Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 13 Mar 2020 22:29

pgbhat wrote:Bengaluru-based Google techie's wife tests positive for coronavirus
Sources said that the woman was the Google techie's wife, and further confirmed that the woman had been kept at the isolation ward after her return and her sample was sent for testing.However, she left the ward without informing the doctors. :eek: The matter came to light on Friday, when the lab report confirmed the infection. On being asked, the parents told the authorities that she had left for Delhi. :roll:

They later admitted that she was at her residence in the town, when the authorities threatened to call the police. :evil: Agra has reported the maximum number of coronavirus cases in Uttar Pradesh.

These are folks who should be sent to prison.



maybe we need a law like this in India

Coronavirus patients who refuse to self-isolate face murder charges in Italy

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 13 Mar 2020 22:38

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1157551
Coronavirus updates live: Trump plans to declare national emergency
Here are the latest updates from around the world.
President Donald Trump plans to declare a national emergency on Friday, the most significant move yet by the U.S. government to head off the coronavirus outbreak. Trump's declaration would come as many public and private institutions have taken action — including canceling major events, temporarily banning large gatherings, closing schools and telling people to work from home — in an effort to slow the spread of the virus.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 13 Mar 2020 23:48

Italy reports 250 new deaths and 2,547 new cases, raising total to 1,266 dead and 17,660 cases. Italy has also reported 181 new recoveries and 175 new cases in serious condition; total of 1,439 recovered and 1,328 in serious condition.

69-year-old woman who tested positive for coronavirus infection dies in Delhi: Health Ministry and Delhi government officials. India’s 2nd #Coronavirus-linked death is a 68-year-old woman from West Delhi, who also suffered from diabetes & hypertension. Tested positive for #COVID19. Was also the mother of a person with a positive case. Two deaths in India now.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 13 Mar 2020 23:53

The strategy in Britain seems to be minimal testing. They are relying on infections to provide herd immunity. See the post on low vaccination rates and breaking epidemics.

They are aware that deaths will result but it is a way to vaccinate the population, in a sense.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 13 Mar 2020 23:56

sanjaykumar wrote:The strategy in Britain seems to be minimal testing. They are relying on infections to provide herd immunity. See the post on low vaccination rates and breaking epidemics.

They are aware that deaths will result but it is a way to vaccinate the population, in a sense.

If containment efforts of various countries do not work well, that could be how the pandemic eventually ends. Majority of the world population infected and recovered (except for the ones who die) resulting in global herd immunity. The death toll in this scenario will be terrible.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 14 Mar 2020 00:09

chetak wrote:
chola wrote:Had to be said.

Complaining about how China covered up the disease doesn't do me any good. China was in lockdown more than a month before Italy exploded and now the US.

The US had weeks to prepare and I thought the early moves to ban flights and foreign nationals from Cheen and other parts of Asia were good. But then it undid all of that by leaving the backdoor open to Europe.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/china-response-china.html



china may have been in lockdown but the direct wuhan - italy flights continued unabated until very recently.

eyetaly has around 200,000 t0 250,000 chinese nationals including illegals resident in the country working in the leather and textile industry there

furthermore, china is really upset at India for putting a travel advisory on travel to china just some days ago. These selfish morons seem to think that their reputation is worth more than the health of India's citizens :mrgreen:


Cheen international flights were/are down 90% or so. If Italy insisted on being the few who allowed in flights from Cheen then they deserved this epidemic. But I doubt anyone had direct access to Wuhan since January even from Chini cities, Chetak ji. We had to pick up Indians with a C-17 and that needed to be approved by the chinis.

Nobody listens to the chini if they belly-ache either. Who cares? Everyone blocked their flights to them no matter what they said. So complaining about them is pointless. Especially in the US. Nobody in the US believes Cheen and no one listens to their complaints, Chinese nationals aren't even allowed to visit the US. The key is what the Trump administration did in preparing for the wave from the secondary infection locations. The infections happening now are mainly spread from connections with Europe which is upsetting to me because it undid all the good that was done by reacting quickly with a ban of chini travelers.

They should have kept tabs on secondary countries like Italy who had large numbers of chinis. But completely failed there because they simply didn't want to impose the same embargo of travelers they did on cheen on other goras. They had no issue with placing that embargo on Iran who have far less travelers to the US.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 14 Mar 2020 00:30

https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/kerala/corona-ve-thrissur-man-mingled-with-over-1000-people-route-map-to-be-released-soon--1.4610788

A foreign returned man from thrissur mingled with 1000 people. He was in the same flight as the Italy returned people. He initially denied he was in the same flight.
Govt should have forced strict quarantine even if it had to use force. How did he escape? A british couple in Kerala escaped from a hospital during quarantine. What should we do with these morons? Quarantine them in a prison?

I think time has come for intercity travel ban. We are lucky there is no community spread in India so far. We should take this opportunity to ban intercity ban till Covid cases come down to zero. Some moron escapes quarantine and spreads it among others in the city. People from the city travel to other cities and infect those cities. Better be safe than sorry. Ban intercity travel.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 14 Mar 2020 00:36

hanumadu wrote: What should we do with these morons? Quarantine them in a prison?


Given that the Indian government quickly brought in the 1897 Act on epidemics https://ijme.in/articles/the-epidemic-diseases-act-of-1897-public-health-relevance-in-the-current-scenario/?galley=html

Above gives broad-ranging powers to the Indian Government, including suspension of civil liberties. All the morons, particularly the brishit couple and the non-sinners from Italy who flout the requests of medical personnel can be sent out to Kalapaani. I think GOI should use this opportunity to review the cellular jail in India, create containers that can be used as "rooms" and pack these morons off to Kaalapani.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 14 Mar 2020 00:45

sooraj wrote: Two deaths in India now.


Definitely. In past hour, 2 people did die in India due to road accidents.

Perspective is important. Yes, the Coronavirus pandemic needs to be stemmed. Humanity does not need one more disease. It impacts the poor more than the rich. Having said that:

1. Coronavirus is *NOT* as virulent as SmallPox, Rabies, Plague, Malaria, Cholera, Typhoid, Tetanus, Measles

2. Coronavirus is *NOT* as communicable as Measles, Malaria, Cholera, Typhoid, Smallpox

3. Coronavirus is *discriminatory*, that is it takes out the older population unlike the other ones above. Above ones, the larger burden is on children.

So why the panic on Coronavirus?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sohamn » 14 Mar 2020 01:15

Because the above diseases have medicines and vaccines and corona doesn't. Furthermore, it's in our nature to care for the elderly. So while panic doesn't help in any situation, being concerned, informed and watchful might help overcome the situation.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Mar 2020 01:43

sanjaykumar wrote:The strategy in Britain seems to be minimal testing. They are relying on infections to provide herd immunity. See the post on low vaccination rates and breaking epidemics.

They are aware that deaths will result but it is a way to vaccinate the population, in a sense.

Herd immunity is one thing . What the Chinese and Italians saw was that the numbers who needed to go to hospital overwhelmed their medical systems. It's a given that herd immunity will build, but it seems the real consequence is that Britain is prepared to let some die off without doing anything about it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Mar 2020 01:45

hanumadu wrote:https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/kerala/corona-ve-thrissur-man-mingled-with-over-1000-people-route-map-to-be-released-soon--1.4610788

A foreign returned man from thrissur mingled with 1000 people. He was in the same flight as the Italy returned people. He initially denied he was in the same flight.
Govt should have forced strict quarantine even if it had to use force. How did he escape? A british couple in Kerala escaped from a hospital during quarantine. What should we do with these morons? Quarantine them in a prison?

Name and shame publicly, on SM. Especially foreigners, who are going to run back and infect their own countries. It's a service.


hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 14 Mar 2020 02:34

Suraj wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:The strategy in Britain seems to be minimal testing. They are relying on infections to provide herd immunity. See the post on low vaccination rates and breaking epidemics.

They are aware that deaths will result but it is a way to vaccinate the population, in a sense.

Herd immunity is one thing . What the Chinese and Italians saw was that the numbers who needed to go to hospital overwhelmed their medical systems. It's a given that herd immunity will build, but it seems the real consequence is that Britain is prepared to let some die off without doing anything about it.



Even if herd immunity is built, one would wan't to prolong this so there is no panic, society is not overwhelmed and so that essential supplies are not disrupted. Flatten the curve.

Perhaps, Britain does not want to pay pension to the old.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 02:43

POTUS press conference is still going on.
Noticed that Dr Fauci referred to "flatten the curve" multiple times.. (referring the curve I have posted here in brf a few days ago - derived through mathematical modeling on how limiting the contact can "flatten the curve" etc..)

Let me post those popular and powerful curves (now posted on many reputable sites) to bring home importance of
"flattening the curve"

Image

And

Image

Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Mar 2020 02:59

disha wrote:
sooraj wrote: Two deaths in India now.


Definitely. In past hour, 2 people did die in India due to road accidents.

So why the panic on Coronavirus?

The transmission curve. That is central to it from a public policymaking perspective. It's important to ensure social separation in order to flatten the curve, because we have no immunity or treatment for it, and a high transmission rate and level of virulence generates a far greater number of people needing hospitalized care, which the system cannot cope with.

It's not scary - it's that people are doing things that are contrary to clear common sense rationale in this situation by behaving ignorantly or outright recklessly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_Sharma » 14 Mar 2020 03:08

TWITTER

@RightistSingh wrote:

So #COVID2019 is the 5th Pandemic ever!

1. Spanish Flu, 1918
Origin- #China, 5 crore deaths

2. Asian Flu,1957
Origin- #China caused 15 lakh ds

3.Hongkong flu,1968
Origin- #China, 20 lakh Deaths

4. Swine flu, 2009
Origin- #Mexico, 6 lakh Deaths

5. Corona 2019
Origin- #China

Just to add:

1. Spanish Flu from WATER FOWL BIRDS

2. Asian Flu from PIGS

3.Hongkong flu from PIGS

4. Swine flu from PIGS

5. Corona from BATS

While 4 out of 5 Pandemics that world has ever witnessed came from #China

And ALL 5 were caused by Animals (zoonotic)

https://twitter.com/RightistSingh/statu ... 91616?s=19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suresh S » 14 Mar 2020 03:18

That above post describes the conronavirus situation perfectly with the curve flattening . This will prevent the hospitals to be overwhelmed . Today,s press conference by the president was the first time I felt the administration is on the money. wash your hands, minimize touching your face , use a N-95 mask and do not be careless. It is not just the flu. Mortality rate is not clear cut at present but could be even higher than 5% as in Italy. Influenza mortality rate is 0.5%. If you can not get purell sanitizer just use rubbing alcohol or just soap and warm water will do . use common sense.Avoid crowded places and even in your own house same precautions should be taken. Wipe all commonly used surfaces with antibacterial wipes by clorox or similar which contains peroxide or bleach or alcohol.Maintain safe distance from others.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aarvee » 14 Mar 2020 03:20

Amber G. wrote:Remdesivir - (Today actually this is making news in Washington post)


I'll add a bit more regarding this drug. Basically the genetic material i.e. DNA and RNA (of all carbon based life, including plants, animals, bacteria, viruses etc) is made up of 4 nucleotide bases, Adenine (A), Cytosine (C), Guanine (G) and Thymine (T)/ Uracil(U). The DNA/RNA is essentially a long stretch of these molecules, i.e. the sequence of these nucleotides is the gene sequence, which decides the protein structure etc.

Remdesivir looks like Adenine but doesnt function like adenine. When baby viruses are being made inside infected host cells, these functionally invalid adenine like nucleotides are added into the RNA molecules that are supposed to be the genetic material for the new viruses. But since these are functionally invalid, the baby virus is either dead on arrival or doesnt even fully form, significantly reducing new virus production. Gives valuable time for our body to repair damage and the immune system to regroup and eliminate the virus.

Now, as you can imagine our bodies also use Adenine and hence it is damaging to the host as well. Hence these drugs were highly toxic and generally only used as a last resort under careful monitoring of dosing etc. Latest versions of the drugs are designed with greatly reduced toxicity.

The mechanism of action is quite basic and hence the drug works against multiple viruses. Some viruses dont respond as well as others, for example, Hepatitis iirc doesnt respond as well as say HIV or ebola or looks like the current wuhan virus, as it's polymerase (the enzyme required to make copies of DNA/RNA) can distinguish between the original "A" and the fake "A".

This drug is one of the 4 drugs given as part of the combination anti-HIV medication.If only one drug is given, the virus will develop resistance. Thats why 4 different classes of drugs, each attacking a different stage of virus pathogenesis (attachment to cell surface, cell entry, replication, assembly etc) making it close to impossible for the virus to escape.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aarvee » 14 Mar 2020 03:26

https://www.amazon.com.au/Spillover-Ani ... B00856PC4K

A great book (published in 2012) that goes into quite a bit of detail into multiple zoonotic outbreaks in Africa and Chine. Talks about the live animal markets in South china and how dangerous they are.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 14 Mar 2020 03:37

One other report of concern, this is about patients who recover from the infection - they may have a lung capacity that is reduced by 20-30% leading to gasping when walking briskly. This is said to be due to residual fibrosis. What the report does not mention is whether these patients had been on a ventilator or otherwise severely compromised with the pneumonitis. Long term complications or disability of course is unknown.

From the ID Director at one of the local hospitals in Hong Kong.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... s-may-have

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 14 Mar 2020 03:51

The issue I have with "social distancing" is the virus can stay on hard surfaces for 72 hours. You can stay away from people, but how can u stay away from something you cannot see?

You might get infected by holding on a train rail, despite not having a single human around you.

So the objective of "curve flattening" is a theoretical construct. Do we have any example of this happening with people maintaining "social distancing" and carrying on regular life?

The Chinese laid down hard social distancing. I am now understanding that US & Europeans are not ready to handle a epidemic, despite their advance medical setup, as they haven't had one in decades. They have lost the skill of managing an epidemic.

Asian countries, having seen constant epidemic, realize the need for hard social distancing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 14 Mar 2020 04:02

nam wrote:The issue I have with "social distancing" is the virus can stay on hard surfaces for 72 hours. You can stay away from people, but how can u stay away from something you cannot see?

You might get infected by holding on a train rail, despite not having a single human around you.

So the objective of "curve flattening" is a theoretical construct. Do we have any example of this happening with people maintaining "social distancing" and carrying on regular life?

...


How can you get infected merely by holding a train rail? You will need to pick your nose or touch your eyes or eat something with unwashed hands.. Interestingly, there are ACE receptors around your eyelid, not necessarily just on the mucosal surface of your eyeball! So dont touch your face with unwashed hands.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 14 Mar 2020 04:14

sanjaykumar wrote:The strategy in Britain seems to be minimal testing. They are relying on infections to provide herd immunity. See the post on low vaccination rates and breaking epidemics.

They are aware that deaths will result but it is a way to vaccinate the population, in a sense.


imHo, this is idiocy. Herd immunity among the young sounds like a good idea. But the older people, those who are obese, have hypertension, diabetes etc. must be given advise and support to self isolate.

Even with the young people, the virus does cause severe disease in a small fraction. The needs to this fraction can easily overwhelm the health care facilities.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 04:15

nam wrote:The issue I have with "social distancing" is the virus can stay on hard surfaces for 72 hours. You can stay away from people, but how can u stay away from something you cannot see?

You might get infected by holding on a train rail, despite not having a single human around you.

So the objective of "curve flattening" is a theoretical construct. Do we have any example of this happening with people maintaining "social distancing" and carrying on regular life?
<snip>

Asian countries, having seen constant epidemic, realize the need for hard social distancing.

Yes, virus can survive on surfaces (or even on your hand) for a long time but unless a hand touches face / eyes etc.. chances are less that you will be infected.
Idea is to lessen the probability.
And this decreases the R0 factor..
Minimizing "social contact" is just NOT theoretical or some guess / made up number ... this is based on solid data.
Basically, if some perform hand-washing etc.. it *will* lower the probability of transmission.
Mathematical models are based on that.
They are powerful tools.
(This not new, we have decades of data, and well studied mathematical tools .. we can fit some parameters for measured CV characteristics and get pretty accurate results)
(We have hard numbers on how long virus survives etc - probability of transmission given a particular situation etc. and we can get fairly accurate numbers on how much this will lower the R0 etc).
Hope this helps.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 04:24

sudeepj wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:The strategy in Britain seems to be minimal testing. They are relying on infections to provide herd immunity. See the post on low vaccination rates and breaking epidemics.

They are aware that deaths will result but it is a way to vaccinate the population, in a sense.


imHo, this is idiocy.
<snip> .

Yes, Besides there is no evidence that British are doing "minimal testing".. They have conducted 26,000+ tests (387/million) much more (per million) than, say France or US (20X times)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 14 Mar 2020 04:41

Look at the Korean numbers and find some perspective. A number in isolation means little.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 04:48

disha wrote:[
Definitely. In past hour, 2 people did die in India due to road accidents.

So why the panic on Coronavirus?

Short, clear answer - exponential growth.
One of nice example, I have given all the time, is a recent tweet by Chess Champion Kasparov.
It is quite worth reading you may enjoy . (Read the whole thread by clicking on below:.
A literal chessboard legend has long been used to illustrate geometric progression, doubling over and over, that is possible in an epidemic if drastic precautions are not taken. Math is not fear-mongering. <click here for the whole thread>

Another good is this youtube: https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
***
At present doubling time in USA is about 3 days, In India (from current data: 5 days) ..
Let us take a number 4 days - (actual number is not that important - just take what you think is most accurate)
And say the cases in USA is about 2000,

In One month ===> 360,000 cases
In Two months ===> 65, 000, 000

These numbers are serious..
(Similar numbers for India)
Fear is if chaos start (eg health care system break) that the death rate can become *much* worse than current

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Mar 2020 05:19

nam wrote:The issue I have with "social distancing" is the virus can stay on hard surfaces for 72 hours. You can stay away from people, but how can u stay away from something you cannot see?

The purpose of social distancing is twofold:
* To minimize the number of ways someone can pass it to you
AND
* To minimize the number of ways you can pass it to someone

It should be generally assumed that you might get it, and as long as you're not a high risk group, you'll do ok. The problem is that, compared to a seasonal flu, this generates far more cases of people requiring medical intervention, and a spike in transmission overwhelms the medical system.

Hard surfaces may still pass the virus, but the point is to have fewer people potentially touch it AND for them to interact with fewer people, which in turn reduces the transmission rate.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 14 Mar 2020 06:36

Let us hope that the heat and warm weather slows down the virus in India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 07:12

Rishirishi wrote:Let us hope that the heat and warm weather slows down the virus in India.

Hoping this is fine but, I am afraid, next 2-3 months are not going to be good. It will get worse before it gets better. Hopefully India may show the world how to fight this thing. More of my thoughts and some data - later.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 14 Mar 2020 07:14

Amber G. wrote:....
Let us take a number 4 days - (actual number is not that important - just take what you think is most accurate)
And say the cases in USA is about 2000,

In One month ===> 360,000 cases
In Two months ===> 65, 000, 000

These numbers are serious..
(Similar numbers for India)
Fear is if chaos start (eg health care system break) that the death rate can become *much* worse than current


Ji, you of all people (no offence, I mean that in the best possible way) should know the pitfalls of these kinds of calculations.

There used to be (still are) these pyramid schemes. Yakov Perelman (don't know if you've read his books) was very fond of listing them out. One of them (pyramid scheme, not Yakov Perelman book) was - "get a bicycle for just 10 Roubles!" (Russian/ Soviet context, nominal price of that bicycle being 50 Roubles). So the advertisers were offering to sell bikes to people for 20% of their nominal cost.

To the people who flipped and bought the coupons, came a kind of dampener or disappointment. Because what they got for their 10 Roubles wasn't a bike, but a set of four more coupons, which they had to sell to their friends for 10 Roubles each, and forward the proceeds to the original seller. So basically, the original seller did 20% of the work, and got these gullible souls to do the remaining 80%, the original seller wasn't losing any money (still getting 50 Roubles per bike), the buyers couldn't complain about being cheated, because they really *were* getting their bikes for 10 Roubles apiece, just that they had to find another 4 gullible friends to sell coupons to. And those 4 gullible friends would each receive 4 coupons from the original seller, to pass on to *their* friends.

What's wrong with this scheme? It's a classic pyramid scheme, with initial geometric growth. So one person ropes in 4 others, and the pyramid grows by that factor in each iteration. So please do the math - assuming even one initial buyer, with coupon sales occurring within a day each time, in 17 days, you get (4^17-1)/(4-1) people, who either got a bike, or are holding coupons. That is almost 6 billion people. Just that the scheme can't grow anymore, because we're at that point close to the population of the entire earth.

Actually, the scheme will run out of steam way before it gets to that stage. As these "willing friends" get used up, they are no longer going to support coupon sales. And the coupon holders will find it very hard to find "fresh buyers" to dispose of their coupons and claim their bikes.

Same way with these disease doubling times. As more and more people get infected, the infection rate will drastically drop (simply because it is going to be hard to come across folks who have never been infected), doubling time will increase, and these predictions of "within 2 months we will have 1/5th of the USA infected" are unlikely to come to pass (sincerely hope I don't end up eating these words, but I don't think I will). In fact, why stop with 2 months, why not extrapolate to the whole year? Because in less than 3 months we are going to run out of people in the world. And way before that, the infection rate will be drastically down, simply because it will be harder and harder to find uninfected people.

Hope that makes sense.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 07:21

Update: March 13 US Specific:

- UNITED STATES DECLARES NATIONAL EMERGENCY
According to Dr Fauci in today's Press conference: said:

"
These kind of things generally run out in a few months. Hopefully, we'll make it several weeks. Eight, nine, whatever weeks, but I can't give you a number, because it depends on how successful we are" (with mitigation and containment measures
)

- Complete shut down like in Italy and China is not off the table.

- It’s certainly going to get worse before it gets better ( About 8 weeks )

Worst Case Scenario by CDC (if no actions taken)

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected (Worst case scenario). Dr. Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist, provided a “best guess” projections of 96 million people

(See a slide I posted here before for that number!!)

- Could last months or even over a year

As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die. Dr. Lawler’s calculations: 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative

By contrast, 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season according to CDC.

2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

Source: CDC Main news papers.
Last edited by Amber G. on 14 Mar 2020 07:41, edited 1 time in total.

nachiket
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 14 Mar 2020 07:29

Amber G. wrote:Short, clear answer - exponential growth.
One of nice example, I have given all the time, is a recent tweet by Chess Champion Kasparov.
It is quite worth reading you may enjoy . (Read the whole thread by clicking on below:.
A literal chessboard legend has long been used to illustrate geometric progression, doubling over and over, that is possible in an epidemic if drastic precautions are not taken. Math is not fear-mongering. <click here for the whole thread>

Another good is this youtube: https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

That video shows clearly why we shouldn't be sanguine about the relatively low number of cases in India compared to SoKo or Italy (or even the US). It *could* mean that we are X times better than them at containment. Or it might just mean that we are X days behind them on the growth curve.

SriKumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 14 Mar 2020 07:40

Rishirishi wrote:Let us hope that the heat and warm weather slows down the virus in India.

I seriously think GOI (or someone) should perform a study on the effects of temperature (and miosture) on the virus. Is this a difficult (or impossible) test to do? Its survivability times at higher temperatures have to determined, given that so many people are pinning their hopes on this, and a large number of lives depend on it. Atleast they'll know how many cases they will have to deal with, depending on the temperature. Tweet someone in GOI on conducting this study.

nachiket
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 14 Mar 2020 07:51

It is better to proceed with the assumption that temperature has no effect and prepare for the worst.

Hari Seldon
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Hari Seldon » 14 Mar 2020 07:57

Suraj wrote:Herd immunity is one thing. What the Chinese and Italians saw was that the numbers who needed to go to hospital overwhelmed their medical systems. It's a given that herd immunity will build, but it seems the real consequence is that Britain is prepared to let some die off without doing anything about it.


Rumor is that its all a conspiracy to escape pension liabilities by the UKstani state.

No pensioners == no pension liabilities! Win-win! /Sarc off.

Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 08:10

SriKumar wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Let us hope that the heat and warm weather slows down the virus in India.

I seriously think GOI (or someone) should perform a study on the effects of temperature (and miosture) on the virus. Is this a difficult (or impossible) test to do? Its survivability times at higher temperatures have to determined, given that so many people are pinning their hopes on this. Tweet someone in GOI.

SriKumarji - Rest assured that GOI has lots of data and this study (and *many* similar and other studies are constantly being done in India (and other places too). Slightly OT but at lest two top scientists with NaMo's ear happens to be IITK alum and are extremely good in such things.:)

On the side note - the data I have collected, I can give (and have given) access to *serious* researchers --there are many such places where data from all the countries is there, open to researchers outside a pay wall.
***
There are two aspects (as I think) for this kind of study:
- Effect of temperature on Virus (and replication ityadi) in lab conditions.
- Effect of temperature/moisture on how long the virus lasts in Air / surfaces - and have some idea on R0 when temperature/moisture changes.

Do some mathematical modeling on how it will effect the spread. (We can use physics to calculate how long airborne virus drops will remain when temperature changes etc -- but that's only one factor)

Another is use statistical analysis on existing data - requires lot of data mining - And look for true correlation -- (How does one know that change in spread is due to social habits like shaking or not shaking hands vs what was the temperature where the infection happened.)

***
There are some papers/studies already out .. If I get some time, I will post here some of their findings.. but in short there is no clear cut hope that summer will save India. (The doubling time for India (and other "summer" places from what I see suddenly got too much fluctuation in last few days :( .. more of it later when I get more time to look at data )

hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 14 Mar 2020 08:11

SriKumar wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Let us hope that the heat and warm weather slows down the virus in India.

I seriously think GOI (or someone) should perform a study on the effects of temperature (and miosture) on the virus. Is this a difficult (or impossible) test to do? Its survivability times at higher temperatures have to determined, given that so many people are pinning their hopes on this, and a large number of lives depend on it. Atleast they'll know how many cases they will have to deal with, depending on the temperature. Tweet someone in GOI on conducting this study.


Even if they did they wouldn't let it out until it is proven by actual happenings. Also it will make people careless if they think they are safe. And regardless of temperature, contact spreading is still there.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Mar 2020 08:21

I understand the importance of finding out the temperature resistance of the virus but that should not cloud us from the URGENT concern:

Social isolation ASAP

This is analogous to steering away the Titanic . The real transmission rate is more than official numbers. It’s not a matter of official failure - by the time you’ve observed or tested positive, you’ve already transmitted it . Like the Titanic, how early you urgently steer the ship had everything to do with how flat the curve will be .

So the point here is to immediately enforce lockdown, then wait and count cases, or conduct studies on transmission rate vs temp or humidity . Meanwhile wait and see what the real transmission rate was, and how much that converts to hospital case rate . Same as with the Titanic - turn wheel and hope you were early enough. Data from those who faced this offers a picture of how late might be too late - it seems the US admin got a serious warning that literally each passing hour counted.


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