Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 19 Mar 2020 14:56

Modiji is going to address the nation at 8 PM today on coronavirus. Any ideas on what he is going to speak about?

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 19 Mar 2020 15:05

a very good paper.

Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)

stimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 19 Mar 2020 15:40

Shaktimaan wrote:Modiji is going to address the nation at 8 PM today on coronavirus. Any ideas on what he is going to speak about?

I have a feeling this would be something like note ban and people may be banned from coming out. This might be to prevent panic buying. There may be announcement not to come out and cops/military in every superstore and limiting what you can buy. I am off to stock before 8 o clock.

syam · Post by **syam** » 19 Mar 2020 15:50

given its bat background, people will start talking about demons and stuff. we have significant populations from both cults. goi should prepare for that too.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 19 Mar 2020 16:22

Shaktimaan wrote:Modiji is going to address the nation at 8 PM today on coronavirus. Any ideas on what he is going to speak about?

Might be general gyan on COVID-19 and what all GoI is doing to combat this virus.
I doubt a general lockdown across India is advisable, feasible or even required at this hour.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 19 Mar 2020 16:51

As health is a State subject, I doubt Modiji is going to announce any drastic quarantine type moves. It may be a general speech on our efforts to fight coronavirus.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 19 Mar 2020 17:01

Rahul M wrote: the mofhw link posted last page is official but has a time lag and no graphs.
no one other than covidout.in is providing an India specific dashboard to my knowledge.

Absolutely correct sir!

Worryingly, two patients have been moved to intensive care, this figure was 0 till yesterday.

Almost all cases in India require hospitalisation. Whether as an isolation requirement or genuine medical intervention, I do not know.

Recovered : 15
Dead : 3
ICU : 2

Pune's original Corona ChinaVirus patients, the first ones outside Kerala, are now off medication and are only completing their mandatory quarantine.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 19 Mar 2020 17:09

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/worl ... -news.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: As Virus Spreads Swiftly Worldwide, China Reports Zero New Infections
The White House is seeking $500 billion in direct payments to taxpayers and President Trump invoked a wartime law to press companies to make medical supplies. Britain, bracing for a surge, puts 20,000 troops on standby.
RIGHT NOW The European Union’s chief Brexit trade negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he had tested positive for the virus.
As the virus spreads, the human toll grows.
China reported its first day with no new locally transmitted coronavirus infections, three months after the first case was detected. But the march of the affliction gathered pace while nations throughout the world braced for a surge of infections and, ultimately, deaths.
For the Fusco family in Freehold, N.J., the dangers of the virus and its pernicious exploitation of human connection were laid bare when Grace Fusco, 73, died Wednesday night, hours after her son and five days after her daughter. Four other family members are hospitalized, three of them in critical condition, from an infection traced to a routine family gathering.
No one is safe.
Two members of Congress tested positive and were in isolation on Thursday. While older people remain at gravest risk worldwide, a C.D.C. report found that 38 percent of those who required hospitalization in the U.S. were aged 20 to 54.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, warned that as testing becomes more widespread, people would see the numbers soar.
President Trump signed a relief package to provide sick leave, unemployment benefits and free coronavirus testing, and lawmakers were drafting an even more sweeping $1 trillion economic stabilization package. But even as the federal government invoked wartime powers to speed the production of essential medical equipment, such as surgical masks, protective body suits, testing kits and, especially, ventilators remained in short supply.
World leaders escalated pleas to the only ones who can ultimately help buy time: everyone.
“It’s down to each and every one of us,” Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said in a televised address. “We are not doomed to helplessly watch the spread of the virus. We have a means to fight it: we must practice social distancing.” Failure to do so could result in even more stringent lockdowns that Germany has so far avoided, she said. “We are a democracy. We don’t live by force, but by shared knowledge and cooperation.”
In California, more than nine million people have been told not to leave their homes. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York resisted taking such a drastic step, even as he ordered businesses to compel employees to work from home.
.....
Gautam

varshar · Post by **varshar** » 19 Mar 2020 17:17

Here's a positive update from the FT:

* Growth in cases (daily) is slowing in Italy, South Korea, & Japan. Iranian numbers don't seem trustworthy though.
* UK is consistently below the 33% trendline (and diverging slowly) - so BoJo might just be doing something right.
* Trajectory of cases in France & Sweden too seems to be slowing.

On the flip side, USA continues to be a major source of concern.

-v

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 19 Mar 2020 17:19

Karan M wrote:US will just open the tap to flood pockets with $$.

Was Done in 2008, for 2+ years. Printed 2+ trillion dollars in 'quantitative easing'. Why no inflation followed is a mystery. This OT but willing to continue in appropriate thread- and if so please flag this post.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 19 Mar 2020 17:28

varshar wrote:Here's a positive update from the FT:

* Growth in cases (daily) is slowing in Italy, South Korea, & Japan. Iranian numbers don't seem trustworthy though.
* UK is consistently below the 33% trendline (and diverging slowly) - so BoJo might just be doing something right.
* Trajectory of cases in France & Sweden too seems to be slowing.
On the flip side, USA continues to be a major source of concern.

-v

Sirji
This is going to explode in UK.
Individual medical society are issuing guidelines which the NHS executive is ignoring!!
Some trust are filled with arseholes in the middle and top amangement!
For example in the trust I work, the Endoscopy in-charge has gone off on self isolation for 14 days

The medical director bozo doesn't do endoscopy and yet between the two on them they decided that we should continue doing routine diagnostic endoscopy

The BSG guidelines says Upper GI endoscopy is a high risk procedure for aerosol exposure

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 19 Mar 2020 17:58

India - 21 new cases, 1 death

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 19 Mar 2020 18:24

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 702548.cms
Things seems to be heating up in Napak!!
Hope India has ordered a land crossing lockdown and stop any unwashed Abdul making an entry!!

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 19 Mar 2020 18:33

Key Advice FROM BSG(BRITISH SOCIETY OF GASTEROENTEROLOGIST)
In the absence of any specific instructions relating to gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures from the Government and the Devolved Administrations, and following the general strategic intent expressed by the UK Government to reduce any non-essential exposure to the COVID-19 virus and to take all reasonable measures to limit its spread, the BSG now recommends that all elective and non-essential endoscopic procedures should stop, as soon as possible.

chola · Post by **chola** » 19 Mar 2020 19:04

An American who've gone through 8 weeks of isolation in Cheen. Some perspective and tips.

https://www.livescience.com/surviving-w ... china.html

Q&A: Expat quarantined in China shares how to survive 8 weeks of isolation

By Stephanie Pappas - Live Science Contributor 2 hours ago

Normal life is tentatively resuming in China as the U.S. faces weeks of social distancing.

....

Karen Orteza, a U.S. citizen and a kindergarten teacher at an international school in Nanjing, China — about 285 miles (460 kilometers) northeast of Wuhan — decided not to evacuate the country when news of the virus broke. Since about Jan. 25, she and her husband have been practicing social distancing and staying at home. The city put into place strict measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus, including requiring temperature checks before people can enter buildings, shutting down dine-in service at restaurants and mandating that people must wear masks to enter any building. Individuals wishing to use public transportation were required to scan a QR code on their phones linked to an identification number proving that they had not left Nanjing in the past 14 days. People needed to use similar verifications to move in and out of residential compounds. Travelers entering and leaving the city had to have their temperatures taken, and anyone in contact with someone who had a fever was placed in 14-day quarantine at a hotel.

...

Live Science: When did you go on lockdown, and what did that look like in Nanjing?

Orteza: School finished on Friday, Jan. 23, for the Chinese New Year holiday. The students were due to have two weeks' holiday and the teachers one week of holiday and one week of professional development. At that point, we knew that the virus existed but didn't know the extent and were not really concerned about how it might affect Nanjing. Many people left Nanjing as scheduled to go on holiday, but my husband and I stayed. By Sunday, news was already surfacing that the virus was spreading quickly. People were advised to stay at home as much as possible. The USA had set travel advisories and was evacuating citizens from Wuhan. The U.S. advised citizens in other parts of China to leave as well. Churches, shopping malls, the wet market, small vendors and most restaurants closed immediately.

For approximately the next two weeks, vegetables sold out of stores quickly but were replenished daily. There was never any visible panic buying — at least not in Nanjing. Some imported items were harder to come by due to delivery systems shutting down, but local products were in full supply. The only things that were difficult to find were surgical masks and hand sanitizer, as they were being sent to hospitals and to Wuhan and Hubei Province. Almost everything remained closed, other than main grocery stores and some fruit shops, up until the end of February. In early March, some restaurants began to reopen but only for takeout. Most people already use some form of cashless payment, such as Alipay or WeChat pay, so ordering from restaurants or grocery stores was simple. Motorcycle delivery people worked tirelessly the whole time delivering groceries to compounds.
...

Live Science: What was the hardest part about this for you?

Orteza: The hardest part for me has been the isolation. Fortunately, I have my husband, so I am not completely alone! Although some of my friends were still here, nobody ventured outside their homes unless it was necessary. I really missed ... having those quick chats at school with my colleagues or interacting with my students or taking walks around the neighborhood. When we go to the store, it seems to be that everyone just wants to get their business done and get out of there. It has only been the last week or two that more people are out on the street. When this situation first started, the streets were empty and we might only pass two or three people in a 45-minute walk — and that is in a city of 8.5 million! But on the upside, I found myself smiling beneath my mask at everyone that I did pass on the street. And I received a lot of smiles (I think … I really couldn't see them under the masks) and head nods from strangers that I passed on the street as well. It seems that everyone feels a bit more united now.
...

Live Science: How did you handle work, entertainment and general sanity during this time?

Orteza: It has been an up-and-down thing for me being stuck inside for so long. We have always been able to get out, but for the first few weeks, we tried to only go out once a week to buy food. Being a kindergarten teacher, I am used to moving a lot every day! Our first week or so, I viewed it as a holiday and slept in, watched movies, read and relaxed. Then, as time went on, I realized that I needed to have a schedule and routine or else I would go crazy. Online teaching for us began on Feb 10. Through WeChat, email and other online platforms, I was able to do planning with my colleagues. As each week passes, we have been able to refine what we are offering to our students. There have been plenty of hiccups, but we are figuring it out.
...

Live Science: What are your tips for Americans who are facing the beginning of a period of social distancing?

Orteza: My biggest tip is to keep it in perspective. Don't focus on the media hype. Get the facts and then sit back and relax. Remember to be kind to others who might be facing greater uncertainties.

...

Orteza shared a list of tips for making it through isolation with mental and physical health intact:

Keep to a schedule.
Eat well.
Get enough sleep and try to sleep at your regular time.
Exercise.
Use the time to do something that you never seem to have the time to do — learn a new language, write letters, read, take up an instrument, do virtual tours, take a free course offered by universities.
Do something for someone else (send drawings or letters to a nursing home, make items for homeless shelters, call or write to family members that you don't see or talk to often).
Connect with someone each day, even if it is to smile at someone across the street or write a short message to someone.
Don't spend a lot of time on social media or watching the news.
Get outside if you can. When the virus first surfaced in Nanjing, it was winter with dark and dreary days. The lack of sunshine was evident in my mood. Now that the sun is shining, I am sitting on my balcony most days, and it is wonderful!
Stay positive. Look at the big picture. For many of us, this is not threatening. It is inconvenient and may be a slight hardship, but there are many people around the world who are far worse off. Find the silver lining.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Mar 2020 19:23

Karan M wrote:^^ Deans Above will be too authoritarian. Asking companies to sack individuals etc. Best thing is to put huge fines and file cases.

I know it is authoritarian, but this is a national emergency. Companies will comply if they are named and shamed (e.g. Company XYZ shielding employee who deliberately exposed others to Corona...).

Shameek · Post by **Shameek** » 19 Mar 2020 19:55

As in most other cases, unfortunately money talks. Huge on the spot public fines are one of the best ways to deter any behavior. It would help if we could deny further medical assistance to anyone that 'escapes' a quarantine but that will surely not fly.

syam · Post by **syam** » 19 Mar 2020 20:11

#BREAKING

DCP Central Delhi confirms to colleague @Nitisha_Kashyap
that
SIX people suspected of #COVID19 have fled from Delhi's LNJP hospital.

This kind of behaviour is alarming to say the least

#CoronaVirusInIndia

What the hell wrong with these folks? Do they think they will die if they stay put in one place? We should have done yearly drills to prepare for situations like this. dangerous amount of people pulling their own stunts like this, putting everything at risk.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Mar 2020 20:14

syam wrote:
#BREAKING

DCP Central Delhi confirms to colleague @Nitisha_Kashyap
that
SIX people suspected of #COVID19 have fled from Delhi's LNJP hospital.

This kind of behaviour is alarming to say the least

#CoronaVirusInIndia
What the hell wrong with these folks? Do they think they will die if they stay put in one place? We should have done yearly drills to prepare for situations like this. dangerous amount of people pulling their own stunts like this, putting everything at risk.

And I suppose if their posters are put up, SC will force govt to take them down. Stamp their hand with indelible ink or hold their passports and the usual suspects will talk about `Fascist govt', denial of civil liberties etc.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Mar 2020 20:28

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Mar 2020 20:43

https://www.narendramodi.in/watch-live#

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Mar 2020 21:07

A lot of posters have regularly posted instances of patients breaking quarantine, and conversely 'civil liberty' types not wanting a heavy brush over a large population. Please stop wasting energy bemoaning that.

Fine. Let's consider creative approaches where people don't have to walk around with branding. Example:
* All tourists with symptoms have passports red-cornered with immigration when checking in at hospital. They're told they cannot leave the country without a hospital certificate or some other proper documentation from THEIR embassy (because they might go home and make things worse there, so it's in everyone's interest).
* All residents must submit Aadhaar information. What existing benefits or other facilities can be managed and curtailed without physically branding people, but identifying them easily ?

This is a question of identification of individuals.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 19 Mar 2020 21:15

Are we self disciplined enough to follow the Janata Curfew as proposed by Modi on Sunday, 22nd March 2020, from 7 AM to 10 PM. It is Voluntary only.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 19 Mar 2020 21:30

Great speech by PM. No chest thumping as to what the govt has done and a very sincere and genuine message. I watched some Tamil news channels and surprisingly they are positive about this. Some shrills were still asking why govt didn't do this or that but mostly it was much more mature reaction and encouraging the public to make it a success.

Wonder how it was received on mallustan?

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 19 Mar 2020 21:35

I'm amused as to how ICMR can make such a blanket statement that there is no community transmission based on random testing. I dare say thousands are already asymptomatic carriers, and the weather argument can go to the bin. We currently are at the bottom of the slab in terms of testing capacity per million.

syam · Post by **syam** » 19 Mar 2020 21:36

Mod Note:
Deleted. Please stop running around like a headless chicken here. This is a resource thread. The hysteria thread is outside BRF.

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Mar 2020 21:44

mmasand wrote:I'm amused as to how ICMR can make such a blanket statement that there is no community transmission based on random testing. I dare say thousands are already asymptomatic carriers, and the weather argument can go to the bin. We currently are at the bottom of the slab in terms of testing capacity per million.

ICMR has taken samples of patients reporting respiratory issues, to see if they positive. They are not taking random samples from the population.

It is a logic way of doing it, becoz if there is a community spread, it will result in explosion of respiratory patients.

As I expected, they are monitoring respiratory outbreak, to see if there is a spread in any specific region. And they will do it regularly.

It is not possible to do mass testing with a 1.3 billion people. You cannot test only once, it will be a regular process. I also read that they are planning to get samples from each district.

India might be a poor country, but we have a good record manage epidemic. I would also like to see more testing, hope they are planning for more. And it is targeted towards specific region which seems to reporting cases.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Mar 2020 21:47

I got this from relatives, but don't know how accurate this is:

Jaipur doctors in conjunction with ICMR successfully treated Italians quarantined in India with the following:

1. Tablet Lopinavir QID
2. Tablet Retrovir QID
3. Tablet Oslettamivir QID
4. Tablet Chloroquine QID
5. Tablet Cefpodoxime QID
6. Tablet Cetirizine QID
7. Tablet Vitamine C 1000mg

GoI is telling hospitals to maintain these drugs in stock and give to patients early on.

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 19 Mar 2020 21:59

Sweden, with a massively smaller population than India, and also renowned for its excellent health care system, only examined/treated people with more obvious or severe symptoms. Not those showing milder ones. One doesn't see any criticism in the Western media for that. China's mouthpiece paper did attack Sweden though.

FWIW:

https://mothership.sg/2020/03/china-glo ... -covid-19/

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Mar 2020 22:19

I am seeing some claims on twitter about test at home kit. If it is made available, then it will probably be the most useful way of curbing this virus.

It can also be given to public places.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 19 Mar 2020 22:35

Even the most "woke" of my Hindu acquaintances are praising this move. Hope its a resounding success.

saip · Post by **saip** » 19 Mar 2020 22:48

Trump says a drug currently used as an antimalarial would be made available almost immediately

CNN

saip · Post by **saip** » 19 Mar 2020 22:50

Everlywell, a home testing company that offers dozens of lab tests to consumers, is adding a COVID-19 test beginning on March 23.

Time
Time

Sorry, I jumped the gun. After reading the article it appears they will be sending a special SWAB and instructions to take the sample which you then send to them. They will then send it one of their labs and get you the results and if positive will pay for consultation with a physician. Not exactly the test I was hoping for.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Mar 2020 23:04

sajo wrote:Even the most "woke" of my Hindu acquaintances are praising this move. Hope its a resounding success.

Generally people are being responsible.

Looks like several medicines are working now. Hopefully we bring it down before the virus before it mutates to more lethal form

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 19 Mar 2020 23:07

Guys, please no racist taunts.

We are comparing India (large land mass with large population) with other countries (small land mass and correspondingly lower population) in terms of the measures taken. As Nam ji posted earlier, we cannot test such a large population using other country's criteria. Recall that we have a very experienced Administrator at the helm. We have to find our own solution.

In matters of flood, famine, drought and other natural disasters, we have much more experience than most countries.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Mar 2020 23:29

on social media, folks have started referring to the chinese coronavirus as the “Kung-Flu”

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 19 Mar 2020 23:31

Mod Note

Deleted. DO NOT posts random WhatsApp / FB / your choice social media spam here.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Mar 2020 23:37

on a lighter note

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 19 Mar 2020 23:48

saip wrote:
Trump says a drug currently used as an antimalarial would be made available almost immediately
CNN

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9 ... HnGbj/view

French peer Review Journal claims 100% cure using quinine & antibiotics . It seems that Trump statement is based on this study.

EXTRAORDINARY

It's also possible that Chinese epidemic died off due to this treatment only. ( My guess)

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 19 Mar 2020 23:58

Indiam Economy "remarkanly unscathed" amid Global Coronavirus surge : Chinese Media

Cheers