Amber G. wrote:....
Let us take a number 4 days - (actual number is not that important - just take what you think is most accurate)
And say the cases in USA is about 2000,
In One month ===> 360,000 cases
In Two months ===> 65, 000, 000
These numbers are serious..
(Similar numbers for India)
Fear is if chaos start (eg health care system break) that the death rate can become *much* worse than current
Ji, you of all people (no offence, I mean that in the best possible way) should know the pitfalls of these kinds of calculations.
There used to be (still are) these pyramid schemes. Yakov Perelman (don't know if you've read his books) was very fond of listing them out. One of them (pyramid scheme, not Yakov Perelman book) was - "get a bicycle for just 10 Roubles!" (Russian/ Soviet context, nominal price of that bicycle being 50 Roubles). So the advertisers were offering to sell bikes to people for 20% of their nominal cost.
To the people who flipped and bought the coupons, came a kind of dampener or disappointment. Because what they got for their 10 Roubles wasn't a bike, but a set of four more coupons, which they had to sell to their friends for 10 Roubles each, and forward the proceeds to the original seller. So basically, the original seller did 20% of the work, and got these gullible souls to do the remaining 80%, the original seller wasn't losing any money (still getting 50 Roubles per bike), the buyers couldn't complain about being cheated, because they really *were* getting their bikes for 10 Roubles apiece, just that they had to find another 4 gullible friends to sell coupons to. And those 4 gullible friends would each receive 4 coupons from the original seller, to pass on to *their* friends.
What's wrong with this scheme? It's a classic pyramid scheme, with initial geometric growth. So one person ropes in 4 others, and the pyramid grows by that factor in each iteration. So please do the math - assuming even one initial buyer, with coupon sales occurring within a day each time, in 17 days, you get (4^17-1)/(4-1) people, who either got a bike, or are holding coupons. That is almost 6 billion people. Just that the scheme can't grow anymore, because we're at that point close to the population of the entire earth.
Actually, the scheme will run out of steam way before it gets to that stage. As these "willing friends" get used up, they are no longer going to support coupon sales. And the coupon holders will find it very hard to find "fresh buyers" to dispose of their coupons and claim their bikes.
Same way with these disease doubling times. As more and more people get infected, the infection rate will drastically drop (simply because it is going to be hard to come across folks who have never been infected), doubling time will increase, and these predictions of "within 2 months we will have 1/5th of the USA infected" are unlikely to come to pass (sincerely hope I don't end up eating these words, but I don't think I will). In fact, why stop with 2 months, why not extrapolate to the whole year? Because in less than 3 months we are going to run out of people in the world. And way before that, the infection rate will be drastically down, simply because it will be harder and harder to find uninfected people.
Hope that makes sense.