2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Karan M
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 27 Feb 2020 04:05

Vidur wrote:Again, you raise many valid points.

When they do so, entire administration including SDMs, DM, SP, SSP, sometimes even District Judge descend on them and say 'hua to hua. Ab mel milap se saath saath raho'. Thats what NSA said today. I have said it as well. But this usually just emboldens the aggressor and cycle of violence erupts again. Only way to stop it is to impose severe costs...sometimes it means letting the retaliation play out. That is the only way of effective communication. In UP CM has used both offensive action of police and legal means to impose financial costs. It has had a salutory effect...atleast for now.


Unfortunately true. As a kid growing up besides/with ghettoized individuals, it was very very apparent, that violence to assert dominance was the only way known. From cricket matches to road stops by cops, the only way to survive was to have access to, and bring your own numbers. Growing up, I would have thought things would change, but even now they are the same. I still remember 8th class kids walking around with knives and sharpened bottle pieces as if it was the most normal thing in the world. The environment was/is toxic, and survival a daily routine with religious mobilization an ever ready threat.

But the bigger problem as you allude to is demographic plus their obvious long term agenda which has more focus now. Addressing this is complex and multifacted problem. But immediate situation is that Hindus have been attacked and are not allowed to defend themselves nor will the police defend them. Very important to take strong action against jihadis and convey the right messages in the next few days.

IW aspect we have already adequately touched upn.


In my limited experience, there are always the leaders and their immediate core group of followers who can be and should be targeted using intelligence to take them out of play. We still can't stop the mobs until and unless the GOI brings in extra manpower. Telengana cops in Hyderabad were supposedly showing the way, by turning up en masse, prepared for all sorts of issues, and hence not easily pushed around. Unfortunately, that's the only way. This harkens back to Brits and their railroad project, by which they'd rapidly transport well armed troops, ironically to suppress rebellions like the Moplah one. In short, we need a core of highly trained riot cops in every region, expensive but doable and located there, sort of like how the BSF built up intel networks in the valley, and able to deploy, suppress violent rioters in a moments notice. If the heads of these jihadi orgs keep getting taken out to jail, and the mob attacks are met with disciplined resolute force, then how long can they persist? Critics will say that this will only cause more Pulwama style attacks. But I think that will occur anyhow. The level of radicalization is such that any push back on any topic held dear to the community causes an immediate outburst of violence. Strategically, well equipped and armed riot cops would bottle up rioters in their own community areas. Their infra is at risk, their local guys will bear the brunt of their own yahoo's and their violence. But this is not always possible until and unless we have solid intel, otherwise mass mobilizations can occur anywhere and shut that part of the city down. Economic terrorism as some chaps are openly threatening.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 27 Feb 2020 04:11

Karan M wrote:
Ambar wrote:
the 'M' population will remain peaceful for long but what could he do when you have 25% of your massive population hell bent on violence across the country egged on by media, celebrities, political parties ? Nothing would have helped.


Come sir. Nakabandi, strict checks, arrests, all would have done the trick. Plus this sabka saath stuff does not mean bribing as is being done right now. You are rewarding bad behavior. If he truly was a Sardar Patel type, all these freebies would be cut. You dont get to misbehave and then get freebies. Are Hs getting 22,485 Crore purely as a sop for their kids etc? What is this communal bribery. You are merely emboldening groups same way US aid emboldens Pak mil. They think they can blackmail the state forever. Irrespective of whichever group behaves in this manner, this business of community directed sops should cease. Proceed on economic lines across caste, creed if you will.



Karan M wrote:
Ambar wrote:
the 'M' population will remain peaceful for long but what could he do when you have 25% of your massive population hell bent on violence across the country egged on by media, celebrities, political parties ? Nothing would have helped.


Come sir. Nakabandi, strict checks, arrests, all would have done the trick. Plus this sabka saath stuff does not mean bribing as is being done right now. You are rewarding bad behavior. If he truly was a Sardar Patel type, all these freebies would be cut. You dont get to misbehave and then get freebies. Are Hs getting 22,485 Crore purely as a sop for their kids etc? What is this communal bribery. You are merely emboldening groups same way US aid emboldens Pak mil. They think they can blackmail the state forever.



Despite how bad it looks, the eternal optimist in me is seeing a few silver linings here:

- Better now than in future: If we are at the brink of a H-M civil war, I am glad its happening now with MAD in power, than 30 yrs in future when the peaceful population would be closer to the tipping point (40%) and a "secular" govt in power, which would mean we'd be looking at a nation-wide ethnic cleansing of H that'd put Hunic invasions of Europe & Mongol invasions of Persia to shame. Seeing the way they report, one can cynically surmise that BBC, WaPo will even conceal such a massive genocide by stating that India has always been a M-majority country :-?

- Impact on Modi's depth of reach: PM Modi has topnotch relations with the actual power centers of most powerful western govts at least US, Israel & France. Their media can rant all they want against India being intolerant and how riots showed true face of India, but crucial business decisions are more impacted by these heads of state based on pragmatic ground realities - not these manufactured lies. Trump dismissing Delhi violence and giving a clean chit to Modi on Religious freedom, is a clear indication of how they perceive India.

- Impact on Vacillating fence-sitters: I believe among Hindus, there are on an average about 30-35% nationalist & BJP folks, perhaps 20-25% are self loathing liberals who have gone beyond point of no return, the rest are vacillating and ideology-less. Its this last category that is beginning to soak in these riots, their timing and objectives more carefully.. its this last category which has always prioritized their short term monetary benefits over India's civilizational interests and will continue to do so. Was watching an interview the other day in a Telugu channel, where regional leaders of all political parties were aghast at the timing of these riots - as a negative image impacts the entire nation and how much loss it causes on the investment front. They are frustrated by these riots and want them to stop and will be backing any strong measures as long as there is a consistent & cohesive narrative on the rationale for those measures.

- Impact on Secular Sheeple: Innocence of at least some H-sheeple has been partially lost.. apparently among those killed in Delhi was the son of one KP who was an ardent sickular agenda supporter.. it didn't matter to the rioters whether you screamed at the top of your lungs that you were true-blue blooded secular or a Hindu activist.. all it mattered whether you had a H-name or not. There must be at least some secular sheeple who would've learnt their lessons based on the violence.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 27 Feb 2020 04:20

Interesting points OmkarC. I think we wont have a full blown civil war but more of a sustained insurrection based on UCC, GyanVapi/Kashi Mathura next and finally NRC. The attempt will be to paralyze the Indian economy. This is not merely a H-M civil war but more of a BJP/nationalist war vs the "opposition" using M's as foot-soldiers and the lefty ecosystem to paint them as victims prevent BJP/nationalists from taking strict action. That's what complicates things. IMHO, targeting the ecosystem is as big or an even bigger priority than the jihad nexus. For all the tough posturing, UPs hardy cops took down an entire state wide attempt and put everyone in their place within a couple of weeks. Its the lefty ecosystem which is the real force multiplier for "riots r us" and needs to be defanged. I am not too sure of Modi's personal relations with all these power centers abroad. Reason being they never really liked us, and hence will take every opportunity to cut us down to size. US for instance, the entire Dem apparatus, by nature is against the BJP and Modi. Literally, from day 1, their supporters have been equating Modi to Trump, and instinctively dislike any perceived RW'er. For better or for worse, the left is in bed with Islamists as their token minority and frequently bat for them, and hence BJP is automatically verboten. Hindu nationalism is, as described and defined by our great colonial masters, the Brits, intrinsically a "bad thing" and must be fought. With the western youth taking a leftward tilt, our position is not really well defined vis a vis future western Govts or even current left leaning ones. These are cancel culture, westerners, able to access heavy loads of debt, sponge off of social security and able to take fashionably loony positions on any topic. Allying with Trumps etc is also not easy. They carry EJ baggage and expect sweet heart deals.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ricky_v » 27 Feb 2020 04:29

The social contract between citizens and government includes protection, if the citizens are expected to hit the grounds after every move, they might just conclude to cut out the middle man and take on these responsibilities fulltime.
One should arm oneself in knowledge and not in paper shields that may be rendered illegal. Arms making is not a difficult process, 3d prints of guns exist and no pesky government laws against them.
I also have the complete set of paladin books, would have posted link in gdf.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 27 Feb 2020 04:36

Arms in India is again bureaucratic mess up. Law abiding citizens can't access arms easily, whereas all your thugs are armed with kattha's by the truck-load.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 27 Feb 2020 05:10

Karan M wrote:
Sicanta wrote:
Actually good. Make the cost paymentfor rioting a long drawn out process. Dont let them go back to their normal life and earn a living easily.


Sicanta, this is actually playing into the rioters hands. They actually want parts of the country shut down economically to force the Govt. What prevents them from emerging in a huge mob and attacking in an entirely different area? How many cities will you shut down, how many bus stations, trains will get torched? How many petrol bunks are you willing to lose?


This kind of rioting will only work in their own ghettos. It's no coincidence that everything that happened in Delhi was confined to several areas that are well known ghettos and crime dens. The issue in Delhi was that there are arterial roads adjoining those areas and they were able to shut down traffic for everyone else over there. It should be possible to corral those ghettos and clear the arterial roads, while simultaneously carrying out area domination patrols within those areas too.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Hari Seldon » 27 Feb 2020 05:18

The heft of the left is commendable.

The ability to market pure poison and sell it so successfully to generations of youth-iyas - Marketing gold! Capturing edu space for decades - damage done is near-complete. 1 more generation and most urban H kids would have fully lost touch with their indic roots as thgeir grandparents' gen fades away. Sigh.

And all it took was a fistful of dollahs, some sham awards, phoren admissions to wards of baboons & power-brokers, cushy acadhimmi positions at phoren univs to media ppl, etc. Small change.

What I find inexplicable is Modi sarkar's inaction in creating our own ecosystem. Why not invite prominent RW socMedia folks for interactions with netas and baboos, give space and bump-up and interviews to the likes of Swarajya and OpIndia, etc?

Only.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 27 Feb 2020 05:22

Karan M wrote:Interesting points OmkarC. I think we wont have a full blown civil war but more of a sustained insurrection based on UCC, GyanVapi/Kashi Mathura next and finally NRC. The attempt will be to paralyze the Indian economy. This is not merely a H-M civil war but more of a BJP/nationalist war vs the "opposition" using M's as foot-soldiers and the lefty ecosystem to paint them as victims prevent BJP/nationalists from taking strict action. That's what complicates things. IMHO, targeting the ecosystem is as big or an even bigger priority than the jihad nexus. For all the tough posturing, UPs hardy cops took down an entire state wide attempt and put everyone in their place within a couple of weeks. Its the lefty ecosystem which is the real force multiplier for "riots r us" and needs to be defanged. I am not too sure of Modi's personal relations with all these power centers abroad. Reason being they never really liked us, and hence will take every opportunity to cut us down to size. US for instance, the entire Dem apparatus, by nature is against the BJP and Modi. Literally, from day 1, their supporters have been equating Modi to Trump, and instinctively dislike any perceived RW'er. For better or for worse, the left is in bed with Islamists as their token minority and frequently bat for them, and hence BJP is automatically verboten. Hindu nationalism is, as described and defined by our great colonial masters, the Brits, intrinsically a "bad thing" and must be fought. With the western youth taking a leftward tilt, our position is not really well defined vis a vis future western Govts or even current left leaning ones. These are cancel culture, westerners, able to access heavy loads of debt, sponge off of social security and able to take fashionably loony positions on any topic. Allying with Trumps etc is also not easy. They carry EJ baggage and expect sweet heart deals.



Yes, agree with all your points. No country in the world has such treasonous opposition. Entire world's leftist networks & radical rightists are against BJP & Hindutva. But Modi's diplomacy is also working - look at how US and even China,Saudi played a role in the continuing grey-list of Pakistan at FATF till June of this year.

The intent of these riots is clearly to harm India economically, to prevent India from capitalizing on the ongoing Chinese misery with the COVID-19 and potentially become the $5Trillion economy that Modi envisions. Samsung for eg, gave a proposal to Modi govt to move their manufacturing & sub-assemblies from Huizhou, China to Noida, India apparently.. Other companies may follow if BJP govt puts laser focus on bringing their business here.

This is the key point that should be reinforced to the vacillating fence sitters, whose support is vital to ensure proper ingestion of any strong police action.. if in the name of anti-CAA protests, Samsung or other companies were prevented from coming over & bringing in jobs, these are folks who would be at loss.. BJP should weave a solid, bulletproof narrative on the irrational, anti-progressive agenda of the anti-CAA perps that is aimed at preventing FDI inflow... In other words, completely remove the H-M fighting from the equation and bring in new language - the rationale to crush these rioters & their ecosystem is purely due to the danger they present to the economic interests of the common man.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 27 Feb 2020 05:45

Guys, just catching up with all the informative posts. I am still mystified as to how TSP and BIF pulled this off right in the nation's capital. That targeting of the IB official is an almost dead give away of the TSP involvement. Most of us knew here that with anti-CAA tamasha in full swing, TSP will orchestrate something during Trump's visit using Indian Muslims. Question is if something bigger was planned? As much as these riots are a blot on India, and somewhat dampened an otherwise successful Trump visit, I don't think the bigger plot, whatever that was, succeeded. Because the violence now contained, this will disappear from the headlines. But BIF and libarandus will milk the living shit out of this next couple of months.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 27 Feb 2020 06:01

Few more points, since advise is free to dole out -

- Investing time & effort on building proper narrative & language replacing H-M conflicts or making emotional appeals on how brutally they mutilated some Hindu cops or young Hindu activists, etc w/ an economic rationale to appeal to the cold, money-minded sensibilities of practical aam-aadmis.. this will have greater support to rationalize police action.. no need for any statement on Hindus or Muslims. Do this clean up job professionally w/o advertising religion.

- Taking pro-active punitive action against the ecosystem: no distinction between rioters, politicians, media & urban naxals.

- Convincing international decision makers & business leaders that India is still secure & a good alternative to invest than the COVID infested China

- Post new RS elections happen in March, implement all nationalist agenda items, most importantly M-population stabilization via banning polygamy & 2-child mandatory policies to establish permanent Hindu majority state in India.. as mentioned earlier, better settle this now when H-numbers are still favorable & govt is still nationalist, be prepared for a long drawn civil war.. I thought our then army chief and now CDS had said we were prepared for a 2.5 front war... this is the 0.5 front that needs to be opened by Indian govt, w/ a clear rationale being to defend the economic interests of aam-aadmis against the Leftist-Jihadi forces.

Doesn't matter if the ungrateful subsidy & freebie loving Hindu majority will vote in sickular regionalist 3rd or 4th fronts with Congress inside-outside support in 2024, but all that matters to India's interests is an irreversible demographic stabilization that can never be undone by the seculars and at least a very solid hefty blow to the ecosystem.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vayutuvan » 27 Feb 2020 06:09

Karan M wrote:Right now, a low grade civil war is underway, ...


Don't mind lekin, comparing some small riots in a corner of Delhi to "low grade civil war" is akin to making mountains of molehills. They were a regular feature in 1980s Hyderabad, Meerut, and a few other places. Let us have proper perspective. A Civil War - low grade or otherwise - will be unmistakable, even in firearm free India.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 27 Feb 2020 06:09

CRamS wrote:Guys, just catching up with all the informative posts. I am still mystified as to how TSP and BIF pulled this off right in the nation's capital. That targeting of the IB official is an almost dead give away of the TSP involvement. Most of us knew here that with anti-CAA tamasha in full swing, TSP will orchestrate something during Trump's visit using Indian Muslims. Question is if something bigger was planned? As much as these riots are a blot on India, and somewhat dampened an otherwise successful Trump visit, I don't think the bigger plot, whatever that was, succeeded. Because the violence now contained, this will disappear from the headlines. But BIF and libarandus will milk the living shit out of this next couple of months.



These riots are just the starting point for their prayog-shala, but also offer an unprecedented opportunity to MAD to deal them a solid blow (if not smash them).. not sure why we wouldn't go after the entire ecosystem using these as a legitimate excuse.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 27 Feb 2020 06:37

Vayutuvan wrote:
Karan M wrote:Right now, a low grade civil war is underway, ...


Don't mind lekin, comparing some small riots in a corner of Delhi to "low grade civil war" is akin to making mountains of molehills. They were a regular feature in 1980s Hyderabad, Meerut, and a few other places. Let us have proper perspective. A Civil War - low grade or otherwise - will be unmistakable, even in firearm free India.


But its naive for us to expect peacefuls will not escalate the situation if UCC, polygamy ban, Kashi mathura liberation & other nationalist agenda items will be taken. Its a given that there are elements from their side who will work in tandem with Pakis to create dozens of war-like situations across the nation.

Options for BJP govt are:
- Implement nationalist issues but rely on the goodwill of peaceful community to not escalate conflicts
- Implement nationalist issues but prepare for a major internal confrontation due to solid international assistance to the peacefuls
- Bury nationalist issues for now, and hope to revive them at a later date
- later date within BJP's current term: Not preferred, as BJP needs at least 2 years to focus on pure economic issues in the run-up to 2024 and not worry about having to deal with law & order in light of nationalist issue implementation
- later date beyond BJP's current term: Not preferred due to uncertain outcome of 2024.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chanakyaa » 27 Feb 2020 06:38

Some ideas and/or different perspective to tackle the problem from thousands of kilometers away...

'Lawless and illegal': Alberta's Bill 1 aims stiffer penalties at blockade protests
The Alberta government marked its return to the legislature with a new bill outlining tougher punishments on protesters who set up blockades along or near "essential infrastructure" including railways.

Bill 1, the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act, is scheduled to be introduced shortly after Tuesday afternoon's speech from the throne.
Once passed into law, the bill will allow the government to levy heavy fines and possibly imprison anyone unlawfully interfering with infrastructure including pipelines, highways, utilities and oil and gas production facilities.

"The Critical Infrastructure Defence Act, would protect essential infrastructure from damage or interference caused by blockades, protests or similar activities," Bill 1 reads.

It forbids anyone from "willfully destroying or damaging essential infrastructure" as well as "obstructing, interrupting or interfering" with the use of the same infrastructure.

The law also applies to telecommunication lines, dams and mines. Individual offenders face a fine of $1,000 for a first infraction and up to between $10,000 and $25,000 for future violations....(more)


Protesters who block railways, highways or pipelines would face up to $25,000 in fines under UCP bill
Blocking railways is already against federal criminal law, but Bill 1, the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act, introduced in the legislature after the throne speech, would give police and prosecutors the power to hand out more provincial penalties...(more)

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 27 Feb 2020 07:00

darshhan wrote:
Vidur wrote:Again, you raise many valid points.

Let me share my experience as a DM. Its usually 'minority' community which riots. Police is usually ineffective. So 'majority' has no option but to defend itself. When they do so, entire administration including SDMs, DM, SP, SSP, sometimes even District Judge descend on them and say 'hua to hua. Ab mel milap se saath saath raho'. Thats what NSA said today. I have said it as well. But this usually just emboldens the aggressor and cycle of violence erupts again. Only way to stop it is to impose severe costs...sometimes it means letting the retaliation play out. That is the only way of effective communication. In UP CM has used both offensive action of police and legal means to impose financial costs. It has had a salutory effect...atleast for now.

But the bigger problem as you allude to is demographic plus their obvious long term agenda which has more focus now. Addressing this is complex and multifacted problem. But immediate situation is that Hindus have been attacked and are not allowed to defend themselves nor will the police defend them. Very important to take strong action against jihadis and convey the right messages in the next few days.

IW aspect we have already adequately touched upn.


Vidur ji, Wanted to ask you a question. Why does administration make it so hard for Hindus to obtain Arms(including the shitty licensing procedure)? Peacefools get weapons illegally anyway.


Administration makes it hard for anyone to get weapons license. Those with connections are able to subvert and others get illegal arms anyway as you point out.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 27 Feb 2020 07:06

#Narrative

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/statu ... 1163579395
Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders

Over 200 million Muslims call India home. Widespread anti-Muslim mob violence has killed at least 27 and injured many more. Trump responds by saying, "That's up to India." This is a failure of leadership on human rights.

Check the TL but especially the first 5-7 replies with Indian sounding handles.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 27 Feb 2020 07:08

OmkarC wrote:These riots are just the starting point for their prayog-shala, but also offer an unprecedented opportunity to MAD to deal them a solid blow (if not smash them).. not sure why we wouldn't go after the entire ecosystem using these as a legitimate excuse.
Exactly my thinking .. The Kapil Mishra FIR gambit has set the bar so low that a lot of the eco-system can be netted in without any difficulty. IFFF there is a broad sweep it will act as a caution for those left out of the net for this sweep and instill some discipline.

Btw, the FIR has yet to be registered and the next court hearing will take the matter further ...

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby amdavadi » 27 Feb 2020 07:19

We had one small riot in Delhi and we are talking about mini civil war? What was 1984? What was 1989 bhagalpur riots and all the riots in Gujarat during Con govt.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 27 Feb 2020 07:26

UlanBatori wrote:
Only way to stop it is to impose severe costs...sometimes it means letting the retaliation play out. That is the only way of effective communication. In UP CM has used both offensive action of police and legal means to impose financial costs. It has had a salutory effect...atleast for now.


Vidurji: This is where I beg to differ. This "only way" is **NOT*** the best, and it is in fact destructive. It does not distinguish between innocent and guilty.

Many legendary "mass punishments" have been played up as "Accha! That eej the only way!"
Examples:
1. Stalin sending millions of Ukrainian "kulaks" to Gulag
2. Stalin then sending more millions of Ukrainians to Gulag for siding with the Nazis (see above why)
Even today, this results in Ukraine posing a huge threat to Russia.

3. General Custer delivering mass punishment to Native American villages. Kill'em all, only good injun is a dead injun. I won't mention the detailed atrocities..
4. British Govt used to enforce Mass Fines on places if they committed crimes such as choosing to feed their babies before the British Govt.
5. British sending 15,000 man Army (mostly Indians) to "punish" afghans. 15 returned.
6. Moplah Riots. True, it stopped the riots cold, but was it essential to go kill all villagers?
7. Hyderabad Razakars. Now **THERE** AFAIK, it was done more intelligently: the Razakars were rounded up and executed.

Massive Failures:
1. Godhra 1992-2002. Godhra was allowed to become a Pakistan. A schoolteacher who raised the Tricolor on Aug 15 was killed. On Feb. 28 2002 this came to a head with the train-burning.
- what the GOI SHOULD HAVE DONE:
a) encircle the town using parachute-regiment
b) Herd everyone into the town plaground.
c) Separate out those who were in the mob.
Put the rest in a holding area. Take the rioters out of town. Send them to military courts for swift sentencing. Shoot them. Return ashes to families in garbage bags.
These should have been done IMMEDIATELY, to stop the riots that followed.

2. Punjab 1980s.
Pakistan/Canada/British funded terrorits were allowed to murder Hindus and Sikhs in Punjab for far too long. You know the rest. But the "solution" was **NOT** to murder innocent Sikh Indian citizens in Delhi. The solution was what was implemented by the incredibly brave men of Operation Blue Star, and those who worked with Shri KPS Gill.They DID kill the TERRORISTS - not innocent women and old folks and children sitting in their homes.

Such tactics are the tactics of cowards, murderers, and utterly incompetent,dishonest "administrators". All who deserve hanging from the nearest lamppost.

In the case of Delhi, here is what I hope the GOI does:
1. Fire the AAP govt and put Delhi under Martial Law, not just President's rule. OK, it conveys a grim image to have the capital of the world's greatest Democracy run by the military, but for a month that is OK.
2. Use facial recognition software etc and root out every rioter.
3 Put them before the Military Court.
4. Sentence the violent ones to death, others to 2 years hard labor.
5 Make them all disappear.
6. Implement Yogi's scheme of forcing rioters to pay for all damage incl, by selling their homes. Otherwise they can do it by breaking rocks the rest of their lives.
7. Close down Jamia Millia. Get the mgmt to repay fees of any student who was **NOT** out rioting.
8. Bring bulldozers and convert it to a playground and park in honour of the murdered IB officer and policeman.
9. Same with rioters' homes. Raze them, convert them to parks.

BUT. *****NO*** "revenge" against law-abiding citizens based on prejudice and bigotry.


Your assertions have no relationship to what I said. You have twisted my comment just like some journalists are twisting the reality of the riots. I will not dignify your assertions with a response.

However for the benefit of all readers I will address your 9 suggestions. Let me first say that I have handled riots on multiple ocassions. The smells, sights, voices and dynamics of riots are well known to me. I know why they happen, who does it, what works and what does not.

Feasibility of your 9 suggestions for Delhi :

1. Illegal and no basis in law. Cannot be done.
2. Being done but gathering enough evidence for conviction by courts is going to be tough. Not a lot of precedence of such evidence being accepted in courts on a stand alone basis. Corroborating evidence will be necessary in many cases
3. There are no permanent military courts in India. Courts Martial are convened for specific cases and only have jurisdiction over military personnel. In addition their awards can be and have been challenged in civil courts, first by appellate system like AFTs and after that through courts.
4. Existing laws have provision for death penalty but you have already seen how even supreme court judgement and presidential rejection of mercy petitions have been subverted in Nirbhaya rape case and guilty have not been hanged.
5. Habeus Corpus exists in India. It is possible to make the odd low level person with no connections disappear but impossible to do so with anyone with connections.
6. Can be done but state government has to do it
7. Jamia Millia can be shut down but government is proposing opening more Jamia and AMU like colleges. Also will be open to legal challenge. But yes in principle this can be done
8. Can be done. Refer 7
9. Cannot be done unless legal ownership is first changed. Legislation will be needed for this.
Last edited by Vidur on 27 Feb 2020 07:34, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 27 Feb 2020 07:31

Hugdeep Turd ...

https://twitter.com/sardesairajdeep/sta ... 9711463428
Rajdeep Sardesai @sardesairajdeep

After spending a day on streets of NE Delhi,my takeaways 1) this is a Hindu Muslim riot in which BOTH communities have been involved in terrible acts of violence. Street Protests, provocation, attack, retaliation, a cycle of violence was unleashed.Tough to say who ‘started’ it.
Seems now that video of Muslims rioting has emerged but especially the killing of the IB guy by AAP Muslim rep's crowd has made their earlier position untenable. Course correction, even if temporary.

It is also said that bolice (and by extension IB) do not let cop killing go un-avenged. The Cop & IB killing has made a lot of otherwise fake news peddlers and narrative shapers wary.

The police role needs to be investigated. Cops were outnumbered on Monday, ill prepared with no clear directive to act firmly. By Tuesday, cops accused of siding with one community as the retaliatory cycle got worse.
Turd will always be a turd.

But here too is an admission, cops helped one community, read Hindus, for retaliation. Implicit here is that the provocation was by the Muslims and the retaliation by Hindus.

Local politicians like Kapil Mishra, Anurag Thakur added fuel to the fire with their hate speeches. A Waris Pathan speech too was seen to have incited violence. No one on ground to counter the hate speech/toxic propaganda. Communities badly divided across neighbourhoods.
Narrative shaping ... agenda uuncha rahe hamara

Criminal elements in certain pockets took over the streets on Monday.. the easy access to guns, petrol bombs became a lethal weapon to spread fear and violence. The violence was targeted with a fair amount of preparation.
From all video so far, the guns and petrol bombs were used by the Muslims. So Muslims had done a "fair amount of preparation". Again, an implicit admission.

But some people don't even like the explicit whitewashing of the Muslim role as the instigators and prime movers!
https://twitter.com/BabaGlocal/status/1 ... 4010139660
Sarfaraz @BabaGlocal

Delete yourself Rajdeep, you are a disgrace


Rohit is right ...
https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/ ... 4664470529
VatsRohit @KesariDhwaj

Now that more evidence is slowly emerging about the real instigators, and journalist have been called out peddling biased stories, EVERYONE is to blame for riots. Without SM and counter narrative, this would've been spun (was being spun, actually) as another 2002 Gujarat.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 27 Feb 2020 08:05

Vikas wrote:
Srutayus wrote:Any thoughts on spinning off a think-tank from BR?
Anyone interested in pursuing this thought?


That is a super idea.


More than a Think Tank you need an Action Group that can fight Information Warfare and change the narrative on ground, on wikipedia etc. Bring out the truth. Accept that govt and ruling party will fail in Information War but use that as an opportunity for you all to do your bit for nation building.

You are all successful articulate professionals from all over the world. Please get a few dedicated people together and create your own Task Force Truth and fight the battle on Quora, Wikipedia. Its is very essential to do so. Do read this letter to government by one of your own colleagues. Implement its suggestion of Task Force truth yoursleves

https://resonantnews.com/2020/02/23/dip ... a-veteran/

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 08:43

CRamS wrote:Guys, just catching up with all the informative posts. I am still mystified as to how TSP and BIF pulled this off right in the nation's capital. That targeting of the IB official is an almost dead give away of the TSP involvement. Most of us knew here that with anti-CAA tamasha in full swing, TSP will orchestrate something during Trump's visit using Indian Muslims. Question is if something bigger was planned? As much as these riots are a blot on India, and somewhat dampened an otherwise successful Trump visit, I don't think the bigger plot, whatever that was, succeeded. Because the violence now contained, this will disappear from the headlines. But BIF and libarandus will milk the living shit out of this next couple of months.



Actually its BIF and very little TSP.

If you followed Jaffarabad since December 2019, it was a hotbed of ISIS activity.
The IB officer was targeted by local AAP MLA.
Rest we shall see.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby shaun » 27 Feb 2020 08:45

It's an excellent idea , already fighting pitch battles . Would be great if we can show an United fight.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Feb 2020 09:05

Dismiss the Delhi government. They've shown complicity with the rioters.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Patni » 27 Feb 2020 09:12

Can we start a wiki hosted at brf and entries vetted by select editors sourced from within brf members? We all can provide easily searchable facts and counter false narratives much more effectively as compared to trying it out on twitter such is definitely left leaning.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rahul M » 27 Feb 2020 09:13

Karan M wrote:
Rahul M wrote:Btw one very effective deterrent against rioters, other than punitive damages would be chemical castration to reduce violence.
Many countries use this for sex offenders. No reason why the same can't be done for violent offenders.


With the way the current setup is, few if any if the rioters will be affected. Random H passerby will be used.

Case in point, sterilization drive during SG's time. Many of the agents were Ms. They conned unsuspecting H villagers into getting sterilized. Made money out if it too. This was partly because if they tried it within their own community, they would be physically attacked.

The IG era thing is different from what I said. That was a family planning initiative on shaky legal grounds, this would be a legally sanctioned punishment.
Weakness of system can be used to justify any measure against violence. That's not really a good argument, at the end of the day it's the system that has to do the heavy lifting.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 27 Feb 2020 09:20

Vayutuvan wrote:
Karan M wrote:Right now, a low grade civil war is underway, ...


Don't mind lekin, comparing some small riots in a corner of Delhi to "low grade civil war" is akin to making mountains of molehills. They were a regular feature in 1980s Hyderabad, Meerut, and a few other places. Let us have proper perspective. A Civil War - low grade or otherwise - will be unmistakable, even in firearm free India.


amdavadi wrote:We had one small riot in Delhi and we are talking about mini civil war? What was 1984? What was 1989 bhagalpur riots and all the riots in Gujarat during Con govt.


This is not merely Delhi. Dont know where you guys are and what you've been looking at but this is merely the most public recent event. The whole of UP was sought to be set ablaze as well. 50 plus cops were shot, wounded in UP. The number of cops shot at would be far far higher. There were attempts to riot even in INC ruled states. Please dont mistake what's appearing right now as the only event.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 27 Feb 2020 09:32

Rahul M wrote:The IG era thing is different from what I said. That was a family planning initiative on shaky legal grounds, this would be a legally sanctioned punishment.
Weakness of system can be used to justify any measure against violence. That's not really a good argument, at the end of the day it's the system that has to do the heavy lifting.


Point is still valid Rahul, the punishment will end up punishing the wrong people if implementation is faulty or flawed. What kind of punishment is it then? Any policy has to be tailored to the realities of the ground situation.
Also, the optics of the proposal make it unfeasible. How can we justify chemically castrating rioters as versus sexual assaulters. It will be called as a war on muslim men etc.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 27 Feb 2020 10:10

Vidur's comments on the handling of riots make it clear that despite decades of experience at handling them, there is no standard procedure to actually handle things properly.

Proper handling implies:
* that things are done in a modern and standard manner regardless of who is involved.
* The behavior of any particular community CANNOT be a normative one that applies to them alone. As Vidur explains - the Muslims always initiate the riots. The Hindus respond. The judiciary and administration leans upon the Hindus to stop, because they will listen. However, this is not acceptable.
* Those who initiate riots MUST face police action.

However, by the point of a riot, things have already escalated beyond the point of civilized democratic activity. This happens too easily, and that is because there is no skin in the game for any protester, in general. You can pretty much get incited to burn buses one day and go back to work the next day. And by then, the discourse has dissolved into a he said-she said argument with no winners.

It's a lot harder to fix situations that are already past critical mass of social violence. However, solutions can be legitimately implemented (and already are being implemented) to ensure that the cost of getting to this point is MUCH higher, specifically for everyone actually protesting. In any modern society, a plan for a protest needs engagement with police and civic authorities beforehand. Given the Indian context, organizers need to take out insurance against potential damage, and sign liability statements requiring they clean up the premises afterwards, or pay towards it.

Yogi Adityanath's move here is excellent. It's not punitive to so after rioters for the monetary damages. The problem with it is that it is just as ad hoc, bu one smart person. It needs to be a national level legal framework. It does not impact freedom of speech, anymore that the legal requirement to have liability cover and risk of damages from causing an auto accident affects freedom of movement.

One might say 'yes these are all nice laws, but it will fix nothing right here and now'. That may be true. But there's a very potent approach to handling the here and now that is NOT getting anywhere near the amount of emphasis it should:

Delegitimization

A protest - a legitimate expression of dissent - that has been violent for 3 months now, no longer has legitimacy as a protest. It's nothing more than an ongoing riot. One can use SM to carpetbomb with any number of quotes from Gandhi, Vivekananda, Gita, MLK, whoever - the baseline is that resorting to violence has already delegitimized this 'movement'.

Refuse to listen. Refuse to debate. Refuse to explain. Refuse negotiation. Refuse everything, and simply assert that violence has already delegitimized them. The 'anti anti-CAA people' have nothing to lose in this argument, since they were never protesting anything - they're simply opportunistic counter-rioters.

The only people making demands and wanting something are the anti-CAA people. Refuse to listen. This is no different from refusing to negotiate with hostage takers. They have NOWHERE to go but
1) escalate more, face more pain
2) give up, find something else later
An option 3) negotiated changes to CAA or its removal, is OFF . Even a discussion on discussing it is out of the picture. Assert the willingness to take even more rioting, but they have only two options. Option 3 is out of the picture, and must be asserted in very simple terms across all SM and all interaction.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 27 Feb 2020 10:16

pankajs wrote:6 years they haven't been able to punish the fake news generators and fear mongers! That is ineptitude.

+1. To be frank looks like it is social media which is actually saving Modi and the BJP. And that too because there are common Hindus who still take time and effort to spread the correct news. On the Delhi riots, main stream media in Kerala was repeatedly chanting lies and half truths. The state BJP leadership did nothing. And it was the common BJP and RSS worker who used social media to expose the lies then and there. But this unpaid job cannot go one for ever. The main stream media is now nothing but a lie making factory, but GoI seems to be doing nothing on that.

Vidur wrote:Let me share my experience as a DM. Its usually 'minority' community which riots. Police is usually ineffective. So 'majority' has no option but to defend itself.

This seems to be the trend every where in India. May be you can share some more insights. How is that 'minority' community always finds it easy to summon a large number of people from their side? My gut feeling is that due to the nature of jobs in which the minority community specialises it is easy for them to take quick 'business decisions' and leave their work for a short while (eg. plumbers, *smiths, electricians etc.). Where as the majority community takes up more 'full time jobs' which makes their presence in their work places mandatory for x hours. Due to the very nature of the 'full time jobs' the majority community generally will always be scared of landing up in court cases, police stations, RDO courts etc. This itself perhaps makes the majority community always remain silent spectators.


UlanBatori wrote:6. Moplah Riots. True, it stopped the riots cold, but was it essential to go kill all villagers?

On the way the Brits handled Moplah riots, I feel it was quite decent (when compared to their usual style). Places where entire villagers were rounded up were in areas which were Moplah strong holds (mainly some areas which are close to Nilambur sub-division of Malappuram district). That was then a densely forested land rising upto a small mountain which is part of the Nilgiri hills. Here the brits used small artillery and mortars etc to force the peacefool rioters to come out of their hiding places to open ground. And in open ground, there were Gorkha and Kachin troops (today's Assam Rifles) waiting for them to deal in a person to person basis. In other areas where there were bigger cases of dacoity, arson or looting there was collective fine imposed on Muslims. And in other areas it was transportation for life (to the exotic location of Andamans). And once the area was completely sanitised the Brits gave an option to the families of the men enjoying life in Andamans to join them.

Ambar wrote:There were signs between Christmas and early January that anti CAA protests pretty much lost its steam in most parts of India

This is the reality. Other than Shaheen Bagh (a suburb of New Delhi) NO other Indian city has seen any continous protest that too causing discomfort to the general populace. Bangalore, Pune is running 100% normal. In Chennai the peacefool protestors tried their drama for a day, after that nothing heard from there. In Mumbai it is business as usual. The Anti-CAA protests are now only in Muslim ghettos/strong holds in India, but in Delhi they some how seem to inflict more damage.

GoI went on PR offensive through newspaper ads, on new channels, door to door campaigning to educate people on CAA but was no use. It would have worked had there been a genuine gripe against CAA, but what we saw/seeing is a total war against the government, the constitution and the Hindu faith by multiple forces

Those multiple forces have got exposed. But again more than any effort from government, it was the common Hindu's effective use of social media which saved the day. What ever the main stream media says, it is now quite obvious that the Muslim minority community still has plans to run over the majority community. Hiding that with any excuse is NOT going to work.

Karan M wrote:They actually want parts of the country shut down economically to force the Govt. What prevents them from emerging in a huge mob and attacking in an entirely different area?

The Muslim rioters can do that, but that community also is involved in business. Revenue losses are going to hit them as well. What ever MSM says, even today the Anti-CAA riots have only been of some effect in Muslim ghettos/dominated areas. In Delhi perhaps the governments and police bungled up, but there is still a vast territory of India where things are running perfectly fine.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 27 Feb 2020 10:22

Mean while Deccan Herald has become the new 'The Hindu' 8) :evil:
Resolute :roll: Amulya tells police her pro-Pak slogans were mistaken. Looks like this woman is part of a bigger gang of activists.

HC unhappy with Hubballi Bar Association's resolution to not represent Kashmiri students slapped with sedition

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_P » 27 Feb 2020 10:26

Karan M wrote:
amdavadi wrote:We had one small riot in Delhi and we are talking about mini civil war? What was 1984? What was 1989 bhagalpur riots and all the riots in Gujarat during Con govt.


This is not merely Delhi. Dont know where you guys are and what you've been looking at but this is merely the most public recent event. The whole of UP was sought to be set ablaze as well. 50 plus cops were shot, wounded in UP. The number of cops shot at would be far far higher. There were attempts to riot even in INC ruled states. Please dont mistake what's appearing right now as the only event.


+1

Strange that a poster calling himself 'Amdavadi' doesn't (or claims not to) know about riots happening in Gujarat :?:

Gujarat: Khambhat witnesses fresh round of violence; mob sets house, shop ablaze

Gujarat’s coastal town Khambhat in Anand district district on Tuesday witnessed a fresh round of violence on Tuesday as a mob set a house and shop ablaze in Mochiwad area of the town

A total of 95 persons, along with a mob of 1,000 persons belonging to both the communities were booked in four different offences at Khambhat city police station
Last edited by ramana on 28 Feb 2020 02:17, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited by ramana. No need for useless remarks, in these charged times.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby khan » 27 Feb 2020 10:34

IMO, as a long time BRFite, this thread shouldn’t exist. BRF needs to go back to its roots of being a neutral apolitical forum focused on strategic affairs instead of taking religious or political sides.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_P » 27 Feb 2020 10:40

Sachin wrote:
Vidur wrote:Let me share my experience as a DM. Its usually 'minority' community which riots. Police is usually ineffective. So 'majority' has no option but to defend itself.

This seems to be the trend every where in India. May be you can share some more insights. How is that 'minority' community always finds it easy to summon a large number of people from their side? My gut feeling is that due to the nature of jobs in which the minority community specialises it is easy for them to take quick 'business decisions' and leave their work for a short while (eg. plumbers, *smiths, electricians etc.). Where as the majority community takes up more 'full time jobs' which makes their presence in their work places mandatory for x hours. Due to the very nature of the 'full time jobs' the majority community generally will always be scared of landing up in court cases, police stations, RDO courts etc. This itself perhaps makes the majority community always remain silent spectators.



Interesting observation.

Perhaps another point to consider - for summoning a large number of people communication is vital, as is known place to assemble and a instigator/s to initiate the actual action. Now what are the ways of communication? Mobile, Whatsapp etc are available on both sides. Now where do you see congregations of the minority community on a daily basis and what is the mode of summoning them there?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_P » 27 Feb 2020 10:42

khan wrote:IMO, as a long time BRFite, this thread shouldn’t exist. BRF needs to go back to its roots of being a neutral apolitical forum focused on strategic affairs instead of taking religious or political sides.


I, for one, am happy that this thread exists. Ever since it was started (by Ramana ji, i think) it has become like the Jupiter of this forum. The other specific threads are now much more cleaner (with relevant posts) :D

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 27 Feb 2020 10:55

To continue from the earlier post , the most direct response towards the current riot situation is to emphasize and focus on the existence of violence .

People lament the ‘weaknesses of the Hindu psyche’. Sure there are . Others have weaknesses too . The Islamist psyche is fundamentally geared towards violence. There is no possibility of quiet calm compromise. It does not sit with any aspect of their psyche . Violence is great . It is glorified . Even a goat with its neck slit bleeding to death is great.

‘You’re violent , therefore you’re claim has no legitimacy in civil society’ is a position they cannot counter because there’s nothing in their psyche to do so . Self moderation as a concept does not exist . As Vidur said, riots are always controlled by appealing to Hindus and not to Muslim rioters . That’s because the former has psyche responsive to it.

”Your violence delegitimizes you” is a hole they cannot crawl out of without being beaten into submission or via taqqiya . By refusing to engage while there’s violence, they’ll never obtain their aims. There’ll be violence, though ...

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby amdavadi » 27 Feb 2020 11:04

Manish_P wrote:
Karan M wrote:


This is not merely Delhi. Dont know where you guys are and what you've been looking at but this is merely the most public recent event. The whole of UP was sought to be set ablaze as well. 50 plus cops were shot, wounded in UP. The number of cops shot at would be far far higher. There were attempts to riot even in INC ruled states. Please dont mistake what's appearing right now as the only event.


+1

Strange that a poster calling himself 'Amdavadi' doesn't (or claims not to) know about riots happening in Gujarat :?:

Gujarat: Khambhat witnesses fresh round of violence; mob sets house, shop ablaze

Gujarat’s coastal town Khambhat in Anand district district on Tuesday witnessed a fresh round of violence on Tuesday as a mob set a house and shop ablaze in Mochiwad area of the town

A total of 95 persons, along with a mob of 1,000 persons belonging to both the communities were booked in four different offences at Khambhat city police station


Manish

What it has to do with my ID? There were multiple riots during 70s,80s,90s all over Gujarat and other parts of India. What's happening in Gujarat is still a riot but not a mini civil war just like what's happening in Delhi.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_P » 27 Feb 2020 11:09

Definition of Civil War -

A civil war, also known as an intrastate war in polemology,[1] is a war between organized groups within the same state or country. The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region or to change government policies

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby prasan » 27 Feb 2020 11:36

Manish_P wrote:
Karan M wrote:


This is not merely Delhi. Dont know where you guys are and what you've been looking at but this is merely the most public recent event. The whole of UP was sought to be set ablaze as well. 50 plus cops were shot, wounded in UP. The number of cops shot at would be far far higher. There were attempts to riot even in INC ruled states. Please dont mistake what's appearing right now as the only event.


+1

Strange that a poster calling himself 'Amdavadi' doesn't (or claims not to) know about riots happening in Gujarat :?:

Gujarat: Khambhat witnesses fresh round of violence; mob sets house, shop ablaze

Gujarat’s coastal town Khambhat in Anand district district on Tuesday witnessed a fresh round of violence on Tuesday as a mob set a house and shop ablaze in Mochiwad area of the town

A total of 95 persons, along with a mob of 1,000 persons belonging to both the communities were booked in four different offences at Khambhat city police station


Two swords cannot be contained in one sheath. Ek mayan mein do talwar nahi reh sakti.
We cant be making equal equal in riots.
Hindus need to be given advantage by police and govt.



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