Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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saumitra_j
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saumitra_j » 18 Mar 2020 21:29

Here is an interesting study: Hydroxychloroquinine and Azithromycin for treatment of COVID-19 I would reckon these are easily available drugs, aren't they?

Key point to summarize: This combination treatment reduced the viral load in 6 days! See this tweet


They are doing more, you can read it all here. I hope India also uses this opportunity to find out how effective these medicines are.
Last edited by saumitra_j on 18 Mar 2020 21:32, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Mar 2020 21:29

Interesting math wrt estimating case numbers in a given region. Simple and easy for non math geniuses like your truly. Based on the work by Thomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Mar 2020 21:33

Suraj wrote:No thanks. This is the coronavirus resource thread. This is NOT the place to discuss potential world wars. Find yourself another place like face-kitab to peddle CTs.

So the original post was okay to suggest such a scenario? But I get rapped for responding and asking for a new thread so that this one doesn't get polluted? Nice.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 18 Mar 2020 21:35

Cain Marko wrote:
Suraj wrote:No thanks. This is the coronavirus resource thread. This is NOT the place to discuss potential world wars. Find yourself another place like face-kitab to peddle CTs.

So the original post was okay to suggest such a scenario? But I get rapped for responding and asking for a new thread so that this one doesn't get polluted? Nice.

You didn't notice that the original post has been edited then ? Please stop your behavior of responding to non sequiturs - report the original post and don't respond.

When you become part of derailing a thread, you have no entitlement to fairness in treatment, i.e. 'why haven't you punished all others equally too ?' anymore. Moderation doesn't emphasize fairness. It emphasizes putting a stop to the latest in the sequence.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 18 Mar 2020 21:37

yensoy wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Check out the pictures of the Tableeghi mosque in Malaysia where the 'super spreading' event took place. A few hundred people were infected in just one event. The name of the mosque is Sri Petaling Tabligh mosque. The mosque does not look air-conditioned to me. Fresh air from outside is always a good idea and appears to be just common sense, but lets not get into a false sense of complacence that 'this cant spread in the heat and the humidity'.


The same article says that these folks were housed in packed tents, eating off the same plate, praying within confined spaces, sharing the same goat. Sure if we decide to host a Kumbh Mela at this time, same would happen here as well.

Defence in depth is what has to be done. Forced quarantine, self quarantine, social distancing, observing personal cleanliness, requiring cleanliness from others esp in service industry, boosting immunity, avoiding recirculating air, these are all measures to take. Hot weather is one of these defences (that is unavoidable in our region).


Other than the goat, all of these things happen in India too. So ...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Mar 2020 21:38

Suraj wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:So the original post was okay to suggest such a scenario? But I get rapped for responding and asking for a new thread so that this one doesn't get polluted? Nice.

You didn't notice that the original post has been edited then ? Please stop your behavior of responding to non sequiturs - report the original post and don't respond.

Apologies. Indeed didn't notice the post being edited.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 18 Mar 2020 21:44

Rahul M wrote:
nam wrote:Any reports on the latest numbers in India?

use https://covidout.in/

they have a dashboard for India data.


While they are doing a good job, they still arent official. They are collecting information from various sources, which may or may not be accurate.

Image



While lasa provides the base, how long before the pharma companies take the necessary approvals before turning it into a product that can be sold in India? Can it be expedited on war footing to bring to the market in the next couple of months at max? Meanwhile, can we import our stocks from Japan?
Last edited by sajo on 18 Mar 2020 21:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 18 Mar 2020 21:48

Paul wrote:One option in India to avoid COVID-19 is to migrate to rural areas to avoid international returnees. A few people in BLR I know have done so.

exactly. lessen the density. cities are are horribly overcrowded. it was impossible to walk in Mumbai without bumping into a half dozen people as long back as 1985.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 18 Mar 2020 22:00

Bart S wrote:
hanumadu wrote:We have to find a vaccine by november. Delhi's temperatures start falling below 90 F in november. Even for the rest of the world, they have time till October.


Relying on weather is not a strategy. The virus can continue to spread in the Southern Hemisphere while it is summer here, and then spread again when winter comes. And that is even assuming that the theories about warm weather halting the spread are even partially true (given that most of India is airconditioned, I am not sure it can be totally effective even if true).



relying on weather may not be a strategy but it can give much needed breathing room. more will be known. more will be known about what worked/works. let us not write it off that quickly, if you don't mind. by the way, scrubbing of the protective gear worn by the healthcare workers becomes that much easier.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 18 Mar 2020 22:03

sajo wrote:
Rahul M wrote:use https://covidout.in/

they have a dashboard for India data.


While they are doing a good job, they still arent official. They are collecting information from various sources, which may or may not be accurate.


is worldometer official ? yet we are quoting from there and the john hopkins page all the time.

the mofhw link posted last page is official but has a time lag and no graphs.
no one other than covidout.in is providing an India specific dashboard to my knowledge.

to each his own I guess.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 18 Mar 2020 22:56

Tamil Nadu records second positive case of #COVID-19. A person, who travelled from Delhi to Chennai, has tested positive. He is under observation in the isolation ward of Rajiv Gandhi Government General Hospital. Officials said he had reached Chennai in a train @THChennai

He is a resident of Uttar Pradesh and had come to Chennai on March 12 in search of job. Was admitted to RGGGH with symptoms on March 16, say officials

this alarming news.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 18 Mar 2020 23:09

ANI
@ANI
·
18m
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the nation on 19th March 2020 at 8 PM, during which he will talk about issues relating to COVID-19 and the efforts to combat it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 18 Mar 2020 23:31

Rahul M wrote:the mofhw link posted last page is official but has a time lag and no graphs.
no one other than covidout.in is providing an India specific dashboard to my knowledge.



I actually like the covidout.in site. One thing I was looking for was the graph and the daily reported cases. Lets say the covid.out overestimates., As long as it overestimates consistently we are fine.

Point is, instead of raw numbers, I am looking at the quantum of jumps from one day to next. Currently it is coming to @12% day-to-day increase. That is every 6 days it will double. If the doubling rate is stretched out from 6 days to 7 to 10 days, we have a handle on the pandemic. The more it is stretched out, the better it is.

However, in Indian context we have the super-elites who think they are above board. For example the IAS officer from Bengal and her son. They are risk to the society. That SOB did not even want to be tested!

I hope GOI immediately passes a law that states if you are one of those elite who flaunt the government directives willingly, they not just lose their jobs but they are on hook to pay the medical costs + interest + fine to whoever they have infected. On top of it, if there is any casualty they pay restitution to the family.

Let them challenge that in SC.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 18 Mar 2020 23:37

On weather:

1. Will hot weather stop the virus?

NO.

2. Will hot weather kill the virus?

NO.

3. So why weather matters?

In the Indian context, hot summer acts as a social distancing. Of course, Government still has to take care of ensuring that large population do not congegrate together.

The R0 factor of the virus itself is lowered. SARS-CoV-2 is an analog of SARS (@89% similar), and that virus shows suppressed transmission in warmer weather.

If social distancing + R0 < 1 can be achieved thanks to some help with weather, India has bought time for itself till November.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Mar 2020 23:58

About the kid who came back from ukistan, specifically Cambridge. Just wondering how the hell can these people afford to put their kids through that kinda college. I'm assuming Cambridge ain't exactly cheap.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 19 Mar 2020 00:06

syam wrote:
Tamil Nadu records second positive case of #COVID-19. A person, who travelled from Delhi to Chennai, has tested positive. He is under observation in the isolation ward of Rajiv Gandhi Government General Hospital. Officials said he had reached Chennai in a train @THChennai

He is a resident of Uttar Pradesh and had come to Chennai on March 12 in search of job. Was admitted to RGGGH with symptoms on March 16, say officials

this alarming news.

One of the reasons why people shouldn't rush for their ancestral villages. Stay put where they are, avoid or minimize contact with general public.

Yes small villages are safer. The problem is one can't guarantee getting there safely. We've already seen in shops and airports, what happens when a whole bunch of people try to do the same thing at once.

DONT OFFER ADVICE that results in increasing movement and contact between people!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 19 Mar 2020 00:14

I wanted to post this study

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view

made public by the Lin Lab, Stanford

http://med.stanford.edu/linlab.html


Social distancing: Could have wide range of effects.
– Current R0 rate ~ 3 (one person infects 3 other people. If they do this in ~10 days, it would account for doubling
time 1 week).
– Drop R0 to 1.5: Doubling time would increase ~4-fold. (* My attestation: That is from 1 week to 4 week)
– Drop R0 to 1.25: Doubling time would increase ~8-fold. (* 1 week to 8 week )
– Drop R0 to 1.0: Doubling time would become infinite (constant rate of new cases). (Ideal scenario - Get the R0 below 1)

• Facility/hospital quarantine: in Wuhan study, changed R0 from 3.4 to 0.32
(http://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/ ... 20030593v1).

• Weather: Maybe 10 oF increases the doubling time 2x (steady-state reduction in exterior virus levels by 50%
per Pubmed 22312351, plus reducing time × concentration of people indoors).



Hence for people willfully breaking quarantine, they must face extreme punishment.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 19 Mar 2020 00:27

Azithromycin as far as far as I know is an anti-bacterial but will it work against a virus?. Here is some personal experience. Few weeks back my son who lives in bay area and does come in contact with Chinese at work came down with sore throat and cough but he had no fever. At that time no panic, no quarantine etc. about this Covid19 Some of these Chinese returned from China at that time and worked within his team. He called his go to doctor (his mom) and she prescribed azithromycin. His cough went away and he got better. But we do not know what he contacted. He is in early thirties without any underlying medical issues and so has reasonably good immunity. Still the question is did he get Covid19 and got well or did he get just plain old cough and sore throat and that went away. Did the Zpak play any role in this? Considering that this happened several weeks ago he can not be tested now (he does not meet the protocol as he exhibits no symptoms now) and even then it may turn out nothing. In short we will never know.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 19 Mar 2020 00:32

you will know if a blood test is run for antibodies against SARS CoV 2

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 19 Mar 2020 00:35

Italy 475 deaths today. Including deaths world over, it is slowly moving towards 1000 deaths per day!

{deleted}
Last edited by Suraj on 19 Mar 2020 00:53, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Stick to factual information, no alarmism, please.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 19 Mar 2020 00:37

IndraD wrote:you will know if a blood test is run for antibodies against SARS CoV 2

But does it matter now if he is not exhibiting any symptoms and otherwise he is well? Right now he works from home.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 19 Mar 2020 00:46

disha wrote:I wanted to post this study
....
– Current R0 rate ~ 3 (one person infects 3 other people. If they do this in ~10 days, it would account for doubling
time 1 week).
– Drop R0 to 1.5: Doubling time would increase ~4-fold. (* My attestation: That is from 1 week to 4 week)
– Drop R0 to 1.25: Doubling time would increase ~8-fold. (* 1 week to 8 week )
– Drop R0 to 1.0: Doubling time would become infinite (constant rate of new cases). (Ideal scenario - Get the R0 below 1)
....


Disha ji, please check your math. Doubling time doesn't become infinite with R0=1.0. If there's a constant rate of new cases, then the doubling time increases with time, eventually going to infinity at infinite time.

IOW - today there are 1000 cases with 100 new ones every day, so today, doubling time would be 10 days (1000/100). Tomorrow, it becomes 11 days (1100/100) and so on. But 10 days from now, the current case load will be double what it is now. And 11 days from tomorrow, the case load will be double what it is tomorrow. Etc.

This is because, R0 is defined as the number of people, whom each *new infection* is expected to infect. Because the secondary infections due to those initial 1000 cases have already been factored in by the current time, and do not keep adding up today, tomorrow, day after, etc.

Hope that makes sense.

Cumulative case count never comes down, so doubling time is always a finite (though variable) value with non-zero R0.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 19 Mar 2020 00:52

saip wrote:But does it matter now if he is not exhibiting any symptoms and otherwise he is well? Right now he works from home.


Please see Saumithra_j's post above. Reproducing

saumitra_j wrote:Here is an interesting study: Hydroxychloroquinine and Azithromycin for treatment of COVID-19 I would reckon these are easily available drugs, aren't they?

Key point to summarize: This combination treatment reduced the viral load in 6 days! See this tweet


They are doing more, you can read it all here. I hope India also uses this opportunity to find out how effective these medicines are.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 19 Mar 2020 01:33

Here is another study from Chinese physicians. This is only about efficacy of chloroquin phosphate, the anti-malarial drug commonly available in India
Link

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anishns » 19 Mar 2020 01:42

Anti-bacterial is probably for the pneumonia which results due to the corona virus!


saip wrote:Azithromycin as far as far as I know is an anti-bacterial but will it work against a virus?. Here is some personal experience. Few weeks back my son who lives in bay area and does come in contact with Chinese at work came down with sore throat and cough but he had no fever. At that time no panic, no quarantine etc. about this Covid19 Some of these Chinese returned from China at that time and worked within his team. He called his go to doctor (his mom) and she prescribed azithromycin. His cough went away and he got better. But we do not know what he contacted. He is in early thirties without any underlying medical issues and so has reasonably good immunity. Still the question is did he get Covid19 and got well or did he get just plain old cough and sore throat and that went away. Did the Zpak play any role in this? Considering that this happened several weeks ago he can not be tested now (he does not meet the protocol as he exhibits no symptoms now) and even then it may turn out nothing. In short we will never know.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vinod » 19 Mar 2020 01:52

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... says-china

Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China
Shares in Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, which developed favipiravir, surged after praise by Chinese official following clinical trials

Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.

Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vinod » 19 Mar 2020 01:56

https://www.biospectrumindia.com/news/4 ... id-19.html

Mumbai based API major, Lasa Supergenerics Ltd In collaboration with the Institute of Chemical Technology (ICT) recently announced commencement for the development of antiviral compound Favipiravir as Covid19 treatment.

Commenting on the development, Dr. Omkar Herlekar, Chairman– Lasa Supergenerics Limited, said "We are working together with all our efforts to commence the research and scale-up activity of Favipiravir, antiviral drug, showing its promising activity for inhabitation of wide range of viruses, we will take necessary steps for getting permission from Drug Controller General of India to Launch product in Indian Market at the earliest, Once the Favipiravir therapy is approved by global regulatory authorities we would approach DCGI for conducting required bioequivalence clinical trials in India and also seek for strategic private investments and/or Government aid to commercialise this product subject to all regulatory approvals and trials.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 19 Mar 2020 01:58

If Favipiravir is a relatively new drug, won't the Japanese company which developed it still have a patent on it? How can we get a generic so soon?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 19 Mar 2020 02:16

I believe the Indian pharmaceutical regulators recognise only synthetic pathways as patentable.Thus a modified organic chemistry pathway to the same drug is legal in India.

That is one of the reasons India is content to let China provide low end pharmaceuticals. Apparently their organic chemistry chops are great.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 19 Mar 2020 02:25

Huge jump in US cases from 4226 on 17/03/2020 to 7038 on 18/03/2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 19 Mar 2020 02:28

Increase in testing numbers, I presume.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 19 Mar 2020 02:42

India numbers are holding a 15-20% daily increase. We seem to be in the initial stage of community transmission.

We need to clampdown now, before it goes out of control.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 19 Mar 2020 02:48

BSR Murthy wrote:A different take on the approach to the nCV outbreak - an interview with the legendary vaccine scientist, Dr. Paul Offit. The interviewer is Dr. Zubin Damania - popularly known as ZDoggMD.


The above is a must-watch. And I do agree with Dr. Offit's views (he puts it very succinctly). Maybe I am biased, but definitely listen to him. He helps design the flu vaccines and has nailed it this year.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby mappunni » 19 Mar 2020 02:51

nachiket wrote:If Favipiravir is a relatively new drug, won't the Japanese company which developed it still have a patent on it? How can we get a generic so soon?


Doesn't India only have a process patent and not a product patent only?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 19 Mar 2020 02:53

sudarshan wrote:
disha wrote:I wanted to post this study
....
– Current R0 rate ~ 3 (one person infects 3 other people. If they do this in ~10 days, it would account for doubling
time 1 week).
– Drop R0 to 1.5: Doubling time would increase ~4-fold. (* My attestation: That is from 1 week to 4 week)
– Drop R0 to 1.25: Doubling time would increase ~8-fold. (* 1 week to 8 week )
– Drop R0 to 1.0: Doubling time would become infinite (constant rate of new cases). (Ideal scenario - Get the R0 below 1)
....


Disha ji, please check your math. Doubling time doesn't become infinite with R0=1.0. If there's a constant rate of new cases, then the doubling time increases with time, eventually going to infinity at infinite time.


I think what the presenter's meant was that the rate of new cases will be constant and hence a flat line. Not an upward curve. Having said that, the line is from their presentation and not mine.

The only line I added on that line was ("Ideal Scenario - Get the R0 below 1").
Last edited by disha on 19 Mar 2020 02:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 19 Mar 2020 02:53

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03 ... s-control/

Inside the model that may be making US, UK rethink coronavirus control
An Imperial College report considers whether anything short of a vaccine will help.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 19 Mar 2020 02:55

mappunni wrote:Doesn't India only have a process patent and not a product patent only?


India has both when last checked. Either of same product different process and same process different product patent can be applied. The later is good for semi-conductors or super-conductors.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 19 Mar 2020 03:09

Guys, this is a resource thread. Everyone is nervous about this pandemic, and everyone knows the dangers. We are all in it together, and no individual on this planet is immune to this virus.

So do not go about saying "we are screwed" every now and then....it does not do anything to life the spirits. No point in speculating and CT. Please post only resources from good sources. Maybe with a brief perspective of yours.

We are all screwed, but do not keep reminding all of us the same thing. Do not make this worse than a Whatsapp forward.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 19 Mar 2020 03:10

The way things have shutdown is obviously not ideal, as governments around the world have never planned for such a scenario. But there is no choice.

Take Italy. in 3 weeks, with just 2000+ deaths and 27-30K recorded infection, it''s health system has paralyzed. If a "broken finger" was killing 2k & causing people to fill up hospitals & blocking beds in 3 weeks... we would react the same way.

You can keep the the country open, IF you are ready to live with a paralyzed health system. How long will you last?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SwamyG » 19 Mar 2020 03:16

saip wrote:Azithromycin as far as far as I know is an anti-bacterial but will it work against a virus?. Here is some personal experience. Few weeks back my son who lives in bay area and does come in contact with Chinese at work came down with sore throat and cough but he had no fever. At that time no panic, no quarantine etc. about this Covid19 Some of these Chinese returned from China at that time and worked within his team. He called his go to doctor (his mom) and she prescribed azithromycin. His cough went away and he got better. But we do not know what he contacted. He is in early thirties without any underlying medical issues and so has reasonably good immunity. Still the question is did he get Covid19 and got well or did he get just plain old cough and sore throat and that went away. Did the Zpak play any role in this? Considering that this happened several weeks ago he can not be tested now (he does not meet the protocol as he exhibits no symptoms now) and even then it may turn out nothing. In short we will never know.

My wife gets this every year a few times. Cough, sore throat, fatigue etc. But no fever. She got this last week as well. We were shit scared. No medication, but tylenol. Some cough medication she still had handy from her last episode. She is better, and I can see strength returning. I have seen this in her the last 2 years or so. Could be a variation of some nasty thing.


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