Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 12 Mar 2020 08:12

vera_k wrote:FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affected it was far less than us middle aged folks. There was minimal runny nose - we usually go through boxes of Kleenex, but not for this one.

Same experience from Bay area. Severe body ache, mild fever, severe fatigue, no runny nose, mild throat swell..

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Mar 2020 08:14

Mort Walker wrote:

From what I understand the testing will be done by local municipal/county health depts. Results could take up to 4 days. The question is, are they using a PCR method for testing or is it looking for the pathogen like various flu swab tests?

From Doctors in the Bay area - who got their patient finally getting tested: Depending on symptoms etc..

- Throat swabs one for Flu, and other for COVID-19 (Flu results come out pretty soon, COVID-19 takes about 4 days)
- Chest Xray (CT Scan)
- Other tests (Liver functions and such)
etc..
And yes it is RT-PCR type test. Quite a few companies started making it, they differ from what I know.
(As most will tell you, the problem was not so much technical, it is red tape - needed okay from right "health dept" etc)

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 12 Mar 2020 08:14

Amber G. wrote:About Temperature thing:
Jury is still out - We don't even know if CV will behave like other corona virus and we don't know much about other types in any case.

From what I have read/heard etc - there is no (or very little) evidence that temperature has much effect once you become sick.

I do see, (and others are seeing this too) strong correlation - how fast it spreads. For example doubling time is about 4 days for Europe (colder places) it is much higher ( about 21 days).. It is difficult to analyze the data as we have to filter the data according to "where caught" .. As data is sparse -- even I am not taking it that seriously but posting here in brf -- I am keeping my eyes open if there are papers or study on this.

Kerala will be the test case for this. If it takes off in Kerala.. watch out! There wont be any respite for Northern latitudes even in Summer.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Mar 2020 08:17

^^^Agree. Test kits should have been available in the US in large numbers in early Feb. when people were evacuated from SoKo and China. I suspect there was in-fighting going on as there is money to be made on this along with intergovernmental turf wars.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Mar 2020 08:43

sudeepj wrote:
Amber G. wrote:About Temperature thing:
Jury is still out - We don't even know if CV will behave like other corona virus and we don't know much about other types in any case.

From what I have read/heard etc - there is no (or very little) evidence that temperature has much effect once you become sick.

I do see, (and others are seeing this too) strong correlation - how fast it spreads. For example doubling time is about 4 days for Europe (colder places) it is much higher ( about 21 days).. It is difficult to analyze the data as we have to filter the data according to "where caught" .. As data is sparse -- even I am not taking it that seriously but posting here in brf -- I am keeping my eyes open if there are papers or study on this.
Kerala will be the test case for this. If it takes off in Kerala.. watch out! There wont be any respite for Northern latitudes even in Summer.

^^^ Precisely! Point is to measure "community spreading" by counting the infection where "one got it".. not always easy tp mine that data from all other data. Kerala cases (originally coming from Wuhan) did not "grow".. but that can be attributed to excellent quarantine system in Kerala. *all* new cases in India came from outside. I am looking at the rate of spreading. Encouraging part is 700+ coming from Wuhan, 100's other from cruise ship, there is definite correlation there (it is worse in Japan vs India etc) ..
As you say we will see. either way ... if we go a few weeks without major outbreak it will be great and we will know.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Mar 2020 09:21

The next two weeks of March 2020 are going to be the two most important weeks in contemporary history.

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Mar 2020 09:48

How come India has a turnaround time of 4 hours (per Dr Harsha Vardan) but USA needs 4 DAYS for the results?If India can get the labs going so fast why can't the USA?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 12 Mar 2020 09:54

It is in fact not necessary to test for this virus except for epidemiological purposes. The reason should be obvious.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 12 Mar 2020 10:11

nvishal wrote:Some people who have returned to india via a layover at doha/dubai airports have tested positive. Strange cases.

Qatar just reported a 300+ rise in cases in one day, up from some ~25 a day earlier.

Avoid these two airports.

Man don't scare the shit out of me. My Emirates flight from Bengaluru this Sunday is Via Dubai en route to Dallas. I just read that USA has banned flights from Europe, not Dubai and Doha. But that can change by the hour. The f!king Emirates lines are really busy. Not one attempt of mine to get through succeeded. Last night, I gave up after holding on for 50 minutes.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 12 Mar 2020 10:17

The scare is getting to me. A somewhat funny episode yesterday. Went to a grocery store to get some milk. And as I was entering the store inhaled some dust that got me coughing. This scared the living daylights out of me. Was coughing for about 30-40 secsonds. I thought man, I got it. I even did not want to get back into the car with my tenant's son who was driving. I started sweating profusely, almost had an anxiety attack. Until my throat cleared after a few minutes

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 Mar 2020 10:23

I personally think that IPL should be cancelled now.
With Covid-19 storm going to grow with everyday, What sense does it make to allow thousands of sweating people assembled in one place across cities and have a full blown doomsday staring at our face.
What exactly is BCCI or even GOI waiting for ? Some Rahukalam before shelving IPL.
Like someone said, Panic is better than indifference.
Yes, there is money involved but imagine thousands of potentially infected people after every game.
I expect number to go up drastically in Pakistan by the time PSL wraps up.

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Mar 2020 10:36

Can have games without spectators. People can watch on TV at home.

komal · Post by **komal** » 12 Mar 2020 10:42

sanjaykumar wrote:It is in fact not necessary to test for this virus except for epidemiological purposes. The reason should be obvious.

Am not sharpest knife in the drawer -- why is not necessary to test? Thanks.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 12 Mar 2020 11:16

Melbourne Cricket Ground management says a person who attended India-Australia Women's T20 World Cup Final on March 8 diagnosed with COVID-19.

No foreign player available for IPL till April 15 due to visa restrictions imposed by government in wake of COVID-19 outbreak: BCCI source.

Actor Tom Hanks says he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus.

Netherlands reports 121 new cases of coronavirus and 1 new death, raising total to 503 cases and 5 dead.

16 new cases in Brazil. Total goes to 68.

Spain reports 372 new cases of coronavirus and 11 new deaths, raising total to 2,067 cases and 47 dead.

Saudi Arabia reports 24 new cases of coronavirus, more than doubling the country's total to 45 cases.

Italy reported 2,313 new cases of coronavirus over the past 24 hours and 196 new deaths, raising the total to 12,462 cases and 827 dead.

Trump cancels upcoming events in Colorado and Nevada due to coronavirus outbreak - NBC.

83 Air India passengers from Italy including 74 Indian nationals, quarantined at the Indian Army facility at Manesar.

There are only six states remaining that don't have a confirmed case of coronavirus: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Alabama, West Virginia and Maine.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Mar 2020 11:17

Meanwhile: Nice article about how long the virus survives on various surfaces..(National Institute of Health paper)

Tests show new virus lives on some surfaces for up to 3 days

The new coronavirus can live in the air for several hours and on some surfaces for as long as two to three days, tests by U.S. government and other scientists have found.

Their work, published Wednesday, suggests people can get infected through the air as well as from touching things that were contaminated by others who have it, in addition to direct person-to-person contact.

Since emerging in China late last year, the new virus has infected more than 120,000 people worldwide and caused more than 4,300 deaths -- far more than the 2003 SARS outbreak caused by a genetically similar virus.

For this study, researchers used a nebulizer device to put samples of the new virus into the air, imitating what might happen if an infected person coughed or made the virus airborne some other way.

They found that viable virus could be detected up to three hours later in the air, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

Similar results were obtained from tests they did on the virus that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, so differences in durability of the viruses do not account for how much more widely the new one has spread, researchers say.

The tests were done by scientists from the National Institutes of Health, Princeton University and the University of California, Los Angeles, with funding from the U.S. government and the National Science Foundation.

The findings have not been reviewed by other scientists yet and were posted on a site where researchers can quickly share their work before publication.

“It’s a solid piece of work that answers questions people have been asking,” and shows the value and importance of the hygiene advice that public health officials have been stressing, said Julie Fischer, a microbiology professor at Georgetown University.

“What we need to be doing is washing our hands, being aware that people who are infected may be contaminating surfaces,” and keeping hands away from the face, she said.

___

from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 12 Mar 2020 11:26

komal wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:It is in fact not necessary to test for this virus except for epidemiological purposes. The reason should be obvious.
Am not sharpest knife in the drawer -- why is not necessary to test? Thanks.

Since there are no medicines for it, you either die or you recover.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Mar 2020 11:36

saip wrote:How come India has a turnaround time of 4 hours (per Dr Harsha Vardan) but USA needs 4 DAYS for the results?If India can get the labs going so fast why can't the USA?

Turn around time, varies. In US most likely it is swab for RT PCR ..hour or two but red tape is a big cause here in us.
(Per One NY City doctor - they are still having lot of difficulty - unless you have phenomena , in high risk group and have come in contact -- there is a long wait -- QUEST can run the test in few hours but the samples have to be sent to California and has turn around time of 4 days).

There are anti-body tests (blood sample) takes around similar time.
There are Rapid tests for both methods by some companies ( in other countries) which take time of the order of minutes.. I think more than technology it is process and what tests are approved.

Good example is South Korea, which is running close to 20,000 tests per day! (They are testing all suspected cases).

Running test, just to rule out CV is worth it for many obvious reasons. US is going to do this but it is lagging behind other nations.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 12 Mar 2020 11:42

Cain Marko wrote:Just an FYI - for folks who might be interested based on personal experience with seasonal flu etc.
- Manuka honey is really useful - even during the infection. mixed in with turmeric and cinnamon - 50:25:25
- Homeopathic Arsenicum Album is highly recommended
- Vaidya from desh tells us that Giloy + Tulsi + Neem (Arogya vati by Patanjali) should be helpful to the immune system
- Using ghee or coconut to line your nasal membranes can be very effective in preventing airborne diseases

Cain, I was just forwarded a whatspp video by India's "Millet Man", Dr. Khadar Wali. He promotes the consumption of Millets instead of rice and wheat as a way to prevent coronary heart diseases and diabetes among others.

He is also a Homeopathic doctor. In the video he suggested the following if I can decipher right: Brionia 200 and Restox 200, 3 pills of each twice a day with half cup of water for 3 days.

I am not a big Homeopathic buff, but question I have is whether Homeopathic medicines have any side effects. The point being whether or not it has any prevention efficacy that Dr. Wali claims, taking those pills, total of 36 pills in 3 days sounds like a lot. Will it screw you up?

This reminds me of an anecdote attributed to Albert Einstein. Apparently when he moved to a new office, his colleague saw a superstitious sign in his new office, and was aghast and asked Einstein if he believes in superstitions. To which Eisenstein is said to have replied, look, I did not put any effort putting up that sign, it was already there when I moved in, and so I thought if it brings me good luck, why would I prevent it

.

Likewise, if the Homeopathic medicine will help prevent Corona virus from attacking, why not take it? Of course, in my case there would be some effort to go and get the medicine, but maybe its worth it. Of course, it will be disaster if there are any adverse side effects, and hence asking.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Mar 2020 11:47

hanumadu wrote: Since there are no medicines for it, you either die or you recover.

That's not accurate, IMO . China, and Korea particularly have tried many things and there are a few (at least two) medicines have shown great potential. Both have gone through level 1 and 2 trials and blind trials are running.. I may put more details here later if there is interest.

But seriously, as we all know in many/most viral cases there are no medicines in technical sense. (most cold, Flu run their courses etc) but we can give supportive care which is helpful. Things like lots of fluids, plenty of rest etc makes the recovery fast or life less miserable.

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 12 Mar 2020 11:57

“Problems in medicine do not mean that homeopathic sugar pills work; just because there are problems with aircraft design, that doesn't mean that magic carpets really fly.”
― Ben Goldacre

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Mar 2020 11:58

CRamS wrote:Cain, I was just forwarded a whatspp video by India's "Millet Man", Dr. Khadar Wali. He promotes the consumption of Millets instead of rice and wheat as a way to prevent coronary heart diseases and diabetes among others.

He is also a Homeopathic doctor. In the video he suggested the following if I can decipher right: Brionia 200 and Restox 200, 3 pills of each twice a day with half cup of water for 3 days.

I am not a big Homeopathic buff, but question I have is whether Homeopathic medicines have any side effects. The point being whether or not it has any prevention efficacy that Dr. Wali claims, taking those pills, total of 36 pills in 3 days sounds like a lot. Will it screw you up?

This reminds me of an anecdote attributed to Albert Einstein. Apparently when he moved to a new office, his colleague saw a superstitious sign in his new office, and was aghast and asked Einstein if he believes in superstitions. To which Eisenstein is said to have replied, look, I did not put any effort putting up that sign, it was already there when I moved in, and so I thought if it brings me good luck, why would I prevent it .

Likewise, if the Homeopathic medicine will help prevent Corona virus from attacking, why not take it? Of course, in my case there would be some effort to go and get the medicine, but maybe its worth it. Of course, it will be disaster if there are any adverse side effects, and hence asking.

Tbh CRS, I don't have any experience with arsenicum album yet. I'll try it in a day or so. The damned health food store has run out! But I know some people who have tried it for the first time, and they seem to be fine do far. My family has taken homeopathic stuff occasionally and there were no side effects that I could tell.
One thing though, their pills go down a lot easier

Since you're in desh, you could easily talk to doctors there who might tell you how to go about it.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Mar 2020 12:02

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 12 Mar 2020 12:46

I went to the local Costco store to get toilet paper as I have run out. Their entire stock of toilet paper, kitchen towels and paper napkins are all sold out due to CV panic buying. My friend tells me that people are buying bottled water, hand sanitizers and rice too like crazy to stock up for disruptions. Back in the good old days in Poland, which did not have easy access to TP, I used the Trybuna Ludu, the communist newspaper for Pakistani purposes. If things go bad, I will have to find an appropriate newspaper in the US.
Gautam

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 12 Mar 2020 12:52

Try ordering it on amazon.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Mar 2020 13:00

]Gautumji -This might help

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 12 Mar 2020 13:00

Try ordering it on amazon.
I got some from Walmart. I hope Costco will be stocked soon, I am used to their brand for years. There is no real shortage, just panic. People are expecting a lock down I guess.
Gautam

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 Mar 2020 13:02

^^^
Install this:

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 12 Mar 2020 13:02

Amber G. wrote:]Gautumji -This might help

Thanks Boss.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 12 Mar 2020 13:49

Genuinely confused as to what precautions to take. I am from Pune, which is sort of turning out to be the epicenter of COVID-19 resurgence with 2 index cases, who were not in focus for atleast 10 days before being tested.
Washing my hands, making the family do the same.
Avoiding public transport, including cabs for now. My workplace has valet parking (A fancy word for officially indulging in parking tetris), which too I am trying avoid since the same guy parks everybody else's cars. The little one (not yet 1.5 years old), takes a merry stroll in the apartment premises every evening, waving at people and playing with other kids, not sure whether we need to place a curb on that.
Not going to visit Malls (which is a very rare thing anyway), or closed crowded places. Parks and gardens should be okay?
The domestic help visit multiple households with varying degrees of precautions taken, but cannot be avoided.
Can work from home, but is frowned upon in the organisation. So its office for now. 1 case reported to be found in a common office complex housing where some of our staff is also located.
Definitely going to a homeopath this weekend to stock up on cough cold pills, especially since it will be sans any side effects.
Any other things that learned gentle rakshaks might suggest ?

sinha · Post by **sinha** » 12 Mar 2020 14:02

This data driven analysis made a lot of sense - unfortunately the author has missed India - which I am trying to add

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

The Model is available for trying out - should suggest when should you close shop!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... &sle=true#

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 12 Mar 2020 14:13

How will the food supply chain hold up as lock downs become more stringent? People can stop going to school and stop going to work, but some body must continue to produce food and transport it around. How are they going to social distance themselves? If they do, what will happen to the rest of the society? Frankly I hope a large number of head to toe body suits, tens of millions of them, are being manufactured and made available to critical workers so they can continue to work without fear.

chola · Post by **chola** » 12 Mar 2020 15:06

g.sarkar wrote:I went to the local Costco store to get toilet paper as I have run out. Their entire stock of toilet paper, kitchen towels and paper napkins are all sold out due to CV panic buying. My friend tells me that people are buying bottled water, hand sanitizers and rice too like crazy to stock up for disruptions. Back in the good old days in Poland, which did not have easy access to TP, I used the Trybuna Ludu, the communist newspaper for Pakistani purposes. If things go bad, I will have to find an appropriate newspaper in the US.
Gautam

Same with my local Costco. The panic-buying is coming from mostly damned Asian-Americans (desis, chinis, Koreans, etc.) That's why rice is out of stock everywhere even Walmart when it is not a staple for most Amreekis. Paper products and cleaning agents are Asian-American bourgeois middle class response.

Goras are stockpiling cereal, canned goods and ammo for their many guns. If things go zombie apocalypse, the redneck'll be packing a Glock 9mm vs desi IT-wallah and his hand sanitizer...

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 12 Mar 2020 16:21

One of the big things happening in Italy is the doctors having to choose who lives and who dies. They are prioritizing the younger vs older.

Now, I wonder, if it gets to that stage, whether doctors will start prioritizing the whites in western world?

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 12 Mar 2020 16:29

Shouldn't this be the other way around?
They should choose the old since they have the most chances of fatality. This might explain why Italy has such high mortality rate.

srin · Post by **srin** » 12 Mar 2020 16:38

vinod wrote:One of the big things happening in Italy is the doctors having to choose who lives and who dies. They are prioritizing the younger vs older.

Now, I wonder, if it gets to that stage, whether doctors will start prioritizing the whites in western world?

Here's the link: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ed/607807/

I don't think it says that this is being done, it only says that it's in the guidelines issued (but not by their Govt ?).

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 12 Mar 2020 16:47

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile: Nice article about how long the virus survives on various surfaces..(National Institute of Health paper)
Tests show new virus lives on some surfaces for up to 3 days

The new coronavirus can live in the air for several hours and on some surfaces for as long as two to three days, tests by U.S. government and other scientists have found.

Their work, published Wednesday, suggests people can get infected through the air as well as from touching things that were contaminated by others who have it, in addition to direct person-to-person contact.

from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Good study. I Was wondering all of last week why something was not already done. I suspected it would stay alive for long times on surfaces...there is no other way to explain its very easy transmittability in many situations. In fact, this should have been initiated- at the very latest after Wuahn was publicly locked down. Someone was asleep at the wheel.

A related study that is just as important is the effect of temperature on the virus (especially important for India where a lot of people are banking on the summer temperatures- GOI, take note) so one knows the extent of vulnerability of the virus to moisture and temperature. I dont now what else is more important for the govt to do for this disease than to study it (other than find medicines and vaccines, prepping hospitals and ensuring medical supplies).

This study also tells me that social distances will not help much. People using public transport will have to be careful of passengers and also surfaces. NYC metro coaches are wiped down every 72 hours (And train stations every night). This virus can survive about 12 hours on steel and polypropylene. Planes will have to be wiped down after every flight....or else...

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 12 Mar 2020 17:11

hanumadu wrote:How will the food supply chain hold up as lock downs become more stringent? People can stop going to school and stop going to work, but some body must continue to produce food and transport it around. How are they going to social distance themselves? If they do, what will happen to the rest of the society? Frankly I hope a large number of head to toe body suits, tens of millions of them, are being manufactured and made available to critical workers so they can continue to work without fear.

I think food chain should not be affected too much unless the production itself is hit. If the production rate (for that particular product) is OK, then is it a matter of transportation. This usually means drivers, unloaders and shelf-stockers. All are usually young people and healthy. With this virus, people get affected for only 3 weeks. After that, 1 out of 100 are dead, the rest are fine. The sick can be rotated out and replaced, as long as not everyone gets sick at the same time , this can be managed. (Of course, buyers have to be careful about infected surfaces). Same goes for water supply, which is more critical, IMHO.

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 12 Mar 2020 17:23

Scientists in Israel likely to announce it developed coronavirus vaccine

BY PTI | MAR 12, 2020, 03.04 PM IST

JERUSALEM: Scientists in Israel are expected to announce in the coming days that they have completed development of a vaccine for the new coronavirus COVID-19, according to a media report here.

Israeli daily Ha'aretz, quoting medical sources, reported on Thursday that scientists at the Israel's Institute for Biological Research, supervised by the Prime Minister's office, have recently had a significant breakthrough in understanding the biological mechanism and qualities of the virus, including better diagnostic capability, production of antibodies for those who already have the virus and development of a vaccine.

The development process, however, requires a series of tests and experiments that may last many months before the vaccination is deemed effective or safe to use, the report said.
The Defence Ministry, however, did not confirm the same in its response to the daily.

"There has been no breakthrough in the efforts of the biological institute to find a vaccine for the coronavirus or to develop testing kits. The institute's work is conducted according to an orderly work plan and it will take time. If and when there will be something to report, it will be done in an orderly fashion", the Defence Ministry told Ha'aretz.

"The biological institute is a world-renowned research and development agency, which relies on experienced researchers and scientists with great knowledge and quality infrastructures. There are now more than 50 experienced scientists working at the institute on researching and developing a medical remedy for the virus," it added.
..................

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 592807.cms

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Mar 2020 19:01

vinod wrote:One of the big things happening in Italy is the doctors having to choose who lives and who dies. They are prioritizing the younger vs older.

Now, I wonder, if it gets to that stage, whether doctors will start prioritizing the whites in western world?

No, not in America. Most doctors are Indians

don't you know

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Mar 2020 19:06

chola wrote:Goras are stockpiling cereal, canned goods and ammo for their many guns. If things go zombie apocalypse, the redneck'll be packing a Glock 9mm vs desi IT-wallah and his hand sanitizer...

That made me

thank you.