India in Central Asia

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

India in Central Asia

Post by kit »

This region is increasingly becoming significant to Indian security and policy matters with China getting more active in this region with a background of ( islamic ) militancy and instability.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by kit »

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ ... ide-powers


A Nov. 6 attack on a Tajik security checkpoint in Rudaki district near the border with Uzbekistan reportedly left at least 17 people dead, including 15 militants, a border guard and a police officer, though subsequent reports Nov. 9 indicate that at least five more security officers than initially reported actually died.

Authorities have detained four people suspected of involvement in the incident. According to the government, the attackers belonged to the Islamic State and entered Tajikistan from Afghanistan. Islamic State social media channels on Nov. 9 claimed the attack and attributed it to the group's Tajikistan affiliate, though this has yet to be independently verified.

The Latest in a Series of Attacks

This is the latest in a series of recent militant attacks in Tajikistan. Earlier incidents included an attack on foreign bicyclists claimed by the Islamic State in July 2018 and two deadly prison riots allegedly tied to the group in November 2018 and May 2019. Whether the Islamic State, in fact, was involved in the most recent incident remains unclear; details on the identities of the attackers have not been released, and some reports have emerged that the attackers were natives of Tajikistan's northern Sughd region.

The Tajik government has been known to exaggerate the threat of militancy generally and of the Islamic State specifically to justify security crackdowns and political consolidation when what it actually is dealing with is local opposition to its rule. If the government is correct this time, however, then the threat of a spillover of militancy from Tajikistan's long and porous border with Afghanistan has just grown.

The attack on the security checkpoint in Rudaki district highlights the persistent threat of militancy of all stripes that Tajikistan faces, something of direct concern to external powers in the region — and especially given the U.S. drawdown of forces from Afghanistan. Primary among these concerned external powers is Russia, which has 7,000 troops stationed at a base in Tajikistan and has voiced concerns over the militant threat stemming from Islamic State militants in northern Afghanistan.

China has also become more involved in the security sphere in Central Asia due to its concerns that militancy could spill over into its restive Uighur population; China, too, has a military presence on Tajik territory near the border with Afghanistan's Wakhan corridor. And despite its intention to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, the United States has also remained involved in counterterrorism and counternarcotics efforts in Central Asia. Even though all three powers share an interest in preventing or mitigating the spread of militancy in Tajikistan, tensions between them could arise if any one of these countries unilaterally increases its security activities there.

What to Watch for

Details about the attackers: Further details on the identities of the attackers will help determine their links, if any, to the Islamic State or other transnational militant groups. Connections to the Islamic State would indicate a transnational militant threat has emerged in Tajikistan, as opposed to a domestic militant threat arising from local political and security dynamics within Tajikistan, where tensions stemming from crackdowns on opposition groups and lingering animosities from the country's civil war in the early post-Soviet period still simmer. External powers are far more likely to respond — and Tajikistan is far more likely to allow them to respond — if the Islamic State was in fact responsible. It will also be key to watch if more evidence emerges linking the Islamic State to the attack, and if there are any indications of plots by the Islamic State to conduct further attacks in the country.

Tajikistan's next moves: Tajik security forces are known to respond to such attacks with military crackdowns and security sweeps, particularly in opposition hotbeds like the Rasht Valley and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of eastern Tajikistan. It will be important to see if such crackdowns lead to further clashes between security forces and opposition elements, whether political or jihadist. This could create a more tenuous security situation in the country, with greater instability increasing the potential for external involvement. If the Tajik government perceives a threat from Afghanistan that it can't deal with directly, it would be more willing to allow such involvement.

The position of Russia and other external powers: Russia's reaction to the attack will be key to monitor, whether in terms of increased exercises or potential deployments of additional assets and personnel to the country. A day after the attack, counterterrorism units based at Russia's 201st military base in Tajikistan conducted a military exercise that involved a mock armed group attempting to seize control of a checkpoint and military hospital in a cantonment of the Dushanbe garrison. Russia has also attempted to have its forces return to the Tajik-Afghan border in the past, something the Tajik government has resisted — though it might relent if the threat level rises. If such attacks increase in frequency and intensity, not only could Russia's security involvement in the country increase, counterterrorism involvement by China and the United States could also increase — potentially fostering increased competition between these powers.
srikandan
BRFite
Posts: 590
Joined: 20 Nov 2020 02:51

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by srikandan »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... y-7743198/
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host the first India-Central Asia Summit in a virtual format on Thursday during which the leaders are expected to deliberate on steps to take forward relations to newer heights as well as the evolving regional security situation.

The virtual summit will see the participation of the five presidents — Kazakhstan’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan’s Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow and Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyz Republic.

This will be the first engagement of its kind between India and the Central Asian countries at the level of leaders, the Ministry of External Affairs had said.

The summit is symbolic of the importance attached by the leaders of India and the Central Asian countries to a comprehensive and enduring India-Central Asia partnership.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by ramana »

Please post updates here.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by ramana »


A lookback: Celebrating India-Turkmenistan ties

India enjoys an enhanced mutually beneficial partnership with Turkmenistan and the ‘Turkman Gate’ built in Delhi in the 1650s bears testimony to this friendship. Regular exchange of high-level political visits has provided sustained momentum to this partnership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Turkmenistan in the year 2015. During the high-level visit, both sides decided to step up cooperation in the levels of bilateral trade, investment, and economic cooperation.


India to hold first India-Central Asia Summit:

In a major push towards its extended neighborhood policy, India will host the first meeting of the India-Central Asia Summit. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will, be hosting the first of its kind engagement between India and Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) in a virtual format on January 27, 2022.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, during the first India-Central Asia Summit, the leaders are expected to discuss steps to take forward India-Central Asia relations to newer heights. During the high-level meeting, the leaders are expected to discuss the evolving regional security situation in the context of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.

Trade & Commercial Relations:

According to the government data, total trade for the year 2019-20 (upto December 2019) between India and Turkmenistan stood at US$29.97 million. Exports from India stood at US$26.40 million and Imports by India at US$3.57 million registering a surplus of US$22.83 million in India’s favour, the data further showed.

Electronic and electrical items, machinery and woven apparel and pharmaceuticals, frozen meat are among the most common items imported from India.

While, items exported to India from Turkmenistan comprise fertilizers, cotton, raw hides, and inorganic chemicals (e.g. Sulpher, Iodine). Turkmenistan produces cotton, wheat, rice, and a variety of vegetables and fruits. However, during PM Modi’s visit to Turkmenistan in 2015, both the leaders noted that the trade volumes between the two countries could potentially be increased manifold to the mutual benefit of both countries.

During the visit, the leaders agreed to increase cooperation in various sectors including, petrochemicals, transport, communications, information and technology, textile industry, chemical and pharmaceutical industry, construction, and agro-processing.

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project:

The TAPI pipeline project forms a key pillar of economic engagement between the two countries.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, on 13 November, 2014, the four-state gas companies of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India established a company that will build, own, and operate the planned 1,800-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline.

Recently, EAM Dr. S Jaishankar exchanged views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan Rashid Meredovon over the implementation of the TAPI gas pipeline project, emphasizing the need to intensify work at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

Cooperation in the field of Disaster Management:

Strengthening the cooperation in the field of Disaster Management, recently the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the signing of Memorandum of Understanding between India and Turkmenistan.

The MoU seeks to bolster the ties whereby India and Turkmenistan will be benefited from the Disaster Management mechanism of each other.

“It will help in strengthening the areas of preparedness, response, and capacity building in the field of Disaster Management, the Ministry of External Affairs stated.

A Hindi Connection:

Hindi one of the most spoken and recognized languages in India, holds a special place in the hearts of Turkmen people. Hindi is being taught to university students in Turkmenistan, following the establishment of the Hindi Chair in the year 2015 in Azadi Institute of World languages, Ashgabat. Also, ‘Vishwa Hindi Diwas’ is celebrated in Turkmenistan every year.

srikandan
BRFite
Posts: 590
Joined: 20 Nov 2020 02:51

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by srikandan »

https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status ... 7936083968

"PM Modiji: India and Central Asia share civilisational ties. Today, we agreed on expanding cultural and youth exchanges, promotion of yoga, Indian films and music in Central Asia. The new Joint Working Group on use of Chabahar port is a welcome step for enhancing regional connectivity."

Good move. It is in Iran's own interest to work with India in making this happen, and if they don't it hurts Iran more than it hurts India. Iranian govt. is fickle and not reliable, but if they have skin in the game that is not related to India, that is better.
Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3512
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by Rony »

Interesting podcast.
This week's guests are: from New Delhi, Ashok Sajjanhar, executive council member at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses; president of the Institute of Global Studies; a distinguished fellow with the Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Indian ambassador to Kazakhstan; also from New Delhi, Punchok Stobdan, currently a senior fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in India and a former Indian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan; from California, Bakyt Beshimov, currently a Global Studies and International Relations lecturer and professor of the practice at Northeastern University and a former Kyrgyz ambassador to India; and Bruce Pannier, the author of the Qishloq Ovozi blog.
https://www.rferl.org/a/majlis-podcast- ... 78304.html
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India in Central Asia

Post by ramana »

I forgot about Seminar Magazine. They had a special issue on Central Asia in 2019.

https://www.india-seminar.com/semframe.html
Post Reply