2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Manish_Sharma
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Manish sisodia trailing by 1427 votes

Sateyndra jain and 5 more ministers trailing
Yagnasri
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Yagnasri »

Few good losses of PAAPi leadership would be good. It will send a message.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Raveen »

Nikhil T wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
Not really, I don't think the BJP offered as much freebies as pAAPis. Delhi voters are in their own bubble.
The BJP legalized 1700 illegal colonies that house 40 lakh people - so that’s a freebie too!

It’s a bit arrogant to declare voters are in bubble when the same voters voted a different way a few months ago. A bit patronizing.

@Aditya_V Saar
What’s your source for minorities comprising 29.6% vote and they all voted? Per Shekhar Gupta - minorities are 12%.
You do realize 1/2 of Delhi is illegal lol
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Manish_Sharma wrote:Manish sisodia trailing by 1427 votes

Sateyndra jain and 5 more ministers trailing
many more rounds of counting to go.

the slog overs begin after 1430.
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Aditya_V wrote:
pankajs wrote:Photo of a document floating on twitter wrt the Rajya sabha business for {the day/week/session ???}. Like all things on twitter, take this with a bucket of salt.

Image
The only thing that stands out that would need a wip is UCC.
I think this related SC/ST reservation not UCC, thanks to SC verdict, the Babus are anyway with INC/AAP- I think it is important BJP is seen as fair to the SC/ST community.
I think that the UCC and the constitution amendment bill will be presented today
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter

Now situation at #ShaheenBaghProtest

Protestor: Hamein maarke bhagao
Govt: Hum nahin dekhenge
Protestor: Hamein jaana hain
Govt: Hum nahin dekhenge
Protestor: Bachhon ka exam hain
Govt: Hum nahin dekhenge
Protestor: Bus hum kaagaz dikhayenge
Govt: Hum nahin dekhenge
Yagnasri
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Yagnasri »

BJP vote share almost continuously falling. Now 39.3%. Leading just in 13 seats.
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

this is why khujliwal is in a panic since the end of voting and screaming at the ECI to release the voting percentages.


twitter
Pre Results Bulletin-1
1. Insiders indicate Kejriwal is very nervous.

2. AAP volunteers lefts their booths/belts around 3.30-4pm in overconfidence of victory.

3. They now have no clear assessment of what happenend between 4pm-EOD. Kejriwal-Sisodia very pissed with this.
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Yagnasri wrote:BJP vote share almost continuously falling. Now 39.3%. Leading just in 13 seats.
long way to go yet.

win or lose, these guys have really put up a fight.

If only the dilli BJP was united and had fought as a unit, the results would have been seen by now.

These guys have seven CM aspirants. Just slightly less than the actual number of voters who voted in these elections :mrgreen:
Aditya_V
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

But having cast doubts over the EC I think the moral thing for AAP to do will be to resign and go for fresh elections woundnt or at least public ally apologise
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/NewIndianXpress/sta ... 3018839042
The New Indian Express @NewIndianXpress

#OPINION | #ArvindKejriwal has turned Delhi into a counter- Hindutva laboratory: a laboratory for reviving grassroots, pro-people democracy, writes @VThampu
.
#DelhiResults
Becuase of analysis like this, the opposition keeps ceding space to BJP. Lage rao!

OTOH, BJP would be extremely happy with such shallow analysis.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Delhi elections are a minor blip, a bit more important than capturing BMC.
As long as Modi Ji rules at the center and Amit Shah is the HM, We are in the play.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Aditya_V wrote:But having cast doubts over the EC I think the moral thing for AAP to do will be to resign and go for fresh elections woundnt or at least public ally apologise
AAP was born with slender, fraud and tuchapan. This is their DNA.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Yagnasri »

BMC is difficult but can be done. I wonder if SS rule will continue till that time. There is almost two years for BMC elections.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajD »

It's getting worse. Various channels are showing following results/trends.
Times Now
AAP - 63, BJP+ 7.
CNN News
AAP - 62, BJP - 8
Republic TV
AAP - 61, BJP - 9
India Today
AAP - 63, BJP - 7
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

If congress would have won even a single seat in Delhi elections, Darbari presstituts would have gone to the town calling it congress revival and how Rahul and Priyanka are rewriting the rules of elections with Gen-Y and taking family heritage forward.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Yagnasri wrote:BMC is difficult but can be done. I wonder if SS rule will continue till that time. There is almost two years for BMC elections.
I don't see UT going anywhere in next 2 years. The battle for BMC will be interesting though.
A lot would depend upon Raj T and how much traction he gets among disgruntled Sainiks. He may need 2-3 big faces to defect and money to make any tangible impact during BMC elections.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kittoo »

RajD wrote:It's getting worse. Various channels are showing following results/trends.
Times Now
AAP - 63, BJP+ 7.
CNN News
AAP - 62, BJP - 8
Republic TV
AAP - 61, BJP - 9
India Today
AAP - 63, BJP - 7
It happens like that only. Initial leader usually increases its lead as voting continues.
Its pretty bad, but I suppose Delhiites dont mind Shaheen bagh etc and prefer freebies over it. Nothing much we can do other than keep supporting the government at center. Of curse Delhi voted 7/7 to BJP in center so hey, maybe there is indeed big distinction. I would take those 7/7 than the half state CMship of Delhi anyday.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Aditya_V »

Lets not be sore losers like the AAP and INC, who only call Election commission biased when they loose. Looks like Delhi people weighed in and decided to vote for AAP, being a capital all the Central Government babus will ensure that things keep moving and with Delhi Police Law and Order being with center not much of a loss.

My personal gut feel is that the Freebies given by Kejriwal in the last 6 months are not sustainable, he had to give it since if he losses Delhi his party may be wiped out. He will create another Dharna with Shaheen Bhag and attack the LG and the Central Government in 6 months -1 year time. I hope the center sticks to its stand and makes him do what is logical- either withdraw his freebies or increase taxes.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Yagnasri »

Two reason - INC vote was transfered to PAAPis plus entire Dalali lootian votes went to PAAPis. Just like last time. Add lack of leadership in BJP.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Larry Walker »

The supposed yug-purush of anti-corruption and messiah of poor has to resort to everything free just to retain a small blip half-state like Delhi even after being in public service for 5+ years only goes to show how much weak is there agenda and influence is, that they got to throw everything and the kitchen sink to retain their minor foot-hold.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

I have spoken with many in Delhi and there is a general consensus that Kejriwal has done a decent job with governance once he stopped blaming Modi govt. Lot of folks are especially happy with Schools, water and electricity bills and health facilities.
Surprise surprise, Lot of folks also were appreciative of Odd-even schemes.

IMO...
To criticize people of Delhi while sitting outside and calling them freebies lover sort of disrespects the mandate.
If you think that when NM offered direct money transfer to farmers before GE'19, it was good & smart politics but somehow similarly couched offers are freebies when offered by Kejriwal. then it smacks of hypocrisy.
You don't win with landslide twice without doing any work.

If just freebies could win elections, every state govt would be rushing to offer them to the voters and win mandate in return. It does not work that way.

Add to the fact that BJP had no face as CM and Congress had shifted its 10-15% vote bank to AAP. Well Congress surely is going down with a bang. Even AAP darling Alka Lamba, now of congress could not get even 2000 votes.
There may also be some resentful folks in BJP who were overlooked for non political nobodies like Gambhir and Hansraj Hans last time.
Another potential factor could be, Modi govt is totally dedicated towards farmers and manufacturing industries and both of them have no direct impact in Delhi.
I for one think that it is good for democracy that different streams of governance are striving for vote and mindshare.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

Also please note there is no larger "farmer" movement in the sultanate of Delhi, which other full fledged states have a tough time satisfying. The well off dont care and the not so well off do not want to upset the cart of freebies, both confined to a largely urban setting.

This is an (F)article from 5 years back, before the 2015 results were announced for Delhi.

https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/why ... -1.1443516

I am not saying that keeping Kejriwal confined to Delhi is a part of some grand chankyan scheme, but there are always murmurs. Anyway, the Dharmik war has not been lost with the loss of mayorship of an urban area.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ArjunPandit »

Raveen wrote:
Nikhil T wrote:
Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.
:rotfl:
More of the local leadership - 7/7 LS means agenda has support, abvp winning means agenda has support, MCD wins means agenda has support

Congi vote transfer, plus jin support, plus freebies and doles = Ford Foundation aka pAAP win
not because of this win..i would not hedge my bets on bjp winning on mcd. Not because they havent done any work..but simply becaues their messaging and local leadership is completely messed up...and that thing has been exposed terribly 2017 elections were post surgical strike and AK's lunatics afterwards...he had a course correction afterwards..Delhi BJP needs some serious ground up RSS style work...without it they have a problem at hand..i think grassroot leaders like kapil mishra and others should be made to focus on delhi issues..and not a shoot and scoot tactic..they drew considerable blood before and after elections...it is never over..
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

Vikas wrote:I have spoken with many in Delhi and there is a general consensus that Kejriwal has done a decent job with governance once he stopped blaming Modi govt. Lot of folks are especially happy with Schools, water and electricity bills and health facilities.
Surprise surprise, Lot of folks also were appreciative of Odd-even schemes.

IMO...
To criticize people of Delhi while sitting outside and calling them freebies lover sort of disrespects the mandate.
If you think that when NM offered direct money transfer to farmers before GE'19, it was good & smart politics but somehow similarly couched offers are freebies when offered by Kejriwal. then it smacks of hypocrisy.
You don't win with landslide twice without doing any work.

If just freebies could win elections, every state govt would be rushing to offer them to the voters and win mandate in return. It does not work that way.

Add to the fact that BJP had no face as CM and Congress had shifted its 10-15% vote bank to AAP. Well Congress surely is going down with a bang. Even AAP darling Alka Lamba, now of congress could not get even 2000 votes.
There may also be some resentful folks in BJP who were overlooked for non political nobodies like Gambhir and Hansraj Hans last time.
Another potential factor could be, Modi govt is totally dedicated towards farmers and manufacturing industries and both of them have no direct impact in Delhi.
I for one think that it is good for democracy that different streams of governance are striving for vote and mindshare.
agreed.

Delhi gets a lot of money from center and within the city. Looks like AK is doing better job in managing the city.
If the moronic politicians did half decent thing, they could have improved the city so much better. But they are interested in only their pockets and nepotism.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

no need to say anything more.

Isn't this exactly what happened during the run up to the partition too.



Overheard in #Parliament : “seedhi baat hai, Muslim poora polarise hua, Hindu ghanta hua.”!#ParliamentDiaries #DelhiResults

— Nistula Hebbar (@nistula) February 11, 2020
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by neerajb »

IMHO delhites are better off financially than rest of India comparatively. I have seen many in my circle appreciative of freebies even when they dont need it. Many are crorepati types. Greed and selfishness has no ends it seems.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Chaloo Delhi is done .. What was the BJP whip about?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

chetak wrote:no need to say anything more.

Isn't this exactly what happened during the run up to the partition too.
Overheard in #Parliament : “seedhi baat hai, Muslim poora polarise hua, Hindu ghanta hua.”!#ParliamentDiaries #DelhiResults

— Nistula Hebbar (@nistula) February 11, 2020
Is that what happens in every elections ?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

pankajs wrote:Chaloo Delhi is done .. What was the BJP whip about?
No bill is introduced today in Rajya sabha. Venkayya Naidu asked both ruling and opposition to issue a whip as the attendance was very low during budget discussion.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/kejriwal-d ... im-2177811
Kejriwal Didn't Stand Up To Modi - He Side-Stepped Him -- Mihir Swarup Sharma -- NDTV
Thus I suppose some liberal triumphalism was inevitable, but it should be roundly rejected. It might feel wonderful to declare that this was the voter in Delhi rejecting divisiveness and declaring her disagreement with what the BJP had to say, but that would be a brazen misinterpretation of what has actually happened. In fact, the BJP won the argument. It simply did not win the election. The AAP has not disagreed with the BJP on the themes or substance of its critique of Shaheen Bagh, of the anti-CAA protests, and so on. Arvind Kejriwal himself complained the problem with the CAA was that Indians themselves were not getting jobs. He also declared that if given a free hand, he would clear Shaheen Bagh in a couple of hours, and that nobody had the right to block traffic indefinitely. Quite amazing hypocrisy from a man who rose to power on a record consisting solely of pointless, fruitless, and interminable protest. If the BJP's campaign has been one of open malice, the AAP's campaign has been no less damaging to India's soul. This is a victory of not just cowardice, but of submission to the BJP's core values.
Aila ... BJP won despite its loss. :shock: Now remember, this is from a trenchant critic of Modi/BJP and on rNDTV. Who's line is it anyways?

Oodi baba ... the last line is even better "submission to the BJP's core values". :rotfl: chaalo theek hai. I can live with that though I too would have preferred a BJP victory.
There are those who think politics should only be about schools, and they might wish to rejoice over the AAP's victory. But politics, especially in India has always also been about more than that - and doubly so in Modi's times. There are those like Kejriwal, who seek to turn the conversation away from those aspects of the Modi agenda - Kashmir, the essential Hindu-ness of India, and so on - with which they have no dispute. The famous answer that Kejriwal gave a television anchor probing him about Shaheen Bagh was indeed revelatory - but it hardly deserved the plaudits it received. He said this was all a "distraction". A distraction? Fighting to preserve what remains of India's constitutional values is a "distraction"? Kejriwal ran away from power once; now, to keep power, he is running away from the issues.
Nice line ...

Now to watch out if kujli reverts back to his original anarchist avatar as many have predicted here or will he stick to his newly minted "ran away from confronting Modi" avatar. If he wants to expand, he can't be seen confronting Modi.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

pappu has scored more than a duck and under his management, his party is beyond bankrupt.


twitter

Congress hasn't just scored ZERO, but lost its deposit in SIXTY SEVEN seats in Delhi. This was a party that was in power for 15 unstoppable years under Sheila Dikshit till 2013. #DelhiElections2020
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

Delhi Numbers
2013 Assembly: BJP-33.3%, AAP-29.7%, Con-24.7%
2014 Lok Sabha : BJP-47%, AAP-33%, Con-15.2%
2015 Assembly : BJP-32.3%, AAP-54.5%,Con-9.7%
2016 MCD : BJP-37%, AAP-26%,Con-21%
2019 Lok Sabha : BJP -57%, AAP-18%, Con-22.46%
2020 Assembly : BJP+ 40%, AAP-54%, Con-4.3%

https://twitter.com/prasannavishy/statu ... 40256?s=20
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 082821.cms
Hanuman ji has blessed us: Kejriwal on AAP victory

OK .. Kujli is still thanking Hanuman ji. Looks like that part of the change will be retained unlike Raful whose temple runs last till campaign.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Yagnasri »

AK47 is already talking about the blessings of the Hanumanji on Delhi. So there is a fat chance he is going to go openly BIF. He will bid his time and try to make one more attempt to expand now that his base of operations in Delhi is secure and he can fund MSM with Delhi taxes.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter

That Hindus predominantly vote on secular issues and never exclusively on identity is beyond dispute and your data confirmed it . On the other hand, it is evident that a certain community votes en masse on identity issue
Hindu dominated constitutencies ( AAP vote % )

New Delhi - 64%
Burari - 64%
Sultanpur Majhra - 67%
Mangolpuri (Reserved ) - 59%
Karol Bagh (reserved ) - 65%
Patel Nagar (Reserved ) - 61%
Tilak Nagar - 64%
Rajinder Nagar - 57%

Muslim dominated constitutencies in Delhi (Winning AAP Voteshare)

Okhla (81.64%)
Matia Mahal (76.05%)
Chandni Chowk (66.94%)
Babarpur (65.26%)
Ballimaran (64.65%)
Seelampur (56.1%)
Mustafabad (53.47%)
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

pankajs wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 082821.cms
Hanuman ji has blessed us: Kejriwal on AAP victory

OK .. Kujli is still thanking Hanuman ji. Looks like that part of the change will be retained unlike Raful whose temple runs last till campaign.

pappu: mullah ki daud masjid thak :mrgreen:

Kujli thanking Hanuman ji is pure taqiya
Last edited by chetak on 11 Feb 2020 19:14, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Rony wrote:Delhi Numbers
2013 Assembly: BJP-33.3%, AAP-29.7%, Con-24.7%
2014 Lok Sabha : BJP-47%, AAP-33%, Con-15.2%
2015 Assembly : BJP-32.3%, AAP-54.5%,Con-9.7%
2016 MCD : BJP-37%, AAP-26%,Con-21%
2019 Lok Sabha : BJP -57%, AAP-18%, Con-22.46%
2020 Assembly : BJP+ 40%, AAP-54%, Con-4.3%

https://twitter.com/prasannavishy/statu ... 40256?s=20
Between the last and this Assembly elections,

AAP retained it vote share of ~ 54%
BJP gained ~7% to get its voteshare up to ~40%
BJP gained at the cost of CON and others.

A 14% voteshare differential in a straight contest will result in a landslide any day. BJP has not been able to break the AAP social coalition and that if a fact. The AAP coalition might have changed a bit but the overall remained steady.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

Chetak ji and others who are posting twitter tweets. Small request. when you quote twitter, can you post the twitter link ?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ArjunPandit »

neerajb wrote:IMHO delhites are better off financially than rest of India comparatively. I have seen many in my circle appreciative of freebies even when they dont need it. Many are crorepati types. Greed and selfishness has no ends it seems.
not just better off but have far better job and financial opportunities..and compared to most other metros delhi is not expensive at all..i have lived in gurgaon, noida,mumbai and bangalore. The bang for buck and quality of life is best in delhi..pollution and high property costs are the only sideeffects but that one can manage on rentals. Rentals are not that high...
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