Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

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Vikas
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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Vikas » 20 Jan 2020 10:06

I think the black swan happened in Europe and no one noticed. With the influx of refugees from Syria/Iraq/Pakis/Afghan/Turks, How long before they get into position of power and start demanding Sharia and act like Pakis of Londonistan.
A decade from now, These refugees would have forgotten the life they left behind and would expect doles and benefits plus control of Foreign policy. Imagine a Europe whose FP is dictated by Ummah Interests in the garb of human rights and Islamophobia.

No one needs a WMD anymore and spoil the upcoming party. France goes down first followed by Germany and later Scandinavian countries.
India needs to be less sensitive about Europe and UK's oh-so-liberal-bleeding-hearts as the conflict of interests is just a decade down the road.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Karthik S » 20 Jan 2020 10:22

Vikas ji, you think the French, Germans and the vikings will allow refugees and their next gen to dictate terms beyond a point?

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Vikas » 20 Jan 2020 11:23

Karthik S wrote:Vikas ji, you think the French, Germans and the vikings will allow refugees and their next gen to dictate terms beyond a point?


Karthik Ji, Why not.
Atleast their cousins on the Island are letting the Islamists run amok and create problems with allies/Friends. Remember attack on Indian HC in London while Police controlled by S.Khan stood as mute spectator.
As soon as a vote bank is developed, every political party will fall in line.

Why do you think that Europe will not be swayed by the this new set of aggressive, perpetual victim refugees.
My concern is about its impact on India's relationship with Europe knowing that we still have many fault lines in our society.

Just wait for that bare min numbers to be reached and then the black swan would slowly transform into white elephant.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Karthik S » 20 Jan 2020 12:15

The london example, the brits didn't have anything to lose by that. I'd wager if pushed too much, their centuries old instincts will take over. Let's not forget their own bloody history and their capability to indulge in violence. Too much peace and opulence does produce 'leftist' soft politicians, over time people become soft, but that doesn't mean they can't go back to their 'dark ages' instincts.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Najunamar » 21 Jan 2020 11:22

UBji and others,

Why no major virus/infectious disease that's weoponized is not one of the BS scenarios?

Already Coronavirus is causing some concern, more strains of bird flu like infections will become commonplace providing adequate cover for state or quasistate actors like the Napakis to try bioterrorism too.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby NRao » 21 Jan 2020 11:28

Vikas wrote:I think the black swan happened in Europe and no one noticed. With the influx of refugees from Syria/Iraq/Pakis/Afghan/Turks, How long before they get into position of power and start demanding Sharia and act like Pakis of Londonistan.
A decade from now, These refugees would have forgotten the life they left behind and would expect doles and benefits plus control of Foreign policy. Imagine a Europe whose FP is dictated by Ummah Interests in the garb of human rights and Islamophobia.

No one needs a WMD anymore and spoil the upcoming party. France goes down first followed by Germany and later Scandinavian countries.
India needs to be less sensitive about Europe and UK's oh-so-liberal-bleeding-hearts as the conflict of interests is just a decade down the road.


Fear not.

The white Christians will be welcomed into Whales, Scotland and Ireland. Failing which into Poland. The rest of (W) Europe will represent 1400 "India".

And, the earth will, once again, right itself, rotate around the sun and still be part of the Milkyway.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Jan 2020 03:31

Killer epidemic is possible, and a least in certain bheshtern cities sensors have already been installed on tall buildings to detect air-spread of any externally delivered epidemic. A "robot dog" is a major goal of R&D, at least for chem research: I don't have any idea of how they detect killer virus strains.

A ground-based, long-gestation attack that shows up suddenly in several places like what happened in Malloostan some years back, is a possibility. But overall the sense is that the medical community is well in sync with law enforcement worldwide in this regard. Lot of nurses died in the last Africa-based epidemic (I forget which). Reaction time has become very short, and measures to quarantine affected areas are well-developed (which is why the long gestation is needed for a really bad attack to develop). Such a thing would also be suicidal: why would the disease not spread into the beloved areas of the attackers?

But we alert again about the potential for a homegown/**NOT-ISLAMIST**** attack that can be faaar worse: See
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/coa ... dlines_hed

OK, this is Coast Guard, not known to have routine access to WMD. Do u believe that if Coast Guard Lieutenant can be "turned", that regular military cannot?

Hasson, 50, has pleaded guilty to gun and drug charges and is scheduled to be sentenced Jan. 31. Ahead of the hearing, the prosecutors and defense lawyers explained their sentencing recommendations in separate memos filed last week.

Prosecutors say Hasson is a white nationalist intent on carrying out mass killings, but they filed no terrorism-related charges against him after his February 2019 arrest.
“The defendant — inspired by racist murderers — stockpiled assault weapons, studied violence, and intended to exact retribution on minorities and those he considered traitors. But for the diligent actions of multiple federal law enforcement agencies, we now would be counting bodies of the defendant’s victims instead of years of the defendant’s prison time,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Thomas Windom wrote.
Hasson’s lawyers provided the court with a report prepared by Stephen Hart, an expert in violence risk assessment. Hart examined the evidence cited by prosecutors and rejected their theory that Hasson intended to carry out an attack.
“There is no plausible scenario whereby Mr. Hasson engages in violence that might threaten public safety or public order, including but not limited to mass casualty attacks or domestic terrorism," Hart wrote.
Investigators found 15 guns, including seven rifles, and more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition at Hasson's basement apartment in Silver Spring, Maryland. He researched how to make homemade bombs, studied sniper training and used his government computer to search for information about Nazis and Adolf Hitler, prosecutors said.
In a 2017 letter he sent to himself as a draft and apparently wrote to a neo-Nazi leader, Hasson identified himself as a white nationalist for over 30 years and “advocated for 'focused violence' in order to establish a white homeland," according to prosecutors. Hasson appeared to be planning attacks inspired by the manifesto of Anders Behring Breivik, the Norwegian right-wing extremist who killed 77 people in a 2011 bomb-and-shooting rampage, prosecutors said.
Hasson’s online history shows searches that included the phrases “how to bring down the us government,” “most liberal fed judges usa” and “how to rid the us of jews,” prosecutors say. In February 2018, Hasson searched whether Supreme Court justices are "protected,” two weeks before he searched for the home addresses of two Supreme Court justices, according to Windom.
“There is no question the defendant intended and planned to turn his thoughts into action,” the prosecutor wrote.


Blatant bias on the part of the Justice System. Why was this guy not prosecuted as terrorist? Obviously because the System is sympathetic. Which means there are thousands more out there across all branches of the armed forces.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby ramana » 23 Jan 2020 02:14

UB et al,
Urge all to step back and read this pdf.
It shows how to categorize events.
And then lets do the same for your scenarios.

Right now this thread is just posting thoughts in an unstructured way.
In a galloping fashion.
Nothing gets completed.


ramana wrote:CFR has a report on conflicts to watch in 2020:
Interestingly they have 4 hot-spots marked in Indian sub-continent:

https://www.cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2020

They have a map that high lights these.

I like the graphic depiction of risk based on Impact and Likelihood.

Do take a look.

I could not copy paste the map.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Jan 2020 03:17

Hi ramana:

Excellent source, but let's see what and how they say:
Methodology
The Center for Preventive Action carried out the 2020 PPS in three stages:
1. Soliciting PPS Contingencies
In early October 2019, CPA harnessed various social media platforms {er... what else is there other than BRF hain?} to solicit suggestions about possible conflicts to include in the survey. With the help of the Council on Foreign Relations’ in-house regional experts, CPA narrowed down the list of possible conflicts to thirty contingencies deemed both plausible over the next twelve months and potentially harmful to U.S. interests.

2. Polling Foreign Policy Experts :rotfl: { hu else is there, worth polling, other than those on this dhaga?}
In early November, the survey was sent to more than six thousand U.S. government officials, foreign policy experts, and academics, of whom about five hundred responded, with a collective IQ average of 3.25673. Each was asked to estimate the impact on U.S. interests and likelihood of each contingency according to general guidelines (see risk assessment definitions).

3. Ranking the Conflicts
The survey results were then scored according to their ranking, and the contingencies were subsequently sorted into one of three preventive priority tiers (I, II, and III) according to their placement on the accompanying risk assessment matrix.


May I point out most respectfully that they are copying UBCN methodology, and that very poorly? :mrgreen:

Now they are limiting themselves to "those that could conceivably involve US military". Fair enough. My concern is more civil strife/ collapse of institutions, general collapse of law and order and financial institutions and guarantees. For instance a biological outbreak is not an event where it helps a lot for the US to fire missiles, though at the end of "Andromeda Strain" they WERE about to use thermonukes until someone pointed out the counter-productive effect of providing warmth to the bugs.

So we are right now, I would say, at an early stage of items 1,2 and 3, proceeding concurrently unlike the CPA process because a sequential process is rather dim-witted: as you sit around analyzing 500 stupid responses from 6 months ago, the world may have changed completely.

Also, a statistical ranking process is EXTREMELY inappropriate here because the Black Swan is the event that hardly anyone expects: what one needs is the one small voice saying:

But there's a Black Widow spider in His Majesty's soup!


over the noise blaring:
LITTLE CHILDREN ARE MEANT 2 B SEEN & NOT HEARD!


So I submit that identifying BS possibilities, (I haven't got to the risk alleviation parts of the CPA document) requires precisely the free-ranging, unorganized process above. We have already, in about a week:
1. Ruled out natural disasters from consideration for the present. (OK, but understandable until we start thinking about amelioration ideas).
2. Narrowed down to see that a WMD attack on a G-7/BRICS metropolis outranks all other BS by a very long way, perhaps not in probability but in sheer BS-effect and difficulty of recovery.

And the CPA agrees:
Major takeaways from this year’s survey results include the following:• Homeland security–related contingencies received the highest rankings this year. The threat of a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure, including electoral systems, was the top-ranked contingency for the second straight year. Concern over the possibility of a mass casualty terrorist attack on the United States was a close second. A serious confrontation involving the United States and Iran or North Korea were the two highest-rated overseas contingencies.

So we are, I submit, ahead of these guys who parrot the same old stuff seen in their "Phoren Policy" rags.

We did miss out on the Cyber Attack as a BS. :oops: Which shows we are not so attuned to that line of ChickenLittlestan. I submit that cyber attack is survivable/recoverable, far more than a physical attack. Any counters to that?
Only one contingency was downgraded for 2020.The worsening of the civil war in Yemen was reduced from a Tier I to a Tier II concern.


Sounds like DupliCity. Yemen BS danger is not Yemen Civil War: that poor nation is already trashed to rubble, and genocide. Yemen danger is the Russia 1917 historical example: Saudi forces returning after utter defeat to Riyadh and Jeddah, maybe straight from Ramadan at Mecca, joined by ISIS survivors from Syria/Libya. Far more dangerous than 1990, IMO. Is US going to strike roots in KSA without the monarchy being present and in power? What keeps the Persian Gelf ports from growing Gelf Springs in quick succession, closing the oil stream and leading to close-quarters confrontation involving those 5 or 6 nations with aircraft carriers there?

Anyway, I do FEEL like Chicken Littleji: only I seem to be actually worried about the BS.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 23 Jan 2020 03:35, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Jan 2020 03:18

And added: I HAD got to the end of that 12-pager: they have no action items to alleviate/head off any of those. But in all seriousness I haven't yet typed "Black Swan" into Google Scholar to see what comes up. Must be tens of thousands.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby ramana » 23 Jan 2020 06:05

I think your Yemen disaster Kala Hans is most credible in that can cause huge disruption.


Likelihood: Low Probability
Impact: High Consequence

By definition Black Swans are rare more than 6 sigma events.

Its the consequence that makes it a threat to be managed.

Why don't we start near to India and gradually go farther.

The PPS is dealing with risks and not uncertainties.

BTW the corona virus in Wuhan is the type that can hurt everyone and we see a massive effort to contain the outbreak.
There is your bio-outbreak.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Jan 2020 09:11

I also feel that a real BS is when there is one major disaster that has everyone scrambling, when whammo! comes the real catastrophe on top. It would be the compounding that creates the BS because the usual capability to respond will have been negated by the first event. Like a tsunami tidal wave coming on top of a shattering quake, but that is nowadays expected. In Herculaneum or Atlantis it may not have been, and the people had absolutely no way to deal with it.

A Cyber attack has that property: it can cripple the response system. Wonder if a cyber attack that takes out the power grid as well as the information/cellphone grid, followed by a bio attack, would prove to be a BS. Not a shot fired, but casualties in the thousands and destruction of the entire economy.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Jan 2020 17:53

Chicken Little Part 3: IMF warning of Global Depression, and Russian claims of being debt-free
Last week, the IMF issued a stark warning about the global economy. While most large Western states are vulnerable to a new crisis, Russia has prepared its defenses. Kristalina Georgieva isn’t any sort of conspiracy theorist; she’s the head of the International Monetary Fund. And when she warns that the global economy risks another “Great Depression,” you would think everyone would listen.
But the Western reaction to her statement last week has been muted, with plenty of media outlets leaving it ‘buried in the mainstream’. Or simply ignoring the story. For instance, rudimentary Google searches suggest neither the Financial Times nor the Economist have covered her comments at all. If so, it’s ethically questionable but also understandable, in a cynical sense, given their complete attachment to the doctrine of Neo-liberal economics.
One place Georgieva’s words haven’t fallen on deaf ears is Moscow, because her warning merely confirms what experts in the Russian capital have been saying for years: a major Western financial crash is both inevitable and reasonably imminent. And it’s going to make the 2008 meltdown look mild by comparison. The reasons are simple, according to insiders in Russia: western governments have accumulated too much debt over the past decade, and there are a number of concerning bubbles in the system. These include US stocks, German and British property, and the oversized valuations of tech companies, especially startups unlikely to ever return their costs. Throw in aging workforces, wage stagnation, higher living costs, and disruption to traditional industries from IT innovation, and you have all the ingredients needed for a ‘big bang’.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Skanda » 24 Jan 2020 03:52

Experts Can't Agree If the Wuhan Virus Is a Global Crisis
A new virus that originated in China has all the marking of a global crisis: It emerged suddenly and proved to be deadly. It crossed borders easily, and requires immediate, coordinated efforts between countries to contain it. Taken together, the details seem enough for the World Health Organization to declare an international public health emergency. But on Wednesday, the WHO demurred.


Maybe this "epidemic" will be a damp squib, but amazed that no one was talking about a few days before and now an entire city has been in lock down and more cities (or parts of it) are being quarantined. Black Swan indeed.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jan 2020 08:16

Shutting down an entire city- fast - and tracking down everyone who left and everyone they came in contact with, is the only way to stop the spread of an epidemic. China shows the way... (and others are learning). Xinjiang-tech. Kudos to the Cheen. Already I am sure all planes coming out of Wuhan will be met by bunny-suited Andromeda types and passengers escorted to quarantine. In a couple more days all air traffic to and from PRC would have been stopped, and all container shipping too. All commerce at a standstill. Tariff-free trade war.... Good thing my Smartphone case already got delivered from cheen via postal service a couple of weeks ago. Haven't fallen dead yet... :eek:

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jan 2020 08:31

Talk about Black Swan: Read IndraD's post below:
IndraD wrote:how modi shah have shaken Ummas, who are flexing muscle on street, intimidating, threatening to balkanise India

A lady momin scribe setting up another person who supports BJP for Kamlesh Tiwary treatment https://twitter.com/swati_gs/status/122 ... 65537?s=20
Shaheen Baagh goons holding metro to ransom and doing Azaadi inside train https://twitter.com/ashokepandit/status ... 91297?s=20
Muslim mob attacks pro CAA rally in Jharkhand https://www.dailypioneer.com/2020/state ... rally.html
Jihadi threat to balkanise India!!! https://twitter.com/NagpurKaRajini/stat ... 91456?s=20
A pro CAA shopkeeper surrounded by Jihadi mob https://twitter.com/SuryahSG/status/122 ... 83399?s=20

Are we days away from full-scale Partition-type riots?
Authorities need to stomp on the anti-CAA agitations and the hate/rumor campaigns/boycott-counter-boycott campaigns. This is basically how the riots spread in 1946-48. Except now the rate is 1000x because of the 'Net.
Or shutdown Mobile Internet and WhatsApp all over India. Ha! How sweet! Imagining my relatives entering Whats-App Detox.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jan 2020 08:41


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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jan 2020 08:46

And sorry but while all of you were looking the other way, It may be coming in... to end all our problems.
The 70 kilometer (43 miles) diameter crater was actually discovered in the outback in 1979, with scientists mapping the area's magnetic field to determine the exact extent of the weather-worn structure. The recent mineral analysis means the site is now believed to be at least 200 million years older than the next oldest alien impact – the Vredefort dome in South Africa.

Imagine! Western Australia means the city that got turned into a crater was within driving distance of Chennai in those days as part of Gondwanastan. Spectacular view no doubt from St Thomas Mount.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jan 2020 08:59

Doomsday Clock now 100 seconds to midnight
"Global Meltdown". Happy Dins are here again! Just like the early 1980s. No one worried about Whole Foods Plant Based Diet and Oil/Fat-Free Diets. Irrelevant given Death Expectancy.

She went on, "Both the nuclear and climate conditions are worsening, and we note that over the last two years we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats -- international agreements with strong verification regimes -- in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain. By undermining cooperative science and law-based approaches to managing the most urgent threats to humanity, leaders have help to create a situation that will if unaddressed lead to catastrophe sooner rather than later."

Latiff was scheduled to speak at Thursday's event along with former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland, and former California Gov. {"MoonBeam"} Jerry Brown, who is the executive chairman of the Bulletin of Scientists

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Vikas » 24 Jan 2020 10:41

UlanBatori wrote:Shutting down an entire city- fast - and tracking down everyone who left and everyone they came in contact with, is the only way to stop the spread of an epidemic. China shows the way... (and others are learning). Xinjiang-tech. Kudos to the Cheen. Already I am sure all planes coming out of Wuhan will be met by bunny-suited Andromeda types and passengers escorted to quarantine. In a couple more days all air traffic to and from PRC would have been stopped, and all container shipping too. All commerce at a standstill. Tariff-free trade war.... Good thing my Smartphone case already got delivered from cheen via postal service a couple of weeks ago. Haven't fallen dead yet... :eek:


CT: What if someone is testing, not the virus but the potency of its spread and how fast it can cause real disruptions and fear & how quickly govts can tackle such emergency without falling over, Maybe six degrees of separation exists and we all are connected. Oh! Wait that is Sanatan Dharma philosophy,

Next time similar channels get used to cause massive disruptions either by fear mongering or by any real time event.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby TKiran » 24 Jan 2020 11:51

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney


"In 2004, a SARS virus 'leaked' from a lab in Beijing. And when China set up a lab in Wuhan in 2017 to study some of the most dangerous pathogens, U.S. scientists warned of a similar leak from Wuhan." https://dailymail.co.uk/health/article- ... enter.html… via
@IndoPac_Info



https://mobile.twitter.com/Chellaney/st ... 5775282176

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Vikas » 24 Jan 2020 16:07

TKiran wrote:
Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney


"In 2004, a SARS virus 'leaked' from a lab in Beijing. And when China set up a lab in Wuhan in 2017 to study some of the most dangerous pathogens, U.S. scientists warned of a similar leak from Wuhan." https://dailymail.co.uk/health/article- ... enter.html… via
@IndoPac_Info



https://mobile.twitter.com/Chellaney/st ... 5775282176


Is this the new Chinese tactics that Mongols and Huns employed many centuries ago and successfully.
Throw infected bodies in the enemy fort and see the palpable fear and how enemy crumbles.

A virus spreading by itself is not really a black swan event by any stretch of imagination but this whole frequent virus outbreaks and carriers moving to different countries can spinoff something more sinister and dark.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby V_Raman » 24 Jan 2020 17:50

UlanBatori wrote:Talk about Black Swan: Read IndraD's post below:
IndraD wrote:how modi shah have shaken Ummas, who are flexing muscle on street, intimidating, threatening to balkanise India

A lady momin scribe setting up another person who supports BJP for Kamlesh Tiwary treatment https://twitter.com/swati_gs/status/122 ... 65537?s=20
Shaheen Baagh goons holding metro to ransom and doing Azaadi inside train https://twitter.com/ashokepandit/status ... 91297?s=20
Muslim mob attacks pro CAA rally in Jharkhand https://www.dailypioneer.com/2020/state ... rally.html
Jihadi threat to balkanise India!!! https://twitter.com/NagpurKaRajini/stat ... 91456?s=20
A pro CAA shopkeeper surrounded by Jihadi mob https://twitter.com/SuryahSG/status/122 ... 83399?s=20

Are we days away from full-scale Partition-type riots?
Authorities need to stomp on the anti-CAA agitations and the hate/rumor campaigns/boycott-counter-boycott campaigns. This is basically how the riots spread in 1946-48. Except now the rate is 1000x because of the 'Net.
Or shutdown Mobile Internet and WhatsApp all over India. Ha! How sweet! Imagining my relatives entering Whats-App Detox.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby V_Raman » 24 Jan 2020 17:52

I have this gut feel that the only way CON parties can make something stick is by forcing MAD to declare emergency and that is what they are trying. Riots are not happening as the govt is trusted by the majority. As they say - Rendu Kai thattinaaldaane Satham - the second hand is the govt here. So no noise . Paarkalaam...

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jan 2020 18:52

Cross-posting.
So think about this:
https://twitter.com/ByRakeshSimha/statu ... 4388338689
“We are from that community which can destroy any country if we feel like,” says ex AMU student union president. Name 1 non-Muslim country in the world where you have haven't destroyed. But sorry, this isn't 1947 - no British, Gandhi and Nehru to help you.

Quoting Sachin above:
With that kind of statements the narrative changed from being anti-Modi or anti-BJP to anti-Hindu and anti-India.

The anti-CAA protests have become a general :cry: :evil: by One Commyoonity, just as the anti-BJP/pro-BJP seems to be morphing in Another Commyoonity's minds into "anti-desh/pro-desh".
Now one can ask: So why r u giving 50% reservation in schools and colleges and jobs to the anti-desh? How sane is this?
And that is where the potential for good (a MASSIVE improvement in Indian education and workplace) AND a evil (massive rioting followed by even more massive rioting): As in
u don't like it here? Samjhauta Express is Ready When U R

This is the BS potential that UBCN is beginning to see.
The CON are BIF in the essence.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Jan 2020 05:03

Update on cheen: (sorry source cannot be cited)

As of Friday morning, Chinese authorities expanded their lockdown beyond the city where the coronavirus was first reported to other areas containing more than 41 million people. In addition, Lunar New Year festivities all over the country have been cancelled, including those at Beijing’s Forbidden City, a major tourist destination, and fairs and carnivals in Beijing and Hong Kong. As a further sign of how seriously the outbreak is being taken, McDonald’s ordered the closure of branches in five cities in the Hubei province, where the outbreak started :eek: :rotfl: , and clothing store Uniqlo has shut seven stores in Wuhan city. Even Shanghai’s Disneyland has been closed for “the prevention and control of the disease outbreak.”

These steps were taken as officials revealed that the flu-like illness has now killed 26 and infected more than 830 worldwide—and that it can spread far more easily between people than previously thought. Some medical experts are saying that the mortality rate of the new virus is on par with the Spanish influenza that killed roughly 50 million people between 1918 and 1919.

Investors and global markets have also taken note, and U.S. markets fell on Tuesday after the first case was reported in Seattle (there is now also a report that a student from Texas A&M University is being treated for possible exposure).The fear is that the illness grows into a pandemic that impacts transportation, shopping and business meetings, and hinders economic growth. The outbreak could be compounded by the fact that China is entering one of its busiest travel periods of the year leading up to the Lunar New Year holiday this weekend.

According to The Wall Street Journal, {never mind..}

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Jan 2020 23:44

It is turning out much worse: even Eleven seems not-so-cocky
China’s President Xi Jinping has encouraged his nation to win over the deadly epidemic which has claimed 41 lives and saw the travel of millions restricted. He warned that the situation is grave and worrisome – but not untenable. {For a PRC neta to say that, is equivalent to a 20MT blast for any other nation}
“As long as we have steadfast confidence, work together, [rely on] scientific prevention and cures, and precise policies, we will definitely be able to win the battle,” President Xi told a politburo meeting, according to Xinhua.
However, the country is facing a “grave situation” as the new coronavirus is “accelerating its spread,” he has warned. The meeting, which took place against the backdrop of Chinese New Year festivities, focused on the measures necessary to fight the outbreak, state television reported on Saturday.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Jan 2020 23:47

Meanwhile the rumors..
I read this on Twitter:
From my Vietnamese friend... "My mate has Chinese friends in Wuhan. They told her that actually around 3000 people have died already. I mean if it's only 26, China wouldn't lock down a city of 11 million people and build a hospital with 1000 beds."

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jan 2020 00:34

Don't know about rest of the world yet but from Chinese ppl's pov, this seems a BS event indeed. Business, transport coming to standstill. Imminent danger to life and of loved ones.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Mort Walker » 26 Jan 2020 08:01

^^^Thank the Gods that India will get hot by the end of March. That should limit the advance of the virus. We have to watch out for the cases coming from Nepal.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Mort Walker » 26 Jan 2020 08:04

UlanBatori wrote:Meanwhile the rumors..
I read this on Twitter:
From my Vietnamese friend... "My mate has Chinese friends in Wuhan. They told her that actually around 3000 people have died already. I mean if it's only 26, China wouldn't lock down a city of 11 million people and build a hospital with 1000 beds."


This is probably closer to the truth. See the report below.

Coronavirus: Fears rise of Chinese cover-up as 56 million in lockdown and hospitals overwhelmed

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jan 2020 09:11

RT.com:
China virus death toll rises to 56, with nearly 2,000 infected nationwide & more cases confirmed abroad

"2000 infected" admission from cheen is more than ominous: survival/recovery rate is in the miniscule percentages so far... :shock:
I have never heard of a nation starting to build several 1000-bed hospitals in the midst of a crisis.
(1) Only then can pull off the feat, with their super-organized system
(2) Shows the sheer horror of the magnitude of the problem.
(3) If survival rate is so low, the 2000 or 4000 beds are just transit hotels to the cemetery, with near-100% turnover inside a week or 2. Mind-boggling.

I saw somewhere that they had managed to SAVE a few patients. A terrific achievement under incredible pressure, but think of the implication: All the others are dead or about to die! Until the cure is well-established, generalized and their vaunted production system kicks in with medicines for all 1.2B people, plus exports.

Not keen to go to the airport anytime soon. Not keen to venture outside cave, come 2 think of it. :eek:

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Jan 2020 09:16

hundreds of new infections detected nationwide, despite all containment efforts. A handful of news cases have also been reported outside China.
The first death was reported in Shanghai, and another one in Henan province, while thirteen more people died in Hubei province – the epicenter of the outbreak – where nearly 130 people have reportedly been in serious or critical condition as of Sunday morning. In addition to hundreds of known and confirmed cases, some 7,000 people there remain under increased medical supervision due to their potentially dangerous “close contacts.”
Meanwhile, the number of those who had beaten the virus and were discharged from hospitals has increased to at least 85 people, according to authorities.


85 out of how many?

Outside of China, the virus has so far been detected in at least ten states, including the US, France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Vietnam and Singapore. On Saturday, additional infections were reported in Thailand, Australia and Malaysia – as Canada announced the first so-called “presumptive confirmed case” of coronavirus in Toronto. Nearly every confirmed patient had traveled from Wuhan in recent weeks, and most of them are in stable condition.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 27 Jan 2020 00:08

UlanBatori wrote:I also feel that a real BS is when there is one major disaster that has everyone scrambling, when whammo! comes the real catastrophe on top. with it.

.......


The proto Black Swan event-
1755 Lisbon earthquake

This one incident literally wiped out the budding Portuguese empire. Despite their conquest of Brazil, opening up the sea route to India and beyond. A triple whammy- earthquake, fire storm caused by fallen candles in wooden houses and followed by tsunami. Close to 20% of population of Lisbon died and 30%-40% of the GDP was the cost to the economy and ended with the assassination of the king and a new dynasty taking over.

Cask that a Black Swan if you will

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Rsatchi » 27 Jan 2020 00:54

UlanBatori wrote:
Here is a preliminary risk list of BS events imagined so far.
1. (top) WMD event in a major city: either a capital of a major G-7 or BRICS nation, or a top financial center. >50K deaths and 1M hurt.
.

UBji
Barring short of a 'Dirty bum' getting hold of a real deal (even a low yield/tactical device) is not that easy(unless Napak disintegrates and some jihad get hold of a mated-device)
Lets look at the potential cities:
1.Major Khan city/Tokyo/New Delhi/EU city
Unlikely anything in South America or Africa(maybe barring Arab North Africa)
Rest of Asia unlikely and likewise Antipodes
Now groups who could or could attempt:
1.Jihadist groups
2.Uber Whhite Supremist group wanting to start WWIII
3.Red Brigade/Ultraaa Left.
Of the list any Khan city bombing or threat will lead to Middle East disintegration as there would be saturation bombing
Least response would be if Tokyo targetted
Coming to ND, pressure would be immense on the ND government to absorb the hit and forego response from the wider white world!!
Would depend on who is in power at that time.!!
The problem with response would be threat of replication of the 'Original Sin'
The economic impact on Japan or India post 'bum' would be immense
And I doubt there would be plan like 'Marshall Plan' to bail us out
Chini would benefit most from this regardless of either Japan or India targeted.
Would they then fund any group to attempt it?? would be suicidal but may ???? if cornered economically by khan or better still may get their pet poodle to do it!
What could we do to prevent it barring short of strict check of consignments from Napak and every orifice check of visitors it is not possible.
A uber white group getting hold of a device is a more realistic threat as you may be able to find a qualified cranky/crazy/demented yokel
But the real scare would be starting of WWIII
Bit of a Ramble!! sorry for that

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Jan 2020 03:01

Resonates with my fears. Mukeshji, thx for the Lisbon event. Really worth having ppl think about that. Not far-fetched at all even today.

A uber white group getting hold of a device is a more realistic threat as you may be able to find a qualified cranky/crazy/demented yokel


Now that u mention it: new clear maal is available not just in TSP - which I think had all that removed by cheen in 2002, or transferred to KSA which is a greater fear).
It is available in FSU and even in Russia proper.
And in cheen. Plus in NoKo (of course that is == cheen maal).
IMO there is strong danger of US Aryans getting together with Ukrainian Aryans and/or Russian/ Central Asian types and managing to collect and transport enough of it into a major city. Not speculating on where because that may bring vijits from ppl in dark glasses.

We MAY want to start imagining what is a good survival strategy post-BS for such an event. I can't see much hope of salvaging much.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Vikas » 27 Jan 2020 13:14

I think the biggest Black Swan that may hit the world in next 3-4 years is economic crisis & recession. It has been almost 12 years to the last big one and we are ripe for another one in next few years.
WMD maybe a probability but lacks possibility in the short term while fragrance of economic crash has started tingling the nostrils.

Thanks to 'Al', I have Gold somewhere stored with Fed's securely in Fort knox.
I am saved from BS..'Al' be praised.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Jan 2020 20:00

The BS by definition is something that will end the Happy Dins of the stock market - and do much worse.
But I wonder whether Gold is the panacea for a real economic meltdown, if law&order are overthrown. Yugoslavia, esp Bosnia, is a case in point. Ppl all **HAD** to go get their own AK-47s and local goon gangs, and try to protect themselves and families. Same in Syria and Iraq except on an even bigger scale. This is why I say in the first post of this fine and optimistic thread,what a post-BS world looks like: just try seeing out through the eyes of a Syrian or Iraqi. I mean the people who are still "personally OK" which may be a tiny minority by now.

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 27 Jan 2020 20:36

I think the fact that the world economy is under stress is the main thing. Throw in a pandemic or nuclear terrorism or a conflagration in the Middle East and things are really going to go out of control.

Today we are so interconnected that snapping off communication lines will throw back human life by a few decades.

Instead of pondering motivations what would be good but a difficult exercise is if we could challenge the basic assumptions of functioning of our society. What happens if the dollar goes crazy, what happens if we have an oil shock, etc.

The mind boggles at how to even think of these

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Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Jan 2020 21:53

Thanks, Mukeshji. THAT is exactly the purpose of the thread. The spectrum of possibilities is essentially infinite, (esp when one thrown in natural calamities) but it is not true that all we can do is to give up and say: "Bhativyam Bhavet Eva". At least mitigation, hopefully survival, and possibly survival with little long-term damage, are all possible for at least a finite number of those infinite combinations.


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