2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 250
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 03 Dec 2020 03:31

m_saini wrote:MSP and minimum wage aren't even remotely comparable. And minimum wage is definitely subject to market forces. Nobody *has* to hire you for $10/hour, it's just illegal to hire below it. If the chinese guy is willing to work for $2/hour, companies are going to go there, and they do. Should GoI set a MSP and go buy everything in international market at 1500 rather than the MSP at 1975?

Gov *has* to buy at MSP, and even after that it isn't illegal for the farmers to sell below MSP. Would you be willing to protest to make selling/buying below MSP illegal? you know, because working below minimum wage is illegal?

MSP is a *ceiling* price despite what the "minimum" in the name suggests, gov isn't going to buy anything above the MSP. And gen pop obviously won't. Compare that to the min wage, where people get hired above it all the time.


I have to disagree. Food security is paramount and agriculture should not be treated as a regular business. Can the govt go ahead and buy from the global market?

Sure, go ahead. Not a novel idea. It was attempted during UPA1 to procure wheat for PDS from Australia. What landed at ports in India was red wheat used for agricultural feed over there.

Smacks of corruption, yes of course. Any irregular purchase outside of a system that has not been refined over multiple iterations will have points of failure. The failure may be excusable for a regular business but not food. You can not outsource food production and not be subject to ridiculous demands. Look what happened to Russia during Trump sanctions. It is in government interest to keep agriculture attractive as a profession in India. It is far from attractive even now.

ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 250
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 03 Dec 2020 03:49

Suraj wrote:'No profit motive' is not the same as 'loss making'. An MSP 50% above market price is not 'no profit motive' - it's a huge loss-making fixed margin that the presence of absence of mandis will never pay for, and it is paid by taxing people who have nothing to do with farming. That money you get is coming at the cost of both other farmers (because not everyone gets MSP prices even if they are so defined) and the consumer who pays taxes that you do not have to pay as a farmer. If a farmer depends on MSP when open market costs are below it and others are offloading at that price, it means the farmer in question has a high cost structure.

Arguing for minimum wage and social stability needs to also acknowledge that you are demanding a subsidy. As a businessman I'm sure you understand that social stability cannot be assured by demanding a 30-50% additional margin on your production paid out of someone else's taxes ? Losing out on that may affect you, but that is the reality of any business. As long as you are honest in asserting that you are protesting for a dole to benefit your own standard of living, then we can have an honest conversation on the topic.

The reality is that large parts of the country do not function within the APMC system, and MSP is only set for about ~20 items. Of those, some or most of those farmers producing those crops do not even get paid MSP. This means that if you got paid the MSP, someone else did not get paid for producing exactly the same thing, and if you failed to get paid the MSP, someone else benefited.

I think we can both agree that the farm procurement system is broken. Farming cannot sustain lifestyles beyond a point - the margins are not there for it, without scale. That is a universal economic problem and is what drove industrialization. The government owes it to the country to drive progress in that direction. Eliminating distortions is part of their responsibility.

Rather than make an untenable argument about reverting to the past, what better argument would you offer regarding doing things better from what we've already accomplished ? Legalizing MSPs is not an answer - that is simply an argument to add a price distortion after another price distortion mechanism was removed.


Last post from me on the topic or chain. I have spent a lot of effort already though I think it was necessary.

- The government does not loose money on procurement. The selling price is still higher than what it pays for procurement.

- There is no 50% premium to the farmer. Even at current prices it is barely sustainable. So if you pay taxes to get food produced at sustenance prices it is still a good deal. What is the alternative, no food because you certainly are not going to get it cheaper from anywhere else.

- Sure if the agricultural system can not sustain lifestyles beyond a price and requires scale to be profitable. So how will open market pricing solve this problem? Suddenly being subject to a market economy is not going to make a farmer productive as a business man/ tradesman/engineer etc. Where is the sunset clause or transition period?

How could it be done better?
In my opinion, the size and breadth of the Indian economy is very small compared to its population.There is already an over supply of human resource compared to opportunities esp. in the pandemic economy. There is no immediate problem that needs fixing in agriculture. In fact agriculture is the only positive sector in the current economic scenario.

Over the long term, a general disinterest in agriculture alongwith better opportunities in private sector should help in land consolidation. That alongwith a better infra support for agricultural diatribution etc should help. The goal should be to provide more support and not be coercive in implementing a change.

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 868
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby V_Raman » 03 Dec 2020 04:04

Punjab govt/politicos are over-reliant on APMC and the money that comes in - that seems to be the main issue here. They need to diversify their sources as this goes down and become like rest of the states. They need to not notify - but they will miss out as the country moves on with contract farming and agri infrastructure. Hence the slogan of we cannot have one country two systems from the farmers. They have not choice but to notify and move on...

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 04:09

Dr Arvind Virmani@dravirmani·Nov 30
India's 1965-66 drought trauma led to building of a wheat-rice agriculture economy which is now a big drain on growth(high, wasteful/rotting FCI stocks). Other states have moved on, but Punjab refuses to do so, as it remains th major beneficiary of subsidies & FCI corruption

m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 400
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby m_saini » 03 Dec 2020 04:10

ManSingh wrote:I have to disagree. Food security is paramount and agriculture should not be treated as a regular business. Can the govt go ahead and buy from the global market?

Sure, go ahead. Not a novel idea. It was attempted during UPA1 to procure wheat for PDS from Australia. What landed at ports in India was red wheat used for agricultural feed over there.

Smacks of corruption, yes of course. Any irregular purchase outside of a system that has not been refined over multiple iterations will have points of failure. The failure may be excusable for a regular business but not food. You can not outsource food production and not be subject to ridiculous demands. Look what happened to Russia during Trump sanctions. It is in government interest to keep agriculture attractive as a profession in India. It is far from attractive even now.


That's not what my reply was about. You wrote

There is also the concept of a minimum wage, right? Should that also be subject to market forces? In a true market economy, yes it probably should be but what does it do the social stability of such a society?


which is factually false. Minimum wage *is* subject to market forces and isn't comparable to MSP. I never commented on whether food production should be outsourced or not. Asking rhetorical questions doesn't mean one wants the pope to shit in the woods.

It's *you* who wanted agriculture to be treated like a regular business when you compared it to min wage. And do you know what else was attempted during UPA1 era and not work out? everything. Maybe we should stop trying to give toilets to the poor people too, because it obviously didn't work under the UPA gov (again, this was rhetorical, in case it wasn't clear).

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 04:16

Sunil Jain@thesuniljain.

@narendramodi be fair to ALL states, DIVIDE annual FCI-spend equally Why should Punjab get so much FCI money when UP or other states produce more?

This is not a farmers' agitation, it is a Punjab agitation, critical to
@INCIndia survival

@capt_amarinder can be next Cong chief

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 04:24

Tushar@Bhatnagartusha·Nov 30

Every year we witness such agitations, either it is Gujjar aandolan, Jat aandolan, kisan aandolan.

Don't we have a right to work ? In our own little ways we are trying to bring out the country on the path of progress.

There are sections of population who are always sulking.

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 868
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby V_Raman » 03 Dec 2020 04:24

So the cat is out of the bag - Punjab is the key to CONgress survival - I thought it was Maharashtra all this time!

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 04:38

and some times, WhatsApp has intelligent things to say that comes as forwards

the so called "farmers" are autocratically endeavoring to interfere with our democracy by seeking the overturning of parliament passed legislations. here be dragons.

that's the route to anarchy, chaotic disorder and the most fundamental breakdown of the rule of law.

what happens if the same BIF seeks to overturn the Ram temple judgement or demand the reimposition of art 370 & 35A

and what if, one day soon, a nationwide BIF funded mob uprising demands and forces the handing over of cashmere to the pakis or violently insists that TN be allowed to secede from the union



If laws were made on streets.

There would be no abolition of Article 370 and Article 35A
There would no removal of Triple Talaq
There would never be any Ram Mandir
There would be No GST.
There would be no development.
There would be no Rule of Law.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 04:46

V_Raman wrote:So the cat is out of the bag - Punjab is the key to CONgress survival - I thought it was Maharashtra all this time!


the BIF need punjab because it is a border state and they have already so much invested so much in it by way of khalistan and sikh separatism and the ground there has been "partition" fertilized since the bhindranwale days :mrgreen:

a similar play is in progress in TN, again "partition" fertilized by the dravidian ploy and the so called language riots which is the first step to establishing a different identity, not in consonance with the idea of Indian nationhood.

the eelam war was their first attempt.

there are many Overton windows that have been embedded to seed the psyche of the Indian nationhood and inure it to the ideas of disintegration of the nation state.

the pakis and bollywood have been at it systematically for decades now along with the western led BIF

Similar trends are there for all to see in bengal and the northeastern states and cashmere. Kerala is another fairly fast developing trouble spot.
Last edited by chetak on 03 Dec 2020 04:57, edited 1 time in total.

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4693
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Dec 2020 04:52

There was a comment above on Sikh RSS relations. RSS is extremely subversive for jathedars, Akali Dal, Gyanis etc. Not because the RSS is antagonistic towards them but precisely because it isn't.The consequence is erosion of political power. The fear is one of reversion.

Secondly, Hindu identity and consolidation is paradoxically unacceptable to the fetish for Muslim identity in India. Likewise for Christian identity. There is a small section of the Sikhs for whom is it anathema-of course precisely that section for whom a distinct Sikh identity is an article of faith.

I do foresee turbulence in India. This is because of rising standards of living and now the luxury of the masses to ask themselves some questions left over from history, including partition.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13906
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 03 Dec 2020 05:31

ManSingh wrote:- The government does not loose money on procurement. The selling price is still higher than what it pays for procurement.

That's because you're saddling us - the consumer - with your costs. The open market has already priced the same product for much lower. Considering several states have more than half the production being sold in the open market means that MSPs are not what keeps production running. They are an artificial distortion, and if farmers need MSP to survive, their cost structure and lifestyle assumptions are too high.
ManSingh wrote:-- There is no 50% premium to the farmer. Even at current prices it is barely sustainable. So if you pay taxes to get food produced at sustenance prices it is still a good deal. What is the alternative, no food because you certainly are not going to get it cheaper from anywhere else.

The premium I'm quoting is the percentage by which MSP figure exceeds the open market price. If there exists a sizeable open market - which is indeed the case - and yet the farmer depends on the premium offered by the MSP to survive, the farmer has costs much in excess of those producing for the open market. The very existence of the open market disproves your argument that 'you are not going to get cheaper anywhere else' . If MSP aligned with costs, there would be no separate open market because the MSP has already discovered the correct price.
ManSingh wrote:- Sure if the agricultural system can not sustain lifestyles beyond a price and requires scale to be profitable. So how will open market pricing solve this problem? Suddenly being subject to a market economy is not going to make a farmer productive as a business man/ tradesman/engineer etc. Where is the sunset clause or transition period?

This is a good question, but I think it's too Punjab focused, or rather, focused on a state whose farmers predominantly depend upon the APMC *and* MSP (separate things). In other states, a large number of farmers no longer use APMC and cannot depend on MSP since they sell in the open market. What kind of transition period do farmers who have had to work within the APMC need ? How many years, and why ?
ManSingh wrote:The goal should be to provide more support and not be coercive in implementing a change.

You need to change your mindset here. All change is 'coercive'. If you are not ready to consider the incoming change as something you must deal with sooner rather than later, you'll always tend to defer the hard decisions needed to deal with them. This is human psychology. History is replete with entire companies and business areas failing to adapt to change and dying - Nokia, Xerox, Kodak... If you demand change should be optional, you've already failed to adapt.

Conversely, when you have a choice, you'll always take the easier one. This is why in warfare you never completely corner an enemy to finish them off - you give them at least one exit route so they know they always have the option of withdrawing rather than fight to the death. The latter leads them to fight harder, while the hope of preserving life in the knowledge of an exit will always lead them to fight less harder.

I think it's reasonable to ask for a sunset period. But these protests have nothing to do with such a reasoned argument. And demanding change be optional is just as harmful, because people more nimble than you will walk all over you in the process.

A sane farmer would see these protests as harmful. The reason is that the most sensible request - a sunset period - is not the primary demand. Instead, it's a collection of politically motivated protests from those opposed to the PM, while large corporate entities are happy to start dominating the farm sector and squeeze out those sitting around waiting and hoping the farm laws will die and they can go back to the same old system. The entities most affected by these protests are the Punjabi farmer, and the longer it runs, the more they are screwing themselves over.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5120
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 03 Dec 2020 05:37

Can someone file a PIL in SC to force famers where they can't block any access to in/out of Delhi?

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 05:57

sanjaykumar wrote:There was a comment above on Sikh RSS relations. RSS is extremely subversive for jathedars, Akali Dal, Gyanis etc. Not because the RSS is antagonistic towards them but precisely because it isn't.The consequence is erosion of political power. The fear is one of reversion.

Secondly, Hindu identity and consolidation is paradoxically unacceptable to the fetish for Muslim identity in India. Likewise for Christian identity. There is a small section of the Sikhs for whom is it anathema-of course precisely that section for whom a distinct Sikh identity is an article of faith.

I do foresee turbulence in India. This is because of rising standards of living and now the luxury of the masses to ask themselves some questions left over from history, including partition.


shaheenbagh exposed the decades old BIF mandated undercurrents that were not meant to be visible at this stage. The groundwork was in position and laid even before the britshits deliberately abandoned India in 1947, with a certainty that the resulting religious chaos which they had by political and social design precipitated, would rip apart this nascent nation and cause their house niggers in the congress party to petition HMG to return forthwith and restore the rule of law and stamp out the assumed centripetal forces of the erstwhile dominant states which the britshits hoped by then would have become dominant and well on their way to causing the disintegration of India.

when that did not work, the BIF moved in via the medium of the congress and the political and social bedlam that you see today was the direct result of perfidious social engineering and caste tinkering, including historical and educational deceptions, falsifications of history, whitewashing the role of the brutal invaders and inserting into the Hindu pysche, a sense of social guilt about various social practices that were in use for many centuries past.

vast unaccounted moneys started to flow into India from the west and the middle east and two religious ideologies started to dominate the national landscape, poisoning the legal and constitutional ecosystems which resulted in the marginalization of Hindus in their own land

this is also when, under the judicially propped up corrupted concept of sickularism, the minorities gained ascendancy over the majority and precipitated a situation that has no parallel anywhere in the world today.

it is inconceivable to think that neverwho was unaware of these things that were happening under his very nose.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 06:15

V_Raman wrote:Punjab govt/politicos are over-reliant on APMC and the money that comes in - that seems to be the main issue here. They need to diversify their sources as this goes down and become like rest of the states. They need to not notify - but they will miss out as the country moves on with contract farming and agri infrastructure. Hence the slogan of we cannot have one country two systems from the farmers. They have not choice but to notify and move on...


does anyone have figures/point to verifiable sources for farmer's suicides in punjab along with figures for other states

why are we stressing so much on contract farming, as though it is the panacea for all farming evils and it is the magic bullet to solve every problem.

This is one of the major sticking points that the agitators are raking up and for this "contract farming" to kick in, if it ever does, it will take some long years for the produce the required quality of farm goods and basic required infrastructure of cold storages, cold chains, temp controlled transportation, processing plants and market access to turn a decent profit

let the farmer sell wherever he wants.

If the infrastructure buildup takes place he will automatically use it if he sees for himself a better return for what he grows.

the punjab farmer remains competitive so long as his huge subsidies remain. This subsidy regime is not going to last very long as the states simply cannot afford it much longer.

the farmers in the southern states will demand a similar subsidy support from the govt and then the alarmed WTO will step in and forcefully drag India to the international courts/dispute resolution institutions

canada has already done so for the what it calls "unwarranted" subsidies given to Indian Farmers for growing pulses
Last edited by chetak on 03 Dec 2020 06:33, edited 1 time in total.

Sumeet
BRFite
Posts: 1537
Joined: 22 May 2002 11:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sumeet » 03 Dec 2020 06:32

Suraj, Mansingh, M saini and others especially those who are


Please watch this episode by Shekhar Gupta (seem like ghost of some BRFite has entered in him while he was speaking this Video)


arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3951
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby arshyam » 03 Dec 2020 07:05

The fact that the open market price is so much lower than MSP indicates that the market has a glut. Perversely, MSP itself is one of the main factors that contribute to it by distorting the market - many farmers grow these staples in the hopes of getting the MSP rate, and end up pushing the market price even lower. Maybe the new farm laws would help reduce some of our production of rice and wheat, a lot of which, even after FCI procurement at MSP, ends up rotting in godowns. Time to move back to producing multiple grains like we used to do in the past and reduce this rice+wheat monoculture - who knows, it would have a +ve impact on water resources too, not to mention people's health.

I didn't even know that MSP procurement itself was so distorting and favouring one or two states - and those states' farmers protesting for that privilege to continue at the expense of their own brethren elsewhere (since MSP pushes down open market rates) feels even more grating and entitled. So, sorry, I have little sympathy for these protestors - why should my tax money go toward subsidizing the lifestyle of a small set of these farmers? I don't mind subsidizing agriculture for food security as long as it benefits the entire farming community, not this selective targeting.

Can someone in the know share some data on how much of the rice+wheat (to name two staples) we end up consuming via various sources every year? Also, how much of it is procured by FCI at MSP?

m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 400
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby m_saini » 03 Dec 2020 07:44

arshyam wrote:Can someone in the know share some data on how much of the rice+wheat (to name two staples) we end up consuming via various sources every year? Also, how much of it is procured by FCI at MSP?


Not in the know but here's what the FCI website says

Procurement Data for Current Marketing Season

Minimum Support Price of Paddy, Wheat and Coarsegrain

Edit: What's really interesting is that they procured 129.42 LMTs of wheat from MP during 2020-21 compared to 127.14 LMTs from Punjab. You'd think MP farmers would also join the protests against this huge injustice done to farmers :mrgreen:

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4057
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hnair » 03 Dec 2020 08:45

Sumeet wrote:Suraj, Mansingh, M saini and others especially those who are
Please watch this episode by Shekhar Gupta (seem like ghost of some BRFite has entered in him while he was speaking this Video)



:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

So if Canada gets issued canadian visa by Coupta, will that count as a travel document for an entire country?

True-Doo is certainly doing the impossible, make other liberals around the world from Macron onwards agree with the nationalists' ideas. What a cheap political-ho this fellow is, by claiming to be a liberal and then climbing inside the pants of the worst extremists in his own country.

Now that all the foundational agreements have been signed with khan, I would say throw out that teeny "Just-in" MAD from the P8!s and replace them with the diesel fume sniffer option for diesel subs, which are pretty much the only ones that will lurk around in shallower waters. Because you cant trust that Bigfoot he calls his defense minister to not sell it to the pakis.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 12:30

this instigated mob rampage is what should concern us as tax payers as also responsible citizens who always end up on the receiving end of protests by special interest groups because our normal lives are forcibly disrupted and our fundamental rights are so callously trampled upon every time.

those in three of the 5 pillars of our democracy, whose sworn duty it is to protect, inform and defend the citizenry and uphold their constitutional rights are nowhere to be found as they seem to be busy pandering to their political masters or even worse, covering their asses.



What Farmers Have Learnt From The Anti-CAA Protests: Blackmail Using Street Power Can Work



What Farmers Have Learnt From The Anti-CAA Protests: Blackmail Using Street Power Can Work


R Jagannathan
Dec 3, 2020

What Farmers Have Learnt From The Anti-CAA Protests: Blackmail Using Street Power Can Work



Image
Farmers protesting against new farm laws. (Representative image)


Snapshot
Mob protests and street violence will become the norm unless the police-investigative-judicial system is capable of handling them without excess violence.


Right now, the state lies prostrate while the mobs have the power to blackmail governments.

The disconnect between Dalal Street and Main Street could not be starker. The stock markets are celebrating the likely return of growth from this quarter onwards even as Delhi is battling both Covid-19 and thousands of farmers camped on its borders, where a deliberate effort is being made to scuttle the most important agricultural reforms undertaken by the Indian state ever.

If the Street wins this battle, Dalal Street will have nothing to celebrate. Every reform can be rolled back through mob action.

This is not to deny that farmers may have genuine concerns over what will happen to MSPs (minimum support prices) once the mandi system is forced to compete with large contract buyers of farm produce. Commonsense tells us that this competition among buyers can only benefit sellers, once the latter get organised. But the agitating farmers have been led up the garden path both by political parties and vested interests. If even half the efforts put into organising protests had been expended in organising farmers into strong producers’ outfits which can bargain on equal terms with contract buyers, MSPs would not even be needed.

But no. The protests are about using farmers’ anxieties to destabilise an elected government and its reforms agenda. The passive-aggressive protest method that was employed to devastating effect during the anti-CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) protests, from Jamia Millia to Shaheen Bagh, is now being used again to blackmail Delhi into kowtowing to the mob and repeal all the reform measures. If the Centre succumbs, this will become the norm in future protests where committed groups or communities will use street power to overawe the government into conceding their demands.

The anti-CAA and farmer protests have exposed the weak nature of the Indian state, where the only way it can combat mob blackmail is the use of excess force (lathi charge, teargas, even rubber bullets), which will then be used to create further protests till the government of the day caves in. What we are seeing is the threat to governance come repeatedly from mobs taking to the streets. If this continues, even the courts will not have the courage to tell what they said to the Shaheen Bagh protesters: protest in designated areas, but not in public places where the rights of ordinary citizens are trampled jupon. Mobocracy will win.


Whatever it does in the farmers’ case, the Narendra Modi government has to think through its future response to street-level blackmail.

It is interesting that the Supreme Court yesterday (2 December) directed the government to install CCTV cameras in all police stations and places where the probe agencies interrogate suspects and arrested people. While this is a good suggestion intended to prevent the use of third degree methods, one wonders why the same level of transparency cannot be brought to the courtrooms and judges’ chambers, where hearings and cases are recorded and can be rechecked for bias or bribery at a later date.


However, that is another story. What the Supreme Court has done is give the government an idea about how it must deal with future street-level blackmail tactics. Since protesters tend to use social media and doctored videos to make the police seem like initiators and perpetrators of violence – which could certainly be true in some cases – there is an equal need for policemen trying to prevent mobs from doing damage to present their own videos of what actually happened. It is not only police stations that should be provided CCTVs, but policemen and officers dealing with mob violence during protests must wear body cameras so that they too have a record of what really happened. In some US cities, bodycams are the norm for policemen; it is time India did the same.

Having cameras in police stations and on their person will ensure that both policemen and protesters behave properly. Both of them should know that what they say or do can be recorded and brought up as proof to explain why the police had to use force in a certain situation. Equally, protesters can question whether the police were too heavyhanded while dealing with relatively peaceful people.

Shaheen Bagh should have been cleared using body cams where patient policewomen physically moved the protesters out of public spaces and into designated areas where the dadis could not inconvenience the public. While it may be legitimate to disrupt some public spaces in order to draw attention to problems, a prolonged refusal to move to designated areas can only be seen as mobocracy in action, even if it relatively free of violence.

Mob protests and street violence will become the norm unless the police-investigative-judicial system is capable of handling them without excess violence. Right now, the state lies prostrate while the mobs have the power to blackmail governments. Police beating up protesters is not democracy; but a police force that can do nothing to prevent mob violence and disruption is no help to democracy either.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 13:21

All the hypocrisy over the Farm Bills 2020 — in one place


All the hypocrisy over the Farm Bills 2020 — in one place

The astonishing part about these protests is not the hypocrisy, but the extensive documentary trail that these people left. There is so much evidence that one could compile a book on this, but let us run through the highlights quickly.

3 December, 2020
Abhishek Banerjee


Image
The staggering hypocrisy surrounding Punjab farmers' protests against the new farm laws (image courtesy: thequint.com)


What did the 2020 Farm Bills of the Modi government do? The Act merely gave farmers the option to trade freely outside of APMCs, anywhere within India. The other thing it did was to abolish the Essential Commodities Act of 1955.

Since then, thousands of farmers from Punjab have been agitating against the bill. And now they have brought their agitation to Delhi, along with a handful of farmers from Haryana with similar demands. So called ‘liberal’ media in Delhi, still chafing from an unfavorable outcome in Bihar, has lapped up the movement at their doorstep. They have branded it a general “farmers protest,” implying that the protesters somehow represent people from all across India.

For days now, we have been told that farmers from the rest of India want to join. We just haven’t seen any. This has been further explained by the conspiracy theory that farmers are being blocked by the police from entering Delhi. Half of India depends on farming, but apparently blocking a couple of roads have held off an agitation comprising around 60 crore people.

And now, every frustrated duck with a quack who is against Modi wants to be seen with the “farmers protest.” The Congress. The AAP, which is active in Punjab. The Dadis of Shaheen Bagh. Everyone. Even the Canadian Prime Minister who remembers how PM Modi ignored him for a whole week in India.

The astonishing part about these protests is not the hypocrisy, but the extensive documentary trail that these people left. There is so much evidence that one could compile a book on this, but let us run through the highlights quickly.

(1) Congress manifesto for 2019 promised exactly these reforms

Here it is, in writing. Quite literally, the exact same promise.

Congress manifesto
And as for the Essential Commodities Act, the Congress had this to say.

Congress manifesto
Again, the language could not be clearer. The Congress went so far as to dismiss the Essential Commodities Act of 1955 as belonging to the “age of controls.” Imagine the situation when the Congress manifesto appears to take a potshot at Nehru.

It doesn’t end here. There is also an extensive trail of evidence of Dr. Manmohan Singh advocating for states to amend the APMC act and give more freedom to the farmer (see here in 2012 and here in 2009). But in typical UPA fashion, he didn’t actually get anything done. And now when the Modi government has implemented their own manifesto item, the Congress opportunistically has a problem with it.

Additionally, even though the latest Farm bills say nothing about Minimum Support Price (MSP) and do not alter the existing MSP regime in any way, the matter of MSP has been dragged into these protests. So perhaps it makes sense to mention here what Dr. Raghuram Rajan had to say on MSP back in 2014, when he was RBI governor.


Raghuram Rajan on MSP
And for good measure, the article also says:

“He also said the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Act, which governs marketing of agriculture produce, needs to be amended.“

MSP hikes cause inflation, eh? Bear in mind that Dr. Rajan also advised the Congress on key economic promises in their 2019 manifesto. Perhaps Dr. Rajan would like to do the nation a favor by explaining to the protesting farmers from Punjab exactly what is wrong with MSP hikes.


(2) Canadian government had opposed MSP for Indian farmers, PM-Kisan and even PM Fasal Bima Yojana

One of the unique features of this so called farmers protest is the involvement of a foreign government. The Canadian Prime Minister has tried to intervene in our domestic matter. And quite shockingly, his intervention has been welcomed by a large section of the ‘liberal’ commentariat in India.

First of all, the Canadian government has no standing to comment in a purely domestic matter of India. There has to be absolute clarity on that. But the intervention looks even more sinister when you realize that the Canadian government has essentially been at war with the farmers of India. From 2015 to 2019, Canada has vocally questioned India’s farm subsidies and repeatedly accused India of violating World Trade Organization (WTO) rules by means of MSP.

It gets even worse:

“Canada sought details of the PM-KISAN programme under which income support of Rs 6,000 per year is provided to small and marginal farmer families. … Canada also expressed doubt over the eligibility of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, a crop insurance scheme, as a permitted subsidy under WTO.“

Just think about the cruelty of that. Canada is a rich and highly developed country, with a per capita GDP of well over $40,000 USD. And yet Canada wanted to oppose a cash transfer of just Rs 6000 (roughly $80) a year to small and marginal farmers of India. Shame!

And today, with a straight face, the Canadian government tries to be the spokesperson for Indian farmers. This is like the wolf trying to speak for the lambs. Is Canada trying to stoke civil war in India by taking advantage of the particular demography of the protesting farmers who happen to be from Punjab and therefore mostly Sikh? And why is Canada getting support from Indian intellectuals? What do these intellectuals stand to gain from supporting a foreign government that is at war with Indian farmers? What will these intellectuals gain from civil war in India?


(3) CPI/CPI(M) did not even implement APMCs in Kerala

If you thought only the Congress and the Canadian government were being hypocritical, we haven’t even come to the so called farmers unions who are protesting. In media coverage of these protests, you must have come across numerous images of farmers holding the dreaded hammer and sickle flag. Indeed, the Left Parties came together to make a joint statement in support of the protesters.

Left parties being their hypocritical best
All state units? With the Communist Parties having their maximum strength in Kerala, I suppose we will see some large protests in Kerala. But you would be aghast to know the following:

“Being a state that has not implemented the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC), farmers in Kerala feel that the opening up of trade with new farm laws might not make much impact in the existing trade systems in Kerala“

So there are no APMCs in Communist ruled Kerala at all! And yet, Communist parties are fear mongering that the new farm bills will lead to destruction of the APMCs and hurt the farmer! Well, it looks like irony just succumbed to the ‘Kerala model.’


(4) Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) demanded freedom from APMCs only in 2019

If you didn’t think it could get much worse, get a load of this.

What Bharatiya Kisan Union said on farm laws earlier

This is not a dream. You are not hallucinating. The BKU demanded in writing that the Indian farmer be liberated from the tyranny of APMCs. This is from the official Twitter account of Bharatiya Kisan Union, active since November 2015.

BKU Twitter account
You can go and check right now. The handle is very active at this moment, regularly posting updates on how they are leading the farmers protests. The industrial scale hypocrisy will blow your mind.

That’s all the hypocrisy I could find with a simple internet search and about an hour of spare time. I am sure there is much more out there.

Last but not the least, one thing needs to be said. While this article remains open for scrutiny, debate and criticism, the reader must be alert to a new kind of fraud that has taken off. These are left wing journalists who call themselves “fact checkers.” The intention is to dismiss anything critical of them with a banner headline that says “fake news.”

If you see such a headline, dig further. Remember, they are counting on you to read just the headline and skip over the rest. A genuine reason to label this article as “fake news” would be to show that I have altered the content of news sources, screenshots, etc presented herein. They won’t find that and they know it. What they might do instead is use weasel-words like “misleading” or “manipulated” below a banner headline calling it fake news.

What is “misleading”? And what is “manipulated”? Beware of some standard red flags (pun intended). No two policy proposals can be the same, word for word. In fact, no person can say the same thing twice in exactly the same words. Unless they can show that policy proposals from Congress, CPIM, the BKU and their new friend Canada were substantially different, don’t believe their labels. That is called debate, not fact-checking. Debate is most welcome, a sinister attempt to silence an opponent with a label is NOT.

Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8090
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 03 Dec 2020 13:26

chetak wrote:What Farmers Have Learnt From The Anti-CAA Protests: Blackmail Using Street Power Can Work

We should also note that in both cases; the central government has NOT budged. The CAA still remains and only the rules for the Act is pending. The farmer related laws have also not been rescinded. But yet, what is happening is that "Siege of Delhi" is now becoming a trend, and there seems to be an SOP/Rule book to get such operations going on. As I write this raids are happening in Kerala on the residence & office of Popular Front of India (PFI) leaders. PFI is said to be financiers of all kind of "Siege of Delhi" operations.

Also another observation from my side; The Indian National Congress does not seem to be in control of any of these moves. They have now been reduced to the role of byestanders or moral supporters kind of role. The agitation specialists seems to be another group; with some of the key players being 'professional protestors' (some xyz Bibi for example).

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 03 Dec 2020 15:15

Worries of a Fresh Crop: Why the Spiralling Farmers' Protests Are Making Punjab Politicians Jittery



Worries of a Fresh Crop: Why the Spiralling Farmers' Protests Are Making Punjab Politicians Jittery



The concern is that the longer the impasse remains, the chances of a new alternative emerging grows. And this is something which none of the political parties want.


DECEMBER 03, 2020,
Pallavi Ghosh

After the euphoria now the apprehension. As the farmers' protests don’t show any immediate signs of ending and the protesters have dug their heels in, many political parties are seeking to benefit from the movement.

One thing the farmers have made clear is that while politicians may try to milk the protests, they should stay away from the actual protest spots. And this is what is worrying many political parties, especially the stakeholders in Punjab.

Cut to the Anna Hazare movement, which began in New Delhi in 2011 with a hunger strike in demand for the Jan Lokpal Bill to fight corruption. The government in power and the ruling Congress were in a pickle. The movement captured the minds of the people, especially the middle class, and many youth joined in. The more the Congress struggled to cope with it, the more powerful the movement began. And here too politicians from mainstream parties were largely kept away.

While the Congress, being in power, tried to negotiate, others like the BJP could only look from a distance but with smiles on their faces. The decimation of the Congress and the UPA in the 2014 parliamentary polls was largely due to the Anna movement and the narrative it built of the UPA being corrupt and anti-people.


The similarity with the present farmers' movement, however, ends here. Firstly, it's largely limited to north India and that too Punjab and Haryana. The Anna movement, while based in Delhi, had captured the space in many other parts of the country. There were similar movements in many southern and western regions. So far, apart from a few small groups, not many are supporting the farmers. But since the protests are close to Delhi, it has captured the mind of the media and also the Centre.

The other important factor is that till now the middle class hasn’t been drawn by the farmers' movement and protests. A senior MP from Punjab says, "It's early days yet, but so far the middle class has not been pulled into this. The day they are, the politicians would have a reason to be worried even more."

But as far as politicians, especially Captain Amarinder Singh, is concerned, they have a reason to be apprehensive. The Akalis are still having to grapple with the perception of being a part of the NDA cabinet when the farm bills were passed. Their exit from the government is seen as having come a little bit too late. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), many of whose leaders like Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia were part of the India Against Corruption movement of Anna Hazare, may be waiting to see what turn the protests take. If the movement throws up an alternate leadership, then the party's dream of capturing Punjab and Haryana may become more distant. And AAP knows very well what a movement, which is initially apolitical and with absence of political backing, may lead to.

Now for Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh. His worries are beyond just the movement. He has tried to adopt a middle path. While attacking Haryana chief minister ML Khattar for not doing enough for the farmers, Captain has been at the forefront to fight for the farmers. But the fact remains that Punjab is a border state and there is a worry that if things go out of control it could mean serious security issues for the vulnerable region.

The CM though is aware that as of now the Akalis and AAP to a certain extent are not on a strong footing on this issue. And this is fertile ground for the emergence of a new leader or movement like in 2011. Which is why Captain is also goading some farmer unions to speak to the central government to break the ice.

The worry is that the longer the impasse remains, the chances of a new alternative emerging grows. And this is something which none of the political parties want. So the more protracted the protests become, the chances of the middle class becoming embroiled and also it spreading to other states become significant. Not many Punjab politicians would want to see that materialise.


Another worry is a déjà vu moment for the Congress from 2005 when the 'kisaan-paani' issue had hit the party. The present protests are largely of Jat Sikhs and people from rural Punjab. With Hindus and urban areas still staying away from the farmer protests, the Congress and Captain are worried about polarisation which could work for the BJP with the urban and Hindu votes going to the saffron party in the 2022 assembly polls.

So, for now, the protests are being watched nervously by the Punjab government and politicians.

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1784
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Ambar » 03 Dec 2020 19:11

chetak wrote:and some times, WhatsApp has intelligent things to say that comes as forwards

the so called "farmers" are autocratically endeavoring to interfere with our democracy by seeking the overturning of parliament passed legislations. here be dragons.

that's the route to anarchy, chaotic disorder and the most fundamental breakdown of the rule of law.

what happens if the same BIF seeks to overturn the Ram temple judgement or demand the reimposition of art 370 & 35A

and what if, one day soon, a nationwide BIF funded mob uprising demands and forces the handing over of cashmere to the pakis or violently insists that TN be allowed to secede from the union



If laws were made on streets.

There would be no abolition of Article 370 and Article 35A
There would no removal of Triple Talaq
There would never be any Ram Mandir
There would be No GST.
There would be no development.
There would be no Rule of Law.


When the Ram Mandir construction started with a very aggressive deadline i was thinking why the hurry as this should be the grandest temple built in India in over 6+ centuries. Then i realized that the window of opportunity is very short because if there's an empty land, then there's no guarantee that Congress won't put a stay on the construction when they are in power. As for Art 370/Art 35A , i am afraid some similar manufactured drama will played on the streets of Delhi by the BIF, and INC will only be too happy to bring it back if and when they are in power.

I cannot begin to imagine the repercussions had NDA lost Bihar and the bypolls. Haryana govt would have collapsed, and given the constant infighting in BJP Karnataka, probably the Karnataka govt too would have collapsed or at the least CM Yeddiyurappa would have lost his chair. Luckily the win in Bihar and other places has given the center the confidence to not blink but stand firm against the blackmailers. Modi was absolutely right when he said "Anti-CAA protests were an experiment", now that the BIF nexus tasted some level of success with shaheenbagh terrorism, they will repeat it over and over again.

In today's meeting with the agitating "farmers" the government apparently agreed to add MSP to the new farm laws albeit with some conditions but all 35 "Farmers Union" leaders were adamant that the government needs to take back all 3 farm amendment acts. It is clear that this is not about MSP or even the farm bill, but it is purely political to use farmers agitation to re-create a nationwide shaheenbagh atmosphere. After this round of drama is over, i suspect the next shaheenbagh will be for women's rights using some rape case, they'll continue to keep the government on backfoot as several states go to election starting 2021 into the general elections in 2024.

Neela
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3688
Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Neela » 03 Dec 2020 20:02

Sachin wrote:
chetak wrote:What Farmers Have Learnt From The Anti-CAA Protests: Blackmail Using Street Power Can Work

We should also note that in both cases; the central government has NOT budged. The CAA still remains and only the rules for the Act is pending. The farmer related laws have also not been rescinded. But yet, what is happening is that "Siege of Delhi" is now becoming a trend, and there seems to be an SOP/Rule book to get such operations going on. As I write this raids are happening in Kerala on the residence & office of Popular Front of India (PFI) leaders. PFI is said to be financiers of all kind of "Siege of Delhi" operations.

Also another observation from my side; The Indian National Congress does not seem to be in control of any of these moves. They have now been reduced to the role of byestanders or moral supporters kind of role. The agitation specialists seems to be another group; with some of the key players being 'professional protestors' (some xyz Bibi for example).


I have nothing to back myself up with below claim.
Both Pappu and Mafia Queen moving to Goa citing pollution just before protests started is very very fishy.

SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5435
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SBajwa » 04 Dec 2020 00:03

Farmers get Rs 2000 for 100 kg of wheat.
Retailers get Rs 40 for per kg of wheat flour (grinding, packaging, etc).

So retailers get almost same price for Grinding and packing which farmers get.

Problem is that between Farmer and Retailers we have way too many middlemen who do not add any value to the product and make money.

Aarthiyas/middlemen should be forced to pay for transportation or packing or harvesting or insurance for the crops.
They need to add some value to the product

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 00:58

Neela wrote:
Sachin wrote:We should also note that in both cases; the central government has NOT budged. The CAA still remains and only the rules for the Act is pending. The farmer related laws have also not been rescinded. But yet, what is happening is that "Siege of Delhi" is now becoming a trend, and there seems to be an SOP/Rule book to get such operations going on. As I write this raids are happening in Kerala on the residence & office of Popular Front of India (PFI) leaders. PFI is said to be financiers of all kind of "Siege of Delhi" operations.

Also another observation from my side; The Indian National Congress does not seem to be in control of any of these moves. They have now been reduced to the role of byestanders or moral supporters kind of role. The agitation specialists seems to be another group; with some of the key players being 'professional protestors' (some xyz Bibi for example).


I have nothing to back myself up with below claim.
Both Pappu and Mafia Queen moving to Goa citing pollution just before protests started is very very fishy.


the thought had crossed my mind too.

additionally, they have no face to show to their "supporters" following unprecented spectacle of the congi dissenters targeting the mafia famiglia directly and by implication laying all the failures of ommission and commission at their doorstep.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 01:52

Farmers in #Punjab, as this chart shows, are the wealthiest farmers in India with receipts 600% higher than the receipts of the average Indian farmer


Image

via @MinhazMerchant

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 02:06

these "leaders" are playing childish games


They will not accept food or tea offered by the government but want free electricity, extensive subsidies and tax exemptions on agricultural incomes.

Such hypocrisy - if you don't want their food or tea then please also stop accepting the free electricity!


via@karanbhasin95




ANI@ANI · 10h

#WATCH | Delhi: Farmer leaders have food during the lunch break at Vigyan Bhawan where the talk with the government is underway. A farmer leader says, "We are not accepting food or tea offered by the government. We have brought our own food".

ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 250
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 02:19

chetak wrote:Farmers in #Punjab, as this chart shows, are the wealthiest farmers in India with receipts 600% higher than the receipts of the average Indian farmer


Image

via @MinhazMerchant


So let's say you have a loan/mortgage to create an asset. Assume you are required to make an income of at least 1000 per year to be able to keep ahead of payments due. Your asset generates a return of 1200 based on a certain % of it's current value.

One fine day, your asset is re-valued to it's current value/5 by a decree ( to level the field ) though nothing else has fundamentally changed. Your return drops to 240. Will you be happy or sad this happened?

Before comparing with a stock value, remember nothing has changed in the market fundamentally. It's just that you owned Tesla shares and the government decided to use GM, Ford as a benchmark to be fair to ICE auto makers and cut your share value by 1/5 irrespective of how much you bought it for.

I am not trying to ask for a special privilege. The issue is a sudden change in policy frameworks with no time tor comments, no negotiation, no understanding of how each state is affected by a one size fits all solution.

A decent comparison would be GST act. How long did states like Tamil Nadu take to agree to the GST act that was unfair to them( probably still is) and how early did U.P. agree to GST rollout? Why was GST negotiated with every state to address their concerns? Surely the same central spending/taxes paid to central coffer ratio from your diagrams would have been lopsided for Tamil Nadu vs other states.

ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 250
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 02:23

chetak wrote:these "leaders" are playing childish games


They will not accept food or tea offered by the government but want free electricity, extensive subsidies and tax exemptions on agricultural incomes.

Such hypocrisy - if you don't want their food or tea then please also stop accepting the free electricity!


via@karanbhasin95




ANI@ANI · 10h

#WATCH | Delhi: Farmer leaders have food during the lunch break at Vigyan Bhawan where the talk with the government is underway. A farmer leader says, "We are not accepting food or tea offered by the government. We have brought our own food".


Not sure how true it is. But since you quoted twitter, I too will post. There was a round of shadow boxing in the first meeting a few days ago. In that meeting farmers were offered tea only. This message was interpreted as <you know what >. I wouldn't get too worked up on the mind games.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/farmer-leaders-call-narendra-tomar-for-jalebi-and-pakoda-along-with-tea/689194

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13906
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 04 Dec 2020 02:50

ManSingh wrote:A decent comparison would be GST act. How long did states like Tamil Nadu take to agree to the GST act that was unfair to them( probably still is) and how early did U.P. agree to GST rollout? Why was GST negotiated with every state to address their concerns? Surely the same central spending/taxes paid to central coffer ratio from your diagrams would have been lopsided for Tamil Nadu vs other states.

This entire argument about needing time to negotiate or comment is fallacious.

You cannot compare MSP with anything that is a statutory legal act, which includes the GST. The MSP is not and has never ever been a law.

Neither the MSP nor even 'procurement' as a mechanism is described anywhere in any farm bill. The farm bills themselves came out of proposals by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture. They went through the standard procedures on public readings of bills.

This thread has a great breakdown of how procurement costs of wheat have strained FCI to the point of crisis, all funded by the Indian taxpayer:
https://twitter.com/anuragsingh_as/stat ... 6780926976

Skanda
BRFite
Posts: 315
Joined: 18 Sep 2007 02:19

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Skanda » 04 Dec 2020 03:15

ManSingh wrote:Not sure how true it is. But since you quoted twitter, I too will post. There was a round of shadow boxing in the first meeting a few days ago. In that meeting farmers were offered tea only. This message was interpreted as <you know what >. I wouldn't get too worked up on the mind games.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/farmer-leaders-call-narendra-tomar-for-jalebi-and-pakoda-along-with-tea/689194


Its getting a little childish at this point. We should do away with this business of offering Tea/Snacks/Lunch/Dinner etc etc. They are worried about their livelihood, correct?

ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 250
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 03:36

Suraj wrote:This entire argument about needing time to negotiate or comment is fallacious.

You cannot compare MSP with anything that is a statutory legal act, which includes the GST. The MSP is not and has never ever been a law.

Neither the MSP nor even 'procurement' as a mechanism is described anywhere in any farm bill. The farm bills themselves came out of proposals by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture. They went through the standard procedures on public readings of bills.

This thread has a great breakdown of how procurement costs of wheat have strained FCI to the point of crisis, all funded by the Indian taxpayer:
https://twitter.com/anuragsingh_as/stat ... 6780926976


Great thread, thanks for sharing. It is extremely tiring to read the same BIF, shaheen bagh drivel every alternate post. I am still trying to figure a connection to JNU, never met anyone in my life.

The thread you posted is great on economic theory and provides a great top-down view. I get it. But consider that the culture of excess ( prices to support low land holdings ) have been encouraged over decades. The amount of agricultural implements owned by farmers in Punjab/Haryana is mind-boggling. Land prices are inflated to unsustainable levels which I have pointed out earlier. There is also the huge amount of leveraging of formal banking channels based upon the prices of land/capital farm equipment/income potential.

Do you think passing a law which says you will probably be paid market prices in the future is going to make all this go away? Remember we are not dealing with MBA/Masters in Economics folks who understand sustainability, price discovery etc. They have been farmers for decades. Some of the excesses have been well deserved. One of my grand-uncles was a farmer who was allotted lands which was nothing more than hillocks and shallow ponds post partition. With nothing in hand, no mechanized equipment, no road access and in some cases no farm animals either, the land was made productive. Tilled by hand, several acres day in and out. It took decades to turn a profit/get rid of grinding poverty.

Later on seeing the productivity of such farmers and endemic shortage of food in the country, the excesses were actively encouraged. This includes hybrid seed varieties, over exploitation of water resources etc that your thread has mentioned. No alternate activity was encouraged/allowed.

So now if food security has been achieved and nation has an excess which it does not know what to do with, it is not simply fair to make an abrupt cut to what got us here. What is expected of farmers? Will banks turn a blind eye now to what is owed to them or will agricultural land prices or cost of labour go down in affected states ( Punjab/Haryana )?

Other points:
- Farm bills came out of parliamentary committee on agriculture. What is the break-up of this committee? Shouldn't in a democracy the leadership be a representation of the people they create laws for? Is there any farmer rep. affected by these laws who is present on this committee or is it simply an echo chamber?
- MSP has never been a law - true, It was a cherry-picked handout item from the Swaminathan report. The committee was instituted to handle farm distress by the government for an annual plan. No government NDA or UPA had the courage to be be able to pass the recommendations in parliament. I must admit Modi ji has been the most vocal in support though. So your argument that MSP is a fallacious argument is not necessary a tenable one. MSP is not a political dole but a recommendation by a government constituted panel.
https://www.prsindia.org/report-summaries/swaminathan-report-national-commission-farmers
{edited/added later) - FCI is at a breaking point - Understood that sustainable practices are needed. However the current approach will not help. FCI vs banks insolvency, take your pick. Also it will lead to great social distress too avoiding which hopefully is a government priority too. I am not attempting a blackmail logic though it appears that way.

m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 400
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby m_saini » 04 Dec 2020 03:56

ManSingh wrote:[

So now if food security has been achieved and nation has an excess which it does not know what to do with, it is not simply fair to make an abrupt cut to what got us here. What is expected of farmers? Will banks turn a blind eye now to what is owed to them or will agricultural land prices or cost of labour go down in affected states ( Punjab/Haryana )?


Can agree to the "abrupt cut" part. Farmers have grown accustomed to the largesse(which was well deserved) and it would be very hard for them to adjust to market prices suddenly.

I'm sure if GoI were to abolish reservation tomorrow, people would react the same way. Hopefully a transition period can be worked out. But farmers too have to understand that food security has been achieved and the taxpayer simply cannot afford to dole out free electricity and still buy wheat at Rs400-500 above the market rate much longer.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9111
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Mort Walker » 04 Dec 2020 03:56

So what MSP is acceptable to the farmers who are protesting? Is anything less than 1.5 times acceptable? What about the Electricity Amendment Bill of 2020 is not acceptable to farmers and why should farmers be treated differently from manufacturing industries regarding electricity pricing?

It seems to me this protesting is being done within 50 Km of NCR. I don’t see much objection from farmers in states that produce as much or more wheat and rice. MP and Chattishgargh produce a lot of wheat and rice.

Kaivalya
BRFite
Posts: 193
Joined: 19 Oct 2018 21:51

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 04 Dec 2020 03:58

^^^

The protest during shaheenbagh , was not the content of the CAA but what a slippery slope of anti muslim nature it could be in the future ( Eeevil yindoos against peacefuls)

The funny thing now is "Farmer's" agitation that the shaheenbagh dadi wants to join is not the content of the law but what this slippery slope will lead to in the future. ( Eeevil yindoos against suffering farmers)

Some day all these protesting people have to read about crying wolf panchatantra stories or maybe the liberal secular aesop's fables

One has to feel bad for Delhi residents suffering due to traffic snarls but then they elected AAP , they will have to throw him out as he plays his politics/serving biryani in the sidelines and jumps to whichever way the wind blows.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 04:12

Suraj wrote:
ManSingh wrote:A decent comparison would be GST act. How long did states like Tamil Nadu take to agree to the GST act that was unfair to them( probably still is) and how early did U.P. agree to GST rollout? Why was GST negotiated with every state to address their concerns? Surely the same central spending/taxes paid to central coffer ratio from your diagrams would have been lopsided for Tamil Nadu vs other states.

This entire argument about needing time to negotiate or comment is fallacious.

You cannot compare MSP with anything that is a statutory legal act, which includes the GST. The MSP is not and has never ever been a law.

Neither the MSP nor even 'procurement' as a mechanism is described anywhere in any farm bill. The farm bills themselves came out of proposals by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture. They went through the standard procedures on public readings of bills.

This thread has a great breakdown of how procurement costs of wheat have strained FCI to the point of crisis, all funded by the Indian taxpayer:
https://twitter.com/anuragsingh_as/stat ... 6780926976


discussions on this matter have been ongoing for 2-3 decades.

just like in the case of Art 370, no one ever thought that someone would bell the cat.

not only has the cat been belled, it has also been sliced and diced, skinned, cooked and booked and that's got to hurt.

before this fiasco, very few in India had even heard of the word arhtiyas.

this hits at the congis and NCP and their house nigger arhtiyas in the most fundamental way and cuts off their deep rooted patronage system at the very knees.

for these two parties and their politically connected army of arhtiyas or commission agents, it is an existential issue.

if amarinder cries "security issues" and "economic destabilization of punjab", as he is doing today, president's rule will become a viable reality/option and will follow fairly swiftly.

the congis themselves are quite wary of amarinder and he will be replaced by a suitably pliant proxy sooner than later by the mafia famiglia.

punjab has many large politically connected farmer families with farming as well as middleman/arhtiyas interests and these guys rule all the punjab mandis with an iron hand.

Anyway, however which way one may slice it, punjab farmers have no right at all to monopolize the MSP procurement process. There are other states producing much better quality and a larger quantity of rice and wheat crop than punjab's farmers do and these farmers do not do stubble burning to try to coerce and blackmail the center for more subsidises and nor do the farmers in other states get the lavish subsidies that are given so easily to the farmer in punjab.

stubble is what is left in the ground after the combine harvester is done with the harvesting. It is 40 cms in length. This is what is being wantonly burnt so that the resultant clamor forces the center to pay to the farmer remove it.

Earlier bulls were used to plough this into the ground and also to turn the soil for the next crop.

now all those poor bulls have met their 72s and the rich punjab farmer wants more money to handle the stubble. He wants the already screwed taxpayer to foot his bills as usual.

water, electricity and fertilizer equate to national resources and must be equitably shared and fairly distributed as also the MSP procurement setup should be divided to benefit farmers in all other states too.

what the protesting farmers are effectively saying is that: "we, the farmers of punjab" are more equal than others and insist on that privilege of primacy being maintained for ever by law that we demand be enacted in our favor only. baki, bhad me jaye.

Farm Reforms are the SAME BIG BANG REFORMS that were on table for over 25 years. The farm laws enacted are just and fair to all farmers.

Also, it was in the manifesto of the two main national parties so enough discussions have already taken place with special interest groups including farmers groups/unions.

best for the mandi parasite politicos and their conjoined arhtiyas symbiotic ecosystem to bite the bullet and move on.

After all, they have all had a damn good run while it lasted.
Last edited by chetak on 04 Dec 2020 04:38, edited 1 time in total.

dsreedhar
BRFite
Posts: 321
Joined: 10 Jan 2011 06:57

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby dsreedhar » 04 Dec 2020 04:37

I followed the conversation on this thread on farm bill issue. Some i get it and some i do not by general reading.
I looked at the agricultural employment % of total figures in https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS.
India - 41%, China - 25, Mexico - 12, Brazil - 9, US - 1.
So India's agriculture employment is way higher than other comparable countries and contributes only 15% to GDP. Besides that there is no tax on agriculture income, have govt subsidies, free electricity, free water and frequent loan waivers, the production inefficiencies and resulting high prices. Somebody has to pay for this and most likely borne by other working middle class citizens. This is inefficient and un-sustainable in long run, if the country has to grow big economically for a better living of its whole population.
Farming has to be seen like a for-profit small business with risks. But in the current model there is no risk with all the subsidies, guarantees and bailouts. Why would anyone want to leave it?

From ManSingh's last post i get the concerns that farmers are not ready/prepared mentally and financially. It may need to be slowly weaned away rather than sudden big changes. One thing is generate more industrial jobs with better pay and security. Slowly transfer some of the risk on to the farmers. Maybe the govt separate big/large farmers from small/individual farmers and start cutdown the subsidies etc to the big farmers initially. Is there anything which the govt distinguishes big farmers from small ones?

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 24052
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 04:42

let the farmers start to pay income tax like the rest of us ornery unfortunates along with paying their hitherto free utility bills :mrgreen:


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests