Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 15 Mar 2020 07:10

vijayk wrote:Image

Looks like the Mediterranean climate is likely to be the worst affected. Places like Chile, South Africa and Australia better watch out come summer. But so least these are richer nations with better healthcare system in place.

But how comes Egypt, turkey and North Africa are not so badly hurt? Too warm?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 07:17

vijayk wrote:....


Similar climate, or similar weather? If climate - that implies that the hot-spots will not shift. If weather - that implies that the hot-spots will shift with seasonal changes. I assume they mean weather (experts should be able to keep their terminology straight).

If weather, then we should be seeing cases right now in southern Chile and Argentina (Tierra del Fuego, Islas Malvinas also).

EDIT:

CM's post actually gives it away - if the "Mediterranean climate is worst affected," as CM says, then India doesn't have to worry so much, India has the monsoon climate, not the Mediterranean climate. Russia and Canada don't have to worry, nor Australia nor Africa - none of them have the Mediterranean climate.

So, it's probably weather that they are talking about, just that the Mediterranean region has that weather pattern right now.
Last edited by sudarshan on 15 Mar 2020 07:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 15 Mar 2020 07:24

Perhaps some of this social distancing and isolation will cause people in this consumerism crazed, Protestant work ethic driven world to take breath and enjoy a more simple, meaningful life, devoid of unnecessary trappings and stress.

Who knows, maybe we'll never go back to that dark frenzied world of 9 to 6 and 60 hour work weeks..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 15 Mar 2020 07:35

sudarshan wrote:
Ji, you of all people (no offence, I mean that in the best possible way) should know the pitfalls of these kinds of calculations.
...
Actually, the scheme will run out of steam way before it gets to that Hope that makes sense.


in short it is a system of nonlinear diffeqs. same with rabbits breeding in a closed resource limited environment in which rabbits might die off due to crowding and infectious disease jumping from one rabbit to the other as the number of rabbits inside the circle whose radius is equal to the distance the pathogen can cross. of course, that radius is not sharply defined. it would be a random variable.

simple mathematical models, however solid that are, may not give the right picture unless nonlinear nature of the real situation is not captured in the model.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 15 Mar 2020 07:36

Amber G. wrote:To doctors and other stake holders here in USA: Please consider signing it. c
Open Letter to Vice President Mike Pence RE: US COVID-19 Response]


The above is political campaigning in crises. With utter disregard how public health infrastructure works in US. Of course the goals in the open letter above are laudable and important in its own, but it does come across as a temper tantrum.

Some of the items in the above are not even related to public health!

Coming back to the point of public health, in US it is local state or county level concern. Even the WuhanVirus outbreak in Washington state was first addressed by the governor and then federal authorities stepped in *only* when they were invited by the state authorities. Same as in India.

A close analog of Taiwan (which some one mentioned earlier) would be either Texas or Florida. So monitor how Texas or Florida performs and compare that to Taiwan.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 15 Mar 2020 07:37

nachiket wrote:It is better to proceed with the assumption that temperature has no effect and prepare for the worst.

in that case, resource usage will be underoptimized.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 15 Mar 2020 07:39

Vayutuvan wrote:simple mathematical models, however solid that are, may not give the right picture unless nonlinear nature of the real situation is not captured in the model.


Since the nonlinear nature of the real situation is difficult to model, it is never captured in the model and then people wonder why the model fails?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 15 Mar 2020 07:41

sanjaykumar wrote:Chinese are inveterate smokers, possibly contributing to susceptibility. Again data are lacking. Hope Italians release data on smoking and risk. Anyway might be good to warn Indians of cigs and beedis in preparation for the coming storm. Even a few days or weeks may improve lung toilet and function.

French smoke a lot as well so do British.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 15 Mar 2020 07:43

Do not use weather. Correlate with UV incidence. Indian villages will be less impacted than cities because of less air-pollution. Cutting down on air pollution does result in higher incidence of UV. And UV is an effective germicidal.

Is the WuhanVirus under control now in China because the air pollution cleared out due to industrial inactivity?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 15 Mar 2020 07:45

disha wrote:
Vayutuvan wrote:simple mathematical models, however solid that are, may not give the right picture unless nonlinear nature of the real situation is not captured in the model.


Since the nonlinear nature of the real situation is difficult to model, it is never captured in the model and then people wonder why the model fails?


some no linearity can be modeled. iterative methods will work, I.e. converge, as long as the equations are not very stiff. stiffness can be controlled by external measures like social distancin, i.e. designing a mechanism.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 15 Mar 2020 07:59

Vayutuvan wrote:some no linearity can be modeled. iterative methods will work, I.e. converge, as long as the equations are not very stiff. stiffness can be controlled by external measures like social distancin, i.e. designing a mechanism.


My point is that it is not impossible. It is just difficult and hence non-linearity is not absorbed in the model. The difficulty need not be algorithmic. It can be just simple lack of data! For example, HIPAA rules prevent insurers from sharing data. This leads to big gaps in understanding non-linearity and modeling it.

Hence my angst against simply throwing out numbers like 65 million will contract the disease and 1.2 million will die. What has that led to? Panic buying of toilet papers!

This is some link.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/umsom-virologists-use-weather-modeling-data-to-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality-for-covid-19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 15 Mar 2020 08:08

The news from France is not reassuring... It seems that out of all the cases that are in ICUs for covid19, "most" are below 60 years of age!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 15 Mar 2020 08:31

Again that's only because they are rationing ICU treatment to those most likely to survive, and also with greatest person-years of life left. That is, there is a strong selection bias.
Last edited by sanjaykumar on 15 Mar 2020 08:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 15 Mar 2020 08:36

I have previously posted the possibility of several variables such as humidity, rainfall, pollution, UV radiation, affecting transmissibility. Of course it should be understood that the interaction of these variables may be what is critical. So some data is coming forth but I think they need multivariate modeling to generate data that tracks the real world numbers that we have. Of course these numbers are themselves incomplete and have an inherent bias built in. This will require massive data crunching as well as collection.

Anyway let's see what develops.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 09:17

Cain Marko wrote:The news from France is not reassuring... It seems that out of all the cases that are in ICUs for covid19, "most" are below 60 years of age!


1. What is the source? If there is a source, and it is reputable... move on to 2.
2. What exactly is this source saying? Is it simply making the bare statement as above? If so - this is no longer to be considered a reputable source - the statement above is incomplete, unsatisfactory, unlikely to be the full picture (see further points below).
3. Is there some other explanation? Like - what Sanjaykumar said? If so, that explains it right there, no need to dhoti-shiver.
4. Let's say what Sanjaykumar said does not apply for some reason - move on to step 5.
5. What is the FULL PICTURE? The worldometer site says - 154 people in serious condition in France (presumably many or even all of these are in the ICU). How many is "most?" and how far below 60 years of age (59.5? 40? 20? 12?) Quantify as much as possible.
6. Then - look at other factors - like - 91 people have already died in France of this disease. Maybe these are the older people who *were* in the ICU, and the median age dropped below 60 because these 91 people moved on?
7. If, after doing all the above and considering any other factors which are known, then - the picture still looks bad - move on to step 8.
8. Dhoti-shiver (now it is justified).

But (no offence) just posting a one-liner unattributed statement and dhoti-shivering on that basis - just isn't right.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 09:30

sudarshan wrote:
vijayk wrote:....


Similar climate, or similar weather? If climate - that implies that the hot-spots will not shift. If weather - that implies that the hot-spots will shift with seasonal changes. I assume they mean weather (experts should be able to keep their terminology straight).

If weather, then we should be seeing cases right now in southern Chile and Argentina (Tierra del Fuego, Islas Malvinas also).

EDIT:

CM's post actually gives it away - if the "Mediterranean climate is worst affected," as CM says, then India doesn't have to worry so much, India has the monsoon climate, not the Mediterranean climate. Russia and Canada don't have to worry, nor Australia nor Africa - none of them have the Mediterranean climate.

So, it's probably weather that they are talking about, just that the Mediterranean region has that weather pattern right now.

I was thinking if it is weather, then a whole lot of other countries and region would get affected slowly. For example the Mid-west in maasa.

That picture was used my an article I posted earlier. They use weather & climate in the article. It is all hypothesis and tough to say what will happen.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 09:39

Cain Marko wrote:Perhaps some of this social distancing and isolation will cause people in this consumerism crazed, Protestant work ethic driven world to take breath and enjoy a more simple, meaningful life, devoid of unnecessary trappings and stress.

Who knows, maybe we'll never go back to that dark frenzied world of 9 to 6 and 60 hour work weeks..

Been saying this for a few days now....this will establish a new norm in the global work & home life. That will leave an impact at least for a few years. Before the new people forget the panic and stress we are going through now. Just like how we do not know the fear during Spanish Flu, new generation will have their own set of fears. Samsara.

ps: why do you work 60hours a week? That is insane

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 09:45

SwamyG wrote:I was thinking if it is weather, then a whole lot of other countries and region would get affected slowly. For example the Mid-west in maasa.

That picture was used my an article I posted earlier. They use weather & climate in the article. It is all hypothesis and tough to say what will happen.


But of course, that's what happens with the flu. Problem is, whenever this is suggested about COVID-19, the counter argument is always "this is not the flu, don't think of it as just another flu, we don't know if this behaves the same way with temperature and humidity." So got to wait and see I guess.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Avarachan » 15 Mar 2020 10:06

This is the best article I know of regarding what ordinary persons can do right now (March 14, 2020). It's written for an American audience, but much of it is applicable to India, too. I'm planning to share it with everyone I know. The hosting website has received so much traffic that the original webpage loads very slowly. Accordingly, I'm copying-and-pasting the whole article here in the interest of public safety. The original article is available free of charge to the public, ad-free, so I'm not violating copyright by doing so. I haven't had time to copy over all of the hyperlinks. Read the article on the original website for that.

"Social Distancing: This is Not a Snow Day"
https://medium.com/@ariadnelabs/social- ... 21d7fa78b4

Mar 13 · 7 min read
Originally published by Ariadne Labs on March 13, 2020 | Updated March 14, 2020
By Asaf Bitton, MD, MPH

I know there is some confusion about what to do next in the midst of this unprecedented time of a pandemic, school closures, and widespread social disruption. As a primary care physician and public health leader, I have been asked by a lot of people for my opinion, and I will provide it below based on the best information available to me today. These are my personal views, and my take on the necessary steps ahead.

What I can clearly say is that what we do, or don’t do, over the next week will have a massive impact on the local and perhaps national trajectory of coronavirus. We are only about 11 days behind Italy and generally on track to repeat what is unfortunately happening there and throughout much of the rest of Europe very soon.

At this point, containment through contact tracing and increased testing is only part of the necessary strategy. We must move to pandemic mitigation through widespread, uncomfortable, and comprehensive social distancing. That means not only shutting down schools, work (as much as possible), group gatherings, and public events, but also making daily choices to stay away from each other as much as possible to Flatten The Curve below.


Image
Source: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... ic-vaccine

Our health system will not be able to cope with the projected numbers of people who will need acute care should we not muster the fortitude and will to socially distance each other starting now. On a regular day, we have about 45,000 staffed ICU beds nationally, which can be ramped up in a crisis to about 95,000. Even moderate projections suggest that if current infectious trends hold, our capacity (locally and nationally) may be overwhelmed as early as mid-late April. Thus, the only strategies that can get us off this concerning trajectory are those that enable us to work together as a community to maintain public health by staying apart.

The wisdom, and necessity, of this more aggressive, early, and extreme form of social distancing can be found here. I would urge you to take a minute to walk through the interactive graphs — they will drive home the point about what we need to do now to avoid a worse crisis later. Historical lessons and experiences of countries worldwide have shown us that taking these actions early can have a dramatic impact on the magnitude of the outbreak.
So what does this enhanced form of social distancing mean on a daily basis, when schools are cancelled?

Here are some steps you can start taking now to keep your family safe and do your part to avoid a worsening crisis:

1. We need to push our local, state, and national leaders to close ALL schools and public spaces and cancel all events and public gatherings now.
A local, town by town response won’t have the adequate needed effect. We need a statewide, nationwide approach in these trying times. Contact your representative and your governor to urge them to enact statewide closures. As of today, six states have already done so. Your state should be one of them. Also urge leaders to increase funds for emergency preparedness and make widening coronavirus testing capacity an immediate and top priority. We also need legislators to enact better paid sick leave and unemployment benefits to help nudge people to make the right call to stay at home right now.

2. No kid playdates, parties, sleepovers, or families/friends visiting each other’s houses and apartments.
This sounds extreme because it is. We are trying to create distance between family units and between individuals. It may be particularly uncomfortable for families with small children, kids with differential abilities or challenges, and for kids who simply love to play with their friends. But even if you choose only one friend to have over, you are creating new links and possibilities for the type of transmission that all of our school/work/public event closures are trying to prevent. The symptoms of coronavirus take four to five days to manifest themselves. Someone who comes over looking well can transmit the virus. Sharing food is particularly risky — I definitely do not recommend that people do so outside of their family.

We have already taken extreme social measures to address this serious disease — let’s not actively co-opt our efforts by having high levels of social interaction at people’s houses instead of at schools or workplaces. Again — the wisdom of early and aggressive social distancing is that it can flatten the curve above, give our health system a chance to not be overwhelmed, and eventually may reduce the length and need for longer periods of extreme social distancing later (see what has transpired in Italy and Wuhan). We need to all do our part during these times, even if it means some discomfort for a while.


3. Take care of yourself and your family, but maintain social distance.
Exercise, take walks/runs outside, and stay connected through phone, video, and other social media. But when you go outside, do your best to maintain at least six feet between you and non-family members. If you have kids, try not to use public facilities like playground structures, as coronavirus can live on plastic and metal for up to nine days, and these structures aren’t getting regularly cleaned.
Going outside will be important during these strange times, and the weather is improving. Go outside every day if you are able, but stay physically away from people outside your family or roommates. If you have kids, try playing a family soccer game instead of having your kids play with other kids, since sports often mean direct physical contact with others. And though we may wish to visit elders in our community in person, I would not visit nursing homes or other areas where large numbers of the elderly reside, as they are at highest risk for complications and mortality from coronavirus.

Social distancing can take a toll (after all, most of us are social creatures). The CDC offers tips and resources to reduce this burden, and other resources offer strategies to cope with the added stress during this time.
We need to find alternate ways to reduce social isolation within our communities through virtual means instead of in-person visits.

4. Reduce the frequency of going to stores, restaurants, and coffee shops for the time being.
Of course trips to the grocery store will be necessary, but try to limit them and go at times when they are less busy. Consider asking grocery stores to queue people at the door in order to limit the number of people inside a store at any one time. Remember to wash your hands thoroughly before and after your trip. And leave the medical masks and gloves for the medical professionals — we need them to care for those who are sick. Maintain distance from others while shopping — and remember that hoarding supplies negatively impacts others so buy what you need and leave some for everyone else. Take-out meals and food are riskier than making food at home given the links between the people who prepare food, transport the food, and you. It is hard to know how much that risk is, but it is certainly higher than making it at home. But you can and should continue to support your local small businesses (especially restaurants and other retailers) during this difficult time by buying gift certificates online that you can use later.

5. If you are sick, isolate yourself, stay home, and contact a medical professional.
If you are sick, you should try to isolate yourself from the rest of your family within your residence as best as you can. If you have questions about whether you qualify or should get a coronavirus test, you can call your primary care team and/or consider calling the Massachusetts Department of Public Health at 617.983.6800 (or your state’s department of health if you are outside of Massachusetts). Don’t just walk into an ambulatory clinic — call first so that they can give you the best advice — which might be to go to a drive-through testing center or a virtual visit on video or phone. Of course, if it is an emergency call 911.
________________________________________

I realize there is a lot built into these suggestions, and that they represent a real burden for many individuals, families, businesses, and communities. Social distancing is hard and may negatively impact many people, especially those who face vulnerabilities in our society. I recognize that there is structural and social inequity built in and around social distancing recommendations. We can and must take steps to bolster our community response to people who face food insecurity, domestic violence, and housing challenges, along with the many other social disadvantages.
I also realize that not everyone can do everything. But we have to try our absolute best as a community, starting today. Enhancing social distancing, even by one day, can make a large difference.

We have a preemptive opportunity to save lives through the actions we take right now that we will not have in a few weeks. It is a public health imperative. It is also our responsibility as a community to act while we still have a choice and while our actions can have the greatest impact.
We cannot wait.

Asaf Bitton, MD, MPH, is the executive director of Ariadne Labs in Boston, MA.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby habal » 15 Mar 2020 10:15

More than climates, it is micro-climates that are a problem in spreading covid19. People have tendency with varying degrees of opportunity or affluence to create micro-climates to habitate or in workplace, some may have basements and other people may have airconditioned environment and some habitation may be in hilly terrain with cool weather and other habitation with good shade and foliage can be manipulated artificially for cool weather can also create micro-climate favorable for spread of covid.

So just a plain faith that warm weather will save India is not justified imho..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 15 Mar 2020 10:56

UV light can influence nitrous oxide reactions perhaps also with virid protein coats or lipid envelopes. uV light can also release nitric oxide from human skin which in turn can modulate immune function.

Here we have sunshine, pollution, levels, human culture (sun exposure) intersecting to potentially influence virulence. I do not think simple temperature models are sufficient. But the graphic on the thermoclines encompassing wuhan northern Italy Iran and Seattle is interesting.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 15 Mar 2020 11:35

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:The news from France is not reassuring... It seems that out of all the cases that are in ICUs for covid19, "most" are below 60 years of age!


1. What is the source? If there is a source, and it is reputable... move on to 2.
2. What exactly is this source saying? Is it simply making the bare statement as above? If so - this is no longer to be considered a reputable source - the statement above is incomplete, unsatisfactory, unlikely to be the full picture (see further points below).
3. Is there some other explanation? Like - what Sanjaykumar said? If so, that explains it right there, no need to dhoti-shiver.
4. Let's say what Sanjaykumar said does not apply for some reason - move on to step 5.
5. What is the FULL PICTURE? The worldometer site says - 154 people in serious condition in France (presumably many or even all of these are in the ICU). How many is "most?" and how far below 60 years of age (59.5? 40? 20? 12?) Quantify as much as possible.
6. Then - look at other factors - like - 91 people have already died in France of this disease. Maybe these are the older people who *were* in the ICU, and the median age dropped below 60 because these 91 people moved on?
7. If, after doing all the above and considering any other factors which are known, then - the picture still looks bad - move on to step 8.
8. Dhoti-shiver (now it is justified).

But (no offence) just posting a one-liner unattributed statement and dhoti-shivering on that basis - just isn't right.

No offense taken. Source is French health chief Jerome Salomon. I'm not sure exactly under what context the figure was given since there is little more to go by press reports and I can't read French. I get all your reasoning in the points you made but these are all predicated on the the source being unreliable or uninformed, he is neither.

Coming from some journo, I can expect that but from an official of some authority who stands to gain little by suggesting that most of his ICUs are populated with those below 60, I wouldn't be too dismissive either. As I just pointed out, I wouldn't be surprised that he took into consideration the points that you made before opening his mouth. There was no reason otherwise to make it. Btw what proof do we have that the French are actually cutting losses by preferring those that are healthier?

As far as dhoti shivering goes, that's based on individual perception. Assuredly, it was not my intention to get dhotis in bunches. And my trusty old langot is neither flapping not soiled, it remains serviceable.
Last edited by Cain Marko on 15 Mar 2020 11:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 15 Mar 2020 11:43

SwamyG wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Perhaps some of this social distancing and isolation will cause people in this consumerism crazed, Protestant work ethic driven world to take breath and enjoy a more simple, meaningful life, devoid of unnecessary trappings and stress.

Who knows, maybe we'll never go back to that dark frenzied world of 9 to 6 and 60 hour work weeks..

Been saying this for a few days now....this will establish a new norm in the global work & home life. That will leave an impact at least for a few years. Before the new people forget the panic and stress we are going through now. Just like how we do not know the fear during Spanish Flu, new generation will have their own set of fears. Samsara.

ps: why do you work 60hours a week? That is insane


I have worked 60 hours+ to put food on the table. Let's just call it karmaphala. Luckily that is not the case today. My point was that this is a matter of some pride in said culture. Just an. observation.

Agree with what you are saying however my point was slightly different in that this situation allowed people to step back a bit from the insane consumerism that is encouraged today.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 15 Mar 2020 12:21

This "exercise" was held to simulate the spread of zoonotic coronavirus, then exactly one year later...

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Host Pandemic Exercise and Livestream

Underscoring immediate need for global public-private cooperation to mitigate severe world-wide economic and societal impacts of pandemics

NEW YORK -- October 16, 2019

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, with the World Economic Forum
and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, will host Event 201, a multimedia
global pandemic exercise on Friday, Oct. 18, 2019, in New York City. The
public may register and participate in the simultaneous virtual exercise in
English, 8:50 a.m.-12:30 p.m. EDT at centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/.
The exercise underscores the need for global public-private cooperation to
mitigate economic and societal impacts of severe pandemics.

In recent years, the world has seen a growing number of epidemic events, about
200 per year, which strain limited resources. A large global pandemic would be
disruptive to health, economies, and society. Economic studies show that
pandemics could be the cause of an average annual economic loss of 0.7% of
global GDP—or $570 billion.

Event 201, played by 15 leaders of businesses, governments, and public health,
will illustrate realistic policy problems that must be addressed under
pressure during a pandemic. At the video-driven exercise, players will be
presented with a scenario that reveals unresolved and controversial policy and
economic issues that could be solved with sufficient political will, financial
investment, and attention.



The Event 201 scenario

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.


Highlights Reel

Segment 1 - Intro and Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Discussion

Segment 2 - Trade & Travel Discussion

Segment 3 - Finance Discussion

Segment 4 - Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video

Segment 5 - Hotwash and Conclusion

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 15 Mar 2020 12:37

From the POV of the Agra woman who escaped the Agra quarantine facility.

https://swarajyamag.com/blogs/the-truth-about-agra-woman-who-was-accused-of-escaping-coronavirus-quarantine-facility-and-shamed-online

Looking at the photos of the toilet, it is no wonder that she jumped the quarantine.

chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 15 Mar 2020 12:58

Cain Marko wrote:
sudarshan wrote:
1. What is the source? If there is a source, and it is reputable... move on to 2.
2. What exactly is this source saying? Is it simply making the bare statement as above? If so - this is no longer to be considered a reputable source - the statement above is incomplete, unsatisfactory, unlikely to be the full picture (see further points below).
3. Is there some other explanation? Like - what Sanjaykumar said? If so, that explains it right there, no need to dhoti-shiver.
4. Let's say what Sanjaykumar said does not apply for some reason - move on to step 5.
5. What is the FULL PICTURE? The worldometer site says - 154 people in serious condition in France (presumably many or even all of these are in the ICU). How many is "most?" and how far below 60 years of age (59.5? 40? 20? 12?) Quantify as much as possible.
6. Then - look at other factors - like - 91 people have already died in France of this disease. Maybe these are the older people who *were* in the ICU, and the median age dropped below 60 because these 91 people moved on?
7. If, after doing all the above and considering any other factors which are known, then - the picture still looks bad - move on to step 8.
8. Dhoti-shiver (now it is justified).

But (no offence) just posting a one-liner unattributed statement and dhoti-shivering on that basis - just isn't right.

No offense taken. Source is French health chief Jerome Salomon. I'm not sure exactly under what context the figure was given since there is little more to go by press reports and I can't read French. I get all your reasoning in the points you made but these are all predicated on the the source being unreliable or uninformed, he is neither.

Coming from some journo, I can expect that but from an official of some authority who stands to gain little by suggesting that most of his ICUs are populated with those below 60, I wouldn't be too dismissive either. As I just pointed out, I wouldn't be surprised that he took into consideration the points that you made before opening his mouth. There was no reason otherwise to make it. Btw what proof do we have that the French are actually cutting losses by preferring those that are healthier?

As far as dhoti shivering goes, that's based on individual perception. Assuredly, it was not my intention to get dhotis in bunches. And my trusty old langot is neither flapping not soiled, it remains serviceable.


This is very very troubling news but very different from the situation in all the other places so far that we know of? I hope France is simply an outlier because of some local circumstances. The worst case scenario is the virus has mutated again and France is the beginning of a new phase with the virus.

hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 15 Mar 2020 13:01

From Times of India.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-updates-live-total-number-of-coronavirus-cases-in-india-maharashtra-telangana-haryana/liveblog/74632927.cms

More morons.

How are we ever going to flatten the curve with morons like these?

UK national tests positive for coronavirus; all 289 passengers offloaded at Kochi airport.
The passenger belonged to a group of 19 holidaying in the hill resort town of Munnar in Kerala and was under surveillance, a Cochin International Airport Limited spokesman said. He joined the group to reach the Kochi airport without informing authorities in Munnar, he said. When the test result came, the authorities came to know that he was at the Kochi airport and travelling by an Emirates flight. Firstly, it was decided to offload all 19 passengers of his group, he said.
Last edited by hanumadu on 15 Mar 2020 14:31, edited 1 time in total.

chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 15 Mar 2020 13:21

As an American desi, I'm resigned. The situation is completely FUBAR.

Image

No one is being tested even if you can afford it. Government officials of all levels are running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

Krita
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 15 Mar 2020 13:23

The family from Patnamthitta,Kerala who had failed to report about their visit to Italy.

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 15 Mar 2020 15:23

Islam does not approve: Four Muslims who returned from Dubai threaten health officials in Karnataka, refuse to undergo Coronavirus test :shock:

At a time when the entire world is on edge due to coronavirus outbreak, a shocking incident of recklessness has been reported from Bhatkal town of Karnataka where four Muslim youths who had recently returned from Dubai has objected to medical tests claiming that Islam did not permit them to be subjected to medical tests, reports Public TV.

chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 15 Mar 2020 15:24

given their "rights" one was wondering when these guys would play this card


Islam does not approve: Four Muslims who returned from Dubai threaten health officials in Karnataka, refuse to undergo Coronavirus test


15 March, 2020

At a time when the entire world is on edge due to coronavirus outbreak, a shocking incident of recklessness has been reported from Bhatkal town of Karnataka where four Muslim youths who had recently returned from Dubai has objected to medical tests claiming that Islam did not permit them to be subjected to medical tests, reports Public TV.

The District administration of Uttara Kannada, Karnataka has been on a high alert ever since the coronavirus outbreak has occurred. They have set up quarantine and medical facilities across the district to check the incoming passengers to make sure that the deadly contagious virus is not spread. The district authorities have also launched a door-to-door campaign to carry out medical checkups to ascertain the impact of the global pandemic.


Similarly, the district officials on Friday attempted to carry out a medical checkup in Muslim-dominated areas of Bhatkal. Four Muslim youths, who had returned to the city from Dubai on Friday, were asked to submit themselves to the medical check-up as a precautionary measure. Earlier, another person who had returned to the city from Bhatkal was suspected to be carrying symptoms.

However, the four Muslim youths threatened the health officials and asked them to return. The Muslim youths objected to carrying out any medical tests citing that Islam does not permit such tests.

The willful negligence by the Muslim youths citing their religion to not permit such medical checkup has now put a lot of other people in the city at risk. The locals are now demanding that the district administration should take them into custody and quarantine them to ascertain whether the four Muslim youths are subjected to the deadly COVID-19.

Meanwhile the Uttara Kannada district officials have also quarantined 14 people belonging to a single-family, who had returned from a religious trip to Mecca and Medina. The family members had travelled to Saudi Arabia with a 76-year-old man who had succumbed to coronavirus last week, becoming the first person in the country to pass away because of the COVID-19.

nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2020 15:59

There is a simple way this. You put them in a solitary prison for 14 days. If they don't have symptoms, you can then send them home.

SandeepA
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SandeepA » 15 Mar 2020 18:00

vijayk wrote:Image

If this is the Weather map then the immediate next in line while summer progresses in the northern hemisphere will be Russia, the Nordic countries and Canada. Next could be the Southern hemisphere with South Africa, Chile, Argentina, Australia and possibly New Zealand. If its a weather map then dhoti shivering continues..

SriKumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 15 Mar 2020 18:23

sooraj wrote:Islam does not approve: Four Muslims who returned from Dubai threaten health officials in Karnataka, refuse to undergo Coronavirus test :shock:

At a time when the entire world is on edge due to coronavirus outbreak, a shocking incident of recklessness has been reported from Bhatkal town of Karnataka where four Muslim youths who had recently returned from Dubai has objected to medical tests claiming that Islam did not permit them to be subjected to medical tests, reports Public TV.
Not surpirsed. What's surprising is that if these are the only 4 cases of people refusing a test due to their religion, it is a very low number actually.

QUEstion would be how were the Friday prayers in India, were they fully attended? In some parts of the world, they were cancelled.

I would suggest these 4 WUhan Virus infected people show up to their local mullah's masjid, delcare their +ve status and see if they can do their prayers. It iis a problem if national security-crtical public health matters need religious sanction from local religious or political leadership, while disobeying instructions from civil authorities.

sooraj: I find your posts (even short posts) very informational.

nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2020 19:30


sooraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 15 Mar 2020 19:44

Spain reports 92 new deaths and 1,362 new cases of coronavirus, raising the totals to 288 deaths and 7,753 cases across the country.

USA reports 1 new case bringing total confirmed cases there to 3,049 and 60 total deaths, with 106 new cases and 3 new deaths reported today.

Italians over 80 'will be left to die' as country overwhelmed by coronavirus.

According to @Le_Figaro, also French President Macron is silently supporting the "HERD IMMUNITY OPTION" to fight #CoronaVirus, in a similar approach to the UK.

SwamyG
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 15 Mar 2020 19:47

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:The news from France is not reassuring... It seems that out of all the cases that are in ICUs for covid19, "most" are below 60 years of age!


1. What is the source? If there is a source, and it is reputable... move on to 2.
2. What exactly is this source saying? Is it simply making the bare statement as above? If so - this is no longer to be considered a reputable source - the statement above is incomplete, unsatisfactory, unlikely to be the full picture (see further points below).
3. Is there some other explanation? Like - what Sanjaykumar said? If so, that explains it right there, no need to dhoti-shiver.
4. Let's say what Sanjaykumar said does not apply for some reason - move on to step 5.
5. What is the FULL PICTURE? The worldometer site says - 154 people in serious condition in France (presumably many or even all of these are in the ICU). How many is "most?" and how far below 60 years of age (59.5? 40? 20? 12?) Quantify as much as possible.
6. Then - look at other factors - like - 91 people have already died in France of this disease. Maybe these are the older people who *were* in the ICU, and the median age dropped below 60 because these 91 people moved on?
7. If, after doing all the above and considering any other factors which are known, then - the picture still looks bad - move on to step 8.
8. Dhoti-shiver (now it is justified).

But (no offence) just posting a one-liner unattributed statement and dhoti-shivering on that basis - just isn't right.


That is why I tell my kids study statistics and logic well. And they will shine. Statistics is a tool to cut through the maya to know the truth.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_Sharma » 15 Mar 2020 20:42

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO US WILL SOON HAPPEN TO YOU: AN ITALIAN CITIZEN

If you'e still hanging with friends, going to restaurants/bars, and acting like this isn't a big deal, get your shit together.

The following thread is taken from an Italian citizen.

As they put it:

"To the rest of the world, you have no idea what's coming."

MUST READ

As I think everybody knows, Italy is on quarantine because of the coronavirus outbreak.

This situation is bad, but what's worse is seeing the rest of the world behaving as if it isn't going to happen to them.

We know what you're thinking because we were in your place too.

Let's see how things developed...

STAGE 1:

You know that coronavirus exists, and the first cases begin to appear in your country.

Well, nothing to worry about, it's just a bad flu!

I'm not 75+yo so what could possibly happen to me?

STAGE 1 (cont'd):

I'm safe, everybody is overreacting, what's the need to go out with masks and stock toilet paper?

I'm going to live my life as usual, there's no need to freak out.

STAGE 2. The number of cases begins to be significant.

STAGE 2 (cont'd):

They declare "red zone" and quarantine one or two small cities where they found the first cases and a lot of people were infected (Feb 22nd).

Well that's sad and somewhat worrisome but they're taking care of it so nothing to panic about.

STAGE 2 (cont'd):

There are some deaths but they're all old people so the media is just creating panic for views, how shameful.

People lead their life as usual.. I'm not going to stop going out and meeting my friends am I?

It's not going to get me. Everybody's fine here.

STAGE 3:

The number of cases is rapidly going up.

They almost doubled in one day.

There's more deaths.

They declare red zones and quarantine the 4 regions where the majority of cases are registered (March 7).

In Italy 25% of the county is under quarantine.

STAGE 3 (cont'd):

Schools and universities are closed in these areas but bars, work places, restaurants and so on are still open.

The decree gets released by some newspaper before it should...

STAGE 3 (cont'd):

...so around 10k people from the red zone escape from the area that same night to return to their homes in the rest of Italy (this will be important later).

Most of the population of the remaining 75% of Italy still does what it always does.

STAGE 3 (cont'd):

They still don't realize the seriousness of the situation. Everywhere you turn people advise to wash your hands and limit going out, large groups are forbidden, every 5 minutes on TV they remind you of these rules.

But it still hasn't settled in people's mind.

STAGE 4:

The number of cases is heavily increasing.

Schools and universities are closed everywhere for at least a month.

It's a national health emergency.

Hospitals are at capacity, entire units are cleared to make space for coronavirus patients.

STAGE 4 (cont'd):

There aren't enough doctors and nurses.

They're calling retired ones and those in their last 2 years of university.

There's no shifts any more, just work as much as you can.

Of course doctors and nurses are getting infected, spreading it to their families.

STAGE 4 (cont'd):

There's too many cases of pneumonia, too many people who need ICU and not enough places for everyone.

At this point is like being at war: doctors have to choose who to treat based on their survival chance.

STAGE 4 (cont'd):

That means that the elderly and trauma/stroke patients can't get treated because corona cases have priority.

There's not enough resources for everybody so they have to be distributed for best outcome.

I wish I was joking but it's literally what has happened.

STAGE 4 (cont'd):

People have died because there wasn't any more space.

I have a doctor friend who called me devastated because he had to let 3 people die that day.

Nurses crying because they see people dying and can't do anything aside from offering some oxygen.

STAGE 4 (cont'd):

A friend's relative died yesterday of corona because they couldn't treat him.

It's chaos, the system is collapsing.

Coronavirus and the crisis it's provoking is all you hear about everywhere.

STAGE 5:

Remember the 10k idiot who ran from the red zone to the rest of Italy?

Well, the entire country has to be declared under quarantine (March 9).

The goal is to delay the spreading of the virus as much as possible.

STAGE 5 (cont'd):

People can go to work, do grocery shopping, go to the pharmacy, and all businesses are still open because otherwise the economy would collapse (it already is), but you can't move from your commune unless you have a valid reason.

STAGE 5 (cont'd):

Now there's fear, you see a lot of people with masks and gloves around but there are still are people who think that they're invincible, who go to restaurants in large groups, hang out with friends to drink and so on.

Next step.

STAGE 6:

2 days later, it's announced that all (most) businesses are closed: Bars, restaurants, shopping centers, all kinds of shops etc.

Everything except supermarkets and pharmacies.

You can move around only if you have certification with you.

STAGE 6 (cont'd):

The certification is an official document where you declare your name, where you're coming from, where you're going and what for.

There are a lot of police check points.

If you're found outside without a valid reason you risk a fine up to €206.

STAGE 6 (cont'd):

If you're a known positive patient you risk from 1 to 12 years of jail for homicide.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

That's what the situation is like now today as of the March 12th.

Keep in mind that it all happened in around 2 weeks...

5 DAYS FROM STAGE 3 TO TODAY.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

The rest of the world apart from Italy, China and Korea is just now beginning to reach other stages, so let me tell you this:

You have no idea what's coming to get you.

I know because 2 weeks ago I was the one who had no idea and though it wasn't bad.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

But it is.

And not because the virus alone is particularly dangerous or deadly, but for all the consequences it brings.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

It's hard to see all these countries act like it's not coming and not taking the precautions that are necessary for the well-being of its citizens while they still can.

Please if you're reading this try to act in your best interest.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

This problem isn't going to solve itself by ignoring it.

Just wondering how many undiscovered cases there might be in America alone is scary, and they're in for a big, big trouble because of how their country is run.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

Our government for once did a good job I must say.

The actions taken were drastic but necessary, and this may be the only way to limit the spreading.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

It's working in China so we hope it will work here too (it's already working in some of the first red zones which were quarantined before everybody else).

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

They're taking measures to protect us citizens such as probably suspending mortgage payments for next months, help for shop owners who were obligated to close and so on.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

I realize that these takes are really difficult, if not impossible, to take in some countries, and it's really worrying to think about what it could mean in global scale.

I wonder if this pandemic will be a turning point in our society.

FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):

If there are cases where you live, then the virus is spreading, and you're maybe 1-2 weeks behind us.

But you'll get to our point eventually.

PLEASE take any precaution you can take.

Don't act like it's not going to get you.

If you can, STAY HOME.

https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/statu ... 87296?s=09

nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 15 Mar 2020 20:47

Infection rates. Above 50 are nearly 80% of the infection in Italy. They have a massive disaster on the hands.

Image

sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Mar 2020 20:54

Cain Marko wrote:No offense taken. Source is French health chief Jerome Salomon. I'm not sure exactly under what context the figure was given since there is little more to go by press reports and I can't read French. I get all your reasoning in the points you made but these are all predicated on the the source being unreliable or uninformed, he is neither.

Coming from some journo, I can expect that but from an official of some authority who stands to gain little by suggesting that most of his ICUs are populated with those below 60, I wouldn't be too dismissive either. As I just pointed out, I wouldn't be surprised that he took into consideration the points that you made before opening his mouth. There was no reason otherwise to make it. Btw what proof do we have that the French are actually cutting losses by preferring those that are healthier?

As far as dhoti shivering goes, that's based on individual perception. Assuredly, it was not my intention to get dhotis in bunches. And my trusty old langot is neither flapping not soiled, it remains serviceable.


Thanks for not taking offence. All I'm saying is - regardless of source, it's good to do some sanity checks of our own (regardless of whether or not the source already did those checks). You might not have been dhoti shivering, but other folks who read a post like that do tend to freak out.

Peace.


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