2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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manish singh
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby manish singh » 14 Dec 2019 12:30

Why is the government not calming the concerns of North East by proposing that the persecuted Hindus would be distributed across the country so that Assam or any one state doesn't need to bear all the burden?

dada
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby dada » 14 Dec 2019 12:31

Concept of Tipping Point
=====================
In sociology, a point in time when a group or many group members rapidly and dramatically changes its behavior by widely adopting a previously rare practice.

Example:
Most white families remained in neighborhood as long as comparative number of black families remained very small. But, at a certain point, when too many black families arrived the remaining white families move out en masse in a process known as white flight. This phenomena was called "tipping point”

10% of a Population Rule
=====================
When just 10% of the population holds an unshakable belief their belief will always be adopted by the majority of people who simply change their beliefs if their last two social interactions agreed with a new one. (Note that bangladeshis/muslims have already crossed 35% in both Assam & WB)
This concept was applied to the study of propagation of populations in an unbalanced ecosystem.

In Physics : adding a small amount of weight to a balanced object until the additional weight caused the object to suddenly and completely topple or tip
The phrase has extended beyond its original meaning and been applied to any process in which, beyond a certain point, the rate of the process increases dramatically. This concept was also applied to study of phase transitions in alloys.

Similar Phenomena
================
Dramatic change in governments such as during Arab Spring or regime transitions belong to that paradoxical class of events which are inevitable but not predictable. Other examples are bank runs, currency inflations, strikes, migrations, riots, revolutions In retrospect, such events are explainable, even overdetermined. In prospect, however, their timing and character are impossible to anticipate. Such events seem to come closer and closer but do not occur, even when all the conditions are ripe—until suddenly they do.

What should India do ?
===================
India should keep atleast 1 dozen nuclear/chemical/biological bombs ready for bangladesh for a qayamat type of situation that will arise around 2045-50 & develop armed forces with the required will to execute it. No mercy.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2019 12:36

Katare wrote:
chetak wrote:
assam beediland border saar.

the twitter link gives you the handle.

Also, at many places along the bengal and assam border, the cattle smugglers use telescopic cranes to swing live cattle from India across the border fencing as well. Most of the cattle are stolen from other Indian states and transported to the beedi border for sale to the beedis


There is no information, just music playing on the video. Looks fishy


OK

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 13:35

manish singh wrote:Why is the government not calming the concerns of North East by proposing that the persecuted Hindus would be distributed across the country so that Assam or any one state doesn't need to bear all the burden?


There is the problem. Significant section of the people who will get the citizenship via CAB has already resided in those places for close to 50 years now. Remember the cut off date for NRC was 1971?

It is neither easy nor fair to ask them to move out after they have literally spent their life and spread their roots there.

Nihat
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Nihat » 14 Dec 2019 13:39

The Modi government needs to be careful with the direction it is taking. I fully support Modi ji want him to continue to be our leader for the forseable future, but there is a clearly palpable shift in the mood of the people that this government has its priorities set in the wrong direction while the nation is going in another. The BJP has lost a number of states lately and it would beehove the administration to focus on some of the issues which are frankly really worrying the middle class people like myself.

Protests across the north east are not doing anything to improve perception and nose diving growth along with increasing unemployment is increasing frustration levels against the government.

NRC and CAB are all fine but there is a time and place and manner to do it, so that it does not create a negative preception. Frankly, I'm very concerned that the current manner of doing things will slowly erode the prime minister's credibility and I do not want to see the day that we are ruled by another pseudo secular grease monkey.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 13:39

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/status/1205421983413850112
Priyamvada Gopal @PriyamvadaGopal

It is time we started understanding the distinction between formal democracy (which is only majoritarianism) and substantive informed consent democracy (non-existent for the most part)
So now the jockers are thinking of a democracy that is based on "informed consent" whatever that means. :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/NAN_DINI_/status/12 ... 3650271232
Nandini @NAN_DINI_

Yup ! Purge the uninformed plebs !
She gets it.

A government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites. Some democracy this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -2020.html
PIERS MORGAN: Boris Johnson's triumph proves democracy-denying radical socialists backed by self-righteous celebrities on Twitter are electoral poison – and if Democrats fall for the same delusion, Trump will decimate them in 2020
Of course, the one thing uniting all these stars was their utter refusal to accept democracy. They just couldn't deal with the simple fact that their side lost.

So, they tried to overturn the result of the Referendum, and unsurprisingly, they've now lost all over again.

If there's one thing the British people hate, and Americans for that matter, it is snotty rich celebrities telling them they're idiots and their vote shouldn't count.
Not just celebrities but all leftist and buddhu-jeevi have the same mindset. Beepul are idiots and their vote shouldn't count hence their new "enlightened" position of "informed consent".

Essentially, a government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 13:45

Some wil ask how fair it is for Assamese so let me put my analysis here.

Again, this is going to be controversial and may appear like "hate" but it is not. I apologise in advance if I hurt any feeling.

If you follow the demands, Assamese event wanted to shift the cut off date to 1951 for NRC!!!! Because this is nothing different than what shiv sena did in mumbai against "madrasi", "bihari" etc, just pan state level.

The entire CAB and NRC hungama was and is an attempt to purify Assam ethnically by throwing out all/most bengali speaking folks in some or other pretext. They took advantage of the general anti-muslim sentiment in india and used the threat of BD muslims to implement NRC. Now they want to throw the hindus on threat to culture pretext.

As far as the threat to local culture goes, it is true but the game is unfortunately lost for them a long time back. Now they are trying to crawl back into it by threat of violence. Please check the percentage even during 1947 and you will find very very high percentages of Bengali folks there and lower concentration of "bhumiputras". Bengali speaking and Santhali folks have been living in Assam and North East for generations. Same as Tamils in Srilanka.

The general backward educational condition and lacadesical work attitude of the largely tribal population in Assam and North East has caused a large number of outsiders to move to Assam and NE for at least last 2 centuries. People from Bengal were the significant chunk due to close proximity. The Bengalis took over most of the clerical and commercial work, Santhalis were brought in as tea garden labour. Please check their percentage in 1947 itself.

Now since independence, obviously internal migration has increased all over India. Most of business in Kolkata is own by Marwadis. Most in Mumbai are by Gujjus. Most in Delhi by Panjus. And so on. So, the percentage of Assamese have gone down further. Now they just want to throw out all these outsiders and takeover those business/property that are left over as something ready made.

How fair this ask is something you guys decide.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby madhu » 14 Dec 2019 14:06

After seeing the kind of gathering, protest, vandalism in Assam, Bengal, kerala against CAB, I am now believe that there are more illegals than I had imagined.

I hope modi and shah has gamed it well. They have planned for this extent. Hope they first checkmate Congress which i don't know where their loyalty lies.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 14:10

Nihat wrote:The Modi government needs to be careful with the direction it is taking. I fully support Modi ji want him to continue to be our leader for the forseable future, but there is a clearly palpable shift in the mood of the people that this government has its priorities set in the wrong direction while the nation is going in another. The BJP has lost a number of states lately and it would beehove the administration to focus on some of the issues which are frankly really worrying the middle class people like myself.

Protests across the north east are not doing anything to improve perception and nose diving growth along with increasing unemployment is increasing frustration levels against the government.

NRC and CAB are all fine but there is a time and place and manner to do it, so that it does not create a negative preception. Frankly, I'm very concerned that the current manner of doing things will slowly erode the prime minister's credibility and I do not want to see the day that we are ruled by another pseudo secular grease monkey.

There is NO right time to do an exercise like this. The best time, and I have written this before, was around 1960 when the population transfer/migration was almost complete and EVERY one in India, Hindus, Muslims and others, would have qualified to be called legal residents of India without any documentation. No illegals therefore no burden on anyone nor any tension. Could have been carried from state to state stretched over 2-3 years easily in phases. Just like election officials, someone would have visited homes all across the country and enrolled every one in. We are paying the price of lethargy.

Every days delay aggravates the problem further and makes it messier to unravel. So we have a bad choice of getting it done ASAP and a worse choice of postponing it for future.

IMHO, the time choosen by Modi/Shah duo, considering all the variable at play, looks like the best time in Modi's 2nd term. Just as a general rule, parties get the toughest parts done early in the term so that by the time national elections arrive things have settled down. There are many other parameters that I could list but won't for multiple reasons. I have hinted at some in my earlier posts stretching back 6 months, even before this latest initiative was announced.

As for Modi's credibility, it has never been higher and you don't have to believe me but check with polling agencies. State elections are fought and won or lost on local issues and I would not read too much into that.

There will be bumps on the road and there will be doubts and anxiety just like many had following the revocation of A.370. However, with time, those worries too would fade and normality restored. We have a risky 2 months ahead to be followed by about a year of worry after which the clouds would clear. By the time 2024, I expect Modi to return for another term with a larger majority than the last one.
Last edited by pankajs on 14 Dec 2019 14:14, edited 1 time in total.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 14:12

madhu wrote:After seeing the kind of gathering, protest, vandalism in Assam, Bengal, kerala against CAB, I am now believe that there are more illegals than I had imagined.

I hope modi and shah has gamed it well. They have planned for this extent. Hope they first checkmate Congress which i don't know where their loyalty lies.


As a result of not getting their "free lunch" by throwing out these "outsiders", Assam and NE will vote for non BJP in all the coming elections.

Soon you will see a representative of Muslim interest in power in Assam, directly via Badruddin Ajmal gang and indirectly via Cong.

That would give you the idea that how aligned Assamese are to dharmic indic cause. Already the narrative is that the Assamese are not polarized on religion but want all "illegals" out!!! Even if that "illegal" is a Hindu living in Assam for close to half a century.

As I said, NRC is the gift that will keep on giving.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 14 Dec 2019 14:18

Can't we assure assamese that BD hindus wil be relocated to other parts of the country? They need to understand that not having CAB and NRC is more suicidal to their "identity".

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 14:29

Karthik S wrote:Can't we assure assamese that BD hindus wil be relocated to other parts of the country? They need to understand that not having CAB and NRC is more suicidal to their "identity".


Relocating lakhs of people out of state who have spent generations? 50 years == 2 generations.

The last 2 such instances in India are Migration of Kashmiri pandits and 1947 partition.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 14 Dec 2019 14:35

pankajs wrote:
Nihat wrote:The Modi government needs to be careful with the direction it is taking. I fully support Modi ji want him to continue to be our leader for the forseable future, but there is a clearly palpable shift in the mood of the people that this government has its priorities set in the wrong direction while the nation is going in another. The BJP has lost a number of states lately and it would beehove the administration to focus on some of the issues which are frankly really worrying the middle class people like myself.

Protests across the north east are not doing anything to improve perception and nose diving growth along with increasing unemployment is increasing frustration levels against the government.

NRC and CAB are all fine but there is a time and place and manner to do it, so that it does not create a negative preception. Frankly, I'm very concerned that the current manner of doing things will slowly erode the prime minister's credibility and I do not want to see the day that we are ruled by another pseudo secular grease monkey.

There is NO right time to do an exercise like this. The best time, and I have written this before, was around 1960 when the population transfer/migration was almost complete and EVERY one in India, Hindus, Muslims and others, would have qualified to be called legal residents of India without any documentation. No illegals therefore no burden on anyone nor any tension. Could have been carried from state to state stretched over 2-3 years easily in phases. Just like election officials, someone would have visited homes all across the country and enrolled every one in. We are paying the price of lethargy.

Every days delay aggravates the problem further and makes it messier to unravel. So we have a bad choice of getting it done ASAP and a worse choice of postponing it for future.

IMHO, the time choosen by Modi/Shah duo, considering all the variable at play, looks like the best time in Modi's 2nd term. Just as a general rule, parties get the toughest parts done early in the term so that by the time national elections arrive things have settled down. There are many other parameters that I could list but won't for multiple reasons. I have hinted at some in my earlier posts stretching back 6 months, even before this latest initiative was announced.

As for Modi's credibility, it has never been higher and you don't have to believe me but check with polling agencies. State elections are fought and won or lost on local issues and I would not read too much into that.

There will be bumps on the road and there will be doubts and anxiety just like many had following the revocation of A.370. However, with time, those worries too would fade and normality restored. We have a risky 2 months ahead to be followed by about a year of worry after which the clouds would clear. By the time 2024, I expect Modi to return for another term with a larger majority than the last one.


I agree. Hard decisions have to be taken because the existence of nation is at stake in long run. I had asked a question a few days ago on this forum and got only 1 answer. It is worth reflecting on the question again :

Is it possible to have a stable nation with more than 10 % muslim population ? Has any nation in the world achieved it ? What happens when you have 20 % ?

A nation should take whatever decisions it takes after clearly analysing the fundamental factors. In India's case those fundamental factors require an understanding of ideology of Islam, how many people practice it and how strongly they believe in it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2019 14:49

Image

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 14:58

For some folks who think that Assamese are agitating against bengali hindus who have come in now to save their culture; here is some historical facts.

Assam was annexed and merged with bengal by the british in 1826. Yes, almost 200 years back.

In April 1831, the Government of Bengal made Bengali, in
place of Persian, the Court language of Assam on the ground that it was very difficult
and too costly to replace Persian scribes who were on leave or who left the service.
The services of the Bengalis immediately became indispensable in the Anglovernacular and vernacular schools, since school teachers were not available in
adequate numbers in any case to impart lessons in the Bengali language, which had
since become the medium of instruction. The social dominance of Bengali-speaking
people in Assam, Orissa, Chotanagpur and parts of Bihar was reflected in the
dominance of their languages.

Thus, with the advent of the British, the whole situation rapidly changed. The British
needed the services of ‘native’ bureaucrats to run the administration. The people who,
at that time, were intimately acquainted with the British administrative method were
those of Bengal, the immediate neighbor of Assam. On the other hand, in first decade
of this century the Bengali middle class had already produced a big surplus of
educated youth who could not hope to be employed in their narrow provincial set up.
They sought their fortunes in the neighboring states of Orissa, Bihar and Assam where
their assertion of cultural superiority exacerbated local resentment at their success in
finding jobs. To help the British in consolidating their power in Assam, came with
them, a large number of Bengalis who gradually own their prestige as efficient
‘amlahs’ or bureaucrats.

In 1837, under the Act of XXIX passed by the President of the Council of India the
vernacular language of a district was directed to be used in the courts. Abolition of
Persia from the court was highly appreciated. Although for more than ten years after
the annexation of the province, Assamese was the language of the courts, as a part of
the Presidency of Bengal, Bengali language was introduced in the courts of
Assam.

Now taking them out and resettling in other states of India?????

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 15:02

If you really want to know who inflamed this Assamese vs Bengali issue, read on:

Initial protests against the government’s language policy came from the American
Baptist Missionaries
and the educated Assamese elite section. Soon after their arrival
into Assam, the missionaries realized that they need to use the vernacular medium to
spread Christianity. Hence, they began to strongly espouse the cause of the Assamese
language as the rightful medium of instruction. Apart from printing all their religious
The Assamese Language Issue: An Analysis from Historical Perspective 129
material in Assamese, they made fervent pleas in defense of the Assamese language
through the Orunodoi. Primarily intended for the propagation of Christianity
Arunodai contained informative knowledge of science, history, geography certain
regional and national news and views. Disseminating western thoughts and learning,
for over twenty years, it inspired the younger generation of the Assamese and paved
the way for an intellectual awakening. The untiring efforts of the
missionaries in asserting the separate identity of the Assamese language was indeed
commendable and they received wholehearted support from the Assamese
intelligentsia, whose chief spokesperson was Anandaram Dhekial Phukan, followed
by a number of petitions and memoranda to the government.

Quoted for here

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 15:06

Again, my post is not to deny people in Assam their right.

However, I am just pointing out that bengali speaking folks have lived in Assam for close to centuries now and it is not as simple as some of the folks here think.

There is no assuaging people of Assam that immigrants would be resettled outside.

Because for people of assam, anyone who speaks bengali is an immigrant and threat to their culture and way of life.

And these bengali speaking folks are living there for two centuries now and constitutes over 30% of the population.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 15:26

pankajs wrote:If the visuals on who exactly is protesting are clear then it will result in a win for Modi/BJP amongst the constituency that matter to Modi/BJP. L&O will be restore sooner or later with heavy hand or a light tough. Theek hai.

pankajs wrote:You play soft and Modi wins.
You play hard and Modi wins.

The way Modi has setup the political game such that he wins with every turn. Theek hai.

https://twitter.com/sheela2010/status/1 ... 4221556736
Sheela Bhatt @sheela2010

Feeling of déjà vu. @narendramodi may use criticism to advantage as he did as CM.After reading all shades of analysis of CAB and watching protests gives feeling that Modi-@AmitShah has hit their political target.Even in depressing economy BJP-RSS may consolidate like never before

I don't remember her as a Modi/BJP inclined commentator and she has followed Modi from his time in Gujarat. It wasn't too difficult to understand the "political" impact if one really thought about it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 14 Dec 2019 15:37

Here are the statistics from 1951 census of assam available here

Distribution .according to language in' Assam
Number of
speakers
Name of mother
tongue 1951 1931
~
Hindi 335,688 483,905
Bengali •• 1,447,075 1,699,456
Assamese .. 4,972,493 1,993,106
Abor 2,167 13,874
Miri 57,623 80,831
Boro-Bodo-Group ~56,140 529,314
Mikir 130,581 126,152
NagaGroup 209,954 188,050
Kiki-Chin-Group 209,553 202,876
Khasi 292,923 231,690
Manipuri 89,433 89,066
Tripura
Othen 567,997 706,136
Total •• 8,771,627 6,344,456

Now u can see that in 1951 itself, Bengalis were 20% of Assamese population.

Also if you compare the numbers between 1931 and 1951 you would see 2 trends, Bengali population has decreased and Assamese population had increase abnormally.
Where from these additonal Assamese came given Assam is their home state? How come they became 2.5 times their number in just 20 years?

Most of the demographers were of the opinion that lot of Bengali muslims, in the immediate aftermath of bloody partition, actually filled up the census form with Assamese as their first language to ensure they remain in Assam and not pushed into bangladesh. (Background: Neheru Liaqat pact was in place then and people had freedom to still move to either country and push and pull were going on. A large number of Bengali muslims didn't want to leave their land in Assam and go to Bangladesh and one of the trick they employed was to put Assamese as their mother tongue instead on Bangla, they changed that in census conducted in later years)

But even this aside, it gives the gentle rakshaks an idea that how hollow the threat to Assamese culture slogan really is. This is in 1951.
Last edited by Picklu on 14 Dec 2019 15:56, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 15:55

https://twitter.com/ArvindKejriwal/stat ... 1689286656
Arvind Kejriwal @ArvindKejriwal

Happy to share that @indianpac is coming on-board with us. Welcome aboard!
PK has signed up with Khujali for Delhi.

https://twitter.com/KanchanGupta/status ... 4858394624
Kanchan Gupta @KanchanGupta

Naga Students Federation has called a six-hour shutdown in Nagaland to protest #CAB law. Nagaland is exempted from this law. But this is the season of absurdities and violence instigated by mainstream media #MSM.
Media by instigating violence becomes complicit. This cannot be healthy.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 16:18

Another of those "If my aunt had a duck .." kind of fart ... The liberals will not take any responsibility and will do no course correction except to wine and vent and call voters idiots.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/stat ... 0146004995
The Washington Post @washingtonpost

Analysis: If Britain had Germany’s electoral system, Boris Johnson may have lost the election
https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1205728553100333056
Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

This pgenomenon was true even when Labour had won back to back three terms. But I doubt the smart analytics team at @washingtonpost discovered it then.

Another take ...
https://twitter.com/Hiranyareta/status/ ... 2197701635
हिरण्यरेता @Hiranyareta

Rumor on the street is that many secular outfits will lose their sex/human trafficking sources once CAB & NRC are complete.

Now observe who is protesting CAB/NRC and how viciously.
Possibly CAB & NRC will disrupt the human trafficking rings but just the ring would not be able to gather the muscle power necessary to create widespread protest.

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 9434517504
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

Petitions challenging validity of #CitizenshipAmendmentAct are expected to come up for hearing before the #SupremeCourt on Dec 18. The petition by Indian Union of Muslim League (IUML) has got its plea fixed for 18th,others too are likely to be bunched up..around a dozen petitions
Last edited by pankajs on 14 Dec 2019 16:25, edited 1 time in total.

hanumadu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 14 Dec 2019 16:24

If what Prashanth Kishore's firm does is consulting for political parties, how can his firm be called 'Political Action Committee'? Doesn't PAC have a special purpose and meaning to it?
Last edited by hanumadu on 14 Dec 2019 17:19, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 16:55

Point ..

https://twitter.com/rahulroushan/status ... 7357428738
Rahul Roushan @rahulroushan

Libtards used to explain how special rights/privileges given to religious minorities despite our constitution being 'secular' was a fallout of partition and how it was even morally incumbent for India do that. Suddenly partition is no longer a factor in CAB.

https://twitter.com/SeemantiniBose/stat ... 8690516993
Initnamees @SeemantiniBose

Bjp should thank didi. She is doing a better job than bengal bjp.
Modi/Shah know their politics.

https://twitter.com/swapan55/status/1205745264255848450
Swapan Dasgupta @swapan55

Mamata Banerjee announces on TV that she won’t allow CAB to be implemented in W. Bengal. Does she mean that Hindu refugees from Bangladesh will be forcibly prevented from becoming Indian citizens? Why can’t she accept Hindu Bengalis as Indians?
Does Mumtaz think she can get away by making statements like that?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 17:33

I am not plugged into the Bengali SM universe ... FWIW

https://twitter.com/AmitDahal/status/12 ... 5909608448
Amit Dahal @AmitDahal

This has completely backfired against Mamata. The videos and photos have gone viral. Her minority appeasement image has come out again. PK was trying to hide it.
Video & Photos of rioting and mayhem in Bengal.

Cain Marko
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Cain Marko » 14 Dec 2019 18:17

Folks are taking about all sorts of viral videos that make doogh ks doodh, Pani ka Pani... Can somebody post some here? Thank you in advance.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 14 Dec 2019 18:50

For some reason, Modi/Shah are showing faith in Indian bureaucracies and believing that these will self clean. May be through rise of patriotism? How does it get cleaned? Havala networks can get one Aadhar outside India. Greens acquire any paperwork without issues. Bureaucracies are on their side.

With clamping of foreign funding, BIF is resorting to internal funding including from Hindu side. Hindu money from corruption, havala, schooling systems, etc. flows into BIF networks.

Side question would be, what about overseas Hindus that are citizens of other countries but are staunch supporters of Hindu causes? Hopefully, CAB/NRC exercise has special appreciation for them.
Last edited by darshan on 14 Dec 2019 18:56, edited 1 time in total.

Shardul
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Shardul » 14 Dec 2019 18:56

The more you apply your mind to decode each and every move of our government. The kind of planning and long term moves are being planned and excuted in phases. The way Jan Dhan yojna was prerequisite for demonitazation. Similarly CAB is prerequisite for NRC. With CAB in place and all minority of 3 countries given citizenship. Now time to go for full NRC across country. NRC will filter out all illegal ....... living in country. NRC should filter out all illegal migrants. 90% will belong to particular community remaining 10 % minority will automatically be covered under CAB. So you have the identity and nos.of most unwanted element living in this country. Then govt to decide how to control and make India more secure place for Indians irrespective of religion.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Dec 2019 18:58

Why is Nagaland exempted? It is apparently so contaminated by missionaries that it is almost gone. MAD planning something special there?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 14 Dec 2019 19:06

There should be a separate thread about how can NRC be successful by overcoming bureaucracies and be helpful post Modi era. What do localized Hindu organizations need to do to get all Hindus counted in the least painful manner? I hardly ever see any local mandir board ever discuss in their meetings about Hindu future.

INC bureaucracies will make sure that all Muslims are in and without any pain.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Shardul » 14 Dec 2019 19:06

Nagaland being Cristian majority state excluded to silence the Western press/ Govt. CAB / NRC will be treated as internal issues of Indian in most of western capital. You can't fight all at one go.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 14 Dec 2019 19:13

UlanBatori wrote:Why is Nagaland exempted? It is apparently so contaminated by missionaries that it is almost gone. MAD planning something special there?

Not just Nagaland but most NE states/areas are exempt.

Does anyone recall the online fight between BJP supporters and Kiran Majumdar Shaw of Biocon over indirect funding of a bunch of propaganda websites including the Wire?

Well ... seems that fight has triggered some change ... I think.

Image
Note.
1. The propaganda site needs 30 lakhs a month to run at the current level.
2. Indirect hint that a major source of secure funding has vanished.

The timing leads me to suspect that a bunch of donors have withdrawn from the entity created to channel funding to "independent" news/views portals. Looks like no one wants to be linked to this propaganda portal after the latest fracas.
Last edited by pankajs on 14 Dec 2019 19:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Shardul » 14 Dec 2019 19:20

Lesson regarding what can go wrong in NRC already learned during Assam NRC. So next round will be more comprehensive and stringent. Assam was test case.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 14 Dec 2019 19:37

No words yet from NM or AS on mob violence, any idea why?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 14 Dec 2019 19:38

Picklu wrote:

A few points, if I may:

Out of 1.9 mil out of NRC in assam, 1.2 mil are bengali speaking (bong+BD) hindu, 0.2 mil are non bengali hindu and 0.5 mil are Bengali speaking(bong + BD) muslim. This demographic segmentation has been widely published, so far there is no credible source disputing this. Anyone claiming otherwise based on their "own research", I would like to see any corroborating data source.

The population estimate work that was done before NRC expected around 0.55 mil BD hindu. When 1.2 mil bengali speaking hindu(double the estimated) were identified in NRC as BD hindu, it's fate were sealed on that very day because it was obvious that many genuine indian citizen (bengali speaking indian citizen hindu from Barak Valley) were tagged as illegal by the process. The number of Muslims 0.5mil were as per expectation. These 0.5 mil Muslim didn't even appeal after the first draft. Again, this has been widely published.
**********************

What is the source of your info? Please don't make up numbers on BRF. According to the Himanta Biswa Sharma the finance minster of Assam the number of Bdeshi Hindu not entering NRC is 5 lakh 40 thousand. You can also watch him speak to Rajeep on youtube where he is specifically quoting that number before a national audience. Secondly, even if the number is 1.2 million they can always apply for CAB. So what is your point?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SBajwa » 14 Dec 2019 19:39

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/status/1205421983413850112
Priyamvada Gopal @PriyamvadaGopal

It is time we started understanding the distinction between formal democracy (which is only majoritarianism) and substantive informed consent democracy (non-existent for the most part)
So now the jockers are thinking of a democracy that is based on "informed consent" whatever that means. :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/NAN_DINI_/status/12 ... 3650271232
Nandini @NAN_DINI_

Yup ! Purge the uninformed plebs !
She gets it.

A government of the elites, by the elites, for the elites. Some democracy this.


That is how it was before 1947 where in each village only few feudals had right to vote. Vote was "made" as per amount of land owned and revenue donated to British collector. No wonder the thief Mohammad Iqbal wrote this

"Jamhooriat wo tarz-e-hakoomat ha k jis mein...
Bandon ko gina jata ha, tola nahin jata..."

Democracy is such a governance where people are counted and now weighed.

For Iqbal the heaviest person meant the people with more clout and more money!!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 14 Dec 2019 19:42

Folks, I appreciate the discussion, but there is too much hairsplitting about CAB and NRC and related protests etc. Here is the important stuff:

- CAB decision has been taken after careful thought. No point second-guessing.

- NRC will come. I doubt if it will be announced nationwide in one fell swoop, more likely statewise (hopefully WB is first).

- There will be protests by the usual suspects (and some misguided Hindoos too until they see the light). Media, foreign countries, etc will predictably play their BIF roles and paint BJP in a poor light. Do not fall for this. Already I am seeing posts suggesting BJP has not managed media, has communicated poorly, etc. The same kind of posts came after any major protest/incident/state election loss in last 5 years.

- At the end of the day the Aam Janata is solidly behind Modi and Shah. People understand what they are doing and are in support.

Now, my main concern here is that a number of postors continue to treat the illegal migration problems as something that can be solved by making more rules, administrative offices, etc. It won't work. This is the learning from other countries facing illegal migration across a long land border, particularly USA. Only real solution is to reduce the influx to a trickle by sealing the border and manning it with a large force. The other steps (such as NRC, and other rules and laws to make life extremely difficult for any illegal) can then be enforced to flush out the illegals who are already here.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 14 Dec 2019 19:43

One way to look at riots is, IMs will not indulge in violence as they have nothing to loose through CAB or NRC. It's the BD Ms that's doing all the violence. Therefore, it's foreign citizens indulging in open acts of violence against a state. It's in a way invasion or war. Govt can't keep mum. Everyday govt stays quiet, the mob takes the state for granted more.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 14 Dec 2019 19:43

Regarding mob violence in WB it will actually backfire on Mamata. The reason why she is opposing NRC is known. Her vote bank breakup is 25% M, 20% H (total 45%), BJP almost entirely H so 40% H i.e. the majority of the H vote in WB is now with BJP. After the collapse of the CPIM-INC in WB the hardcore Commie vote (maybe 5-10%) has moved to the TMC. So essentially she does't have much of the Bengali H vote. While opposition to the NRC from an electoral point of view is understandable opposing the CAB is suicidal. Whatever illegal Bdeshi H vote she got in the LS2019 election will now desert her.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 14 Dec 2019 20:01

Guys - what effect will CAB and NRC have on BJP's electoral prospects in the NE states? They have a good position there. A loss of a few more states?

What's going on with Maha, Raj and MP. Still unhappy about latter two cruising on replenishing coffers of the BIF supporters.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2019 20:08

Karan M wrote:Guys - what effect will CAB and NRC have on BJP's electoral prospects in the NE states? They have a good position there. A loss of a few more states?

What's going on with Maha, Raj and MP. Still unhappy about latter two cruising on replenishing coffers of the BIF supporters.


It's not so simple.

IMs are majorly involved in this agitation.

The ones in bangalore are not the beedis acting up but the locals and their political backers which are primarily two parties.

Apart from a minuscule few, most beedis will not be willing to show their faces in public as there is extensive videography done by law enforcement and other intelligence agencies both from center and state.


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