Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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pankajs
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 20 Mar 2020 20:22

https://twitter.com/NewIndianXpress/sta ... 2810866690
The New Indian Express @NewIndianXpress

#CoronaVirusUpdate | 22-year-old doctor from #Maharashtra's Jalgaon knocked the doors of at least five private hospitals, but he was refused admission being a #coronavirus suspect. Now, he is in a ventilator, battling for his life.
@ss_suryawanshi

Lesson

1. Everyone is vulnerable Dog bite case (Rabies ???)
2. When in doubt, approach a government facility that is listed by the respective state government. Don't waste time with private hospitals.

Be aware and spread the message.

nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 20 Mar 2020 20:34

It is now 241, looks like start of community spread... We are testing high risk groups and it is growing.

Need to lockdown now, atleast for two weeks.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 20 Mar 2020 20:44

hanumadu wrote:How long before we have a virus with the fatality of SARS-COV-1 and the contagiousness of SARS-COV-2?


Usually, the more deadly a virus or bacteria is, the more the pressures of natural selection and evolution against it! Most viruses are much more potent when they first emerge, pressures of natural selection ensure that they become less of a threat with time. Its not in the viruses self interest (if a virus can have a self interest!) to kill the host! This can be seen in all viruses throughout history. Even HIV used to be much more deadly early on but now the virus is not as deadly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 20 Mar 2020 21:03

CA has shelter in place order for the entire state. Some can stay home, some can stay home and work and there are others who can not stay at home and work, especially health care workers and emergency services. For all those who are still going to work so that we can be safe, my gratitude.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 20 Mar 2020 21:13

COVID19 viability on surfaces : Copper has the highest disinfecting capability (Paper compares Copper, Steel, Cardboard and Plastic)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2 ... 094CWbpOuk

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 20 Mar 2020 21:16

TN has quarantined itself.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 20 Mar 2020 21:22

This has to happen ... GOI should encourage folks to report such cases.

https://twitter.com/nitinch85/status/12 ... 2087611392
Nitin Chaudhary @nitinch85

@myogiadityanath @noidapolice @Ravish_49619 @uppolice

Sir one resident of T2/1202, Paras Tierea, Sector 137, Noida came from UK yesterday and not adhering to self quarantine, roaming freely and creating health threat to more than 4000 flats in society. Pls take immediate action.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 20 Mar 2020 21:26

Folks, don't go overboard with the "WTH/WTF" posts please. PM has called for self-quarantining on March 22. If you listened to his speech carefully, it was clear he is testing this persuasive approach to see if it is working. If yes, there will be followups along those lines. If not, other measures will be taken. I agree it is a good idea to call out/name and shame people who are showing irresponsible behavior.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 20 Mar 2020 21:29

ICMR may cap price of each coronavirus test at Rs 4,500-Rs 5,000 for private labs: Official

The Union health ministry had on Tuesday issued guidelines for private sector laboratories intending to initiate COVID-19 testing while the ICMR appealed to them to conduct the tests free of cost. "It seems nobody is willing to do it free-of-cost and that is why private labs would be asked to cap the price of each test for COVID-19 between Rs 4500 and Rs 5,000," the official said.

Feel like 5000 INR is still expensive...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 20 Mar 2020 21:33

Zynda wrote:ICMR may cap price of each coronavirus test at Rs 4,500-Rs 5,000 for private labs: Official

The Union health ministry had on Tuesday issued guidelines for private sector laboratories intending to initiate COVID-19 testing while the ICMR appealed to them to conduct the tests free of cost. "It seems nobody is willing to do it free-of-cost and that is why private labs would be asked to cap the price of each test for COVID-19 between Rs 4500 and Rs 5,000," the official said.

Feel like 5000 INR is still expensive...


From what I understand, the reagents are still imported and expensive, hence there may be a limit to how much cost can be cut, till local alternatives are available. But yes, govt can subsidize, but within reason.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 20 Mar 2020 21:40

https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 7281811456
Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

Back from Bangladesh, 160 refuse quarantine in Srinagar. Start protest, break window panes in arrival area. Subsequently, their parents arrive and join protest

https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 9619196933
Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

COVID-19: Two Catholic priests booked in Kerala for violating orders by conducting mass. If convicted, face 6-month jail term

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1240918414345949184
ANI @ANI

Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray: In Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nagpur - which have international airports, all shops (other than essentials) and offices to remain closed till 31st March, 2020. #COVID19 (file pic)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 20 Mar 2020 21:54

The fatality rate in SoKo, which has done the most extensive testing is 1.1%
In Northern Europe, (Germany, Austria, Scandanavia) which also tests aggressively, the fatality rate is 0.3-0.5% A larger proportion of younger
people are infected there.

Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

All warm countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil, Gulf countries) have fatality rates under 0.5%. Only exception is Indonesia.
Same with cold countries (Russia, Scandanavia, Estonia). Canada at 1.5% is the only exception.

The high fatality rates are very high in Italy, Spain & UK because of a larger proportion of older people and because (in Italy), everyone who dies is being checked for the presence of Coronivirus and is being listed as a virus case, even if he died of a heard attack and was not admitted for Corona.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 20 Mar 2020 21:59

Deans wrote:Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

Iran has a CFR of 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran

Deans
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 20 Mar 2020 22:09

Krita wrote:
Deans wrote:Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

Iran has a CFR of 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran


My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raveen » 20 Mar 2020 22:30

Deans wrote:The fatality rate in SoKo, which has done the most extensive testing is 1.1%
In Northern Europe, (Germany, Austria, Scandanavia) which also tests aggressively, the fatality rate is 0.3-0.5% A larger proportion of younger
people are infected there.

Iran with fairly non existent testing (unless you have an advanced condition) and poor medical care has a fatality rate of under 1% (I doubt they are under-reporting because they need aid and an end to sanctions).
US currently at 1.5% but I expect will go down once more are tested.

All warm countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil, Gulf countries) have fatality rates under 0.5%. Only exception is Indonesia.
Same with cold countries (Russia, Scandanavia, Estonia). Canada at 1.5% is the only exception.

The high fatality rates are very high in Italy, Spain & UK because of a larger proportion of older people and because (in Italy), everyone who dies is being checked for the presence of Coronivirus and is being listed as a virus case, even if he died of a heard attack and was not admitted for Corona.



Again, this cold weather warm weather thing is conjecture with no science at this point.

Also, you can get a heart attack due to Corona induced respiratory stress if you are old and generally not 100% in cardiovascular health.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raveen » 20 Mar 2020 22:31

Deans wrote:


My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%


Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KLNMurthy » 20 Mar 2020 22:31

Bart S wrote:And who would have thought that it would be the educated ultra-elite folks who spread the virus as opposed to the much maligned unhygenic gawaar folks. :evil:

I think going forward every minute is critical. State of emergency needs to happen now, rather than half-measures and 'encouraging' people do stuff.

Sadly, the writing has been on the wall for some time as to the true nature of these 'civilized' 'elite' Indians, present company excepted of course.

Excuse the off-topic, but here's a small anecdote to illustrate the nature of this quarantine-breaking class.

Many-many years ago, I once had occasion to confront a gentleman at Chennai Airport--we had both landed on the same flight from Singapore. And said gent lighted up a cigarette in the airport customs queue, with nothing being said by the security staff (those were the days). I asked him if he would have done the same thing in Changi, and he went into a long tirade about how he was well-traveled and what a dirty place India was, what an undisciplined people Indians were, and on and on. Yes, that was his response.

I took my lessons right then and there about which class of people is India's real problem. I have seen no reason since then to change my conclusions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby khan » 20 Mar 2020 22:46

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/NewIndianXpress/status/1240886332810866690
The New Indian Express @NewIndianXpress

#CoronaVirusUpdate | 22-year-old doctor from #Maharashtra's Jalgaon knocked the doors of at least five private hospitals, but he was refused admission being a #coronavirus suspect. Now, he is in a ventilator, battling for his life.
@ss_suryawanshi

Lesson

1. Everyone is vulnerable Dog bite case (Rabies ???)
2. When in doubt, approach a government facility that is listed by the respective state government. Don't waste time with private hospitals.

Be aware and spread the message.

IMO, the real lesson is, private hospitals should be required to take care of anyone who knocks on their doors - if they have the room.

The people who turned away this gentlemen should be locked up for manslaughter if he dies and attempted manslaughter- if he doesn’t.

Of all places, a hospital should be aware of the hazards of sending a coronavirus patient out into the community.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 20 Mar 2020 22:48

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status/1240922727281811456
Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

Back from Bangladesh, 160 refuse quarantine in Srinagar. Start protest, break window panes in arrival area. Subsequently, their parents arrive and join protest

https://twitter.com/PadmajaJoshi/status ... 9619196933
Padmaja joshi @PadmajaJoshi

COVID-19: Two Catholic priests booked in Kerala for violating orders by conducting mass. If convicted, face 6-month jail term

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1240918414345949184
ANI @ANI

Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray: In Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nagpur - which have international airports, all shops (other than essentials) and offices to remain closed till 31st March, 2020. #COVID19 (file pic)



Why such big groups from JK going to Bangladesh?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 20 Mar 2020 22:57

A google search indicates India has 70,000 ICU beds. Assuming 2/3rd of them have ventilators, we have 50,000 ventilators for 1.3 billion people.
some others
UK 4500
Germany 20,000
Italy 3500
USA 135000 (they ventilated these many patients during last pandemic)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 20 Mar 2020 23:09

Several articles have appeared as to how one ventilator can be used to ventilate multiple patients https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/split-ventilators/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 20 Mar 2020 23:20

I think we dont have so many ventilators. Somewheres reading Delhi has only 500, which would mean around 5,000 or so, all over India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 20 Mar 2020 23:40

Italy's grim tale continues. 627 deaths today. Now on, I think it is only Math.

I hope our politicians are taking it seriously.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 20 Mar 2020 23:45

Raveen wrote:
Deans wrote:
My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%


Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.


1. It is a flu virus. Flu virus hits the worst during cold weather, and change of season (into cold or wet weather).
2. There was a paper written by some Tsinghua guys about the correlation of rate of spread and temperature & humidity, where they claimed that hot weather and high humidity were inhibitors. This looked like a decent paper but my beef with it was that it was written by CS types not public health persons. A quick search shows up some articles, e.g. https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/high-temperatures-and-muggy-weather-might-make-the-new-coronavirus-less-contagious-a-group-of-experts-says/articleshow/74697538.cms
3. Iran is cold this time of the year. There are mountains right by Teheran where it snows. Same with Italy. Italian alps, remember?
4. Cases from Dubai, SIngapore I will attribute to being in close confinement in an airconditioned recirculating environment. "warm weather" only applies to the outside, not when you are in airconditioning. Also it is an inhibitor not a blocker of transmission. So please continue to exercise the utmost of caution.

My doctor stated that there was zero correlation that any types of food induced acidity, and this had been studied in depth. I can with equal certainty say that certain foods (aerated drinks for instance) will 100% give me acidity that very night. It is like clockwork for me. So while a statistic may apply to the population at large, each individual's response may show something entirely different.

So far there has been minimal transmission in the wild in India. Let's hope it stays that way, but be prepared for the worst.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 20 Mar 2020 23:51

kit wrote:Forewarned is forearmed, India needs stricter measures maybe even enact an emergency if required before it is too late ., people cannot be running around or escape at will if tested positive !!

Unfortunately this might be needed sooner than you think. The number of cases has reached 200. If you compare the time taken for cases to reach from 0 to 100 and from 100 to 200 there is a significant drop. Which means the spread is accelerating and we might be on the exponential growth curve.

Draconian measures need to be put in place to stop people from congregating together. Time for asking nicely is over. Govt. can start with their own partymen, like the idiots in MP. Educated people seem to be no better than illiterate ones here (and might be worse) as Kanika Kapoor's example as shown. If we don't stop this now it will be a disaster.

Secondly, it might have been a good idea to test only symptomatic people or those who have had contact with infected people till now, but there have been so many instances of COVID-19 positive people mingling with general population till now that there is no way to figure out how many people might actually be walking around infected. Testing protocols might need to change.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 20 Mar 2020 23:54

yensoy wrote:
1. It is a flu virus. Flu virus hits the worst during cold weather, and change of season (into cold or wet weather).

It is not a Flu virus. Coronaviruses belong to a different family of viruses than Influenza viruses.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 21 Mar 2020 00:05

Gyan wrote:I think we dont have so many ventilators. Somewheres reading Delhi has only 500, which would mean around 5,000 or so, all over India.


DRDO and IITs should come up with a plan to design, develop and manufacture a ventilator by the millions in 3 weeks. It is doable. At the very basic, it is a clean air pump to aid human respiration.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 21 Mar 2020 00:10

disha wrote:
Gyan wrote:I think we dont have so many ventilators. Somewheres reading Delhi has only 500, which would mean around 5,000 or so, all over India.


DRDO and IITs should come up with a plan to design, develop and manufacture a ventilator by the millions in 3 weeks. It is doable. At the very basic, it is a clean air pump to aid human respiration.

Even if they designed one how would you set up large scale manufacturing facilities in days or weeks? This will be a classic case of starting to dig a well after one is thirsty unfortunately.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sohamn » 21 Mar 2020 00:10

Coronavirus is spreading in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, and Australia - and all these countries have either hot weather or are in summer months (e.g. Australia).

If we don't act, rest assured 1 crore Indians will die. And many amongst us are running like headless chickens giving the virus to others like soan halwa. One man is jumping quarantine in Telengana to attend his wedding with 1000 guests.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 21 Mar 2020 00:12

my friends from sweden and netherlands are reporting that they are under complete house arrest, with only bi-weekly visits for buying basic items allowed. also,sweden is very ikely fudging numbers.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 21 Mar 2020 00:23

sohamn wrote:Coronavirus is spreading in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, and Australia - and all these countries have either hot weather or are in summer months (e.g. Australia).

If we don't act, rest assured 1 crore Indians will die. And many amongst us are running like headless chickens giving the virus to others like soan halwa. One man is jumping quarantine in Telengana to attend his wedding with 1000 guests.


I think you need to calm down. GoI is doing what it can, but can't stop individuals. 1 crore is 10 million Indians. If you wish this, then go somewhere else.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 21 Mar 2020 00:24

Mod Note:

Another friendly reminder - this is the resource thread. Not the place to navel gaze or make up CTs. There won't be another thread for that because we have neither the time nor inclination to moderate such a thread.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 21 Mar 2020 00:25

Rahul M wrote:also,sweden is very ikely fudging numbers.

Why should anyone fudge numbers. May be taking precaution to control. More over even in spain things of ban is not too strict. I heard one can go for a walk in evening. Only malls theater are closed. Most on WFH

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 21 Mar 2020 00:29

you have to ask the ones doing the fudging. from what I got, only critical cases are being reported, not all cases.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby agupta » 21 Mar 2020 00:29

Folks

A thought to share: If we on BRF, have any thoughts that we are better informed/educated in any way or shape, I would think one responsibility this community can take up is that

We DO NOT propagate anything without the right context that gives people an excuse to slack off on their vigilance. This warm weather "hope" is just that YET - let the scientists PROVE it before YOU spread it. If you keep saying shit like this, its highly irresponsible and it will directly kill people in India in 2 months time... as it is, its enough of a challenge to keep certain parts of society protected from faith-based (Or) WhatsApp-Vedic recipes (you know what I mean :) as a cure for COVID-19

Right now there are lots of Open Source Pre-Prints that are seeing materials come in in the interest of info sharing and fast action; I know of at least 2 groups in the US that ARE trying to make a scientific determination on the temperature effect - you can imagine high risk and populated states like TX and FL are highly interested. That nothing deterministic has come out yet tells you its complicated (OR) that conclusive lab-based evidence is not there.

I would happily offer prasadam as heavy as a cave-full of bats WHEN its proven to be true, of course :)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 21 Mar 2020 00:31

Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raveen » 21 Mar 2020 00:34

yensoy wrote:
Raveen wrote:
Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.


1. It is a flu virus. Flu virus hits the worst during cold weather, and change of season (into cold or wet weather).
2. There was a paper written by some Tsinghua guys about the correlation of rate of spread and temperature & humidity, where they claimed that hot weather and high humidity were inhibitors. This looked like a decent paper but my beef with it was that it was written by CS types not public health persons. A quick search shows up some articles, e.g. https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/high-temperatures-and-muggy-weather-might-make-the-new-coronavirus-less-contagious-a-group-of-experts-says/articleshow/74697538.cms
3. Iran is cold this time of the year. There are mountains right by Teheran where it snows. Same with Italy. Italian alps, remember?
4. Cases from Dubai, SIngapore I will attribute to being in close confinement in an airconditioned recirculating environment. "warm weather" only applies to the outside, not when you are in airconditioning. Also it is an inhibitor not a blocker of transmission. So please continue to exercise the utmost of caution.

My doctor stated that there was zero correlation that any types of food induced acidity, and this had been studied in depth. I can with equal certainty say that certain foods (aerated drinks for instance) will 100% give me acidity that very night. It is like clockwork for me. So while a statistic may apply to the population at large, each individual's response may show something entirely different.

So far there has been minimal transmission in the wild in India. Let's hope it stays that way, but be prepared for the worst.


Its not the flu, get your basics right
Also, I meant scientific paper, not some random business insider article.

Brazil, New Zealand, Australia are warm right now, they still have cases.

Also, if the individual is human, then they will have human physiological reactions which are well understood, physcological reactions are individual and can create the sense of acidity or anything else you like.
Last edited by Raveen on 21 Mar 2020 00:52, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 21 Mar 2020 00:37

sudeepj wrote:
hanumadu wrote:How long before we have a virus with the fatality of SARS-COV-1 and the contagiousness of SARS-COV-2?


Usually, the more deadly a virus or bacteria is, the more the pressures of natural selection and evolution against it! Most viruses are much more potent when they first emerge, pressures of natural selection ensure that they become less of a threat with time. Its not in the viruses self interest (if a virus can have a self interest!) to kill the host! This can be seen in all viruses throughout history. Even HIV used to be much more deadly early on but now the virus is not as deadly.



Please digest the posts that raise new information before comment. HIV is now a chronic infection not because of attenuation of the virus but because patients are on life long antiretroviral drugs.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 21 Mar 2020 00:42

Gerard wrote:The more fatal a virus is, the less chance to spread. The most successful viruses are found embedded in human DNA, in every cell, passed down in all humans. Their dna is inactivated and does nothing.




Please digest posts before commenting. Not all viruses are retroviruses. And their DNA is not really viral DNA anymore. Thus they are not really evolutionarily successful. Further the human genome seems to make extensive use of regulatory sequences that derive from retroviruses. These viruses and humans seem to have been coevolving. They also seem to provide transposon elements that again drive gene flow.

Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 21 Mar 2020 00:45

vera_k wrote:Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health

Didn't read the article because it requires subscription however I don't agree with the statement, at all. Coming from the WSJ though it's hardly surprising.

Actually it is quite the opposite. That's why we see the economic chaos during covid19.


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