Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Dileep
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5821
Joined: 04 Apr 2005 08:17
Location: Dera Mahab Ali धरा महाबलिस्याः درا مهاب الي

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Dileep » 16 Mar 2020 09:57

It is the respiratory failure that fires the kill shot. The problem is, when the number of patients are more than the available equipment, you need to let some of them die. Respiratory assistance is continuous. Not like injecting antibiotics.

For normal flu, in most of the cases the respiratory issue happens as a secondary bacterial infection. The typical story is, you get the fever, cold etc, and then after two to three days, the infection set in. Antibiotics go in and you recover in a few days.

But.. there are indeed flus that directly infect the respiratory tract.

arvin
BRFite
Posts: 359
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arvin » 16 Mar 2020 11:43



Italians nationals constitute 15% of the cases. One italy returned mallu roamed around in thrisshur and another italian national roamed around in T' puram. I think both didnt declare their italian travel history.

arvin
BRFite
Posts: 359
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arvin » 16 Mar 2020 11:46

.

pgbhat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4127
Joined: 16 Dec 2008 21:47
Location: Hayden's Ferry

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pgbhat » 16 Mar 2020 12:24

Are there any simulations done for duration of social distancing norms that need to be followed collectively so that we can get through with the epidemic? That would be more interesting as it would help in resource planning and management.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3579
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 16 Mar 2020 12:42

The biggest failure has been non availability of testing kit which gives faster result.

People coming in to airport could have been segregated at airport by proper testing, rather than letting them go in to the population, to develop symptoms later.

ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 653
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 16 Mar 2020 12:48

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isis-issues-coronavirus-travel-advice-terrorists-should-avoid-europe-5m89dvjjw
The Isis terrorist group is steering clear of Europe because of the coronavirus. Having previously urged its supporters to attack European cities, the group is now advising members to “stay away from the land of the epidemic” in case they become infected

RajD
BRFite
Posts: 144
Joined: 29 Mar 2011 16:01

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby RajD » 16 Mar 2020 12:52

Breaking news.
Maharashtra on fire, seems to be heading towards total disaster. Times Now reporting that 11 corona suspects who had arrived from Dubai have escaped from quarantine ward of a govt hospital in Vashi.
https://twitter.com/Times Now/status/1239385455813988353?s=09
Also, they are reporting that 92 people are being monitored in Nashik and 23 fresh suspects have been admitted to hospital there. I've screen grab of this news. Don't know how to post it.
Surprisingly, there is still no word regarding this on any Marathi news channel.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3948
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kit » 16 Mar 2020 12:56

Corona Virus Cases..

New York
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 105
wk 3 - 613

France
wk 1 - 12
wk 2 - 191
wk 3 - 653
wk 4 - 4499

Iran
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 43
wk 3 - 245
wk 4 - 4747
wk 5 - 12729

Italy
wk 1 - 3
wk 2 - 152
wk 3 - 1036
wk 4 - 6362
wk 5 - 21157

Spain
wk 1 - 8
wk 3 - 674
wk 4 - 6043


India

Week 1 - 3
Week 2 - 24
Week 3 - 105

Next two weeks are crucial for India.
If we take adequate precaution and break the chain then we can tide the Corona virus Outbreak else we have a big problem in hand especially for the elderly population
So far so good. India has done well so far in its fight to contain Corona Virus. Now we are in stage 3 in which Virus spreads through social contacts & in social gatherings. This is most critical stage & number of confirmed cases spread exponentially everyday like what happened in Italy between last week of February & second week of March. From 300 to 10,000. If India is not able to manage this stage for next 3 to 4 weeks then we could have confirmed cases not in Thousands but in Lakhs. This next one month is crucial. That is why most events & public gatherings have been closed till 15th April.

Just because schools are closed avoid getting that compulsive travel & Holiday bug. Holidays will come next year too why try your luck with Corona specially with children. Marriage functions, Birthday parties etc can wait. Don’t try your luck & that bravado that nothing will happen to me. Next 30 days will be most crucial in medical History of India. Take all precautions while at home & while outside for any important work. Precaution is not panic.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4616
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2020 12:57

What the hell is going on? There is no policy conformity even at this stage?

California already set precedence on handling a cruise ship with infected members with the Grand Princess. Florida with the sane scenario, allows thousands to just walk off the ship and into the airport. Combined with the fiasco of the returnees from Europe jamming the air hubs, you can predict a massive spike of new infections coming with almost complete certainty.

https://miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241209366.html


Thousands leave Miami cruise ship without screenings after former passenger got COVID-19
BY TAYLOR DOLVEN MARCH 15, 2020 03:11 PM

Despite the positive test for COVID-19 from a passenger who had disembarked days earlier, thousands of people were allowed to leave a cruise ship in Miami on Sunday without undergoing medical screening.

The former passenger got off the MSC Meraviglia in Miami on March 8 after an eight-day Caribbean cruise, leaving 103 passengers and the ship’s crew aboard for the next voyage. Four days later, after the ship had sailed with thousands of additional new passengers aboard, the Public Health Agency of Canada informed Broward-based MSC Cruises that the former passenger had tested positive.

Once it received the result, the company said it isolated in individual cabins seven crew members who had been in close contact with the passenger. But instead of holding the ship off the Florida coast and testing people on board for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, MSC said U.S. health authorities cleared it to dock Sunday and disembark passengers as normal.

The docking in Miami is a sharp contrast to the protocol in California, where a former passenger of the Grand Princess cruise ship tested positive in early March after disembarking. In that case, the California health department and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tested 46 people on board while the ship and thousands of passengers and crew idled off the coast for three days; 21 tested positive, 19 of them crew. U.S. health authorities said they transferred people who needed medical care to hospitals and all other American passengers to Air Force bases or hotels in California, Texas, and Georgia for a two-week quarantine.

In the case of the Miami ship, MSC Meraviglia, no one on board was tested for COVID-19 and 3,877 passengers disembarked freely at PortMiami on Sunday. Many went directly to Miami International Airport for flights home.


pgbhat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4127
Joined: 16 Dec 2008 21:47
Location: Hayden's Ferry

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pgbhat » 16 Mar 2020 12:59

Save lives with Social Distancing: How to protect your family from coronavirus, primed to hit India like a bomb - Devi Shetty.
Biogen, a Boston-based biotech company, held a conference in the last week of February. 175 senior managers from around the world attended this meeting, including two from Italy. Within a week, 70 of them were infected with Covid-19, making it the single largest outbreak in Massachusetts. My son is studying in MIT and stays five minutes away from Biogen’s head office. He is now stuck at home because Massachusetts has declared a state of emergency and all educational institutions are closed.
I congratulate the Karnataka government for already announcing these measures and I encourage other states to follow the same. State governments must assume that 10% of the population could get infected with Covid-19. A city like Bengaluru will require over 5,000 critical care beds with oxygen.

There are over 50,000 young Indian doctors trained from overseas medical colleges waiting for licence to practice in India. All of them should be given temporary licence to work under a senior doctor in critical care units of public and private hospitals. In two weeks, they will be an important asset to overcome the crisis, if it happens.

RajD
BRFite
Posts: 144
Joined: 29 Mar 2011 16:01

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby RajD » 16 Mar 2020 13:01

I've posted the screen grabs of the news from Nashik.
https://twitter.com/drrsda/status/12394 ... 81952?s=19
Last edited by RajD on 16 Mar 2020 13:04, edited 1 time in total.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4616
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2020 13:02

RajD wrote:Breaking news.
Maharashtra on fire, seems to be heading towards total disaster. Times Now reporting that 11 corona suspects who had arrived from Dubai have escaped from quarantine ward of a govt hospital in Vashi.
https://twitter.com/Times Now/status/1239385455813988353?s=09
Also, they are reporting that 92 people are being monitored in Nashik and 23 fresh suspects have been admitted to hospital there. I've screen grab of this news. Don't know how to post it.
Surprisingly, there is still no word regarding this on any Marathi news channel.


My god. They need to put guards at those quarantine locations. Anyone knowing desi behavior would know that escape attempts would be inevitable. These selfish morons are undermining everything.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22498
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 16 Mar 2020 13:06

other states should do the same.

this is no time for mollycoddling "minorities" or anyone else for that matter :mrgreen:

UP invokes Section 3 of Epidemic Diseases Act. Those who hide #Covid19 symptoms, refuse quarantine and medical assistance or raise obstacles to Govt response will face jail and fine under S 188 IPC.
#YogiRoxx https://zeenews.india.com/hindi/india/up-uttarakhand/lucknow-administrartion-order-person-will-be-jailed-for-hiding-and-obstructing-the-coronavirus-inspection/653956 via @zeenews

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4616
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2020 13:10

pgbhat wrote:Save lives with Social Distancing: How to protect your family from coronavirus, primed to hit India like a bomb - Devi Shetty.
Biogen, a Boston-based biotech company, held a conference in the last week of February. 175 senior managers from around the world attended this meeting, including two from Italy. Within a week, 70 of them were infected with Covid-19, making it the single largest outbreak in Massachusetts. My son is studying in MIT and stays five minutes away from Biogen’s head office. He is now stuck at home because Massachusetts has declared a state of emergency and all educational institutions are closed.
I congratulate the Karnataka government for already announcing these measures and I encourage other states to follow the same. State governments must assume that 10% of the population could get infected with Covid-19. A city like Bengaluru will require over 5,000 critical care beds with oxygen.

There are over 50,000 young Indian doctors trained from overseas medical colleges waiting for licence to practice in India. All of them should be given temporary licence to work under a senior doctor in critical care units of public and private hospitals. In two weeks, they will be an important asset to overcome the crisis, if it happens.


The Biogen situation was a near certainty to happen because Boston's Logan international is a hub for air travel from Europe and travelers from Italy were never screened. The Boston Globe newspaper covering this was incredulous.

I'm starting to wonder if there isn't a certain segment of the US government that wants "herd immunity" like the UK. Some of this is inexplicable when the US reacted quickly and forcefully in cutting off travel from China and then had more than a month to tune and expand this policy for evolving threats.

jaysimha
BRFite
Posts: 1187
Joined: 20 Dec 2017 14:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jaysimha » 16 Mar 2020 13:45

Indian council of medical research -- COVID-19 Updates

https://icmr.nic.in/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Testing_sites_for_COVID19.pdf



Special issue of the Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR) on Coronavirus “India &
COVID-19” coming soon.

https://icmr.nic.in/sites/default/files/upload_documents/corona_webpage_v1.pdf
Special issue of the Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR) on Coronavirus “India &
COVID-19” coming soon.
Articles currently in process are listed below:
• Ethics preparedness for infectious disease outbreaks research in India – A case for novel
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
• Lopinavir/ritonavir combination therapy among symptomatic COVID-19 patients in
India: protocol for restricted public health emergency use
• Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the COVID-19 transmission in
India: Mathematical model-based approach
• Guidance for building a dedicated health facility to contain the spread of the 2019 novel
Coronavirus outbreak
• The 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak: A review of the current evidence



https://icmr.nic.in/node/39071

Many more useful info / links in this site.

vcsekhar
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 96
Joined: 01 Aug 2009 13:27
Location: Hyderabad, India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vcsekhar » 16 Mar 2020 16:29

pgbhat wrote:Are there any simulations done for duration of social distancing norms that need to be followed collectively so that we can get through with the epidemic? That would be more interesting as it would help in resource planning and management.


Here is a very nice article on WaPo with simulations for number of infected related to quarantine and social distancing methods.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/

Hope it helps... Cheers

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vikas » 16 Mar 2020 17:01

kit wrote:Corona Virus Cases..

New York
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 105
wk 3 - 613

France
wk 1 - 12
wk 2 - 191
wk 3 - 653
wk 4 - 4499

Iran
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 43
wk 3 - 245
wk 4 - 4747
wk 5 - 12729

Italy
wk 1 - 3
wk 2 - 152
wk 3 - 1036
wk 4 - 6362
wk 5 - 21157

Spain
wk 1 - 8
wk 3 - 674
wk 4 - 6043


India
Week 1 - 3
Week 2 - 24
Week 3 - 105

Next two weeks are crucial for India.
If we take adequate precaution and break the chain then we can tide the Corona virus Outbreak else we have a big problem in hand especially for the elderly population.


Looks like the infected population jumps to 4K-6K in the 4th week and then it would go on with exponential growth rate if not quarantined properly.
We are looking at a major set of population eventually getting infected if jokers keep running away or allowed to walk into the general public without proper screening.
Those running away from quarantined ward should be blacklisted and debarred from any govt benefit for the rest of their lives including Jail term,.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4616
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2020 17:03

We have better get ready for a massive global recession too.

Analysts were predicting a 3.0% decline in industrial production but the number turn out to be 13.5%.

They were predicting a 4.0% decline in retail sales but it was 20.5%. That's a 20.5% CONTRACTION. These are historic numbers. And with chini data, it could be even worse.

With social distancing being seen as the only option and the situation in the US and Europe spiraling out of control, these same numbers will be replicated there too. This is economic annihilation on a historic scale.

Plan wisely for both physical and financial health and safety everyone.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3075314/coronavirus-caused-dramatic-collapse-chinas-economy-warning

Coronavirus: China’s economy suffers dramatic collapse in January, February in warning to rest of world

The coronavirus’ impact on China’s economy was made plain in new numbers released on Monday, which showed a dramatic collapse across the board.

Amid a widespread shutdown of manufacturing operations, industrial production – a measure of manufacturing, mining and utilities activity – declined by 13.5 per cent over the first two months of the year, combined data for January and February showed.

This was the first decline on record, although ordinarily the data is released monthly. But the numbers were well below expectations of a 3.0 per cent decline.

Retail sales, a key metric of consumption in the world’s second largest economy, fell by 20.5 per cent, again the first decline on record. This was well below the median forecast of a group of analysts, conducted by Bloomberg, which predicted a 4.0 per cent contraction.


kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3948
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kit » 16 Mar 2020 17:41

Vikas wrote:
kit wrote:Corona Virus Cases..

New York
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 105
wk 3 - 613

France
wk 1 - 12
wk 2 - 191
wk 3 - 653
wk 4 - 4499

Iran
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 43
wk 3 - 245
wk 4 - 4747
wk 5 - 12729

Italy
wk 1 - 3
wk 2 - 152
wk 3 - 1036
wk 4 - 6362
wk 5 - 21157

Spain
wk 1 - 8
wk 3 - 674
wk 4 - 6043


India
Week 1 - 3
Week 2 - 24
Week 3 - 105

Next two weeks are crucial for India.
If we take adequate precaution and break the chain then we can tide the Corona virus Outbreak else we have a big problem in hand especially for the elderly population.


Looks like the infected population jumps to 4K-6K in the 4th week and then it would go on with exponential growth rate if not quarantined properly.
We are looking at a major set of population eventually getting infected if jokers keep running away or allowed to walk into the general public without proper screening.
Those running away from quarantined ward should be blacklisted and debarred from any govt benefit for the rest of their lives including Jail term,.


Those who jump quarantine., Indian or Foreigner must face attempted murder charges

we are facing a potentially lethal virus with no cure

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 16 Mar 2020 18:23

I don't think anyone quarantine the virus for long. We better have plan B in place. This is nothing but bio-war unleashed by God(if not chinis or amerikis). It's too late anyway. One can't treat bio-war like this.

My suggestions to GoI if the number reaches 5000:

1. quarantine 50+ age folks where they can be better protected from this disease without going through all the panic.

2. enroll 15-30 age folks into some temporary army type of organization. It is mandatory for them to help with hospitals and grunt work.

3. build temporary hospitals. if not, at least keep things ready so that they can build hospitals at moment notice.

4. take over control of every public place. including pubs and bars.

5. Close the borders. Not even a rat should cross the border. Only one or 2 entry points should be there for outsiders.

6. Secure food and supply chains. We must have enough grains to last for 1 year at least.

SandeepA
BRFite
Posts: 661
Joined: 22 Oct 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SandeepA » 16 Mar 2020 18:41

Let's just take South Korea as an example as the testing there has been thorough and extensive. Of the ~8000 cases found ~80 have died, a CFR of 1% in a country where the testing is so thorough that even if you are asymptomatic you can still be detected. Now consider the CFR of flu at 0.1%, where even if you are moderately symptomatic chances are you will not report it which means the real denominator is much larger. So a Covid fatality rate that is 1000 times that of Flu is not entirely unrealistic.

sajo
BRFite
Posts: 227
Joined: 01 Mar 2019 17:01

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 16 Mar 2020 18:51

Deepak Mhaisekar, Divisional Commissioner of Pune: Under Section 144 (1) and (2) whatever restrictions were needed to contain the spread of coronavirus, have been imposed. If needed, further restrictions will be added and action will be taken accordingly.


A colleague was taking his cancer stricken father to Tata Hospital (mumbai) for treatment, and reported 2-3 hour long queues just to enter because they are screening everybody. Our domestic help is thinking of going on a holiday to their native place in KA because Pune schools have declared holiday. The significant other just spent considerable time trying to educate, but mostly to no avail.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 16 Mar 2020 19:04

what's the end point for us now? Are we going back to work like as usual after last one is cured? The vaccine/cure will take at least 6 months. What will be the action plan after we cure the last guy?

if our collective ar*es are not under fire, I would have laughed at the west now. First shot fired, and they revert back to their cave man attitude - get grubby hands on resources and hoard them until they run out. The solution will fall on their heads. what a primitive society!!!

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2302
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 16 Mar 2020 19:22

SandeepA wrote:Now consider the CFR of flu at 0.1%, where even if you are moderately symptomatic chances are you will not report it which means the real denominator is much larger. So a Covid fatality rate that is 1000 times that of Flu is not entirely unrealistic.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S. However, CDC has estimated the burden of flu since 2010 using a mathematical model that is based on data collected through the U.S. Influenza Surveillance System, a network that covers approximately 8.5% of the U.S. population (~27 million people).


So the 0.1% estimate for flu CFR is based on an estimated denominator, not on reported infections. The CFR for flu could be higher (i.e., denominator could have been over-estimated) or lower (i.e., denominator could have been under-estimated). We don't know the "actual CFR" for flu.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1437
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 16 Mar 2020 19:41

As per COVID dashboard, out of 105 infections in India ONLY 28 were transmitted within India.

Further 20% of Italian population is above 65, in India only 5%

Primus
BRFite
Posts: 999
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 16 Mar 2020 19:45

In a different life, my mentor was a renowned epidemiologist and I did publish some work with him. The problem with all data is the lack of any means of verification. Everything is an estimate, even with those disease that are 100% reportable. It all depends upon the veracity of the patient reporting, the guy documenting it in the database and so on. With something like the flu or even Covid-19, there could be wide differences in the actual numbers and what is estimated.

The prudent thing to do would be to avoid the damn thing as much as possible.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 16 Mar 2020 19:49

https://innovate.mygov.in/covid19/

Guys, please share your ideas on how to combat the virus. I will try to submit my own on how to save 50+ old elderly population.

SandeepA
BRFite
Posts: 661
Joined: 22 Oct 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SandeepA » 16 Mar 2020 20:18

For all those who care.. Porkis now have more cases than India. India 129, Porkis 136 (up from 53 yesterday).

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 797
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 16 Mar 2020 20:34

This is a good global map:

https://www.bing.com/covid

The nice thing about this one is that it lists active cases, cured cases, and deaths separately. There's no room for complacency, but let's also understand that the cumulative cases and new cases don't give the full picture. The good news is that many cases are dropping off (i.e. cured, and not dropping dead). E.g., China now has less than 10,000 active cases (officially) and 67,000 recovered.

Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2388
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 16 Mar 2020 20:39

syam wrote:
1. quarantine 50+ age folks where they can be better protected from this disease without going through all the panic.



You can't do that in practice. The younger people will just go out, get infected and infect them. You have to maintain social distancing for the entire population and minimize unnecessary contact regardless of age.

Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2388
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 16 Mar 2020 20:40

SandeepA wrote:For all those who care.. Porkis now have more cases than India. India 129, Porkis 136 (up from 53 yesterday).


They claim that the sudden increase in cases is because of people who came in from Iran and were quarantined.

vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3096
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 16 Mar 2020 20:42

chola wrote:What the hell is going on? There is no policy conformity even at this stage?

California already set precedence on handling a cruise ship with infected members with the Grand Princess. Florida with the sane scenario, allows thousands to just walk off the ship and into the airport.


Rumors and hope. A section in Florida believes that the virus won't spread as much because most of Florida is already at 85-90 degrees F.

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 797
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 16 Mar 2020 20:46

^^As I understand, states are not the ones handling cruise terminals. There is federal immigration and customs. I am not sure about the case in which "thousands walked off the ship", but my info (for international flight arrivals at the world's busiest airport) is that CDC and CBP agents are boarding planes, doing some sort of disinfection/spraying, and collecting info from passengers.

Let us not set off random rumors and pointless conversations without reliable information.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 16 Mar 2020 21:01

Bart S wrote:You can't do that in practice. The younger people will just go out, get infected and infect them. You have to maintain social distancing for the entire population and minimize unnecessary contact regardless of age.

That's why I mentioned specific age. 50+ years age group living in some township type of quarantine area maintained by armed forces during crisis times. This can be turned into vacation type homes for older people during peacetime. Government doesn't need to do much as the older folks will have their own money to spend on their township.

We have very huge population of older people who are living alone and frankly they need their peace to pass their last decades somewhere nearby hill or river or sea side. I am sure we have acres of such land near to these places.

My idea sounds outlandish, but at least the older people will have much better chance at survival if they are protected from regular society. Please nitpick my thoughts. I really want to come up with some thing for older folks in disaster times like now. If the cases go above 5k, Italy like situation will happen in India.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1883
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 16 Mar 2020 21:07

India has initiated first stage of lockdown...
The number of coronavirus cases creeping towards 120, the centre today declared a countrywide lockdown of schools, colleges, gyms and swimming pools -- crowded areas that could allow for exponential spread of the virus. After a meeting of a Group of Ministers which reviewed the situation today, the government also advised that people avoid non-essential travel and employees of private companies work from home.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4616
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2020 21:14

KL Dubey wrote:^^As I understand, states are not the ones handling cruise terminals. There is federal immigration and customs. I am not sure about the case in which "thousands walked off the ship", but my info (for international flight arrivals at the world's busiest airport) is that CDC and CBP agents are boarding planes, doing some sort of disinfection/spraying, and collecting info from passengers.

Let us not set off random rumors and pointless conversations without reliable information.


^^^ Sir, the cruise ship story is from the Miami Herald which is a publication of record for that city just as the Boston Globe is for its city when it reported that travelers from Italy were coming in unchecked at the Boston international airport at Logan a few weeks ago. We saw how the Boston story panned out. Hardly random rumors when it involved that many people and a local source.

We shouldn't dismiss news from reputable local sources covering at ground level if we believe that the free press can point out issues so that they'll be fixed. If not, we'll be in the same boat as the PRC or former USSR and simply wait for the good graces of the bureaucracy to fix whatever ills we rather not know about.
Last edited by chola on 16 Mar 2020 21:14, edited 1 time in total.

Rishi_Tri
BRFite
Posts: 449
Joined: 13 Feb 2017 14:49

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishi_Tri » 16 Mar 2020 21:14

kit wrote:Corona Virus Cases..

New York
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 105
wk 3 - 613

France
wk 1 - 12
wk 2 - 191
wk 3 - 653
wk 4 - 4499

Iran
wk 1 - 2
wk 2 - 43
wk 3 - 245
wk 4 - 4747
wk 5 - 12729

Italy
wk 1 - 3
wk 2 - 152
wk 3 - 1036
wk 4 - 6362
wk 5 - 21157

Spain
wk 1 - 8
wk 3 - 674
wk 4 - 6043


India

Week 1 - 3
Week 2 - 24
Week 3 - 105

Next two weeks are crucial for India.
If we take adequate precaution and break the chain then we can tide the Corona virus Outbreak else we have a big problem in hand especially for the elderly population
So far so good. India has done well so far in its fight to contain Corona Virus. Now we are in stage 3 in which Virus spreads through social contacts & in social gatherings. This is most critical stage & number of confirmed cases spread exponentially everyday like what happened in Italy between last week of February & second week of March. From 300 to 10,000. If India is not able to manage this stage for next 3 to 4 weeks then we could have confirmed cases not in Thousands but in Lakhs. This next one month is crucial. That is why most events & public gatherings have been closed till 15th April.

Just because schools are closed avoid getting that compulsive travel & Holiday bug. Holidays will come next year too why try your luck with Corona specially with children. Marriage functions, Birthday parties etc can wait. Don’t try your luck & that bravado that nothing will happen to me. Next 30 days will be most crucial in medical History of India. Take all precautions while at home & while outside for any important work. Precaution is not panic.


This is deliberate fear mongering. The first cases in India were reported in first week of February in Kerala.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 763438.cms

Yes Wuhan Virus is very contagious, Yes it Kills people, Yes it has shut down cities and countries but it does not mean you throw any goddamn number without verifying.

Posters on this forum have been talking about Millions of People Killed and what not and contributing to fear, runs on grocery stores etc.

Even in locked down Italy or China, people were able to go and buy groceries.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 16 Mar 2020 21:37

The virus itself is not that dangerous for most of us. It will only effect the ones with weak imune systems and very old people. IN the west they are trying to strech the Pandemi in becase they do not have sufficient hospital capacity to deal with an extreme spike. Basically if a case goes to the lungs, the patient needs to be put in ICU, where some are saved and some die.

In the case of India, it does not really matter for the vast majority of people, when the virus hit. Because most will not be able to afford the ICU care any way. And most of the people do not even make it to the stage, where they have a weak immune defence, because something else takes them.

saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3793
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 16 Mar 2020 21:38

Looking at COVIDOUT.in Website, there were 3 cases on Feb 2 and then Five cases on Mar 2. So no cases detected in a whole month! Now after 14 days the count jumped by 113. It appears that the Italian tourist group became the epicenter of infection and caused the count to spike after the Kerala group was contained.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13360
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 16 Mar 2020 21:49

Rishi_Tri wrote:This is deliberate fear mongering. The first cases in India were reported in first week of February in Kerala.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 763438.cms

Yes Wuhan Virus is very contagious, Yes it Kills people, Yes it has shut down cities and countries but it does not mean you throw any goddamn number without verifying.

If you have a problem with the numbers and know they are wrong, then present figures that are correct. There's nothing fear-mongering about a set of data . This *IS* a critical time and both society and administration need to be aware of real case scaling factors to understand how numbers exploded in other countries - it has everything to do with how the treatment of the pandemic can be accomplished.

Mod Note
Generally, posts that attack other's posts will be looked at seriously, if the original post has more substance than yours. We don't need such noise now, and unless you can do the hard work of finding information that's more credible , more detailed or better, you'll be seen as a noisy troll and treated accordingly. This is not a time where we can entertain lazy polemical "oh I don't agree with you!" talk.

If you think something's wrong information, find and post correct information or information showing that what's posted is wrong, or please avoid posting.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Anoop and 21 guests