Well the majority of the people who polled de-escalation seem to be correct and that is the direction the situation seems headed. Do note that the poll was for a one month timeframe and escalatory attacks may or may not come to fruition. Some points on the poll itself, any poll should have such options that the result is sufficently muddled, to employ 10 options but to see only 7 in play is not good, hopefully the mongerers would provide much practise in the future.
1) 3 had no votes for the longest time: fsa/isis resurgence which i believed would be carried out in conjunction with the arab spring in iran, and the dissatisfaction amongst the masses. I think that the issue here is with the rhythm of the tune and not with the tune itself. The reset to a virtual pre-obama nuclear deal scenario is a slowing of the policy, what would they do if iran states that
we would get nukes any which way, look at saddam and gadaffi
, what would the us do that it has not already been doing, more sanctions?
2) Arab spring in sunni nations missed the sitaution entirely, the lesson of arab spring 1.0 is that it was a slow destabilizing process, to assume that the masses would rebel immediately was wrong on my part.
3) The attack on us positions in afghansitan seemed logical what with the plethora of good, bad taliban, rent boys all, somebody could have created massive mischief. I suppose my own poor understanding of the situation there is to blame.
4) With regards to crudes and refineries:
Iran has a good petrochemical base and it is ever expanding, as it stands, they export these to china, turkey, s.korea, india. Scaling these up, their own refineries output would be utilized effectively, and they would be less dependent on the export of crude as a whole, provided their petchems are not sanctioned. Targetting saudi refineries to destabilize downstream sectors would be effective, but then the us would just plug in the demand. Maybe, that was the plan of the yemeni to take control of "war-oil" crude and sell it on the black market as has always happened, but the iranians stopped that.