ME wars ..XX: a brave new beginning

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 04 Jan 2020 05:33

Now that qaseem solemani is toast, what do you think the immediate future (in a month or so) of the current me fallout will be like?

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 04 Jan 2020 05:34

The smiley was a screw-up, cannot edit now.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Jan 2020 05:36

I voted 7. UBCN Anal-e-sysin West Asia thread.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 04 Jan 2020 06:35

You forgot

11) Al-Bakistan will supply logistics routes for Iran invasion and somehow milk baksheesh for the next 15 years. After 13 of those 15 years, Massa will discover that Iran Supreme leader is living in General Bajwa's farm house but everyone denies knowledge.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Jan 2020 06:55

12) Balochistan becomes indepdendent as Jacobabad Air base shaheed.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 04 Jan 2020 08:11

Anujan wrote:You forgot

11) Al-Bakistan will supply logistics routes for Iran invasion and somehow milk baksheesh for the next 15 years. After 13 of those 15 years, Massa will discover that Iran Supreme leader is living in General Bajwa's farm house but everyone denies knowledge.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 04 Jan 2020 08:39

Anujan wrote:You forgot

11) Al-Bakistan will supply logistics routes for Iran invasion and somehow milk baksheesh for the next 15 years. After 13 of those 15 years, Massa will discover that Iran Supreme leader is living in General Bajwa's farm house but everyone denies knowledge.

I know this is funny and all, but the sad truth is that it is quite realistic. When it comes to Packeestan, the tube-lights in Duplee City are ignorant as hell.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 04 Jan 2020 10:13

7. IB4TL?

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 04 Jan 2020 18:56

Election year posturing, #7 wins. Eesrael probably wanted its aijent in safed ghar to do one favor just in case the outcome of election goes the other way. Not that it would. Regardless of whether eye-ran does something or fake reichstag is pulled on them, definitely expect some news retaliation, may be a straight of hormuz incident before election debates...

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 04 Jan 2020 19:26

Pardon out of place in this thread
When will we replicate this:
target 1. Hafeez S
2.Syed S
3.Z lakwi
one or all three ??
I don't want to start WWIII but given the judicial process in Napak

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 04 Jan 2020 19:43

Really surprised that there were not many takers for 1, perfectly fits in with the iranain mo.
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/i ... 9D-and-the

This paper examines two “Tri-Border” areas in Latin America. The first or “Old TBA” is the border zone encompassing Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, commonly referred to as the triple frontier. The “New TBA” zone follows Chilean political scientist and expert on international terrorism Iván Witker’s model, encompassing the borders of Chile, Bolivia and Peru. The criminal demographics and dynamics of the illicit markets and related security concerns are reviewed.

Further revelations uncovered Iranian infiltrator, Hojjat al-Eslam Mohsen Rabbani, the former cultural attaché in Iran’s embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina, as playing a pivotal role in establishing firm roots in the region. He is the alleged architect of the 1994 AMIA attacks and is wanted by Argentinean authorities as well as Interpol. He recruited young men he believed would support his cause and trained them to be students of Islam. Yet, his status in Argentina with an Interpol ‘red notice,’ Rabbani is unable to travel outside of Iran. However, Venezuela provides Rabbani falsified papers to travel to and around the region undetected.

Taken separately, the original TBA is functioning from a dark economy and continual money laundering practices. Argentina, for instance, has experienced declines in Hezbollah activity, but it is still peppered with Rabbani followers. They are continuing to recruit members to be trained as operatives with help from over 40 Islamic organizations that are linked to Rabbani’s network throughout Latin America.[61] These disciples have the pulse of the Islamic communities in Argentina, and maintain an influence in the country, continuing the ‘legacy’ of their mentor. The violence and unrest in Brazil is continuing to escalate. Iran and Hezbollah’s presence in Brazil is attributed to the number of cultural and religious centers that are used for recruiting. Business fronts continue to exist in Paraguay that serves Hezbollah’s financial schemes.

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comm ... y-1.904231

With Hezbollah’s proscription, Asuncion can help reduce the group’s influence. The fight against Hezbollah needs to be global and Latin America, where much of the group’s illicit activities are concentrated, is a good place to start.

Until recently, Latin American governments were unwilling to label Hezbollah a terrorist group. Last month, however, Argentina took the unprecedented step of doing so, noting Hezbollah’s responsibility for terror attacks against an Israeli embassy and a Jewish community centre on Argentinian soil in 1992 and 1994. The designations followed Argentina’s creation of a public registry for terror entities and individuals.

Argentina’s actions clearly influenced Paraguay, its neighbour to the north, whose government previously refused to acknowledge the obvious. In January, Paraguay’s then foreign minister Luis Castiglioni publicly denied that Hezbollah had engaged in illicit finance activities in the country. Interior minister Juan Ernesto Villamayor also downplayed the issue. Even then Supreme Court president Victor Manuel Nunez Rodriguez said he had no evidence Hezbollah was financing terrorism. The Trump administration urged Paraguay to reconsider. Multiple visits by senior officials – including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Paraguay in April and Argentina in July – ultimately persuaded Paraguay that it needed to get tougher on Hezbollah.

Also, the thread is slated to meet its 72 on 19/01 so its not indefinite.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 04 Jan 2020 20:08

Anujan wrote:You forgot

11) Al-Bakistan will supply logistics routes for Iran invasion and somehow milk baksheesh for the next 15 years. After 13 of those 15 years, Massa will discover that Iran Supreme leader is living in General Bajwa's farm house but everyone denies knowledge.

, but seriously

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 04 Jan 2020 20:14

UlanBatori wrote:12) Balochistan becomes indepdendent as Jacobabad Air base shaheed.

Imo, balochistan is kept on a simmer by iran to be used against pakis at a later date when it is 1v1. Shaheeeding an air base in the heart of pakistan at this point may be stretching their resources.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 Jan 2020 21:06

oops. Jio-challeged onlee. As renowned South Asia DrinkTank Experts v believe in retaining our Ak-dummy phreedom by not looking up basic stuff. I thought Jacobabad was near Quetta: it's practically on Gujarat border???

There's a base called "Mary" in afghanistan: named in honor of Angana Chatterji no doubt, the "Mary" in the Eph Bee Eye indictment of Ghulam Nabi Fai.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 04 Jan 2020 23:27

https://www.dailypioneer.com/2020/trend ... ister.html
Here is Lizard advising khan!!!
Yaniki, learn from us: use devious means, practice usury and then poach land no need for war!!
Lizard/Ruski/Eyeranians can hold joint drill.
And we procrastinate/quiver/hesitate for 'Quad' exercise!!
Will Lizrd jump into fray or wait until it is over and pick on the carcass of ME and a weakened Unkil to take over as new 'Khan'
All along have been paper tigers with one war long ago with India and a pasting by battle hardened Viets!!!
'photocopy toys' will only serve to certain extent but do the 'gullible fools' of long march still exists???

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 04 Jan 2020 23:34

Now probably people who couldn't understand all those peace awrds to Modiji from SA/UAE.
Maybe now the will understand that he is a damn good player of 'Game of Thrones'
Possible combinations of conflagration in ME: Uxis group: Trukey/Malay/Eyeranian/Suri and the Anti SA with Ruski-Chini over r covert support against the allied: khan/Nato/Anzac/Red Sun +/- Dharmic folks
The only 'Kabab me Haddi' is the Napaks which group will they join!!!

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 05 Jan 2020 01:23

A.)
i.) iran will attack USA embassies and army green zones

ii.) Assassinate some diplomats

B.) Trump will retaliate by attacking through AIRSTRIKES & MISSILE STRIKES on their nuclear reactors, army bases, oil wells & myriad expensive assets BUT NO BOOTS ON GROUND.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 05 Jan 2020 02:36

Cheers

Tuan · Post by **Tuan** » 05 Jan 2020 08:38

This video made more sense to me.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2020 22:50

Voted 7 as Iran has no real options.
They never should have sent Solemaini to Baghdad if he was that important.
US had put the IRGC (Khomeini's SS) on terrorist list in April 2019.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 07 Jan 2020 23:20

Solemaini was just a pawn who got bumped off. No one in ME is going to lose his $hit over some expandable guy. Iran is in no position to declare war against US allies in ME while US has bitch slapped Iran and now will sit back till next move is made on the geopolitical chess board.

The only itchy problem, Any act of violence or destruction against KSA/Israel/USA in ME will have to be tied to Eyeraan irrespective of who pulls it off.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2020 23:25

Off course I could be totally wrong.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2020 23:27

Vikas, Did you see Putin visiting Syria and nearby countries.
Its to give visible assurance that no shooting war takes place.
Only Hellfire and IED s.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 07 Jan 2020 23:40

ramana wrote:Vikas, Did you see Putin visiting Syria and nearby countries.
Its to give visible assurance that no shooting war takes place.
Only Hellfire and IED s.

Exactly Sir. I don't think USA has any appetite for a new war. They haven't yet finished battles in Afghanistan and the lesson from A'stan is that boots on the ground are bad options and coffins make bad optics for MIC.
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From Iranian perspective, They don't have many options. Actually they don't have any option, ignoring all the bombastic chants and sloganeering which they have been doing since I started watching news. Finally an event which takes away focus from pathetic economic conditions & waves of protests that have gripped Iran in recent past.
Terrorism would not fetch them any dividends but more Hellfires, drones and maybe few flights of B-52 bomber dumping its load.
As much as Philip ji would like to believe, Bear uncle will not get into shooting game with Bald eagle over Iran. Ayatollahs from all sides will survive this too.
Who knows some Ayatollah maybe collecting his money from alphabet agencies for disclosing coordinates of Solemaini.
Also why Iran doesn't get much sympathy across globe is because of their double faced behavior, playing diabolic games in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon for extending Persian hegemony and still believing that they are inheritors of Persian empire of Cyrus and Darius even though the empire and Persia vanished millennials ago. Now It is just Shia Iran who is trying to challenge Arabs, real owners & harbingers of Islam.
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Deep state may not always be as powerful as we think it is. Sometimes I think that Deep state wanted to breather from perpetual state of wars so they got DT in instead of HRC.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2020 23:55

OK time for me to get on a pulpit.
War as in WWI, II etc is over. No nation can endure such a costly destructive war.
its destructive to manpower, economy and long wars create soldiers with disabilities to be cared for beyond the war.

It will be punitive actions to restore deterrence as Petraeus said and India showed at Balakot.

If you attack our sovereign symbols we will attack you where ever you are.

its sad that Iran was stupid to attack the embassy with proxies in an election year.
What response they expected?

Such folks should not be allowed to have power.

In India's case Pakistan could get away with murder and mayhem because of Congress and Gungadin foreign policy advisers.

No anymore as NaMo has set the standard such that no one can get way wringing hands.

Now to other points.

The thought came to me that Ayatollahs might have gotten rid of their powerful swordsmen as intrigue is a common strand in West Asia.
To test this lets see if Khamenei gets more powerful or weaker?
If the former he did it.
If later he was a fool to allow Solemaini to travel to Baghdad.
So one outcome will be he will be replaced.
As for your Deep State and DT, if he wins then he is in sync.
If not he is out of sync.

This one have to wait till November.

And bear is traveling West Asia to ensure no shooting war.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Jan 2020 00:01

Question is if Solemaini was traveling in Baghdad one time or was he mostly found in Baghdad ?

Let me go out on a limb and say that Khamenei will not be impacted by this one death. He will find someone else to replace his pawn. IN few days, All this will be added to the footnote of history and life will continue with threats and colorful tweets and we will go back to Greta and Musical shows by MBS.

About DT, How can deep state stop him from winning if DT is on the ballot & if they are out of synch. Surely they are no Qamar Bajwa and ghafoora manipulating MNA's [edited]. (PS: Not counting Impeachment).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 00:03

Don't go there.
Why you want to post stupid ideas and get the forum in trouble.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Jan 2020 13:30

ramana wrote:Don't go there.
Why you want to post stupid ideas and get the forum in trouble.

Apologies !

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Jan 2020 14:37

Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east. If Oil prices cross $ 60/ barrel, shale oil from the US starts becoming viable.
At $ 70/barrel (where it is now), marginal shale wells go into production, giving a windfall for US producers. The extra supply of oil ensures that prices do not go beyond the $70-80/range, while also ensuring the Saudi and Russia (the 2 largest exporters) gain from any increases beyond pre Iran crisis levels. If shipments from the Persian gulf are affected, US gains the most (their shale supply taking up the slack), Saudi is mostly unaffected (they have alternate ports) while Iran and Shia Iraq (now US unfriendly) are the most affected. A shale oil boom for the next 6 months, should increase US GDP in oil producing states enough to ensure they vote Republican in Nov.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Jan 2020 15:01

There's an important point about the internal politics of Iran we need to keep in mind (I used to work in Iran years ago as the country manager).

Iran has 2 parallel governments and 2 parallel armed forces. The elected leader and a spiritual leader form the 2 governments. The latter has a council of guardians (fundamentalist clerics) to ensure that any legislation passed by the elected Rouhani govt meets Islamic guidelines. They also vet all candidates standing for elections. The clerics are, by and large, anti reform, anti West and anti India. The hands of the clerics had been strengthened in recent years, by the US refusing to help a pro-reform, pro-West elected Khatami government - which is why a hardliner like Ahmedinajad (Rouhani's predecessor) got elected. The US walking out of the nuclear deal has further weakened Rouhani's hand, since Rouhani fought the clerics to get his way on the deal.

Iran's armed forces comprise the regular army, the revolutionary guard (IRGC) and the `volunteers' (of no military value, except a willingness to die). The army is starved of funding and has obsolete equipment. The revolutionary guard is the best equipped and reports directly to supreme leader Khameni - not to the Army chief or Defence minister. In fact the army many often be unaware of the IRGC may be upto.

With no gain to the economy accruing from the nuclear deal (except for 1 year) the Iranian economy is in the doldrums (the black market dollar rate is more reliable than official GPD figures). Yet, rather than fix the economy, the Iranian unelected leadership chose to strengthen the IRGC to undertake proxy wars. Suleimani's funding increased manifold, at the cost of starving the domestic economy. They have been serious riots in Iran over a collapsing economy, which have been put down harshly by the IRGC - not by the army, which wont turn against its people.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Jan 2020 17:22

^ Deans, Since you have lived in Iran, Do you see any tipping point where Aam Abdul will throw away the yoke of Mullahcracy
or are they stuck with them till eternity ?

What I heard from my connections is that Iranians in private are pretty liberal and are neutral to pro-India. They did not detect any racism among general Iranians towards India.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Jan 2020 17:44

On a not so serious note, What is the protocol on firing missiles into a neighboring country ?
It is not like Iraq had requested Iran to shoot few missiles in its direction but then they haven't protested on missiles being lobbed into their country. Must be first in world diplomacy.

What if few of those missiles end up in civilian area or hit some school by mistake.

Whose responsibility it is if Iranian missiles hit a diplomatic enclave when Iran-Iraq are not at war with each other ?

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 17:59

as per few sources Iran had informed Iraq of the strike at anbar and kurd air base.

#Iran informed #Iraq Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi of its intention to bomb #US military bases in #Anbar and #Kurdistan before the attack. Abdel Mahdi warned the Americans who took their precautions before the attack. ”

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 18:06

A couple of points:
1. Suleimani was seen in public, leading the forces that re-took Iraqi cities from ISIS. News reports. So his being in Iraq was nothing new. WHICH is why there was ABSOLUTELY NO NEED to announce/take credit for the execution. IED-Mubarak was expected any time, and he was clearly not regarded as 'non-expendable' by his superiors. Occupational hazard. Please think about this carefully.
2. Deans, thx. So Suleimani's gang WAS/IS the force to crush internal dissent? I wasn't aware: I thought he was strictly external soldiering.

Given the above it is possible that Suleimani execution was maybe approved by the "moderates" **AND** seen as a way towards new deal with the Great Satan? Worse backstabbing is routine in ME after all. Scott Ritter says that publicized decision to go forward inside the "1-year window" towards nuke weaponization, means that it is open season on the Iranian nuke program. Ignore the part about the TN usage: political soosai in an election year. But a combined YY attack on nuke program may be quite popular world-wide, if it leads to a rollback of sanctions. Moderates may manage to overthrow Mullahdom pointing to disastrous record - though that is the Bolton wacko dream. I don't remember what Saddam did after Ossirak attack by Israel, but here it may be a combined NATO-Israel-Saudi attack with IAEA nod.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 18:19

Soleimani went to Iraq to receive a missive/proposal from Trump/Pompeo conveyed through Iraqi PM adel mehdi to reduce sanctions on Iran.

Iraqi PM was acting as intermediary between US and Iranians for quite some time. Soleimani flew from Damascus and was killed as he left the diplomatic check-in at the Baghdad International Airport.

Iraq had been acting as intermediary between Tehran and Washington with General Soleimani acting as diplomatic representative of Iran.

Alas the diplomatic note was an invitation to an ambush.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Jan 2020 21:37

Vikas wrote:^ Deans, Since you have lived in Iran, Do you see any tipping point where Aam Abdul will throw away the yoke of Mullahcracy
or are they stuck with them till eternity ?

What I heard from my connections is that Iranians in private are pretty liberal and are neutral to pro-India. They did not detect any racism among general Iranians towards India.

Yes Vikasji, Iranians are mostly liberal and like Indians - and western values. They consider themselves more sophisticated and cultured than Arabs. Among the Indians in Iran, the Sikhs are highly regarded - they keep Iran's western automobiles running with jugaad technology. More women work in Iran than anywhere else in the Muslim states of the Middle east. The clerics however are Islamists and not accountable to the people.

If the Iran nuclear deal was implemented, my sense was the people would have slowly overthrown the Mullahs. What strengthens the hands of the clerics is the US pressurising it, or the feeling that being nice with the West is getting them nowhere. (both of which are now happening). The difference between the Shia and Sunnis when it comes to fighting is the willingness of the Shia to achieve matyrdom.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Jan 2020 21:52

UlanBatori wrote:A couple of points:
2. Deans, thx. So Suleimani's gang WAS/IS the force to crush internal dissent? I wasn't aware: I thought he was strictly external soldiering.

Given the above it is possible that Suleimani execution was maybe approved by the "moderates" **AND** seen as a way towards new deal with the Great Satan? Worse backstabbing is routine in ME after all. Scott Ritter says that publicized decision to go forward inside the "1-year window" towards nuke weaponization, means that it is open season on the Iranian nuke program. Ignore the part about the TN usage: political soosai in an election year. But a combined YY attack on nuke program may be quite popular world-wide, if it leads to a rollback of sanctions. Moderates may manage to overthrow Mullahdom pointing to disastrous record - though that is the Bolton wacko dream. I don't remember what Saddam did after Ossirak attack by Israel, but here it may be a combined NATO-Israel-Saudi attack with IAEA nod.

Suleimani handled overseas operations of the Revolutionary guard (IRGC) which was called the Quds force. The bulk of the IRGC is stationed in Iran - (their HQ in Tehran was an American country club before the revolution) and they are the ones who put down serious dissent.
When Suleimani took over the Quds force, it was a few dozen operators who did liaison work or were instructors for Hezbollah. Under him it expanded to a brigade sized force operating in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. It often seems bigger, as Quds instructors are attacked to militant groups.

My sense is that QS had become an law unto himself and untouchable (for the Iranian Govt). He was trying to do too many things - for e,g, finance Hamas and Hezbollah, apart from his other activities. This was putting a lot of strain on the Iranian budget. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a faction in govt who wanted to get rid of him. The economy is a mess. Wages are the lowest I've seen in any country. inflation is high, unemployment and prostitution are rampant

I don't believe there is a one year window to Iranian nuke weaponisation. it was a lot longer than a year before the Iranian nuke deal, which then set that process back several years - even if revived now.
The aam janta would, in my opinion, managed to overthrow the Mullahs, but Bolton and Trump have just made that next to impossible.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 08 Jan 2020 22:47

More sanctions on Iran, appeal to NATO to shore up me; so that is the way it will be, not the naked first of war, but the knife of the international jewry.
Seemed to be the way it was going earlier with Obama's nuke deal, and the stewardship of euros, with the next gen or so iranians assimilating into the world order, then why this course deviation from the deal and the culling of solemani, and now back again?
Also, mentioned oil independence and export in the speech, odd that.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 23:06

Habal, You are partly right. The Iraqi PM said he had forwarded a KSA proposal to Iran and QS was visiting with a reply. It was not a US proposal.
If he was merely a Quds Force guy there was no need to send him to reply to the proposal. US had designated IRGC/Quds as a terrorist org in April. That should be warning to be careful.
Deans, The nuke deal and release of Billion dollars went into the Ayatollah accounts. The people hardly got a trickle down effect.

The scare about Iran nukes is overblown. Its not like slapping together some handy material and boom.
Also think about the eqk near Busher reactor.
What kind of seismic survey was done to site the reactor?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 23:11

ricky_v wrote:More sanctions on Iran, appeal to NATO to shore up me; so that is the way it will be, not the naked first of war, but the knife of the international jewry.
Seemed to be the way it was going earlier with Obama's nuke deal, and the stewardship of euros, with the next gen or so iranians assimilating into the world order, then why this course deviation from the deal and the culling of solemani, and now back again?
Also, mentioned oil independence and export in the speech, odd that.

Doesn't this look like
Pulwama->Balakot->Swift Retort (Brutus Fulemen)->Isolation via cutting of MFN tariffs(no tomatoes etc.)

The course deviation is to remind them they are still a munna.
Now they are under guidance.

Immediate future of ME fallout