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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 24 Oct 2019 23:24
by vijayk
get better CMs with strong ideological background too.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 24 Oct 2019 23:25
by Mollick.R
From Whatsapp University :D

*HARYANA*
*COMMUNIST PARTY VOTE SHARE.*

CPI - 0.03%
CPIM-0.07%
_____________________________
*Both In Total- 0.10%*
*NOTA - 0.52%*

______________________________________________
*MAHARASTRA*

*COMMUNIST PARTY VOTE SHARE.*

CPI - 0.06%
CPIM-0.37%
_____________________________
*Both In Total- 0.43%*
*NOTA - 1.35%*


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 24 Oct 2019 23:58
by CRamS
In many ways, I am more disappointed at the Maha result no matter what spin ModiJi/Shah/Fadnavis put out on strike rate. Reason being that Maha is a big and strategically important state nationally, and more worryingly, BJP has to depend on those Shiv Sena louts. I can't stand those jokers. They can be constant drag on BJP.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 00:10
by pankajs
RuPay / UPI being rolled out in phases worldwide.

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1187330176679661574
Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

Saudi Arabia is the 3rd country in the gulf to get RuPay card facility after UAE, Bahrain

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 01:12
by UlanBatori
Looks like Haryana is a slap against poor governance. 8 of 10 mantris lost. I assume they deserved it? This may be a sign that the electorate EXPECTS enlightened governance.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 02:43
by V_Raman
Well they better shape up then. Modi can get them only so Far!

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 03:26
by UlanBatori
This is the message I see. 90% of the massive support that the Bee Jay Pee is riding on, is because Modi is an honest and capable leader. The other 10% is because Amit Shah is smart and "pro-active" and no-nonsense. But the vast majority of BeeJayPee mid-level and state level netaship is no different from their con-grej and commie contemporaries. A massive tsunami of "we won't accept this level" has to come up from the aam janata to put the "BJ" back in the BJP. Applies in Karnataka obviously, and now it seems in Haryana as well. How many more states? They need to get waaaaay beyond the Valentine's Day Morality Polis and Cowicide-Lynching mentalities. (heading to cave now b4 the mijjiles come).

If 8 out of 10 MINISTERS lose, that is not because people stayed home out of lack of interest. It is because they CAME OUT to vote. Good riddance.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 03:32
by pankajs
Watch this India Today exit poll analysis on Haryana


Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 04:02
by vijayk
Fadvanis is definitely a great deliverer. What happened there?


iMac_too
@iMac_too
Not ONE Marathi TV channel or newspaper is neutral forget pro-BJP. Merciless bashing 24*7. It's a miracle BJP pulled it off


During state elections a lot factors come in including caste/local issues. You have to deliver but also need to be locally cognizant of the regional feelings. The scum media has learned for 70 years how to screw Hindus by putting one against another and help Islamists/Mercenary missionaries and Italians

iMac_too
@iMac_too
Finally. Monkey of '99 is off the back. Two consecutive saffron terms will permanently change the dynamics on ground. If you ask me, it's stupendous achievement to retain power in Maharashtra. Many people don't have idea how difficult a task it was

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 06:16
by UlanBatori
So BJP is still by far the biggest party in Haryana. With incumbency in Dilli how tough can it be to buy 6 seat-winners from the 18 "other parties"? A bridge here, a road there, funds for 100,000 pakistans?

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 09:52
by Prem Kumar
Frankly, the average Indian, at least for State elections, gives more weightage to caste, freebies, reservations etc. Not governance.

Haryana: it was about Jats, their agitation, Khattar not being "one of them"
Fadnavis: stellar governance. No comparison with the NCP/Congress looters & losers. Still couldn't sweep

The most important lesson BJP must learn, IMHO, is that they must wipe out all traces of Congress in any part of India where BJP is in power for the next 5 years. Use saam, dhaan, bhed & dhand techniques. The Congress snake must be eradicated & never allowed to rear its head. Opposition must be in disarray. The douches who want a "strong opposition" sat on their musharrafs when a single party looted India for 65 years with "no opposition".

This is where Khattar/Shah/Modi 2.0, hopefully will not repeat the mistakes of the previous term. Hooda & Vadra must have been in prison by now! Already, we can see that Congress was lacklustre in election preparation because the barmaid was busy paying panic-visits to DK Shivakumar & Chidambaram.

Keep the termite queen & her hired-goons on the defensive, get them to backstab each other & let them wake in cold sweat each day. In the meanwhile, decimate/demoralize their party workers & steal their good leaders in each State.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:07
by Santosh
At the rural level, people still stick to their jatis. More so in Haryana where Jats seem to have voted for Hooda or Chautala. Even in MH, Marathas have stuck with NCP. The narrative at Lok Sabha elections has chnaged to look above caste equations and vote for country. Not so much at state level. I think BJP would have been better off going alone in MH. Fadnavis may not be as nationalist or Hindutvavadi like Shah or Yogi but he has delivered way beyond expectation on infrastructure and development. Sena just capatalized on BJPs image. But I get an impression that their core base is eroding. If Bjp-Sena core base has to choose between the two, Sena would fare very badly.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:12
by vish_mulay
My take on MH elections. First the major difference from 2014 was that BJP fought only on 143+20 allies seats. Many seats which were given because of pre poll alliance to SS, did not fare well. Mostly because people who would have voted for bjp, did not transfer their votes to ss. It happened in north MH where ncp made good gain. People do not understand how strong congress and ncp had hold at the local levels so much so that this is the first non congress govt to come back to power. Old fox had to run from pillar to post, just to retain his % vote share. What a fall from king maker for 35 yrs to a sorry old man without legacy. He threw everything including cast wars, Maratha reservation and farmer agitations towards the Cm who was not even mla before becoming CM. The small sanghi boy ate whole Congress patronage system and congress and ncp combined are less than bjp tally. Add on 16 independent candidates were bjp candidates who were ignored. Even before results came out, they had supported Fadnavis. Rest all is maya! Old fox is betting ss with CMship. I wish they take the bet. In 2 yrs there will be another election and SS will be wiped out good from MH scene.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:24
by Karthik S
Santosh wrote:At the rural level, people still stick to their jatis. More so in Haryana where Jats seem to have voted for Hooda or Chautala. Even in MH, Marathas have stuck with NCP. The narrative at Lok Sabha elections has chnaged to look above caste equations and vote for country. Not so much at state level. I think BJP would have been better off going alone in MH. Fadnavis may not be as nationalist or Hindutvavadi like Shah or Yogi but he has delivered way beyond expectation on infrastructure and development. Sena just capatalized on BJPs image. But I get an impression that their core base is eroding. If Bjp-Sena core base has to choose between the two, Sena would fare very badly.


You sure about that, looks like SS kept its tally but it's bJP whose numbers are down.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:25
by Karthik S
vijayk wrote:get better CMs with strong ideological background too.


Many in BJP get ideological only during elections, then they won't touch anything remotely ideological.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:28
by Santosh
kittoo wrote:
Karthik S wrote:


There are Muslim majority seats in Maharashtra too? Surprised.

Plenty. Parts of Mumbai are no-go areas for Hindus. Jalgaon, Malegaon, Aurangabad are all Muslim majority areas

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:29
by Santosh
Karthik S wrote:
Santosh wrote:At the rural level, people still stick to their jatis. More so in Haryana where Jats seem to have voted for Hooda or Chautala. Even in MH, Marathas have stuck with NCP. The narrative at Lok Sabha elections has chnaged to look above caste equations and vote for country. Not so much at state level. I think BJP would have been better off going alone in MH. Fadnavis may not be as nationalist or Hindutvavadi like Shah or Yogi but he has delivered way beyond expectation on infrastructure and development. Sena just capatalized on BJPs image. But I get an impression that their core base is eroding. If Bjp-Sena core base has to choose between the two, Sena would fare very badly.


You sure about that, looks like SS kept its tally but it's bJP whose numbers are down.

How? SS won 56/124. BJP won 105/150.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:43
by chetak
Santosh wrote:
Karthik S wrote:[/b]

You sure about that, looks like SS kept its tally but it's bJP whose numbers are down.

How? SS won 56/124. BJP won 105/150.


everyone including the presstitute and soldout press is only talking about the BJP's 2014 numbers Vs the 2019 numbers, slyly omitting the fact that the BJP in 2014 had contested a much larger number of seats on its own and won a larger number of seats because of that.

if anything, its the SS numbers that have dragged down the coalition numbers.

This should be a lesson that "friendly fights" are OK but this unrealistic seat sharing with "allies" is counterproductive.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:46
by Vikas
<Mah>
My uninformed guess is that SS is not going out of NDA. They have a future of expanding their base post demise of NCP but once they go Green, They lose their sheen.
BTW SS is what brings muscle to Hindu causes in Mumbai at least, Loutness be damned.

<Haryana>
I wont be surprised if we see defection from JJP and INLD in near future towards whosoever ends up forming the govt.
Khattar did good work but looks like people weren't thrilled. This whole argument of core voter staying home doesn't cut.
Anyways 2nd election is always hard for most of the CM's unless you are Naveen Patanaik.
With Devi Lal family back in business, It would be very hard for 3 parties to survive in a small state like Haryana. We will see one of the 3 parties losing vote bank quickly.
I would say that Bharat is still driven by caste lines (Among Hindus) and Patriarchy in the absence of any wave or Modi Ji. What we saw in HR was manifestation of the same.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 10:53
by Mollick.R
Vikas wrote:Anyways 2nd election is always hard for most of the CM's unless you are Naveen Patanaik.


Not fair sir jee :(( , you forgot to mention the the Platinum standard here.
the one & only NAMO. :D

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 11:00
by abhijitm
CRamS wrote:In many ways, I am more disappointed at the Maha result no matter what spin ModiJi/Shah/Fadnavis put out on strike rate. Reason being that Maha is a big and strategically important state nationally, and more worryingly, BJP has to depend on those Shiv Sena louts. I can't stand those jokers. They can be constant drag on BJP.

I share the emotion but at the end win is a win. NCP+Cong have deep roots in across MH over the decades when BJP was just a newborn. SS worked tirelessly hard under tall leadership of Bal Thackeray to establish itself as opposition. Imagine the tough job that. NCP+Cong are not just politicians, politics is a derivative of web of businesses they have established at village levels. This is above and beyond ideology. To break into that you need 15-20 years of continuous rule of BJP.

BJP cannot grow organically in MH. Period. There is a limit and SS realized that limit long ago. Only way forward is slowly parasite the ecosystem.

This is not a grand win, sure, but it is a huge achievement to retain the power. You lose one term and all your progress undone. Start from blackboard again.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 11:08
by abhijitm
Santosh wrote:If Bjp-Sena core base has to choose between the two, Sena would fare very badly.

My reading is the adjustment of core is already done between BJP and SS over last decade. Whoever are now supporting, majority will stay with their respective party.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 11:32
by Karthik S
Looks like aimim has won couple in MH and one in BH. Guys, keep an eye on it, this party comes from razakars. Anyone from Hyd would know their mentality. in 10 years time, when the now 8 9 years old will be eligible to vote, we can see many MPs and MLAs from that party in parliament and assemblies. How things will be then is anyone's guess.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:12
by chetak
abhijitm wrote:
Santosh wrote:If Bjp-Sena core base has to choose between the two, Sena would fare very badly.

My reading is the adjustment of core is already done between BJP and SS over last decade. Whoever are now supporting, majority will stay with their respective party.


to conclusively test this premise, both parties have to contest from all the seats at the same time.

It's only then that the wheat will get clearly separated from the chaff.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:19
by Prem Kumar
Karthik S wrote:Looks like aimim has won couple in MH and one in BH. Guys, keep an eye on it, this party comes from razakars. Anyone from Hyd would know their mentality. in 10 years time, when the now 8 9 years old will be eligible to vote, we can see many MPs and MLAs from that party in parliament and assemblies. How things will be then is anyone's guess.


Arthashastra, a.k.a Raja Dharma, dictates that such evil is nipped in the bud. But it requires an iron will.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:42
by nits
Vikas wrote:<Mah>
My uninformed guess is that SS is not going out of NDA. They have a future of expanding their base post demise of NCP but once they go Green, They lose their sheen.
BTW SS is what brings muscle to Hindu causes in Mumbai at least, Loutness be damned.

<Haryana>
I wont be surprised if we see defection from JJP and INLD in near future towards whosoever ends up forming the govt.
Khattar did good work but looks like people weren't thrilled. This whole argument of core voter staying home doesn't cut.
Anyways 2nd election is always hard for most of the CM's unless you are Naveen Patanaik.
With Devi Lal family back in business, It would be very hard for 3 parties to survive in a small state like Haryana. We will see one of the 3 parties losing vote bank quickly.
I would say that Bharat is still driven by caste lines (Among Hindus) and Patriarchy in the absence of any wave or Modi Ji. What we saw in HR was manifestation of the same.


somewhere BJP also need to introspect on whether economy and jobs did played a role in this numbers; either they can give such arguments and say All is well or see actual ground issues and work to rectify it

i see them as best party to run the nation but economy is something they have to seriously work up on; middle class is there voter base and they fill the pinch when economy is weak

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:58
by chetak
nits wrote:
Vikas wrote:<Mah>
My uninformed guess is that SS is not going out of NDA. They have a future of expanding their base post demise of NCP but once they go Green, They lose their sheen.
BTW SS is what brings muscle to Hindu causes in Mumbai at least, Loutness be damned.

<Haryana>
I wont be surprised if we see defection from JJP and INLD in near future towards whosoever ends up forming the govt.
Khattar did good work but looks like people weren't thrilled. This whole argument of core voter staying home doesn't cut.
Anyways 2nd election is always hard for most of the CM's unless you are Naveen Patanaik.
With Devi Lal family back in business, It would be very hard for 3 parties to survive in a small state like Haryana. We will see one of the 3 parties losing vote bank quickly.
I would say that Bharat is still driven by caste lines (Among Hindus) and Patriarchy in the absence of any wave or Modi Ji. What we saw in HR was manifestation of the same.


somewhere BJP also need to introspect on whether economy and jobs did played a role in this numbers; either they can give such arguments and say All is well or see actual ground issues and work to rectify it

i see them as best party to run the nation but economy is something they have to seriously work up on; middle class is there voter base and they fill the pinch when economy is weak



the rural voter in the sugar belt has been inundated with money by people involved in the PMC coop bank scam.

otherwise the main accused would not have managed to win by such huge margins.

yes, there is a slowdown, farmer distress and floods due to reasons beyond anyone's control. These are acknowledged global phenomena and to say that it is very specific to BJP rule is disingenuous.

The Modi govt has started to pushback against the slowdown and distress but at the same time it has to be acknowledged that these are the very conditions in which the commie/naxal/left always find their very familiar breeding grounds and start to stir up trouble.

if anyone followed the crazed "advice" from carrot, daniel raja and yechury, we would be headed down that very path taken by venezuela, the path to destruction, perdition, and doom

whatever anyone may do, there is no satisfying the middle class.

these frustrated buggers simply have no say because they just do not vote in sufficient numbers for the politicos to sit up and take notice of them and so, their domestic servants end up getting a better deal from the politicos than they do

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:05
by Vikas
Mollick.R wrote:
Vikas wrote:Anyways 2nd election is always hard for most of the CM's unless you are Naveen Patanaik.


Not fair sir jee :(( , you forgot to mention the the Platinum standard here.
the one & only NAMO. :D


Sadharan Manushya :mrgreen: , NaMo's political legacy belongs to the pantheons of immortals now. No one can match him on any matrix. Comparing others with him would be so unfair to them.

He shall always remain 'The One we all were waiting for'.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:05
by chetak
Have you seen this kind of positive debate about RSS on our Media channels?


watch video


https://twitter.com/friendsofrss/status/1183269683950047232

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:06
by pankajs
BJP's performance in Maha in this election mirrored it performance in 2014. To that extent the performance was good. I don't get the negativity!

2014: BJP 122
2019: BJP 105 + 15 (BJP rebels) = 120

OTOH, NCP/CON performance did get better but the reason is realignment rather than any anger against the Maha CM. Last time, Muslims had 3 choices, the NCP, the CON and the MIM+VMA (Bhim party .. whatever it is called). The vote slit.

This time there was NCP+CON and there was NO MIM+VMA (or whatever). The choice for Muslims was very easy this time and they voted tactically to lift the numbers for NCP/CON.

Simple! People are falling for the media narrative without applying their mind!

Could the BJP have done better? Of course there were issues within BJP and BJP/SS but there was NO anger against the BJP/SS government.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:10
by Vikas
Is there more anger against Congress on BRF halls whereas Ordinary Abdul still treats them like any other political party ?
Hence we keep seeing Congress bouncing back although with less bounce every few election cycles. e.g. In HR or MH, Those who opposed BJP+ rule, They had no other option but to go in for Congress+/JJP.

The only way to bury congress is to create another Opposition party in its place as it happened in TN,WB and BH.

PS: Chaiwala rumor is that Aditya Thackrey may get Dy CM position.

pankajs wrote:BJP's performance in Maha in this election mirrored it performance in 2014. To that extent the performance was good. I don't get the negativity!

2014: BJP ~120 (IIRC)
2019: BJP 105 + 15 (BJP rebels)

Simple! People are falling for the media narrative without applying their mind!

Could the BJP have done better? Of course there were issues within BJP and BJP/SS but there was NO anger against the BJP/SS government.


Very True, A lot of times, Govts not always get voted out because they were bad or voters were dissatisfied but sometimes opposition had better caste combination and money power or a state voters derive this sadistic pleasure of kicking out incumbent every time (e.g KL or UP or PB).

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:12
by syam
One can be never more perfect while people demanding more perfection. The trick is to present yourself as better perfect than other 'perfects' out there.

coming to economy, it is the core of congi-eco system. modiji never going to fix it. only option for him is to come up with his own economy. he should recreate baba ramdev model and create big companies run by pro-bjp folks. more than bjp, these businesses should be run by sangh. sadly, it will never happen. sangh is totally unfit for modern world.

to make impact, bjp need to capture the economy. otherwise, same story will run for decades.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:24
by pankajs
Vikas wrote:Is there more anger against Congress on BRF halls whereas Ordinary Abdul still treats them like any other political party ?
Hence we keep seeing Congress bouncing back although with less bounce every few election cycles. e.g. In HR or MH, Those who opposed BJP+ rule, They had no other option but to go in for Congress+/JJP.

The only way to bury congress is to create another Opposition party in its place as it happened in TN,WB and BH.

PS: Chaiwala rumor is that Aditya Thackrey may get Dy CM position.

In Maha, the CON did not benefit from the consolidation of anti-BJP vote. Most of the benefit went to NCP (+13) vs CON (+2).

Is NCP any better than CON? Its link to D-gang, its castist politics, etc are all the same. Pawar spread the fake news of a blast inside a Mosque to guilt trip the Yindus during the Mumbai serial blast. Is TMC any better than CON?

OTOH, as is the case with BJP, a pan India party will out of necessity have to "dilute" its ideological outlook/program to cater to a diverse electorate that a SS or a TMC or a DMK does not have to. Infact, if one follows the election analysis, one will notice that BJP's much performs better against the CON in a head to head fight than most regional party.

There is no easy answer.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:31
by Vikas
pankajs wrote:There is no easy answer.


+100 to that.

It ain't easy being ML Khattar or DF.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:36
by pankajs
syam wrote:One can be never more perfect while people demanding more perfection. The trick is to present yourself as better perfect than other 'perfects' out there.

coming to economy, it is the core of congi-eco system. modiji never going to fix it. only option for him is to come up with his own economy. he should recreate baba ramdev model and create big companies run by pro-bjp folks. more than bjp, these businesses should be run by sangh. sadly, it will never happen. sangh is totally unfit for modern world.

to make impact, bjp need to capture the economy. otherwise, same story will run for decades.

1. Modi will have to dismantle the CON/NCP patronage system. Is already a work in progress.
2. What is this "come up with his own economy"? Modi needs to build a parallel economy!
3. Are you serious with "create big companies run by pro-bjp folks"? Replicate China in India!

Every line of the above is comment worthy and not is a positive way. Please don't write on things you clearly don't understand.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:39
by somdev
Saheb has proven once again that he is still relevant in Maharashtra. Also, Hoodaji kept the Gandhi family out to a great extent during campaigning and got good results for his party in Haryana!

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:47
by pankajs
Per Turdesai, in Haryana, Jats + SC + Muslims ~ 60% of votes

The results can simply be explained as

1. Jats consolidate away from BJP. The number of Jat BJP candidate win should confirm that.

2. SC split away from the BJP. Probable reasons
2a. Ram Rahim's arrest turned Dera's supporters, who were mostly SCs, away from BJP.
2b. Recently a Temple was demolished on SC order in/around Delhi of some saint, IIRC a SC saint. Possible anger against BJP.
Again, the number of SC wins on BJP ticket should confirm this.

These 2 factors could easily account for the BJP slippage in this election. Rest is all hawa bazi. The media is as usual peddling nonsense to spread gloom in the middle class who watch tv and read news.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:48
by somdev
Vayutuvan wrote:
somdev wrote:विद्वत्वं च नृपत्वं च नैव तल्यं कदाचन ।
स्वदेशे पूज्यते राजा विद्वान् सर्वत्र पूज्यते ॥


Somdev ji, be as it may, do you think that NYAY was a good thing and would have worked? In the past, you have supported MGNREGA, IIRC.


Sirji .... Abhijit babu proposed a figure for NYAY based on his grass-root experience and his thinking. It was up to the Congress party to take it on board and roll out their pre-election promise .... which they did and inflated the NYAY dole amount. In no way Abhijit Banerjee drafted NYAY ... it was Jairam Ramesh and PC's brainchild and work. Abhijit Banerjee has previously worked with Modiji when he was Gujarat CM and similarly provided inputs to policy 'interventions' based on his randomised control trial experiments in Gujarat state. In all his interviews he has categorically stated that he has no solution to eradicate poverty ... he merely puts his views and proposes simple interventions which may yield some short to mid term results. Policy making is a pretty long term thing and requires a systems thinking mindset backed by scientific evidence base. In every country policies take into account all the scientific evidence base and the analysis yet they also retain 'populist' flavour which will garner votes for politicians ... and that is understood!

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 13:53
by pankajs
somdev wrote:Saheb has proven once again that he is still relevant in Maharashtra. Also, Hoodaji kept the Gandhi family out to a great extent during campaigning and got good results for his party in Haryana!

The advantage for BJP with "Sabeh" proving his relevance are as follows

1. "Sabeh" is a one man army and will leave the scene sooner than later. The party will not survive beyond him and the vote-catcher and the votes will shift.

2. "Sabeh" has good equations with Modi. Wasn't it "Sabeh" who supplied outside support when the BJP was at war with SS after the 2014 elections?

ALL iz Bhell is Maharastra.

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Posted: 25 Oct 2019 14:01
by pankajs
pankajs wrote:Per Turdesai, in Haryana, Jats + SC + Muslims ~ 60% of votes

The results can simply be explained as

1. Jats consolidate away from BJP. The number of Jat BJP candidate win should confirm that.

2. SC split away from the BJP. Probable reasons
2a. Ram Rahim's arrest turned Dera's supporters, who were mostly SCs, away from BJP.
2b. Recently a Temple was demolished on SC order in/around Delhi of some saint, IIRC a SC saint. Possible anger against BJP.
Again, the number of SC wins on BJP ticket should confirm this.

These 2 factors could easily account for the BJP slippage in this election. Rest is all hawa bazi. The media is as usual peddling nonsense to spread gloom in the middle class who watch tv and read news.

Just forgot to mention ...

BJP itself did some hawa bazi, both in Maha and Haryana and that is reflected in the results. BJP extrapolated its 2019 results to the Assembly.

What happened is not a bad outcome if one is a BJP supporters. The hubris was crushed and the hawa was deflated and even while the states were retained. Modi too starts reaching for the Sun at time and this is the best kind of grounding. Best of both worlds.