5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by ldev »

U.S. Pushing Effort to Develop 5G Alternative to Huawei,
By Bob Davis and Drew FitzGerald
Feb. 4, 2020 10:53 am ET

WASHINGTON—Seeking to blunt the dominance by China’s Huawei Technologies Co., the White House is working with U.S. technology companies to create advanced software for next-generation 5G telecommunications networks.

The plan would build on efforts by some U.S. telecom and technology companies to agree on common engineering standards that would allow 5G software developers to run code atop machines that come from nearly any hardware manufacturer. That would reduce, if not eliminate, reliance on Huawei equipment.

Companies including Microsoft Corp., Dell Inc. and AT&T Inc. are part of the effort, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said.

“The big-picture concept is to have all of the U.S. 5G architecture and infrastructure done by American firms, principally,” Mr. Kudlow said in an interview. “That also could include Nokia and Ericsson because they have big U.S. presences.”
Other potential issues could slow the project. If U.S. and European companies work separately, it could take longer to develop world-beating technology. If they work together, it could raise antitrust concerns.

Mr. Kudlow said he didn’t believe antitrust would be an issue, saying the companies would compete in providing 5G technology. “We’re taking a coordinating role among leading companies,” he said.

He didn’t provide a specific time frame, though others in the government have said they expect to have a system running within 18 months. Earlier, the White House had considered subsidizing a new hardware competitor to Huawei or backing a government-owned 5G network but had rejected both.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Mollick.R »

From Gobar Times.....

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178584.shtml

Huawei vows to produce made-in-Europe 5G after EU 'greenlight'
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/2/5 16:19:39
Photo:Xinhua

Huawei said on Tuesday it is going to set up manufacturing units to produce locally made 5G in Europe, a move that further rebukes security concerns after the EU declined to impose a blanket ban on the Chinese tech-giant in defiance of US pressure.

The news was announced by Abraham Liu, Huawei's Chief Representative to the EU Institutions, in Brussels on Tuesday, as the firm celebrated the 20th year of its operations in Europe.

"We are looking forward to the next 20 years here. That's why we have decided we want to set up manufacturing bases in Europe - so that we can truly have 5G for Europe, made in Europe," said Liu.

"Huawei is more committed to Europe than ever before," Liu added.

"The bases are expected to be for assembly use, and scale will not be big," Xiang Ligang, a telecom industry expert who closely follows Huawei, told the Global Times on Wednesday. Means ? screwdrivergiri ??? to fool Europeans, PR stunt and have some bargaining power to bypass US sanctions ??? :roll: :roll:

In fact, the company does not have to build such manufacturing bases in Europe at all, as it could domestically produce all the 5G-related products and later export to the region, which is even more efficient and cheaper, Xiang said.

However, the plan is anticipated to minimize concerns of many over the so-called security threat and paves the way for its development in the continent, Xiang added.

The comments come days after the European Commission endorsed guidelines that could allow EU member states to decide whether to allow "high risk" telecommunications firms, such as Huawei, in their networks.

Analysts said the decision, which goes against the US' unwarranted and heightened crackdown on the Chinese firm, is "quite hard" to make for EU, but also shows how advanced and irreplaceable Huawei's pieces of equipment are.

In a fresh move to blunt the dominance of Huawei, the White House is working with US technology companies to create advanced software for next-generation 5G telecommunications networks, that could serve as an alternative to Huawei, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

"The US has to accept the fact that it has already lagged behind in this next-generation technology race, and all efforts against Huawei will go in vain ," Xiang said.

Now, as the EU granted Huawei entry in its 5G construction, the US faces a dilemma; either to fall behind in the 5G race or cooperate with Huawei to grab the opportunities and take advantage, Xiang added.

Global Times
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Mollick.R »

X-post from Telecom Folder

ref to above,
Q is now as the GOI has already given in principal approval for Huawei's participation in 5G trials in India and may buckle under future against Chinese pressure as well as domestic telecom service providers
can we also ask should't we also ask and extract our pound of flesh ???

If Huawei set up a considerable manufacturing or good assembly line line here we may get to develop a level-2 component and software services provider base here.
Locally assembled 5G hardware by Chinese Company is better 100% imported 5G gear from same Chinese company
Something is better then nothing.
Isn't it ?
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by chanakyaa »

Keeping it all in the family.

On a serious note, could GoI reach a deal with these companies (w/uncle's blessings) to bring manufacturing to India in exchange for providing capital, lower manufacturing cost, and long term provider of choice contracts? Better than dealing with Huawei.

White House dismisses idea of U.S. buying Nokia, Ericsson to challenge Huawei
...
Barr, a former general counsel at Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N), said on Thursday the United States and its allies should consider taking a “controlling stake” in Finland’s Nokia (NOKIA.HE) and Sweden’s Ericsson (ERICb.ST) to counter Huawei’s dominance in next-generation 5G wireless technology.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow added later on Friday that the United States was working closely with Nokia and Ericsson, saying the companies’ equipment was essential to the buildout of 5G infrastructure.
...
Ericsson pulls out of Mobile World Congress over coronavirus concerns
...
Ericsson, a Swedish telecom company, announced today that it will no longer attend Mobile World Congress, a major mobile electronics conference, over coronavirus concerns. This makes the company the third exhibitor to drop out of the show, following LG and ZTE. The company says it’ll instead focus its efforts on local demos of new technology because it doesn’t want to put its employees in danger of catching the virus.
...
ramana
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by ramana »

IDSA Monograph on 5G technology. Please read it.

https://idsa.in/monograph/the-road-to-5g-monograph-66
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by kumarn »

https://telecom.economictimes.indiatime ... h/74534777

In a global first among mobile phone operators, Reliance Jio has developed its own 5G technology as it looks to reduce dependence on foreign vendors and bring cost-related advantages.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by ramana »

If we read the Reliance news its about replacing 4g VoIP phones with newer 5g based technology. So its on the demand side not the supply side.

So hold the celebrations.
Typical Mota bhai way of claiming credit with a small effort.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by nvishal »

kumarn wrote:https://telecom.economictimes.indiatime ... h/74534777

In a global first among mobile phone operators, Reliance Jio has developed its own 5G technology as it looks to reduce dependence on foreign vendors and bring cost-related advantages.
From your link
“We can give the design, layouts and board support packages to third-party manufacturers to have our gear made.”
Pcb fabrication is done locally in India albeit they are operated by foreign firms and scale is still prototype level. These prototypes are sent to firms in China for mass PCB production.

Many india based mobile phone/LCD TV/led bulb manufacturers have imported SMT pickup and place machines from China, Korea and Japan. Schematics are made by Indian professionals. Semiconductors(the main 5g chip) will need to be imported from one of the vendors(Altiostar, Cisco Systems, Datang Telecom, Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Qualcomm, Samsung, and ZTE) and they will have their nations back door.
ramana
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by ramana »

I made this post in Dec 2018 in Mil Forum...
ramana wrote:Neshant, What about US manufactured equipment? Do they not have security back doors?

Indian mil and gov networks are not connected to Huawei powered networks.
The main Indian customer needs 5G to propel to the next level of connectivity.
5G is expected to drive a huge job growth in India.
And Huawei equipment is cheaper than Western equipment.
Both have back doors and front doors.


Also when Indian military folks get honey or malai trapped regularly by ISI/US and pass on real secrets what is the concern with this back door equipment?
Have you notices any trapped Intel guy escape to Pakistan or China.
They all go to US.

What is needed is a balanced decision for India and not driven by hype.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by mukkan »

Indirectly related to 5G. US don't have any fabs in the latest advanced nodes 5nm and below. This may change if the below becomes true.
====================================================================================

U.S. government has been pressuring TSMC to build a U.S. factory for some time, since it wants sensitive components used in fighter jets, satellites and other military hardware to be built in-house. An American manufacturing operation could be useful for TSMC as it counts several major U.S. companies among its clients, including Intel, Broadcom Ltd., Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Those clients would potentially be able to design and build more advanced chips for the U.S. military if TSMC were to manufacture them in-country, the Journal said.

A U.S.-based TSMC facility would also enable Apple to shift some of its production to the U.S., while helping Trump to achieve his goal of bringing more manufacturing back to the country.

https://siliconangle.com/2020/05/10/pre ... roduction/
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by csaurabh »

kumarn wrote:https://telecom.economictimes.indiatime ... h/74534777

In a global first among mobile phone operators, Reliance Jio has developed its own 5G technology as it looks to reduce dependence on foreign vendors and bring cost-related advantages.
This doesn't sound very credible. Reliance has no history of making Telecom equipment. Over the decades in building up its network it has always used imported (mostly Chinese ) equipment.
Having not made a single switch, router ,network exchange or even simple connectors the sudden development of 5G tech sounds absurd to me. Most likely it is rebranding of some foreign product or perhaps some assembling being done.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by darshhan »

csaurabh wrote:
kumarn wrote:https://telecom.economictimes.indiatime ... h/74534777

In a global first among mobile phone operators, Reliance Jio has developed its own 5G technology as it looks to reduce dependence on foreign vendors and bring cost-related advantages.
This doesn't sound very credible. Reliance has no history of making Telecom equipment. Over the decades in building up its network it has always used imported (mostly Chinese ) equipment.
Having not made a single switch, router ,network exchange or even simple connectors the sudden development of 5G tech sounds absurd to me. Most likely it is rebranding of some foreign product or perhaps some assembling being done.
Decades? Jio is not that old. Most probably you are talking about Anil Ambani reliance group. Jio is with Mukesh Ambani. Now whether Jio is stating the truth or not is a different matter. But remember this claim of using 100% non chinese equipment was not made through usual PR channels. In fact this was reiterated by Mukesh Ambani himself at Donald Trump's press meeting during his India visit. I do not think that he will lie during such an occasion.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by csaurabh »

darshhan wrote:
Decades? Jio is not that old. Most probably you are talking about Anil Ambani reliance group. Jio is with Mukesh Ambani. Now whether Jio is stating the truth or not is a different matter. But remember this claim of using 100% non chinese equipment was not made through usual PR channels. In fact this was reiterated by Mukesh Ambani himself at Donald Trump's press meeting during his India visit. I do not think that he will lie during such an occasion.
Well I have seen a lot of imported telecom equipment passed around as Made in India :lol: So forgive me for jumping to conclusions. The case of the so called 'Indian' smartphone makers like Micromax and Carbonn are well known ( just rebranded Chinese phones ). But it is more than just that. Recently I found a Renesas USB hub sold under the name of 'Quantum zero', Ikon radio equipment being passed under the name 'Manasrekha' and so on.

I read the article again and it makes a lot of tall claims, including native cloud software and such like. Leaving that aside, here is a thought experiment as to whether a simple telecom equipment ( 5G or otherwise ) can be made in India.

Components. Most electronic components are not made in India. Semiconductors (IC) are definitely not, though there are fabless chip designers and companies in India (Mostly MNC). IIRC Zoho has claimed to have designed a 5G chip. Manufacturing can be done in Taiwan or elsewhere.

Antenna: For wireless communication all kinds of antenna are needed. Since India is decently advanced in antennas I'll let this pass.

Printed Circuit Board (PCB). Can be designed and manufactured in India. I have worked with Indian PCB manufacturers they give high quality ( undoubtedly using imported machines ). Though they are not cost competitive with China for large numbers.

Now the SMD components have to be placed on the circuit board. This is done using pick and place machines, usually imported from China or Soko ( some Indian efforts in this direction ). Once everything is placed it has to be put in solder reflow oven.

Then the remaining through hole components can be soldered on. This is still mostly a manual process. High quality soldering irons not made in India, and it requires some decent blue collar skills. The board needs to be tested. ICT board can be made for mass quality testing.

Then finally there are the housings, enclosures, connectors, wiring, etc. All are made in India, though not the highest quality.

Of course there is also the embedded software which makes the whole thing work. India has decent talent in this regard again mostly in MNC (including Huawei! ).

All put together and not accounting for imported machines and components, I think it is just about possible. However, that doesn't mean Reliance can do it. We believe, or want to believe, that Reliance/Jio is the next Huwaei , Samsung or Sony Ericsson. But Reliance is a typical baniya-giri setup. Imported kits, screw driver assembly, paint/sticker logo and marketing. The idea that some baniya with no knowledge of technology can develop cutting edge telecommunication equipment is a bit of a stretch of the imagination!
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by syam »

csaurabh wrote: All put together and not accounting for imported machines and components, I think it is just about possible. However, that doesn't mean Reliance can do it. We believe, or want to believe, that Reliance/Jio is the next Huwaei , Samsung or Sony Ericsson. But Reliance is a typical baniya-giri setup. Imported kits, screw driver assembly, paint/sticker logo and marketing. The idea that some baniya with no knowledge of technology can develop cutting edge telecommunication equipment is a bit of a stretch of the imagination!
So, since we can't make 100% indigenous product, let's stop making 30% indigenous products also. no wonder we never made even basic toy for decades.

this sort of ridiculing won't help us. there is nothing wrong with any typical baniya-giri setup. do you know how many american cos simply put stickers and make millions? no product is made 100% at home these days.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by ramana »

No, he did not do that. He is pointing out all the areas that need vast improvement including the business model of Bombay Trading Companies that control the politicians.
And let us stick to India and Indian mfg.
US can and will outsource to the next cheapest source.
Right now Apple is claiming to shift its mfg to India.
The deal will be the same EIC type.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Vamsee »

ramana garu,

I don't agree with the comparison of Apple manufacturing deal with EIC. Samsung already has worlds largest phone manufacturing plant in Noida & this apple deal, if it goes thru, will create similar facility in South India (Chennai?). It is a good thing. We badly need industrialization. Initially all important components will come from SE Asian countries and will just be assembled in India but over the years our value addition will increase. It will create well paying jobs for millions.
We need to create millions of skilled men & women who are able to shape metal into useful things. We are building freight corridors. We already have ports. There is no reason why we should not become grab a slice of manufacturing from China.

--Vamsee
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by csaurabh »

ramana wrote:No, he did not do that. He is pointing out all the areas that need vast improvement including the business model of Bombay Trading Companies that control the politicians.
And let us stick to India and Indian mfg.
US can and will outsource to the next cheapest source.
Right now Apple is claiming to shift its mfg to India.
The deal will be the same EIC type.
Apple deal is assembly/screwdriver technology similar to Samsung and some other companies which have set up shop in the country.
Nothing bad per se if it generates some jobs. It just shouldn't be confused with national tech development.

The more I think about it the only very strong obstacle to the development of indigenous electronics is the manufacturing of semiconductors . In the short term this can be solved by purchasing some ageing 40nm fabs second hand from other countries. ( Like ISRO has a 180nm process node at SCL Chandigarh ).
In the long term, we will need to develop our own semiconductor manufacturing technology. This is a very tall order as semiconductor mfg. is the hardest technology in the world ( like Jet engine is easy by comparison :lol: ). It would require a dedicated program with massive funding and decades of patience.

As for our marvellous baniyas, what to say onlee, they have not been able to develop high quality soldering irons in the country ( a technology over 100 yrs old ). The one I use in my lab is imported from Weller in Germany for Rs. 23K.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^Weller is a well known brand world wide. Their precision temperature controlled soldering stations are very good. But you're right. India should have been able to produce precision soldering stations for the whole world.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by vera_k »

I don't see the need to be dismissive of Apple's proposed investment. Apple is increasingly branching out, including eventually building its own semiconductors replacing both Qualcomm and Intel. Having some presence in India would allow competition for future manufacturing when its time. But it has to start somewhere. Plus its unclear right now that India has enough trained manpower for high tech outside software.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by csaurabh »

The rationale for developing high quality soldering irons is no worse than that of developing indigenous 5G telecom equipment.
If our baniyas can't develop high quality soldering irons ( a 100 yr old technology ), why do we expect them to develop high quality telecom equipment?
vera_k wrote:I don't see the need to be dismissive of Apple's proposed investment. Apple is increasingly branching out, including eventually building its own semiconductors replacing both Qualcomm and Intel. Having some presence in India would allow competition for future manufacturing when its time. But it has to start somewhere. Plus its unclear right now that India has enough trained manpower for high tech outside software.
India has decent manpower in high tech. In Govt. research organizations, MNCs and even academia.
However shortage of funds is what prevents these people from starting their own companies which could give the foreign companies a run for their money.
The funding would be possible if our moneyed people put their money where their mouth is. But they seem to have other priorities ( like Ambani building a Rs 6000 cr residential 'tower' )

The stupendous technological achievements of the west were made possible by a nexus between bankers/moneyed people and scientists/engineers/inventors over last 150 yrs or more. Example JP Morgan financing Nikola Tesla. This has not emerged in India for historical reasons.
Even now you can see this in our startup ecosystem. Our investors chase easy/quick money like mobile apps and grocery delivery services which masquerade as 'tech companies' :rotfl: They don't prefer hardcore R&D.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by mukkan »

Interesting read about politics in standards bodies. India's TSDI proposal is in competition with other big and small companies. This article about chinese company Nufront whose proposal for lot latency is competing with India's proposal.
-------------------------

The Enhanced Ultra High Throughput-5th Generation (EUHT-5G) is an ultra-high-speed wireless communication system, developed by Nufront (Beijing) Technology Group.
It is interesting to note the source of the objections was the same as last December 2019: China’s own entrenched large manufacturers of communications equipment. Nevertheless, Nufront is now an ITU 5G technology standard candidate along with the 3GPP, ETSI / DECT, and India’s TSDSI proposals.

In January 2017, EUHT-5G was deployed on the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity High-Speed Rail and has been running for over two years in the Harmony bullet trains (300km/h speed). Since 2018, the metros of several cities, including Beijing and Guangzhou, have been using EUHT-5G for smart subway operations. The Fuxing bullet trains, running at 350km/h, will also deploy EUHT-5G.

The Guangzhou-Shenzhen expressway, the first commercial case to meet Cooperative Intelligent Transportation System (C-ITS) requirements, uses EUHT-5G. In the manufacturing space, too, the technology has been in use in both production and warehousing scenarios.

https://www.eetimes.com/unlock-5g-potential-with-euht/
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Tanaji »

csaurabh wrote: This doesn't sound very credible. Reliance has no history of making Telecom equipment. Over the decades in building up its network it has always used imported (mostly Chinese ) equipment.
Having not made a single switch, router ,network exchange or even simple connectors the sudden development of 5G tech sounds absurd to me. Most likely it is rebranding of some foreign product or perhaps some assembling being done.
If one goes by the report, I dont think it is completely off the mark. Please note that 5G is a swathe of things, not just hardware as you allude to. As I have mentioned earlier in my posts, 5G moves heavily into NFV (Network Function Virtualisation). Gone are the days (and with it the advantages) of Nokia, Nortel and Ericsson of old where they could charge bespoke money for customised hardware and software. With full virtualisation, smaller, nimble players can write software that is more geared for it that will run faster and be more scalable than the legacy code. Indeed, the report explictly mentions of IMS for voice core which is fully virtualised. Jio already has bought Rancore that has expertise in the IMS stack, so it is not a big leap to say they have come up with a IMS product. Same can happen for the service layer such as HSS and PCRF. Even Nokias and Ericsson are packaging open source products such as OpenStack any way, so Jio can definitely do it.

As far as your comments on hardware goes, yes you are correct. But I submit that Motabhai is a businessman. A managed switch can found around $500 now, less if it is not an established brand name. At that price point, how much profit margin do you think Reliance can make? And how many will buy a Jio switch? Even for Cisco, the money is not in the hardware, but in the services for support and licensing. A Jio switch will not command Cisco levels of money.

Should we invest in foundries and labs? absolutely. Should we be able to make machines that mount SMDs, do solders etc etc... as a strategic level yes, but I doubt if a private player will do it as there isnt that much money to be made.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by schinnas »

It so not correct to say that moneyed rich of India didn't invest in technology and R&D Tatas have a stellar reputation in the field with TIFR, contribution to IISc and many more incl in automobile engineering research and recently in battery tech. But the percentage is poor.

Ambani to his credit is trying to build tech muscle in the areas of software development, AI/ML, telecom tech. Their attempt to create a research focussed Univ -Jio University by attracting top quality academic talent from India and abroad should be seen in this light. They are also investing big time into chemical engineering / polers, supply chain tech, warehouse robotics (as users, not inventors), building and operating very large scale data centers, etc. Their investment in capability building is tied to and driven by economic considerations and not patriotism or altruism.

But India owes certain degree of self sufficiency in chemicals and petroleum products thanks to Ambani. It's not easy to build world's largest integrated petrochemical complex and operate it more efficiently than most of the rest of the world. Not everyone needs to build a TIFR.

It takes all sorts of contributions to build a nation. No need to be disparaging of some type of contributions.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by csaurabh »

I am quite aware that modern electronics including network equipment is heavily software intensive. That isn't limited to 5G.
However, the situation of engineering software development in the country ( outside of MNC employees ) is totally pathetic. It is even more pathetic than the hardware development!
So much for being an IT supapowah!1!!

Btw all the equipment I mentioned does not need large factories. It can be done in a single large room (like 1500 sq feet ). A modern cottage industry.
You can have hundreds of these little cottage industries churning out tons of electronic goods ( including telecom equipment if needed ).
But hey imports are cool.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by SRoy »

csaurabh wrote:I am quite aware that modern electronics including network equipment is heavily software intensive. That isn't limited to 5G.
However, the situation of engineering software development in the country ( outside of MNC employees ) is totally pathetic. It is even more pathetic than the hardware development!
So much for being an IT supapowah!1!!

Btw all the equipment I mentioned does not need large factories. It can be done in a single large room (like 1500 sq feet ). A modern cottage industry.
You can have hundreds of these little cottage industries churning out tons of electronic goods ( including telecom equipment if needed ).
But hey imports are cool.
This is not correct.
Take it from yours truly in an Indian company. We do all that.
Hardware development does have a handicap in form that we don't have manufacturing facilities. Even for simple equipment we get even the prototype batches done from some sub-contractors in China.
Software part really depends on funding. Firmware engineers don't come cheap. You have to pay.

Networking equipment are relatively stable domain as far as software expertise is involved.

We work in a domain that requires moderate to heavy application of AI/ML driven software on the IoT Edge devices. Typically such equipment are deployed in hazardous/remote work environment.

We do all this in India.
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by mukkan »

India''s efforts in encouraging hardware startups and innovation.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Maker Village is the largest hardware incubator in the country with 67 startups incubated in a 60,000 sqft state-of-the-art facility.Maker Village is a unique incubator that provides everything necessary for a hardware startup to innovate, design, and build an awesome product.

https://makervillage.in/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF_3ZBgoBQw
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by chetak »

this is bound to impact Indian telecom players

It is not possible for any democratic govt not to take this major development into consideration as they plan to roll out their 5G services.

Image
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by mukkan »

Cost difference will be big. US may be able to afford the extra cost. Indian telcos providing dirt cheap and lowest price data may not able to afford.

Europe's 5G to cost $62 billion more if Chinese vendors banned: telcos
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huaw ... SKCN1T80Y3
mappunni
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Posts: 364
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by mappunni »

mukkan wrote:Cost difference will be big. US may be able to afford the extra cost. Indian telcos providing dirt cheap and lowest price data may not able to afford.

Europe's 5G to cost $62 billion more if Chinese vendors banned: telcos
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huaw ... SKCN1T80Y3
Heard that the US is willing to subsidize it for those who are willing to switch to Non-Cheeni players.
sooraj
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by sooraj »

Did a Chinese Hack Kill Canada’s Greatest Tech Company?
Nortel was once a world leader in wireless technology. Then came a hack and the rise of Huawei.
The documents began arriving in China at 8:48 a.m. on a Saturday in April 2004. There were close to 800 of them: PowerPoint presentations from customer meetings, an analysis of a recent sales loss, design details for an American communications network. Others were technical, including source code that represented some of the most sensitive information owned by Nortel Networks Corp., then one of the world’s largest companies.

At its height in 2000, the telecom equipment manufacturer employed 90,000 people and had a market value of C$367 billion (about $250 billion at the time), accounting for more than 35% of Canada’s benchmark stock market index, the TSE 300. Nortel’s sprawling Ottawa research campus sat at the center of a promising tech ecosystem, surrounded by dozens of startups packed with its former employees. The company dominated the market for fiber-optic data transmission systems; it had invented a touchscreen wireless device almost a decade before the iPhone and controlled thousands of fiber-optic and wireless patents. Instead of losing its most promising engineers to Silicon Valley, Nortel was attracting brilliant coders from all over the world. The company seemed sure to help lay the groundwork for the next generations of wireless networks, which would be known as 4G and 5G.
Back then, Ottawa, not traditionally (or since) known for its glamour, seemed full of sports cars, corporate jets, and even society scandals featuring tech CEOs. In 1999 the co-founder of Corel Corp., who’d gotten his start at Nortel’s precursor company, threw a gala at which his wife showed up in a C$1 million leather bodysuit with an anatomically correct gold breastplate and a 15-carat-diamond nipple. “You were just surrounded by the most interesting and intelligent people that you could find anywhere in the world,” says Ken Bradley, who spent 30 years at Nortel, including as a chief procurement officer. “Nobody would ever tell me I couldn’t do something.”

Nortel’s giddy, gilded growth also made it a target. Starting in the late 1990s, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, the country’s version of the CIA, became aware of “unusual traffic,” suggesting that hackers in China were stealing data and documents from Ottawa. “We went to Nortel in Ottawa, and we told the executives, ‘They’re sucking your intellectual property out,’ ” says Michel Juneau-Katsuya, who headed the agency’s Asia-Pacific unit at the time. “They didn’t do anything.”

By 2004 the hackers had breached Nortel’s uppermost ranks. The person who sent the roughly 800 documents to China appeared to be none other than Frank Dunn, Nortel’s embattled chief executive officer. Four days before Dunn was fired—fallout from an accounting scandal on his watch that forced the company to restate its financial results—someone using his login had relayed the PowerPoints and other sensitive files to an IP address registered to Shanghai Faxian Corp. It appeared to be a front company with no known business dealings with Nortel.
The thief wasn’t Dunn, of course. Hackers had stolen his password and those of six others from Nortel’s prized optical unit, in which the company had invested billions of dollars. Using a script called Il.browse, the intruders swept up entire categories from Nortel’s systems: Product Development, Research and Development, Design Documents & Minutes, and more. “They were taking the whole contents of a folder—it was like a vacuum cleaner approach,” says Brian Shields, who was then a senior adviser on systems security and part of the five-person team that investigated the breach.

Years later, Shields would look at the hack, and Nortel’s failure to adequately respond to it, as the beginning of the end of the company. Perhaps because of the hubris that came from being a market leader, or because it was distracted by a series of business failures, Nortel never tried to determine how the credentials were stolen. It simply changed the passwords; predictably, the hacks continued. By 2009 the company was bankrupt.
No one knows who managed to hack Nortel or where that data went in China. But Shields, and many others who’ve looked into the case, have a strong suspicion it was the Chinese government, which weakened a key Western rival as it promoted its own technology champions, including Huawei Technologies Co., the big telecom equipment manufacturer. Huawei says it wasn’t aware of the Nortel hack at the time, nor involved in it. It also says it never received any information from Nortel. “Any allegations of Huawei’s awareness of or involvement in espionage are entirely false,” the company says in a statement. “None of Huawei’s products or technologies have been developed through improper or nefarious means.”

What isn’t in dispute is that the Nortel hack coincided with a separate offensive by Huawei. This one was totally legal and arguably even more damaging. While Nortel struggled, Huawei thrived thanks to its unique structure—it was privately held, enjoyed generous credit lines from state-owned banks, and had an ability to absorb losses for years before making money on its products. It poached Nortel’s biggest customers and, eventually, hired away the researchers who would give it the lead in 5G networks. “This is plain and simple: Economic espionage did in Nortel,” Shields says. “And all you have to do is look at what entity in the world took over No. 1 and how quickly they did it.”


Most people know Huawei for its cellphones. The company started selling cheap knockoff phones around 2004 and went on to produce models with top-of-the-line processors, big screens, and slick software. Today it’s No. 2—behind Samsung Electronics Co. and ahead of Apple Inc.—in the phonemaking business.

But Huawei’s real power lies in its control over the plumbing of the Digital Age. The company sells routers and switches that direct data, servers that store it, components for the fiber-optic cables that transmit it, radio antennas that send it to wireless devices, and the software to manage it all. It’s willing to build those networks pretty much anywhere on the planet, including Mount Everest, the Sahara, and north of the Arctic Circle.
Ren Zhengfei, a former military engineer, founded Huawei in 1987 in Shenzhen, China’s testing ground for capitalism. The government wanted to reduce the telecom sector’s almost-total dependence on foreign equipment, and Huawei was one of hundreds of companies that aimed to speed the process. Ren targeted China’s neglected rural hinterlands, where Huawei became an expert at supplying gear that was cheap, reliable, and easy to maintain.

Huawei began plowing money into R&D as soon as it could. By the mid-1990s it was winning larger contracts, often by aggressively undercutting rivals. It overtook Shanghai Bell as the largest domestic maker of switches by bundling free equipment with its contracts. In routers, it took China’s No. 1 spot away from Cisco Systems Inc. by offering a 40% price break on comparable gear.

By the 2000s, Huawei was taking its strategy overseas, with the help of $10.6 billion in credit from China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, both controlled by Beijing. Its credit line would reach $100 billion over the next decade. Huawei, acting as a Chinese national champion, could offer telecom operators and mobile carriers low-cost long-term loans from the state banks to buy its equipment. (In 2012 the company told a U.S. congressional committee that customers borrowed only $5.9 billion of the $100 billion from 2005 to 2011.)

In 2005 the China Development Bank lent the Nigerian government $200 million to buy Huawei equipment for a national wireless network, offering an absurdly low interest rate, as little as 1%, according to a study by the Japan External Trade Organization. (The benchmark rate at the time was more than 6%.) Huawei’s overseas sales had been $50 million in 1999. By the end of 2005, they’d surged 100-fold, to $5 billion.

Around this time, Western companies began complaining about intellectual-property theft—complaints Huawei denied or chalked up to misunderstandings. Even so, the established telecom companies mostly ignored Huawei, seeing it merely as a low-cost competitor that would have trouble competing in their home markets. But in 2005, the company stunned the industry, winning a piece of a £10 billion ($19 billion) project to replace 16 national phone networks in the U.K. with a single digital one. Nortel and the telecom Marconi Corp. lost out. Then, in 2008, Huawei beat out Nortel on its home turf, landing a contract as part of a C$1 billion wireless network in Canada for Telus Corp. and BCE Inc.

In both cases, the Western buyers cited the technical strength of Huawei’s proposals. But it’s widely believed that the gear Huawei sold was also much, much cheaper. The company had a reputation at the time for initially offering its products at an enormous loss to get a foothold and win upgrades and services down the line. This prompted concerns, especially in the U.S., that Huawei would eventually own much of the world’s critical telecom infrastructure because of its backing from China. “None of the G-7 countries provide levels of financing anywhere near those of the China Development Bank,” said Fred Hochberg, then head of the Export-Import Bank of the U.S., in a 2011 speech. “That keeps me up at night.”
Huawei notes that its rivals enjoy backing from their own governments, though publicly available data suggest it’s much more modest than what Huawei has enjoyed. During the 1990s, Nortel financed its deals mostly with its own cash, which led to enormous losses when the dot-com bubble burst and telecom startups that had bought its equipment went out of business.

Despite that, and despite losing big contracts to Huawei, there were signs that Nortel was turning a corner by 2008. But then the global financial crisis froze credit markets, sending it again into crisis. Executives had hoped the Canadian government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper would bail out Nortel, but Harper instead focused on the auto industry, paying C$13.7 billion for equity stakes in General Motors Inc. and Chrysler LLC, hoping it would help persuade the American companies to keep their Canadian factories open.

The investment was a bust: Canada lost C$3.7 billion on the deal, according to calculations by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, and GM shuttered an enormous plant in Oshawa, Ont., anyway. Meanwhile, Nortel’s most promising business units were bought up by rivals including Ericsson, Ciena, and Avaya. “Stephen Harper dropped the ball on Nortel,” then-Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff said in September 2009. “He let a Canadian champion fail.”
In 2013 the cybersecurity company Mandiant announced it had completed an exhaustive investigation into alleged cyberattacks on 141 companies in the U.S., Canada, and other mostly English-speaking nations over the previous nine years. Researchers found that in almost every case, the data led back to a district in Shanghai near a Chinese military unit tasked with spying on computer networks in the U.S. and Canada. Mandiant, which is now a division of FireEye Inc., was saying aloud what many already suspected: The Chinese government was directly involved in economic espionage.

Huawei itself has been repeatedly accused of intellectual-property theft, most famously in 2003, when Cisco said the Chinese company had stolen source code verbatim from a router, cloning its help screens and even copying its manuals, typos and all. In another suit alleging IP theft, Quintel Technology Ltd., a developer of wireless antennas in Rochester, N.Y., cited a Huawei patent application in the U.S. that contained a copyright notice crediting “Quintel Technology Limited 2009.”

Huawei denied the allegations in both cases, and both companies eventually settled. But earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Justice charged Huawei with racketeering and conspiracy to steal trade secrets, accusing it of theft from six companies. Huawei has called the charges “unfounded and unfair,” saying they rest on “recycled civil disputes from the last 20 years that have been previously settled, litigated, and, in some cases, rejected by federal judges and juries.” It’s being targeted “for reasons related to competition rather than law enforcement,” it said in a statement in February.
China has repeatedly denied conducting cyber espionage on behalf of companies, but many Western intelligence officials and tech executives don’t buy this. In June former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt revived allegations about Huawei building backdoors into its technology. “There’s no question that information from Huawei routers has ultimately ended up in hands that would appear to be the state,” he told the BBC, likening the company to a spy agency. And earlier this year at a conference, U.S. Federal Communications Commissioner Brendan Carr called out “China, and Huawei that does their bidding,” adding, “they have a list of malign conduct longer than a CVS receipt.” Hanging over all of this is the 2018 arrest of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou (Ren’s eldest daughter) in Canada on U.S. fraud charges. China immediately jailed two Canadians, a move widely seen as retaliatory. Meng, who is currently out on bail in Canada while she fights extradition, maintains her innocence.
Huawei, which strenuously denies any relationship with the Chinese government, has at times resorted to a kind of corporate theater to prove its point. Over the past few years, the company has invited foreign reporters to its Shenzhen headquarters to inspect its shareholder list, a 10-volume set it keeps behind glass. (The books contain names of employees, who Huawei says are its only stockholders. None of the listed shareholders is a government agency or official.) That’s failed to convince critics, who point out that Chinese law obligates companies to cooperate with national intelligence work and to keep those requests secret. In other words, if asked, Huawei would have to spy for the state and cover up that spying. (U.S. companies have been accused of similar behavior, most famously following leaks by former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden.)

Whoever did it, the Nortel attack was in some respects even worse than other well-known cases of alleged cyber espionage. It lasted from at least 2000 to 2009, twice as long as any of the hacks in the Mandiant study. Shields says the techniques were sophisticated—obviously the work of state actors rather than a private company. Nortel executives, consumed by the company’s turnaround attempt, did almost nothing. Two board members say it never came up even though they were meeting management almost weekly in 2004. Dunn, the fired CEO, wasn’t informed, because he was ousted before the breach was detected and replaced by Bill Owens, a company director and retired U.S. Navy admiral.
But over the next five years—as its security team would discover the hack, probe it, then set it aside—Nortel, a global technological juggernaut, would respond to one of the longest-running Chinese hacks of the decade with a password update and a series of overtures to Huawei. Owens met repeatedly with Ren about a possible merger. He stepped aside in November 2005 for Mike Zafirovski, who in his previous job as chief operating officer at Motorola Inc. had nearly closed a secret deal to buy Huawei two years earlier. Under Zafirovski, Nortel and Huawei discussed a joint venture in routers and switches, a sale of its Ethernet division, and even a potential rescue during its final weeks.

None of those panned out, which may not have mattered much to the Chinese company, because as Nortel was collapsing, Huawei quietly hired about 20 Nortel scientists who’d been developing the groundwork for 5G wireless technology.


Today, Huawei’s research center in Ottawa doesn’t quite have the excitement of Nortel’s old campus. The company’s “Stealth Building” still evokes vitality, but it’s of a different sort. The five-story structure was designed to resemble the radar-evading silhouette of a B-2 bomber.

The lab houses the research of Wen Tong, once Nortel’s most prolific inventor and now the chief technology officer for Huawei’s wireless business. Tong led the exodus from Nortel to Huawei in 2009, after spending 14 years at the Canadian company. An electrical engineer by training, he’d emigrated from China to study at Montreal’s Concordia University and had amassed more than 100 patents in wireless research, generating some of Nortel’s most valuable intellectual property. When Nortel’s patent portfolio was finally sold off in bankruptcy in 2011 for a record $4.5 billion to a consortium including Apple and Microsoft Corp., the most prized of the batch were ones related to technologies his team had developed.

Up until Nortel’s collapse, Huawei had been a follower, not an innovator—“a second-fast mover” that could do things better and cheaper, says Song Zhang, Huawei’s vice president for research strategy and partnerships, who’d also worked at Nortel in the late 1990s. It was keen to join the small ring of mostly Western companies dominating next-generation wireless research.

Thousands were looking for jobs in Ottawa, and Huawei offered scientists such as Tong an increasingly rare kind of sanctuary: a well-funded lab focused on basic science, not product development, modeled after Bell Labs and Xerox Corp.’s Parc, the great drivers of 20th century American innovation. “They wanted to continue doing research, and they felt Huawei would invest in that,” Zhang says.

Tong was particularly interested in a problem that would prove crucial to the future of wireless communications. For years at Nortel he’d been studying data interference, which was becoming increasingly worse as data transfer speeds improved. The problem is a bit like the way an open window drowns out the radio as a car accelerates. In the mid-20th century, mathematician Claude Shannon calculated a maximum theoretical speed for transmitting information error-free, but for decades, researchers around the world had puzzled over how to reach it.

Tong brooded over the problem, earning him the nickname “Nortel’s answer to Claude Shannon.” He thought he spotted the answer in an arcane scientific paper on something called polar coding, a way of using algorithms to correct for errors. Pursuing it was risky, but with Huawei’s backing, he took the gamble and spent years trying to turn the idea into a crucial part of 5G technology.

Those efforts would pay off at a 2016 industry conference to set standards for the next generation of wireless infrastructure. Western companies had dominated these conferences in the past, but this time, all the Chinese companies lined up behind Huawei in favor of Tong’s protocol against a camp that favored sticking with an existing approach Qualcomm Inc. had developed. (Lenovo Group Ltd., the Chinese computer maker, had initially sided with the Western-led bloc before switching to Huawei’s side. The company’s founder later issued a public rebuttal after being accused of being traitorous on Chinese social media.)

“Nobody could agree to anything,” says Mike Thelander, the founder of Signals Research Group, who attended the gathering. It seemed clear the Chinese government had pressured its companies not to break ranks with Huawei, he says. The company was also proud of its solution and convinced of its merits. “Huawei had spent so much effort in R&D on polar coding, they just would not give in,” Thelander says. Eventually, around 2 a.m., a compromise was reached: Polar coding was adopted alongside the other protocol. Huawei, in other words, would be central to the development of 5G.

Being the standard setter ensures Huawei royalty payments for years to come. But more important, those who define the standards are the ones most intimately familiar with the technology at the core of the next wave of commercial deployments. In other words, while others are still trying to figure out the blueprint of next-generation infrastructure, Huawei will already be building it.

Despite the continued suspicions about the company being a potential IP thief, there’s some reason to think Huawei itself could be a target for cyber espionage, given the vast trove of research it’s assembled. In 2018 it became the world’s fourth-largest R&D spender, investing $15.3 billion in a year, and it now boasts 96,000 R&D employees globally. In 5G alone, Huawei has spent $4 billion in the past decade, more than the total invested by its Western rivals combined. Every fifth 5G proposal vetted by the international standards-setting organization is from Huawei, more than any company, according to researcher IPlytics GmbH.

Earlier this year, former Prime Minister Harper was asked in a Fox News interview how Huawei, which now supplies almost every Canadian telecom operator, had managed to penetrate his country so deeply. He said it was because the company had grown too strong and that there weren’t enough Western companies to compete against it, without acknowledging the irony that it was his administration that had allowed Nortel to collapse. “Ultimately, the government of the United States is going to have to work with allies to make sure that there are Western providers of all these equipment and services,” he warned. “Otherwise, the pull toward Huawei will get stronger and stronger.”
pankajs
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by pankajs »

I haven't followed the story so have no clue how legit it is but the re-tweet was by a trusted handle.

https://twitter.com/smita1900/status/12 ... 8873342976
Smita Purushottam @smita1900

Breaking good news from official sources: India's LMLC (Low Mobility Large Cell) 5G standard proposal cleared step 7 in ITU WP5D. After step 8 - "drafting technical document", India will be on podium with its contribution in 5G standards portfolio at global level. We can do it!
https://twitter.com/SuryaGangadhar6/sta ... 5039567872
Surya Gangadharan @SuryaGangadhar6
We had this story in April, India's homegrown rural 5G developed by TSDI, check out the whole India 5G story
https://stratnewsglobal.com/a-homegrown ... -attached/
Vips
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Vips »

At all costs, bar Chinese 5G entry into Indian telecom. Else, live under Beijing’s domination.

India’s strategic digital pushback against Chinese investments and apps has encouraged like-minded countries like the US, and some in Europe, to follow suit. Now it’s time to lasso the biggest Chinese domination tool – 5G, the umbrella under which apps, investments and soon governments could operate.

This new technology from China should not be looked at in isolation, as simply the purchase of telecom technology equipment, and part of India-China trade. It should be viewed in conjunction with China’s four heavens: BRI, the ambitious Digital Silk Route plan, Made in China 2025 and Chinese Standards 2035. Using its formidable AI base, 5G is the mother lode that enables the efficient gathering of global data from around the world, which will give cost efficiency to products listed in China 2025 and help China set global standards.

What’s now perceived by global manufacturers as standards “in China for China” will eventually be “by China for the world”. Visualise a four-tier cake – the bottom tier is BRI, the top tier is Chinese Standards 2035 and in between are the Digital Silk Route and Made in China 2025. 5G is the enabler for all, the infrastructural trunk or cake stand on which the cake sits.

Each global 5G network sale from China is one additional leg added to the cake stand, supporting and strengthening the multi-tier cake. Without strong legs supporting the cake stand, the four-tier cake will fall to the floor. The repercussions will be twofold: Externally for China’s global economic dominance and loss of bargaining power, while internally it could lead to internal strife and discontent, degrading the social contract of “the better life” for ordinary Chinese.

For a strategic, societal and demographic wave of change is under way in China. The country’s robust economic growth has meant rising wages and loss of the title China has held for so long, “the factory of the world”, over which the sun has begun to set. Deglobalisation – Covid-19 is the unexpected eclipse during the sunset – has seen China’s growth sink to an estimated 1% in 2020, the lowest in decades.

In return for continued authoritarian rule, the Chinese public wants better standards of living. This social contract is currently intact, but threatened. Premier Li Keqiang said at a press briefing last month, “There are 600 million impoverished Chinese who live on a monthly income of $161 and they need to be lifted out of poverty.” Higher wages plus an ageing demographic are putting a strain on China’s healthcare systems and budget.

The strongest leg of the cake-stand which holds the four-tier cake has already been weakened with the US and Japan looking at non-Chinese network equipment suppliers for 5G. European countries like the UK have announced they are relooking at the 5G contracts with Chinese equipment vendors given security vulnerabilities. Vietnam has developed its own version of 5G. The General Court, the second highest court in the EU, overturned the EC’s 2016 decision to block the takeover of O2 by a competitor, paving the way for consolidation of industries across the Union.

In the US, the China-US trade war and now a potential Chinese 5G boycott may change the fortune of debt-laden US telecom companies, which may get spectrum reserved for the defence sector to become competitive and avoid Chinese 5G installations.

In this scenario, China will do everything in its capacity to bring India to the table for 5G negotiations – via direct and indirect border skirmishes, drone attacks on oil installations on the west coast of India, cyberattacks, non-tariff barriers, misuse of Chinese social media apps, cutting off supplies of API. China will aggressively sue all Indian telecoms for reneging on contracts for current 4G upgradation and future 5G contracts if any, assuming jurisdiction clauses in these contracts are outside in a neutral country. A bailout package to pay the hefty fines, if imposed on Indian telecoms for reneging on contracts, will have to be funded by the government.

An already beleaguered Indian telecom sector will have to brace for more economic pain as equipment from non-Chinese companies is more expensive. But it can be incentivised by subsidies and tax breaks for patent development in India, enabling it to move from the current hardware-dependent networks to ones that will be software-centric with negligible dependency on the underlying hardware.

Imports from EU 5G equipment manufacturers will be the only option left on the table. The silver lining here is the long pending India-EU FTA will get oxygenated. It’s important for India to play an active role in the formation of the proposed D10 club by the UK administration, which consists of the G7 nations alongside South Korea and Australia. The D10 club is being created for channelling investments into existing telecom companies within the 10 member states, and creating alternative suppliers of 5G equipment and other technologies to avoid relying on China.

Could India eventually contribute to the birth cry of democracy and rule of law in China? What the WTO couldn’t achieve, the potential boycott of Chinese 5G equipment from a majority of G20 countries could well accomplish, if the deprived 600 million of China take to the streets. In that case, it’s Advantage India.
Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4699
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Vips »

At all costs, bar Chinese 5G entry into Indian telecom. Else, live under Beijing’s domination.

India’s strategic digital pushback against Chinese investments and apps has encouraged like-minded countries like the US, and some in Europe, to follow suit. Now it’s time to lasso the biggest Chinese domination tool – 5G, the umbrella under which apps, investments and soon governments could operate.

This new technology from China should not be looked at in isolation, as simply the purchase of telecom technology equipment, and part of India-China trade. It should be viewed in conjunction with China’s four heavens: BRI, the ambitious Digital Silk Route plan, Made in China 2025 and Chinese Standards 2035. Using its formidable AI base, 5G is the mother lode that enables the efficient gathering of global data from around the world, which will give cost efficiency to products listed in China 2025 and help China set global standards.

What’s now perceived by global manufacturers as standards “in China for China” will eventually be “by China for the world”. Visualise a four-tier cake – the bottom tier is BRI, the top tier is Chinese Standards 2035 and in between are the Digital Silk Route and Made in China 2025. 5G is the enabler for all, the infrastructural trunk or cake stand on which the cake sits.

Each global 5G network sale from China is one additional leg added to the cake stand, supporting and strengthening the multi-tier cake. Without strong legs supporting the cake stand, the four-tier cake will fall to the floor. The repercussions will be twofold: Externally for China’s global economic dominance and loss of bargaining power, while internally it could lead to internal strife and discontent, degrading the social contract of “the better life” for ordinary Chinese.

For a strategic, societal and demographic wave of change is under way in China. The country’s robust economic growth has meant rising wages and loss of the title China has held for so long, “the factory of the world”, over which the sun has begun to set. Deglobalisation – Covid-19 is the unexpected eclipse during the sunset – has seen China’s growth sink to an estimated 1% in 2020, the lowest in decades.

In return for continued authoritarian rule, the Chinese public wants better standards of living. This social contract is currently intact, but threatened. Premier Li Keqiang said at a press briefing last month, “There are 600 million impoverished Chinese who live on a monthly income of $161 and they need to be lifted out of poverty.” Higher wages plus an ageing demographic are putting a strain on China’s healthcare systems and budget.

The strongest leg of the cake-stand which holds the four-tier cake has already been weakened with the US and Japan looking at non-Chinese network equipment suppliers for 5G. European countries like the UK have announced they are relooking at the 5G contracts with Chinese equipment vendors given security vulnerabilities. Vietnam has developed its own version of 5G. The General Court, the second highest court in the EU, overturned the EC’s 2016 decision to block the takeover of O2 by a competitor, paving the way for consolidation of industries across the Union.

In the US, the China-US trade war and now a potential Chinese 5G boycott may change the fortune of debt-laden US telecom companies, which may get spectrum reserved for the defence sector to become competitive and avoid Chinese 5G installations.

In this scenario, China will do everything in its capacity to bring India to the table for 5G negotiations – via direct and indirect border skirmishes, drone attacks on oil installations on the west coast of India, cyberattacks, non-tariff barriers, misuse of Chinese social media apps, cutting off supplies of API. China will aggressively sue all Indian telecoms for reneging on contracts for current 4G upgradation and future 5G contracts if any, assuming jurisdiction clauses in these contracts are outside in a neutral country. A bailout package to pay the hefty fines, if imposed on Indian telecoms for reneging on contracts, will have to be funded by the government.

An already beleaguered Indian telecom sector will have to brace for more economic pain as equipment from non-Chinese companies is more expensive. But it can be incentivised by subsidies and tax breaks for patent development in India, enabling it to move from the current hardware-dependent networks to ones that will be software-centric with negligible dependency on the underlying hardware.

Imports from EU 5G equipment manufacturers will be the only option left on the table. The silver lining here is the long pending India-EU FTA will get oxygenated. It’s important for India to play an active role in the formation of the proposed D10 club by the UK administration, which consists of the G7 nations alongside South Korea and Australia. The D10 club is being created for channelling investments into existing telecom companies within the 10 member states, and creating alternative suppliers of 5G equipment and other technologies to avoid relying on China.

Could India eventually contribute to the birth cry of democracy and rule of law in China? What the WTO couldn’t achieve, the potential boycott of Chinese 5G equipment from a majority of G20 countries could well accomplish, if the deprived 600 million of China take to the streets. In that case, it’s Advantage India.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by ramana »

Trust NaMo. In govt he knows the most about 5 G. Has been studying it since sometime.
nvishal
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by nvishal »

Revisiting this thread after a few months. Many good posts from saurabh.

Aside from semiconductor and LCD fabrication, almost everything else is already being done in india albeit at prototype scale.

LCD plant requires huge capital. Google for vedantas anil agarwal saga

Semiconductor technology is an industry secret and even their assembly lines are barred from export. Chinese stole what they could from Taiwanese firms but still lag in that area.
M_Joshi
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by M_Joshi »

News from Feb but haven't seen it posted on this thread.

DoT gets right to bar Chinese firms from govt telecom tenders
The provision of clause 10(d) of Public Procurement (Preference to Make in India) Order 2017 can be invoked in relation to certain telecom items against any foreign government that does not allow “Indian suppliers to participate and/or compete in procurement of telecom equipment", according to a DoT letter addressed to all central and state government departments and public sector units dated 19 February.

The Public Procurement Order 2017 stipulates that if a nodal ministry is satisfied that Indian suppliers of an item are not allowed to participate and/or compete in procurement by any foreign government, it may, if it deems appropriate, restrict or exclude bidders from that country from being eligible for supplying that item and/or other items relating to the nodal ministry.

“Further the provision of clause 10(d) should find clear and specific mention in any telecom equipment procurement tender floated by any government/PSU procurement agency," the letter said.
This clause can be used to the hilt now..
nvishal
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by nvishal »

Apparently, jio acquired a US based firm called RADISYS in 2018 with the objective of 5G development. Google search for "radisys 5g" throws many results. Jio claims it has the technology(SW=self. Vendor chip=?) and has asked permission from GoI to carry out tests.

Meanwhile, airtel has partnered up with Nokia to build its 5G network which means airtel 5G will be the first to arrive. Jio 5G will arrive late but it maybe cheap and might go global. This maybe why foreign investors have suddenly pumped in billions into jio.
darshan
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by darshan »

I would track the test equipment vendors like Rohde, Keysight, NI, etc. Especially NI that was go to place for 5G waveform prototype equipment for pretty much everyone. Radisys would have sucked in some of the talent of failed Intel ventures into the 4G/5G modem business. Though still very hard to compete against big talent shelving vacuums like Apple.


https://www.ni.com/en-us/about-ni/newsr ... sting.html
chanakyaa
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by chanakyaa »

$97m is pocket change for Qualcomm, which is a big player in the 5G space. Lot of capital channeled thru mota bhai.

Qualcomm to invest $97 million in India’s Reliance Jio Platforms
Qualcomm has become the newest high-profile backer of four-year-old Reliance Jio Platforms, which has raised more than $15.7 billion in the past 12 weeks from as many investors.

On Sunday evening, Qualcomm Ventures said it will invest $97 million in Reliance Jio Platforms to acquire a 0.15% equity stake “on a fully diluted basis” in the top Indian telecom operator. Qualcomm said it will help Jio Platforms “roll out advanced 5G infrastructure and services for Indian customers.”
...
Sumair
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Re: 5G Technology News Discussions, Strategy and Impact to India

Post by Sumair »

That puts the valuation of Reliance Jio close to $65 Billions.
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