Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 12 Mar 2020 19:34

g.sarkar wrote:I went to the local Costco store to get toilet paper as I have run out. Their entire stock of toilet paper, kitchen towels and paper napkins are all sold out due to CV panic buying. My friend tells me that people are buying bottled water, hand sanitizers and rice too like crazy to stock up for disruptions. Back in the good old days in Poland, which did not have easy access to TP, I used the Trybuna Ludu, the communist newspaper for Pakistani purposes. If things go bad, I will have to find an appropriate newspaper in the US.
Gautam

Whatever happened to the good old Indian way, water? I have a Bidet, though, which cuts on the use of toilet paper.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby mappunni » 12 Mar 2020 20:02

saip wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:I went to the local Costco store to get toilet paper as I have run out. Their entire stock of toilet paper, kitchen towels and paper napkins are all sold out due to CV panic buying. My friend tells me that people are buying bottled water, hand sanitizers and rice too like crazy to stock up for disruptions. Back in the good old days in Poland, which did not have easy access to TP, I used the Trybuna Ludu, the communist newspaper for Pakistani purposes. If things go bad, I will have to find an appropriate newspaper in the US.
Gautam

Whatever happened to the good old Indian way, water? I have a Bidet, though, which cuts on the use of toilet paper.


Agreed Saar. I have installed the bidet along with many friends. Those looking to buy the bidets keep an eye on your favorite deal sites.

The local Costco in North Dallas has run out of even chicken. The many Indian grocery stores have signs stating they will not accept returns of groceries bought during panic buying.

We stocked up on frozen vegetables and also ready-made Indian food from the Indian grocery store :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 12 Mar 2020 21:11

srai wrote:^^^
Install this:
Image

Image


Many years ago we installed Toto Washlets in the bathrooms in the house. Our desi friends who visited loved them so much that they all followed suit. The best part of these units is that you can also opt for the seat to be kept warm. I can tell you, nothing feels better than sitting down on a warm toilet in the cold winter months - the ladies are really appreciative. Also makes less mess around the toilet because - as we all know, men do drip!

The only problem is the same as when we first left India - it is darned difficult now to use toilet paper when we go elsewhere and are forced to do so.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 Mar 2020 21:23

sudeepj wrote:
vera_k wrote:FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affected it was far less than us middle aged folks. There was minimal runny nose - we usually go through boxes of Kleenex, but not for this one.


Same experience from Bay area. Severe body ache, mild fever, severe fatigue, no runny nose, mild throat swell..


Thanks for the anecdotes. Just for edification - you both don't have to answer this if it is too personal. But - how many of the ones who got sick, had underlying medical conditions, and was it more severe in them? You don't have to specify the nature of the medical condition either.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 12 Mar 2020 21:23

sajo wrote:Genuinely confused as to what precautions to take. I am from Pune, which is sort of turning out to be the epicenter of COVID-19 resurgence with 2 index cases, who were not in focus for atleast 10 days before being tested.
Washing my hands, making the family do the same.
Avoiding public transport, including cabs for now. My workplace has valet parking (A fancy word for officially indulging in parking tetris), which too I am trying avoid since the same guy parks everybody else's cars. The little one (not yet 1.5 years old), takes a merry stroll in the apartment premises every evening, waving at people and playing with other kids, not sure whether we need to place a curb on that.
Not going to visit Malls (which is a very rare thing anyway), or closed crowded places. Parks and gardens should be okay?
The domestic help visit multiple households with varying degrees of precautions taken, but cannot be avoided.
Can work from home, but is frowned upon in the organisation. So its office for now. 1 case reported to be found in a common office complex housing where some of our staff is also located.
Definitely going to a homeopath this weekend to stock up on cough cold pills, especially since it will be sans any side effects.
Any other things that learned gentle rakshaks might suggest ?


All good things. However, the cynic in me says if you are going to get it, nothing will stop it. Remember, the virus lives on solid surfaces for up to 3 days as was shown in the study quoted here. Which means you could pick up the virus from your mailbox or the UPS/courier delivery of the hand-sanitizer you ordered. Not only could it be on the package/letter sent by an infected person who handled it, but your postman/courier could be infected and pass it on to you.

Once you are infected, do what you would do with any other bout of influenza/chickengunya. Stay in bed, drink lots of fluids, eat well unless you cannot, minimize contact even with the other members of the household. Watch lots of TV if you can - my go to channel when I am sick is cartoons - nothing lifts up my mood more than Tom and Jerry. Personally I don't believe in homeopathy but if it floats your boat, go for it. Honey and lemon with ginger are generally good for the throat. Roasted raisins (the large 'munakka' type we get in India) with a little 'kala namak' are very good for nausea and also stimulate your appetite. Roasted 'makhanas' (lotus seeds) with a little turmeric and salt are also good munchies when you are feeling low and unable to eat anything.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 12 Mar 2020 22:03

sudarshan wrote:Thanks for the anecdotes. Just for edification - you both don't have to answer this if it is too personal. But - how many of the ones who got sick, had underlying medical conditions, and was it more severe in them? You don't have to specify the nature of the medical condition either.


One person had hypertension, controlled via prescription drugs. Didn't notice any difference in severity other than the younger ones being minimally affected or remaining asymptomatic. Note that I don't have confirmation yet, as the antibody test is not available just yet.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 12 Mar 2020 22:23

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will self-isolate and work from home as his wife is being tested for coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 12 Mar 2020 22:27

I was advised by a relative (Doctor) that Social Distance is key, and by another (again a Doc) to drink hot water regularly as dry throats are a magnet for Virus. To that I have started having Ginger Tea and Gooseberry (called Naseberry in here) more than my usual, increased Turmeric Powder Garlic in food and more of my favourite Karela (Bitter Gourd). Prayers always help and if one has to get it, best to have a strong immune system to fight it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jay » 12 Mar 2020 22:39

Sanju wrote:I was advised by a relative (Doctor) that Social Distance is key, and by another (again a Doc) to drink hot water regularly as dry throats are a magnet for Virus. To that I have started having Ginger Tea and Gooseberry (called Naseberry in here) more than my usual, increased Turmeric Powder Garlic in food and more of my favourite Karela (Bitter Gourd). Prayers always help and if one has to get it, best to have a strong immune system to fight it.


Hot water/drinks will dry the throat much faster than cold/room temp liquids.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 12 Mar 2020 22:47

Now that they are saying that this virus can hang around in the air for THREE hours and on some surfaces for as long as 12 hours, the social distance thing, is it really useful?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 Mar 2020 22:50

vera_k wrote:
sudarshan wrote:Thanks for the anecdotes. Just for edification - you both don't have to answer this if it is too personal. But - how many of the ones who got sick, had underlying medical conditions, and was it more severe in them? You don't have to specify the nature of the medical condition either.


One person had hypertension, controlled via prescription drugs. Didn't notice any difference in severity other than the younger ones being minimally affected or remaining asymptomatic. Note that I don't have confirmation yet, as the antibody test is not available just yet.


Thanks, appreciate the response, I'm concerned about a close relative with an underlying condition. I understand you don't know yet if your family had it or not, so it may be moot in this case.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 12 Mar 2020 22:51

saip wrote:Now that they are saying that this virus can hang around in the air for THREE hours and on some surfaces for as long as 12 hours, the social distance thing, is it really useful?


My understanding of "Social Distance" refers to staying at home and keeping away from Public spaces as far as possible.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 12 Mar 2020 22:52

Jay wrote:
Sanju wrote:I was advised by a relative (Doctor) that Social Distance is key, and by another (again a Doc) to drink hot water regularly as dry throats are a magnet for Virus. To that I have started having Ginger Tea and Gooseberry (called Naseberry in here) more than my usual, increased Turmeric Powder Garlic in food and more of my favourite Karela (Bitter Gourd). Prayers always help and if one has to get it, best to have a strong immune system to fight it.


Hot water/drinks will dry the throat much faster than cold/room temp liquids.


Never heard that before. Growing up it was standard never to have cold drinks and such when having cold, fever or cough.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 12 Mar 2020 23:02

Sanju wrote:
saip wrote:Now that they are saying that this virus can hang around in the air for THREE hours and on some surfaces for as long as 12 hours, the social distance thing, is it really useful?


My understanding of "Social Distance" refers to staying at home and keeping away from Public spaces as far as possible.

My understanding of social distance is keeping at least 6 from others and avoiding as far as possible crowded spaces. But staying home would be self quarantine.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 12 Mar 2020 23:05

My airline (Air Canada) changed the rules today even for those booking made previously. I can get full air line credit to be used before the end of the year or make ONE change (difference in flight price applies though).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 12 Mar 2020 23:09

saip wrote:
Sanju wrote:
My understanding of "Social Distance" refers to staying at home and keeping away from Public spaces as far as possible.

My understanding of social distance is keeping at least 6 from others and avoiding as far as possible crowded spaces. But staying home would be self quarantine.


Self Quarantine means not having any contact, as compared to going out for essentials.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 12 Mar 2020 23:13

saip wrote:My airline (Air Canada) changed the rules today even for those booking made previously. I can get full air line credit to be used before the end of the year or make ONE change (difference in flight price applies though).


Saar, why Air Canada if you are living the States? The reason for asking is that, I know someone going to US to fly to India - unless off course you are not flying with them to India.
Since their 1 suitcase only policy, I have tried avoiding them to the extent possible.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Mar 2020 23:29

chola wrote:Same with my local Costco. The panic-buying is coming from mostly damned Asian-Americans (desis, chinis, Koreans, etc.) That's why rice is out of stock everywhere even Walmart when it is not a staple for most Amreekis. Paper products and cleaning agents are Asian-American bourgeois middle class response.
Goras are stockpiling cereal, canned goods and ammo for their many guns. If things go zombie apocalypse, the redneck'll be packing a Glock 9mm vs desi IT-wallah and his hand sanitizer...

Thanks for your input Cholaji. I had not made the connection between Corona virus panic and the Asian population panic-buying rice from Costco. I too have a Glock 9mm, but the problem is that the price of ammo is high, so I have only a token amount of rounds for a home invasion. At my last place of work I was surrounded by goras who had built bunkers in their back yard waiting for the apocalypse. They are not those that are panicking due to corona virus. They are already prepared and stored ammo, water and canned food for years. Also, many Asians such as the Vietnamese and Hmong keep guns as much as the redneck. If the corona virus thing goes south in the Western States and law and order breaks down, we will have a lot of gun violence in our hands. But I do not think it is going to go that far just yet.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 12 Mar 2020 23:37

Over 1000 have died in Italy with 15,000 testing positive, this puts mortality rate at much higher than 3-4% !
Italy has closed everything except pharmacy & foodstores

In UK over 10,000 test positive!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe ... um=custom7

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 12 Mar 2020 23:45

saip wrote:Now that they are saying that this virus can hang around in the air for THREE hours and on some surfaces for as long as 12 hours, the social distance thing, is it really useful?


Last year, Seattle was snowed in for 2 weeks. There is a paper stating that event reduced flu transmission by 2-29%.

Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of
respiratory viruses

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 12 Mar 2020 23:46

IndraD wrote:Over 1000 have died in Italy with 15,000 testing positive, this puts mortality rate at much higher than 3-4% !

Not everyone who has the disease may be tested. People with mild symptoms may just stay at home and avoid going to the doctor.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Mar 2020 23:49

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ev ... s-n1155841
'Everyone's losing': College campus closures a stark reality for students
“I'd take Corona over listening to my mom nag at me every day for a month," one student said.
By Natasha Roy and Ben Kesslen, March 12, 2020

An eerie quiet crept over Amherst College’s usually bustling Massachusetts campus on Monday when students learned that in-person classes have been cancelled for the rest of the semester and they have to vacate school grounds by March 16.
“We got the email and we all just sort of sat there in silence for a little while,” Amherst senior Emma Swislow said.
Swislow, 22, described the decision as a “big shock.” She was hoping to spend the next few months wrapping up her time at the small liberal arts school and begin saying her goodbyes. “Now we've had to do that in a matter of days,” she said.
Amherst is one of many colleges that has decided to close its campus and move to remote classes as the new coronavirus — and the fear surrounding it — spreads. This week, University of California, Santa Barbara, University of Michigan, and dozens of others schools moved classes online. Like Amherst, Wesleyan College, Grinnell College, and Harvard University, took it a step further, ordering students to leave campus for the remainder of the semester.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 13 Mar 2020 00:15

India reports first #coronavirus death: 76-year-old man from Karnataka, who died on Tuesday, was infected with COVID-19, says Union Health Ministry.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 13 Mar 2020 00:34

Again close to 80 years old. Most likely has underlying conditions.

Did they say how he got the infection?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 13 Mar 2020 00:53

South Korea has a mortality rate around 0.8% out of 7869 cases. Some 66 deaths.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 13 Mar 2020 01:01

Sanju wrote:...hot water regularly as dry throats are a magnet for Virus. To that, I have started having Ginger Tea and Gooseberry (called Naseberry in here) more than my usual, increased Turmeric Powder Garlic...


My experiences with Rhinovirus and Flu virii:

1. Zinc lozenges help. The downside is that they will make you flatulent.
2. Turmeric+Ginger+Pepper+Cinnamon+Oil/Ghee in warm water or Almond Milk -> this is the ultimate. Take sips and keep your throats inside coated with it.
3. Scotch+hot water -> Lagavulin + cinnamon + pepper in hot water is the best.
4. Wash hands. Wash hands. Wash hands.
5. Do not step into the kitchen if you can.
6. Use disposable & compostable kitchenware if possible. For example, lunch served in banana leaf, idlis made and served in jackfruit leaf, use hands or bamboo spoons.
7. Learn to drink water without touching the lips.
8. Go high on vegetables.

Go vegetarian or Vegan. It is the meat-eating habits of humans that are causing these issues in the first place. Good for the earth, good for you, good for society.

In short, follow Brahmanical or Jain or Hindu practices. Survive and later rant on them on twitter or other social platforms to prove how liberal and secular you are and for putting you through all of the above efforts. Particularly going vegetarian.

Stop panicking. This is not rabies that will kill you. This is not Cholera or Typhoid or Dysentry or Polio. This is not ebola or hantavirus.

And try to understand your inner atman. Pray, that you do not end up being a baki or a commie in the next life.

Regarding testing., And why would everybody want to be tested? I have an itchy-scratchy throat, lets run and get ourselves tested. Do you realize the livelock problem? That is while you are being tested, somebody is *not* being tested. And that somebody might be actively spreading the Wuhan virus to the very persons you care about.

In S. Korea, Patient 31 driven by Christ's gift to mankind started sharing the gift and she infected whole districts. Similarly, we have a family that is redeemed from sin and was happily spreading the disease.

People from such high-risk areas require first access to tests. Not from a remote part of Barmer or even from Trivandrum who may not even be in close contact with people from pardoned-off-their sins who visited italy.

One of the cases in Kerala is a person aged 96. Wow, that is advanced age. But statistically, one such casualty and the newspapers can start another round of panic and say #Blow2Mudi

And by the time you have read the above post (assuming 1 minute), Three (3) deaths would have occurred worldwide. (@1.6 million deaths world wide in traffic related accidents).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 13 Mar 2020 01:13

ramana wrote:Again close to 80 years old. Most likely has underlying conditions.

Did they say how he got the infection?


I believe he returned from Haj.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vamsee » 13 Mar 2020 01:20

schinnas wrote:
ramana wrote:Again close to 80 years old. Most likely has underlying conditions.

Did they say how he got the infection?


I believe he returned from Haj.


Yes. His name is Mohammad Hussein Siddhiqui. He returned from Saudi recently and fell ill.
(Source: Eenadu)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ranjan.rao » 13 Mar 2020 01:28

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/why ... 95146.html

NEW DELHI : coronavirus, coronavirus update, coronavirus pandemic, Spanish flu, India war against coronavirus, COVID-19, COVID-19 outbreak, flu virus, 1918 H1N1 virus, Indian economy, 1918 experience, Mahatma Gandhi, India GDP, health

Towards the fag end of June, 1918, The Times of India Bombay carried a brief story about a “fever epidemic" that was sweeping through the city. Workshops got shut; most offices discovered that their clerical staff had suddenly taken leave en masse. But nobody realized the magnitude of what was about to unfold. The main remedy prescribed in the news article: Not to worry and go to bed.

Meanwhile, a novel flu virus had sneaked into Bombay, most likely through the city’s docks. In a span of just three weeks, by mid-July 1918, news began filtering in about the spread of this mystery illness—to Madras and Allahabad.

By October, just three months after the first cases began showing up in Bombay, the healthcare system had broken down completely. Newspapers were calling for the public to “organize self-help".

There are many differences between 1918 and 2020: India is not ruled by a colonial government; the coronavirus is technically different from an influenza virus although they cause similar symptoms; also, much of what we have come to understand as modern medicine did not exist a century ago.

But despite these caveats, the 1918 experience matters for one simple reason: it was the last major global pandemic that spread rapidly within India—a historical reservoir of experience that shows, in painful detail, what happens when an unprepared country comes in the way of a virulent pandemic.

A propaganda poster with precautions to be taken to reduce the spread of the flu.
A propaganda poster with precautions to be taken to reduce the spread of the flu. ( Photo: Getty Images)
India worst hit

That is precisely why Chinmay Tumbe, an economic historian at Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIM-A), began rifling through old archival records. “It is useful to see how bad things can be. The thing with a pandemic is that it can so easily spiral out of control," he said.

And, in 1918, all it took was a few months. An estimated 10-20 million Indians died (a fifth of the global death toll, making India the worst-hit country). The Ghats along the River Ganga ran out of wood as the bodies piled up, according to a letter written by renowned Hindi poet Nirala, which is available in his collected works. Prominent citizens from Mahatma Gandhi to writer Munshi Premchand are suspected to have fallen sick before recovering.

And, the disease left a devastating impact on the economy.

In the last 120 years of recorded economic history in India, 1918 was the worst (see Chart 1). Recorded growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) was the lowest (-10.5%) while inflation was near all-time highs, a cocktail much worse than any other tragedy that has hit India—including the world wars or the Bengal famine.

“Typically, when GDP slumps, prices also fall. But nobody was going to work in 1918 (because of the virus) and there was a supply-side shock. It was a truly unique year in India’s macroeconomic history," said Tumbe.

“We should be gearing up for something similar," he warned. While the rate of spread of the disease will depend heavily on the effectiveness of India’s containment measures (travel bans from an expanded set of countries was announced on Wednesday), the infection will spread and economic growth will fall, he added.

If 1918 is the worst-case scenario, how should India prepare for a pandemic at its doorstep? For that we have to first understand the severity of what happened more than a hundred years ago.

In 1951, Johan Hultin, a 25-year-old microbiologist and PhD student from the University of Iowa, US, set out on an unusual mission. His destination was a graveyard frozen in permafrost nestled inside an ocean-side village in Alaska. Hultin was looking for traces of a virus, frozen in time, within the tissues of those buried during the deadliest pandemics of the 20th century.

A full reconstruction of the virus in 2005 showed that no other influenza virus was as dangerous and virulent as the one that surfaced in 1918.

Globally, the influenza pandemic of 1918 killed more people in a year than what the Black Death of the Middle Ages (bubonic plague) killed in a century; it killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS killed in 24 years, wrote John M. Barry, historian and author, in his book The Great Influenza: the Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History. The disease initially spread by exploiting the crowded conditions of an era in which trench warfare was the norm. The infections were noticed across military camps but countries in the midst of World War I—Britain, Germany, France and the US—kept it a secret in the beginning, in a bid to keep the morale of the forces high. Spain, which was not a party in the war, reported the outbreak of the disease accurately. So when the disease became a pandemic it seemed to have emerged in Spain, and hence dubbed “Spanish Flu".

Caused by an H1N1 virus of avian origin, the disease is estimated to have infected about a third of the global population and caused at least 50 million deaths worldwide, with nearly half of the victims being men and women in their 20s and 30s.

The deaths were often violent: the infected coughed up blood; they bled from their ears and noses, and had extremely painful body aches. The pandemic took shape in two phases—a milder form in early 1918 when the virus affected the sick and the elderly, while the healthier recovered swiftly. The second wave beginning August was deadly—ravaging the stronger immune system of younger adults.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), health protection agency of the US, the properties that made the 1918 virus so devastating were not well understood when it struck.

And, according to CDC, the 1918 virus was special: “A uniquely deadly product of nature, evolution and the intermingling of people and animals. It would serve as a portent of nature’s ability to produce future pandemics of varying public health concern and origin."

Since there were no vaccines to protect against influenza infections and no antibiotics to treat secondary infections, control efforts in 1918 were limited to isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene and limiting public gatherings—steps which are being followed now for the Covid-19 pandemic.

Lessons for India

While the line between preparedness and panic can seem rather thin, especially in the midst of a pandemic, Amir Ullah Khan, a development economist and public health expert, says that India must do two things immediately: ban all large-scale gatherings and launch a massive information and awareness campaign on basic hygiene and social protection.

Things like the Indian Premier League must shut down. It is crazy if we continue with it," he said. “And the phone caller tune message is ridiculously insufficient. We should be spreading information in every possible language through a variety of mediums."

Khan added: “The coming impact is going to be huge. This is no longer a question of if, but when. Even if this (Covid-19) doesn’t turn out to be the deadliest flu, the economic impact is going to big. We may be fast moving towards a point where there are no flights operating anywhere in the world." Preliminary estimates put losses in the aviation sector at $113 billion.

Strangely, Covid-19 may thus end up pushing the world closer to how it looked in 1918 by shutting down air travel. And that is the key difference on the negative side between now and a century ago: connectivity and ease of travel. It was a key metric that went into the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) decision to declare a pandemic.

The advice is clear: expand surveillance. “Countries need to prepare for more hospital admissions," Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at WHO told Mint. “The main lesson from China is that this virus can be contained and controlled, if effective public health action is taken speedily."

Instead, we (India) have been dragging our feet for two months, said Khan. “We can’t believe that things like the weather will take care of it. If that was the case, the virus wouldn’t have spread to tropical places like Singapore and Philippines," he added.

In the next few weeks, to avoid a repeat of 1918, the key parameter beyond containment would be extensive testing of all those who exhibit cold-like symptoms, especially as many suspected patients have already been able to travel, work and socialize undetected inside the country for significant periods of time.

“We should identify cases as quickly as possible," said Lalit Kant, a researcher at the Public Health Foundation of India. “In a pandemic, quietness is always worrying. If we go by what has happened in other countries, then we should be getting prepared." (South Korea, for example, set up an extensive protocol in just a few weeks and tested more than 200,000 people).

Ultimately, irrespective of how the next few weeks plaIn conclusiony out, Covid-19 may change the world in profound ways, much like the 1918 influenza pandemic.

A century ago, population profiles got profoundly altered (the decade between 1911 and 1921 was the only census period in which India’s population fell). The devastation of the pandemic also, in no small part, fuelled the Indian independence movement.

In 2020, the changes may be more economic and social, if not political. Our view on vaccines and the investments that go into it, for example, may change immediately, said K.S.James, a demographer at the International Institute of Population Studies.

“Only for the last 100-or-so years, population growth above 1% a year has been common. We are fortunately living at a unique moment in a time. But now, communicable diseases are making a comeback. They are leaving impacts that serious wars used to earlier. New research on vaccines is inevitable," he said.

Sayantan Bera contributed to this story.

Another british sin buried in the litany of their sins...nevertheless hyenas fail not to take subtle potshots at this govt...

saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 13 Mar 2020 01:29

schinnas wrote:
ramana wrote:Again close to 80 years old. Most likely has underlying conditions.

Did they say how he got the infection?


I believe he returned from Haj.

Do they hold a lottery for Hajj in India (at least it is happening in Pakistan)? If so they should cancel that unnecessary travel to stop the infection even if it means hurting few sentiments.

ranjan.rao
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ranjan.rao » 13 Mar 2020 01:31

why is pakistan not reporting significant covid instances???they have huge chinese interaction...

"20 cases reported in Pakistan since Feb 26, one has recovered (Read more)" that's it? a country with ultra poor hyegine even in karachi...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1539943/baloc ... virus-case

may be not testing..and not counting ..and then claim that TFTA race did not catch corona...

saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 13 Mar 2020 01:34

Looks like Thirupati has set up several checkpoints for screening devotees and are also playing videos to educate. Allowing tickets to be cancelled. -- Eenaadu in Telugu.

Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2020 01:46

I just heard it from our Director of Department of health, and actually verified from our Governor that these numbers are not misspoken.

(I am not surprised by these numbers because this is what many of us have were getting from our models)

I know it is hard to understand #COVID19 since we can't see it, but we know that 1% of our (Ohio) population is carrying this virus today -- that's over 100,000 people.


Note: This is for Ohio - not hotspots like Washington or Bay area.

*****
Meanwhile:
It is encouraging that trump administration is listening to scientists .. more of this in my posts later.

chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 13 Mar 2020 01:51

saip wrote:
schinnas wrote:
I believe he returned from Haj.

Do they hold a lottery for Hajj in India (at least it is happening in Pakistan)? If so they should cancel that unnecessary travel to stop the infection even if it means hurting few sentiments.


the saudis have almost shut down the haj for the time being so sentiments will not matter

Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 13 Mar 2020 01:55

Amber G. wrote:I just heard it from our Director of Department of health, and actually verified from our Governor that these numbers are not misspoken.

(I am not surprised by these numbers because this is what many of us have were getting from our models)

I know it is hard to understand #COVID19 since we can't see it, but we know that 1% of our (Ohio) population is carrying this virus today -- that's over 100,000 people.


Note: This is for Ohio - not hotspots like Washington or Bay area.

*****
Meanwhile:
It is encouraging that trump administration is listening to scientists .. more of this in my posts later.

:eek:

sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 13 Mar 2020 01:58

It would be nice to have evidence for many of these posts.

Please do not proffer medical advice unless there is evidence or at least consensus among practitioners, which itself is poor substitute for evidence.

Sippping hot water vs cold-no evidence.

Influenza vaccine protects against flu-the evidence does not support this for individuals. In fact it may encourage risky behaviour and lead to morbidity and mortality.

Get tested- why? Do we know the viral shedding period? Is shedding the same as being contagious, will it mean fewer cases or more? Paradoxically unless one is short of breath, perhaps it is better to stay away from clinics and hospitals for testing. The management will not change and you will likely pass it to others. Might be better to self isolate regardless. Unless one is in a critical profession.

Bart S
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 13 Mar 2020 02:00

ranjan.rao wrote:why is pakistan not reporting significant covid instances???they have huge chinese interaction...

"20 cases reported in Pakistan since Feb 26, one has recovered (Read more)" that's it? a country with ultra poor hyegine even in karachi...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1539943/baloc ... virus-case

may be not testing..and not counting ..and then claim that TFTA race did not catch corona...


Tableeghi Jamat has collected 100,000 people for some kind of gathering and the Paki gov and military are afraid to restrict them.

ranjan.rao
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ranjan.rao » 13 Mar 2020 02:06

well it's a tertiary measure of population control the pakistani army way, the first being terrorism, second being army ...and third being after death..if there is a pandemic..i am quite sure they will cry for help from india and china....esp given the ducks are not coming to eat locusts...

Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 13 Mar 2020 02:11

^^^ Let me expand:
It is encouraging that science-driven decision-making is being taken seriously by Washington officials. (At least that is my impression - Trump's last press conf as well as some nicer change in the upper leadership as well as their willingness to listen to traditional scientists)

Any way here is one graphic - produced by mathematical modeling but using quite reasonable data. it is for estimates for King and Snohomish counties through April 7, 2020 (Basically Settle area)



Image

*** The key point here, is even in small area, if one keeps "business as usual" this model is predicting about 25,000 cases and 400 deaths.

Depending on how good we do (In testing, quarantining and using US resources like Korea/India etc)..
The rate can come down to about 5000 cases and 100 deaths or even as low as 30 deaths.

Similar statistics for the Bay area..
***
This is not a new news - one only has to look at South Korea vs Italy (or Iran).. though total cases are about same the death rate is 1/8 or less... If we include serious and critical patients the ratio is about 50x or more (that is there are 50 times more people who are seriously ill in Iran than in ROK if you normalize the results)

Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 13 Mar 2020 02:25

^^^not to mention that Soko has a larger elderly population than most. I guess isolation and quarantine are the most effective...


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