2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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vijayk
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 07 May 2020 23:41

Ambar wrote:To those familiar with the region how bad is the situation in Vizag ? I truly hope its nowhere near as bad as Bhopal gas tragedy. Whatsapp is a true scourge of our times that spreads so much negativity through gory images of every tragedy.


10 people died and around 1000 hospitalized

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ShyamSP » 07 May 2020 23:56

Ambar wrote:To those familiar with the region how bad is the situation in Vizag ? I truly hope its nowhere near as bad as Bhopal gas tragedy. Whatsapp is a true scourge of our times that spreads so much negativity through gory images of every tragedy.


---
Toxic level in ppm (parts per million) posing immediate danger to life:
Styrene: 700
MIC: 3
https://twitter.com/ARanganathan72/stat ... 4966971393
---

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 08 May 2020 00:03

Sabotage threat vector should be something to look into with lot of talk of firms looking to move to India from China.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 08 May 2020 02:55

no comment


Image

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2020 05:36

The handwaving about migrant labourers is a good time to post this information I'd intended to post some months back, but forgot. The term 'Human Development Index' (HDI) usually gets used in this thread in the context of sarcasm about Kerala (rather deserved to an extent, and I say that as someone from there). But let's look at HDI in India as a dynamic metric over the years. Caveat: HDI can be calculated several ways, but the point here is to examine how it's evolved by one measure. This isn't about one state or another - so please leave such parochial concerns at the door.

List of Indian states and territories by HDI
Here's how India looked like in 1980. Basically - primitive conditions nationwide, essentially very low HDI (black) everywhere
Image
Here's 1991. Still solidly either low HDI (red) or very low HDI (black)
Image
Fast forward to turn of century: 2001 . No longer any states with extremely low HDI, but just one step above it
Image
Now to start of the last decade, 2011: still many states that are in the low HDI category (red)
Image

Now the latest data listed is 2017 figures reported in 2018. At that time All India HDI was 0.647 (medium), up from 0.609 in 2015.
Trends by state shows:
* There are no states in the low HDI category anymore
* Chandigarh is the first north Indian territory to make the high HDI group (>0.750)
* North India is not the main cause of low HDI anymore. Eastern India - the BH,JH,WB cluster - is.
* UP, once the main reason for low HDI, would now be in the upper middle HDI group (>0.600), probably on the same level as Andhra Pradesh 5-8 years ago.
* Southern states continue to dominate, with the lowest ranked southern state (AP with 0.650) better than the best eastern state.
* The northeast is seeing little movement over the last 5 years.

By 2022-24, India HDI will be >0.700, or the lower end of the high HDI tier. This is where China is today. These latest rankings being based on 2017 data, will not have the last three years worth of significant rural quality of life gains that showed up in GE2019 results. Right now, we're likely somewhere around 0.675-0.680 for all India.

The fundamental problems with the politics of poverty - something I posted during a detailed analysis of GE2019 - is that you need enough desperately poor people to appeal to with handout based politics, and there aren't enough desperately poor people in India anymore to win elections reliably with such politics.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 08 May 2020 11:17

chetak wrote:
Prashant Bushan wrote:Imagine how much....

Now that the courts are not toleraing his pet peeves, Prashant Bushan has now decided to use the only tool available at his hands. Twitter and the main stream media. Universal Basic Income implemented by Congress will just ensure that the money for the migrant poor would all be in the pockets of local Congress leaders. And that money would become the way to 'ask' for their votes. Using the Jan Dhan accounts etc a lot of poorer part of the society have already been given subsistance allowances. Congress and its fans seems to be still believing in doling out free money, and using that to garner voters. The same attitude - of give us free money, and don't ask for accounts is seen in socialist heavens (!?) like Kerala as well.

mukkan wrote:Kerala which has reduced infant mortality gets bigger score from 80s.

Kerala had some advantages even before she became a state in 1956. The two princely states; Travancore & Cochin had very far sighted rulers who did many things to improve the living standards. The governments (commie & congress) could leverage this and then run for higher goals. In Kerala, people from Northern part of the state still complain of poorer facilities. This area was just the "Malabar District" (one among many) of Madras state, and from Chennai it was a very distant land. It is from this area that even during COVID-19 lot of people had to go to neighbouring Mangalore for treatment etc.

Suraj wrote:HDI is a worthwhile metric to track, for all its imperfections

May be off topic to this thread; but we also need to see how states which had higher HDI would be able to sustain it for more years to come. For example; KL talks about 100% literacy. Now this was achieved in 1992-1993. Today it is 2020, 27 years. So there is no point in gloating about what happened 27 years back without now checking what are the tangible benefits which the 100% literacy actually brought into the state as well. From the limited sample size of Keralites I interact with; many of them are already in a complacent mode - we are the greatest! - and rely on HDI and 100% literacy to justify themselves.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Aditya_V » 08 May 2020 11:19

The biggest advantage of Kerala is its geography, it gets abundant rainfall and does not have water shortage to speak of, this itself a huge HDI advantage.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2020 11:42

Sachin wrote:May be off topic to this thread; but we also need to see how states which had higher HDI would be able to sustain it for more years to come. For example; KL talks about 100% literacy. Now this was achieved in 1992-1993. Today it is 2020, 27 years. So there is no point in gloating about what happened 27 years back without now checking what are the tangible benefits which the 100% literacy actually brought into the state as well. From the limited sample size of Keralites I interact with; many of them are already in a complacent mode - we are the greatest! - and rely on HDI and 100% literacy to justify themselves.

Now, once again I want to ask - Please stop thinking about “if Kerala is so good, why (insert)”, or Keralites arguing the opposite . It seems the original post was completely worthless because no one has the sense to think of what the significant change in HDI nationwide does for the country . Therefore I’ll be deleting that post and all responses soon. It’s clear posters have no interest in anything other that focus on their pet ideas about one state .

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 08 May 2020 11:46

15 Workers "sleeping" on the tracks get run over by a goods train.

Maharashtra: Goods Train Runs Over Migrant Workers In Aurangabad; 15 Dead
Indian railway tracks (Kashyap Matani/Pexels)
In a tragic incident at least 15 migrant workers, who were sleeping on the railway tracks, were run over by a goods train between Maharashtra's Jalna and Aurangabad, officials said on Friday (8 May).

A senior railway official confirmed that 15 migrant labourers were run over by a goods train between Jalna and Aurangabad of Nanded Divison of South Central Railway.

PM Narendra Modi has shared a tweet saying that he is extremely anguished to hear about the incident.



https://swarajyamag.com/insta/maharasht ... ad-15-dead

Very conveniently, the LeLi gang is rubbing their hands gleefully at the prospect of getting to blame Modi for the deaths of workers who rather foolishly slept on the tracks, tragic though it is. About 5 feet on either side could have saved their lives. Apparently they were walking alongside the tracks as walking on the road would have invited police scrutiny.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 08 May 2020 12:14

sajo wrote:15 Workers "sleeping" on the tracks get run over by a goods train.

I can understand the plight of the migrant labour. And being in a comfortable position (when compared to them) I have no locus standi to preach to them and ask them to stay put up at one place. But it takes a very high level of stupidity to actually walk on a railway track, and then decide to sleep on the tracks. This is lack of common sense, and no way connected to a person's poverty, education or current bad situation. Don't know how a Congress rule would have brought in more common sense.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 08 May 2020 12:39

Sachin wrote:
sajo wrote:15 Workers "sleeping" on the tracks get run over by a goods train.

I can understand the plight of the migrant labour. And being in a comfortable position (when compared to them) I have no locus standi to preach to them and ask them to stay put up at one place. But it takes a very high level of stupidity to actually walk on a railway track, and then decide to sleep on the tracks. This is lack of common sense, and no way connected to a person's poverty, education or current bad situation. Don't know how a Congress rule would have brought in more common sense.

This story doesn't make sense. To sleep on the track means, to sleep on the ballast. Assuming these are concrete bed rails, the sleeping posture would have been extremely uncomfortable with a part of the body on the rail and the rest of the body hanging loose from it.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Aditya_V » 08 May 2020 13:03

But I resent labelling everyone from Kerala which tends to happen- social stereotyping is also wrong. With regards to sleeping of the rails- my suspicion is that the migrants would have probably thought since no trains came they would be safer from snakes, scorpions, wild animals etc and they would wake up if a train is coming, I suspect they all just went into deep sleep due to tiredness and the Loco pilot not expecting people to be sleeping on the tracks would not have horned and by the time he picked them up in the headlight it would have been way too late to brake.

Tragedy, first yesterday restarting all chemical plants yesterday and to day this, these are bad times.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2020 13:05

No, it’s a problem . Petty and parochial resentment, and rhetoric prevents the forum from developing the necessary unemotional abstract throught needed to consider what happens to national politics when the vast majority of the population aren’t on the margins of destitution . They may be cash and asset poor still, but rapidly have gained access to things like formal banking, near universal toilet access, a massive basic healthcare program, power to all villages, road connectivity and if it goes to plan - universal clean water access. .

While the effect of each of these on the HDI number itself may wary, it’s a significant evolution that UP today is on the same level as AP in the early 2010s. Given such conditions, ‘rice bag politics’ becomes less and less effective - it works to a limited state level extent now, but only gets them a wear coalition government that’s easily toppled. It’s already shown in two GEs that an aspirational leader can dramatically defeat leftist dole populism.

So, most of those posts will be gone . The forum isn’t prepared for it .


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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nam » 08 May 2020 14:20

For me, HDI has only one criteria. Economic growth. As simple as that.

Education, health, scientific etc will automatically come with the availability of Money.

And trying to achieve economic growth will automatically bring HDI among the population. It is a simple cycle.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 08 May 2020 14:37

Aditya_V wrote:But I resent labelling everyone from Kerala which tends to happen- social stereotyping is also wrong. With regards to sleeping of the rails- my suspicion is that the migrants would have probably thought since no trains came they would be safer from snakes, scorpions, wild animals etc and they would wake up if a train is coming, I suspect they all just went into deep sleep due to tiredness and the Loco pilot not expecting people to be sleeping on the tracks would not have horned and by the time he picked them up in the headlight it would have been way too late to brake.

Tragedy, first yesterday restarting all chemical plants yesterday and to day this, these are bad times.

The story said they were avoiding the roads because the police would stop them. That means they were walking on the rails or alonside it through the day. Can't imagine that not a single train passed them by in either direction throughout the day for them to think that there was no risk to sleeping on the rails.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Aditya_V » 08 May 2020 15:24

Its possible that not a single train passed this route due to lockdown and they probably thought nothing will run in the night, they probably choose the rails for safety.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 08 May 2020 15:34

I can't imagine how the rails are even comfortable to sleep with the narrow concrete sleepers, the sharp stone ballast and the rails themselves. There are trees near the tracks and it would be most natural to sleep under them.

Image

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 08 May 2020 16:06

hanumadu wrote:I can't imagine how the rails are even comfortable to sleep with the narrow concrete sleepers, the sharp stone ballast and the rails themselves. There are trees near the tracks and it would be most natural to sleep under them.

Image

Sirji
Totally agree!!
Something doesn't quite meet the eye.
Cant put it past Sicular gang to have played some dirty trick!!
What if they were murdered and then put on track to be run over!!
Interesting if the PM report comes up with some other cause :eek: :eek:

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 08 May 2020 16:12

Further explaining the same, he said, “The disease is dangerous for a few categories of people. It is dangerous for old people, for those who have diabetes, hypertension etc. But other than that, it is not a dangerous disease. So we have to make a psychological change in the mind of the people. Currently, people are very scared. The government, if it wants to open up, will have to turn this fear into a sense of confidence
Adityaji:
Wonder who is coaching him!! :roll:

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby shravanp » 08 May 2020 17:33

Suraj wrote:No, it’s a problem . Petty and parochial resentment, and rhetoric prevents the forum from developing the necessary unemotional abstract throught needed to consider what happens to national politics when the vast majority of the population aren’t on the margins of destitution . They may be cash and asset poor still, but rapidly have gained access to things like formal banking, near universal toilet access, a massive basic healthcare program, power to all villages, road connectivity and if it goes to plan - universal clean water access. .

While the effect of each of these on the HDI number itself may wary, it’s a significant evolution that UP today is on the same level as AP in the early 2010s. Given such conditions, ‘rice bag politics’ becomes less and less effective - it works to a limited state level extent now, but only gets them a wear coalition government that’s easily toppled. It’s already shown in two GEs that an aspirational leader can dramatically defeat leftist dole populism.

So, most of those posts will be gone . The forum isn’t prepared for it .



Suraj san, your post is very much on the money. May I link another dimension that is an appendage to 'rice bag politics' ? There's a post on balkanization in viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6845&start=4760#p2429992. Its very concerning post and improving overall HDI in the country could prevent that.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 08 May 2020 18:38

you need enough desperately poor people to appeal to with handout based politics, and there aren't enough desperately poor people in India anymore to win elections reliably with such politics.


I don't think that's entirely been proved true. Delhi, for ex, has a decent HDI and by all metrics has one of the highest per capita income in the nation, but yet the lure of free electricity and muddy water was sufficient for AAP to sweep consecutive assembly elections. Remember this is the same Delhi that overwhelmingly voted for BJP in the GE. While the labor party in UK and democrats in US prove that the politics of handouts is an evergreen strategy, in India atleast to reduce the impact of such cunning schemes not just GDP or HDI but the income inequality or GINI coefficient needs to come down. We see the inequality is higher in metros where the per capita income is also higher, unless this disparity goes down ,a large section of the society can still be attracted by handouts.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 08 May 2020 18:43

About the tragedy of migrant workers getting killed on railway tracks, knowing this was in MH i have little faith of a fair and thorough investigation. Like many others have said above people walking on tracks is one thing but sleeping on tracks is something i've never heard of before. Even the poorest of the poor have cellphones these days, i hope if they ever investigate the deaths, the authorities must talk to each one of the victims families about the time and location of last conversations, see where the phones were last active and whom they were in contact with on that fateful day. After the manufactured migrant crisis in Delhi exacerbated by Kejri and the shenanigans in Mumbai last month where "migrants" appeared outside a local train station with no luggage, i wouldn't put anything past BIF at this point.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 08 May 2020 19:06

Suraj wrote:The handwaving about migrant labourers is a good time to post this information I'd intended to post some months back, but forgot. The term 'Human Development Index' (HDI) usually gets used in this thread in the context of sarcasm about Kerala (rather deserved to an extent, and I say that as someone from there). But let's look at HDI in India as a dynamic metric over the years. Caveat: HDI can be calculated several ways, but the point here is to examine how it's evolved by one measure. This isn't about one state or another - so please leave such parochial concerns at the door.


Your efforts are timely and wise.

However I doubt if HDI has any reliable correlation with stopping "handouts". Sure, once the economy (and therefore HDI - nothing is sustainable without money) starts to run, people are no longer swayed by free rice but they could be swayed by the next level of handouts like "free electricity, free water". Handout/subsidy politics is alive and well in every democratic setup including developed countries like USA. If the Delhi BJP has nothing bolder and more beneficial to offer in a credible manner, then yes people will go for the AAP handout. I would bet that someone like, say Amit Shah, was the "CM face" for a Delhi election and presented a strong plan for the NCT, the party would win.

That is not to say that the NDA government shouldn't do handouts. Handouts, when carefully chosen and helpful to the public, could be beneficial. If the government is raising higher revenues, this isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I am also not sure HDI is a leading indicator. Is it ? At best I feel it is a coincident one. To me, statewise trends of real GDP per capita, income inequality, job creation, migration, etc would be better indicators. I am sure there would be literature comparing/correlating these metrics.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 08 May 2020 19:19

nandakumar wrote:
Sachin wrote:I can understand the plight of the migrant labour. And being in a comfortable position (when compared to them) I have no locus standi to preach to them and ask them to stay put up at one place. But it takes a very high level of stupidity to actually walk on a railway track, and then decide to sleep on the tracks. This is lack of common sense, and no way connected to a person's poverty, education or current bad situation. Don't know how a Congress rule would have brought in more common sense.

This story doesn't make sense. To sleep on the track means, to sleep on the ballast. Assuming these are concrete bed rails, the sleeping posture would have been extremely uncomfortable with a part of the body on the rail and the rest of the body hanging loose from it.


It is absurd that any sane person would sleep on the railway tracks (as opposed to by the side of them or between two sets of rail lines etc. The only explanation is that they were murdered by being forced/drugged etc to do so.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby mappunni » 08 May 2020 19:42

Suraj wrote:
mappunni wrote:What's the use having great HDI when states like Kerala cannot provide any meaningful employment? The only employment Kerala Commies can provide is Nooku Coolie!

I don’t think such comments are either constructive or helpful . Shall I turn it around and put words in your mouth of the form ‘so you prefer to live in an eastern Bihar village instead ?’ No, that doesn’t make any sense and neither does your argument. HDI is a worthwhile metric to track, for all its imperfections . It provides a multifactoral picture of the basic quality of life.

The failure of a state on other measures doesn’t invalidate its success in this regard. I already requested that people avoid parochial arguments like this and look at the larger picture of how it impacts the nation, but youve chosen to deliberately ignore that. What’s the matter ? Same for the other poster running off about alcoholism and lifestyle diseases. Can’t you for once put aside such tactical brilliance ? It seems you think the original post was a verbose ‘Kerala rah rah!’ cheerleading effort . You’re wrong . Don’t sidetrack the conv further please.

HDI matters a lot as an indicator of how high up the basic Maslow scale people are . I grew up in KL and outside KL . I remember as an impressionable youngster being jarred by the sheer difference in basic quality of life between KL and central/north India around late 80s to mid 90s. As those figures show, back then Kerala was the only state with moderately high HDI and those parts were solidly low to very low HDI, and the difference was stark and disturbing to a young kid.


Saar being a Mallu myself who has never lived in Kerala with visits yearly for Kummati and this is the image of Kerala to the outsider. When 8th-grade education is considered literate, I do not what else to comprehend. But all the HDI is of no use if the people of Kerala have to look beyond its borders for a living wage!

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 08 May 2020 20:07

Suraj wrote:No, it’s a problem . Petty and parochial resentment, and rhetoric prevents the forum from developing the necessary unemotional abstract throught needed to consider what happens to national politics when the vast majority of the population aren’t on the margins of destitution . They may be cash and asset poor still, but rapidly have gained access to things like formal banking, near universal toilet access, a massive basic healthcare program, power to all villages, road connectivity and if it goes to plan - universal clean water access. .

While the effect of each of these on the HDI number itself may wary, it’s a significant evolution that UP today is on the same level as AP in the early 2010s. Given such conditions, ‘rice bag politics’ becomes less and less effective - it works to a limited state level extent now, but only gets them a wear coalition government that’s easily toppled. It’s already shown in two GEs that an aspirational leader can dramatically defeat leftist dole populism.

So, most of those posts will be gone . The forum isn’t prepared for it .


\

No problem, why not quietly delete your posts. There is no need to play the martyr.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Krita » 08 May 2020 20:14

Langoor ke haath mein Angoor, to define 303 seats and BJP. What a bunch of pusillanimous Jokers.
I am going to send them bangles via Amazon.

Govt asks Twitter to remove tweet by BJP MP Tejasvi Surya linking terrorists and Islam
timesnownews.com

https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/article/govt-asks-twitter-to-remove-tweet-by-bjp-mp-tejasvi-surya-linking-terrorists-and-islam/589051?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Uttam » 08 May 2020 20:49

Suraj wrote:No, it’s a problem . Petty and parochial resentment, and rhetoric prevents the forum from developing the necessary unemotional abstract throught needed to consider what happens to national politics when the vast majority of the population aren’t on the margins of destitution . They may be cash and asset poor still, but rapidly have gained access to things like formal banking, near universal toilet access, a massive basic healthcare program, power to all villages, road connectivity and if it goes to plan - universal clean water access. .

While the effect of each of these on the HDI number itself may wary, it’s a significant evolution that UP today is on the same level as AP in the early 2010s. Given such conditions, ‘rice bag politics’ becomes less and less effective - it works to a limited state level extent now, but only gets them a wear coalition government that’s easily toppled. It’s already shown in two GEs that an aspirational leader can dramatically defeat leftist dole populism.

So, most of those posts will be gone . The forum isn’t prepared for it .


Suraj: Please don't delete your post and associated discussion on HDI. To me it was one of the most enlightening post. I have always thought about the difference in India I visit now versus the one I left 20 years ago. Your post about HDI helped me quantify it. Yes, many people including me sometimes make parochial and limiting comments. That's all the more reason to post your well researched and informed posts.

Now, here is my take about HDI changes over time. The three main long-term drivers of HDI are
1) Natural resources, which includes mines and mineral, productivity of agricultural land and most importantly geographic location for suitability for trade.
2) Political stability coupled with good governance
3) Exposure to external aggression

Higher natural resources like agricultural land and mines and mineral are not necessarily booms. Sometime they serve a attraction for external aggressors, which was the case for most of India over the last 1000 years. Political stability and good governance is a shifting item and changes from time to time. Any comparison of states should be done in context of drivers of HDI.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 08 May 2020 20:51

Tejaswai was a target of the Indian Islami-Paki-Fake arab-jobless arab campaign to attack Hindus in the Middle East. Sometime in 2015 he had retweeted Tarek Fatah's tweet on muslim women being used only for procreation , although he later deleted the tweet the commie-islami gang used a screenshot of the original tweet and attacked him using their hired arab guns. I don't understand why GoI wants twitter to delete a tweet by an MP of the ruling party when they can easily ask him to delete it . Either ways one of the first thing Modi needs to do after the pandemic scare subsides is to shuffle the ministries. Prakash Javdekar shouldn't be let within 10 miles of I&B ministry office.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2020 21:27

mappunni wrote:Saar being a Mallu myself who has never lived in Kerala with visits yearly for Kummati and this is the image of Kerala to the outsider. When 8th-grade education is considered literate, I do not what else to comprehend. But all the HDI is of no use if the people of Kerala have to look beyond its borders for a living wage!

You're making a mistake here by not challenging yourself enough, something other posters are also doing. You're thinking "HDI"... "Kerala"... {whatever you think about Kerala}. That's the lazy thought process, where you work from the very first mental frame of reference you have to the term HDI. You're capable of much better than that, you have to come up with better. There are others who are asking more pertinent questions instead of being stuck on Kerala.
sanjaykumar wrote:No problem, why not quietly delete your posts. There is no need to play the martyr.

I'm doing what a moderator does - shape the discussion towards useful topics and away from noise. Your prior response - as well as several others - were off topic. In your case it was about discussion of other countries, and in others, it was focusing on just one state. Both these concerns have their own separate threads.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2020 21:52

Ambar wrote:I don't think that's entirely been proved true. Delhi, for ex, has a decent HDI and by all metrics has one of the highest per capita income in the nation, but yet the lure of free electricity and muddy water was sufficient for AAP to sweep consecutive assembly elections.

KLDubey wrote:However I doubt if HDI has any reliable correlation with stopping "handouts". Sure, once the economy (and therefore HDI - nothing is sustainable without money) starts to run, people are no longer swayed by free rice but they could be swayed by the next level of handouts like "free electricity, free water". Handout/subsidy politics is alive and well in every democratic setup including developed countries like USA.

Yes! I'm trying to bring the conversation to this level at least, so this can be discussed. It was being repeatedly sidetracked. Higher HDI changes the nature of politics, but not necessarily for the better. Here's the reality of the country from those maps:

1980s: The country was not just desperately poor, but almost nationwide, had quality of life no better than sub-Saharan Africa. Rather scary to think of - those born and growing up middle class then don't really realize that even amidst their own basic life, they were in a privileged bubble.
1990s: Some incremental improvement, but the country is mostly still black - superimposing population density over that map. Solidly BIMARU/eastern states dominated. It is under these circumstances that liberalization began - where a country
2001: The general situation is still dire. There's no longer any black, but shades of red that are only 1-2 levels better, i.e. the lower end of low HDI. The 'India Shining' politics was tried under these circumstances and worked as well as a lead balloon.
2011: In my opinion, this map is what most people here would guess was India's HDI map in the 1990s. But no, things were much worse then.

However the 2011 map is misleading. It's not how things are now. UP and MP no longer sit in the low HDI (red) group. The concept of BIMARU doesn't really exist anymore - RJ, MP and UP are all in a different category from BH, JH and WB.

Does this all mean politics will get better ? No, I don't think that's a given either. We're aware of the middle income trap concept. This isn't just about economics. It's largely about politics, since political economy is a construct. The middle income trap is the result of the development of regressive politics that prevent broadbased human development and growth.

It happens when the privileged class make a deal with the poor class to keep them in power in exchange for freebies that are relatively affordable due to existence of a sufficiently developed economy, but which cannot invest in growing further than a point because the profits are not reinvested, but instead primarily ploughed back into dole politics.

Continued in another post...

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2020 22:02

Pt 2

What will happen across the country when state after state moves from low HDI tier to middle HDI tier is that unsustainable rice bag politics will end. This actually is a major accomplishment because it denotes that national politics has evolved enough to direct the economic fruits of a very small tier of growth based economic activity, to invest in the development of the broad group of people (rather than just pay them off to win the next election - the reason Amethi still looked like the 1980s until recently).

This is what happened in 2014-2019. We didn't see huge topline growth, but many basic quality of life metrics changed dramatically. In 2014, approx 60% of rural India had no access to toilets, electricity, road connectivity, cooking fuel and banking. That's 25 years after liberalization and after 10+ years of 8-10% GDP growth. Where did that go ? It was sunk into unsustainable dole that doesn't move the needle enough. UBI in itself doesn't give people light, roads or toilets, unless they burn the money, tie it to their feet or use it as TP, none of which are recommended.

Between 2014-2019 saw less topline growth, but massive improvement in basic QoL metrics - reflected in the political results seen in GE2019. Universal piped water access if delivered in the intended timeframe, will be the next major step. There's no longer press about 'X hundred million people live on less that $2/day', because that number isn't particularly impressive anymore. Most of India has quite a bit better than 'sub-Saharan level of development'. 'Why don't you spend money on building toilets ?' no longer makes much sense because we already spend ~$10 billion on Swacch Bharat Mission to do just that.

Once we get to this point (we're almost on the cusp of it) what's next ? Things don't necessarily get better. Now there's enough industrial/services activity to sustain mid-tier HDI nationwide, but can it move up further ? That is heavily tied to how the privileged and lowest class interacts. You can have it the Delhi way, where the privileged class uses the lowest class as a captive votebank using local demographic/religious faultlines. Or you can have something like UP, which despite its long term ills, now speaks the language of "I don't care what your background and caste/religion are and won't give you anything special. Can you work hard ? If so, you'll earn the fruit of it and I'll see to it that you do".

The gist of the HDI pictures is that ... we're getting to the point where avoiding the politics of the middle income trap will dominate the discourse of this decade. That is the point I was trying to make. It is not at all a given that we''ll avoid it, and there's a real risk we will get stuck in a Brazil like polity of a semi-developed country known for what seems like some nice developed cities and infrastructure, but with its own version of favelas and underprivileged classes.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 08 May 2020 23:28

Ambar wrote:Tejaswai was a target of the Indian Islami-Paki-Fake arab-jobless arab campaign to attack Hindus in the Middle East. Sometime in 2015 he had retweeted Tarek Fatah's tweet on muslim women being used only for procreation , although he later deleted the tweet the commie-islami gang used a screenshot of the original tweet and attacked him using their hired arab guns. I don't understand why GoI wants twitter to delete a tweet by an MP of the ruling party when they can easily ask him to delete it . Either ways one of the first thing Modi needs to do after the pandemic scare subsides is to shuffle the ministries. Prakash Javdekar shouldn't be let within 10 miles of I&B ministry office.


India is getting very nasty white media attacks, not to mention Islamic media attacks starting with Gulf news, and so I guess ModiJi had to do something to be seen as 'secular'. I don't agree with him, but I am not in power, he is, and he probably has better input on what is hurting India's interests. But at the same time, that retweet by Tejasvai on Arab women was unnecessary. He could have just posted his response to the orchestrated attacks on Hindus and professional manner. His retweet drew unnecessary attention. Plus you see it gives BIF a handle to do equivalence between hard core Islamists and off the the cuff remarks like this.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 09 May 2020 00:39

Rsatchi wrote:^^^
'At each stop he ( meaning Khalilzad), will urge support for immediate reduction in violence, yada yada'
so In Delhi will he ask us to stop hitting Pakis???
What reduction in violence can we offer???
And later he is going to Slumbad!!!
I think Pakis want Khan to ask Namo to give them breathing space and not keep the LOC hot!!!
Pretty sure there is some serious things going on at the border.
And [b]Baba Banaras[/b] is off line to give any second hand tidbits!!! as well.


For your reading pleasure...
https://mobile.twitter.com/drapr007

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kit » 09 May 2020 00:40

CRamS wrote:
Ambar wrote:Tejaswai was a target of the Indian Islami-Paki-Fake arab-jobless arab campaign to attack Hindus in the Middle East. Sometime in 2015 he had retweeted Tarek Fatah's tweet on muslim women being used only for procreation , although he later deleted the tweet the commie-islami gang used a screenshot of the original tweet and attacked him using their hired arab guns. I don't understand why GoI wants twitter to delete a tweet by an MP of the ruling party when they can easily ask him to delete it . Either ways one of the first thing Modi needs to do after the pandemic scare subsides is to shuffle the ministries. Prakash Javdekar shouldn't be let within 10 miles of I&B ministry office.


India is getting very nasty white media attacks, not to mention Islamic media attacks starting with Gulf news, and so I guess ModiJi had to do something to be seen as 'secular'. I don't agree with him, but I am not in power, he is, and he probably has better input on what is hurting India's interests. But at the same time, that retweet by Tejasvai on Arab women was unnecessary. He could have just posted his response to the orchestrated attacks on Hindus and professional manner. His retweet drew unnecessary attention. Plus you see it gives BIF a handle to do equivalence between hard core Islamists and off the the cuff remarks like this.



paid for journalism by ISI sponsors, a few journalists in India have actually written about with a recent one for 500 USD for a hit paid article in a well-known magazine, he turned it down.

India has far more resources in this direction , just imagine where a few millions can go !

Sponsored journalism and cyber attacks are what ISI is concentrating on, cheap and may be effective, India's retaliation must be ruthless in these domains, no holdbacks

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 09 May 2020 00:44

CRamS wrote:
Ambar wrote:Tejaswai was a target of the Indian Islami-Paki-Fake arab-jobless arab campaign to attack Hindus in the Middle East. Sometime in 2015 he had retweeted Tarek Fatah's tweet on muslim women being used only for procreation , although he later deleted the tweet the commie-islami gang used a screenshot of the original tweet and attacked him using their hired arab guns. I don't understand why GoI wants twitter to delete a tweet by an MP of the ruling party when they can easily ask him to delete it . Either ways one of the first thing Modi needs to do after the pandemic scare subsides is to shuffle the ministries. Prakash Javdekar shouldn't be let within 10 miles of I&B ministry office.


India is getting very nasty white media attacks, not to mention Islamic media attacks starting with Gulf news, and so I guess ModiJi had to do something to be seen as 'secular'. I don't agree with him, but I am not in power, he is, and he probably has better input on what is hurting India's interests. But at the same time, that retweet by Tejasvai on Arab women was unnecessary. He could have just posted his response to the orchestrated attacks on Hindus and professional manner. His retweet drew unnecessary attention. Plus you see it gives BIF a handle to do equivalence between hard core Islamists and off the the cuff remarks like this.


His tweet as i recall was just a retweet of Tarek Fatah's, and this was in 2015 when Tejaswi Surya was just another recent college grad kid from Bangalore. After the death of Anant Kumar, the incumbent MP from South Blr, everyone thought it would be his widow who'll be the next BJP candidate but were all taken for surprise when Tejaswi Surya , a 27 year old with little political backing was chosen as the candidate. I , for one am glad BJP took such a bold decision because Tejaswi has been an absolute revelation from the class of 2019.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 09 May 2020 01:10

CRamS wrote:
Ambar wrote:Tejaswai was a target of the Indian Islami-Paki-Fake arab-jobless arab campaign to attack Hindus in the Middle East. Sometime in 2015 he had retweeted Tarek Fatah's tweet on muslim women being used only for procreation , although he later deleted the tweet the commie-islami gang used a screenshot of the original tweet and attacked him using their hired arab guns. I don't understand why GoI wants twitter to delete a tweet by an MP of the ruling party when they can easily ask him to delete it . Either ways one of the first thing Modi needs to do after the pandemic scare subsides is to shuffle the ministries. Prakash Javdekar shouldn't be let within 10 miles of I&B ministry office.


India is getting very nasty white media attacks, not to mention Islamic media attacks starting with Gulf news, and so I guess ModiJi had to do something to be seen as 'secular'. I don't agree with him, but I am not in power, he is, and he probably has better input on what is hurting India's interests. But at the same time, that retweet by Tejasvai on Arab women was unnecessary. He could have just posted his response to the orchestrated attacks on Hindus and professional manner. His retweet drew unnecessary attention. Plus you see it gives BIF a handle to do equivalence between hard core Islamists and off the the cuff remarks like this.


CRamS ji,

we are increasingly making a mistake on the forum by thinking that people are not speaking the "truth", perhaps mistaking the "truth" as perceived by us in vivid contrast to the "truth" as projected by them.

these are the times of a savvy and technology driven but low attention span generation, the era of post truth and the age of willful ignorance in the internet media space when “alternative facts” replace actual facts, and feelings have more weight than evidence.

no one has the time to check or verify the "truth" so post-truth is very much an "in your face" phenomenon and it is as real as it gets

The concept of post-truth has been in existence for almost a decade now and it was used most recently and notably during the trump presidential election in the United States and since then to vilify him thereafter on a daily basis.

Modi recognized this a long time ago and thus his minimal interaction with the malicious media. Foreign media and our own local presstitutes have gone after him using vicious “alternative facts” desperately needing to provoke a response from him but he has never obliged them

the word post-truth has also become associated with a particular noun, in the phrase post-truth politics.

More info is available on the net.

here is an example

Post-truth is an assertion of ideological supremacy by which its practitioners try to compel someone to believe something regardless of the evidence. Yet post-truth didn't begin with the 2016 election; the denial of scientific facts about smoking, evolution, vaccines, and climate change offers a road map for more widespread fact denial. Add to this the wired-in cognitive biases that make us feel that our conclusions are based on good reasoning even when they are not, the decline of traditional media and the rise of social media, and the emergence of fake news as a political tool, and we have the ideal conditions for post-truth.

the development of the post-truth phenomenon from science denial through the rise of “fake news,” from our psychological blind spots to the public's retreat into “information silos.”

we can fight post-truth, and that the first step in fighting post-truth is to understand it.



Post-truth is an adjective defined as ‘relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief’.


Tejaswi has become an icon and a popular social influencer and thought leader in the right wing space. He is articulate, fluent, persuasively combative and very presentable in speech and manner. So this is just a coordinated attempt to take him down and to limit his social media growth, visibility, credibility and relevance.

twitter wouldn't dare ban an Indian MP and that too from the ruling party and so others seemingly have gone to bat for twitter.

so, the GoI, getting twitter to remove the post is a stroke of genius.

shows their power and sends out a warning as well that the GoI can do much more if they so desire.

cracked jack and his arab investor pals would have got the message loud and clear

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vamsee » 09 May 2020 05:23

Suraj garu,

since we are on HDI topic, I wrote a twitter thread on HDI few months ago. Reproducing it here with some edits. The only true wealth of nation is its high skilled citizens! That's why Germany & Japan were able to very quickly bounce back from devastating world war II where as we still remain in poverty despite escaping WW II.
====================

Human Development Index or HDI is a measure used to categorize the human development of a country. Countries fall in to 4 categories. Low, Medium, High & Very High. India should eventually aim for Very High category. We are currently in Medium category and should aim for "very high".
HDI has 3 components. Life Expectancy at birth, Education & Per capita income measured in PPP terms. Since this index has 3 components, it is possible that a country may “compensate” low value in one of the 3 components with high values in other 2 components.

let’s see how far India is from graduating to High or Very high category nation in each of the individual components.
Countries between 0.8-1.0 are very high, 0.7-0.799 are high and 0.550-0.699 are medium. India with a score of 0.647 is in medium category.Let’s explore this number.

Let’s check the first component of the index. Right now, Life expectancy at birth for India is 69.4 years. This gives us a value of 0.76 for the life expectancy index which is already in High category but not very high category. If Life expectancy at birth increases to 72 years, India will hit 0.8 (very high) in terms of this category. It may probably take another 5-8 years before we hit very high level in this index. We need to work on further lowering Infant & under 5 mortality rate. It should go to less than 10 per 1000 live births.

Lets check the other component. Per capita income in PPP terms. For this year our PCI is $6829 (ed: its $9027 in 2020) which gives us a score of 0.638. In order to hit high level in this category we need to have a PCI of $10,300. We will probably hit this number by 2024-25. In order to reach very high level in this category, our per capita needs to rise to $20,000 which is around 3 times our current PCI. It will take around 10-15 years of good growth to take us there.

The third component is Education index which is composed of Mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling. This is what surprised me the most. For 2019 we have the mean years of schooling of just 6.5 years(0.4333 which puts us in “low” category!). and expected years of schooling is 12.3 years which translates to a score of 0.6833. This gives us the total Education index of 0.558 which is barely into medium category. We must seriously focus on rural education & female education. We have a long and hard journey ahead.

--Vamsee

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 09 May 2020 08:40

The entire HD report for 2019 is here, with the three metrics shown separately for each country in the tables at the end. The report itself is a real bore.

http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2019.pdf

I think the HDI is a fundamentally flawed index. It's probably quite easy for academic economists to just come up with some numbers using loosely defined metric (essentially because they are very convenient to measure).

Many reasons why HDI is poorly conceived and is a very bad "leading indicator":

- It is arbitrarily using an equal geometric mean weight for the three factors. The weights should be decided instead by first "fitting"/"training" the model with a selected number of countries for which detailed data on many measures is available.

- The three factors are NOT independent, and double-counting is rife in the methodology. For example, income has a strong correlation with both access to education and healthcare/hygiene (life expectancy). The three are circularly connected and each bolsters the other. Seems fundamentally silly to double count/triple count, and that too with equal weightage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_curve

and a random example from many on the internet:

https://massbudget.org/reports/images/1072/image8.PNG

- The "education/literacy" category simply measures number of years without any measure of quality of education and its outcomes. Typical "babu" approach, which is probably why Indians like Haq (Punjabi), Desai (Gujju), Sen (Bangali) et al found it attractive. :D In India there are millions of high school and "BA pass" graduates who can barely read and write and are unemployable except for very low level jobs...and also reasonably well educated graduates who are unemployed because there are no jobs. Ultimately, education has little bearing on "well being" unless it is somehow connected to your economic condition. In other words, the type of jobs that are obtained after schooling. Again, this shows up in the income category.

- Its not clear whether the education and literacy measures are using the entire adult population. In that case, it is basically penalizing a country now for where it was 2-4 decades ago. That may be OK as a historical measure, but it has much less practical value as a leading indicator. For example, it makes no sense to count 40-70 year olds in the literacy measure because they were in school (or not!) 30-50 years ago when education was very poor in India and obviously will not going back to school now. It should rather be counting the section of the population who are now in school and now entering the workforce.

- Similar set of issues with life expectancy as a health measure.

Personally I would prefer an more dynamic and leading indicator. Time to ditch HDI.


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