2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Jun 2019 21:21

1. Q is how many who voted for BJP/Modi have bought into the "core issues" rather than its developmental agenda?
2. Q also if in the process of executing the "core issues" the BJP failed on the development agenda lost that vote and the government, what would happen to the "core agenda"?

As @KaranM has pointed out above, a poor hindu worried about two square meals a day one doesn't have much sympathy/Patience time for the "core issues". You take steps that disrupts their "core issue" of "roti/kapda/makan" he/she is likely to take the next exit and leave you stranded and you "core issue" as well.

As @KLNM has pointed out, there is no easy, visible or immediate solution. So what does a thinking administrator do?

1. Focus on the poor Yindu's "core issue" of "roti/kapda/makan" + health & education. Remove one venerability of the Yindu society as pointed out by @Karan. That in itself will be a huge service to the community.
2. Cement this transactional relationship to a more permanent one which will allow you flexibility to implement "some" of you "core issues" down the line.
3. At the very least, it will allow you to occupy the crease and block any further machination against Yindus.
4. The mere occupation of the central space by the BJP has shifted the politics rightwards and with few such terms the "Right" sensibilities will seep into and become embedded within the psyche of the Yindu masses. That by itself is a yuuuuuuuuuge win!
5. Everyone know that the problem has no easy solution as pointed out by @KLNM. It allows "bright" minds time to seek solutions to what appears to be an almost intractable issue.
6. While the "Right" forces are in pole position many small but significant steps/changes, most of which will be below the radar, will continue to be made. Don't underestimate their importance. Better to have 100 such successful changes than a ONE big bang glorious fizzle.
7. Once a majority of the mango Yindu have been co-opted on the "core issue" it will be easier to implement them even in the face of a little uncertainty.
8. With improving internal situation and changed external environment it is possible to imagine a future where a more "bold" push on the "core issues" might be feasible.

BTW, what did that Mudi mean when he added ".. saab ka vishwash" hanji? Who's vishwask is he seeking? It may not be the default answer that immediately comes to mind!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 18 Jun 2019 21:24

Karan M wrote:What I am also seeing is Modi 's going to temples, and similar stuff may be called election gimmickry by Ravinar and others, but it is also reclaiming the public space which the Left had forced Hinduism out of. Hindus are now getting used to saffron robes in Parliament, decision making etc. A sea change in attitude flows from that. Cursing Modi 24/7 ignores his tangible victories on behalf of all of us in reclaiming the Indian cultural space from the Hinduphobes.

One good rule in a confusing war is to look for the thing that makes the enemy have the worst freakout and doing that very thing.

I think of all these right wing noisemakers as cricket fans, who, not having played even galli cricket, are ready to yell and scream at Tendulkar, not realizing that massive talent as well as years of dedication and hard work separate them from Tendulkar.

Modi is obviously a highly gifted man, and he literally spent thousands of hours studying the problem of India with singular focus.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 18 Jun 2019 21:28

Karan M wrote:Righto KLNM.

Preaching culture war, danger of caste divisions, NYT propaganda, EJ hinduphobia is pointless to people struggling for 2 meals a day, living in shanties, shitting in the streets. If Modi gives them dignity, decent economic prospects/welfare net and we fix basics (housing, power, roads, electricity, sanitation, water, forestation), automatically standard of living will rise and EJs/mullahs/caste dividers will be checkmated. People will rise on their own back to where they were.


Aren't these people the first casualties in any 'direct action day' ? I don't quite see how if these very people live in a house and have toilets will save them during 'direct action day'. As an analogy, a group of illegal BDs laid siege to a huge affluent township in Noida recently. People need to look up moplah riots, direct action day etc, to refresh memories, I am not even going back to timur and babur times. Economic growth is required, it's no brainer, but will that alone suffice?
I do agree that EJ influence will come down by certain degree(by how much only time will tell), with rising awareness, commie brainwashing as well will come down. But what about the first point? BTW, most of city people are half way there compared to people in Sweden, France and UK in terms of putting religion/culture in distant back seat.
We all need to be hopeful certainly, hopeful that all reach outs (15,000 crores in last 5 years for ministry of minorities), scholarships etc etc will hopefully change their attitude, make them more pliant, make them lose their expansionist jihadi mindset etc. But what if those reaching outs don't work? What's that saying, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I hope people in power are doing both.

Watch this video, it's the man himself. Hope he still remembers his own point.


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 18 Jun 2019 21:31

chetak wrote:just listen to this insufferable and self opinionated ass, colonial virus infected, conceited, cocksure and arrogant familia house ****


Ayyo saar mind your BP, none of us is getting younger.

Might I gently suggest refraining from the n-word, it is jarring and insulting to people who could be our allies, and besides, don't we have enough culturally appropriate gaalis of our own?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Jun 2019 21:31

Karan M wrote:What I am also seeing is Modi 's going to temples, and similar stuff may be called election gimmickry by Ravinar and others, but it is also reclaiming the public space which the Left had forced Hinduism out of. Hindus are now getting used to saffron robes in Parliament, decision making etc. A sea change in attitude flows from that. Cursing Modi 24/7 ignores his tangible victories on behalf of all of us in reclaiming the Indian cultural space from the Hinduphobes.

Exactly! Most don't understand the importance ... not even folks who the message is aimed at and who are impacted by it!

Just imagine what he did when he took the Japanese PM for Ganga Aarti. People are free to think of that as a gimmick but it is not. It was a message to the simple Yindu villager that he is one of them from the same tradition who not only respects and honors their sentiment but also takes pride in them. It was also a message to the yuppie Yindu, who has been made to feel guilty about his own heritage, that there is nothing to be ashamed of but everything to be proud of. He is reclaiming pride in our own heritage and it is having its impact.

Subliminal messaging at its best. Modi is way way beyond any current politician/strategist.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 18 Jun 2019 21:51

I think we know as much as we can know about The Modi Way at this point.

It is time for us (IMHO of course) to address this thousand-pound gorilla of an issue in our own right and see if that will result in something that can support and complement Modi's work.

I took the time to re-watch Akbaruddin Owaisi's infamous Nirmal Speech of 2012. To me, it is very rich in content, spelling out the quality and nature of the problem. It is long (75 min or so) and heavy on the Urdu, but it could be a starting point for tackling the issue constructively.

Akbaruddin Owaisi, Nirmal, 2012

As I said before, none of us is getting younger, so mind the BP. Definitely NSFW, and I recommend having a nice meal, a drink or your favorite dog or cat by your side, and generally being in a zen state while watching it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 18 Jun 2019 22:01

Karthik S wrote:
Karan M wrote:Righto KLNM.

Preaching culture war, danger of caste divisions, NYT propaganda, EJ hinduphobia is pointless to people struggling for 2 meals a day, living in shanties, shitting in the streets. If Modi gives them dignity, decent economic prospects/welfare net and we fix basics (housing, power, roads, electricity, sanitation, water, forestation), automatically standard of living will rise and EJs/mullahs/caste dividers will be checkmated. People will rise on their own back to where they were.


Aren't these people the first casualties in any 'direct action day' ? I don't quite see how if these very people live in a house and have toilets will save them during 'direct action day'. As an analogy, a group of illegal BDs laid siege to a huge affluent township in Noida recently. People need to look up moplah riots, direct action day etc, to refresh memories, I am not even going back to timur and babur times. Economic growth is required, it's no brainer, but will that alone suffice?


When you control the state, and the people start accepting you as the default party of governance, do you think that Direct Action Day, Moplah riots can occur easily? No.
Violence (i.e. occasional street thuggery) may still occur at a lower level, but overall, the power shifts to the other side. Much like Yogi's encounter politics has taken out many of the bahubalis who were tacitly supporting the other side.
What remains now are the mob violence, street thuggery at local level. That too will be gradually addressed by adding more cops, stricter powers etc. Gradually. No massive beat up, riots to get the NYT, Guardian, LeLi brigade alert and ready to spin stories of Genocidal Hindus etc.

I see BJP/RSS's strategy as simple, as much as some may dislike it. They let the low level discontent simmer, and not engage in violence/retaliation till people themselves are shocked out of stupor and act via the legal method, i.e vote the BJP in. Otherwise, what we have seen is average Hindus are often very selfish and fickle. They run to BJP/RSS/VHP etc when in trouble. Then vote for the very political parties and groups that decimate the above Hindu orgs.

Once that realization sets in the people, and they start becoming the default supporters of the BJP/RSS combine, the unified H bloc appears, the state is then in the hands of the BJP for an extended period of time, you will see things change.

Remember, with the services who are arguably at ~50-60% of their ideal state, Modi went and implemented a complete change in India's deterrence positioning vis a vis Pakistan for high value strikes. There have been no mass terror events in India either past 5 years. This is the "public" information that we have. How much is going behind the scenes to enable all this?

In this term, I expect nat sec and security measures against LeLi gang, cultural issues to ramp up. But not to the point there are riots, and massive civil war type incidents. But the rubicon will keep getting shifted forwards.

The BJP/RSS are not going to turn the balance of power the other way either that Hindu mobs can attack Muslims either. They will just ensure that the current bias in the administration disappears and overall law & order gradually comes back. If extremists can't take this and continue attacking Hindus en masse, they are setting themselves up for a denouement.

I do agree that EJ influence will come down by certain degree(by how much only time will tell), with rising awareness, commie brainwashing as well will come down. But what about the first point? BTW, most of city people are half way there compared to people in Sweden, France and UK in terms of putting religion/culture in distant back seat.


About EJ influence it will most certainly come down. FCRA is reducing the quantum of influx etc or making it harder to operate, whereas people will be harder to buy off.
I disagree about your interpretation of the entire situation as it stands in the urban areas as well. Modi's 303 clearly indicates his overwhelming support even in middle/better off urban areas, where people clearly did not vote for Modi on development alone (after all, the real beneficiaries of the welfare state were the poor). Clearly, they voted for nationalism, and cultural issues etc as well. Most of BJP's supporters on social media are unpaid, self organized. So, clearly many were chafing at the constant attacks on their religion/culture and are fighting the LeLi gang.
If violence occurs due to jihadis or LeLi sponsored gangs, the more outrage there will be in the urban elite to have the GOI act. This again, is a good thing. It makes people realize what they want and ask for it, rather than have somebody undertake a thankless task on their behalf and reward the helpers by promptly attacking them having fallen for LeLi agit prop/propaganda.

We all need to be hopeful certainly, hopeful that all reach outs (15,000 crores in last 5 years for ministry of minorities), scholarships etc etc will hopefully change their attitude, make them more pliant, make them lose their expansionist jihadi mindset etc. But what if those reaching outs don't work? What's that saying, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I hope people in power are doing both.
Watch this video, it's the man himself. Hope he still remembers his own point.


All I can say is the manner in which they have run things till now, they certainly aren't novices in terms of understanding what needs to be done. They are playing a long game from what I can discern. More singles and doubles than quickfire fours and sixes.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 18 Jun 2019 22:02

Karthik S wrote:
Karan M wrote:Righto KLNM.

Preaching culture war, danger of caste divisions, NYT propaganda, EJ hinduphobia is pointless to people struggling for 2 meals a day, living in shanties, shitting in the streets. If Modi gives them dignity, decent economic prospects/welfare net and we fix basics (housing, power, roads, electricity, sanitation, water, forestation), automatically standard of living will rise and EJs/mullahs/caste dividers will be checkmated. People will rise on their own back to where they were.


Aren't these people the first casualties in any 'direct action day' ? I don't quite see how if these very people live in a house and have toilets will save them during 'direct action day'. As an analogy, a group of illegal BDs laid siege to a huge affluent township in Noida recently. People need to look up moplah riots, direct action day etc, to refresh memories, I am not even going back to timur and babur times. Economic growth is required, it's no brainer, but will that alone suffice?
I do agree that EJ influence will come down by certain degree(by how much only time will tell), with rising awareness, commie brainwashing as well will come down. But what about the first point? BTW, most of city people are half way there compared to people in Sweden, France and UK in terms of putting religion/culture in distant back seat.
We all need to be hopeful certainly, hopeful that all reach outs (15,000 crores in last 5 years for ministry of minorities), scholarships etc etc will hopefully change their attitude, make them more pliant, make them lose their expansionist jihadi mindset etc. But what if those reaching outs don't work? What's that saying, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I hope people in power are doing both.

Watch this video, it's the man himself. Hope he still remembers his own point.



If another direct day action is to happen, any implementation of core agenda (what ever it is) now as opposed to waiting for another 10 years will not change it. But the reference to direct action day is itself wrong. The British are not in power now.

In what way will 15000 cr to minorities over 5 years will hard Hindus? It's a pittance. This is a drama that some people do every year after any allocation to the minorities. Direct day action happened because of muslim majority. The minority scholarships are intended to counter exactly that to some extent. Isn't Modi doing what exactly you want?

Let me take your own example. What will constructing a Ram temple do now if another direct day action is to happen? Will Ram temple save you during a direct action day? There is a time and place for everything. You should fight a battle you can win. Until then prepare the heck out of yourself for it.

Implementing the core agenda now will not prevent another direct action day. The push for core agenda must come from all Hindus, only then will it be successful. What Modi is doing now will unite Hindus in support of the core agenda.

The core is crying over a filthy 3,000 cr/year rupees with an economy of 3 trillion dollars. And even that money is being spent on what the core actually wan'ts. It's just they are too impatient to realize it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 18 Jun 2019 22:09

pankajs wrote:
Karan M wrote:What I am also seeing is Modi 's going to temples, and similar stuff may be called election gimmickry by Ravinar and others, but it is also reclaiming the public space which the Left had forced Hinduism out of. Hindus are now getting used to saffron robes in Parliament, decision making etc. A sea change in attitude flows from that. Cursing Modi 24/7 ignores his tangible victories on behalf of all of us in reclaiming the Indian cultural space from the Hinduphobes.

Exactly! Most don't understand the importance ... not even folks who the message is aimed at and who are impacted by it!

Just imagine what he did when he took the Japanese PM for Ganga Aarti. People are free to think of that as a gimmick but it is not. It was a message to the simple Yindu villager that he is one of them from the same tradition who not only respects and honors their sentiment but also takes pride in them. It was also a message to the yuppie Yindu, who has been made to feel guilty about his own heritage, that there is nothing to be ashamed of but everything to be proud of. He is reclaiming pride in our own heritage and it is having its impact.

Subliminal messaging at its best. Modi is way way beyond any current politician/strategist.


Modi plays the psy-war game like a consummate professional.

I see Modi Shah as Good cop - Bad Cop in terms of their messaging and overall dynamics right now, and for all we know even that could be a manufactured image being pushed out for obvious reasons.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 18 Jun 2019 22:16

I would point out one more thing. When Modi undertook his mass welfare push, people mocked him and said "he's naive, people will take the goodies and vote on caste basis". They didn't. They took his work for them, evinced faith and voted for the man who had understood their pain, and did what he could on their behalf.

Today, he is taking a few ladles from the bucket of kheer, and giving it to the minorities. Will they remain untouched, and ehsaan-faramosh? Perhaps. But if they don't and shift towards supporting the BJP-RSS, a huge crack would have been undertaken in the BIF matrix without resorting to state power, violence, riots or public demonstration of might makes right. Just a thought.

Perhaps we will end up seeing the day that the RSS guys really wanted. Where Indian Muslims are more and more Arif Mohd Khans, Kalams, Fatah as versus the Owaisis, Abdullahs or the Rana Ayyubs. If that is not victory for India/Indians, I don't know what is.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Jun 2019 22:25

I have another thought on the "minority appeasement" politics of BJP.

There are 2 issue that needs reform in the minority community but I am not going to list them out. One is pretty intractable given our current understanding while the 2nd can be tackled as evidenced in Bangladesh and Turkey (from memory).

I am willing to spend money on "education" of the minorities where I "believe" 50% of the money will be well spent even if it does not fetch BJP ONE single extra vote.

I would urge the Mudi led GOI to spend sufficient money to educate the minorities while not neglecting the weaker sections of the majority community.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 18 Jun 2019 22:50

KLNMurthy wrote:
chetak wrote:just listen to this insufferable and self opinionated ass, colonial virus infected, conceited, cocksure and arrogant familia house ****


Ayyo saar mind your BP, none of us is getting younger.

Might I gently suggest refraining from the n-word, it is jarring and insulting to people who could be our allies, and besides, don't we have enough culturally appropriate gaalis of our own?


there are a lot more of his videos out there.

I never imagined that there would be so much venom from such people against Modi.

He is a media owner and has managed to garner a lot of BIF funding and investment in his enterprises.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Skanda » 18 Jun 2019 23:22



So here is Shabana Ashmi, the voice against "Modi oppression of Muslims". 5 minutes into her replies, you pretty much realize that she is against Modi because she has always been against Modi, to a point, where her defiance of Modi itself has come to identify her than anything else. Everyone around her have begun to see the light that taking an extreme position against Modi has no tangible rewards anymore, especially, since Muslims can no longer dictate the outcome of elections.

Modi offering Muslims a long rope is a good step in order to further isolate folks like her. Sensible muslims may use this long rope to pull themselves up from a ditch that these esteemed fighters have dug them in. The other alternate is being the muslim that got left behind where some of your compatriots moved out.

Overall, I think, Modi (and Shah) are very patient chess players waiting for the opponent to make mistakes. They followed a similar strategy to tame the lutyens media as well. In Term 1, they offered them a peace wreath, "lets bury the hatchet and move on". The media missed the chance and now in Term 2, they have been so ignored from everything, that you can often hear the wails these days.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Jun 2019 23:53

What a change! Such article rarely got published in the mainstream media.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis ... IvxkM.html
Minority-focused secularism will not work
The secular, Left-liberal lobby accuses the BJP of “majoritarianism” but democracy is based on “majoritarianism”, in the sense that whoever gets a majority, even a relative one, in an election, rules. Wasn’t the decision of former Prime Minister of Britain, David Cameron, to hold the Brexit referendum a case of “majoritarianism”? A party that wins the elections has to implement its agenda. Even now the Left-liberal forces want the government to follow their agenda to justify its majority.

The Left-liberal lobby has transplanted western ideas of “secularism” and “nationalism” to a politically distorting effect in India. Secularism in the West is rooted in the struggle between the State and the Church over temporal power. Secularism in this sense has no indigenous roots in India where the concept has got associated with the issue of communalism, non-interference in Muslim personal law, granting of special privileges for Muslim (and Christian) institutions, suppressing politically the identity of India as a Hindu-majority country and Hindu-baiting by some “secular fundamentalists”.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Jun 2019 00:17

Skanda wrote:

So here is Shabana Ashmi, the voice against "Modi oppression of Muslims". 5 minutes into her replies, you pretty much realize that she is against Modi because she has always been against Modi, to a point, where her defiance of Modi itself has come to identify her than anything else. Everyone around her have begun to see the light that taking an extreme position against Modi has no tangible rewards anymore, especially, since Muslims can no longer dictate the outcome of elections.

Modi offering Muslims a long rope is a good step in order to further isolate folks like her. Sensible muslims may use this long rope to pull themselves up from a ditch that these esteemed fighters have dug them in. The other alternate is being the muslim that got left behind where some of your compatriots moved out.

Overall, I think, Modi (and Shah) are very patient chess players waiting for the opponent to make mistakes. They followed a similar strategy to tame the lutyens media as well. In Term 1, they offered them a peace wreath, "lets bury the hatchet and move on". The media missed the chance and now in Term 2, they have been so ignored from everything, that you can often hear the wails these days.



confidence building measures, wow.

they haven't moved on from the appeasement meme and now they want it institutionalized by Modi despite not being discriminated during the Modi -1 govt.

why not the very same confidence building measures for everyone.

they attacking others and others attacking them has been going on for well over a 1000 years but now they feel that they are besieged because politically they have not been able to arm twist any political party to cater to them exclusively and disproportionately to the detriment of the other meaning the majority.

this is just a ploy to create more trouble in the name of so called inclusiveness.

Why do they dress so differently and stay aloof from the larger society if all they wanted was to be included.

Do special schools, dresses, customs and special food define them or does being Indian define them while still maintaining their identity.

Have you ever seen a parsi being so vocal about being included and yet the parsis are an integral part of the very fibre of India like these guys will never ever be.

If the deep rooted ideology says ghazwa e Hind then, inclusiveness is not a part of the vocabulary.
Last edited by chetak on 19 Jun 2019 00:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 19 Jun 2019 00:24

Arguably, neither 'core issues' nor the previous story of GDP growth would have won 2014 like it did. Let me explain why:

Even as late as in 2014, our socio-economic reality would have rated between poor and dire. After 66 years of independence, and almost 25 years of liberalization, that was the situation. Our economic growth was top down. That's not to say it was 'wrong'. It was just lacking in many areas. Some efforts are great when pushed top down, e.g. polio eradication. But other things were just poor, considering the amount of time we had.

Example: banking inclusion. IG nationalized banks in order to foster it, back in 1971. As of 2014, about 40% had access to the formal banking system, up to >90% now. PMJDY should have happened in 1971, not in 2014.

Example: rural road construction. There wasn't a push for this until 2000, when PMGSY was launched. It was substantially completed as of 2019, due to a significant push between 2014 and present. It's startling that there was no national push to connect every village until this century.

Example: Sanitation coverage. I'll just offer a simple graph to do the talking. And another. and another. The impact of 10 years of Garibi hatao-ing is... 1% coverage. This is what we looked like as late as 2015 on the sanitation front - as good as sub-Saharan Africa after 25 years of liberalization and GDP growth. In 5 years since then we've gone from dark orange to dark green.

Example: access to electricity. See Saubhagya scheme.

Arguably, Modi-1 didn't do anything amazing on the economic growth front. Growth itself was good, but not greatly so. Sure, there are plenty of valid reasons, but my point is not one of stating failure. Rather, Modi-1 focused on something no Indian government previously did to this extent - it focused on two things:
* basic public goods and services: sanitation, electricity, cooking fuel, roads, general basic insurance and banking
* EFFICIENT delivery of the above.

On BRF we just don't grasp how bad India's rural life was, until recently. Even quarter of a century of high GDP growth afforded only incremental improvement there. SE Asia and China fixed the bottom of their pyramids quite early - the former in the 1960s/70s (Seoul used to look like Dharavi in the 1960s) and the latter in the 1980s/1990s. We did, in comparative terms, pretty much nothing.

Between 2014 and 2019, we didn't accomplish a lot in GDP terms, compared to some random comparison to China's high growth phase. But that's because China's turbocharged growth phase began in the late 1990s once their rural poverty dropped like a stone. It was in ~1998 that India became the country with the most desperately poor people - a tag China held continuously for decades before that.

It is not economic growth or core issues that won 2019. Economic growth was good, but not 303/543 good. It was the fact that the bottom of the pyramid has a vastly better life today than they did 5 years ago that made all the difference.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2019 00:27

First CBM will be to break up Pakistan.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 19 Jun 2019 00:40

^^^ What we have to do separately from the GOI is the building up of soft power.

In particular, if you are eminent/successful in whatever your field is, then attribute at least some of it to Indian civilizational values whenever you talk about it. Because soft power accumulates from these little drops of water into a powerful force.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Jun 2019 00:41

ramana wrote:First CBM will be to break up Pakistan.


we don't like your flag, your anthem or your national song because our book does not permit it. Fine and OK.

then why do you like our money so much.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2019 00:47

When NaMo got elected in 2014 there were 3 villages with broadband. Three villages!

By May 2019 there were 100,000 villages with broad band and all voted for BJP. That's vikas for you .
In 224 seats of the 303 won by BJP the vote-share was over 50%. This means no amount of Maha/Chota gath/thug bandan will work.


Lets talk about Congress.

Congress won more than one seat from just three states: Punjab, Kerala and TN.
In Kerala they won because the people wanted to vote against LDF due to Sabarimala.
In Punjab it was the grace of Captain Amarinder Singh who kept the Gandhis out of Punjab and marginalized their minion Sidhu.
In TN the win was due to the mercy of Stalin who allowed them into an alliance thinking they would let hem loot in future and due to Motabhai inducements.
In 17 seats they did not get any seats. The rest they won only one seat in each state.
Yet their spin machine says RaGa was fooled by wrong data app or Priyanka thinks her staff did not work hard.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 19 Jun 2019 00:59

Suraj said;

On BRF we just don't grasp how bad India's rural life was, until recently.


I don't think we still realize it. Despite the massive NDA win in 2014, BRF was and is a secular supporting platform. Evidence is the suppression of national discourse under no politics rubric. That onl helped Congress narrative.

Look at the participation in these threads and even more by moderators and admins.

I hope we never go back to the bad old days.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Skanda » 19 Jun 2019 02:16

chetak wrote:confidence building measures, wow.

they haven't moved on from the appeasement meme and now they want it institutionalized by Modi despite not being discriminated during the Modi -1 govt.

Whats also interesting is how the debate has been framed. "Muslims seek CBMs from Modi". The veto power that muslims once had to dictate political parties is fast slipping underneath them with Modi at the healm and they are demanding CBMs. Its the perennial "I am privileged minority" mode that either Barkha or Muslims cant seem to get out of.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 19 Jun 2019 03:01

ramana wrote:I don't think we still realize it. Despite the massive NDA win in 2014, BRF was and is a secular supporting platform. Evidence is the suppression of national discourse under no politics rubric. That onl helped Congress narrative.

Indeed. It is incredible that we held together as a country for so long considering just how bad and out of sync things were - we sent a probe to Mars before we managed to get half the population access to sanitation.

One would think that a country would have reasonable at least lower middle class standard of living for all after 25 years of 6% growth rate. After all, translate that to nominal growth of ~11%, and CAGR after 25 year is an economy 13x larger. That should mean we've fixed these basics. But no, the reality is that we were far from that in 2014 - that year, about 60% of rural India lived a life as bad or worse than sub-Saharan Africa.

This is not about growth. This is not about a 'narrative', or about an 'idea of India'.

It is about the delivery of basic public goods and services, in other words, an effective system of socio-economic governance. That extends all the way down to how our temples and temple towns - the so called core issues - look. For pretty much ever, I looked at Varanasi or Mathura or Haridwar and cringed a little - they're variously tired, crowded, dingy or outright filthy. So was the Ganga. They don't have to be some blinged out Vegas style place, but cleanliness, modern amenities and just a good standard of living for the faithful, is a requirement. Even belief cannot blind a person to that reality - a culture so beaten down by poverty and lack of ground level development that it's allowed itself to be literally dirtied and enabled itself to be easily manipulated along 'caste' lines, and taken apart by outside predators.

The last administration did something that exceeded the efforts of every previous administration combined, in percentage terms, in multiple barometers of socio-economic development. Pretty much every last village now has sanitation, roads and electricity, and pretty much every family has a bank account, nearly all have access to cooking gas. The next goal is universal water access, and doubling farm income by 2024.

In 2019, India basically does not register in the news anymore when it comes to extreme poverty. Remember the stories of how India had more poor than sub-Saharan Africa, 5-10 years ago ? That was true. It no longer is. As with China's graph, India's extreme poverty graph is doing a dramatic nosedive:
India’s success. The soon-to-be-largest country in the world has been reducing extreme poverty fast and the world may have underestimated India’s achievements. India’s last household survey of 2017/18 (to be released in 2019) captures household consumption more comprehensively—it will include an adjustment for owner-occupied housing and measure other items in accordance with common international practices. World Data Lab anticipates the effects of these methodological adjustments will result in a level of extreme poverty in India today of 50 million people, which will come down to 40 million (a poverty rate of below 3 percent) by end 2019.


It's a miracle we grew so fast despite having a 25-30% poverty rate in the 2000s. It's like trying to drive a Maruti 800 at 150km/h on the autobahn. The economy didn't have the human capital and potential productivity gains to sustain that - there were too many people just surviving one day at a time, not generating growth - and UPA could not balance growth and dole. Now, in 2019, we do actually have a socio-economic situation mirroring China in the late 1990s - a rising per capita income, standard of living, near universal rural basic infrastructure, and the potential to generate extremely fast growth from that.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 19 Jun 2019 03:34

Aren't these people the first casualties in any 'direct action day' ? I don't quite see how if these very people live in a house and have toilets will save them during 'direct action day'.

Please guys "direct action day" is a symptom and not the real driver.

Direct action was a culmination of 1000 years of Jiziya so basic roti kapda makan stuff... thats the real driver. Without it DAD would never happen.

Also what good is fighting for asymbolic victories when you cannot give kashmiri pandits back their land.
Symbolic("Core"?) issues do hold value but someone has to make sure that theres movement on the issues that make the real difference.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 19 Jun 2019 03:57

The EJ angle into mass conversions will be addressed by the change in socio-economic living conditions as Suraj has so clearly demonstrated.
The presence of an assertive, non Hinduphobic elite, middle class driving the leadership agenda may end up allowing the Indian state to deal with the threat posed by Islamist extremism as well.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 19 Jun 2019 06:18

India Speaks Daily on PTI: https://youtu.be/cOGm6Stu9zc

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 19 Jun 2019 10:01

A tactically brilliant move from Premachandran MP of RSP (Revolutionary Socialist Party; a party which has presence only in few districts in the small state of KL). He moves the first private bill in the first session of the new Lok Sabha.
Sabarimala: Premachandran to move private bill to stop women

I would consider this as a brilliant move because;
1. He has taken the initiative to bring back the issue of Sabari Mala as soon as Lok Sabha met.
2. The bill has been listed to be put up in Lok Sabha, which means there is merit in the bill.
3. The BJP and Congress will now have to spell out their stance clearly on the issue. Though I have a feeling that BJP will chicken out saying "the matter is sub-judice and let us wait for Hon. SC courts to dispose of the review petitions".
4. The commies of Kerala who took a beating in Lok Sabha elections would be able to use any inaction/weaseling out of the BJP in the next round of state elections.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Jun 2019 11:01

Karan M wrote:The EJ angle into mass conversions will be addressed by the change in socio-economic living conditions as Suraj has so clearly demonstrated.
The presence of an assertive, non Hinduphobic elite, middle class driving the leadership agenda may end up allowing the Indian state to deal with the threat posed by Islamist extremism as well.


do we really have so much time to wait for things to play out.

the next GE will be risky because the opposition would have got their act together in a do or die effort because Modi has become an existential threat for them.

Its time to chop off the opposition at the knees and decimate them politically and ideologically well before the inevitable consolidation efforts begin and gathers its own momentum. The consolidation itself may not amount to very much but why let it even build at all.

for the BIF, India conversions is their very lifeblood, in the medium term, to sustain their desert ideology and recover from the loss of faith among the whites and their own venomous media assets are gathering steam again. just look at tiranga TV, its a clone of runditv and just as poisonous with the very same subset of anchors back in the saddle and in action.

the new crop of media personalities in almost every channel are mostly from the minorities and this minority thrust is pointing to the direction which they have decided to take to control, shape and set the narrative, going forward.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prasad » 19 Jun 2019 11:25

Karan M wrote:The EJ angle into mass conversions will be addressed by the change in socio-economic living conditions as Suraj has so clearly demonstrated.
The presence of an assertive, non Hinduphobic elite, middle class driving the leadership agenda may end up allowing the Indian state to deal with the threat posed by Islamist extremism as well.

Unfortunately there is such a thing as critical mass. Kanyakumari constituency is a glaring example. NE takeover is too despite BJP coming to power (by pandering to the church there too). Same with Goa where despite all the hindutva talk, bjp genuflects in front of the church on certain issues which led to splintering of the party. Let us not kid ourselves that EJs will sit quietly while prosperity becomes widespread. There is already pushback. And there is no guarantee that prosperity will imply lack of brainwashing. It doesn't take much to wipe out whats existing to be replaced by something else entirely despite prosperity. Modern-day europe is another glaring example.

One without the other is useless we all agree. Waiting for godot is a fool's errand.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Jun 2019 12:17

banrjeer wrote:Aren't these people the first casualties in any 'direct action day' ? I don't quite see how if these very people live in a house and have toilets will save them during 'direct action day'.

Please guys "direct action day" is a symptom and not the real driver.

Direct action was a culmination of 1000 years of Jiziya so basic roti kapda makan stuff... thats the real driver. Without it DAD would never happen.

Also what good is fighting for asymbolic victories when you cannot give kashmiri pandits back their land.
Symbolic("Core"?) issues do hold value but someone has to make sure that theres movement on the issues that make the real difference.


after gujarat, any DAD is simply off the table.

that was a watershed moment that drew hard and red lines in the sand.

the consequences are too horendous for adventureous minority gangsters to even contemplate as the ramifications will perforce include financial, social, cultural and security angles that will ostrasize and isolate entire communities.

People have learned how to very effectively deal with DADs and the like.

BTW, one will not like what I say but if the kashmiri pandits themselves will not take the lead in getting their rights back, no one else is going to serve it up to them on a platter.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 19 Jun 2019 12:27

Prasad wrote:Unfortunately there is such a thing as critical mass.

Since we're talking in nukular terms, there is also such a thing as fission, decay and half life.

A bloc created using inducements of money and favors, is one that's very easily plundered as well.

To use another nukular term, the goal is to cap, rollback and eliminate.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Jun 2019 12:37

Suraj wrote:
Prasad wrote:Unfortunately there is such a thing as critical mass.

Since we're talking in nukular terms, there is also such a thing as fission, decay and half life.

A bloc created using inducements of money and favors, is one that's very easily plundered as well.

To use another nukular term, the goal is to cap, rollback and eliminate.


the dagger that has been stuck in deep into the body of the majority and is being twisted all the while to exclude competition is the singular control over education by the minorities.

throw open this field, in its entirety, to the majority with exactly the very same rights and privileges as given to the others and see the upheaval that takes place as newer players shake out the market.

legally cap fees and eliminate under the table corruption that results in a premium being paid for what essentially should be a public service.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 19 Jun 2019 13:10

If you want to run around waving a white flag, that is your prerogative :) Don't get in the way of others, that's all.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Jun 2019 13:22

Suraj wrote:If you want to run around waving a white flag, that is your prerogative :) Don't get in the way of others, that's all.


what white flag

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 19 Jun 2019 14:37

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... AsdYP.html
‘Going through pain everyday’: Kumaraswamy on alliance with Congress
“I promise I will fulfil your expectations. I can’t express pain I am going through everyday. I want to express it with you, but cannot, but I need to solve pain of people of state. I have responsibility of running government smoothly,” Kumaraswamy was quoted as saying by news agency.

Reacting to Kumaraswamy’s comments, senior Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah said there is no threat to the Karnataka government and “they (BJP) are trying desperately but they will not succeed”.

Where is the BJP in Kumaraswamy's statement?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 19 Jun 2019 16:36

Prasad wrote:
Karan M wrote:The EJ angle into mass conversions will be addressed by the change in socio-economic living conditions as Suraj has so clearly demonstrated.
The presence of an assertive, non Hinduphobic elite, middle class driving the leadership agenda may end up allowing the Indian state to deal with the threat posed by Islamist extremism as well.

Unfortunately there is such a thing as critical mass. Kanyakumari constituency is a glaring example. NE takeover is too despite BJP coming to power (by pandering to the church there too). Same with Goa where despite all the hindutva talk, bjp genuflects in front of the church on certain issues which led to splintering of the party. Let us not kid ourselves that EJs will sit quietly while prosperity becomes widespread. There is already pushback. And there is no guarantee that prosperity will imply lack of brainwashing. It doesn't take much to wipe out whats existing to be replaced by something else entirely despite prosperity. Modern-day europe is another glaring example.

One without the other is useless we all agree. Waiting for godot is a fool's errand.


The areas you mention were already "lost" over a century ++ of conversions and violence etc. At best BJP/RSS decisions/inactivity have been a pindrop compared to the larger picture. Yet, they have managed to create a sense of H identity and act as gatekeepers/attempting to stem the tide.

What I am mentioning is not in the same timeframe either, of decades for the BJP efforts to show up. I am speaking of the next decade. A rise in standard of living, economic conditions till 2029, will automatically bring a lot of the EJ activity to a creaking stop in many areas or they will face much much more resistance in terms of conversions/$ which ratio will automatically drop. Consider, with the dire conditions we had till date, people still didn't convert for inducement. It says a lot.

Europe is also not a proper comparison because people there went "secular" as an act of rebellion against an overwhelming and authoritarian Church or were repressed by Communist Govts (with many only now rediscovering religion, but still partially cut off from it). In India, we have not had either condition develop. So the average Hindu is much more likely to be religious, only that society riven by caste & poverty is easier to defeat.

What I am saying is give Modi a decade, and the people's attitude towards their own culture may change as well, making sure whatever work he does is carried on by his successor who will find it hard to reverse it.

Its quite telling that despite 100+ years of British colonialization, 70+ years of Congress-Left rule & mass EJ/Wahhabi activity, a party like the BJP continues to win the majority. Clearly, Indian Hindus are not an easy nut to crack.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 19 Jun 2019 16:37

Suraj wrote:
Prasad wrote:Unfortunately there is such a thing as critical mass.

Since we're talking in nukular terms, there is also such a thing as fission, decay and half life.

A bloc created using inducements of money and favors, is one that's very easily plundered as well.

To use another nukular term, the goal is to cap, rollback and eliminate.


Yes, exactly. We are in the Cap stage with elements of Stage 2. Setting the stage for Parts 2, 3 to pick up and create a new body-politic.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Hari Seldon » 19 Jun 2019 17:05

Chalo, let's hope things pan out well.

Disclaimer - am all out shaashtaang pranaam for Modi ji's awesomely inspiring vikas achievements and the very real impact on ground on desi lives across rural and urban india. Nowhere do I or will I support any suggestion that vikas and 'core' are incompatible, antagonistic or either-or. Period.

That's out of the way. Whew and nice.

Experience makes me sceptical reg ever regaining ppl lost by the 1000s (millions along the southern coast) to churchism back to an Indic POV.

Like someone mentioned on twitter, the abrahamics build, shine and maintain their shrines so well whereas our yindoo temples look drab and tired like sarkari buildings (why, same sarkari influence only!).

A level playing field in edu and shrines and institutions mgmt on par with the abrahamics is not necessarily anti-vikas or has to be done after vikas has been achieved.

Just a humble bumble zimble proposition onlee. Doesn't have to be taken too seriously. Only.

Only.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 19 Jun 2019 20:09

You are right regarding moves that can be taken. I dont understand why Govt is bumbling on RTE, or freeing temples. Some moves on core issues have to be taken. I am not a fan of only focusing on development myself, but given the scale of challenges faced by Modi led GOI have reluctantly agreed to/ understand some aspects of the path taken, given our current situation.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 19 Jun 2019 20:35

How long before any dilution on RTE is spun as anti-poor, anti-OBC, anti-ST/SC? The very base Modi is trying to cultivate.

While in theory RTE needs to go the BJP has to be very careful. Any change has to be thought through and talking points carefully prepared.

Why don't we try to brainstorm the outrage that will follow in the name of the poor and counters.


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