2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 16:27

https://twitter.com/KanchanGupta/status ... 0345698304
Kanchan Gupta @KanchanGupta

Persecution is decided by a religious test. It stands to reason that #CAB addresses this fact.
PS: #CitizenshipAmmendmentBill2019 protects persecuted non-Muslims. Citizenship Act of #India places *NO* bar on Muslims from anywhere in the world from seeking shelter or citizenship.

The basic of religious persecution is THE religious test. The iconic pungi test photo from Bangladesh war of independence serves as a reminder if one was needed.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 17:36

Initially I was upset with the Government's seeming hands-off attitude to resolving JNU fracas even when things were getting out of hand with illegal confinment of Teachers, etc. AND then it hit me .. GOI wanted the students to overplay their hand till things reached a crisis point at which point it would be "forced" to act against the "miscreants".

Lo jee, GOI's patience has started paying off, definitely not in the way I expected but in the right direction. That it is via the courts is even better. The Left rif-raffs wanted a clash with GOI that they could then portray as an attack on an Academic institution and dissent. Now when the same things will happen under court order and watch they cannot claim victimization .. at least their claims will carry much less conviction because of the courts intervention. Well played GOI.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 482030.cms
JNU protest: Vice-chancellor and officials given police protection by Delhi high court
NEW DELHI: Noting that “lockdown of a university couldn’t be permitted”, Delhi high court on Wednesday ordered round-the-clock police protection for the vice-chancellor and administrative staff of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) to enable them to enter the main office building, allegedly blocked by protesting students. {Polizze on the campus on court orders! No GOI in the picture.}

Justice Pratibha M Singh observed, “Considering that JNU is a functioning university, such a lockdown of the university building cannot be permitted.” She issued the direction to police after being informed by the university that its registrar had been unable to enter the administrative block.

However, the high court also stressed that the administration ought to engage with the students and advised that “if possible, such an engagement should take place today itself” so that the face-off could be defused.

The court cited a 2017 order banning protests within 100m radius of the administrative block to point out that “if any protest has to be undertaken, the same would have to be beyond the 100m radius in a manner so as to not hamper the functioning of the university.” {And with Bolice standing guard .. Massa ullu :rotfl: }

Acknowledging that in usual circumstances “police ought not to be encouraged to enter a university campus”, Justice Singh underlined, “If the protest has taken the shape of a complete lockdown as is being expressed by the registrar, police have to ensure that law and order is maintained on the campus since ingress and egress to the administrative block cannot be stopped in any manner whatsoever.”

The court was constrained to issue the order after it was informed by the JNU administration that it could not file its response despite court orders in a sexual harassment case involving two professors due to blocked access to the building. {Well played}

JNU’s lawyer Monika Arora and Delhi Police’s advocate Rahul Mehra were asked to ensure the directions were complied with. During the hearing, Arora informed the court that despite a high court order of August 2017 directing students to protest 100m away from the administrative block and not block access to the building, the staff had been unable to access the building {Court, Lawyer and Police on the same side are a formidable combination, not to be taken lightly. Not to say that the riff-raffs cannot try new antics but this combo is one that has to be dealt with very carefully.}

Arora added that examinations were about to start and lockdown of the administrative block was posing challenges. Mehra assured the court that police would comply with the orders and also suggested that the administration must try and talk to the students to resolve the issue.

The university had separately filed a contempt of court plea against the students and police for allegedly violating a court order barring protests within 100m of the administrative block. It has said that the students “grossly violated” the 2017 order affecting JNU’s day-to-day working, which had been disrupted since October 28.

It was also claimed that police violated the order by refusing and failing to take action to maintain law and order in the university and remove the blockade around the administrative block. {University Admin with GOI and Police with GOI and yet Admin files a contempt of court plea against the bolice! .. Saab mile huan hai jee ... to create a situation such that court intervention became necessary. Theek hai.}


pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 18:00

Every sub-continental Muslim except a few, have been hurt, now hat GOI has openly accepted that non-Muslims were persecuted by Muslims. It was placed on the record at a place no less that the parliament of India.

The victim-card will be damaged by this one act of the GOI. Bangladeshi and Afghanis will come back after a show of protest for their internal audience.

The biggest shock will be felt in India and Bakistan and the after-effects will be long-lasting. No more one-sided rudali and victim-card at any level. Every Hindu will can go into any discussion on persecution in the subcontinent and trade charge for charge backed by the official position of GOI/Parliament of India. For too long the crimes of one side was whitewashed and all the blame put on the other side.

CAB may be a simple bill but it has many other side-effects that will only be revealed with time.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Dec 2019 18:23

chetak wrote:harsh mander and his sickularism drama for his foreign funded "NGO"

@harsh_mander has received most of it from religiously categorized orgns. - christian & muslim.

Out & out communal rogue masquerading as a secular champion.

What difference is there between such treasonous scumbags living in our country & the jihadi groups originating out of Pak?

He was instrumental in drafting the communal violence bill. Such unconcealed hatred towards one community

and see where the money for his "NGO" comes from


img source:@by2kaafi

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9vETM-VUAAztCO.png:large


In the table, pls note that "ACTION AID" == "CHRISTIAN AID". Started in same London flat, then split off like this precisely to fool desi dolts. But documents filed in Africa (that my Evil 6th coujin extracted in 5 mins of tapas to Googleswara) prove beyond all doubt that both are still linked at the head.

Many desis (see "dolts" above) incl. See-Near Aphsars of Tata Con-slutting Sarbhijes barn in Namboothiri Families and with Eye Eye Tea credentials, rushed to join Action Aid, claiming that it was "SECULAR". :roll:
These are the oiseules who went into the Dangs forest areas of Guj and converted the tribals, and incited them to break all the forest temples in their campaign against the Pagan Idol-Worship. Come 2002, the tribals gave back to the Conversionists with compound interest. THAT, my dear BRFees, is the main origin of the USCIRF hate against NaMo. NOTHING to do with jenn-o-cide against the BissFul.

khan
BRFite
Posts: 830
Joined: 12 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: Tx

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby khan » 12 Dec 2019 18:41

IMO, this CAB thing is another big mistake.

I mean, what is preventing anyone from Pakistan or Bangladesh saying they are Hindu/Christian or whatever and claiming Indian citizenship? And even GOI they wanted to go this, they could have easily done it in a less polarizing way, by recognizing minority religions & not recognizing minority sects of majority religions (Shia’s, Ahmed isn’t etc) as a persecuted class.

There are ways to do this without blatantly and unnecessarily upsetting people.

Even with article 370, which was well executed- the aftermath was poorly handled (in my opinion). After a few months, they should have let people vent and blow off some steam and things would have returned to normal. But they tried to over-control it.

Demonetization turned out to be a futile exercise since all the back money ended up being laundered. It would have been far more effective to ban higher denomination notes.

GST was rushed out without anyone working out the details for SME’s who are having major cash-flow issues because of the way the payment cycle works.

All these things I mentioned, protecting minorities, article 370, cleaning up black money and GST - I support!!!

But the execution has been HORRIBLE to the point where with this latest move (CAB), I am thinking CAB was done in the most inflammatory way possible to whip up religious sentiments and cover up for a weak economy. As mentioned earlier, the same thing could have been done in a much less polarizing way.

I know there are many people who are fond of Modi here - but he is losing me. Friends, Religion is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1035
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 12 Dec 2019 18:51


pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 19:17

Modi/BJP wanted opposition but especially CON to agitate on behalf of Muslims. To that extent the CAB bill was framed the way it was. Just the way Modi/BJP/JNU Admin/Police wanted the radical students to block the Admin block and hence gave them a free run of the campus.

https://twitter.com/AatishTaseer/status ... 0936822784
Aatish Taseer @AatishTaseer

Did I hear Amit Shah mention Asia Bibi in Parliament? If there is anyone Shah shares values with, it is with the persecutors of Asia and the killer of my father. He has presided over India becoming a place where mob law prevails and innocents are hunted in the name of religion. https://twitter.com/ani/status/120
https://twitter.com/sushantsareen/status/1204795022136107008
sushant sareen @sushantsareen

When OCI card is taken away, he disowns his ‘father’; when he wants to bad mouth India, he owns his ‘father’...cute
Last edited by pankajs on 12 Dec 2019 19:23, edited 1 time in total.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3590
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Dec 2019 19:22

The idea of india was idea of JLN about India. While idealistic more often it was not rooted in the realities of this world. I dont need to remind people here about JK, IWT, Hyd and China. Also, the idea of india has to be in tune with times. There's no country for Hindus. In case of Asia bibi almost every xtian majority country and their people were supportive of giving her citizenship and getting her there (except f-UK-istan of course)

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 19:29

pankajs wrote:Modi/BJP wanted opposition but especially CON to agitate on behalf of Muslims. To that extent the CAB bill was framed the way it was. Just the way Modi/BJP/JNU Admin/Police wanted the radical students to block the Admin block and hence gave them a free run of the campus.

This is what Modi/BJP wants of CON ... if they could prod CON to do this everyday that would be the best from their pov.
https://twitter.com/JhaSanjay/status/12 ... 3580513282
Sanjay Jha @JhaSanjay

I am a proud Hindu and I condemn the deliberately divisive #CAB bill which targets my fellow Muslims which has been passed by the bigoted #BJP.

manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2522
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby manjgu » 12 Dec 2019 20:53

Pankaj...the point is like this. NRC was the outcome of a accord between GOI and assam student bodies that illegal migrants will be identfied and action taken on them so as to restore primacy of assamese folks which had been eroded by migration from bdesh. With CAB , objectives of assam accord/NRC have been nullified if the new arrangement does not restore what was envisaged as the outcome of assam accord. Now u may have a opinion of multiple fires across India ( which is mere speculation) vs a real outrage/fire amongst the people of NE/Assam. This somehow feels like its better if my neighbours house is on fire...does not matter as long as i am safe. NE has been a long festering wound and this move ( ie CAB which i support in toto) does not in someway meet the objectives of assam accord is likely to reopen the wounds once again. I am of the opinion that migrants need to be settled across india in a manner which preserves the character/culture of NE. Wether this is done by a policy or less intrusive measures is something which GOI needs to seriously look into.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 12 Dec 2019 21:29

Please get your data correct before you discuss issues. Except Tripura (which had a long standing Bengali community that was invited to settle by their King long before partition) Bengali/Bdeshi Hindus have not altered the demography of any NE states. Places like Shillong had Bengali Hindu communities since at least the British period. Only Tripura has been affected where the large Bengali Hindu minority have become a big majority due to post-partition events. The CAB has ensured that they cannot settle in tribal areas of Tripura. As for Assam please get the numbers right. Of the 1.9 million NRC illegals only 5 lakh 40 thousand are Bdeshi Hindu. That is a very small number for Assam which has a legal population of 31 million. Most Bdeshi Hindus settle in Bengali dominant areas like Kachar in Assam (previously part of Sylhet - a Bengali area), Tripura and WB. Even then if the Assamese are worried govt can mandate that no "future" refugee will settle in the NE. They can do so by an amendment or by extending the autonomous areas of Assam (which are kept out of CAB) to cover most areas except Kachar. We Bengalies will be happy if they settle in WB where the demography will then improve.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Dec 2019 21:40

RT.com reports: MAD a bit late with the CashMore solution in Assom?

Protests over a bill giving fast track Indian citizenship to non-Muslims have engulfed the state of Assam. The government responded with a redeployment of troops, curfews, and a suspension of internet services.
The protests in the northeastern state turned violent on Wednesday night after the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) was passed by the Indian parliament – now one presidential signature short of becoming law. People targeted the homes of high-ranking members of the ruling BJP party, who they accuse of discriminating against Muslims.
The government introduced of a 24-hour suspension of mobile internet services in some parts of Assam, which was ordered on Wednesday to prevent attempts to “inflame passions” through social media.


New Delhi says the CAB is necessary to protect persecuted minorities from Muslim-majority Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan - Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jain, and Parsis. It offers them an easy way to obtain Indian citizenship. The bill does not include Muslims in the six religious groups – the fact that prompted Muslims in Assam to voice their anger.

Tensions in Assam have grown rapidly over the week, with protesters switching from burning copies of the loathed piece of legislation to burning tires and cars. After the Wednesday night outburst, which happened in defiance of a curfew, the government in New Delhi sent troops from other parts of India. The troops restored order in the state capital, Guwahati, but protests continued on Thursday in other places.


Good news is that polis are not pussyfooting. Lathi-charge b4 the comms blackout..... good roads coming up in Arunachal.


Gaurav Kashyap Dutta @AyeAyeAllMen

I apparently have only an hour before they jam our internet. Since the national media won't show it, here are a few pictures from today's protest outside the Assam Secretariat, right before they started using water cannon & lathicharging us. Please spread the word that I am a piece of sh1t.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 12 Dec 2019 21:45, edited 1 time in total.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1295
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 12 Dec 2019 21:43

Reposting what I posted earlier. I am genuinely puzzled. Hence the repeat request.
Why are critics of the CAB saying that it is violative of Article 14 of the Constitution? The Constitution is a foundational law that people of India enacted to say that we as people of a nation will enact such laws and be governed by it as are in consonance with the Constitution. So it is clearly meant to apply to Indians. No person who is not an Indian can claim that the principle of equality before the law should apply to him/her. There is a reason why the Preamble of the Constitution says, 'We the people of India .....

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 12 Dec 2019 21:46

Just implement the sixth schedule areas (Autonomous areas) expansion in Assam and problem will get resolved.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Dec 2019 21:46

Because One Community and their pantankarayas believe in the notion that India is created so that

jsiko jitna chaahiye
kaat-kaat le jayiye

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Dec 2019 21:48

RT.com continues:

The volatile situation also caused a disruption in traffic after several airlines canceled their Thursday and Friday flights to and from cities in Assam, including Guwahati, Dibrugarh, and Jorha. Similar cancelations were announced by train services in the state.
Prime Minister Modi addressed the disgruntled residents of Assam, saying they have nothing to worry about. “No one can take away your rights, unique identity and beautiful culture. It will continue to flourish and grow,” he tweeted.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 21:49

I don't know the exact numbers but if we are to go by Supratik saars numbers, "illegal" Bangladshi Hindus as detected by the last NRC, doesn't make much of a difference to the Assam's pop mix as it stands today.

One arrangement, as I have suggested before, would to let the current lot be but confined them to only Bengali areas by making appropriate executive/legislative provisions at the same time ensuring by law no further settlement. Any new arrival will have a choice of Delhi or rest of India. Delhi is anyway a melting pot and should have no concerns on new arrivals.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 21:51

Supratik wrote:Just implement the sixth schedule areas (Autonomous areas) expansion in Assam and problem will get resolved.

That has been promised. Perhaps they should have fast-tracked that too along with the bill.

Modi/Shah & Hemant B Sarma are seasoned politicos. Was there a complacency at the top?

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 12 Dec 2019 21:52

They are not worried about current numbers but future refugees. Best thing to do is to extend sixth schedule to rest of Assam barring Bengali areas like Kachar region.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 12 Dec 2019 21:57

NRC numbers for Assam.

Prospective population without NRC about 35.5 million. 31 million legal resident. 2.5 million have not applied. They have either gone back to Bdesh or migrated to other parts of India. 1.9 million declared illegal. Break-up is 5.5 lakh Bdeshi Hindu, 1 lakh Assamese, 1 lakh Nepali, 1.1 million Bdeshi Muslim. Now why do they want to repeat NRC in Assam again? It is because about 2 million Bdeshi illegals have fraudulently entered the NRC list. So actual population of Assam is about 29 million. Therefore number of illegals in Assam is about 6 to 6.5 million.

Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8083
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 12 Dec 2019 21:59

khan wrote:I mean, what is preventing anyone from Pakistan or Bangladesh saying they are Hindu/Christian or whatever and claiming Indian citizenship?

Point #1, the amended Act is only going to give immediate citizenship to people who are already in India before the year 2014. Which means that enough and more wetting would have been done. And this Act is not giving away citizenship without any proper scrutiny. Earlier it took more than 11 years for even making an attempt to get citizenship. Now they have made that it would be given after five years; but that would be following all the processes. The scenario of Pakis coming in as Hindus & Christians can only happen in two cases i) spying and for causing mischief in India - they any way do that ii) to take benefits of Indian economy, jobs etc.

they could have easily done it in a less polarizing way, by recognizing minority religions

That is slightly dicey. How can India decide which are the minority religions in neighbouring countries? Here they have drafted in such a way that there is no ambiguity at all.

Even with article 370, which was well executed- the aftermath was poorly handled (in my opinion). After a few months, they should have let people vent and blow off some steam and things would have returned to normal.

The Kashmiris have time and again proved that they are not trained to vent & blow off steam in a peaceful manner. Their protests have always been provocative and violent (and with a religious mindset). Trying to pacify them would not have worked out. But look at things right now. Every one has forgotten Kashmir and moved on. The Kashmiris too have started to smell coffee and now indulging in more appropriate pastimes (like doing a meaningful job etc.).

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 12 Dec 2019 22:02

ANI@ANI
Lok Sabha passes the Central Sanskrit Universities Bill, 2019.

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1457
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kati » 12 Dec 2019 22:07

Prem Kumar wrote:We should come up with a Block, Tag & Evict program to address illegal immigration

Block: border fencing, giving license to BSF to shoot smugglers, UAVs etc
Tag: identify illegals via NRC, biometrics, AI, announcing bounties to people to identify illegals etc
Evict: refugee camps (staging areas before they are sent to Bangladesh), buy-off Bangladeshi border guards to inform us of infiltration activity

We can announce aid packages to Bangladesh, weapon sales, infra loans etc to Bangladesh, subject to on-the-ground action in stopping infiltration & accepting deportees


Saar,
if you get a chance then go and visit the border areas.
It is a lucrative business for many people, especially peacefool ones to help/run the human smuggling business.
An "unofficial" policy can be introduced where successful tips for illegal encroachers can be rewarded - for both the security personnel and the civilians. And, rotate BSF units routinely and frequently. They get wined and dined by the local mafias.

Many many moons ago I suggested inducting more NE tribal youths in BSF specifically for guarding the Bangla border. They have a genuine will to prevent the illegal migrants to protect their own area.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Dec 2019 22:16

nandakumar wrote:Reposting what I posted earlier. I am genuinely puzzled. Hence the repeat request.
Why are critics of the CAB saying that it is violative of Article 14 of the Constitution? The Constitution is a foundational law that people of India enacted to say that we as people of a nation will enact such laws and be governed by it as are in consonance with the Constitution. So it is clearly meant to apply to Indians. No person who is not an Indian can claim that the principle of equality before the law should apply to him/her. There is a reason why the Preamble of the Constitution says, 'We the people of India .....

1. Rhetoric mostly but frustration too.

2. Mislead people and provoke them to violence.

3. Signalling the furrin masters to reign Modi by setting the agenda and narrative. Notice how promptly the USCIRF sanction recommendation came. Who do you think provides them the signal and the material to make their case? These very fellows who have been shouting violation of Article 14, 15 & 21 and what not.

It is not one or the other but all of the above at the same time. A perfect example would be turdesai. He simultaneously is frustrated, misleading, provoking and implicitly calling for global action against India by his rhetoric.

manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2522
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby manjgu » 12 Dec 2019 22:29

Supratik...i will not contest numbers provided by you. 1) the ahom people have little faith in the numbers...talk to a avg ahom and he will tell u how people have bought their way out of illegal list ... agents had sprung up for this activity. irrespective of the numbers, their is not enough land, resources etc and there is a genuine sense of unease, angst at the changing landscape of assam and NE. 2) if indeed the numbers are so miniscule , how can fires start all over india if they are spread out across india? there is not even an iota of smoke at the countless refugees in our major towns/cities even as of today. 3) a non welcoming atmosphere for mullah immigrants will have to be created espicially in NE/Bdesh border. i hope we can tide over the present crisis with minimum casualties. pains me to see a mild people like ahom being shot/killed and fighting the indian state machinery.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 12 Dec 2019 22:47

I have examined and studied the demographic data. In my opinion the original number of 4.1 million illegal was correct. I suspect Congressis are behind the fraud that happened between 2018-2019. Only 2 million people are left to be detected. 2.5 million have already left or not applied. 1.7 million are under appeal. NRC has been successful and will be even more successful once the rest 2 million are identified. My guess is that a lot of propaganda by Congressis and other vested interests are going on in Assam and the BJP hasn't been able to present the real picture to the Assamese people. If the agitation is about future migration then best thing to do is to extend and implement sixth schedule.

vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3255
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vera_k » 12 Dec 2019 23:04

Hugely encouraging aspects about the Citizenship Amendment Bill -

1. Indian citizenship is underlined.
2. Top leadership is on record and on the case that this affects non-Indians seeking Indian citizenship. Does not affect Indian citizens. Very different from previous episodes of religious conflict in India which were between Indian citizens.
3. Of course the Left is outraged. Having open borders has been an article of faith on the Left, IMO driven predominantly by the need to reduce recurring conflict in Europe.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10788
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vayutuvan » 12 Dec 2019 23:52

pankajS ji, JNU became shishupala. courts are the Vishnu chakra.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14740
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Dec 2019 00:11

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/statu ... 6239311879
Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul

Big. Puppet Prime Minister of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Raja Farooq Haider announces that he might be the last Prime Minister of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir which Pakistan calls Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK). He said this at Supreme Court Bar function with 'full responsibility'.

A 370 abrogation was a simple exercise but its impact is being felt beyond the Indian borders and will have global consequences.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4373
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 13 Dec 2019 00:25

Supratik wrote:They are not worried about current numbers but future refugees. Best thing to do is to extend sixth schedule to rest of Assam barring Bengali areas like Kachar region.


If I understand correctly, the CAB has a cutoff date of all arrivals before 2014. It doesn't address future refugees. Am I wrong?

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Dec 2019 00:37

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1205147826239311879
Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul

Big. Puppet Prime Minister of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Raja Farooq Haider announces that he might be the last Prime Minister of Pakistan Occupied Rapist Kashmir. He said this at Supreme Court Bar function with 'full responsibility'.

A 370 abrogation was a simple exercise but its impact is being felt beyond the Indian borders and will have global consequences.


This means that Pakistan is about to abrogate 073 Farticle of Pakistan Constitution. Oh, wait! POrKis do not HAVE any rights, and Pakjabis already occupy POrK at will. Maybe all of POrK will now be declared to be land owned ONLY by Paki Jarnails. Makes it easier for NaMo to order IAF to improve parking there.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 13 Dec 2019 00:41

No you are right but on the ground BJP unable to communicate and I am pretty sure rest is due to Congress.

mmasand
BRFite
Posts: 711
Joined: 19 May 2009 23:46

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby mmasand » 13 Dec 2019 01:57

KLNMurthy wrote:
Supratik wrote:They are not worried about current numbers but future refugees. Best thing to do is to extend sixth schedule to rest of Assam barring Bengali areas like Kachar region.


If I understand correctly, the CAB has a cutoff date of all arrivals before 2014. It doesn't address future refugees. Am I wrong?


Yes the cut off date is 31/12/2004. The act as it stands prior and after the amendment does not classify refugees, anyone legally in the country for 5 years is eligible to apply for citizenship. To close the loop, India should consider signing the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which will create a classification for potential refugees in the future and currently in the country after 2014. Hypothetically if those weeded out after a nationwide NRC exercise have arrived after 2014, they will have to petition immigration courts to be granted residency.

Sadly the govt has been very poor in its communication and media perception allowing for this space to be occupied by those who have a divisive agenda. The information minister is only good for applause and wide smiles in the lower house.

Jay
BRFite
Posts: 296
Joined: 24 Feb 2005 18:24
Location: Gods Country
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Jay » 13 Dec 2019 03:18

Message to mods. Can we have a separate discussion thread for CAB/NRC? I can foresee plenty on posts discussing these topics and events related to them.

banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 351
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 13 Dec 2019 03:26

The number of new citizens thru CAB will be minuscule and are not enough to make a vote bank.
But if there are organizations that rehabilitate them from the NE states to WB then the Assamese and NE states will be happy.

WB elections are coming up. What will Mama-turd do? reject these Bengalis ? This can become a pretty potent issue.

CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 13 Dec 2019 03:37

khan wrote:IMO, this CAB thing is another big mistake.



KhanJi, please read this article by Tarun Vijay. I wonder if you will reconsider your opinion as to whether CAB is mistake or CAB is anti-Indian Muslim

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/citi ... 191212.htm


Even with article 370, which was well executed- the aftermath was poorly handled (in my opinion). After a few months, they should have let people vent and blow off some steam and things would have returned to normal. But they tried to over-control it.



I have to vehemently but respectfully disagree with you. And I don't mean to generalize, but lets cut through the chase and be honest unlike white Bahadurs like Dexter Filkins and his concubine Rana Ayyub

Kashmir Muslims who are whining about loss of 370, an article of the Indian constitution, never ever swore by it.

On the contrary, they desecrated it by colluding with Pakis in demanding secession.

They gave aid and succor to Paki terrorists resulting in the deaths of 1000s and 1000s of our brave jawans and officers who doing their duty in protecting India's sovereignty from being invaded and snatched by Paki barbarians.

And as far as so called 'mainstream' ass holes like Farooq Abdullah, Mufti etc, less the better. They were not only traitors, but corrupt scum bags. They speciously claimed adherence to Indian constitution, but were singing the Paki tune. They wanted Indian goodies but love and succor from Pakis. They wanted 370 because that would mean quasi secession and they get to be Paki sultans while spending Indian money.

And last but not the least, to borrow a phrase from Jonah Goldhagen, "Hitler's willing executioners" to describe ordinary Germans in the genocide of Jews, so also KMs are "Paki's willing executioners" for the ethnic cleansing of Hindus from the Kashmir valley

We still live in a colonial world, where the above narrative will never be said in the halls of power in the white west: media and govt, simply because SDRE Hindus, democratic and growing in stature are anathema to the white Christian worldview.

So they come up fraudulent specious narratives on how Kashmir Muslims are deprived of whatspp post 370 as 'human rights' violation while side stepping the devastating losses India has suffered at the hands of these bloody traitors, and why India has sound reasonable reasons for depriving those bigots with modern technology like Internet which they use to bite the hand that feeds them.

I am sick and tired of the world shedding tears for Islamic extremists in Kashmir and painting India as the villain.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4673
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Cain Marko » 13 Dec 2019 03:53

khan wrote:IMO, this CAB thing is another big mistake.

I mean, what is preventing anyone from Pakistan or Bangladesh saying they are Hindu/Christian or whatever and claiming Indian citizenship? And even GOI they wanted to go this, they could have easily done it in a less polarizing way, by recognizing minority religions & not recognizing minority sects of majority religions (Shia’s, Ahmed isn’t etc) as a persecuted class.

There are ways to do this without blatantly and unnecessarily upsetting people.

Even with article 370, which was well executed- the aftermath was poorly handled (in my opinion). After a few months, they should have let people vent and blow off some steam and things would have returned to normal. But they tried to over-control it.

Demonetization turned out to be a futile exercise since all the back money ended up being laundered. It would have been far more effective to ban higher denomination notes.

GST was rushed out without anyone working out the details for SME’s who are having major cash-flow issues because of the way the payment cycle works.

All these things I mentioned, protecting minorities, article 370, cleaning up black money and GST - I support!!!

But the execution has been HORRIBLE to the point where with this latest move (CAB), I am thinking CAB was done in the most inflammatory way possible to whip up religious sentiments and cover up for a weak economy. As mentioned earlier, the same thing could have been done in a much less polarizing way.

I know there are many people who are fond of Modi here - but he is losing me. Friends, Religion is the last refuge of the scoundrel.


Some interesting points raised here. I have to agree that execution of some of these issues has not been the best esp. the demonetization piece. 370 I thought was done well. Only thing is India should have launched a massive publicity operation coopting Western liberals by spending some extra $$ss. Time to reduce TSP influence in such corridors, and I believe it is just a matter of who pays more. Can't see why India can't outbid TSP here!

As far as CAB goes, I'm not sure what the message is but I think MAD mustn't have seen any other way out - they did it out of sheer desperation because of the demographic engineering increasingly coming to a tipping point. Having said this, I'd rather have them focus on UCC instead.

Wonder why the tribals, natives of Assam are so quiet. GOI and state govt. should have had them on the streets celebrating in opposition to those who are currently trying to destabilize the region.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4673
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Cain Marko » 13 Dec 2019 03:59

CRamS wrote:I am sick and tired of the world shedding tears for Islamic extremists in Kashmir and painting India as the villain.

I squarely blame successive GOIs for this including the current dispensation. It is all the more galling considering how media savvy Modi has shown himself to be. They should have taken a proactive stance in sponsoring anti TSP narratives worldwide. But instead have taken a rather pacifist approach, which is ridiculous.

The bottomline, the way I see it, is a matter of outbidding TSP agents in corridors of media. Let us make no bones about this - the MSM rents its pen and ink to the highest bidder and TSP is small fry when it comes to rolling out the moolah (at least in comparison to India). Time for GOI to open up coffers with delicious prospects favorable people in key places.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Dec 2019 04:21

I think GOI has handled 370 extremely well. The whinos have gone quiet, more or less. The CAB of course amplifies the noise, with 'proof' that the GOI is anti-Muslim. It is a pretty daring Bill, that for the first time in the history of Free India, casts Muslim identity as a DIS-advantage in ANYthing. Until now it has been all "what's mine is mine, and what's yours is mine". Now India just has to ride out the temporary ro-dho, just like after May 1998.

If I may say so, both 370 and CAB are based on the NM-AS confidence learned from Guj. Note the relative peace there, following jhapad of '02. Ended a decade of rising nonsense where a school teacher was lynched in Godhra for raising the TriColor on Aug. 15! I wonder what the situation is in Godhra these days but I suspect that there is a chastened realization that there are consequences to pakiness.

OTOH, the net effect of Pakis' yelling has been to hold a mirror to themselves. I think sentiment on TSP has turned more negative over the past year than at any other time except maybe 2002. Now the Afghanistan defeat is staring Republicans in the face, and they are coming out with their frustrations about the Paki role in that.

Even the yelling about the CAB is ironically, that "India has emulated Pakistan". This is vicarious slapping. India does something, and the worst that the whinos can say is to say India is EMULATING PAKISTAN. You can't buy this with any amount of Image Consultancy.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 13 Dec 2019 04:48, edited 1 time in total.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: SRoy and 44 guests