2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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hanumadu
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 03 Feb 2020 20:24

dipak wrote:
Vikas wrote:
Not sure about your sources but after the lackluster budget (in the eyes of Middle class and Govt employees),
It is generally accepted that AAP (+Cong) will form the govt in Delhi. It does not look like BJP forming the govt in Delhi despite all the efforts by Amit Shah.
.
.
.
Add to the fact that BJP has no leader worthwhile in Delhi who can challenge Kejriwal.
So count it as Dill-dur-ast for BJP in this bout too.

People are very sure for BJP, they emphasize that hawa changed during very recently, during last 2-4 weeks only; this includes the lower strata on the society as well like jhuggiwala and autowala etc.

Even if they don't win, this bodes well, overall for BJP and certainly no walk-over to Kejri.
Lets see, on 11th all will be clear.


Chintamani
@IamIconoclast
#DelhiElections #DelhiElections2020
Our surveys find that it could be anybody's elections now. The #Chintamani5Dots Opinion poll today (conducted between 28 Jan-1 Feb):
#AAP: 33-37 (40-42%)
#BJP: 33-37 (41-43%)
#INC: 0-3 (7-9%)

vijayk
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 03 Feb 2020 20:31

pankajs wrote:As of 1st Feb,2020

https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/ ... ter-survey
Delhi Election 2020 Tracker: Who’s Ahead & Which Issues Matter?

Question >> Which party will you vote for in the Assembly polls?
AAP = 47.4 %
BJP = 36.3 %

AAP leading by = 11.1 %

Undecided = 10.5 %

However, on the question >> Which party can solve your problems?
AAP = 25.7 %
BJP = 27.6 %

BJP leading by = 1.9 %

Per the tracker, AAP used to be ahead of BJP and by up to 10% margin except that has changed in the last 15-20 days. This seems to a leading indicator.

This data is before the latest BJP blitz got going. Lets watch both the trend very carefully till about the election day.


Dont believe in quint too much

pankajs
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Feb 2020 20:34

vijayk wrote:
pankajs wrote:As of 1st Feb,2020

https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/ ... ter-survey
Delhi Election 2020 Tracker: Who’s Ahead & Which Issues Matter?

Question >> Which party will you vote for in the Assembly polls?
AAP = 47.4 %
BJP = 36.3 %

Dont believe in quint too much

It is CVoter .. While it may get it wrong, it certainly is not a manipulative agency as far as I know.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Feb 2020 20:35

twitter

This is NOT a sacrifice.
This is negligence of a mother who used her child for mercenary compunctions. Negligence of a community that used a little child for their political ends.
Don’t whitewash a tragedy that could have been avoided.
Shameful. Shameless.




Image

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Feb 2020 20:42

This is the degree of specialization in the administration and the efficient management of nation building that the founders of India expected from the ICS turned IAS baboo(n)s



Image


But by deifying these guys right from the beginning, giving them unbridled powers and letting them continue their colonial ways what we got was what we richly deserved: the almost useless generalist who pretended that he knew how to do everything but in fact knew almost nothing

So think twice before you say bird brain because these guys know what they are all about.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 03 Feb 2020 20:50

Hanuman bhakt Kejri! This guy was the key in the jingle: Laloo, Mulayam, aur Kejri nandan, Tej Pratap Mahathugbandhan (adapted from verse 6, apologies to original).

I predicted it would end up in monkey business. This guy thinks he can bank on the monkey connection, Hanuman ji is way beyond his comprehension.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/kejriwal- ... uman-bhakt

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Feb 2020 21:13

Will the self confessed hinjew Kujli fall between two stools?

https://www.opindia.com/2020/02/delhi-e ... s-outrage/
Arvind Kejriwal’s bid to win over Hindus backfires, Islamists outrage over him reciting Hanuman Chalisa
However, in his efforts to win Hindu votes, Kejriwal appears to have angered Islamists on social media. Islamists are also angry with the media for imploring Kejriwal to prove his Hindu credentials.
I think he will retain the Muslim vote. With CON having vacated the field, they have no other option.

https://www.opindia.com/2020/02/raj-tha ... as-mumbai/
Raj Thackeray’s anti-illegal immigrants rally on Sunday to avoid passing through Mumbai’s Muslim dominated neighbourhoods
MNS chief Raj Thackeray had announced at a rally last month that his party would organise a rally against the illegal immigrants in Mumbai. The party had later announced that the rally would commence from Jijamata Udyan at Byculla and conclude at the Azad Maidan near Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus (CSMT) on the Central Railway. However, the Mumbai police were not willing to provide a permit to organise the rally as the route envisaged passed through densely populated Muslim neighbourhoods. The final call on the route was to be decided by the party on Monday.

Shunning its earlier proposed route that went through crammed Muslim localities, the party today provided an alternative route between Girgaum Chowpati and Azad Maidan to carry out the aforesaid rally against the illegal immigrants.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Feb 2020 21:36

the BJP jingle and election promo video

It's probably the best one I have seen till date



https://twitter.com/BJP4Delhi/status/1223884030770200577

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 03 Feb 2020 22:36

Guys, just scanned the headlines including opinion polls on Delhi election from TimesNow. Its AAP all the way looks like. At best 10-14 seats for BJP. Not sure what to make of it, and how good TimesNow's record has been on opinion polls? An AAP victory by that big a margin will sure energize BIF forces? And BTW, pankajs, this is not UndY opinion, its my opinion. Whats is it about us Hindus who cannot read the tea leaves? You had who 2-month+ of an orgy of Hindu hate being peddled right in the capital by Islamist-led BIF, and yet Hindus refuse to vote for the party that stands for them.

Deleted BIF article
Last edited by CRamS on 04 Feb 2020 02:51, edited 1 time in total.

Manish_Sharma
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 03 Feb 2020 23:11

^ under the garb of innocent questions you are continuing to serve agenda of BIF by posting these links and introducing these people here on BRF. Links are clickbaits to give them popularity...

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Feb 2020 23:21

CRamS wrote:Guys, just scanned the headlines including opinion polls on Delhi election from TimesNow. Its AAP all the way looks like. At best 10-14 seats for BJP. Not sure what to make of it, and how good TimesNow's record has been on opinion polls? An AAP victory by that big a margin will sure energize BIF forces? And BTW, pankajs, this is not UndY opinion, its my opinion. Whats is it about us Hindus who cannot read the tea leaves? You had who 2-month+ of an orgy of Hindu hate being peddled right in the capital by Islamist-led BIF, and yet Hindus refuse to vote for the party that stands for them.

BTW, is this Arif Rafiq guy a Paki or an Indian Muslim from BIF? He packs quite a few bold-faced lies as he urges US to dump India because its a "Hindu majoritarian" state and hence not in US interests. You kick these p!ssfuls hard on their b@lls like US has done, and boy will they fall in line. But you give them an inch or miles as in India's case, and they will demand nothing but dominance as if its their birthright

https://www.yahoo.com/news/america-maki ... 00767.html

1. While Delhi is a prestigious seat and BJP must make all efforts to win it, we should not worry too much about it. It was won by AAP last time too and Modi continued his march irrespective.
2. Yeh .. I know it was your opinion and that is why I wrote "it **smells** like rNDTV or Troll.com". You still are too fixated on rNDTV opinions. India has moved on but theek hai.
3. Majority Hindus have the same problem that you seem to be having .. Unable to distinguish between the "good to have" and "must have".
4. Yeh .. now US is going to listen to all the riff-raffs when it takes policy decision in its own interest. Indians must write more to counter such propaganda but such yapping at the moon does not make much of a difference.

Lastly, I expect BJP to be neck to neck in terms of vote percentage with AAP or better. In a one on one fight that Delhi is shaping up to be, the seats too should reflect the vote share but distribution matters.

vijayk
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 03 Feb 2020 23:39

Image

I think they messed up big time by not having a CM face

Image

pankajs
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 04 Feb 2020 00:18

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1224341922409353216
Press Trust of India @PTI_News

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has registered an FIR in the Elgar Parishad case and charged 11 people, including nine currently in jail, under provisions of the anti-terror law UAPA and the IPC, days after it was handed over the matter in Maharashtra by the Centre.

https://twitter.com/Ethirajans/status/1 ... 7820983303
Ethirajan Srinivasan @Ethirajans

NIA takes over Kaliyakkavilai SSI Wilson's assassination case.
Last edited by pankajs on 04 Feb 2020 00:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vadivel » 04 Feb 2020 00:19

BJP et all should tone down the Paki reference and attack Kujilival, pak reference is being picked on MSM and SM and seems to have negative vibes

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 04 Feb 2020 00:58

Shah doing roadshow / Stump speech at 10 pm?!! BJP is really pushing this one!

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby IndraD » 04 Feb 2020 01:11

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/122 ... 55170?s=20
with lions share of votes AAP will return with ample seats as per Times Bhow

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 04 Feb 2020 02:14

Navroop Singh
@NavroopSingh_
Going by BJP awesome campaign they have made a stunning turn around from a one sided match to fight and i hope they win the race in Delhi. My expectation is around 40 for BJP. I loved their fight & zeal to win Delhi. Rest as they say is हरी इच्छा



Main problem is ITALIAN garbage thrown in towel and all are united.

Manish_Sharma
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 04 Feb 2020 02:43

^ not a single rally by congress, seems familia decided to transfer their votes to aap just to defeat BJP.

But seeing kejri recite Hanuman Chalisa seems he is scared seeing BJP campaign. Maybe some internal poll is showing different picture... let's see

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 04 Feb 2020 02:52

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ under the garb of innocent questions you are continuing to serve agenda of BIF by posting these links and introducing these people here on BRF. Links are clickbaits to give them popularity...


I deleted the BIF article. I just posted to highlight the brazen bold-faced lies

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudeepj » 04 Feb 2020 03:23

In the 2019 Loksabha elections, BJP won all seven seats, polling 58% of the votes. AAP polled 18% and Congress polled 22%.

For AAP to win, all of the Congress vote bank will need to transfer seamlessly to AAP and AAP will also need to swing a substantial percentage of voters who voted for BJP in the LokSabha elections.

I dont think this is about to happen.

vijayk
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 04 Feb 2020 04:03

sudeepj wrote:In the 2019 Loksabha elections, BJP won all seven seats, polling 58% of the votes. AAP polled 18% and Congress polled 22%.

For AAP to win, all of the Congress vote bank will need to transfer seamlessly to AAP and AAP will also need to swing a substantial percentage of voters who voted for BJP in the LokSabha elections.

I dont think this is about to happen.


people vote differently for Parliament and Assembly.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Feb 2020 05:51

India's undemocratic partition - instigated by Jinnah, accepted by Gandhi and the Congress Party, and midwifed by the British - was a traumatic, epoch-making event that vivisected the world's oldest civilization. It opened wounds that have never healed. Its effects reverberate to this day, in the form of "the idea of Pakistan" and calls for "Jinnah wali azaadi" in India.

Partition did not solve anything. The nation was broken up, and India still finds itself in a state of undeclared war with Pakistan over seven decades later. What caused Partition? What forces impelled it? Who were the principal actors? The answer is surprisingly complex.

In this talk, Abhijit Chavda shows how a sequence of seemingly unrelated events set in motion centuries ago in Arabia, Central Asia, and Turkey, eventually culminated in India's partition and the unspeakable violence and atrocities that accompanied it






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Erxm70VGjfE&feature=youtu.be


The Turkish Origins Of India's Partition | Abhijit Chavda | Genocide Of Kashmiri Hindus |Moplah Riot




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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CalvinH » 04 Feb 2020 08:47

vijayk wrote:
Navroop Singh
@NavroopSingh_
Going by BJP awesome campaign they have made a stunning turn around from a one sided match to fight and i hope they win the race in Delhi. My expectation is around 40 for BJP. I loved their fight & zeal to win Delhi. Rest as they say is हरी इच्छा



Main problem is ITALIAN garbage thrown in towel and all are united.


This was the surprise factor in 2015 when Muslim vote bank of INC switched in a block to AAP reducing congress vote share to less than 10%. No longer a surprise now. BJP knows that its a two party fight.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 04 Feb 2020 09:06

chetak wrote:
India's undemocratic partition - instigated by Jinnah, accepted by Gandhi and the Congress Party, and midwifed by the British - was a traumatic, epoch-making event that vivisected the world's oldest civilization. It opened wounds that have never healed. Its effects reverberate to this day, in the form of "the idea of Pakistan" and calls for "Jinnah wali azaadi" in India.

Partition did not solve anything. The nation was broken up, and India still finds itself in a state of undeclared war with Pakistan over seven decades later. What caused Partition? What forces impelled it? Who were the principal actors? The answer is surprisingly complex.

In this talk, Abhijit Chavda shows how a sequence of seemingly unrelated events set in motion centuries ago in Arabia, Central Asia, and Turkey, eventually culminated in India's partition and the unspeakable violence and atrocities that accompanied it


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Erxm70VGjfE&feature=youtu.be

The Turkish Origins Of India's Partition | Abhijit Chavda | Genocide Of Kashmiri Hindus |Moplah Riot



Some fun facts on emerging trends in a multipolar world:

Today Turkey has the best of both worlds in terms of defense infra. large member of NATO and also acquired S400 from Russia.
Turkey ad Pakistan are going for dual citizenship.

China also got S400 from Russia.
Pakistan is a Chinese colony.

The people of India have to be the most passive on this planet. Perhaps residents of Delhi should seriously consider becoming subjects of an Islamic Caliphate/Sultanate.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kati » 04 Feb 2020 09:16

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1224382668114055170?s=20
with lions share of votes AAP will return with ample seats as per Times Bhow


A simple majority in opinion polls do not make much sense. It doesn't reflect who will be the ultimate winner
in terms of the number seats won.
It all depends on how the sampled voters are distributed over the constituencies, total number of voters in
each constituency, percentage of voters actually go out to cast their votes, etc. ...
So there are a lot of secondary factors.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 04 Feb 2020 09:30

AAP finding it difficult to counter BJP on Shaheen Bagh issue: Anurag Thakur
Report reads; "Union minister Anurag Singh Thakur welcomed several AAP leaders who joined the BJP on Monday, saying this was a blow to the party's top leadership which was struggling to counter the saffron party on the Shaheen Bagh issue.

BJP issues showcause notice to Hegde, Congress demands sedition case. It would be better for BJP to have some control over such motor mouths.

200 Pakistani Hindus cross Attari-Wagah border, some say will seek asylum. Don't know the CAA benefits would be given to them immediately. Perhaps their waiting period for citizenship would get reduced.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Feb 2020 09:50

Sachin wrote:AAP finding it difficult to counter BJP on Shaheen Bagh issue: Anurag Thakur
Report reads; "Union minister Anurag Singh Thakur welcomed several AAP leaders who joined the BJP on Monday, saying this was a blow to the party's top leadership which was struggling to counter the saffron party on the Shaheen Bagh issue.

BJP issues showcause notice to Hegde, Congress demands sedition case. It would be better for BJP to have some control over such motor mouths.

200 Pakistani Hindus cross Attari-Wagah border, some say will seek asylum. Don't know the CAA benefits would be given to them immediately. Perhaps their waiting period for citizenship would get reduced.


need to be very careful as to whom we let in due to the ISI factor

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Yagnasri » 04 Feb 2020 10:22

The main issues is the transfer of INC votes to PAAPis. That is going to happen big time and a problem for BJP. Plus if the surge of support to BJP is sufficient and results in votes/seats? While PAAPis seems to have peaked early BJP has to peak at the time time. The worrying facts are - BJP is not going up much above its 38% (IIRC) vote % in the assembly elections for a long time and the win for PAAPis will be seen as win for Shahinbahg type actions and they will increase.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Pathik » 04 Feb 2020 10:24

Bit surprising why Delhi as a city despite its current issues, biggest of which had been pollution and security would continue voting for AAP. There is very little AAP has accomplished in its two terms to write home about. Education, Mohalla clinics, garbage recycling, infra projects, water supply, tariffs - everything is in shambles. At the ground level if people want to vote AAP just because BJP didnt offer a better candidate or doesnt have good track record, doesnt make sense. The free bijli/paani dream is long over and just being anti modi doesnt make sense in 2020, what is going to give AAP a 50+% vote share or is Delhi still so disconnected from the ROI like TN and Kerala?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Santosh » 04 Feb 2020 10:25

CRamS wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:^ under the garb of innocent questions you are continuing to serve agenda of BIF by posting these links and introducing these people here on BRF. Links are clickbaits to give them popularity...

I deleted the BIF article. I just posted to highlight the brazen bold-faced lies

By all indications, the door-to-door campaign of BJP, Modi-Shah-Yogi rallies and blitzkrieg to be unleashed by BJP in run up to election will make it very difficult for Kejri to retain Delhi. If you look at youtube videos from several assembly areas, people are fed up with bad water and broken roads. Shaheen bag has converted this election into more of India vs Pak election. Modi-Yogi-Shah have been very careful with messaging and asking Delhi what will happen in few more such Shaheen Bag come up at major intersections. Paap is losing ground rapidly and BJP is gaining. Swamy says BJP will get 41. I thik simple majority should be possible for BJP. All the nonsense you see in media is to keep the tactical voting intact to defeat BJP.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Santosh » 04 Feb 2020 10:32

BTW BJP's base vote share in Delhi is around 35-36%. So quint numbers are off.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 04 Feb 2020 10:51

BJP local leadership will need to step up their game. They can't be dependent upon Modi Ji for everything from Municipality to LS election. As much as the Man is a legend and ultimate vote catcher, eventually it is the local face and its connection with the people which gets parties across the line.

On Delhi, I will be pleasantly surprised if BJP forms the govt. My money is still on AAP to carry the day with helping hand (no pun) from the Eytalians.
Although I think we should be less hyper about never ending cycle of elections in India. Main parties will keep wining and losing elections which should be alright as long as main states and center is ruled by Dharmic folks.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 04 Feb 2020 11:08

https://twitter.com/dna/status/1224422303804555264
DNA @dna

Iqbal Mirchi case: ED discovers links between Sudhakar Reddy, several Congress politicians

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-i ... ns-2811976
A former Haryana minister as well as some ex-ministers belonging to Maharashtra Congress were allegedly a part of the dealings with Shetty, according to ED investigations. The documents further reveal that Shetty had reportedly spent several crores during the wedding of a relative of an ex-chief minister of Haryana.

Another transaction that is being investigated is about a land deal that happened between Shetty and a senior politician in Mumbai's Juhu area. Details have emerged that the former gave his helicopter to the latter of free in return of the alleged benefits.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Feb 2020 12:43

Wasn't Anant Kumar Hegde part of the D4, I dont think such an experienced person can be a mother mouth, its more strategic sabotage, he will have be treated like Yaswant Sinha, Shatrugan Sinha etc.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 04 Feb 2020 12:43

Delhi election day is Saturday. So I dont see a good voter turnout ? Many BJP supporters simply arent committed to come out to vote in this state election. A strong word of mouth, voluntary work especially transportation is needed on election day.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 04 Feb 2020 14:05

Sachin wrote:200 Pakistani Hindus cross Attari-Wagah border, some say will seek asylum. Don't know the CAA benefits would be given to them immediately. Perhaps their waiting period for citizenship would get reduced.

CAA does not apply to them. They can use the older provisions under the citizenship act to seek naturalization after 11 years, subject to the usual checks and procedures.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 04 Feb 2020 14:06

Aditya_V wrote:Wasn't Anant Kumar Hegde part of the D4, I dont think such an experienced person can be a mother mouth, its more strategic sabotage, he will have be treated like Yaswant Sinha, Shatrugan Sinha etc.
There was an Anant Kumar who died a couple of years back and was senior leader.

This guy is AK Hegde, much younger and a motormouth.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Yagnasri » 04 Feb 2020 14:06

Aditya_V wrote:Wasn't Anant Kumar Hegde part of the D4, I dont think such an experienced person can be a mother mouth, its more strategic sabotage, he will have be treated like Yaswant Sinha, Shatrugan Sinha etc.


It is another Anantha Kumar who no more. He used to get elected from one of the Bangalore city seats. This Hegde is from Mangalore area and a kattar Hinduwadi politico from the start.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Feb 2020 14:07

Santosh wrote:BTW BJP's base vote share in Delhi is around 35-36%. So quint numbers are off.


quint and the other naxal media are not going to give correct numbers.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 04 Feb 2020 14:18

Why are BJP leaders being held to higher standards than their counterparts in other parties.
In a country where fake news, 2 min sound byte to TV channels, Tweets on anything and fight against Con-Com controlled MSM is order of the day, Folks should not be called motor mouth or uncouth or part of new D4.


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