2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Karan M
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 02 Apr 2020 00:31

Sicanta wrote:CPRO Northern Railway - ये लोग सुबह से अनियंत्रित थे और खाने पीने की अनुचित मांग कर रहे थे। उन्होंने क्वारंटाइन सेंट्रों के कर्मचारियों के साथ दुर्व्यवहार किया। इसके अलावा उन्होंने काम करने वाले सभी लोगों और डॉक्टरों पर थूकना शुरु कर दिया। हॉस्टल बिल्डिंग में भी घूम रहे थे

These people have been uncontrollable since morning. Making unjust demands. Started misbehaving with workers and spit on doctors there. Were loitering in the hostel.
https://twitter.com/AHindinews/status/1 ... 01376?s=19


10 sticks to their over-entitled rears will make them think twice before spitting on any doctor.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Arun.prabhu » 02 Apr 2020 00:38

Their lot has never been fair, but at least they had the opportunity to earn a meal. If the wage earner were hospitalized or died an untimely death - and so many of them do - the extended family and friends would lend a hand. I bore about a fifth of the marriage costs of a poor relative myself not too long ago. My wife was talking about giving some money to one of my relatives to tide things over a day or two back. But not all the poor have relatives who can spare or can find good samaritans. And with a lockdown, the extended family and friend network that supports them during a crisis is paralyzed.

As for economic stimulus, how much of it is going to reach the hands of the poor? I know of people who had to pay bribes to get the money from the funds the PM announced for poor people's homes. Getting money from the bureaucracy if you are poor is no small task. Getting money from the bureaucracy even if you are educated and well off is a pain. My father had choice words when I asked him why in hell I had to submit color photocopies of my pan card - front and back no less (what is there on the back the ****** world wonders) - as proof of legal heir of my dear departed mother.

The point is, the lot of the poor is always one of hardship and little hope.

As for the national calamity line, the lockdown is also a national calamity. I'd willingly pay the price if I were convinced the disease spread can be stopped, but I'm not. China just locked down another province in Henan today, btw. Reason: asymptomatic carriers - don't believe their tall lies about foreigners carrying the disease into china - and no herd immunity. As with China today, so will India in the months to come. Are we going to keep on locking down our economy over and over again? And to what purpose? Strangle the economy and destroy the hopes of our destitute and poor to fight a forlorn war? I'm sure the majority of folks here disagree with me, but I promise you, we'll see flareups until mass vaccinations are done or the disease gets out of the control and burns itself out after infecting a large percentage of the population.

Kaivalya wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:They might as well commit suicide as go to a loan shark without a job because they'll be buried in debt feeding their family and themselves until the economy gets back on its feet.


Saar...imagine all this and losing the one or two wage earners in the family because of covid. Or the same people incapacitated in a bed for 2 months. Yes it is hard - covid is making it harder not lockdown. With lockdown the spread rate is lower and hopefully we can flatten the curve with less than 3000-5000 people infected. Then we can think about economic stimulus, differential support system etc.

People need to understand that once the flow of money stops, it can't be restarted easily. Demonetization took us how long to recover? And that was with slowdown of the velocity of money. This lockdown is going to bring it to almost a stop.


When hit by a national calamity / worldwide calamity everyone is going to feel it for a while. For now, the fight is to stop spread, take care of people dying/incapacitated. Please do not compare apple to oranges whatever your opinion is about demonetization.

Once we win in terms of tactical battle, we can worry about strategy and longer term impacts. For now we don't know what the impact is going to be. Please see the khan president saying- "we will be good by Easter" then next day he says "200000 people are going to die and this might last till june" etc. Bottomline is no one knows the big picture except for his/her pain.



agupta wrote:I have no comments to offer on the politics etc - but worry that you sir are a bit out of touch of the reality of the lower classes ... do you seriously believe “ you cannot starve in the city”? Maybe a typo since u yourself indicate a reason as to why one could starve; so out of touch that we translate a politicians declaration “ no one should charge rent” into instant translation to reality on the ground?
[/quote]

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Arun.prabhu » 02 Apr 2020 00:53

Karan,
1. You are kind. And I'm sure there are a lot of others who are paying their staff salaries. The ones that aren't being paid... 2. Those side businesses are very lucrative. I've heard more than one share auto driver tell me that while people look down upon his ilk, he earns more than a lot of IT guys. LMAO.

I'm not sure digitalization of currency is something to be happy about. When Chennai got flooded four years back, we had no electricity for a week and no internet or phones either. All the digital money in the world meant dick all then. Paper money is a must. I trust the banks to ****** me over at the first opportunity. So, no thanks on the Digital currency revolution front. I say that as a profligate user of credit cards who uses digital transactions for better than 90% of my expenses.

BTW, I'll point out the loans have to repaid or we simply push the economic pain can a few years down the line. With what I'm hearing through my network on contacts, the loans will be tantamount to kicking the can for a lot of those businesses.

WFH is a privilege of those in IT and a few others, including thrice-damned call centers.

Karan M wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:How can anyone not have seen paupers reduced to skin and bones in our cities? How can we employ people to cook and clean our homes and not know how hard their lives are?


I can assure you the people who cook and clean in my house are not at all bothered right now. They are treating it as an extended holiday, know most of us (at least we are) paying them the full salary during the period. Their only gripe is their secondary source of income/side-hustle which was very lucrative (1-2K/day running small food joint etc) is shut down during the period.

You have a valid point about the homeless and that group - that's where NGOs and Govt are doing their bit but yes, they would be affected.

We have three-four hundred million people below the poverty line. They have no safety nets apart from their jobs, families and friends and loan sharks. The lockdown took away the first for those people, including their extended families and friends. They might as well commit suicide as go to a loan shark without a job because they'll be buried in debt feeding their family and themselves until the economy gets back on its feet.

People need to understand that once the flow of money stops, it can't be restarted easily. Demonetization took us how long to recover? And that was with slowdown of the velocity of money. This lockdown is going to bring it to almost a stop. My friend, who is manufacturing masks and PPE informs me all his customers have stopped payments. He still needs to pay upfront for his raw material. He needs to meet his EMI commitments - if not for the next three months, then after - and he needs to pay his staff. I received an email from HDFC - as must many of you from your banks - that the moratorium on EMIs does not come with a freeze on interest accrual. Interest accrues for the there months. You just don't get reported to the credit bureaus as a defaulter.


The GOI understands this, hence the focus on getting loan disbursals to SMEs and also, making sure money is directly reaching the needy. This will also spur the focus towards digitalization. Several of the folks including small scale guys I know refused it so far - they didnt want account tracking, tax hassles. But now, they will understand the need.

Oh, I heard from sources that organizations such as Pfizer are paying their employees 30% of their usual salary. They can subsist on it or quit their jobs. In this market. During a pandemic.


I am not sure all organizations are equally harsh. But personally speaking, I'd rather have a job with a lower pay for a fewer months than no job at all. I am more concerned that many Indian organizations still dont seem to understand WFH is a valid method of working and can be scaled up even beyond such a pandemic. Many cost-centers in India have become very used to billing their customers in their own org abroad heavily using exaggerated costs for real-estate. I suspect that's a big reason why they are so resistant to change.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 02 Apr 2020 01:08

Arun.prabhu wrote:Karan,
1. You are kind. And I'm sure there are a lot of others who are paying their staff salaries. The ones that aren't being paid... 2. Those side businesses are very lucrative. I've heard more than one share auto driver tell me that while people look down upon his ilk, he earns more than a lot of IT guys. LMAO.


I am just doing the bare minimum saar. PM asked for this in his address as well. Yeah IT/salary folks have no idea about side hustle stuff - we are clueless and corporate rats chasing our cheese whereas outside folks are far more entrepreneurial. In one week my maid earned some 45K (zero taxes) and promptly purchased jewellery. The other issue is they simply wont save. I am doing whatever possible to make them aware of bank accounts etc. But ...

I'm not sure digitalization of currency is something to be happy about. When Chennai got flooded four years back, we had no electricity for a week and no internet or phones either. All the digital money in the world meant dick all then. Paper money is a must. I trust the banks to ****** me over at the first opportunity. So, no thanks on the Digital currency revolution front. I say that as a profligate user of credit cards who uses digital transactions for better than 90% of my expenses.


Infra is always a challenge for an emerging country but we can't use the outlier as a norm for everyday experience either.. I firmly believe in digital currency wherever possible (keep cash at hand for emergencies) because at times like this, its a literal lifesaver.. you dont have to touch money, the wallet transactions go through and the delivery guy can keep the supplies outside.. I dont have to break quarantine to run to an ATM.
My milk guy is the only hold-out. He says he has no time to go to a bank to withdraw money and he doesn't have an ATM card. Like it or not, if his customers stop turning up for him, he will have to change. Its the usual norm of business.

BTW, I'll point out the loans have to repaid or we simply push the economic pain can a few years down the line. With what I'm hearing through my network on contacts, the loans will be tantamount to kicking the can for a lot of those businesses.


Yes, so have an interest rate moratorium. Give the honest folks a few extra months to rustle up the cash and repay without taking a hit to the pocket.

WFH is a privilege of those in IT and a few others, including thrice-damned call centers.


99% of pvt sector office work in India bar some BFSI stuff can be handled from home given internet and a laptop, desktop. It will decongest our traffic and massively boost productivity. Not just IT IMHO.

Its become a facet of desi insecurity that we feel people have to be in office and do salam saab to manager saab daily to be suitably employed. We cite all sorts of stuff about data security etc which is truth to some degree but even that can be managed around - the basic issue is mindset.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 02 Apr 2020 01:19

Arun.prabhu wrote:Their lot has never been fair, but at least they had the opportunity to earn a meal. If the wage earner were hospitalized or died an untimely death - and so many of them do - the extended family and friends would lend a hand. I bore about a fifth of the marriage costs of a poor relative myself not too long ago. My wife was talking about giving some money to one of my relatives to tide things over a day or two back. But not all the poor have relatives who can spare or can find good samaritans. And with a lockdown, the extended family and friend network that supports them during a crisis is paralyzed.


Now who's being kind. Good on you.

As for economic stimulus, how much of it is going to reach the hands of the poor? I know of people who had to pay bribes to get the money from the funds the PM announced for poor people's homes. Getting money from the bureaucracy if you are poor is no small task. Getting money from the bureaucracy even if you are educated and well off is a pain. My father had choice words when I asked him why in hell I had to submit color photocopies of my pan card - front and back no less (what is there on the back the ****** world wonders) - as proof of legal heir of my dear departed mother.


I am sorry to hear about your mom. May she get moksha.
About the money part, the aim is to use Aadhar and a variety of measures to get cash directly to the jan dhan bank account. State to state, there are various cash transfers as well.

The point is, the lot of the poor is always one of hardship and little hope.


Things aren't as bad as we think they are either. In my state, the poor (quite a few of whom aren't) are getting tons of free rations (literally) - they keep some for home use. Sell the rest on the market for extra income. My cook offers us her rice, wheat flour every now and then as well. Its hilarious in an ironic kind of way but she can't understand why we won't take up the offer. The same in the rural areas. Most guys come to the city to work for few months for extra cash - cable TV, that new bike, son wants something etc, build a new house. The problem of everyday hunger is no longer widespread but there will be some people on the fringes who havent been able to access all this.
Also, the poorer states up north will not have this sort of setup in the remote districts. The Indian south, centre, west and north-east states have this well developed. UP and Bihar are getting there but judging by the folks who go to other states for work its still weak but Yogi/Nitish are extending support, Orissa, CG, Jharkhand have gaps in the remote areas. Also most folks are aware of (in my state) of Ayushman Bharat - have the free medical insurance, have all sorts of Govt stuff. Some of the local chaps have 3-4 medical insurances too. Then there's Modi's life insurance, pension plan, the free house loan, the gas-cylinder stuff.

Ironically, I find the salaried guys more near the poverty line than many of these contract workers. They are too proud to avail any of the above benefits or too clueless as they simply don't even consider the above.

As for the national calamity line, the lockdown is also a national calamity. I'd willingly pay the price if I were convinced the disease spread can be stopped, but I'm not. China just locked down another province in Henan today, btw. Reason: asymptomatic carriers - don't believe their tall lies about foreigners carrying the disease into china - and no herd immunity. As with China today, so will India in the months to come. Are we going to keep on locking down our economy over and over again? And to what purpose? Strangle the economy and destroy the hopes of our destitute and poor to fight a forlorn war? I'm sure the majority of folks here disagree with me, but I promise you, we'll see flareups until mass vaccinations are done or the disease gets out of the control and burns itself out after infecting a large percentage of the population.


A massive pandemic is something we simply cannot afford. Like I said our destitute and poor are capable of mostly accessing a very extensive network of food rations and services which we sometimes underestimate. State Govts aren't stupid. They want to get reelected and go to extreme lengths to provide free stuff.
OTOH - our medical infra will simply be unable to handle a pandemic if the curve isn't flattened. Due to a variety of reasons I have been around too many hospitals for the past few years and I can literally see the issues they face with our population burden and also the behavior of certain groups who take socially responsible behavior as some sort of joke.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby krishna_krishna » 02 Apr 2020 01:25

Karan M wrote:Lets not oversell these folks. The parents and the kid were known to the family and neighbours ages ago.

They were just like many other Govt servants with ambitious, intelligent kids who did well abroad.

There were many folks of that generation who literally dripped patriotism 100x of which I know of. Refusing a US citizenship, green card was no big deal. If you hang around with people of that era patriotism was de jure. Different matter that they elected, and worked for a family which literally ruined India! True irony.



Utter Shame if true, I only said from what's available in public domain. Neither do I know him /his family personally, however my post was based on what I read in kaoboys of RAW, his father was Kao's most-trusted aide then.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 02 Apr 2020 01:30

krishna_krishna wrote:
Karan M wrote:Lets not oversell these folks. The parents and the kid were known to the family and neighbours ages ago.

They were just like many other Govt servants with ambitious, intelligent kids who did well abroad.

There were many folks of that generation who literally dripped patriotism 100x of which I know of. Refusing a US citizenship, green card was no big deal. If you hang around with people of that era patriotism was de jure. Different matter that they elected, and worked for a family which literally ruined India! True irony.



Utter Shame if true, I only said from what's available in public domain. Neither do I know him /his family personally, however my post was based on what I read in kaoboys of RAW, his father was Kao's most-trusted aide then.


No shame sirji, I didn't mean to or intend to disparage his parents - all I meant was they were just like any other Govt family around. They had smart kids, who wanted to settle abroad while parent's were well-settled and competent in their Govt jobs.

However, what I also meant was the parents weren't that unusual. I have been around a lot of folks of that generation - parent's colleagues, bureaucrats, scientific staff and all I can say is many of them have awe-inspiring patriotism, which would make many normal folks think it was unusual. Some in that generation were something else. Not all of them though, as there were those who regarded Govt service as well, you know.

Others went above and beyond the call of duty. For instance doctors who turned up during an industrial disaster to serve poor patients despite the threat to their lives, despite having kids at home. Giving off part of their pittance of a salary to buy medicines for their patients. Saving every penny while being honest because they wanted their kids to have a good life, or contributing to a poor relation or a social cause.

This sort of everyday stuff because they committed their lives to India, is something that is very hard to express in words.

Their kids also carry that trait. For instance, refusing a US citizenship, despite marriage or fancy credentials making it very easy, until it literally became a necessity because they are just obsessed with the idea of having an Indian passport. Meanwhile the parents don't take US citizenship either because they regard it as sacrilege. Kids who refuse MNC assignments and go to the armed forces, land up in IPKF, fight their way through and you won't even know about the whole thing till the parent comes home and casually mentions her kid is now all grown up.

So many such examples.

I mean in front of these silent folks, I just find Rajan's behavior to be very very pompous, self-seeking and obnoxious.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 02 Apr 2020 02:11

Arun.Prabhuji,

You are absolutely right in terms of the impact!

1. Your skepticism of china , us lockdowns are accurate as well as babudom bribery. Please search for Bill gates interviews where he still implores complete lockdown in the khan land where it is still not under complete lockdown because of laissez-faire capitalism. Now it doesn't matter as the only tool we have to manage covid is also useless. Now in the khan land and europe we just have to see what happens...

2. It is a question of belief : do we believe we can do better or just resign ourselves to the fact that 100s of thousands are going to suffer and die. I would say that the world/India will be a much darker place in every which way. We will know in 10 days or so. Trust me if it starts spreading like NY in India, the consequences cannot be imagined.

My prayers are for India to be relatively unscathed once this jamaat covidiots are jailed. I hope that there can be credit made available on a national basis. Anyone with a jan dhan bank account or some sort gets a interest free loan of 10000 rupees per month (based on job loss, business loss, income loss etc) to avoid dire scenarios and help out like you do

Last from me on this topic. Forgive me if I sound insensitive.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 02 Apr 2020 02:42

Lets be data driven - can somebody take a shot at seeing how many people are covered under state wise subsidy, loan, cash transfer programs? I'll do it if nobody takes a shot but its pretty late right now. I suspect a lot of folks concerned about poor people etc are/were like me unaware of the level and depth of our Govt driven benefits network. India has changed significantly for the better but we often miss it.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby anmol » 02 Apr 2020 02:48

deleted (wrong thread)
Last edited by anmol on 02 Apr 2020 02:58, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 02 Apr 2020 02:53

For folks who are living in India on this forum, how many of you are watching Ramayan?

It seems to be a masterstroke by the Govt. to rerun this serial in these times. SM seems to be on fire with the younger generation in awe of the Serial and getting touch with the scriptures. This will have long term implications, especially for shows like Sacred Games wherein the practising Sanatani is shown in a poor light.

Many youngsters are rediscovering their inner Sanatani.

I think that the rerun of these serials is a shot across the bow where Bollywood is concerned. What do you folks think?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 02 Apr 2020 02:58

In the meantime:
OpIndia

FIRs filed against The Wire Founder-Editor Siddharth Varadarajan for spreading fake news about Yogi Adityanath

The Founder-Editor of The Wire had taken quotes of an expelled mahant and misattributed them to Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to whitewash the Tablighi Jamaat superspreaders.


Mrityunjay Kumar, the media advisor to the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, informed that despite the warning from the state government, Varadarajan neither deleted the false article and nor apologised for the same. Therefore, an FIR has been registered against him and actions been taken as warned earlier. “If you are also thinking about Yogi government kindly remove such thinking from your brain”, Kumar warned others about spreading fake news about UP govt.

Varadarajan claimed that on the day Tablighi Jamaat event was being held, “Adityanath insisted a large Ram Navami fair planned for Ayodhya from March 25 to April 2 would proceed as usual and that ‘Lord Ram would protect devotees from the coronavirus”.


The Founder-Editor of The Wire took quotes of an expelled mahant and misattributed them to Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to whitewash the Tablighi Jamaat superspreaders.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 02 Apr 2020 03:09

Unfortunatley this bloody s**m knows nothing will happen to him. Unless you put them in jail for 6 months, they never learn.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 02 Apr 2020 03:10

https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/ ... 8160626689

“A Chinese woman proudly filmed herself buying huge amount of facemasks from multiple US supermarkets and loaded the masks onto her pickup truck. "It feels so awesome to buy all the masks! I didn't leave a single mask for the Americans!" -via Hong Kong journalist


How can you be so evil. I'm more and more convinced now that this is a bio-weapon unleashed by Chinese.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 02 Apr 2020 03:13

vimal wrote:https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/1245429428160626689

“A Chinese woman proudly filmed herself buying huge amount of facemasks from multiple US supermarkets and loaded the masks onto her pickup truck. "It feels so awesome to buy all the masks! I didn't leave a single mask for the Americans!" -via Hong Kong journalist


How can you be so evil. I'm more and more convinced now that this is a bio-weapon unleashed by Chinese.


They have done it in all the countries that they live in Australia, Canada, US and even in India where Chinese nationals bought and sent them back to PRC.

Locust is the right term used previously on this thread.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 02 Apr 2020 04:02

vijayk wrote:Unfortunatley this bloody s**m knows nothing will happen to him. Unless you put them in jail for 6 months, they never learn.


Isn't he a US citizen? You would have to extradite him first. At least an FIR has been filed, though people will probably forget all about it after a couple of days.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 02 Apr 2020 04:12

Here is a director of harvard global health institute

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490534-harvard-expert-we-clearly-would-have-had-a-very-different-situation

As someone who warned the dangers of a pandemic 2015 on a Ted conference as well as committing 10s of millions of dollars for community spread research models as recently as 2017

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-gates-heres-how-to-make-up-for-lost-time-on-covid-19/2020/03/31/ab5c3cf2-738c-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html?outputType=amp

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 02 Apr 2020 04:14

The FIR filed by UP Govt should also include the local funders and owners of the Wire, plus the local journalist who filed the report.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Philip » 02 Apr 2020 04:31

Anti- Indian firang press reports should also be combated by the I&B ministry pro-actively.I've been battling v.close friends from abroad who've gone on an anti- Modi tirade about migrant problems,etc.I've told them off in swift and steely manner,asking them to compare Indian cases vs those in their countries,the decisiveness of our PM and central govt. and the combined responsibility of states as well regarding migrants. Yes,mistakes were made,babus have been sacked and we're getting to grips with the problem as a nation.

As for one piece about the disparity of " suffering",wine and cordon bleu meals in Delhi while the migrants suffer,what about British royals deserting their " people" , hiding in Windsor Castle ( the Queen) abandoning their own " people" while London battles the bug. Did her father abandon Buckingham Palace during the WW2 Blitz?
What about abandoning their own country ( Harry and Meghan running off to Canada and from there escaping to LA and Bel Air! ) ,amidst the rising tide of homeless left on doorsteps to die.

Compare this with Russia where Putin visited a hospital with CV patients ,where the head of Russian medicine has tested +ve. How many of the Brit. royals,even minor ones, been seen visiting the CV wards? At least Randy Andy the paedo prince ( Epstein scandal) who braved enemy fire inthe Falklands War as a helo pilot could in some small way improve his reputation by braving CV and visiting hospitals?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 02 Apr 2020 04:40

Maybe i am being an alarmist and a pessimist but after Modi's landslide victory in the last general elections, the BIF in general and the islamists in particular are getting restless and are egging for a civil war. For those of us on this forum the history or behavior of tableeghi jamat(TJ) should come as no surprise, but i don't think we should see the Delhi TJ markaz as a fringe incident. Ever since the CAA protests, all the BIFs have aligned and have launched a multi-prong attack on India. They have the mainstream leftist media and their western puppeteers providing cover fire, the social media platforms playing their usual dirty tricks against nationalist voices, the marxist and other assorted leftists coordinating very closely with islamo-supremacists to create violence and chaos everywhere and the traitorous bollywood searching for a virtue in all this. Today there were attacks on police and healthworkers in Indore, Madhubani, Ahmedabad among other places by muslims. There are many tiktok and Whattsapp videos being circulated by muslims that calls for spreading the virus to kill the non-believers, and we have the usual crooks like Arfa ,Saba, Rana, Burkha etc pouring more gasoline into fire. Even if the coronavirus passes and subsides in the weeks to come i believe there will be engineered protests and riots.

Imagine, no less than the NSA Ajit Doval had to go personally to the nizamuddin mosque and talk to the TJ maulvi to request the evacuation of 2300 people, something an ordinary sub inspector and a police force should be able to do. The NSA had previously had to personally come down and talk to rioting muslims during the Delhi riots. I am sorry to say, after brilliantly pulling of the abrogation of article 370/35A, the kashmir lockdown, handling triple talaq and the peace after Ram Mandir verdict, the home ministry and our intelligence agencies seems to have repeatedly been caught napping. The Delhi rioters organized and mobilized for weeks and everyone pretty much knew they'll go on a rampage the day Trump was visiting and yet took no measures, same with the riots that took place across many parts of India in December and January, then came the AAP organized forced exodus of migrant laborers and now the TJ markaz in the middle of a pandemic. What's worse are the number of foreign preachers who are tumbling out of every mosque from Indonesians, Thai, Uzbekis, Uygurs, Bangladeshis and what not. what on earth are our consulates doing issuing visas to these people ? Heads should roll in IB and the intelligence unit of Delhi Police. Amit Shah really needs to up his game because the BIF are just starting and will increase the attacks as UP elections get closer.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 02 Apr 2020 08:30

The government has decided to accept contributions from abroad to a fund announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to fight the coronavirus outbreak in the country, a decision that marks a shift from earlier position of not accepting foreign donations to deal with domestic crisis.
Is the bolded part deliberate mis-reporting or true? States like Kerala (and the commie brigade) has now started with another campaign that GoI did not allow GoKL to get funds from UAE when the state was flooded, but now is willing to take foreign monetary help to deal with COVID-19. I expect Congress also to now latch onto this as it was MMS Govt which had taken the decision to not to receive aid as money.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ricky_v » 02 Apr 2020 08:56

Junior hm is not upto the task, all delicate operations are being handled by the senior hm / nsa. I do hope that when the junior hm goes asking for hindu votes from protection from peacefuls, people laugh in his face.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 02 Apr 2020 09:01

Karan M wrote:Lets be data driven - can somebody take a shot at seeing how many people are covered under state wise subsidy, loan, cash transfer programs? I'll do it if nobody takes a shot but its pretty late right now. I suspect a lot of folks concerned about poor people etc are/were like me unaware of the level and depth of our Govt driven benefits network. India has changed significantly for the better but we often miss it.


Karanji - State program in tamil nadu has already handed 1000 Rs for every ration card family holder , along with free 15kg of rice, sugar and essentials at an outlay of 3280 crores. This is in addition to central measures announced by NSji. If we watch the news channels, rent seems to be the next challenge which is hard to enforce. Hence my loan suggestion


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/covid-19-all-family-cardholders-in-tamil-nadu-to-get-rs-1000/articleshow/74787164.cms

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/south/tn-cm-announces-rs-1000-to-ration-card-holders-additional-dole-to-workers-817097.html

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vishvak » 02 Apr 2020 10:08

.. that calls for spreading the virus to kill the non-believers

The virus have made these come out against their own gene pool for long term power grab.

Philip sir and others prolly better not waste ammo and not sour relations during epidemic. Just a suggestion.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby shaun » 02 Apr 2020 10:38

Ambar wrote:Maybe i am being an alarmist and a pessimist but after Modi's landslide victory in the last general elections, the BIF in general and the islamists in particular are getting restless a..............


check this sir ,

https://twitter.com/desimojito/status/1 ... 7378036736

and this guy have a point..worth reading
https://twitter.com/Iyervval/status/1245430825572696064

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 02 Apr 2020 10:53

Bart S wrote:
vijayk wrote:Unfortunatley this bloody s**m knows nothing will happen to him. Unless you put them in jail for 6 months, they never learn.


Isn't he a US citizen? You would have to extradite him first. At least an FIR has been filed, though people will probably forget all about it after a couple of days.


He lives in Delhi.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby a_bharat » 02 Apr 2020 11:31

GoI (and state governments) appear unnerved and clueless as to how to deal with Muslims, be it the Shaheen Bagh protesters, Tablighi a****les or the aam crowd pelting stones on cops and healthcare workers. How shameful is it for a country of India's size to send the NSA at 2:00 AM to convince plead with a smalltime scumbag to behave? Hope BJP leaders in governments stop being p***ies and do their duty. Start with showing contempt for presstitutes and not shy away from using danda wherever necessary.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2020 12:08

I wish people stop saying NSA is doing the job of a Sub Inspector.

The state uses the resources as needed.

As for SI authority it has been severely eroded by political interference.
It's time to restore the authority of SI.
We will face internal threats from now one and police is the new frontier force in this internal security war,

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sum » 02 Apr 2020 12:31

a_bharat wrote:GoI (and state governments) appear unnerved and clueless as to how to deal with Muslims, be it the Shaheen Bagh protesters, Tablighi a****les or the aam crowd pelting stones on cops and healthcare workers. How shameful is it for a country of India's size to send the NSA at 2:00 AM to convince plead with a smalltime scumbag to behave? Hope BJP leaders in governments stop being p***ies and do their duty. Start with showing contempt for presstitutes and not shy away from using danda wherever necessary.

Saar, there is zero knowledge about the message which Doval delivered by landing there at 2 AM.

Might have been some soft spoken danda about likely future if they still played traunt and did not cooperate. Absolutely zero would have been achieved with visuals of maulans being caned or whipped on TV/social media which would have caused more mayhem in faithful circles ( the carriers had already gone all over India anyways).
This kind of act has handed a long rope to the TJ and it is happily hanging itself with it

The administration is too stretched thin to handle another fire. Am sure battles are being picked on their time and choosing.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby a_bharat » 02 Apr 2020 12:41

Saar, I hope you are right and I am wrong.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Pratyush » 02 Apr 2020 16:52

vijayk wrote:Unfortunatley this bloody s**m knows nothing will happen to him. Unless you put them in jail for 6 months, they never learn.


Naah, they will just claim martyrdom.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 02 Apr 2020 17:01

Primus wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:^^^
I was racking my brains as when I had hear about Tablighi Jammaat!!
here is the link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kafeel_Ahmed :shock:


The 9/11 terrorist from France, Zacarias Moussaoui was also TJ member as per Wiki.

Primusji
Thanks
I did send a wholesale tweets to all the liberandu pathrakars :lol: along with the wiki link of Kafeel Ahmed.
Will send the 9/11 wiki link as well.
So far no one has blocked me or 'responded in kind' :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_P » 02 Apr 2020 17:42

Includes comments from the senior police. Do read

How the Delhi police got Tablighi Jamaat to vacate their headquarters

Maulana Saad, leader of the orthodox Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jamaat who has been booked by the Delhi police for a congregation linked to a coronavirus super-speed cluster's case, says he is in isolation following medical advice.

He has not yet subjected himself to the law even as the Delhi police crime branch is looking for him.

When the nation is shocked by the events unfolding in the institution led by him, that he could escape the police's clutches is only because he is truly well-connected with senior political leaders cutting across party lines courting him.

Maulana Saad controls one of the richest religious groupings in India; he gets funds from the Gulf and also from Malaysia, Indonesia and Bangladesh.




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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SBajwa » 02 Apr 2020 18:59

Arun.prabhu wrote:How can anyone not have seen paupers reduced to skin and bones in our cities? How can we employ people to cook and clean our homes and not know how hard their lives are? We have three-four hundred million people below the poverty line. They have no safety nets apart from their jobs, families and friends and loan sharks. The lockdown took away the first for those people, including their extended families and friends. They might as well commit suicide as go to a loan shark without a job because they'll be buried in debt feeding their family and themselves until the economy gets back on its feet.

People need to understand that once the flow of money stops, it can't be restarted easily. Demonetization took us how long to recover? And that was with slowdown of the velocity of money. This lockdown is going to bring it to almost a stop. My friend, who is manufacturing masks and PPE informs me all his customers have stopped payments. He still needs to pay upfront for his raw material. He needs to meet his EMI commitments - if not for the next three months, then after - and he needs to pay his staff. I received an email from HDFC - as must many of you from your banks - that the moratorium on EMIs does not come with a freeze on interest accrual. Interest accrues for the there months. You just don't get reported to the credit bureaus as a defaulter.

Oh, I heard from sources that organizations such as Pfizer are paying their employees 30% of their usual salary. They can subsist on it or quit their jobs. In this market. During a pandemic.

agupta wrote:

I have no comments to offer on the politics etc - but worry that you sir are a bit out of touch of the reality of the lower classes ... do you seriously believe “ you cannot starve in the city”? Maybe a typo since u yourself indicate a reason as to why one could starve; so out of touch that we translate a politicians declaration “ no one should charge rent” into instant translation to reality on the ground?


There is already a litigation against the Chinese government worth $21 Trillion in USA.
What is stopping Indian government to cease all Chinese companies, bank accounts, etc in India?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 02 Apr 2020 19:51

" Start with showing contempt for presstitutes and not shy away from using danda wherever necessary"

Right on. This is not the time to be overly concerned about what the media will say. Special circumstances. Ruthlessness is the need of the hour with wretches like the Tabligh et al. Do what needs to be done, you'll have the majority of the people's backing.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 02 Apr 2020 20:14

Manish_P wrote:Includes comments from the senior police. Do read

How the Delhi police got Tablighi Jamaat to vacate their headquarters


Thanks for posting.

Yes, we should all read it. Good reporting by Sheela Bhatt. She brought us a picture of how things are, at ground level, from the pov of someone who actually had to do the job on a day-to-day basis.

Unfortunately, among the chattering classes (includes us here) respect for the person in the arena, and the job they do, is rare, and will remain so.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 02 Apr 2020 21:16

https://youtu.be/_tM-qVixFKo?t=1700
https://youtu.be/A2eXGGHXTfI
Very good talk of CAA and clash of civilisations
Why is this chap saideepak not inducted by BJP!!!

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 02 Apr 2020 21:30

Guys, I have noticed, white media has co-opted of all people, this anti-Hindu, Jihadi b!tch Rana Ayyub to mock and attack India's lock down. And the standard tripe, so many poor people who live close to each other bla bla. As if this bloody traitor and those pompous whites sitting in their plush studios care about SDRE poor.

Have you noticed another slimy thing with this Jhadi? Whenever she appears on white media, her dressing style is anything but Islamic, showing some sleeveless skin to give that appearance of a 'moderate', 'liberal' Muslim.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 02 Apr 2020 21:42

CRamS wrote:Guys, I have noticed, white media has co-opted of all people, this anti-Hindu, Jihadi b!tch Rana Ayyub to mock and attack India's lock down. And the standard tripe, so many poor people who live close to each other bla bla. As if this bloody traitor and those pompous whites sitting in their plush studios care about SDRE poor.

Have you noticed another slimy thing with this Jhadi? Whenever she appears on white media, her dressing style is anything but Islamic, showing some sleeveless skin to give that appearance of a 'moderate', 'liberal' Muslim.

Saar for this Prof.SuSwamy's answer: A moderate peaceful is an Oxymoron like 'boiled Ice-cream' :lol: :lol:
isn't it!!!


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