Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Suresh S
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suresh S » 14 Mar 2020 20:14

Than my apologies

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Mar 2020 20:24

saip wrote:Suresh S, everyone is NOT a 'he' especially Amber G.


Let's just say he's a he and end it there. In the US, the mortality rate is around 2% including the cluster of old folk homes in Washington state. I would be expecting from places like NYC and Philadelphia to see higher mortality rates. We haven't seen that yet. We don't know how well this virus lives in warmer temperatures. In India we will see how much more this virus spreads, but authorities there have taken early quarantine measures.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 14 Mar 2020 20:27

Spain reports 609 new cases of coronavirus and 58 new deaths, raising total to 5,841 cases and 191 dead.

Draft decree says lockdown in Spain would start on Monday morning, according to local media. People would only be allowed to go out to buy basic needs or to go to work.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 20:54

To doctors and other stake holders here in USA: Please consider signing it. c
Open Letter to Vice President Mike Pence RE: US COVID-19 Response]

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 14 Mar 2020 21:19

^^^ Yikes. That's a lot of items and lot of logistics that need to be initated and completed. It involves several different departments- cabinet level or otherwise (finance, medical equipment production, medicine production, housing, education, CDC, defense e.g. National Guard etc.) THis is not looking promising that the doctors had to make a public appeal; if the govt started today, these initiatives can take 2-3 weeks atleast- with a well-oiled administration. In other news, I read yesterday that DOD (PEntagon) has reduced or curtailed all domestic travel due to Wuhan virus. Sensible step, IMO. By their very nature, their assessments have to be absolutely practical and grounded in reality. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics ... index.html
Last edited by SriKumar on 14 Mar 2020 21:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 14 Mar 2020 21:20

Today China reported only 11 new cases. I am sure Mr Eleven will be immensely happy. Looks like whatever China did, they did it right. During this month their new case graph is practically flat. Hope we can learn something from them. I know the practices of China will be very difficult to enforce in democracies like US and India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 21:22

Very important public health warning from the French Surgeon General about how ibuprofen might "aggravate" coronavirus. (The tweet is from a verified account ).

@olivierveran
·
Warning sign #COVIDー19 | La prise d'anti-inflammatoires (ibuprofène, cortisone, ...) pourrait être un facteur d'aggravation de l’infection. En cas de fièvre, prenez du paracétamol.

Si vous êtes déjà sous anti-inflammatoires ou en cas de doute, demandez conseil à votre médecin.

(Anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone, ...) could be a factor in worsening the infection. If you have a fever, take paracetamol. If you are already on anti-inflammatory drugs or in doubt, ask your doctor for advice.
Link https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1238776545398923264?s=20

(Ibuprofen is used in a very similar way to paracetamol.(in USA it is called Panadol).the main difference is that ibuprofen reduces inflammation- - a type of drug called a non-steroidal anti inflammatory)
Last edited by Amber G. on 14 Mar 2020 21:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 14 Mar 2020 21:34

saip wrote:Today China reported only 11 new cases. I am sure Mr Eleven will be immensely happy. Looks like whatever China did, they did it right. During this month their new case graph is practically flat. Hope we can learn something from them. I know the practices of China will be very difficult to enforce in democracies like US and India.

I think the world cannot go on like this. A closed, totalitarian state with dictatorial control at the central level doing whatever it pleases has brought Europe to a stop, and it seems like other major nations (US, India) may not be far behind. Clearly, the virus has shown that China's internal policies are not internal anymore.

I would estimate atleat 50% to 80% of US population has already been affected in a direct manner- in terms of one or more of the following- panic buying and fear for the future, school closures forcing daycare decisions, university lockdowns leading to missed classes and online learning, work from home- (what about those who dont do computer jobs), canceled business travel, cancelled meetings within a business, loss of jobs (tourism, hotel, restaurants, airlines industry, conventions, conferences), slowed business, service industry will get hit, loss of stock market wealth, limiting/damaging a company's liquidity due to stock market swings etc. And this is clearly not the worst of it. When stuff like this happens to such a large segment of population half-way round the globe due to some 'internal' factors, it stands to reason that these factors are not internal any more, in their very real effecrs and negative consequences. Something's gotta change.
Last edited by SriKumar on 14 Mar 2020 21:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby rgosain » 14 Mar 2020 21:41

saip wrote:Today China reported only 11 new cases. I am sure Mr Eleven will be immensely happy. Looks like whatever China did, they did it right. During this month their new case graph is practically flat. Hope we can learn something from them. I know the practices of China will be very difficult to enforce in democracies like US and India.


Fits in perfectly with the PRC modus operandi of creating a problem, or certainly exploiting one to gain an advantage, so that they can solve it to their advantage. These frequent "outbreaks" give china first mover advantage in developing countermeasures and detection

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/china-sends-essential-coronavirus-supplies-italy-200313195241031.html

This entire episode leaves much of the world at the mercy of Xi and PRC.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 14 Mar 2020 21:44

SwamyG wrote:Why does Russia have low numbers?
..
Don't know but will share a 1931 Soviet Poster " Wash your hands after work and before eating. Dirty hands are a source of infection" :)
Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby rgosain » 14 Mar 2020 21:45

Wash your hands before you go to the loo and after and use an ipa based spray is the advice from many synthetic chemists

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 14 Mar 2020 22:27

At home - the Andaman islands are going into lockdown from the 16th to 26th (will be reviewed on 23rd). While it is unfortunate that my holiday was cancelled literally hours before boarding the flight, it is good that this is being taken seriously. Still - its difficult to understand why the Andamans - with no cases and a hot climate have a shutdown, while Goa (more foreign tourists) and J&K /Himachal (colder) don't.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 14 Mar 2020 22:36

Important to protect it for strategic reasons. Cannot afford for it to get infected as it is far away from mainland and has high concentration of defense personnel.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 14 Mar 2020 22:39

Amber G. wrote:
disha wrote:[
Definitely. In past hour, 2 people did die in India due to road accidents.

So why the panic on Coronavirus?

Short, clear answer - exponential growth.
One of nice example, I have given all the time, is a recent tweet by Chess Champion Kasparov.


1. Kasparov is a racist.
2. The chess example is from Indian mathematics and was elucidated (not euclidiated) c400 AD
3. In terms of rice grains: @400 Giga metric tonnes is a lot of rice. I think it will take @1million years for the entire world to produce that much rice.

Your point is that the number of cases will continue at geometric progression till it consumes the entire world and we will be doomed. Of course virus will jump interspecies and also infect the inner solar system first of martians, the venusians, then the mercurians. Later it will reach out to saturnians and beyond and stop only at uranasians.

Problem with that scheme is the same with other diseases, like HIV. There is no HIV vaccine. And HIV has not consumed the rest of world. Of course Wuhan virus is more communicable than HIV and maybe as easy as Rhinovirus. In effect, it will run its course of easily infected persons faster and its rate of infection will fall <1. Sudarshan'ji also pointed out the same thing.

However I am sure that the uranasians will soon be infected with coronavirus in a matter of months. Since your graphs and slides say so.

Problem with tossing around numbers like 1/5th of humanity will be infected in <n> days etc. is that it does create scaremongering since the underlying assumptions are very nuanced and generally goes unchallenged.

One of your concerns was that test kits are not available and everybody must have an equal opportunity for test kits. I provided the livelock problem scenario and another poster pointed out that sending people to test centers will unnecessarily expose them to actual infection!

Having said that, if we do not call it Wuhan Virus, at least call it DaronaVirus (Scary Virus). (changing gears)

sohamn wrote:Furthermore, it's in our nature to care for the elderly. So while panic doesn't help in any situation, being concerned, informed and watchful might help overcome the situation.


Of course., Concerned, informed and watchful is the eternal requirement. Whether it is WuhanVirus, DaronaVirus or Nipah. However, not panicking is not the same as uncaring for elders.

Suraj wrote:The transmission curve. That is central to it from a public policymaking perspective. It's important to ensure social separation in order to flatten the curve, because we have no immunity or treatment for it, and a high transmission rate and level of virulence generates a far greater number of people needing hospitalized care, which the system cannot cope with.

It's not scary - it's that people are doing things that are contrary to clear common sense rationale in this situation by behaving ignorantly or outright recklessly.


Thanks for cogently pointing out the above.Without unnecessary panic and rational observation.

Here is my thought exercise:

1. There is no clarity about the R0 on WuhanVirus. Is it 2 or is it 4?
2. There is no clarity on the CFR. Is it 3% or 5%? Based on indications from Italy/China we can assume it is @3.5%

Given the above, how long will social distancing help? Yes, there is talk about flattening the transmission curve. However, that is not universal within a country, state, county, city or a settlement! The graphs and slides with numbers look nice. People quoting chess champions look smart. Still, it does not give anyone any clue on how the transmission curve will behave in say California vs. Texas. In SF vs LA? In N. Calif vs. S. California? In Seattle vs. Washington DC.

Instead of specific guidelines, one has panic-driven general mumbo-jumbo on how many sick will there be and how with quarantine we will all survive by 'flattening' the transmission curve and not overwhelm the health-care system. What we get is panic-driven 'sky is falling' messages and scaremongering on how this or that administration is clueless.

And how S. Korea is the land of the brave and smart and how China saved the world! To put it in perspective, S. Korea is just 25% larger in population than California. What stopped from state governors of Washington or California to start building test kits? Why the governor of California never woke up to the possibility that contagion is a direct flight away to SFO or LAX? Heck, the movie Contagion was made in LA, CA!

Here is what I understand:

1. "Flattening' the transmission curve is just one tool in the belt. A rusty hammer. A lot depends on public behavior after 1 or 2 or 3 days of quarantine. There is no guarantee that the desired outcome of flattening the transmission curve is achievable. Since several factors are at play here.

2. There is a dearth of health care professionals. Not many nursing assistants, doctors etc.

3. The health care facility is not geared to handle such heavy loads.

So what are the alternatives?

1. Why cannot indoor and outdoor stadiums be converted into first and second level health care facilities?
2. Why not empty parking buildings be converted to triage facilities?
3. Why not extra tents be procured from all over the state and country to start setting up health care facilities now?
4. Why not start moving health care professionals? Start sensitizing the private insurance industry?

Problem is, whenever we do dhoti shiver and sky is falling scenarios, we tend to not focus on the outcomes.

If I were given a proposition that 1 Million will die and 50 million infected, my first ask will be - how will I save those 49 million other than shipping them off to an island? Or creating a panic?

Instead what I get is, sign this petition or that petition and how come the VP did not advise if seniors should travel or not! Is this what we have been reduced to?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Mar 2020 23:40

^^^Some of this panic is being driven by the AHA (American Hospital Association) who are salivating at the prospect of getting more money. Hospitalization charges are a scam in the US.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 14 Mar 2020 23:47

https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... a8f03a2f2b
Harvard Epidemiologist
“I Don’t Think the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore”

In an interview, Harvard Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch explains why the novel coronavirus is so dangerous – and the need for drastic measures to stop its spread.
Interview Conducted By Martin Schlak, 10.03.2020

DER SPIEGEL: You predict that up to 60 percent of adults could become infected with the novel coronavirus. Isn’t that alarmist?
Lipsitch: I don't think so. It's of course a projection and, like any projection, it could be wrong. But if you have a reproductive number of an infectious disease of around two, which seems to be the estimates that we're getting right now (Eds: meaning that, on average, each infected person transmits the disease to two other people), then at a minimum, half the adult population needs to become infected before the spread can stop permanently. This is not an ungrounded estimation, but simply the basic math of epidemics.
DER SPIEGEL: Back in 2003, the World Health Organization warned that SARS could become a global epidemic. In the end, however, there were significantly fewer cases than the coronavirus has already caused as of today.
Lipsitch: Yes, but there was the risk that it could have become an epidemic. However, with SARS, almost all transmissions seem to have been in symptomatic patients, so you could control the spread more easily. That seems to be different with the virus that causes COVID-19. And our job as epidemiologists is to think about worst-case scenarios so we can spur the right actions to stop an epidemic.
DER SPIEGEL: If your prediction turns out to be true, how many people will die from the coronavirus?
Lipsitch: I don't want to speculate at this time. We think that around 1 or 2 percent of the symptomatic people died, but we don’t know how many people are really infected. It’s like an iceberg with the severe cases at the top level and the asymptomatic ones underneath the surface. We won't know how big the latter part of the iceberg is - and thus the true fatality rate – until the outbreak is over.
DER SPIEGEL: Can the virus still be contained?
Lipsitch: I don’t think the virus can be stopped anymore. It’s too late for that. In the United States, but also in Germany, we see transmission that isn't linked to anything known. So, the virus has already spread locally. That does seem to be a sign of things in some areas being out of hand.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 00:19

hanumadu wrote:A piece of sh*t google employee was tested positive in bangalore. He hand his wife were quarantined in their house in bangalore. The lady escaped from their house and travelled by air and then train to agra and stayed with her family with 8 other members.
House quarantine is really dependent on people showing some common sense.

The kerala family which mingled with nearly a 1000 people, they are all being told to house quarantine themselves. Wonder how effective it is. They should be told in no uncertain terms that any body breaks the quarantine is liable for murder charges.
I wonder what their status is now. It's been 4 or five days since they have been exposed to the family. Are any of them showing signs of infection?

It shows how deeply we humans are social, and go back to family in terms of calamity and ultimate stress. Last year, I was in desh. My eldest son (21yr) was diagnosed with Dengue on the day of return to maasa. He had just traveled from Hyderabad to Benguluru. The doctor said no travel back to maasa. Then we took several second hand opinions, some of the doctors did not think it was Dengue. Then I took the opinion of at least 3-4 doctors from BRF. BRFites doctors all advised no travel to maasa, as maasa was ill-equipped to handle Dengue. Only the southern states in maasa would even remotely be able to handle it.

So then consulted the doctors again, if it was communicable disease from person to person. They said it was not. And a mosquito had to bite him and infect another human. So we flew him back to Hyderabad so that SHQ could be with her family and take care of him. I had to fly back to maasa with my second son....as his school had started.

When shit hits the fan....we think of our parents, siblings and extended family. Ultimately they will suffer along with us. Blood is thicker than Brandy.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 00:22

rsingh wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Why does Russia have low numbers?


They started to isolate possible carriers (Chinese) at very early stage. Drivers of public transport were instructed to spot any Chinese looking passenger.
Seriously , it has to do high carb diet of Russians and Nordic population. Lots of potatoes and dairy products. Yachminaya Kasha ( it taste like millet) is staple food for Ruskies.

SHQ got introduced to the "Millet Man" of India a few weeks ago. Our family had switched to Millets because of that. Also I had some knee problems late last year....and I wanted to get back in shape. Stopped eating white rice, and substituted with millets. There is no craving for rice - strangely. Also came up with a routine for the family that involves asanas, pranayama and dhyana (20-25 mns total). I already lost 3 pounds in a month. I am eating all the traditional food that we cook at home.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 15 Mar 2020 00:26

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Some of this panic is being driven by the AHA (American Hospital Association) who are salivating at the prospect of getting more money. Hospitalization charges are a scam in the US.


I think it is time to panic. US has a very poor health system, with only 2,77 hospital beds, compared to China with 4,34 and South Koreas 12,11 per 1000 people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds

Tragically no one spends more on health then US citizens. 17% of GDP which is far above Korea with 8%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268826/health-expenditure-as-gdp-percentage-in-oecd-countries/

Thanks to freedom of choice, Americans will have to bid for the few beds available. The ones who loose the bid will not get breathing ventilators and choke from death.

I hope the US public take a good look at the facts when comparing public health systems with the one in US.
Last edited by Rishirishi on 15 Mar 2020 00:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 00:29


If it is viral in nature, how can there be a cure? Is the treatment only to keep the symptoms under control, giving the human the time ? I thought common cold, flu etc cannot be really cured? Either one gets vaccinated for the flu like diseases, or if it comes we just treat the patient to make life more tolerable until the virus goes away on its own?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 00:40

This Wuhan virus thingie in America is like the Global Warming thing, it has become totally political in nature. The Democrats are taking every chance to slight Trump, and use it as a chance to get Trump from getting re-elected. Democrats will do anything to help the economy tank. Seriously, they will not hesitate to crash the market, tank the economy, if they can stop Trump. On the other side, the Republicans will go crying everything is good, there is no virus, accidents and flu kill more people, America khatre mein hain.

Very typical American response.

ps: Maasa economy was fundamentally good until this scare. Now it is going to take shit beating.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 00:45

g.sarkar wrote:Lipsitch: I don’t think the virus can be stopped anymore. It’s too late for that. In the United States, but also in Germany, we see transmission that isn't linked to anything known. So, the virus has already spread locally. That does seem to be a sign of things in some areas being out of hand.
.....
Gautam


Then why worry about it anymore, if it's truly out of hand? Enjoy the few days that we all have left on this planet.

In any serious situation, there is one group of people who get gloomy satisfaction out of taking their most extreme personal worries and making the direst predictions out of them. While we are all enamored of experts, it helps to remember that they are also human. So is this man saying that nothing can be done anymore?

This "transmission that isn't linked to anything known...." is that really so hard to understand? The USA especially (don't know about Germany) is extremely lax about certain aspects of hygiene.

* Especially that which involves footwear, saliva and body fluids

* Pets and *their* saliva and body fluids (sharing food or beds with pets, after taking them out for a walk, where they roll in the dust, dirt, leaves, etc.)

* Toilet habits (like taking food into public toilets, carrying your laptop bag or grocery bag in there and leaving it on the floor while taking a dump, etc.)

* Not washing hands (ever)

* Often even making out with cute strangers just because you can't resist certain of their anatomical features

* Tailgating (by which is meant - loading a bunch of food and vessels into the trunk of your car - you know, the same place where you throw in your boat, your dog, your hypodermic needles..., driving over to a friend's place, and then sharing that food with a dozen others)

* Bar-room habits (getting drunk, not even knowing what you are doing anymore or doing things on a dare, passing out and being carried home by strangers, if you're a girl - passing out, getting hauled by some stranger guy to *his* home and performing "services" in an unconscious state - not kidding at all here, regularly get reports of this kind of thing, especially near universities)

* Blind-dating strangers

* Handling food after filling gas in your car - those gas pumps are known to be magnets for disease vectors

* Building leaf-piles in the fall for your kids to jump into, after which they come in and have dinner without washing up...

* Oh, and the paper money is tainted, some say that 80% of the $1 bills in the USA have traces of cocaine on them, God knows what else they carry, definitely a great infection route

Nowadays we have more routes - those styluses and touch screens in public places, those are magnets for infection as well.

The list is endless. Why be surprised about this "mysterious community transmission?" There are numerous routes for one infected guy to never come face to face with, or enter the same building as, another healthy guy, and still infect him/ her. I think some of these distancing and hygiene measures need to be made permanent, after we get over the current scare (confident that we will) - especially this shaking hands, a lot more emphasis on educating people about washing hands, watching this sharing of body fluids, especially those of pets (yuck!), etc. Hand sanitizers are something I personally am not fond of, they are going to kill off the beneficial bacteria on your skin as well. Yes, a lot of the bacteria on your skin are beneficial.

To those wondering - "OMG, how do we ever navigate all these dangers?" You minimize your risk by being careful about personal hygiene. Limit all contact with iffy surfaces to hands, don't touch your face or hair with your hands in public places, until you get home and get a chance to wash up, shower regularly, don't enter the kitchen fresh from a trip outside - wash up first, all those kinds of age-old-wisdom thingies which we used to learn in India (don't know about that anymore). Now is the time to start taking a good look at those recommendations and re-adopt them.
Last edited by sudarshan on 15 Mar 2020 01:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pravula » 15 Mar 2020 00:49

SwamyG wrote:

If it is viral in nature, how can there be a cure? Is the treatment only to keep the symptoms under control, giving the human the time ? I thought common cold, flu etc cannot be really cured? Either one gets vaccinated for the flu like diseases, or if it comes we just treat the patient to make life more tolerable until the virus goes away on its own?


Antivirals. You don't have to wait it out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 01:12

But I got to say - Italy truly shot itself in the foot with this one, and is now enjoying the august company of Iran. They are adding China-levels of infected people per day, with 5% of China's population. Deaths are showing no sign of slowing, going along at a merry clip. What the heck did they do to get it that bad? Just overall stupidity and official-level indifference? They're infecting the rest of Europe as well, making a good case for a set of punitive measures on these bunglers from the rest of the world.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 01:20

disha wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Short, clear answer - exponential growth.
One of nice example, I have given all the time, is a recent tweet by Chess Champion Kasparov.


1. Kasparov is a racist.
2. The chess example is from Indian mathematics and was elucidated (not euclidiated) c400 AD
3. In terms of rice grains: @400 Giga metric tonnes is a lot of rice. I think it will take @1million years for the entire world to produce that much rice.


I didn't see that link, but if this is about that "1 grain of rice for the first chessboard square, 2 for the second, 4 for the third" - then yes, this legend is from India. Shri Yakov Perelman (author from the Former Soviet Union, of several entertaining books on maths and physics) has mentioned this legend in several of his books, and unambiguously and reverently given the credit to India in every case. Kudos to him for that. Ya. Perelman was fascinated by these geometric progressions resulting in unbelievably huge numbers, and mentions numerous examples of them.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 15 Mar 2020 01:37

^^ You left out our jootha. There is no single word translation which is telling.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 01:42

sanjaykumar wrote:^^ You left out our jootha. There is no single word translation which is telling.


Yes there is :). "Yechhal" in Tamil.

No single word in English, you mean :).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 15 Mar 2020 01:46

https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... e618f3b06b
Spread of Coronavirus
Why Are There So Many Cases in Italy?
Italy has by far the largest number of novel coronavirus cases in Europe. But why? There are many reasons, and recognizing them could be vital for other countries around the world.
By Julia Merlot, 12.03.2020.

More than 10,100 people. That is how many people in Italy have been infected by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday. It is the highest number outside of China. And it is by far the most of any country in Europe.
By way of comparison, France has the second-highest number of cases in Europe, with around 1,700 and Germany is in fourth with 1,300, behind Spain. And there is another number that pops off the page: 631. That is the number of people in Italy who have died thus far. That isn't just the highest number in Europe by far in absolute terms, it calculates to a death rate of 6 percent, which is unusually high.
In China, where there have been 81,000 infections thus far, according to WHO, the death rate is under 4 percent, and WHO has calculated a global rate of between 3 and 4 percent. That means that out of 100 people proven to be suffering from COVID-19, an average of three to four will die.
Why Is Italy Different?
The difference between the rate in Italy and the rate calculated by WHO may seem small. But if you apply the lower rate of 3.5 percent to the number of cases discovered in Italy thus far, it would mean 270 fewer deaths. The more people get infected, the greater the discrepancy in absolute numbers will become. What, then, makes the outbreak in Italy different?
Before we try to answer that question, it is important to make a crucial point: Experts assume that there is a huge number of cases out there that haven't yet been discovered. The real global death rate could actually be far lower than the numbers mentioned above. Virologists actually believe the number is closer to 0.7 percent or so.
There are, though, several possible reasons for the extremely high death rate among those confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. One is the population's average age: Italy's is the oldest in Europe, with a median age of 46.3 years. Because it's a median, it means that half of the country's population is older than that. In Europe as a whole, the median age is 43.1 years. Logically enough, in older societies, there are more people suffering from pre-existing health problems and who are susceptible to severe symptoms.
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Gautam

vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 15 Mar 2020 02:12

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-c ... s-n1158476

Doctors push for treatment of coronavirus with blood from recovered patients
"This is an opportunity to do something proactive that can help fight this," a Johns Hopkins doctor said.

In the absence of vaccines or antiviral drugs, researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore say the key to slowing and treating the coronavirus might be hidden in the blood of those who’ve already recovered from the disease.

The method of using “convalescent serum” — essentially harvesting virus-fighting antibodies from the blood of previously infected patients — dates back more than a century, but has not been used widely in the United States in decades.

sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 15 Mar 2020 02:28

sudarshan wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:^^ You left out our jootha. There is no single word translation which is telling.


Yes there is :). "Yechhal" in Tamil.

No single word in English, you mean :).



Hehehe So the Dravadian theory bites the dust. :rotfl:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 03:03

pravula wrote:
SwamyG wrote:If it is viral in nature, how can there be a cure? Is the treatment only to keep the symptoms under control, giving the human the time ? I thought common cold, flu etc cannot be really cured? Either one gets vaccinated for the flu like diseases, or if it comes we just treat the patient to make life more tolerable until the virus goes away on its own?


Antivirals. You don't have to wait it out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug

Thanks, I remember vaguely that....the common advice even among doctors is "it is viral....it has to run its course".

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 15 Mar 2020 03:05

hanumadu wrote:https://futurism.com/neoscope/weather-coronavirus-warm-study

In a moment when the world seems more desperate than ever for the slightest ray of hope, here’s some (literally) sunny news:

Warm weather has been correlated with a slowdown in the spread of COVID-19.

What does this mean for the southern hemisphere? This could be an insane disaster in the making for highly populated but poorer countries in Africa... Their winter will soon begin.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 03:09

sudarshan wrote:This "transmission that isn't linked to anything known...." is that really so hard to understand? The USA especially (don't know about Germany) is extremely lax about certain aspects of hygiene.

* Especially that which involves footwear, saliva and body fluids

* Pets and *their* saliva and body fluids (sharing food or beds with pets, after taking them out for a walk, where they roll in the dust, dirt, leaves, etc.)

* Toilet habits (like taking food into public toilets, carrying your laptop bag or grocery bag in there and leaving it on the floor while taking a dump, etc.)

* Not washing hands (ever)

* Often even making out with cute strangers just because you can't resist certain of their anatomical features

* Tailgating (by which is meant - loading a bunch of food and vessels into the trunk of your car - you know, the same place where you throw in your boat, your dog, your hypodermic needles..., driving over to a friend's place, and then sharing that food with a dozen others)

* Bar-room habits (getting drunk, not even knowing what you are doing anymore or doing things on a dare, passing out and being carried home by strangers, if you're a girl - passing out, getting hauled by some stranger guy to *his* home and performing "services" in an unconscious state - not kidding at all here, regularly get reports of this kind of thing, especially near universities)

* Blind-dating strangers

* Handling food after filling gas in your car - those gas pumps are known to be magnets for disease vectors

* Building leaf-piles in the fall for your kids to jump into, after which they come in and have dinner without washing up...

* Oh, and the paper money is tainted, some say that 80% of the $1 bills in the USA have traces of cocaine on them, God knows what else they carry, definitely a great infection route

Nowadays we have more routes - those styluses and touch screens in public places, those are magnets for infection as well.

The list is endless. Why be surprised about this "mysterious community transmission?" There are numerous routes for one infected guy to never come face to face with, or enter the same building as, another healthy guy, and still infect him/ her. I think some of these distancing and hygiene measures need to be made permanent, after we get over the current scare (confident that we will) - especially this shaking hands, a lot more emphasis on educating people about washing hands, watching this sharing of body fluids, especially those of pets (yuck!), etc. Hand sanitizers are something I personally am not fond of, they are going to kill off the beneficial bacteria on your skin as well. Yes, a lot of the bacteria on your skin are beneficial.

To those wondering - "OMG, how do we ever navigate all these dangers?" You minimize your risk by being careful about personal hygiene. Limit all contact with iffy surfaces to hands, don't touch your face or hair with your hands in public places, until you get home and get a chance to wash up, shower regularly, don't enter the kitchen fresh from a trip outside - wash up first, all those kinds of age-old-wisdom thingies which we used to learn in India (don't know about that anymore). Now is the time to start taking a good look at those recommendations and re-adopt them.

Spot on....and your post is more scarier than Amber's :-)))))))

Wearing footwear even on bed is something Hollywood routinely shows. Eating with all hands, licking and slurping all the time. Taking pets to the next level.....

Ancient Indians must have gone through multiple endemics like this, to have arrived at several of the customs that have been handed down over to us.

Oh well, hope all of us see through this troubling and scary times. May our pitrs, devas and rishis protect all of us, and our dear & near.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 15 Mar 2020 03:27

Italy reports 3,497 new cases of coronavirus and 175 new deaths, raising total to 21,157 cases and 1,441 dead.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 15 Mar 2020 03:29

India-wide Corona infections touch 100, Maharashtra has most cases 31 followed by Kerala 22.

Kerala to carry out coronavirus screening at all road-rail entry points. Kerala CM: The plan is to check all passengers in a train when it reaches the first station inside Kerala. Multiple teams will be deployed at various railway stations near Karnataka & Tamil Nadu borders. 24 points identified on highways & checking will be done there.

While Kerala Health Minister @shailajateacher taking max measures to control spread of #coronavirus, Kerala Excise Minister TP Tamakrishnan Confirms that Corona will NOT spread through #Liquor Outlets and NO need to shut them.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2020 03:37

Sigh, if only the governments world over laid down stricker border controls for people coming in, like the Taiwanese did, this could have been so much prevented.

If the virus had originated from an Africa country, there would have ban on travelers right away. Just becoz countries didn't want to be on the bad side of "Chinese money", a total disaster is unfolding in front on us..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2020 03:39

I so hope, some company comes up with a portable testing kit, which gives quick result, so that people can be isolated right away.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 15 Mar 2020 04:07

sooraj wrote:India-wide Corona infections touch 100, Maharashtra has most cases 31 followed by Kerala 22.

Kerala to carry out coronavirus screening at all road-rail entry points. Kerala CM: The plan is to check all passengers in a train when it reaches the first station inside Kerala. Multiple teams will be deployed at various railway stations near Karnataka & Tamil Nadu borders. 24 points identified on highways & checking will be done there.

While Kerala Health Minister @shailajateacher taking max measures to control spread of #coronavirus, Kerala Excise Minister TP Tamakrishnan Confirms that Corona will NOT spread through #Liquor Outlets and NO need to shut them.


The checking everyone at the railway station is not scalable. Inter city travel should be banned, other than transporting essential items.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 15 Mar 2020 04:48

nam wrote:I so hope, some company comes up with a portable testing kit, which gives quick result, so that people can be isolated right away.


An antibody test kit is coming from Roche.


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