2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12421
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Nov 2019 16:28

169 - 154 = 15 independents/smaller parties who number around 29 IIRC. It does not require deep analysis.

We can test it in reverse too.
288 - 154 (MVA) - 105 (BJP) = 29 (Others/Independents)

15 of the Others/Independents swung the MVA way and 14 the BJP way. Zimple.
Last edited by pankajs on 30 Nov 2019 16:31, edited 1 time in total.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20509
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 30 Nov 2019 16:28

sajo wrote:
Kashi wrote:It is a representation of the aspirations of Maha voters. The number of votes is more than the combined strength of the three parties (56+54+44=154).


How? Aspiration was displayed as 105+56.. Unless I missed some sarcasm. I am willing to bet more than half of those 56 got elected purely because people believed they were voting for the existing Govt.


they had purchased the votes of some independents because the three parties feared sabotage from within. :mrgreen:

let's wait and see how long this sickular experiment lasts.

each "partner" seems to be greedier than the other

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12421
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Nov 2019 16:35

^^
Pawarful has grown very wary of Ajit Pawar. Very interesting family dynamics at play for a while now but with AP's play to split the party, cracks are much more visible and troubling for Pawarful.

Doesn't mean NCP is going to split tomorrow or the day after BUT Pawarful has to decide on the successor pretty soon. Interesting times ahead.


sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 323
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 30 Nov 2019 16:54

Kashi wrote:It is a representation of the aspirations of Maha voters. The number of votes is more than the combined strength of the three parties (56+54+44=154).


Did Maha voters vote for SS, aspiring it to join Congress and NCP after elections to form the Government? Never heard this aspiration of SS voters at election time

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3608
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 30 Nov 2019 17:03

sajo wrote:How? Aspiration was displayed as 105+56.. Unless I missed some sarcasm. I am willing to bet more than half of those 56 got elected purely because people believed they were voting for the existing Govt.


There's no way of telling is it? Unless "more than half of those 56 got elected purely because people believed they were voting for the existing Govt." actually act on those beliefs (unlikely, given that they voted for the new alignment), it shall remain on record that the present Maha government has the support of 169 voters' representatives.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6323
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 30 Nov 2019 17:05

Garga Chatterjee is a stinky skunk that no Bengali worth his salt should touch with a barge pole irrespective of which political party he supports or belongs to. He is a newly repackaged version of the older Bengali Commie agenda of pandering to a frog in the well syndrome of Bengali sub-nationalism. All our great leaders have believed and worked for Indian nationalism. We don't need no skunks to teach us what it means to be a Bengali. Bengal is the birthplace of modern Hindu nationalism after the Maratha empire collapsed.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6323
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 30 Nov 2019 17:09

Those "seculars" who are gloating about the MVA coming to power in MH will not know in future what hit them if the SS turns out to be a successful political party. Then instead of one you will have two - both ruling and opposition as Hindutva parties. Good luck to UT. Hope you build a party and not a family - as building a family is going to lead you to what has happened to the INC.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12421
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Nov 2019 17:32


You convinced me earlier that you were in the Jai Garga Chatterjee camp with your detailed presentation on him and his effort in Bengal. Clearly I was wrong! Looks like you are in the anti-BJP camp rather than pro-Garga or pro-Sena or pro-DMK camp.

That is ok too because Modi's 303 came because of mindless anti-BJP-ism that reverse polarizes votes in his favor. Btw, Garga/Mumtaz jee's effort allowed BJP to score big in West Bengal. Please keep bashing Modi with the same fervor as before. Theek hai.

Mindless opposition to NRC too will ensure that BJP eats CON/Left space in Bengal in the next assembly with a fully polarized electorate. Current projection don't show BJP overthrowing the TMC but it will become the principle opposition party in Bengal with a very LS like seat split.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6323
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 30 Nov 2019 17:46

Garga is not anti- or pro- anything. He is pure tomfool. He has to just speak a few sentences and you can catch him. These are the morphed Commies. After Bengalies kcked out that ideology they are peddling the same horse goo with fresh perfume.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12421
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Nov 2019 17:56

^^
My comments was on our posters ideology which seems to be anti-bjp. His support for Garga and Sena alliance is because he thinks they will take BJP down. A few days back he was Jai Garga and now he is Jai Maharashtra just like "The Wire" the liar. :rotfl:

Graga is a hole of another kind. While I do not follow him and whatever little I have gathered is because someone passed his comments along and they were just mindless rants of a ant-bjp kind. I have no interest in researching him further. His kind don't swing votes. I would rather watch Pawarful and his moves.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6323
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 30 Nov 2019 18:29

If anyone wants to know what the new generation of Bengali intellectuals think - read or watch them speaking. They are the likes of Sanjeev Sanyal, Anuj Dhar, Anirban Ganguly, etc.

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5544
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vishvak » 30 Nov 2019 20:25

Godse killed Ghandy; both were patriots

Sirji, when power is with people who don't vote depending on votebanks see what happened when judgement for RJB was given a few days back. Nothing happened, no horseshit about kheelaphet etc. Don't go by a vs b and work for own good.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6323
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 30 Nov 2019 21:08

So MH is the first state in India where both the ruling and opposition party have Hindutva ideology.

ritesh
BRFite
Posts: 244
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 17:48
Location: Mumbai

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ritesh » 30 Nov 2019 21:31

sajo wrote:
Kashi wrote:It is a representation of the aspirations of Maha voters. The number of votes is more than the combined strength of the three parties (56+54+44=154).


How? Aspiration was displayed as 105+56.. Unless I missed some sarcasm. I am willing to bet more than half of those 56 got elected purely because people believed they were voting for the existing Govt.

Thank god. My vote to SS went in loosing cause.
Will never ever going vote for these pawar-hungry party.
Let this be forewarning to BJP going forward. No tie up, just stand on your own feet.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5218
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 30 Nov 2019 22:51

ANI@ANI
RSS joint general secretary Dr Krishna Gopal at an event in Delhi yesterday: I can say with confidence that if Dara Shikoh had ruled India then Islam would have flourished in the country & Hindus would have also understood Islam better.


Were they always like this and we are seeing their true face now?

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18641
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 30 Nov 2019 22:58

He is right in a way. DS was pushing a syncretic form of Islam that had the potential to be very popular and may have provided a good push back vs the extreme Sunni forms currently prevalent.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12421
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 30 Nov 2019 23:28

https://twitter.com/MeghaSPrasad/status ... 3840729088
Megha Prasad @MeghaSPrasad

#DevendraFadnavis storms out of the Maharastra assembly citing violation of the constitution - 1) vande mataram was not sung at the start of the assembly 2) Governor not summoned 3) was informed about new session at 1am [4) protem speaker changed against rules #MahaFloorTest
Rest I can understand but why the last maneuver from an alliance that has the number plus more? Lack of confidence on their own but theek hai.

fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3097
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby fanne » 30 Nov 2019 23:51

baba ji -जाने कौन मोमबत्तियां पकड़ना सिखा गया हमको वरना नारी सम्मान में हम तो #महाभारत और #लंकादहन कर देते थे।

#HyderabadHorror #RIPHumanity #HangRapists #HyderabadMurder

Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2770
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rony » 01 Dec 2019 00:25

Karan M wrote:He is right in a way. DS was pushing a syncretic form of Islam that had the potential to be very popular and may have provided a good push back vs the extreme Sunni forms currently prevalent.


The Berelvi form of Islam which is prevalent in Indian subcontinent is considered as Liberal Islam compared to the Deobandi which is a later addition. Many Indian muslims were also converted under Sufi influence but after a generation or two, the new generation see them as shirk and want to follow "pure" Islam and want to purge their religion of the shirk with the result that now even Barelvis pretty much resemble the Deobandis for the most part.Even if DS had won over Aurangazeb, there is no guarantee his descendants would have followed his teachings. Aurangzeb himself is a descendant of "liberal" Akbar.

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2029
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 01 Dec 2019 01:03

Rony wrote:
Karan M wrote:He is right in a way. DS was pushing a syncretic form of Islam that had the potential to be very popular and may have provided a good push back vs the extreme Sunni forms currently prevalent.


The Berelvi form of Islam which is prevalent in Indian subcontinent is considered as Liberal Islam compared to the Deobandi which is a later addition. Many Indian muslims were also converted under Sufi influence but after a generation or two, the new generation see them as shirk and want to follow "pure" Islam and want to purge their religion of the shirk with the result that now even Barelvis pretty much resemble the Deobandis for the most part.Even if DS had won over Aurangazeb, there is no guarantee his descendants would have followed his teachings. Aurangzeb himself is a descendant of "liberal" Akbar.


This is something I posted in another thread about Dara Shikoh:

One interesting thing in Bernier's work is his account of how Dara Shikoh (Aurangazeb's eldest brother) was on the point of converting to Christianity, and how, if he'd become the Mughal emperor instead of Aurangazeb, India would have got her first Christian ruler right then. Apparently, just before he was murdered, Dara Shikoh kept murmuring "Mohammed has betrayed me, but the son of Miriam will save me."


This is from the accounts of the French traveler, Bernier, who traveled extensively in northern India back in the 1600's.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20509
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Dec 2019 07:37

Sharad Pawar had sent message to PM Modi and Amit Shah with two demands for his support in Maharashtra, they rejected both



NOVEMBER 30, 2019

Sharad Pawar had sent message to PM Modi and Amit Shah with two demands for his support in Maharashtra, they rejected both

It was also speculated that Sharad Pawar gave his tactical consent to his nephew's move but afterwards, he took to Twitter to deny the alliance of the NCP with the BJP.

OPINDIA STAFF
NOVEMBER 30, 2019


Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena has finally been sworn in as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra after Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP alliance formed the government in the state. The development came after Ajit Pawar of NCP had withdrawn support from the BJP government leading to the resignation of Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar as CM and Deputy CM respectively. It now appears that Sharad Pawar himself was ready to offer support to BJP and had sent communication with two demands to PM Modi and HM Amit Shah, and BJP had rejected them both, leading to the fall of the 3-day old alliance between Ajit Pawar and BJP.

Sharad Pawar, the NCP supremo had written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah with two conditions to support the government formation in Maharashtra. Both these demands were reportedly rejected by the party.

Demand 1: Removal of Devendra Fadnavis

According to IANS, the first demand that NCP supremo Sharad Pawar had placed before PM Modi and Amit Shah was that Devendra Fadnavis should not be Maharashtra’s Chief Minister and that he should be removed.

It is unclear as to why Pawar was adamant about Devendra Fadnavis being removed as the CM of Maharashtra. Either way, this demand was summarily rejected by BJP. PM Modi and Amit Shah were never in favour of removing Devendra Fadnavis since he had completed his 5-year tenure without any controversy or allegations.

Devendra Fadnavis was the first Chief Minister to complete his 5-year tenure in 47 years.

Apart from this, the party contested the elections with Fadnavis as the CM face and even the Prime Minister, while addressing the party workers from the BJP headquarters on 24 October, had announced him as the Chief Minister. Hence, it was difficult for the BJP to accept this demand from the NCP supremo.

Demand 2: Agriculture Ministry to Supriya Sule

The second demand that Sharad Pawar posed to PM Modi and Amit Shah was the Agriculture Ministry be given to Supriya Sule.

According to IANS, this demand was rejected as well. BJP thought that if it decided to offer the agriculture ministry to the NCP, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), its ally from Bihar, will demand the railway ministry. In this situation, despite having the mandate, the BJP would lose two big ministries.

The 40-minute meeting between Sharad Pawar and PM Modi
After NCP supremo Sharad Pawar got no response on these two demands from the BJP, Pawar had met PM Modi and conducted a 40-minute meeting regarding the same. According to IANS, during the 40-minute meeting between Sharad Pawar and PM Modi, the Prime Minister did not agree to the demands posed by Sharad Pawar.

On 22 November, Sharad Pawar’s nephew and senior NCP leader Ajit Pawar offered support to the BJP. It was said that Ajit Pawar had the backing of around 30-35 MLAs who were ready to support the BJP.

Read: Hunger for power is such that Shiv Sena wants to align with Sonia Gandhi: Devendra Fadnavis resigns as Maharashtra Chief Minister

It was also speculated that Sharad Pawar gave his tactical consent to his nephew’s move but afterwards, he took to Twitter to deny the alliance of the NCP with the BJP.

According to speculations, though Sharad Pawar had distanced himself publicly, Ajit Pawar had Sharad Pawar’s tacit support in his alliance. Pawar had hoped that BJP will eventually concede to both demands posed by Sharad Pawar however, that did not happen and thus, Ajit Pawar was asked to retreat and NCP joined hands with Congress and Shiv Sena to form the government.

Dilip Deodhar, the RSS ideologue from Nagpur, told IANS, “There was a buzz about Sharad Pawar’s demands in the Sangh, but Modi’s denial was more than that. Since the farmers’ issue is one of the main matters in the state, the agriculture ministry would have been the best bet for the NCP. Sharad Pawar had earlier served as the agriculture minister.

“Secondly, Fadnavis was the choice of Modi so there was no question of replacing him. When Sharad Pawar finally understood that the BJP will not agree to his demands, he decided to ally with the Sena and the Congress.”

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20509
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Dec 2019 07:53

from firstpost


The row between Congress leaders and Pragya Singh Thakur intensified Saturday, with the BJP Bhopal MP attacking the Congress over the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and slamming party leader Rahul Gandhi.

On Thursday, Congress MLA Govardhan Dangi threatened to threatened to burn Pragya alive if she set foot in the state, the same day Rahul took to Twitter to slam the MP.

Pragya hit back on Twitter:

"Congressmen have old experience of burning people, from theSikhs in 1984 to Naina Sahni (victim of the 1995 'tandoor' murder in Delhi) in the tandoor. Rahul Gandhi termed (me) terrorist and his MLA Govardhan Dangi will burn me. So, I am reaching Biaora at his residence in Multanpura at 4 pm on 8 December, 2019. Burn me."

कांग्रेसियों को जिंदा जलाने का पुराना अनुभव है1984 मैं सिखों को और नैना साहनी को तंदूर में जलाने तक का।@RahulGandhi ने आतंकी कहा और उनके विधायक गोवर्धन दांगी मुझे जलाएंगे।ठीक है तो मैं आ रही हूं ब्यावरा उनके निवास मुल्तानपुरा पर दिनांक 8 दिसंबर 2019 समय सायं 4:00 बजे जला लीजिए

— Sadhvi Pragya Official (@SadhviPragya_MP) November 30, 2019

In another tweet, she called Dangi a close associate of senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh, whom she defeated in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Bhopal, and a propagator of "Rahul Gandhi's and Kamal Nath government's idea of non-violence".

यह है कांग्रेस के विधायक गोवर्धन दांगी दिग्विजय सिंह के खास राहुल गांधी के विचारों के पोषक और कमलनाथ सरकार के पैरोकार अहिंसा के पुजारी। pic.twitter.com/FfaEvWjmfZ

— Sadhvi Pragya Official (@SadhviPragya_MP) November 30, 2019

Pragya stirred up a controversy after calling Mahatma Gandhi's assassin Nathuram Godse 'a patriot' during a discussion on the Special Protection Group (SPG) Bill in Parliament, inviting strong criticism from Opposition leaders and leading the BJP to expel her from the Parliamentary consultative committee on defence.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18641
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 01 Dec 2019 08:11

Rony wrote:
Karan M wrote:He is right in a way. DS was pushing a syncretic form of Islam that had the potential to be very popular and may have provided a good push back vs the extreme Sunni forms currently prevalent.


The Berelvi form of Islam which is prevalent in Indian subcontinent is considered as Liberal Islam compared to the Deobandi which is a later addition. Many Indian muslims were also converted under Sufi influence but after a generation or two, the new generation see them as shirk and want to follow "pure" Islam and want to purge their religion of the shirk with the result that now even Barelvis pretty much resemble the Deobandis for the most part.Even if DS had won over Aurangazeb, there is no guarantee his descendants would have followed his teachings. Aurangzeb himself is a descendant of "liberal" Akbar.


DS's version of Islam was far far more "liberal" than the Barelvi types in the conventional sense with him reading H scriptures and trying to mix and match that with Islamic readings. Would they have lost influence over time with the new gen petrodollar push and the rise of the deobandi school, sure. But at least you'd have a huge chunk of Indian M's more liberal and in tune with some of their Hindu peers. At least, that's my guess.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18641
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 01 Dec 2019 08:14

Really like Sadhvi Pragya's combativeness. This shows Modi and co are not overtaken by p-secitis as their critics keep alleging. First, they had her apologize etc to ensure the p-sec media lapdogs of the INC did not make the whole issue even bigger. Then, they removed her from the Std committee post to ensure "action was taken". Third, she gets to go on the offensive and take on the INC and its chamchas. Good. They can't torture her and then use her as a scapegoat for their rubbish either, merely because she exercised the very FOE they keep pretending to support (but don't).

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20509
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Dec 2019 08:46

Expect an anti India onslaught and tirade from niazi and his beleaguered mentor.

For anything going awry in pukiland, we are their natural fall guys.

RSS and Modi may feature prominently in this tirade.


Imran and Bajwa on sticky wicket


Imran and Bajwa on sticky wicket

THE SUNDAY GUARDIAN
November 30, 2019, 6:19 PM

Something very curious is going on in India’s immediate neighbourhood—across its western borders to be specific. The judiciary in Pakistan seems to have discovered the spine to take on the chief of the Pakistan army, something unthinkable until recently. First the Supreme Court suspended the three-year extension given to General Qamar Javed Bajwa by the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan Niazi, through an interim order and later, even while allowing Bajwa an extension of six months, the court issued a stern warning to the government about legislating on the rules and procedures of appointing the army chief, including giving him an extension.

Considering Pakistan is a country where army chiefs extend their tenures at their own will and considering, earlier, a PPP government had given an extension to then General Ashfaq Kayani without anyone protesting, no wonder the Supreme Court’s sudden zealousness is being described by the Pakistani media as an instance of “unprecedented assertion”. The question is if this sudden display of bravado would have been possible without the backing of the army in a country where the reins of actual power are in the hands of the military establishment. Seemingly, a revolt is brewing in the upper echelons of the Pakistan army over the extension given to Bajwa.

Reports are that Bajwa’s extension has destroyed the career progressions of over 15 lieutenant generals, who will have to retire before Bajwa retires in three years’ time. Pakistan may have an army chief, but the chief is not the army. At best he is the first among equals. Rawalpindi GHQ is about a group of generals, the corps commanders, who control everything and select the army chief from amongst themselves.

That there is unrest among the corps commanders becomes obvious from the way Bajwa made certain appointments, thus trying to eliminate all possibilities of dissent against his extension. The most prominent of such moves was the supersession of the senior-most officer after Bajwa, Lt Gen Sarfraz Sattar, by Gen Nadeem Raza as Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, the second most important post after the army chief. Sattar was apparently then COAS Raheel Sharif’s choice to become army chief in 2019, following the natural sequence of promotions. Sattar had a year of service left but retired once he was superseded. And this is just one instance. Bajwa has carried out a major reshuffle, obviously in an attempt to surround himself with loyalists who would strengthen his hands if he continues for three more years as army chief.

This being the situation, it is but natural that questions will be raised about who added the steel to the judiciary’s spine. In fact, the judiciary’s arrow is targeted not just at Bajwa but also at Imran Khan Niazi, who, anyway is in dire straits and is proving to be incapable of governing his country.

As the economy spirals out of his control, Niazi’s reliance on the army increases to run Pakistan, or rather to stop himself from running it aground. As people’s resentment rises against his government, Niazi is getting increasingly dependent on Bajwa to ensure that he is able to retain his chair. This also has to be seen in the context of reports that the army chief is now personally trying to tackle the economic mess that the country has landed in.

As observers in Pakistan have been pointing out, their country is witnessing a “diarchy of power”, where “personal relationship”—some sort of a quid pro quo arrangement—is ensuring the continuance of not just Imran Khan Niazi, but also the extension of Gen Bajwa’s “rule”.

This sudden rebellion against both Imran Khan and Bajwa has to be seen in the context of another player, whose name is not being mentioned but who has Pakistan confined in a straitjacket—China.

There is speculation that China, which has a major Uyghur problem in its hands and in typical style is being heavy-handed in tackling it, is unhappy with the push being given by Niazi and Bajwa to align Pakistan’s interests with that of Turkey.

The Islamic Caliphate idea, with Turkey as the head, which is being pushed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has found the most ardent backers in Pakistan and in Malaysia under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. However, it is not helping the Pakistani duo’s case that Turkey may have banned the Turkic Uyghurs’ East

Turkistan Islamic Movement (now known as Turkistan Islamic Party/Movement) operating in China’s Xinjiang province as a terrorist organisation, but reports are that “unofficial” support to the “jihadist” organisation still continues.

Given the present circumstances, Niazi and Bajwa may have gone too far when it comes to Turkey, a fact that has angered China.

Whatever be the case, the future is looking increasingly uncertain for both Imran Khan Niazi and General Qamar Javed Bajwa. There cannot be a military coup in Pakistan for fear of American sanctions, but the world should not be surprised if the duo’s downfall comes through a judicial coup, sooner or later, just the way it happened with Nawaz Sharif.

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2084
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby g.sarkar » 01 Dec 2019 08:56

Very good article. But Sunday Guardian has called the PM Imran Khan Niazi, not Dimran. Shows that the newspaper has still much to learn about Pak lands.
Gautam

Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2770
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rony » 01 Dec 2019 09:14

Karan M wrote:DS's version of Islam was far far more "liberal" than the Barelvi types in the conventional sense with him reading H scriptures and trying to mix and match that with Islamic readings.


Long before DS, Akbar tried similar syncretism with his Din-i Ilahi. "Liberal" Sufi Ahmad Sirhindi called it blasphemy to Islam with the result that it died a natural death. If a person like Akbar who was already an emperor could not make it successful, DS wouldn't have fared any better even if he had become a emperor.

Sikhism was supposed to be a another similar syncretism exercise to bring some kind of syncretic unity between Hindus and Muslims. It worked with Hindus and Hindus only. All the Sikh gurus, all or most of the original Sikh disciplines are all Hindus. There was never any significant Muslims who joined Sikhism willingly like Hindus and became Sikhs.

Shiridi Sai Baba is another example. He propounded "Eshwar Allah sab ek" . Hindus fell for it and became his disciples and built big big temples for him. But no significant amount of Muslims became his worshipers and worship him.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18641
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 01 Dec 2019 09:53

Well Akbar was well advanced by the time he started this Deen Ilahi stuff. Shukoh had an entire era in front of him. Who knows, he might have had a significant group of muslims codify his teachings. Anyways, all a theoretical what if only, but the basic point was the RSS guy wasn't wrong in what he said, from his POV.

sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 323
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 01 Dec 2019 10:08

ANI@ANI
RSS joint general secretary Dr Krishna Gopal at an event in Delhi yesterday: I can say with confidence that if Dara Shikoh had ruled India then Islam would have flourished in the country & Hindus would have also understood Islam better.


Is he regretting that Islam did not flourish in the country? Do Muslims leaders too wish for similar flourishing of Hinduism in Indian subcontinent?

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20509
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Dec 2019 10:49

Image

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2084
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby g.sarkar » 01 Dec 2019 11:31

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opin ... cs-absence
Cool Breeze: Politics of Absence
PRIYA SAHGAL, November 30, 2019.

Politics of Absence
Why did both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul boycott the Maharashtra swearing-in ceremony? Clearly, both have reservations about tying up with the hardline Hindutva outfit, Shiv Sena. In Sonia’s case this line of thought is consistent because it was during her watch that the party went in for an obvious pro minority tilt. However, during Rahul’s term as party chief there was a course correction which saw him undertake a fair amount of temple tourism and reiterate his Hindu identity. However, Rahul too chose to skip sharing the stage with Uddhav Thackeray, ostensibly for fear it would cut into his “secular” image. Which makes one wonder if there will be yet another re-launch of Brand Rahul with some new packaging. Of all the Congress Chief Ministers who were invited only Kamal Nath made it to the venue. One reason for this could be that he enjoys a close rapport with NCP chief Sharad Pawar. The NCP also reciprocated by giving him a seat right next to Pawar on the dais. But one wonders why other Congress CMs chose not to attend.
.......
Gautam

Vidur
BRFite
Posts: 173
Joined: 20 Aug 2017 18:57

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 01 Dec 2019 12:49

sanjayc wrote:
ANI@ANI
RSS joint general secretary Dr Krishna Gopal at an event in Delhi yesterday: I can say with confidence that if Dara Shikoh had ruled India then Islam would have flourished in the country & Hindus would have also understood Islam better.


Is he regretting that Islam did not flourish in the country? Do Muslims leaders too wish for similar flourishing of Hinduism in Indian subcontinent?


No. Muslims leaders and muslims practitioners have clarity of thought, purpose and action.

alexis
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 13 Oct 2004 22:14
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby alexis » 01 Dec 2019 12:54

ricky_v wrote:Inhabitants of tier 1 cities are pure cancer; they have the correct amount of social media cluelessness, impotent rage venting, inexact event recollection, stand up comic cum and an inexplicable itch to park their asholes in every business big or small.

Wow... Why are all the people moving to Tier 1 cities, then?

Vidur
BRFite
Posts: 173
Joined: 20 Aug 2017 18:57

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 01 Dec 2019 13:00

Am taking the liberty of being rather controversial but like to canvass this group on their thoughts on future of India in next 20-50 years.

Muslim population in India is about 16-18 %. Christian is about 7-8 %. Both these religions are converting religions and one part of their raison d etre is to convert all other religions. We know this well from world history. Is it possible to have a stable country with such a demographic ?

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5218
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 01 Dec 2019 13:10

No it's not possible. For some reason, people from and in RSS think SSSV is enough, given their stance at some issues, indics really need to come up with a new political party that's main aim along with others should be safeguarding indic way of life. Or else, we are heading for partition or civil war again, it will be quite ironic if it happens in 2047, 100 years after first partition.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11594
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Dec 2019 13:35

sanjayc wrote:
ANI@ANI
RSS joint general secretary Dr Krishna Gopal at an event in Delhi yesterday: I can say with confidence that if Dara Shikoh had ruled India then Islam would have flourished in the country & Hindus would have also understood Islam better.


Is he regretting that Islam did not flourish in the country? Do Muslims leaders too wish for similar flourishing of Hinduism in Indian subcontinent?


Easy Google search:
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... pal/487244

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) joint general secretary Dr Krishna Gopal has said that if Dara Shikoh had ruled India in place of Aurangzeb then Islam would have flourished in the country and Hindus would have also understood Islam better.

Calling Mughal prince Dara Shikoh, the eldest son of Mughal emperor Shah Jahan, an epitome of Indianness, the senior RSS functionary said that he was a 'real Hindustani' who never compromised with Islam and always tried to unite the society.


Gopal gave this statement while speaking at a symposium on 'Dara Shikoh: A hero of the Indian syncretist traditions'.

He further urged the Muslim community to follow Dara Shikoh's legacy rather complaining that there was an atmosphere of fear in the country.

"Dara was a prince, who translated Upnishads into Persian. He discussed and debated it with intellectuals. He knew the God was only one and there were different faiths to find him. Dara was never divisive. He understood the assimilative power of society and tried to establish compatibility while remaining a true Muslim," news agency ANI quoted Gopal as saying.

Gopal further said Shah Jahan knew about Shikoh’s capability and prepared ground for his succession. However, his only mistake was that he translated Upanishads to Persian, which was unacceptable to the fundamentalists.

Gopal also said that Dara Shikoh was a man of the Indian syncretist tradition who posed a direct threat to Aurangzeb who saw him as a threat to Islam.

Rejecting the statement that Muslims in India are living in an atmosphere of fear, the senior RSS functionary said that there are around 50,000 Parsis, some 45 lakh Jains and some 80 lakh followers of Buddhism who never said they are in fear then why do Muslims, who are around 16-17 crore, say they are living in an atmosphere of fear.

“They are in fear despite ruling the country for 600 years. Why don't you come out from this fear?” he said.

Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi who was also present at the event hailed Dara Shikoh as an identity of nationalism adding that he was a victim of the brutality of fanatics who were directly influenced by Aurangzeb's thinking.

Shah Jahan had designated Dara with the title Padshahzada-i-Buzurg Martaba (Prince of High Rank) and wanted to anoint him as his successor. However, in the war of succession which started after Shah Jahan's illness, Dara was defeated by his younger brother Aurangzeb and was executed in 1659 after being declared a threat to the public peace apart from being called a “heretic”.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3878
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 01 Dec 2019 14:47

Karan M wrote:Well Akbar was well advanced by the time he started this Deen Ilahi stuff. Shukoh had an entire era in front of him. Who knows, he might have had a significant group of muslims codify his teachings. Anyways, all a theoretical what if only, but the basic point was the RSS guy wasn't wrong in what he said, from his POV.

We could argue brilliantly all day about whether RSS was right or wrong in its what-if pronouncements about Dara Shikoh today or maybe RSS man Advani's pronouncements about secular Jinnah saab yesterday or whatever. Maybe if Gandhi wore suits instead of dhoti Jinnah would have remained secular and Hindus and Muslims would be singing kumbaya today, who can know?

The real informative point is the fact of RSS's preoccupation with constructing Hindu-Muslim kumbaya scenarios which are sheer fantasies. What is the point of it?

Reality with the RSS is that, in 100 years of existence, they have completely failed to create even a token cadre of Dara Shikoh or secular Jinnah type Muslims. That much we know for an obvious fact.

Now others who are familiar with the subject can comment on whether in fact RSS ever made such efforts(maybe following some chintan baithak or other) or these kumbaya fantasies are just empty pronouncements of the kind that are not uncommon among our people in public life.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12421
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 01 Dec 2019 17:55

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/cool-breeze-politics-absence
Cool Breeze: Politics of Absence
PRIYA SAHGAL, November 30, 2019.

Politics of Absence
Why did both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul boycott the Maharashtra swearing-in ceremony? Clearly, both have reservations about tying up with the hardline Hindutva outfit, Shiv Sena. In Sonia’s case this line of thought is consistent because it was during her watch that the party went in for an obvious pro minority tilt. However, during Rahul’s term as party chief there was a course correction which saw him undertake a fair amount of temple tourism and reiterate his Hindu identity. However, Rahul too chose to skip sharing the stage with Uddhav Thackeray, ostensibly for fear it would cut into his “secular” image. Which makes one wonder if there will be yet another re-launch of Brand Rahul with some new packaging. Of all the Congress Chief Ministers who were invited only Kamal Nath made it to the venue. One reason for this could be that he enjoys a close rapport with NCP chief Sharad Pawar. The NCP also reciprocated by giving him a seat right next to Pawar on the dais. But one wonders why other Congress CMs chose not to attend.
.......
Gautam
It is clear that very few in CON system believe that the tiger has changed its stripe even though it it pretending to be a house cat. Someday it will feel cornered and discover its voice and when the yellow stuff hits the fan no one wants to be colored.

The base impulse of Sena is well known. They only reason CON joined hands is to keep BJP out of power and fill the party piggy bank.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4222
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 01 Dec 2019 17:56

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3

Shocking!
BJP has not taken a decisive lead even in a single seat out of the 13 assembly segments that have faced elections today in Jharkhand, as per ground reports.

What is happening? Complacency? Wrong digital approach? Data gaps? Strategic errors?


https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1200 ... 80864?s=20


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bart S, jimmyray and 72 guests