2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 02:37

Many of this mandis, if not most, don't have any sanitation facilities like restrooms.

There should be code to have basic health and sanitation facilities onsite.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nam » 19 May 2020 02:46

Big retail companies should form contract farming deals with the farmer. Training them on high gain methods of farming, recommend seeds, so that there is uniform produce for a specific company.

The company can arrange for crop damage insurance etc for the produce. Collection trucks to take the goods.

The retail companies can then sell it to whomever they want.

Farmers can choose which contract they would want to buy.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 19 May 2020 03:47

Would it be accurate to say a significant number of state and national level politicos have/had at least indirect stakes in APMCs ? E.g. the Pawar family ?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 19 May 2020 04:17

Suraj wrote:Would it be accurate to say a significant number of state and national level politicos have/had at least indirect stakes in APMCs ? E.g. the Pawar family ?

There was an article posted here some time ago that talked of the total domination of certain agricultural produce by one communiy and the multiple links to terrorism, hawala and off course Pawarful people.
We know of the Sugar lobby in Marathwada, the article had mentioned the banana lobby, Sand lobby in AP & Karnataka (though sand is not an agricultural produce); so yes I would agree with the above premise.

Rather than only Agricultural produce, each State and Regions within the State has some Commodity that is directly or indirectly controlled by political group(s). Sandalwood, "Beef", Sand, Coal, Lumber, ityadi and the worst of them all Human Trafficking.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 19 May 2020 07:32

Suraj wrote:Would it be accurate to say a significant number of state and national level politicos have/had at least indirect stakes in APMCs ? E.g. the Pawar family ?

Yes, using the cash flow of APMCs is a common way to establish local leaders, who, in turn, empower/provide the cash to the state-level leaders. The ability to dictate prices (which obviously includes malai that can be skimmed off the top) also means political power over farmer groups, since the agents are mostly politically-aligned cartels. This is especially true of the family setups that masquerade as regional political parties. In other words, every APMC is a cash cow for everyone involved, farmers excepted. It also explains the reluctance of every state (including BJP rules ones till recently) to implement the model APMC Act of 2003, which had many of the ideas announced by NS last week.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 May 2020 10:07

Suraj wrote:Would it be accurate to say a significant number of state and national level politicos have/had at least indirect stakes in APMCs ? E.g. the Pawar family ?



In most states, this APMC mafia is an exclusive and a jealously guarded club that historically almost always has been under the control of the congi goons.

in MAH, all of them basically wanted fadnavis out because he had quietly and without fanfare, broken the backs of the APMC mafias and majorly diluted the hold of family politicos over the cooperative banks, sugar mill co-ops thus controlling the major chunk of local votes.

this was their tried and tested source of black money and through that their power because almost all transactions here are cash and carry.

with larger companies entering the fray, the black component will reduce gradually over time.

So we should expect that some of the unscrupulous larger players may try to corner the market using the age old APMC methods by forming cartels and controlling prices.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 19 May 2020 10:23

Thanks, folks . Thought as much. It would be a very good time to create forwardable graphics listing the ties of everyone who had been controlling their local APMCs - when mango farmers have new found access to market based system, it’s good to show who used to keep them down .

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 19 May 2020 17:54

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/n ... 39471.html
Looks like 'Mata ka bhulava aaya hain' and all 'Raag Durbari's' have confirmed attendance!!

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 May 2020 21:30

BJP hasn't thrown out the mafia's loyal babuz even after 6 yrs. Though supporters repeatedly begged them to do it.

what part of moving into a new home, one that is clean, sanitized and ideologically as well as a proactively supportive network, one that has been swept clean of all the previous trappings, cobwebs and ideological detritious of an enemy who is and has always been implacably opposed to you, hasn't thr BJP leadership understood.

The congis, even in their wildest dreams, just could not have expected anything better.

overground naxals are still "lecturing" at the IAS academy as part of the training for the new recruits and the selection process is so skewed to accommodate leftist candidates as well as those from babuz dynasties stretching back to tens of decades.

At every step and also in all vital and directly voter facing ministries, the govt's agenda is being stymied on every single occasion and every effort of this govt is being mercilessly thwarted by mere vengeful babuz.

"Mistake" after "mistake", sly f-up after sly f-up, One wonders why the leadership with 303 seats in parliament has lost the plot so completely.

No babuz would have even dared to anything similar during a congi regime. The backlash for such gaddari would have been swift, brutal and professionally fatal

and yet we have RSS schooled ministers themselves wilfully and disloyally giving interviews to runditv and the like.

this is the fatal flaw of the civilization. crapping on one's own doorstep and cozying up to the sworn enemy.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ashokk » 19 May 2020 23:10

Priyanka's aide, UP Congress chief booked for 'forgery'
LUCKNOW: The police have lodged an FIR against Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Kumar Lallu and Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra's personal secretary Sandeep Singh for alleged forgery over a list of buses to ferry stranded migrant workers back to the state.
Lallu and Singh have been booked on charges of giving false information to public servant, dishonesty, forgery of valuable security and forgery for purpose of cheating.
The case was registered on a complaint by Road Transport Officer (RTO) R P Trivedi, the police said.

#UPDATE FIR has been registered by Uttar Pradesh Police against Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's personal secretary Sandeep… https://t.co/1NAUHfL8az
— ANI (@ANI) 1589900272000

In the FIR, Trivedi said that the list of buses promised by the Congress was found to be incorrect, the police said.
Lucknow police commissioner Sujeet Pandey said that a probe has been initiated.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 20 May 2020 00:10

chetak wrote:BJP hasn't thrown out the mafia's loyal babuz even after 6 yrs. Though supporters repeatedly begged them to do it.


Since this comes up almost every page, i am genuinely curious how do you get rid of all the bureaucrats who are a part of a system which was formed, incubated and raised during the imperial era and grew stronger and larger through the tutelage of one party for a good 60+ years post independence ? Just because the ruling party has 303 seats in the parliament, can they dismantle IAS/IPS system which for over a century has served as a backbone of Indian bureaucracy and law enforcement ? Many under performers and overtly congress loyalists are routinely transferred as we saw in MP and Karnataka , and i am sure this takes place at the center too, but i simply think its impractical to suggest the babucracy needs to be purged through and through because BJP has majority. For the nationalists to build a ecosystem, you need to hold power for an extended period of time, instill that fear that they will be around and in power for a long time, create new institutions from ground up and impart your ideology from the very roots of such institutions, this is what the brits did and congress continued the dividends of which they are reaping to this day.

Modi and Amit Shah are not "babes in the woods" naive, they did not control GJ for nearly 2 decades by being stupid, they are all too familiar with the bureaucratic IEDs and how to dismantle them . As for other ministers, everyone knows many in the 2nd rung of administration are made up of goofy idiots, but there is a good bench strength from elected officials and technocrats ( like S Jaishankar and Ranjan Gogai) that BJP can and will tap in future. Trust me, the opposition parties are full of clowns and idiots right to the top but it just happens that they've been in power for so long that its easy for them to make everyone around them be a little afraid.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 20 May 2020 04:03

Ambar, nice post and you are absolutely right. No one is doubting that there exists an ecosystem that has been consistent in its sabotaging many of the initiatives, however, it isn't easy to throw everyone out when one doesn't have the required bench strength. I had met someone close to the corridors of power in 2018 and he mentioned that they had tried things that didn't work out, due to the foundations and extensive reach within India as well as outside India of the ecosystem.
Also mentioned that one had to pick and choose one's fights. In addition, there were many Nationalistic folks in Babudom.

A classmate of mine is very active in BJP and close to a few Union Ministers, he said the same thing about how one of the Minister's had told him that it had taken a good 3-4 years to get the understanding of the Ministry. Till then there where diminishing instances of certain Babus trying to run rings around the Elected Official. Don't want to reveal how he had started a method to track what the Babus were telling him and then holding them to their words. The Babudom and the Congress ecosystems were self-serving quid pro quo ecosystems that would help each other, all for a piece of the pie.

So yes, we can suggest solutions, we have the right to criticise folks, whether we should exercise those rights is upto each individual.

I have always wondered how in erstwhile East Germany, the Soviet forces had installed many of the top leadership of the previous regime - Nazis. Power vaccum is dangerous, I suppose.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 20 May 2020 04:47

There's an old article in I think Open Magazine, about Modi's early days in Gujarat. During his first term, he was typically very hands off from the bureaucracy, in a manner similar to how he acted in his first term as PM. He preferred to listen quietly rather than step in with a sledgehammer on day 1. While he got a lot done (reflected in his successive wins in 2007 and 2012 there), it took quite a bit of time to listen carefully and understand the bureaucracy, and then proceed to pick it apart to do his bidding.

The bureaucracy at the central level is probably orders more complex to wrap his head around and reassemble to suit his executive needs. I don't expect this aspect to change quickly, and it is a reflection of the relative independence the bureaucracy retains, even as political dispensations come and go. Angrily asking what use is 303 seats is pointless - that bureaucracy has seen rule by 414 seats and 145 seats, both within living memory. There's nothing special about 303 in that context - the executive control over the administrative system is a separate task with a long gestation.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 20 May 2020 06:36

It will happen at right time. Most termagent are retiring in the six of the ten years NaMo will be in power. Same with justices.

Kaal takes them out. Sixty years retirement wall is the hurdle.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Philip » 20 May 2020 11:00

But look at the number of retd. babus being brought back as advisers! Babudom is perfecting the art of being govt. servants,or parasites,leeches, until death do them part.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 20 May 2020 13:14

ramana wrote:It will happen at right time. Most termagent are retiring in the six of the ten years NaMo will be in power. Same with justices.

Kaal takes them out. Sixty years retirement wall is the hurdle.


there was already a long list of entitled babuz awaiting their "turn" to lucrative local and foreign appointments that would fetch them in addition to their normal pensions + benefits, very handsome retirement packages and their second or third prized housing plot.

world bank appointments come to mind as well as to the many UN bodies like Dr swaminathans daughter has been "appointed" to the WHO.

all these have either been sidelined or thwarted by applicants with the new power structure sifarish, exactly how the touts at the local RTO change with every new state govt as well as municipal elections.

Someone clued up and with oversight powers should vet releases and public orders emanating out of these sensitive ministries that are now targeted by the babuz hell bent on causing much distress and confusion in the minds of an already burdened public

this termite lot has long spread their tentacles into the state govts where, over the years, they have cultivated and nurtured identical networks that pay off tangibly. So just one babuz family may have multilevel state and central connections that will continue to pay off for generations to come. Just dig a little to see how some of these babuz families have dynastically propagated over the years and the kind of lucrative business their extended families run.

One guy (and his family) in the election commission comes to mind. They know where all the bodies are buried and how to milk a bull to produce fine cream and rich butter.

such babuz networks have been nurtured by the central as well as state congi type mafias that have now snowballed to include mayawati, yadavs, abdullahs, muftis, pawars, gowdas, CBN, jagan reddy, shivakumars and a whole host of others, most of whom started out dirt poor.

Modi's victory has upset many an applecart. so the deep state is hitting back, to malign, defame and thwart and the control over the deep state still is firmly in the hands of commies, naxals and the congis. Why haven't these power structures been overhauled yet. Six years in an epoch in political terms and a better opportunity may never present itself.

The Modi govt has to guard against the wholesale chicanery of the babuz.

Sadly, it appears that after six years of governance, Modi is in office, but does not seem to be power.

There are still ideologically contaminated greenhorns and experienced babuz who have no love lost for this govt and for them, the best way to stigmatize it is through constant deception, post truth shenanigans, and goebbelsian propaganda.

the job of controlling the babuz is that of the cabinet secretary. If he is not up to the mark or has not the power to do so, then whatever is happening will continue to happen. It takes a very senior babuz to really and credibly damage the career prospects of these embedded termites and that is the only language that babuz really understand.

When the guilty are unearthed, legitimately f-up their ACRs and put them on strict watch and that will put paid to rogue tendencies in the short to medium term.

the second term of Modi was famously touted as a warning to these errant darbari babuz that Modi is here to stay and that should have made them behave but the very opposite seems to have come about and these termites are now more active than ever before.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rony » 20 May 2020 19:03

There is a AP babu who comes to mind. He is from Bihar. When Jagan came to power, he purged all the babus both senior and junior babus whom he thought were close to CBN or close to CBN's coterie. This babu was also part of that purge. But later on he somehow managed to get into the good graces of Jagan and got back his posting again. At one time in his past this babu also got raided by anti-corruption sleuths and they recovered lakhs of black money from his home. But some people also told me that even though he is corrupt, he also did some good things. During a casual conversation in a gathering, when i told how Modi govt did a good thing by abrogating article 370, he said something like " You know how AP was bifurcated against the wishes of Andhra people. Same thing is happening in Kashmir. If you ask kashmiris, they will tell whether the decision is good or bad". I was like :eek:. I expected that kind of response from some TDP/YSRCP/Congress social media trolls but to hear it from a babu in service of the govt of India was an eye opener. It was then i realized how JNU mentality is deeply embedded in our babus. But that JNU mentality did not stop our babu from admitting his children in a Ivy League university in amrika. His brother in law was also a babu but quit his job in the middle of his career and now works for IMF in massaland.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 20 May 2020 19:42

It's hard to know what's on minds of Modi, Shah, and BJP. In GJ itself, they haven't touched bureaucracy even after two decades of rule.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nam » 20 May 2020 19:50

chetak wrote:BJP hasn't thrown out the mafia's loyal babuz even after 6 yrs. Though supporters repeatedly begged them to do it.


You are talking about a bunch who go tremendous length for this job. Do you think they cannot change colors to save their jobs?

Lots of babus who exposed themselves have been thrown out. Take the example of our ex CJ. He was a relative of Congress leader in Assam.The Congress was super happy to have him as CJ.

How did things turn out?

Babus, Judges, lawyers are political players. They know how to place the game, without putting themselves in jeopardy. Some jokers blow their ideological basis and are caught.

Others don't.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby mukkan » 20 May 2020 19:52

Every year fresh batch of IAS folks join who are brainwashed reading thehindu. TheHindu is the required reading for all IAS aspirants. They spent years reading this propaganda before joining IAS. Unless the entry criteria/test for IAS is changed drastically, not much hope. IAS role needs to be diminished by bringing more and more outside experts. I remember seeing an interview of IAS guy who was boasting about his job security that in order to fire him, president has to sign it.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 20 May 2020 20:00

There has to be some sort of security clearance based credit system with everyone's details on the file. Passing thru make me a Babu exams should not be the only criteria. If you want to be be a Babu then there needs to be a strong incentive to not have relatives or kids out of the India.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 20 May 2020 21:10

Those things are possible in a dictatorship and not in a democracy like ours. If i'm not mistaken, even former PM Manmohan Singh has one of his daughters in the US. The first thing a government does at the state or at the central level is to shuffle the bureaucrats , even the hurriedly formed government of Shivraj Singh did this within weeks of taking power in MP, as did Kamalnath before him and Yediyurappa in Karnataka, Dawood coalition in MH and so on. The center isnt stupid nor naive to maintain the same set of Congress loyalists, so they too would have done the necessary shuffle to separate the chaff from the wheat. A system dating back to 19th century cannot be overhauled in 6 years and the government having 300 or 400 seats has nothing to do with it, what is usually done is by whacking the moles as they surface. Again, if you have nationalist governments in place for decades at a stretch, it is entirely possible to create a ecosystem and instill the fear of consequences if the civil servants don't tow the government's line, until then filtration is the only alternative which this government has been doing to the best of its ability.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 20 May 2020 21:33

Ambar wrote:Those things are possible in a dictatorship and not in a democracy like ours. If i'm not mistaken, even former PM Manmohan Singh has one of his daughters in the US. The first thing a government does at the state or at the central level is to shuffle the bureaucrats , even the hurriedly formed government of Shivraj Singh did this within weeks of taking power in MP, as did Kamalnath before him and Yediyurappa in Karnataka, Dawood coalition in MH and so on. The center isnt stupid nor naive to maintain the same set of Congress loyalists, so they too would have done the necessary shuffle to separate the chaff from the wheat. A system dating back to 19th century cannot be overhauled in 6 years and the government having 300 or 400 seats has nothing to do with it, what is usually done is by whacking the moles as they surface. Again, if you have nationalist governments in place for decades at a stretch, it is entirely possible to create a ecosystem and instill the fear of consequences if the civil servants don't tow the government's line, until then filtration is the only alternative which this government has been doing to the best of its ability.


that's exactly what Modi did despite repeated advice from many well wishers because he thought that the babuz would be loyal to the new govt just because they were untouched and this was a sign to them that they were trusted and this great deed was supposed to convey that since we trust you, work hard for the country.

why mess with the baton exchange at such a vital and historic juncture and at the level of the future of the state.

when everyone starts with the new broom and the new broom was expected to be wielded, no one would have said anything at all, the chance was flubbed and an opportunity was simply gifted away to the commies and congis, indirectly and greatly benefitting the BIF.

Modi got upset when the SPG guards stood at a distance that he thought was too close to him and so could overhear all that modi spoke

modi forgot that the babuz guys who moved his files had insight into everything that he did and could always figure out the big picture and how to damage and blemish his plans by feeding info to the right termites.

such an experienced politico as he just couldn't distinguish the spg wheat from the babuz chaff.

BTW, I still remain a bhakth but one who is getting a wee bit concerned about who exactly is in the wheelhouse, steering the ship of state in such choppy waters, especially when the said ship of state is leaking like a sieve and the termites are making merry.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby schinnas » 20 May 2020 21:54

Best thing to build a nationalistic babudom is to mandate 3 year compulsory military service for all UPSC passouts. Have them attend 6 month training program at NDA followed by 2.5 year service as JCOs.

It will build discipline, good habits, team player attitude, physical fitness, moral uprightness and patriotism in them.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 20 May 2020 22:05

The mistake is in assuming that 100% of civil service employees are imperious when it comes to administration and hell bent on undermining the government, and the government is oblivious to all this. Given the foundations of civil services and their lengthy history, its safe to assume in any government there will be 30% or so bureaucrats who will try to scuttle the government's best initiatives and plans, but these are also the "moles" who get whacked when they do it so their number drops as the government gets stronger. We only seem to think about the big initiatives taken by this government like demonetization, Uri, Balakot, abolishing triple talaq, supreme court's judgement (like hell this was possible in congress time) on Ram Mandir, article 370/35A abolition, CAA etc, but we forget many other policy objectives and initiatives the government has met or undertaken which wouldnt have been possible without majority of the bureaucracy being onboard , Ujjwala yojana, Ayushman Bharat, NHAI hitting a record 33 km/day NH construction (UPA's average was less than half of this), JanDhan yojana, Mudra PMMY, Electrification of 100% villages, India's standing in the world and robust diplomacy in middle-east and US are all examples of bureaucrats working and meeting government's policy objectives.

Like in all aspects of life, negativity and pessimism p0rn is addictive than seeing the positive side of things. When have we ever had a government that has worked towards fulfilling each one of their manifesto objective ?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 20 May 2020 23:33

Good posts, Ambar.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Avtar Singh » 21 May 2020 03:10

Nevertheless... by which I mean challenges of dealing with the bureaucracy and changing it...

I think one important change is to convert all positions into Short Service Commissions
as opposed to Permanent Commissions.

Changing the bureaucracy into a massive temping agency where people can be brought
in as and when required than quickly fired. Task orientated.... with a max number of years
before you are forced to leave.

As all western nations are finding out, bureaucracies are inherently communist.
Not in ideology but in function once these apparatchiks and their views are established
they can never be removed no matter how hard you vote for a change....

See European Union/Brexit vote.

UK and established orthodoxies, even allowing the rape of your own young girls without recourse.
(bureaucracy/police/judiciary... all in on it)

Trump and all his challenges.

Sir Humphrey, the British are learning was a big mistake... aided by media/established judiciary.
Once a policy like mass immigration is established it cannot be changed until one of the
links in the establishment is changed and refreshed.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 21 May 2020 09:29

Many thoughts from BRF on babudom. Coming from a family which has included a long line of babus (from the ICS days to Modi sarkar)...and honestly no bad apples....my personal thoughts to straighten up babudom:

- Early indoctrination/curriculum needs to change. Looks like it hasn't changed since the 1940s. Aspiring babus will prepare for and do whatever is needed to get in and succeed. So change the exam/interview/training content to what Modi sarkar and future nationalist sarkars need to move the country forward faster.

- Scrap all the special perks...official cars, residential areas exclusively for babus, etc...this isn't the armed forces that they need to live only with each other. Just equalize salaries to be in line with private sector.

These two will automatically reduce the number of aspirants to those who are genuinely interested to serve the country. That way the goremint can simply hire people laterally as needed. Eventually eliminate cadre-based intake entirely in all services except armed forces/paramilitary.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 21 May 2020 10:18

KL Dubey wrote:That way the goremint can simply hire people laterally as needed. Eventually eliminate cadre-based intake entirely in all services except armed forces/paramilitary.

In a way I like the way the US has modelled some of their system. One thing (which I guess is unique) is that their version of Superindent of Police (Sheriff) is an elected official. Which means that if he/she does not perform well he can say good bye in next elections. In India if SPs gets evaluated by politicians and even if they are unfit for the job just gets shunted to a different posting; but they still remain in service. And in cities like NY, my understanding is that police officials above the rank of Police Captain (equivalent to our PIs) generally are "appointments" and the top hierarchy all have people who work at the discretion of the Mayor. The mayor can appoint people who he trusts, but they also go out with him if he loses the elections. I feel any system which takes a person into a job with a commitment of long term employement (and a pension) generally will have people who would gang up against the rest and just focus on their own well being.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Yagnasri » 21 May 2020 13:56

Very few outsiders know the manner of AP people were abused years together daily on morning programmes of Telugu news channels by almost all party leaders of TG (this includes TDP, BJP, TRS and others) before the division of the AP state. On the back of it the manner in which the AP was divided a left a lot of bad feeling in mango AP people. That bad feeling was used by almost everyone like CBN Jagan and so on to create hate. You have to just believe the CTs that used to go around in AP those days of CBN. CBN particularly encouraged this for the last two years or so of his tenure to demonise BJP and NM. It all worked very well and BJP lost most of the small amount of support it had in AP in 2019. Huge dramas on special status for AP were also carried out. That demand suddenly vanished after the 2019 elections.

Now no one speaks about the special status. That drama is now over. Jagan is busy in EJ activities and CBN is busy in trying to mend fences with BJP. My only hope is BJP do not allow CBN to comeback into BJP fold. That scumbag shall be punished asap.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 21 May 2020 15:38

There has been some discussion about the bureaucracy and how it is a hindrance to the implementation of progressive policies of this government. This comes from an inadequate appreciation of civil service as a vehicle for deliver of public goods. It is not the most perfect tool and like the institution of marriage with all its imperfections no one has been able to come up with an alternative model. Let me explain this with an example from the US. Here is a link to an article that appeared in the New Yorker.
The New Yorker article (https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-colu ... us-economy). refers to the US Government's attempts to reach some succour to those who might not have social security benefit and yet might be thrown out of their jobs. Now, what is the best way to deliver some cash benefits to a set of people who might be temporarily put out of their jobs that they were holding, because of the lock down of all economic activities?
If the US Government's framework is anything to go by, the best way seems to be that hand out some money to the banks in the hope that they in turn would would pass it on to small borrowers who in turn would, out of a Christian sense of charity and innate moral scruples, would promptly pass it on to workers who were thrown out of jobs. We have a saying in Tamil about how not to catch a fish. Some of you will of course be familiar with it. Yet for the benefit of those not familiar let me paraphrase it in English.
It does not, as the saying goes, lie in taking a fishing tackle, hook a bait and cast it in the water and the fish will do the rest. It lay in catching hold of a stork that has caught a fish, place a ball of butter on its head. As the butter melts and blinds the stork, walk across to the stork and snatch the fish caught in its beak. Something on those lines is what the US government tried to do and now everyone is shocked by the fact that the scheme didn't reach the intended beneficiaries. I wonder what would have happened if Indian government tried to do something on these lines.
The other thing about the proposal is the quantum of relief to the labour. The $2.2 trillion relief accommodated a mere $340 billion for payout to the labour. Now in an economy that is roughly $22 trillion in size and the labour share of total national income pegged at roughly 55% (A McKinsey study) we are looking at labour's share of national income at $ 11 trillion. While a significant chunk of that income would have gone to workers in the organised sector with social security benefit the $340 billion, the assumption that those outside the net would amount to no more than 3% of the total work force (assuming a normal distribution of labour factor income) and thus deserving of Federal financial support strains one's creduility. No wonder the amount was exhausted within days of announcement of the relief.
Yet, no one in the US civil service seems to have pointed out at the unrealistic nature of the assumption or the flawed framework for reaching relief to the affected workers. Contrast this with what the Indian Government did. It credited the monthly dues of PF contributions payable by the employees and employers directly into the employees' accounts. In other words, there was no intermediation by the banks and employers in the Government's scheme of things or any facile assumption that the intermediaries would implement the programme in the spirit in which it was introduced. This was topped up by credit to the Jan Dhan bank accounts to take care of those outside the organised sector workforce.
This is not to say that the Government of India's relief package was adequate. That is far from the case. I wish It (Govt) had also done the same with ESI contributions instead of merely giving additional time for employers and employees to pay in their contributions. But the larger point that I wanted to make is that the a civil service guided the Executive in fashioning a framework of relief that is beyond reproach even if one has some reservations about the quantum of relief.
I now refer to another decision of the government that had come in for much criticism. I refer to the Home Ministry's circular that seemingly put the burden on the employer should any of the employees test Covid 19 positive post the liberalisation of the lockdown. It is true that the original circular was hard on the employers of units who had been permitted to restart their operations but faced harsh consequences if any of their employees tested Covid 19 positive at a later date. If this was made fun of, the subsequent clarification came in for more ridicule.
It seems to me that the bureaucracy can at best be accused of not having an understanding of the nuances of the English language (these days, even schooling from Campion in Bombay or La Martinere in Kolkata topped with a degree from St Stephens is a guarantee of proficiency in English!). What they meant to say was that if the employer engages in an unsafe (from a Covid 19 perspective) practice- such as requiring all employtees to undertake a corporate loyalty pledge as an act of solidarity and team building and packing them in the office canteen for this purpose- fully knowing that such an act would be an invitation for the virus to spread itself generously around, they would be prosecuted. Even the fact that every one of the employees who had participated had 'Consented' to the meeting, would not avail the employer from criminal consequences of his reckless act of gathering all employees in a crowded place. In their effort to make the whole thing concise and at the same time they bundled up the words into a phrase to appear succinct they gave everyone the impression that employer would be prosecuted for consenting to an 'unsafe practice' proposed by an employee and thus drawing peals laughter all around. To my mind, this is a pardonable error of language if one can call it that.
Of course this leads to the question, why are such contortions required in policy formulations, in the first place? We need to look no further than the intensely competitive nature of politics in the country both at the State and Central levels. There is no consensus on any aspect of policy framework among major political parties. What this has meant is that the party in power should not only be doing right but also seen to be doing it in a manner that leaves no room for doubt as to what its intentions are. The Covid 19 is as good an example as any. Under normal circumstances you could say that It can be nobody's case that the Government had an ulterior motive in permitting establishment to restart operations. Equally it can be nobody's case that establishments would not be aware of what are safe practices and what aren't from the perspective of triggering in infections. Yet you can't take these things for granted. Every bonafide action has ingredients within it which can be exploited by an eager opposition to build a false narrative that could prove catastrophic in the elections.
Another important point to note is that in public administration the Harvard Business School's Case Study approach is rarely applicable. You know, you study what HR policy worked in company A in context X if the same were to occur in Company B. In public policy even routine things have this uncanny ability to hide aspects that makes old rules inappropriate.
Let me give an example. After the imposition of Emegency in 1975, the Government came out with a 20 Point programme. One of the points was planting more trees and increase the green cover. The 1977 Janata Party combine that came to power was busy fighting among themselves and the 20 Point programme never really got the scrutiny it deserved. The subsequent long uninterrupted reign of the Congress Party in the years that followed meant that it became an article of faith in the public policy framework which I suspect is still a valid metric of Government's performance. So much so, every IAS officer's performance was assessed by the success in improving afforstation in the district under their charge. How did this policy operate in TN?
As far back as 1960, Kamaraj, the then CM had caused the planting of a thorny short statured tree, 'Seemai Karuvelam' a species native to Latin America, as a source of firewood in Southern districts as a drought had ravaged these parts of the State. The drought came and went and people coped with firewood shortage as best as they could. But it became a convenient tree species for notching up success in 20 point programme initiatives. As the years went by public lands were available in less and less number but the pressure on performance was unrelenting. What did these officers do? They planted them on the dry lake beds dotted across the State. Each aspect of the policy was unexceptionable when seen in isolation. Green cover is good. Seemai karuvelam is good as a source of expanding green cover. The policy of using dry lake beds when ayacut lands had long since been diverted to alternative uses for afforstation, again seemed beyond reproach. But it turned out to be a terrible choice for a variety of reasons in later years. It was an invasive species gobbling up even good arable land in a relentless manner. In hindsight it seems a bad policy. But at what precise point in time did it become so? Impossible to say. This is but a trivial example of a very common place policy decision that can be seen to have gone wrong only when seen in hindsight.
I will conclude with a reference to demonetisation. There are two aspects to it. As a public policy is it 'good' of 'bad'? If you define it purely in terms of how much of the old currency remained untendered it had of course been a bad decision. If you define it in terms of some lofty, strategic objectives (one can have extended debates over it) the verdict can be different. Let us leave that aside and focus on the implementation aspects alone. There was failure on two points. RBI not printing enough new currency notes to make up for the notes frozen and two, not realising that ATMs are not configured to handle currencies of dimensions that the new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 came with. How does one expect that this angle should have been foreseen in the first place?
One can have a debate about whether demonetisation was good from a public policy perspective. Especially when it had not been attempted in independent India. (The 1977 demonetisation with freezing of circulation of Rs 10,000 currency note doesnt count for the purpose of this debate). Can we introspect a bit on this? Would each one of us if we had been placed in the position of having to manage tbe logistics of demonetisatjon have thought of this? In any case, the second problem is to a large extent subsumed in the first. After all, if there was enough new currency available in the first place, you can always inject it into the system. ATMs are only a means to make currency available to the public and we had a fiat money system long before ATMs came on the scene.
So we come back to the problem of RBI/Finance Ministry not ensuring that enough new currency notes were permitted. Here is the managerial challenge. The CEO (the PM, in this case) had to operate without explicit control system In place to ensure that performance is in conformity with the Budget (quantum of new currency notes to be printed). But monitoring performance in a rigorous way would have compromised on the element of secrecy that the policy (demonetisation) demanded in the first place. That meant that in order to implement demonetisation with utmost secrecy surrounding it required a belief in a managerial philosophy. A philosophy that viewed a management structure for the organisation within the government as one where all sub systems have a clear idea of what the goals of the organisation are aware and equally aware of the means to achieve the goals without anybody breathing down anybody's neck. In other words, there is no need for any Management Control System to operate at any level of the organisation. But we know from experience that such a view of organisation is utopian one at best and at worst (not having management control systems at all levels of the organisation) incompetence of the highest order.
The long and short of it is this. Before we condemn the bureaucracy we would do well to recognise this truism. Public policy is very often a strange beast whose outcomes cannot be conjectured in any meaningful fashion with any degree of certainty at all times.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 21 May 2020 16:19

A coterie of a few bad apples among the babuz is maligning this govt at every opportunity.

no one is suggesting or has suggested the wholesale removal of the babuzcracy. Just weed out this lot if they are hell bent on not correcting themselves even after a warning or two at the most.

we are all well aware of the achievements of this govt and are indeed very appreciative of it as the one govt that actually had/has the spine to bring about such structural changes. None need to remind us as these things are minutely tracked on social media and other platforms

One however wishes that this govt adopt a more realistic and proactive stance in dealing with govt servants who actively are out to undercut this govt, and show it in a bad light, thus benefiting the enemies of this govt. Realistically, it must deal with internal sabotage and there are any number of govt rules that can be enforced to make sure that such villains are severely dealt with

Democracy and FOE has its place but not when one is in a coveted govt position where some token loyalty to the govt of the day is a given attribute of the job and one is enjoying the perks as well as the loaves and fishes of the office.

If some babuz do not agree with the policies even after six years of this govt, and actively seek to undermine it, then they should resign, go home and do khethi or organize a resistance to this govt maybe via the NGO route but they do not have the right to undermine the govt, especially from the official positions that they are occupying.

babuz may have any personal ideology but in the office, the policies of the govt of the day rule supreme and the babuz just do not have the mandate to undermine the govt which employs them.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kit » 21 May 2020 16:32

chetak wrote:A coterie of a few bad apples among the babuz is maligning this govt at every opportunity.

no one is suggesting or has suggested the wholesale removal of the babuzcracy. Just weed out this lot if they are hell bent on not correcting themselves even after a warning or two at the most.

we are all well aware of the achievements of this govt and are indeed very appreciative of it as the one govt that actually had/has the spine to bring about such structural changes. None need to remind us as these things are minutely tracked on social media and other platforms

One however wishes that this govt adopt a more realistic and proactive stance in dealing with govt servants who actively are out to undercut this govt, and show it in a bad light, thus benefiting the enemies of this govt. Realistically, it must deal with internal sabotage and there are any number of govt rules that can be enforced to make sure that such villains are severely dealt with

Democracy and FOE has its place but not when one is in a coveted govt position where some token loyalty to the govt of the day is a given attribute of the job and one is enjoying the perks as well as the loaves and fishes of the office.

If some babuz do not agree with the policies even after six years of this govt, and actively seek to undermine it, then they should resign, go home and do khethi or organize a resistance to this govt maybe via the NGO route but they do not have the right to undermine the govt, especially from the official positions that they are occupying.

babuz may have any personal ideology but in the office, the policies of the govt of the day rule supreme and the babuz just do not have the mandate to undermine the govt which employs them.


cant these bad apples be sent to early retirement ?

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 21 May 2020 16:44

kit wrote:
chetak wrote:A coterie of a few bad apples among the babuz is maligning this govt at every opportunity.


babuz may have any personal ideology but in the office, the policies of the govt of the day rule supreme and the babuz just do not have the mandate to undermine the govt which employs them.


cant these bad apples be sent to early retirement ?


some have already been sent home but then the deep state hit back and ensured that some good apples were also needlessly tarred, disgraced and also retired.

The govt is proceeding more cautiously now.

It needs to take the head of the snake but somehow, that has not yet taken place.

white waisty being plastered in foreign media as being vilely corrupt, along with two other names mentioned in the same article means that the govt may still be going at them and using methods not used before in Indian politics.

mallaya and nirav modi not being extradited back to India is the BIF striking back to protect it's own Indian interests. Both these two smalltime rascals are mere pawns in the larger BIF game because the money trail does not end with them. BIF is mortally afraid of spilled beans which is far worse than spilt milk.

Why was kasab so hastily executed, it's rumored that the powers that be did not want the BJP to get access to him. Many others who were also picked up and whose names did not appear in the press were again quietly disposed of, especially the local collaborators of the taj hotel attackers.

there may be hope yet but along with that, defending one's own house from the termites within should be the number one priority.

darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 21 May 2020 22:59

Envy of UP people. Gujarati people need to throw the trash out in GJ at the next election.


Uttar Pradesh government takes control of Shia and Sunni Waqf Boards in the state: Read details
https://www.opindia.com/2020/05/uttar-p ... d-details/

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 22 May 2020 10:07

darshan wrote:Envy of UP people. Gujarati people need to throw the trash out in GJ at the next election.

It seems to be a temporary move as the elections to the Waqf boards could not be completed on time. But UP government did not allow that as an excuse to extend the term of the current board members.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 22 May 2020 11:53

Guys not to sound concerned without any basis, but when I saw the following video of ModiJi embarking on a survey mission to W. Bengal in the aftermath of the devastating cycle, it seemed to me that he has lost a lot of weight. Do you feel the same? Now if indeed it is the case, it could be a good thing because I always felt that he was a tad overweight and needed to cut back a bit. But at the same time, losing weight without trying is a symptom if a deeper malaise.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cyclone ... ys-2233154

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 22 May 2020 12:21

CRamS wrote:Guys not to sound concerned without any basis, but when I saw the following video of ModiJi embarking on a survey mission to W. Bengal in the aftermath of the devastating cycle, it seemed to me that he has lost a lot of weight. Do you feel the same? Now if indeed it is the case, it could be a good thing because I always felt that he was a tad overweight and needed to cut back a bit. But at the same time, losing weight without trying is a symptom if a deeper malaise.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cyclone ... ys-2233154


I can't imagine the stress that he must be facing daily with our media out to get him with all the pidis in tow. Wish him a long a healthy life, Bharat needs him more than ever.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 22 May 2020 17:11

this sorry example for a human being, passing himself off as a "historian" likes to diss his country and culture in front of his white skinned paymasters

watch from 10:00 onwards



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVbhB1YjjA0&app=desktop


Ramachandra Guha Ten Reasons why India will not and must not become a Superpower

Apr 15, 2010



darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 22 May 2020 18:51

Sachin wrote:
darshan wrote:Envy of UP people. Gujarati people need to throw the trash out in GJ at the next election.

It seems to be a temporary move as the elections to the Waqf boards could not be completed on time. But UP government did not allow that as an excuse to extend the term of the current board members.

Noted that. However, when one notices two states, one can't not be in awe of Yogi and disgusted by Rupani. Yogi taking over from non BJP govt with lot more problems and associated green energy is getting more done 24/7 than Rupani. Especially when GJ has been under BJP rule forever with BJP in center.


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