Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 21 Mar 2020 06:56

Please check the prior post by ramana that I was responding to.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 06:59

For some perspective,

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 21 Mar 2020 07:02

There is such a shortage of protective medical supplies that a local hospital started distributing raw material for people to take home and make into masks.

100 million masks

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Mar 2020 07:27

Ram Navami festival at Ayodhya being cancelled according to OpIndia . A very good decision .

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 21 Mar 2020 07:35

SriKumar wrote:^^^ Well, I agree with you that Ae^kx may not be the perfect equation to curve-fit, but the curves do show an exponential form to them, so I used it.

I see what happened. A(1+r)^x is not the cumulative value. The cumulative value that we're plotting is actually the sum:

A + A*r + A*r^2 + ... A*(r^x)

This works out to - A*(r^(x+1)-1)/(r-1), i.e., roughly C*r^(x+1) (where C is a constant, being A/(r-1)). This is roughly exponential, since C*r^(x+1)=C*e^(k*(x+1)), where k is log_e(r). So the exponential curve you're using is a good fit (sorry).

But whatever mathematical form you use, *for that data by khatvaange*, all point to the same conclusion that current spread in the US is on a steeper trajectory than ~~other countries~~ ITaly and Germany at the same point in time, i.e day 15 after crossing 200 infections . If you look at the raw numbers within the US, last 3 days is a completely different story than the 14 days prior to that. It went from 9K to 13K to 18K. I also agree that the daily new infections is a good metric to track, but that wont change what's coming the next few days, unfortunately.

I think a good bit of it is because of the US catching up on testing. The next couple of days will make that clearer, we'll see. However, in the next couple of days, the US is going to:

a. Surpass Italy to become the largest contributor to daily cases
b. Surpass a couple of other countries to become the third largest by total case load

It is very unnerving right now, watching the numbers climb, overall, we're still talking ppm (parts per million) values as compared to overall country populations, but this compounding, if it keeps up much longer, is going to blow that away.

(OT but all this reminds me of your substantial posts on 'axiomatic basis for dharma' and 'viral karma' where you postulated that viruses have consciousness/soul, albeit limited ).

Yeah, the postulate was, their consciousness is the same as that of any of us (plants, animals, humans, devas, gandharvas...) but that their expression of that consciousness is restricted by their limited physical bodies, which of course goes to their karmaphala. The most virulent viruses get their just desserts by dying out (karmaphala) - the most virulent strains quickly kill off their hosts and extinct themselves, the milder ones carry on (meek inheriting the earth). End OT.

nithish · Post by **nithish** » 21 Mar 2020 07:38

probably the first US report on critically ill COVID patients

Characteristics and Outcomes of 21 Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 in Washington State

A total of 21 cases were included (mean age, 70 years [range, 43-92 years]; 52% male). Comorbidities were identified in 18 cases (86%), with chronic kidney disease and congestive heart failure being the most common.

Mechanical ventilation was initiated in 15 patients (71%) (Table 2). Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was observed in 15 of 15 patients (100%) requiring mechanical ventilation and 8 of 15 (53%) developed severe ARDS by 72 hours.

Although most patients did not present with evidence of shock, vasopressors were used for 14 patients (67%) during the illness. Cardiomyopathy developed in 7 patients (33%).

As of March 17, 2020, mortality was 67%

As per the CHina experience, elderly do badly and have required mechanical ventilation but outcomes are sadly terrible. Being ventilated is only the first step - it then requires up to 20 days being weaned off the ventilator, may need to be nursed prone etc

In any other situation, if an elderly patient with multiple co-morbidities developed severe respiratory infections +/- failure, then it's highly unlikely that they would be intubated and ventilated because the prognosis is so poor
Yet, scores of elderly are being ventilated across the affected countries - especially Italy - which affects ventilator availability as well as increasing the risk of transmission to healthcare workers with every suction / bronchoscopy etc while ventilated

I appreciate that the infection is a reversible illness but in a situation like this, with thousands of cases, is it really feasible to carry on intubating the multimorbid elderly patients till we get to the stage of openly setting age limits?

shanth · Post by **shanth** » 21 Mar 2020 07:45

We are at war with the virus and we need to build herd immunity without a vaccine.
What if a country attempts to create people immune to the virus in the following controlled fashion.
Younger people are relatively unharmed, lets assume that 1% of infected young people need to be hospitalized and require ventilators.
So a volunteer army is raised, where young people agree to get infected by the virus.
The country is raising an army to go fight in the trenches and agree to treat them as soldiers in terms of compensation/treatment.
Just as a brave soilder agrees to fight against an enemy.

The number of people at any time who are attempting to get infected depends on the number of ventilators at hand.
So if there is 1 ventilator at a local hospital, 100 youth aged 18-25 are exposed to the virus.
In a week, they are immune and can help be the front line hands and feet at the hospital/grocery store etc.
There is risk ofcourse, but there is no path ahead without risk.

In this way we build herd immunity in a controlled fashion without overwhelming the system and allowing the system to run.
Perhaps BRF folks here can take this half-baked idea and make it better?

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 08:23

There are no vaccines against the common cold because they are too mutable and there are many strains. It is far easier to get a cure for one and when infected with another get a cure again. SARS-CoV2 is of a similar beast as the common cold virus, they belong to the same family of postive single strand rna virus, it too is mutable. Complicating the matter is the presence of ADE receptors that are present on all coronaviruses.

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) occurs when non-neutralizing antiviral proteins facilitate virus entry into host cells, leading to increased infectivity in the cells. Some cells do not have the usual receptors on their surfaces that viruses use to gain entry. The antiviral proteins (i.e., the antibodies) bind to antibody Fc receptors that some of these cells have in the plasma membrane. The viruses bind to the antigen binding site at the other end of the antibody. ADE is common in cells cultured in the laboratory, but rarely occurs in vivo except for dengue virus. This virus can use this mechanism to infect human macrophages, causing a normally mild viral infection to become life-threatening.[1]

Your own body turns against you to stop the duplication by the rna and covers it in mucus, which is how most people die, by drowning in their fluids.
No vaccines have ever been created for coronaviruses, period. The only reasonable solution is to hope for a cure with hydroxychloroquine and anti virals like ribavirin, or the usage of medications with higher presence of zinc which blocks the entry of the rna virus into the host cell in the first place. This is how malaria is treated.Keep in mind, the side effects of these are not being posted and for a good reason as it leads to a rise in cancer.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 08:54

I urge everyone to check out this video by kurgesagt that explains what actually happens when you contract covid. They are a reliable source for such types of information.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 21 Mar 2020 09:16

Pakistan coronavirus camp: ‘No facilities, no humanity’

Why Pakistan is the most chilled out in a world hit by coronavirus

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 21 Mar 2020 09:27

France reports 1,617 new cases of coronavirus and 78 new deaths, raising total to 12,612 cases and 450 dead.

U.S. TOTAL 19,671
Deaths 252
Serious 60
Critical 4
Recovered 26

Washington state and hospital officials have been meeting to consider what once was almost unthinkable — how to decide who lives and dies if, as feared, the coronavirus pandemic overwhelms the state’s health care system.

A staffer in the team of US Vice President Mike Pence has tested positive for the coronavirus.

#Coronavirus cases in India as of 8:45 AM on 21/3/2020

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 21 Mar 2020 09:40

sanjaykumar wrote:
Gerard wrote:The more fatal a virus is, the less chance to spread. The most successful viruses are found embedded in human DNA, in every cell, passed down in all humans. Their dna is inactivated and does nothing.

Please digest posts before commenting. Not all viruses are retroviruses. And their DNA is not really viral DNA anymore. Thus they are not really evolutionarily successful. Further the human genome seems to make extensive use of regulatory sequences that derive from retroviruses. These viruses and humans seem to have been coevolving. They also seem to provide transposon elements that again drive gene flow.

May I humbly request all here to please post those reports/links/summaries/opinions that are scientifically/medically accurate. I can understand we all want to help, but I expect BRF not to be like my WA group where people forward whatever they get without any verification.

What we need is BRFites with a medical/scientific background to post data/factoids that they have been able to verify to the best of their knowledge. That would be really useful. As I am sure is the case with all of you in these fields, we become the go-to persons for families and they look to us for advice. Personally I find BRF to be a better source than most other places.

However, there is already too much misinformation on the virus, its epidemiology, effect on the human body and treatment options. Data is too conflicting and still hard to decipher. In this climate personal opinions and half-remembered facts just add to the noise.

Apologies, do not mean to offend anyone.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 21 Mar 2020 09:44

There is a extradinary spike today. What we are seeing over a period of time is spike in UP, Delhi, Kerala, Ladhak. This might be because these are tourist circuits. We have to keep a watch on these places, mainly Kerala and UP. Work circuits like Karnataka and Maharashtra are pretty stable after initial numbers.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 21 Mar 2020 09:51

Raveen wrote:
Deans wrote:
My mistake. I guess, the only reassuring thing for us is being in a hot weather zone. You get infected but don't die. I think critics are overdoing the `Not testing enough' thing. No one has tested more than SoKo and their death rate is still over 1%
Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.

I'm making an inference from the data, not quoting any paper - though there is one that suggests that R0 in our kind of temperatures reduces by about 0.3 (from 2 to 1.7) compared to Wuhan in Jan/Feb.

I've not said Brazil, Spain, Italy or Iran are cold. Not sure how that is implied from my post. My point was that climates much hotter than Wuhan/Apline Italy/Northern Iran, or much colder (Russia,Estonia, Scandanavia) have so far reported lower death rates. The only thing that stood out for me was climate.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 21 Mar 2020 10:04

https://www.spiegel.de/international/ge ... ok#ref=rss
The Battle Begins
Are Hospitals Ready for the Coming Wave of Corona Cases?
The German health-care system is considered one of the best in the world. But the coronavirus is mercilessly exposing its weaknesses, with some hospitals already facing difficulties. Can Germany prevent the kind of collapse seen in Italy?
20.03.2020.
By Matthias Bartsch, Jörg Blech, Annette Bruhns, Lukas Eberle, Katrin Elger, Markus Feldenkirchen, Kristina Gnirke, Annette Großbongardt, Hubert Gude, Veronika Hackenbroch, Julia Jüttner, Martin U. Müller, Cornelia Schmergal and Steffen Winter
.....
There’s some good news and some bad news for people in Germany right now. The good news is that Germany is home to one of the most modern, richest and most powerful health-care systems in the world. We have an "excellent health-care system, perhaps one of the best in the world,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in her address to the nation on Wednesday night. It is better equipped for dealing with the corona epidemic than the systems of many other countries.
The bad news is that large parts of this system are already overwhelmed. Depending on how fast the number of infections increases in the days and weeks to come, we could experience a collapse and failure of the system. And it will be deemed to have failed if people have to die because of a shortage in staff, beds and equipment -- and not because this illness is incurable.
In northern Italy, the collapse of the health-care system has been evident for weeks. "Soon, we will no longer be able to provide treatment for the sick,” Attilio Fontana, the president of Lombardy said. There aren’t enough ventilators in the Italian crisis region, and doctors are forced to make new decisions each day over who gets access to a ventilator and who is left to die. "Triage” is the term given to this cruel choice, and it is a procedure that originated in military medicine. If there are suddenly masses of injured people, priorities have to be assigned. Rescue workers sift through the victims and then hand out bracelets or tags that are usually color-coded. Red is for patients requiring immediate treatment. Yellow is for patients who can wait. Those given green are the lowest priority and have to wait the longest for help. The helpers do little for patients in the blue category. They are so seriously injured or ill that any effort would be futile under those circumstances.
Germany may soon have to take a similar approach. In recent days, a chief physician from the Rhineland had to admit to a colleague that he only has seven ventilators at his hospital. He said he needs 13 in order to get through a major wave of serious infections.
And that wave will come - that much is certain. "We expect that things will really heat up in the next two weeks, also here in Germany," says Axel Fischer, managing director of the München Klinik, a Munich-based chain of hospitals. His hospital treated the first patients infected with the coronavirus in January. He fears the crisis will have a "massive impact.” The coronavirus is mercilessly exposing the problems that have been burdening the German health-care system for years: the pitfalls of profit-driven hospital financing. The pressure to cut spending. The chronic shortage of nursing staff. The often poor equipping of public health departments. The lag in digitalization. "We are preparing for imminent catastrophe,” says Rudolf Mintrop, head of the Dortmund Klinikum, the city’s main hospital. He calculates that the wave of sick will hit hospitals at full force in 10 to 14 days. The chancellor has warned that German hospitals will be "completely overwhelmed" if too many patients with serious coronavirus infections have to be admitted within a very short period. Ultimately, the question of life and death will be decided in the intensive care units. The answer will depend on how many ventilator beds there are, how many doctors are on call and how many nurses are able to provide care for critically ill patients.
.....
Gautam

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Mar 2020 10:21

Raveen, everyone - you are welcome to ask for information. Please do so politely. No haranguing or unnecessary sarcasm.

This is merely a note. Do NOT reply back with an explanation or contesting the above note. Thanks.

Deans wrote:
Raveen wrote:
Show me 1 scientific paper supporting your warm weather theory - didn't realize Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Iran were considered COLD.
I'm making an inference from the data, not quoting any paper - though there is one that suggests that R0 in our kind of temperatures reduces by about 0.3 (from 2 to 1.7) compared to Wuhan in Jan/Feb.

I've not said Brazil, Spain, Italy or Iran are cold. Not sure how that is implied from my post. My point was that climates much hotter than Wuhan/Apline Italy/Northern Iran, or much colder (Russia,Estonia, Scandanavia) have so far reported lower death rates. The only thing that stood out for me was climate.

arvin · Post by **arvin** » 21 Mar 2020 10:24

kvraghav wrote:There is a extradinary spike today. What we are seeing over a period of time is spike in UP, Delhi, Kerala, Ladhak. This might be because these are tourist circuits. We have to keep a watch on these places, mainly Kerala and UP. Work circuits like Karnataka and Maharashtra are pretty stable after initial numbers.

Kerala till morning of 20th march was 25 positive and was doing a good job with no reports for 2 consecutive days . By evening count increased by 12. 6 cases were not surprising since 5 were of british tourists who were with previously infected colleague of theirs who roamed around by breaking quarantine i think in kochi. Remaining 1 case was a mallu returned from UK in palakad.
Other 6 was entirely from kasargod due to local transmission. Kasargod might emerge as a hotspot in coming weeks if measures are not in place.

Sorry only 4 are local while 1 is from dubai and other from sharjah.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Mar 2020 10:28

A few points from news reports. GOI in Feb reached out to PPE manufacturers for a major order of gloves, masks. + step
Ventilators - we are in trouble: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

This is a perfect example of haphazard bad planning by the pvt and public side both. GOI should have stepped in ages ago and coordinated, created some kind of inventory management for actually manufacturing these items. Which is why I say we need far more pvt sector type decision makers in GOI, the era of hand-written note on file sent to babu for "further notice" is gone, in todays world.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Mar 2020 10:31

Also, we need armed forces or enhanced CISF deployment at airports and quarantine facilities. Per reports, a bunch of M folks arrived at Coimbatore, and fought/argued their way out of the airport without checks and the staff got worried about the communal angle. This cannot be allowed to happen.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 21 Mar 2020 10:41

The problem with kerala is it has internationalised muslim population. This means rapid spreading and may takedown Mangalore and Udupi with it. WRT ventilators, I think even if we hit 20000 cases per day and if 10% are critical, that means we need 2k ventilators per day for may be 4 days max. We will have a result for ICU cases within 4 to 5 days either ways. That's 8 to 10K ventilators.

syam · Post by **syam** » 21 Mar 2020 11:07

Tamilnadu Health minster is one of the best. What a gem lost in the regular din all these days. May maa bhavani give more shakthi to him. modiji should bring jp nadda saab back to health ministry asap. I don't think harshavardhan can handle the situation in coming days.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 21 Mar 2020 11:12

Bank employees fear being infected after manager meets Kanika Kapoor in Lucknow. Despite the bank employees insisting their branch head to go into isolation, he has refused to do so.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 21 Mar 2020 11:22

Central Government of India recommends coronavirus test for pneumonia patients. All public and private hospitals have been instructed to do this.

syam · Post by **syam** » 21 Mar 2020 11:46

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚
@jenniferatntd
·
4h
Data of China Mobile since 2017
Column 1-5 are date, total users, net monthly growth, net cumulative growth of the year, 4G & 5G users
One can see that total users kept growing until Dec 2019. Then it lost 862K users in Jan and 7.254M in Feb. 8.118M net loss in 2020. #CCPVirus

Another major carrier, China Telecommunications, lost 5.6 million users in Feb. I haven't found any figures for China Unicom.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 21 Mar 2020 11:59

kvraghav wrote:There is a extradinary spike today. What we are seeing over a period of time is spike in UP, Delhi, Kerala, Ladhak. This might be because these are tourist circuits. We have to keep a watch on these places, mainly Kerala and UP. Work circuits like Karnataka and Maharashtra are pretty stable after initial numbers.

No spike is there outside the tourist circuit as well.

I work in Ahmedabad.
Yesterday count in Gujarat was 5. It was 7 in the morning and now it is 9 as I write.

The Gujarat govt. seems most lax and callous in this matter.
Shops, business and establishments are all open.

Total Indian numbers now are 219 + 39 (Indian + Foreigners)

nam · Post by **nam** » 21 Mar 2020 12:35

ricky_v wrote:

This is a good reference on where we are. Note the positive case rate against the testing numbers.

In case of Italy, a clear community spread, it is high as 30-40% positive cases.

In UK it is around 3%. We are around 2-3%.

So looks like we are at the starting point.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 21 Mar 2020 12:40

sooraj wrote:Bank employees fear being infected after manager meets Kanika Kapoor in Lucknow. Despite the bank employees insisting their branch head to go into isolation, he has refused to do so.

Bayer Sacked the Employee who broke curfew...time to do the same here. I have started hashtag #cancelpassport to punish those who break quarantine

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 21 Mar 2020 12:54

GoI better prepare for large scale HeliVac operations... one option that I feel should be explored is to chopper contaminated cases from point on infection to a secure medical facility where they can be treated and observed. ARMY aviation.

In Katra Jammu there is a private helicopter services that ferries passengers from terminal to the top at 2 min intervals. I feel that rapidly moving infected patients (from crowded locations) via air to large military medical facility where people cannot jump quarantine may be a solution.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Mar 2020 13:20

https://www.livemint.com/politics/polic ... 21144.html

“No suspected Covid-19 patient should be turned away from any hospital and the admission of any such patient should be notified to NCDC (National Cooperative Development Corporation) or IDSP (Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme) immediately," the health ministry said in its latest advisory. “Similarly, all pneumonia patients must also be notified to NCDC or IDSP so that they can be tested for COVID 19."

So far, only suspected patients with a travel history or those who had come in contact with another patient were allowed to be tested as the government claimed that there was no evidence of community transmission, wherein the disease would have spread to a much larger area.

Under the new guidelines, all hospitals have been asked to set apart some beds and create isolation facilities. “Hospitals must procure sufficient numbers of ventilators and high-flow oxygen masks in preparation for future requirements. All hospitals must ensure that they have adequate trained manpower and resource pools for ventilator/ICU (intensive care unit) care," the health ministry said in its advisory. The government has also asked hospitals to cancel all leaves immediately, except under emergency and unavoidable circumstances.

Now they release this circular? What was the health ministry doing all this while? Is this a reiteration (which is fine) or are they so thoroughly incompetent that now they state this message?? We have C-17s picking up people - why weren't emergency imports of equipment resorted to, why else do we have those $400 Billion in forex reserves?

The health ministry bureaucracy does not inspire confidence. How is a hospital supposed to procure all this at the nth moment? In January, February itself, all this should have been done, with emergency imports of equipment in a centrally monitored pool and with associated eqpt, engineering and medical expertise.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 13:23

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Mar 2020 13:24

syam wrote:
Jennifer Zeng 曾錚
@jenniferatntd
·
4h
Data of China Mobile since 2017
Column 1-5 are date, total users, net monthly growth, net cumulative growth of the year, 4G & 5G users
One can see that total users kept growing until Dec 2019. Then it lost 862K users in Jan and 7.254M in Feb. 8.118M net loss in 2020. #CCPVirus

Another major carrier, China Telecommunications, lost 5.6 million users in Feb. I haven't found any figures for China Unicom.

What is this in reference to? And is she suggesting that the loss in cell users was a result of covid19 deaths? Any links to the source and it's veracity?

syam · Post by **syam** » 21 Mar 2020 13:32

Cain Marko wrote: What is this in reference to? And is she suggesting that the loss in cell users was a result of covid19 deaths? Any links to the source and it's veracity?

check the user timeline. i don't want to get my post deleted. just don't trust the numbers put out by ccp.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Mar 2020 13:36

syam wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: What is this in reference to? And is she suggesting that the loss in cell users was a result of covid19 deaths? Any links to the source and it's veracity?
check the user timeline. i don't want to get my post deleted. just don't trust the numbers put out by ccp.

It's just a post Saar. Drone warriors naat hit banbamb if the link can be posted, Hainji? Seriously the reason I'm asking is that I can't make sense of that post... Twitter illiterate wonlee

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 13:37

Note its only north italy and lombardia at this point.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 13:43

https://archive.is/8jQYP

"We're working in a state of very high stress and tension," said Daniela Confalonieri, a nurse at a hospital in Milan, the capital of the wealthy northern region of Lombardy, which has been the epicentre of the epidemic.
"Unfortunately we can't contain the situation in Lombardy. There's a high level of contagion and we're not even counting the dead any more," she said.
The government announced late Thursday it was putting together a 300-strong team of medical volunteers from the rest of the country to reinforce to the worst-affected areas.
Underscoring the scale of the drama, soldiers transported bodies overnight from the northern town of Bergamo, northeast of Milan, whose cemetery has been overwhelmed.

Earlier local authorities had appealed for help with cremations as their own crematorium could not cope with the huge workload.

https://archive.is/i0vGJ

However, the coronavirus crisis , which is being primed especially with the Community of Madrid , has come to disrupt this normality. As EL ESPAÑOL has learned, one of the main headaches that the autonomous government is facing, along with the saturation of the ICUs, is that of incineration. The waiting list to incinerate someone in Madrid is now up to three days .

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 13:47

Research papers on the virus.
https://the-eye.eu/public/Papers/CoronaVirusPapers/

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 13:51

Strains and mutations

syam · Post by **syam** » 21 Mar 2020 14:05

Cain Marko wrote: It's just a post Saar. Drone warriors naat hit banbamb if the link can be posted, Hainji? Seriously the reason I'm asking is that I can't make sense of that post... Twitter illiterate wonlee

paste - Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 - in google box. the first result will be her twitter account.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 21 Mar 2020 14:10

US well on the way to silver

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Mar 2020 14:25

syam wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: It's just a post Saar. Drone warriors naat hit banbamb if the link can be posted, Hainji? Seriously the reason I'm asking is that I can't make sense of that post... Twitter illiterate wonlee
paste - Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 - in google box. the first result will be her twitter account.

The problem with the claim is that cell operators sweep their SIM records regularly for inactive numbers that are removed in bulk. Very little can be inferred from a few million change in numbers - both China and India have subscriber counts north of 1 billion now, and both have periodically scaled down numbers when invalid sims were removed from the counts.