Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 729
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 16 Mar 2020 03:47

SwamyG wrote:If social distancing delays the infection rate, then it means fewer people are infected; and that it means the health services will not be overwhelmed.


spot on. this should be the focus now.

Suresh S
BRFite
Posts: 790
Joined: 25 Dec 2008 22:19

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suresh S » 16 Mar 2020 04:06

All Newyork city schools closed from tomorrow. I did not wait for the politicians even when the schools were insisting to continue to send the children to school. I stopped sending the child to school a week earlier as I saw the writing on the wall.

Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2434
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 16 Mar 2020 04:30

French doctors are advising (based on observations of COVID19 patients) against taking anti-inflammatory medicines (ibuprofen etc) and steroids and suggest, if really needed, taking anti-pyretics like paracetamol.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8914
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 16 Mar 2020 04:35

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:+1

But most importantly the difference lied in the fatality rate. COVID is at least 1000x more likely to kill someone than the common flu.


Was that rhetorical, typo, or what? The common flu accepted fatality rate is 0.1% (statistically calculated).

1000 X 0.1% = 100%.

So COVID has a fatality rate of at least 100%, often more?

EDIT: Or maybe you were talking of the overall fatality likelihood, factoring in a higher likelihood of infection than the flu as well. I still doubt it would be 1000X though.


Even then. If the flu killed 19,000 people in the US last year, then at 1000x more you're looking at 19,000,000 fatalities. I call BS.

Madrassa math like the idea of $500 million spent by Bloomberg would mean $1 million of every US person.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 04:47

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:+1

But most importantly the difference lied in the fatality rate. COVID is at least 1000x more likely to kill someone than the common flu.


Was that rhetorical, typo, or what? The common flu accepted fatality rate is 0.1% (statistically calculated).

1000 X 0.1% = 100%.

So COVID has a fatality rate of at least 100%, often more?

EDIT: Or maybe you were talking of the overall fatality likelihood, factoring in a higher likelihood of infection than the flu as well. I still doubt it would be 1000X though.

Sorry saar.... Meant 1000%(10x) more likely to kill. Hope that clarifies it. But from most numbers so far it's a lot higher.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8914
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 16 Mar 2020 04:55

^^^No. It appears the US is at 1.9% mortality rate which will drop as more people are tested positive. Right now 63 dead and 60 in critical condition. If this was really super deadly, then the number in critical condition will have shot up.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 05:05

^Point is even at 1.9%, it's orders of magnitude worse than the flu, no?

ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 678
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 16 Mar 2020 05:06

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-germany-tries-to-stop-us-luring-away-firm-seeking-vaccine.html
Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 05:09

Summit Joins the Fight Against the Coronavirus

March 6, 2020

With the coronavirus sweeping the globe, tech conferences and supply chains are being hit hard – but now, tech is hitting back. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has announced that Summit, the most powerful publicly ranked supercomputer in the world, is joining the fight to understand and mitigate the coronavirus.

Summit, which tops the most recent Top500 list, is an IBM-built system packed with 4,608 nodes (each powered by two IBM Power9 CPUs and six Nvidia Volta GPUs), delivering 148 Linpack petaflops. Now, that firepower is being turned toward the coronavirus, with Summit taking aim at a telltale “spike” protein on the virus that may be the key to developing drugs to fight it.
...


There is a nice short video which visualizes blocking of the key (spike) on the virus.

ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 678
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 16 Mar 2020 05:28

Hello guys, i trust i come bearing good news
https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562
I’ve been in touch with an intensivist at a Seattle hospital with one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 admissions in the US.

They’ve been too exhausted to post much themselves, so I am conveying some of what I’ve been told, which is… eye-opening. To say the least. /1

Read the entire thread.
ps. for people interested in quick time news from all over the world, head to http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/248311780#p248312823, fair warning, it is nsfw or soul, and the people there are trying to incite the virus by means of unconscious hermetic memory, but it is the fastest way to get hold of the happening.

nithish
BRFite
Posts: 437
Joined: 02 Oct 2009 02:41

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nithish » 16 Mar 2020 05:34

The experience of two Wuhan hospitals has been published
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPd ... %2930566-3

191 patients treated till Jan 31; 137 discharged and 54 died (28.3% mortality)

Non-survivors were (1) older [median age 69 vs 52]; (2) had another medical illness i.e. hypertension, diabetes, heart and lung disease; (3) higher severity of illness as measured by SOFA (sequential organ failure score); (4) low lymphocyte count and low procalcitonin (marker of inflammation); (5) slightly higher white cell count but still normal; (6) higher markers of organ failure e.g. creatinine in renal failure; and (7) worse features on x-ray/CT

Symptoms were similar in both survivors and non-survivors as well as time taken for them to be admitted to hospital from start of symptoms

Treatment was predominantly with antibiotics; about 20% also received antivirals
32 (16% overall) patients needed mechanical ventilation - 31 of these died. Similar proportion in Italy
More of the non-survivors were given steroids, immunoglobulin, and had non-invasive cardiac bypass (ECMO). This is all likely a reflection of the severity of the illness at that time as opposed to being causative factors for death.

As expected, non-survivors were more likely to be in multi-organ failure including kidneys, heart, and lungs of course.

In multi-variate analysis, older age, higher SOFA score, and higher d-dimer (marker of clotting - affected in severe infection) were predictors of death. Development of severe lung failure (ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome) is also much more likely in elderly

Significantly, viral shedding continued for a median 20 days after onset of infection (range 8-37 days) which would mean that they may be infectious for up to 3 weeks - isolation is currently for 14 days (7 in UK i think) but there haven't been any reports of transmission from quarantined patients after discharge as yet

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 05:56

SwamyG wrote:However, looks like generally the governments and administration (even down to the cop level) thnings are working admirably. Jai ho.


Swamygal, long time no see.

saar, Agra isolation ward pics don't give one that much of confidence in govt. and admin.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 06:00

SriKumar wrote:THere is a lesson in here for India. Culturally Italy has similarities with India where traditionally family and friends bonds are strong, and they are relied on, much more so than the government ...


SriKumar avargal,
While there are similarities, there are also differences which might actually serve India better. Most of the Indian population, ~60-65%, are in rural areas. Moreover mobility in India is much lower than in Italy as well intra-Europe.

SriKumar wrote:For this nation to have thousands of cases so quickly suggested that it could spread anywhere in the world, notwithstanding infrastructure and discipline.


The better the infra, the more the spread. So worse infrastructure could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, or so I hope.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 06:17

SriKumar wrote:Yes, I had quickly scanned this paper and noted its findings, particularly that it stays for 12 hours + on steel and Polypropylene.


I haven't scanned the paper yet. Does that study include how the virii population (decrease, I presume) over time? Otherwise, it is almost useless, IMHO.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 06:22

mappunni wrote:The schools have extended spring break for another week. The latest we hear is that the children will be taught through online classes. Most offices have asked folks to work from home indefinitely.


The question is whether the Internet can take all this load? School and university education delivery professionals would use video to deliver. It is bandwidth consuming. On top of it, we have many people working from home, and most importantly tele-medicine traffic will peak as the suspected cases go up. There will be a lot of data crunching going on with huge amount of data moving around on the network.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 06:36

hanumadu wrote: ... herd immunity builds up ...


Hanumadu garu, herd immunity may not develop, for one. As for the vaccine, I would rather that a cure is developed at the same time as a vaccine. I don't enough biophysics/biochemistry to say which one is easier to develop though. Resources would be concentrated by an appropriate weighting function.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10686
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Mar 2020 06:40

Cain Marko wrote:^Point is even at 1.9%, it's orders of magnitude worse than the flu, no?


Yes, but if the denominator goes up (with increased testing), the order of magnitude might disappear.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 06:57

nithish wrote:The experience of two Wuhan hospitals has been published
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPd ... %2930566-3

191 patients treated till Jan 31; 137 discharged and 54 died (28.3% mortality)

Non-survivors were (1) older [median age 69 vs 52]; (2) had another medical illness i.e. hypertension, diabetes, heart and lung disease; (3) higher severity of illness as measured by SOFA (sequential organ failure score); (4) low lymphocyte count and low procalcitonin (marker of inflammation); (5) slightly higher white cell count but still normal; (6) higher markers of organ failure e.g. creatinine in renal failure; and (7) worse features on x-ray/CT

Symptoms were similar in both survivors and non-survivors as well as time taken for them to be admitted to hospital from start of symptoms



Significantly, viral shedding continued for a median 20 days after onset of infection (range 8-37 days) which would mean that they may be infectious for up to 3 weeks - isolation is currently for 14 days (7 in UK i think) but there haven't been any reports of transmission from quarantined patients after discharge as yet


Hmm..Any clue regarding how long it took on average for symptoms to show?
Not good that shedding period is that long.

Seems different from this study although it many tasks of isolation based on incubation period of no more than 14 days, such it assumes is the time for spreading infection.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762 ... y-reported

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 07:01

Vayutuvan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:^Point is even at 1.9%, it's orders of magnitude worse than the flu, no?


Yes, but if the denominator goes up (with increased testing), the order of magnitude might disappear.

True dat but the numerator is a lot greater in overall known cases. And at this stage there is no way to know if it will be higher or lower in the States. One could argue both ways but the best case estimate seems between 1 to 1.5%.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 07:04

Vayutuvan wrote:
mappunni wrote:The schools have extended spring break for another week. The latest we hear is that the children will be taught through online classes. Most offices have asked folks to work from home indefinitely.


The question is whether the Internet can take all this load? School and university education delivery professionals would use video to deliver. It is bandwidth consuming. On top of it, we have many people working from home, and most importantly tele-medicine traffic will peak as the suspected cases go up. There will be a lot of data crunching going on with huge amount of data moving around on the network.

Yes that occurred to me as well. But I thought that fiber optic connections offered much more bandwidth? In any case, I'd expect they'll throttle if it gets too high. Expect to see grainy vids on Netflix in the coming months I suppose. So much for hd streaming eh?
Last edited by Cain Marko on 16 Mar 2020 07:25, edited 1 time in total.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7342
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 16 Mar 2020 07:06

Coronavirus: More young patients being admitted to hospital, Italian doctor warns https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02531.html

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7342
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 16 Mar 2020 07:09

nithish wrote:The experience of two Wuhan hospitals has been published
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPd ... %2930566-3


Why is Lancet publishing Wuhan hospital experience :eek: ? Money bags moved apparently .
At a time when world is grappling with wuhan virus outbreak, when China has a lot of explaining to do, Lancet is trying to mainstream Chinese misadventure by validating them!
Btw the experience is in line with Viral ARDS treatment course.

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2058
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 16 Mar 2020 07:16

Vayutuvan wrote:
SriKumar wrote:THere is a lesson in here for India. Culturally Italy has similarities with India where traditionally family and friends bonds are strong, and they are relied on, much more so than the government ...


SriKumar avargal,
While there are similarities, there are also differences which might actually serve India better. Most of the Indian population, ~60-65%, are in rural areas. Moreover mobility in India is much lower than in Italy as well intra-Europe.

SriKumar wrote:For this nation to have thousands of cases so quickly suggested that it could spread anywhere in the world, notwithstanding infrastructure and discipline.


The better the infra, the more the spread. So worse infrastructure could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, or so I hope.

If 35% of India lives in the cities, that's 385 million- a large enough to be concerned about. But significant improvements in road connectivity and availability of vehicles last few years allow large populations in villages & small towns to go to cities within 1-2 hours of journey- close enough that many make the trip for jobs or trade. By infrastructure, I also meant medical infrastructure.

The study measured decay rates of virii over time on various surfaces. I dont exactly understand the units but it seems to represent the potency of the existing virus in the sample as it decays over time (hours). In absence of other studies this study atleast gives us something to work with. But I've not been looking for other studies. The test approach seems pretty straight-forward and standard procedure. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
Last edited by SriKumar on 16 Mar 2020 07:33, edited 1 time in total.

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2058
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 16 Mar 2020 07:19

IndraD wrote:Coronavirus: More young patients being admitted to hospital, Italian doctor warns https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02531.html
I was wondering how you managed to stay away from this thread for so long, yaar. What's your take on the herd immunity approach. It seems like something one would do if they want minimum disruption to civic life, but then I have not read much at all about the rationale for taking this approach.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 07:23

IndraD wrote:
nithish wrote:The experience of two Wuhan hospitals has been published
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPd ... %2930566-3


Why is Lancet publishing Wuhan hospital experience :eek: ? Money bags moved apparently .
At a time when world is grappling with wuhan virus outbreak, when China has a lot of explaining to do, Lancet is trying to mainstream Chinese misadventure by validating them!
Btw the experience is in line with Viral ARDS treatment course.

Money talks and BS walks

DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 946
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 16 Mar 2020 07:48

Hi all, some might recognize me as the Chinese poster who posts mostly in China-related military and political threads. My day job, however, is an Internal Medicine physician working in the San Francisco bay area, one of the epicenters of outbreaks in the US. I'm not an expert on this virus by any means, but due to my work as one of the front line healthcare workers treating the infected, I've done a good amount of reading on this. As far as I'm concerned, we're all in this fight together, so I'd like to address some of the commonly asked questions in as plain language and as simple math as I can.

1) What is the mortality of this virus?
In my estimation, the mortality when given adequate medical treatment, is about 1%. This is mostly gleaned from data from South Korea. They were very well prepared (just ran national pandemic drill in December), extensively tested the population (3692 tests / million population, compared to 826 for Italy, and a paltry 26 for the US), and the healthcare system was not completely overwhelmed (i.e., not like Italy). In SK the mortality rate was 0.7%, which was probably an underestimation world-wide due to the disproportionate percentage of young patients who usually do well. Hence my estimation of ~1%.

2) How does it compare to recent outbreaks of other conditions?
H1N1 was just as infectious, but was not very deadly when adequately treated with a mortality rate of only 0.02% in the US. SARS had a mortality rate of ~10%, but is much less infectious. Ebola had a 90% mortality, but is much, much, much less infectious. This virus also has a relatively long incubation period, generally 4-14 days before symptoms start to show up (24 hours for the flu). Current evidence also suggest that it can start transmission before symptoms appear unlike the flu, though it's still early to say for sure.

3) What is "flattening the curve"?
I don't really like this term, I prefer to call it "spread out the infections", which IMO is much easier to understand for the layperson. The idea is that 1 million infections all occurring in 1 month will be much deadlier than 1 million infections spread out over 6 months as the former will overwhelm the healthcare system far easier. The math is pretty simple, but I don't think I even need to illustrate it because it's pretty common sense. Italy, for example, has a very good healthcare system. The single most important reason that Italy's mortality rate is 10x that of SK's is because they did a terrible, terrible job at spreading out the infections. Their healthcare system is completely overwhelmed right now and they're literally, not essentially but literally, leaving the elderly to die.

4) What should I do?
Individually, the most important things are: hand washing, mask-wearing, and social distancing. Of note, wearing a simple mask will only somewhat protect you from others, what it does far more effectively is to protect others from you. If everyone is protected from everyone else, transmission will obviously plummet. IMO by far the most important intervention in SK and China, both of whom succesfully controlled the spread of the virus, is universal mandatory mask-wearing. SK and China practiced different methods re: quarantine. SK's was tailored to individuals and far less draconian than China's. SK's strategy involved app-based tracking of infected individuals, which coupled with wide-spread testing was very effective. There was no travel ban even for Daegu, the epicenter of their outbreak. This may not work for less tech-infused and obedient populations, however. Many Italians, for example, refused to self-quarantine and rioted when travel bans were imposed.

5) What'll happen in the future?
It'll likely calm down in the summer. Evidence suggest that the virus is most active at 8-9 Celsius and at relatively dry humidity level, similar to the flu. This is also evidenced by the relatively few cases of community spread in warmer countries e.g. India, SEA, Africa, and most of South and Central America. Like all other coronaviruses, this virus will mutate, and given its infectivity it likely won't die out like SARS. How it comes back next fall/winter, no one knows. We all have to prepare for the worst, however, because next season it won't spread from a single point in China, but start off right away as community spread cases.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7342
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 16 Mar 2020 07:50

SriKumar wrote:
IndraD wrote:Coronavirus: More young patients being admitted to hospital, Italian doctor warns https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02531.html
I was wondering how you managed to stay away from this thread for so long, yaar. What's your take on the herd immunity approach. It seems like something one would do if they want minimum disruption to civic life, but then I have not read much at all about the rationale for taking this approach.


bolne ko kuch hai hi nahi saar!
A new virus, a new disease , more is unknown than known.
Previously we were told it is only killing old people with underlying condition but by now covid19 has claimed lives of young men as well .
front line workers & doctors are truly screwed while world is running away from nCV they have to deal with these patients everyday!
No country in the world can be prepared for an apocalypse like this! ICU beds to masks every thing is in shortage all over the world.
Virus itself is quite nasty attacking both lungs and heart, it is not purely a SARS virus. It damages myocardium with ferocity causing arrhythmia, heart failure. One patient in a known teaching hospital is receiving ECMO due to heart & lungs failure from Covid19 and is 45 only!

Herd immunity
Is absolutely bogus and unsubstantiated. It is based on the premise that a second wave will come after September then country will need herd immunity, virus seems to be quite lethal and it will kill huge number of people if allowed to spread the way it is being allowed in UK.
UK & sweden are the only 2 country who have adopted this strategy and Sweden is already chickening out.
Any epidemic is dealt in four stages: Containment, Spread, Research & Mitigation.
UK never implemented containment. Till this day you can fly into London from Lombardy.
Those with fever sore throat are being asked to isolate for 7 days when virus is secreted for longer than that.
Worst they are not even been tested for nCV! Hence reported numbers are low.

UK';s strategy more seems to be a compulsion. Due to brexit it needs China's money. British steel was recently sold to China. 5G sell out is on. More on the way. Britain's decision to carry on like nothing happened, more is due to dire straits than mathematical model.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8914
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 16 Mar 2020 07:54

Cain Marko wrote:
Vayutuvan wrote:
Yes, but if the denominator goes up (with increased testing), the order of magnitude might disappear.

True dat but the numerator is a lot greater in overall known cases. And at this stage there is no way to know if it will be higher or lower in the States. One could argue both ways but the best case estimate seems between 1 to 1.5%.


Anthony Fauci stated the mortality rate would be around 1%. Italy and China are cases of mismanagement and most likely some US states will fall into the same category. States like Ohio have declared the entire state in an emergency and this has disrupted the supply of essential food items by truck. My relatives in Ohio can't get milk for their kids, nor rice, paper towels, toilet paper and so on. Yet, no single case of mortality in Ohio or serious patients. Here in southwest, there is a shortage of rice and toilet paper, but no state wide emergency.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4617
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Mar 2020 08:15

Mort Walker wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:True dat but the numerator is a lot greater in overall known cases. And at this stage there is no way to know if it will be higher or lower in the States. One could argue both ways but the best case estimate seems between 1 to 1.5%.


Anthony Fauci stated the mortality rate would be around 1%. Italy and China are cases of mismanagement and most likely some US states will fall into the same category. States like Ohio have declared the entire state in an emergency and this has disrupted the supply of essential food items by truck. My relatives in Ohio can't get milk for their kids, nor rice, paper towels, toilet paper and so on. Yet, no single case of mortality in Ohio or serious patients. Here in southwest, there is a shortage of rice and toilet paper, but no state wide emergency.


1% is not a joke. 1-1.5% is a conservative estimate according to Osterholm. What has the availability of milk or rice have to do with CFR? So far there have been only 37 cases in Ohio. Still very early days.

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2058
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 16 Mar 2020 08:18

IndraD wrote:
bolne ko kuch hai hi nahi saar!
A new virus, a new disease , more is unknown than known.
Previously we were told it is only killing old people with underlying condition but by now covid19 has claimed lives of young men as well .
front line workers & doctors are truly screwed while world is running away from nCV they have to deal with these patients everyday!
No country in the world can be prepared for an apocalypse like this! ICU beds to masks every thing is in shortage all over the world.
Virus itself is quite nasty attacking both lungs and heart, it is not purely a SARS virus. It damages myocardium with ferocity causing arrhythmia, heart failure. One patient in a known teaching hospital is receiving ECMO due to heart & lungs failure from Covid19 and is 45 only!
Good luck with the fight, yaar (Aur kuch nahin bol sakta, main). On the plus side, CHina seems to have tided over the virus, so they will have plenty of equipment, masks, ECMO machines that they can sell/ship out where needed. Not trying to contain this disease is craziness. ICUs will be swamped. Hope the authorities see the light.

Sanju
BRFite
Posts: 1201
Joined: 14 Aug 2005 01:00
Location: North of 49

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 16 Mar 2020 08:21

Thanks for the updates DavidD & IndraD.

sooraj
BRFite
Posts: 1447
Joined: 06 May 2011 15:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 16 Mar 2020 08:23

France reports 924 new cases of coronavirus and 36 new deaths, raising total to 5,423 cases and 127 dead.

CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54
Contact:

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby CRamS » 16 Mar 2020 08:33

Cain Marko wrote:
sudarshan wrote:
Thx, did you experience a scene like those baggage claim crowd pictures above?

Welcome back CRSji. Glad to know that the journey was uneventful and health is in good shape.


Thx Cain. BTW, need to remind myself, I need to take that homeopathic again after 2 weeks as per the prescription :-).

Sudarshan, not even close. There was a line, but nothing unusual.

sooraj
BRFite
Posts: 1447
Joined: 06 May 2011 15:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 16 Mar 2020 08:38


SwamyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16148
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 09:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 16 Mar 2020 08:46

Vayutuvan wrote:
SwamyG wrote:However, looks like generally the governments and administration (even down to the cop level) thnings are working admirably. Jai ho.


Swamygal, long time no see.

saar, Agra isolation ward pics don't give one that much of confidence in govt. and admin.

Yeah saaar, some BRFites hooked me on to Twitter, Telegram and Whatsapp. A man can have only so many avenues to waste his time, before the sledgehammer of SHQ falls. Ramana garu reminded me of the mothership dhaaga :-)

sooraj
BRFite
Posts: 1447
Joined: 06 May 2011 15:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 16 Mar 2020 08:47

Route map of travel information of an Italian citizen who lived in Varkala
Image


SwamyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16148
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 09:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 16 Mar 2020 08:52

Vayutuvan wrote:
mappunni wrote:The schools have extended spring break for another week. The latest we hear is that the children will be taught through online classes. Most offices have asked folks to work from home indefinitely.


The question is whether the Internet can take all this load? School and university education delivery professionals would use video to deliver. It is bandwidth consuming. On top of it, we have many people working from home, and most importantly tele-medicine traffic will peak as the suspected cases go up. There will be a lot of data crunching going on with huge amount of data moving around on the network.

The schools closed in my state till March 27th. My work just allowed us to work from home till 27th. Most of the enterprise applications have SSO, and VPN is required only for a few applications. And the enterprise applications are already on the net. Code repositories are on GitHub, it is on the internet vonlee....so it is already taking the hit.
Meetings have been done already using MS Teams, Zoom, WebEx etc...even when people were on premise. Office 365 is the name of the game for many companies. And personally, my work is split on AWS Cloud and my local machines. So the dynamics will be interesting, but I thought the cable guys had already put too much capacity even back in the year 2000.

ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 145
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ManSingh » 16 Mar 2020 09:31

So my office is being shut down after one colleague tested positive. Cannot fully work from home due to nature of work.

Also have been recommended to self quarantine. This is SE khan land.

Dileep
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5854
Joined: 04 Apr 2005 08:17
Location: Dera Mahab Ali धरा महाबलिस्याः درا مهاب الي

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Dileep » 16 Mar 2020 09:57

It is the respiratory failure that fires the kill shot. The problem is, when the number of patients are more than the available equipment, you need to let some of them die. Respiratory assistance is continuous. Not like injecting antibiotics.

For normal flu, in most of the cases the respiratory issue happens as a secondary bacterial infection. The typical story is, you get the fever, cold etc, and then after two to three days, the infection set in. Antibiotics go in and you recover in a few days.

But.. there are indeed flus that directly infect the respiratory tract.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: saip and 66 guests