Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 20 Mar 2020 20:44

hanumadu wrote:How long before we have a virus with the fatality of SARS-COV-1 and the contagiousness of SARS-COV-2?

Usually, the more deadly a virus or bacteria is, the more the pressures of natural selection and evolution against it! Most viruses are much more potent when they first emerge, pressures of natural selection ensure that they become less of a threat with time. Its not in the viruses self interest (if a virus can have a self interest!) to kill the host! This can be seen in all viruses throughout history. Even HIV used to be much more deadly early on but now the virus is not as deadly.

saip · Post by **saip** » 20 Mar 2020 21:03

CA has shelter in place order for the entire state. Some can stay home, some can stay home and work and there are others who can not stay at home and work, especially health care workers and emergency services. For all those who are still going to work so that we can be safe, my gratitude.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 20 Mar 2020 21:13

COVID19 viability on surfaces : Copper has the highest disinfecting capability (Paper compares Copper, Steel, Cardboard and Plastic)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2 ... 094CWbpOuk

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 20 Mar 2020 21:16

TN has quarantined itself.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Mar 2020 21:22

This has to happen ... GOI should encourage folks to report such cases.

https://twitter.com/nitinch85/status/12 ... 2087611392

Nitin Chaudhary @nitinch85

@myogiadityanath @noidapolice @Ravish_49619 @uppolice

Sir one resident of T2/1202, Paras Tierea, Sector 137, Noida came from UK yesterday and not adhering to self quarantine, roaming freely and creating health threat to more than 4000 flats in society. Pls take immediate action.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 20 Mar 2020 21:26

Folks, don't go overboard with the "WTH/WTF" posts please. PM has called for self-quarantining on March 22. If you listened to his speech carefully, it was clear he is testing this persuasive approach to see if it is working. If yes, there will be followups along those lines. If not, other measures will be taken. I agree it is a good idea to call out/name and shame people who are showing irresponsible behavior.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 20 Mar 2020 21:29

ICMR may cap price of each coronavirus test at Rs 4,500-Rs 5,000 for private labs: Official

The Union health ministry had on Tuesday issued guidelines for private sector laboratories intending to initiate COVID-19 testing while the ICMR appealed to them to conduct the tests free of cost. "It seems nobody is willing to do it free-of-cost and that is why private labs would be asked to cap the price of each test for COVID-19 between Rs 4500 and Rs 5,000," the official said.

Feel like 5000 INR is still expensive...

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 20 Mar 2020 21:33

Zynda wrote:ICMR may cap price of each coronavirus test at Rs 4,500-Rs 5,000 for private labs: Official

The Union health ministry had on Tuesday issued guidelines for private sector laboratories intending to initiate COVID-19 testing while the ICMR appealed to them to conduct the tests free of cost. "It seems nobody is willing to do it free-of-cost and that is why private labs would be asked to cap the price of each test for COVID-19 between Rs 4500 and Rs 5,000," the official said.
Feel like 5000 INR is still expensive...

From what I understand, the reagents are still imported and expensive, hence there may be a limit to how much cost can be cut, till local alternatives are available. But yes, govt can subsidize, but within reason.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Mar 2020 21:40

https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 7281811456

Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

Back from Bangladesh, 160 refuse quarantine in Srinagar. Start protest, break window panes in arrival area. Subsequently, their parents arrive and join protest

https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 9619196933

Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

COVID-19: Two Catholic priests booked in Kerala for violating orders by conducting mass. If convicted, face 6-month jail term

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1240918414345949184

ANI @ANI

Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray: In Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nagpur - which have international airports, all shops (other than essentials) and offices to remain closed till 31st March, 2020. #COVID19 (file pic)

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Mar 2020 21:54

The fatality rate in SoKo, which has done the most extensive testing is 1.1%
In Northern Europe, (Germany, Austria, Scandanavia) which also tests aggressively, the fatality rate is 0.3-0.5% A larger proportion of younger
people are infected there.

Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

All warm countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil, Gulf countries) have fatality rates under 0.5%. Only exception is Indonesia.
Same with cold countries (Russia, Scandanavia, Estonia). Canada at 1.5% is the only exception.

The high fatality rates are very high in Italy, Spain & UK because of a larger proportion of older people and because (in Italy), everyone who dies is being checked for the presence of Coronivirus and is being listed as a virus case, even if he died of a heard attack and was not admitted for Corona.

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 20 Mar 2020 21:59

Deans wrote: Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

Iran has a CFR of 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Mar 2020 22:09

Krita wrote:
Deans wrote: Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.
Iran has a CFR of 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran

My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 20 Mar 2020 22:30

Deans wrote:The fatality rate in SoKo, which has done the most extensive testing is 1.1%
In Northern Europe, (Germany, Austria, Scandanavia) which also tests aggressively, the fatality rate is 0.3-0.5% A larger proportion of younger
people are infected there.

Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

All warm countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil, Gulf countries) have fatality rates under 0.5%. Only exception is Indonesia.
Same with cold countries (Russia, Scandanavia, Estonia). Canada at 1.5% is the only exception.

The high fatality rates are very high in Italy, Spain & UK because of a larger proportion of older people and because (in Italy), everyone who dies is being checked for the presence of Coronivirus and is being listed as a virus case, even if he died of a heard attack and was not admitted for Corona.

Again, this cold weather warm weather thing is conjecture with no science at this point.

Also, you can get a heart attack due to Corona induced respiratory stress if you are old and generally not 100% in cardiovascular health.

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 20 Mar 2020 22:31

Deans wrote:
Krita wrote: Iran has a CFR of 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran
My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%

Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 20 Mar 2020 22:31

Bart S wrote:And who would have thought that it would be the educated ultra-elite folks who spread the virus as opposed to the much maligned unhygenic gawaar folks.

I think going forward every minute is critical. State of emergency needs to happen now, rather than half-measures and 'encouraging' people do stuff.

Sadly, the writing has been on the wall for some time as to the true nature of these 'civilized' 'elite' Indians, present company excepted of course.

Excuse the off-topic, but here's a small anecdote to illustrate the nature of this quarantine-breaking class.

Many-many years ago, I once had occasion to confront a gentleman at Chennai Airport--we had both landed on the same flight from Singapore. And said gent lighted up a cigarette in the airport customs queue, with nothing being said by the security staff (those were the days). I asked him if he would have done the same thing in Changi, and he went into a long tirade about how he was well-traveled and what a dirty place India was, what an undisciplined people Indians were, and on and on. Yes, that was his response.

I took my lessons right then and there about which class of people is India's real problem. I have seen no reason since then to change my conclusions.

khan · Post by **khan** » 20 Mar 2020 22:46

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/NewIndianXpress/sta ... 2810866690
The New Indian Express @NewIndianXpress

#CoronaVirusUpdate | 22-year-old doctor from #Maharashtra's Jalgaon knocked the doors of at least five private hospitals, but he was refused admission being a #coronavirus suspect. Now, he is in a ventilator, battling for his life.
@ss_suryawanshi
Lesson

1. ~~Everyone is vulnerable~~ Dog bite case (Rabies ???)
2. When in doubt, approach a government facility that is listed by the respective state government. Don't waste time with private hospitals.

Be aware and spread the message.

IMO, the real lesson is, private hospitals should be required to take care of anyone who knocks on their doors - if they have the room.

The people who turned away this gentlemen should be locked up for manslaughter if he dies and attempted manslaughter- if he doesn’t.

Of all places, a hospital should be aware of the hazards of sending a coronavirus patient out into the community.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 20 Mar 2020 22:48

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 7281811456
Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

Back from Bangladesh, 160 refuse quarantine in Srinagar. Start protest, break window panes in arrival area. Subsequently, their parents arrive and join protest
https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 9619196933
Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

COVID-19: Two Catholic priests booked in Kerala for violating orders by conducting mass. If convicted, face 6-month jail term
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1240918414345949184
ANI @ANI

Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray: In Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nagpur - which have international airports, all shops (other than essentials) and offices to remain closed till 31st March, 2020. #COVID19 (file pic)

Why such big groups from JK going to Bangladesh?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Mar 2020 22:57

A google search indicates India has 70,000 ICU beds. Assuming 2/3rd of them have ventilators, we have 50,000 ventilators for 1.3 billion people.
some others
UK 4500
Germany 20,000
Italy 3500
USA 135000 (they ventilated these many patients during last pandemic)

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Mar 2020 23:09

Several articles have appeared as to how one ventilator can be used to ventilate multiple patients https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/split-ventilators/

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 20 Mar 2020 23:20

I think we dont have so many ventilators. Somewheres reading Delhi has only 500, which would mean around 5,000 or so, all over India.

nam · Post by **nam** » 20 Mar 2020 23:40

Italy's grim tale continues. 627 deaths today. Now on, I think it is only Math.

I hope our politicians are taking it seriously.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 20 Mar 2020 23:45

Raveen wrote:
Deans wrote:
My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%
Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.

1. It is a flu virus. Flu virus hits the worst during cold weather, and change of season (into cold or wet weather).
2. There was a paper written by some Tsinghua guys about the correlation of rate of spread and temperature & humidity, where they claimed that hot weather and high humidity were inhibitors. This looked like a decent paper but my beef with it was that it was written by CS types not public health persons. A quick search shows up some articles, e.g. https://www.businessinsider.in/science/ ... 697538.cms
3. Iran is cold this time of the year. There are mountains right by Teheran where it snows. Same with Italy. Italian alps, remember?
4. Cases from Dubai, SIngapore I will attribute to being in close confinement in an airconditioned recirculating environment. "warm weather" only applies to the outside, not when you are in airconditioning. Also it is an inhibitor not a blocker of transmission. So please continue to exercise the utmost of caution.

My doctor stated that there was zero correlation that any types of food induced acidity, and this had been studied in depth. I can with equal certainty say that certain foods (aerated drinks for instance) will 100% give me acidity that very night. It is like clockwork for me. So while a statistic may apply to the population at large, each individual's response may show something entirely different.

So far there has been minimal transmission in the wild in India. Let's hope it stays that way, but be prepared for the worst.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 20 Mar 2020 23:51

kit wrote: Forewarned is forearmed, India needs stricter measures maybe even enact an emergency if required before it is too late ., people cannot be running around or escape at will if tested positive !!

Unfortunately this might be needed sooner than you think. The number of cases has reached 200. If you compare the time taken for cases to reach from 0 to 100 and from 100 to 200 there is a significant drop. Which means the spread is accelerating and we might be on the exponential growth curve.

Draconian measures need to be put in place to stop people from congregating together. Time for asking nicely is over. Govt. can start with their own partymen, like the idiots in MP. Educated people seem to be no better than illiterate ones here (and might be worse) as Kanika Kapoor's example as shown. If we don't stop this now it will be a disaster.

Secondly, it might have been a good idea to test only symptomatic people or those who have had contact with infected people till now, but there have been so many instances of COVID-19 positive people mingling with general population till now that there is no way to figure out how many people might actually be walking around infected. Testing protocols might need to change.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 20 Mar 2020 23:54

yensoy wrote:
1. It is a flu virus. Flu virus hits the worst during cold weather, and change of season (into cold or wet weather).

It is not a Flu virus. Coronaviruses belong to a different family of viruses than Influenza viruses.

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Mar 2020 00:05

Gyan wrote:I think we dont have so many ventilators. Somewheres reading Delhi has only 500, which would mean around 5,000 or so, all over India.

DRDO and IITs should come up with a plan to design, develop and manufacture a ventilator by the millions in 3 weeks. It is doable. At the very basic, it is a clean air pump to aid human respiration.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 21 Mar 2020 00:10

disha wrote:
Gyan wrote:I think we dont have so many ventilators. Somewheres reading Delhi has only 500, which would mean around 5,000 or so, all over India.
DRDO and IITs should come up with a plan to design, develop and manufacture a ventilator by the millions in 3 weeks. It is doable. At the very basic, it is a clean air pump to aid human respiration.

Even if they designed one how would you set up large scale manufacturing facilities in days or weeks? This will be a classic case of starting to dig a well after one is thirsty unfortunately.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 21 Mar 2020 00:10

Coronavirus is spreading in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, and Australia - and all these countries have either hot weather or are in summer months (e.g. Australia).

If we don't act, rest assured 1 crore Indians will die. And many amongst us are running like headless chickens giving the virus to others like soan halwa. One man is jumping quarantine in Telengana to attend his wedding with 1000 guests.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 21 Mar 2020 00:12

my friends from sweden and netherlands are reporting that they are under complete house arrest, with only bi-weekly visits for buying basic items allowed. also,sweden is very ikely fudging numbers.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Mar 2020 00:23

sohamn wrote:Coronavirus is spreading in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, and Australia - and all these countries have either hot weather or are in summer months (e.g. Australia).

If we don't act, rest assured 1 crore Indians will die. And many amongst us are running like headless chickens giving the virus to others like soan halwa. One man is jumping quarantine in Telengana to attend his wedding with 1000 guests.

I think you need to calm down. GoI is doing what it can, but can't stop individuals. 1 crore is 10 million Indians. If you wish this, then go somewhere else.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Mar 2020 00:24

Mod Note:

Another friendly reminder - this is the resource thread. Not the place to navel gaze or make up CTs. There won't be another thread for that because we have neither the time nor inclination to moderate such a thread.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 21 Mar 2020 00:25

Rahul M wrote:also,sweden is very ikely fudging numbers.

Why should anyone fudge numbers. May be taking precaution to control. More over even in spain things of ban is not too strict. I heard one can go for a walk in evening. Only malls theater are closed. Most on WFH

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 21 Mar 2020 00:29

you have to ask the ones doing the fudging. from what I got, only critical cases are being reported, not all cases.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 21 Mar 2020 00:31

Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 21 Mar 2020 00:34

yensoy wrote:
Raveen wrote:
Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.
1. It is a flu virus. Flu virus hits the worst during cold weather, and change of season (into cold or wet weather).
2. There was a paper written by some Tsinghua guys about the correlation of rate of spread and temperature & humidity, where they claimed that hot weather and high humidity were inhibitors. This looked like a decent paper but my beef with it was that it was written by CS types not public health persons. A quick search shows up some articles, e.g. https://www.businessinsider.in/science/ ... 697538.cms
3. Iran is cold this time of the year. There are mountains right by Teheran where it snows. Same with Italy. Italian alps, remember?
4. Cases from Dubai, SIngapore I will attribute to being in close confinement in an airconditioned recirculating environment. "warm weather" only applies to the outside, not when you are in airconditioning. Also it is an inhibitor not a blocker of transmission. So please continue to exercise the utmost of caution.

My doctor stated that there was zero correlation that any types of food induced acidity, and this had been studied in depth. I can with equal certainty say that certain foods (aerated drinks for instance) will 100% give me acidity that very night. It is like clockwork for me. So while a statistic may apply to the population at large, each individual's response may show something entirely different.

So far there has been minimal transmission in the wild in India. Let's hope it stays that way, but be prepared for the worst.

Its not the flu, get your basics right
Also, I meant scientific paper, not some random business insider article.

Brazil, New Zealand, Australia are warm right now, they still have cases.

Also, if the individual is human, then they will have human physiological reactions which are well understood, physcological reactions are individual and can create the sense of acidity or anything else you like.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 21 Mar 2020 00:37

sudeepj wrote:
hanumadu wrote:How long before we have a virus with the fatality of SARS-COV-1 and the contagiousness of SARS-COV-2?
Usually, the more deadly a virus or bacteria is, the more the pressures of natural selection and evolution against it! Most viruses are much more potent when they first emerge, pressures of natural selection ensure that they become less of a threat with time. Its not in the viruses self interest (if a virus can have a self interest!) to kill the host! This can be seen in all viruses throughout history. Even HIV used to be much more deadly early on but now the virus is not as deadly.

Please digest the posts that raise new information before comment. HIV is now a chronic infection not because of attenuation of the virus but because patients are on life long antiretroviral drugs.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 21 Mar 2020 00:42

Gerard wrote:The more fatal a virus is, the less chance to spread. The most successful viruses are found embedded in human DNA, in every cell, passed down in all humans. Their dna is inactivated and does nothing.

Please digest posts before commenting. Not all viruses are retroviruses. And their DNA is not really viral DNA anymore. Thus they are not really evolutionarily successful. Further the human genome seems to make extensive use of regulatory sequences that derive from retroviruses. These viruses and humans seem to have been coevolving. They also seem to provide transposon elements that again drive gene flow.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Mar 2020 00:45

vera_k wrote:Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health

Didn't read the article because it requires subscription however I don't agree with the statement, at all. Coming from the WSJ though it's hardly surprising.

Actually it is quite the opposite. That's why we see the economic chaos during covid19.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Mar 2020 00:49

Rahul M wrote:my friends from sweden and netherlands are reporting that they are under complete house arrest, with only bi-weekly visits for buying basic items allowed. also,sweden is very ikely fudging numbers.

I would not be surprised about this, at all.... Although I'm not sure it's deliberate. There are probly many more carrying it than those identified. I had posted an article and video about this, and unless I misunderstood, conservatively, there are 8x more infected than those reported at any given moment.

sampat · Post by **sampat** » 21 Mar 2020 00:59

In Finland official identified cases are 450 but government has said real number is 20 or 30 times more. In Finland they are not testing everyone only those who ended up in hospitals or medical staff returning from foreign trips.
All schools and colleges are closed. Day cares are open and so are restaurants and super-markets but people are not going to restaurants. Government has advised people to visit hospitals only in urgent or emergency situation. All non-urgent appointments and surgeries are postponed.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 21 Mar 2020 00:59

Italy reports 5,986 new cases of coronavirus and 627 new deaths, raising total to 47,021 cases and 4,032 dead.

France reports 1,617 new cases of coronavirus and 78 new deaths, raising total to 12,612 cases and 450 dead.

UK reports 714 new cases of coronavirus and 33 new deaths, raising total to 3,983 cases and 177 dead.

Pakistan gets USD 588 million from World Bank and ADB.