to the government – a total of Rs 131,772 crore for these two years. But in the next two years, dividends were cut back dramatically to Rs 30,659 crore and Rs 50,000 crore, before being raised to Rs 175,987 crore in 2018-19. (see table)


This cut-back in the previous two years was attributed to the higher costs incurred by the RBI in handling demonetisation (note-printing, etc) in 2016-17 and beyond.


But if you compare dividend payouts in 2014-15 and 2015-16 and the next two years, the short payments to government work out to Rs 51,113 crore, assuming the previous level of payouts had to be maintained.

This short-payment is roughly the same as the Rs 52,637 crore paid in 2018-19 by bringing down reserves, especially contingency fund reserves, which came down from Rs 2.23 lakh crore in 2017-18 to Rs 1.96 lakh crore in 2018-19.

The total payout for 2018-19 of Rs 1.76 lakh crore includes the year’s surplus of Rs 1.23 lakh crore, plus the reduction in the contingency fund reserves of over Rs 52,000 crore – which was written back into the profit and loss account as “other income”, from provisions no longer required.

The vast bulk of income surplus – the Rs 123,414 crore – came from a huge expansion in the bank’s balance-sheet from Rs 36.17 lakh crore to Rs 41.02 lakh crore, and consequent increase in interest earnings. Interest earnings soared by 44 per cent from Rs 73,871 crore to Rs 106,832 crore in 2018-19.

In short, the overall transfer of Rs 1.76 lakh crore was largely the result of a massive expansion in interest income and compensation for the short payments in 2016-17 and 2017-18.


There was actually no special favour shown to the government. Clearly, the culprit was the RBI board under Urjit Patel, which arbitrarily reduced dividends in the two years preceding 2018-19, when it could have maintained payments by digging into reserves at that time.

There was no need to penalise the government just because the cost of handling demonetisation was high. The RBI is obliged to maintain some predictability in dividend payments, and the short payments in 2016-17 and 2017-18 are what are being compensated in the 2018-19 accounts.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 01 Sep 2019 11:41

Supratik wrote:Obviously something happened between July 2018 and Aug 2019 so that suddenly 4.1 million became 1.9 million and now we are told even less. We have to find out what happened.

What if people were allowed to leave Assam state and move to other parts of India? West Bengal would be only too eager to help these chaps, especially if they are from a minority community.


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