Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 22 Feb 2020 09:54

sudarshan wrote:

BTW, here's a good resource with numbers and charts (could have been posted before).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -new-cases
.

Yes, of course, this has been posted here many times. Lot of data, articles, arxiv papers too, for those interested in data analysis etc.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 22 Feb 2020 10:02

Gyan wrote:Should we not open a thread about precautions Indian Govt can take or preparation it can make, without breaking the Bank??

Okay, here is my take:
- Wash your hands, as they recommend. Single most effective way in our control.

- If you have not, get Flu Vaccine. There are cases of H1N1 this year and it is not fun. Since this years Flu vaccine is effective against H1N1 - PLEASE get it (even if there are only few months left in this season)

- Early to sleep and good sleep habits (8 hours sleep and try to fall sleep right-away etc) - Time after time, clinical studies leave *no* doubt. If all other things are equal, you are going to reduce your chances of getting sick (your immune system will fight it) by as much as 80%. This looks very unbelievable but there is sufficient data. (Besides it is easy to do)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 22 Feb 2020 11:05

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1231081291828858881
Dr Zhong Nanshan’s team successfully isolated #COVID2019 from urine of patients. Can experts tell us what this means? Another channel for the #coronavirus to spread? Official Chinese report at

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 22 Feb 2020 11:58

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 200222.htm
China 'deliberately delaying' clearance for plane to evacuate Indians: Sources
Source: PTI - Edited By: Hemant Waje February 22, 2020
China is delaying grant of clearance to India's proposal to send an Indian Air Force flight to carry relief material for people affected by coronavirus in the neighbouring country and bring back Indians from its city of Wuhan, official sources said Saturday.
India was to send a C-17 military transport aircraft to Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, on February 20 but the plane could not take off as permission was not granted for the flight. "China is deliberately delaying grant of clearance for the evacuation flight," a high-level source said.
The aircraft was to carry a large consignment of medical supplies to China and bring back more Indians from Wuhan.
Sources said the Chinese side continued to maintain that there was no delay in granting permission for the flight to go, but "inexplicably" the clearance has not been given. In a letter to President Xi Jinping earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed India's solidarity to the people and government of China in meeting the challenge of the coronavirus outbreak and offered to provide assistance to the country.
....
Reaction to Trump's visit?
______________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.rediff.com/news/report/coro ... 200222.htm
China's coronavirus death toll crosses 2300, WHO team to visit Wuhan
By K J M Varma February 22, 2020

The death toll in China's novel coronavirus climbed to 2,345 with 109 more deaths reported, while the confirmed cases rose to 76,288 as a team of World Health Organisation experts, currently in the country to investigate the COVID-19 outbreak, is expected to visit the worst-affected Wuhan city on Saturday, Chinese health officials said. A total of 397 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported on Friday, while 109 deaths were reported from 31 provincial-level regions, Chinese health authority said on Saturday. By the end of Friday, a total of 2,345 people died of the disease and 76,288 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection had been reported from all over the country, a daily report from the National Health Commission (NHC) said on Saturday.
Among the deaths, 106 were from the Hubei Province, the epicentre of the virus, one each from Hebei province, Shanghai and Xinjiang, it said.
Hubei Province reported 366 new confirmed cases and 106 new deaths on Friday, the provincial health commission said Saturday.
The latest report brought the total confirmed cases in the hard-hit province to 63,454, it said.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 22 Feb 2020 12:54

xposted from PRC dekhonomoney thread:

The ongoing Coronavisus crisis has the potential to generate a 2008-09 like economic crisis. This is because of the enforced lockdown of the Chinese economy. Approximately 750 million people are on lockdown. Car sales are down to approx 800 a day, down 95% . There's probably more cars sold in TSP than PRC now. Their estimated Feb PMI is 28-30 . That's right, THIRTY. PMI typically oscillates around 48-52, a number above 50 indicating expansion. PMI of 45 is a very bad number. 30 is basically 'someone turned off the lights'. About $300 billion in Chinese muni loans come due in 2020, but cities are shut, people are not getting paid, and revenues are down dramatically.

Right now, it's a question of whether a vaccine is identified and mass produced as quickly as possible.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 22 Feb 2020 12:57

Federal judge grants temporary restraining order halting US government plan to transport 35-50 #coronavirus patients from Travis Air Force Base to Fairview Developmental Center in Costa Mesa as soon as this weekend. City was blindsided and sued.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 22 Feb 2020 13:02

“Seoul is no longer a safe zone.”
@Seoul_gov
on Friday said three major public plazas are being closed to the public to prevent the spread of the #coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kumarn » 22 Feb 2020 13:51


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 22 Feb 2020 14:13

Samsung will shut down its Gumi smartphone plant in S. Korea till Monday morning after an employee was confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. This may delay some production of Galaxy Z Flip, S20s. Hope everybody stays safe.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 22 Feb 2020 14:14

87 more cases of Coronavirus discovered in Korea

The total number of cases in Korea is now 433

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 22 Feb 2020 14:18

Per a NYT article, it seems like Iran may be the new vector for Coronavirus. Speculation is that, there are plenty of Chinese workers near Iranian city of Qom. Perhaps to show sideness with Chinese, Iranian officials never restricted movement from China.

The first Coronavirus case in Lebanon is linked to Iran...I think there is not much movement between India & Iran, but GoI would be wise to place restrictions on passengers movement in & from Iran...mainly considering that due to sanctions, Iranian healthcare status may not be able to tackle & control the spread of infections.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sicanta » 22 Feb 2020 15:32

Aditya raj kaul- Cabinet Secretary chairs high level review meeting on #COVID19.
Indian Citizens advised to avoid all non-essential travel to Singapore. Total 10 countries with universal screening: China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Nepal, Indonesia,Vietnam & Malaysia. https://t.co/wXTW3WMths

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 22 Feb 2020 21:17

Watch out for Iran

The Iranian Govt has acknowledged that they have no idea where to look anymore.

-----
Chinese coronavirus patient reinfected 10 days after leaving hospital
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3879345

Some people are claiming that incubation period maybe more than a month in certain people. Imo, this is a dormant virus - Google "virus latency". Some can stay for years. Some can stay dormant forever.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 22 Feb 2020 22:33

kumarn wrote:https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-facade-of-stability-11582156842

Another hard hitting oped from wsj.

That is behind the paywall. But I found this which looks like badly botched 'translation' of the same article.


Link

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 22 Feb 2020 23:05

Sicanta wrote:Aditya raj kaul- Cabinet Secretary chairs high level review meeting on #COVID19.
Indian Citizens advised to avoid all non-essential travel to Singapore. Total 10 countries with universal screening: China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Nepal, Indonesia,Vietnam & Malaysia. https://t.co/wXTW3WMths


Middle Eastern airlines are still flying to china. we have to watch out for air traffic from this region.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby RohitH » 22 Feb 2020 23:09

sudarshan wrote:You know, like UB ji said above, they might be making things way worse with those forced quarantines, especially the ones where they weld apartment doors shut or force families into refrigerator-sized cartons. Or like that cruise ship.


IMO, this seems more like desi katta getting misfired ( anyone familiar with villages around river chambal in MP will get the analogy). When a entrepreneurial guy, in our village back home, accidentally gets shot by his own fancy creation he is rushed to local doctor's clinic for midnight treatment without involving the police. For last several years Chinese have been passionate about gene editing.We have been getting news about Chinese scientists making designer babies to upgrade population's IQ and looks to satisfy local demand for best baby ( CRISPER babies ). https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui .This whole gene editing exercise went horribly wrong and then policeman Xi found out. He figured the gravity of the situation and clamped down ( a la dhara 144 ). Being a dumb policeman but with huge danda, he obviously didn't know that welding the apartments will make things worse.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 22 Feb 2020 23:33

Zynda wrote:Per a NYT article, it seems like Iran may be the new vector for Coronavirus. Speculation is that, there are plenty of Chinese workers near Iranian city of Qom. Perhaps to show sideness with Chinese, Iranian officials never restricted movement from China.

The first Coronavirus case in Lebanon is linked to Iran...I think there is not much movement between India & Iran, but GoI would be wise to place restrictions on passengers movement in & from Iran...mainly considering that due to sanctions, Iranian healthcare status may not be able to tackle & control the spread of infections.


Lots of Shia travel to Iran for pilgrimages.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 23:50

Wow! A whole new CT: Saatchiji, pls send to Ms. Barbara Broccoli. I know her father is/was Albert B., but is her Mom by any chance Barbara Bach of From Russia With Love, and Force Ten From Navarone? :shock: ? The new CT is in her Honor and Dignity

Eleven had it made, special editionit for use in the Rooh Afza distributed free in Xinjiang: new relaxed travel regulations for all-expenses-paid trips to ***ca. Finar Sorution to sprittists. Note there are reports of deaths in Tibet as well. Rong wei from WooHan.
Imagine if it had "worked" as planned. :eek:

But Agint 010, sent by MI-6 Minister Abdul bin Brixton, found out. As he and his sex interest Agint Duo Gams were racing out of the lab skipping over vendors in the Wet Market, some of the stuff splashed on their pursuer Dr. XXXXX. Rest is history. Sad to say, Duo Gams wll never jiggle again. But the "disaster" that was averted...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kit » 23 Feb 2020 00:15

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14/russia-blame-america-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-disinformation/


The overarching theme of the stories that appear across the Russian media, from fringe websites to prime-time television, is that the virus is the product of U.S. labs, intended to kneecap China’s economic development. Some articles have flirted with the idea that Bill Gates or Kremlin nemesis George Soros might have had a hand in the outbreak. In one of the more bizarre turns, a host on Russia’s state-funded Channel 1 floated the idea that the name “coronavirus,” is a veiled reference to its American origins, because U.S. President Donald Trump once handed out crowns at beauty pageants, and corona means crown in Latin.

Russia is certainly not alone in promulgating conspiracy theories about the virus. “At the WHO we’re not just battling the virus, we’re also battling the trolls and conspiracy theories that undermine our response,” said World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. But in Russia these theories are appearing on prominent mainstream news discussion shows such as Big Game and Time Will Tell on Channel 1, rather than just being confined to squalid corners of the internet. In late January, the firebrand leader of the far-right Liberal Democratic Party of Russia party told a Moscow radio station that he thought coronavirus was an American bioweapon or a big plot by pharmaceutical companies to get richer.

Yet while the Russian media has speculated wildly about the virus, the Russian government has taken the threat seriously, closing its land borders with China and checking the temperatures of reporters and officials at events attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Two people in Russia were diagnosed with the virus, having contracted it on trips to China, but they are reported to have since recovered. While disinformation doesn’t appear to have hamstrung Russia’s response to the virus, the lasting danger may be in its continued erosion of trust in the notion of truth itself.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 23 Feb 2020 00:51

About these conspiracy theories - some comments.
Many leaders and recognized experts are quite worried about the harm this misinformation and fake news is causing.
Many, who generally keep quiet, have taken to media (and also social media) to debunk a rumor being circulated that the coronavirus is a germ that escaped from a secret Chinese bio-weapons lab was created by gene editing etc.. Based on the virus genome and properties there is no indication whatsoever that it was an engineered virus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 23 Feb 2020 02:17

Amber G. wrote:About these conspiracy theories - some comments.
Many leaders and recognized experts are quite worried about the harm this misinformation and fake news is causing.
Many, who generally keep quiet, have taken to media (and also social media) to debunk a rumor being circulated that the coronavirus is a germ that escaped from a secret Chinese bio-weapons lab was created by gene editing etc.. Based on the virus genome and properties there is no indication whatsoever that it was an engineered virus.


fwif, a Chinese colleague who is a very well adjusted, thoroughly competent engineer is convinced that this was an engineered virus. I didnt have the heart to try to convince him otherwise.. considering what they are going through. Another Chinese colleague is mad at how its being handled.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 23 Feb 2020 02:27

From a discussion group

Everything that was called as CT were proven truth starting from Malegaon, purohit, 26/11, Mrs.Tharoor was just escort lady and now this Corono virus too.


I would ask Forum elders to stop shutting discussion by labeling CT at first sign of dissonance.
Forum did a disservice in the lost decade branding CT and stopping discussion.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 23 Feb 2020 02:58

twitter


About 60% of newly emerged & re-emerging pathogens share a common origin: #animals. When we cut down the forests where they live, they roost in our backyards & farms instead.


Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby BSR Murthy » 23 Feb 2020 03:13

Intermediate host for COVID-19 is thought to be Pangolins - an ant eater like scaly mammal.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 23 Feb 2020 03:38

BSR Murthy wrote:Intermediate host for COVID-19 is thought to be Pangolins - an ant eater like scaly mammal.



Snakes, Bats Or Pangolins: Why It Is Necessary To Find The Source Of The Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak

https://swarajyamag.com/science/snakes- ... s-outbreak

here is the snippet about pangolians. please do consider subscribing to swarajya


Where did pangolins come into focus?

This claim was first published by South China Agricultural University, in their website.

The webpage was titled Chinese epidemic war: Pangolin is found as a potential intermediate host of new coronavirus in South China Agricultural University.

Till Thursday (20 February 2020), the paper wasn’t released.

Can pangolins really be a cause?

The reason I am doubtful of this “pangolin” claim is because –

· The research article hasn’t been published yet, but the press statement has already been released. Hence, there are very high chances that the CCP are using these to hide something which, if it is revealed, will be a big disgrace in front of everyone in the world.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 23 Feb 2020 03:39

Atmavik wrote:
sudarshan wrote:
Eating everything which moves and having *** with everything which moves are both bad ideas for this reason. Chinis are into the former, Pakis into the latter :-? .


you had to throw in the last line didnt you :lol: plisss do pray for the donkeys of badin tonight.


See, a virus outbreak can very well happen because of the latter "pastime" also, it's an exchange of bodily fluids after all. Bats seem to be the worst, I can't imagine the logistics of a human actually "loving" a bat, but leave it to the Pakis to figure that one out. We might well hear of coronavirus outbreaks from Pakistan in the future. They already shower love and affection on their poor blind female Indus dolphins.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Feb 2020 04:18

^^Explains the Mermaid legends. :eek:
But I too think the origin is moot at this point: 2600+ people are dead, and many of those who recover have organ damage. This thing is deadly. Deciding whether it was Bhavitavyam Bhavet Eva or Internal Genocide or External WMD Attack War Crime etc is for other people. The main concern at this point seems to be whether the infection OUTSIDE China can be kept from exponential growth until (I don't know until what - there is no defense identified).

If there is any evidence-supported gyan on WTH 2 do 2 a) avert and b) cure, I would appreciate knowing it.
********************************************************************************

I am trying to see what happens if you add a time lag to the death rate in data analysis. IOW, it takes 14 days to incubate after the boogers set up camp initially, before they go into exponential rise and the bacterial infections show up a symptoms. Many of those tested positive, had noooo symptoms at all. **THEN** the person goes to hospital and gets tested, so it is at least 17 days after infection, that a case is Laboratory Confirmed - the criterion per CDC for a Case to be counted. This was the confusion between Feb. 13 and 16, and a "sudden jump in cases" was reported (and blamed on Communist Repression :roll: ). This is from See De See, so 400% halal.

So!
1) A patient turns critical and dies... maybe 20 days or more after infection. Maybe 27 to 30 days if there is battle for survival in the hospital. Ppl don't die because the virus eats them: they die because of "organ failure": heart stops struggling to keep lungs going, no oxygen reaching brain, other organs fail.
2) A patient cannot be declared "recovered" until at least 30 days after infection, maybe 40. But after that, why keep that patient on the list to decide future evolution of the fatality percentage? (This I have not figured out)

How to incorporate this gyan is the question. People doing grand comparisons of "fatality rate" of a 6-month to 1-year event, 5 years after the event, just look at Total Cases Reported, and Total Dead. And say, ah! 0.01% died. Or whatever.

What is the right formula to use right now? Cumulative Dead / (Cumulative Cases As of 14 din pehle)?
Haven't got this clear in UBCN Madarssa Algorithm Clarity Dept.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 23 Feb 2020 07:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 23 Feb 2020 04:56

nvishal wrote:Watch out for Iran

The Iranian Govt has acknowledged that they have no idea where to look anymore.

-----
Chinese coronavirus patient reinfected 10 days after leaving hospital
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3879345

Some people are claiming that incubation period maybe more than a month in certain people. Imo, this is a dormant virus - Google "virus latency". Some can stay for years. Some can stay dormant forever.



Like shingles. Wow.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Haridas » 23 Feb 2020 05:42

ramana wrote:From a discussion group

Everything that was called as CT were proven truth starting from Malegaon, purohit, 26/11, Mrs.Tharoor was just escort lady and now this Corono virus too.


I would ask Forum elders to stop shutting discussion by labeling CT at first sign of dissonance.
Forum did a disservice in the lost decade branding CT and stopping discussion.

Absolutely! Time to introspect, open the mind of possibilities and tide over cognitive dissonance.

Big players need bigger cognitive canvas.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 23 Feb 2020 06:14

Amber G. wrote:
Gyan wrote:Should we not open a thread about precautions Indian Govt can take or preparation it can make, without breaking the Bank??

Okay, here is my take:
- Wash your hands, as they recommend. Single most effective way in our control.

- If you have not, get Flu Vaccine. There are cases of H1N1 this year and it is not fun. Since this years Flu vaccine is effective against H1N1 - PLEASE get it (even if there are only few months left in this season)

- Early to sleep and good sleep habits (8 hours sleep and try to fall sleep right-away etc) - Time after time, clinical studies leave *no* doubt. If all other things are equal, you are going to reduce your chances of getting sick (your immune system will fight it) by as much as 80%. This looks very unbelievable but there is sufficient data. (Besides it is easy to do)


Ill only add moderate exercise (not the time to start a Big NEW exercise program..) and Vitamin D supplementation, especially for darker skinned Indians living in a latitude north of where they were born or if you have little Sun exposure.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Feb 2020 07:26

Does flu vaccine save one from SARS? Seems like the present asuravatar is an improvement on SARS, per some (CTs). This is the one aspect where any amount of expert posts will I hope keep coming: APji? Skji? Any others? I have noooo idea how one determines these things.
BTW, what exactly IS a virus, vs. "atom", "molecule", "cell", "bacterium"? How can ppl isolate and "see" a single virus? How many molecules are present in an nCOV or SARS?
What exactly is a "gene sequence" as in "PeeAllSee mullahs announced the gene sequence of the nCOV on Jan. 12 for worldwide mullahs"? That sounds AMAZINGLY fast to me! How can they do it so fast? They don't have to count molecules like 1,2,..... 23303, 23304.. ? No checking structure against a Wanted Poster stuck on the wall like the LIGO charlies watching signatures between burger-munchings in the middle of the night?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Feb 2020 07:44

BTW, for all those who have all the data at their fingertips etc etc: See what happens if you use the simple fact that death is time-lagged 14 days or more from infection, even Case detection. Preliminary answer: Death rate was 128% of Reported Cases. IOW, many were just found dead, others died very fast. The thing is ABSOLUTELY DEADLY, emphasis on the DEAD. They have managed to get the death rate down to like 6% now - maybe because many more are identified as Cases before they become critical and are gasping for breath.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 23 Feb 2020 09:42

UlanBatori wrote:BTW, for all those who have all the data at their fingertips etc etc: See what happens if you use the simple fact that death is time-lagged 14 days or more from infection, even Case detection. Preliminary answer: Death rate was 128% of Reported Cases. IOW, many were just found dead, others died very fast. The thing is ABSOLUTELY DEADLY, emphasis on the DEAD. They have managed to get the death rate down to like 6% now - maybe because many more are identified as Cases before they become critical and are gasping for breath.


How can death rate be more than the reported cases? Early in an epidemic, death rates tend to be higher as only the most severe cases are identified and tracked. Its better to track the cases in Japan and Singapore which have good quality data. Ofcourse, if your facilities are so overwhelmed that you need to put together a hospital in 10 days, death rates will likely go up because people will not get the care they need.

Yes, this thing is deadly.. especially to older people or those who may have some other preexisting disease. More importantly, its just the right amount of deadly.. Not so deadly that itll die out on its own, not so trivial that the sickness can be shrugged off.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 23 Feb 2020 09:52

Sanger won the nobull prize for sequencing proteins and then another nobull for DNA sequencing methodology. This was in the 1960s for the former and late 1970 for the latter. An entire human genome can currently be sequenced in 24 hrs.

I am not sure if mass spec has been found useful for a stochastic approach to sequencing but I don’t think so. That could make sequencing faster still.


Viruses are essentially single or double stranded DNA or RNA that encode the genes to replicate the sequence with the use of the cellular mechanisms for replication, transcription and protein translation. Viral enzymes may be unique and may be amenable to discrimination in the sense of selectivity, making some viruses inhibitable by nucleotide analogs, eg HIV, Hepatitis C, herpes. Also there are often gene sequences encoding protein coat components. As viruses do not generate energy autonomously eg ATP through metabolic processes, they fail a crucial traditional test for life. Thus viruses are the ultimate parasites. The function of the universe is to evolve viruses, not philosophers.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vishvak » 23 Feb 2020 10:07

Time to close gates at Wagah borders and shoot to kill at all terrorists coming from land of purely loving animals on all sides.
Last edited by vishvak on 23 Feb 2020 11:26, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 23 Feb 2020 10:12

UlanBatori wrote:BTW, for all those who have all the data at their fingertips etc etc: See what happens if you use the simple fact that death is time-lagged 14 days or more from infection, even Case detection. Preliminary answer: Death rate was 128% of Reported Cases. IOW, many were just found dead, others died very fast. The thing is ABSOLUTELY DEADLY, emphasis on the DEAD. They have managed to get the death rate down to like 6% now - maybe because many more are identified as Cases before they become critical and are gasping for breath.


The question is always the amount of time lag that should be used. If as UB suggests we use 14 then it is 100%+ deadly... however the denominator in total cases fails to catch those who have the infection but were not identified. If we use 0 days then it is <1% ... during the initial stages of a pandemic it is difficult to say what lag time to use. better way is to track deaths as a function of days. The real issue may be that it is the very young or the near non symptomatic folks like young kids and adults who may have the infection with nothing more than a sore throat who may infect the most vulnerable of folks such as their grand parents etc.

What is the actual lag time being suggested?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Here it tracks total cases with date and total deaths with date... at different lag time we can come up with different fatality rates

For example on Jan 25th total cases were 2065, On Feb 4th (lag time of 10days) Total deaths were 492 fatality rate is a staggering 25%, using UB method of 14days then checking Feb 8th deaths are ~813 fatality is rising to 40%, change lag time to 20 days Checking Feb 14th we see 1526 deaths so fatality rate is 70%.

But Jan 25th is too early.... let us take Feb 5th cases: 28266, Feb 15th (10day lag) : deaths 1669 which is only 6%, UB lag time of 14 days (2126) which is around 7.5% taking lag time as 20 days 25th feb (extrapolating curve) 2800 deaths expected: fatality rate is 10%
Last edited by tandav on 23 Feb 2020 10:30, edited 1 time in total.

ricky_v
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 23 Feb 2020 10:29

Image

tandav
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 23 Feb 2020 10:41

Basically this pandemic will selectively kill old folks and leave only the productive population standing. Basically a lesson for the rest of us... do not expect to live very long and enjoy the wealth you saved up in your youth, unless you save up/fortify your health, at any time some entity can unleash a biological weapon on you that will prey on your weakened immune system and no amount of money will help you then.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 23 Feb 2020 10:51

123 new cases of Coronavirus in Korea

There are now 556 total cases in Korea

There have been 4 Coronavirus related deaths

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 23 Feb 2020 10:54

#Italy quarantines 50,000 people, as the number of #coronavirus cases rises to at least 79 with 2 dead.

Authorities fear that the virus has already spread beyond the isolated areas, making it difficult to contain.Flushed face


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