Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

syam wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: What is this in reference to? And is she suggesting that the loss in cell users was a result of covid19 deaths? Any links to the source and it's veracity?
check the user timeline. i don't want to get my post deleted. just don't trust the numbers put out by ccp.
No one trusts anything out of Cheen. So how can these telecom numbers help us?

Are you saying that the deaths for a billion plus population would be 8.5 million or 20 million if we combine the other chini phone carriers. India has the same-sized population as Cheen. So what should Indians do knowing these chini numbers? Go into complete panic? Sit and die because if 4k deaths in Italy is crushing their health care system then what would 20m deaths do to ours?

Use the numbers from nations we trust. Speculating on Cheen and North Korea do nothing for us except create unsubstantiated fear and panic.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

I don't know if it is too late, atleast the international flights are closing down.

I hope we do some aggressive contact tracing and testing to weed out the infected.

Put them in a guarded isolation. Our people have no respect for law.

We need a portable self testing kit, which can be used by the people.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

Delhi couple with home quarantine seal found aboard Bangalore-Delhi Rajdhani, deboarded at Kazipet in Telangana: Railways. Rajdhani coach in which Delhi couple with home quarantine seal travelled sanitised; both passengers hospitalised; train detained: Railways.

UP Health Minister Jai Pratap Singh, who was at a party with singer Kanika Kapoor, tests negative for coronavirus: official sources. Samples of 28 people who came in contact with UP Health Minister Jai Pratap Singh have tested negative for COVID-19: KGMU Hospital.

Couple in Maharashtra's Jalgaon district booked for allegedly failing to inform authorities about recent trip to Thailand: Police.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

Taiwan Says It Warned WHO About Coronavirus In December, But Its Warnings Were Ignored
Taiwan is blaming the World Health Organization’s relationship with China for its failure to act on early warnings of human-to-human transmission of coronavirus.

Taiwanese health officials alerted WHO of the infectivity of coronavirus in late December 2019, but the organization failed to report the claims to other countries, according to a Financial Times report.

Weeks after receiving Taiwan’s warning, on Jan. 14, WHO repeated China’s claim that coronavirus was not contagious among humans.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by khan »

Sounds like, community transmission is happening. It will take a miracle for India to not be a disaster at this point. They should start focusing on:
1. PPE
2. Hospital/ventilators
3. Quinine supplies (everyone says this works) - no harm to start manufacturing it now on a war footing
4. Cheap and quick testing
5. Crematoriums

Contact tracing will slow it down, but not much else.
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

nam wrote:I don't know if it is too late, atleast the international flights are closing down.

I hope we do some aggressive contact tracing and testing to weed out the infected.

Put them in a guarded isolation. Our people have no respect for law.

We need a portable self testing kit, which can be used by the people.
Just like the US, India did well guarding infections from the primary site in Cheen. Once the thing spreads, the secondary sites like in Europe and the Gulf become impossible to control with targeted embargoes. Basically you need to go full isolation from everyone.

But isolation creates a massive economic impact that was why flights from Europe and the Gulf states took such a long time to shut down.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/jith_pra/status/1241039351884075008
praju @jith_pra

In north kerala (Kasaragod) a locally prominent person returned from dubai 8 days ago, attended a wedding (shaked hands&took selfie with 2 MLAs), football matches, visited clubs and masjid, travelled to calicut in Maveli express (usually crowded) and also met several others.
https://twitter.com/BloombergQuint/stat ... 9000311808
BloombergQuint @BloombergQuint

SBI to open ad hoc credit facilities for MSME borrowers impacted by #COVID19.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by kvjayan »

Just by way of information.

Quinine is a natural product (alkaloid) extracted from cinchona bark, useful in the treatment of malaria.

What is very much talked about in the present context are well-established synthetic anti-malarials such as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, both somewhat structurally related to quinine.

quote="khan"]Sounds like, community transmission is happening. It will take a miracle for India to not be a disaster at this point. They should start focusing on:
1. PPE
2. Hospital/ventilators
3. Quinine supplies (everyone says this works) - no harm to start manufacturing it now on a war footing
4. Cheap and quick testing
5. Crematoriums

Contact tracing will slow it down, but not much else.[/quote]
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 736907.cms
All sins forgiven if you have contracted infection!!
Imagine if a Guru or one of the Shankaracharya says this!!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ricky_v »

We are woefully under prepared, the lack of ventilators, the dense population, the stupid public,the lack of trained personnel, ppes. This will hit us like a ton of bricks, no amount of wishful thinking of a vaccine, or heat, no matter how many trials are happening now is going to change that. Enforce the bloody quarantine now lads do not try social programming at this stage.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by syam »

Suraj wrote: The problem with the claim is that cell operators sweep their SIM records regularly for inactive numbers that are removed in bulk. Very little can be inferred from a few million change in numbers - both China and India have subscriber counts north of 1 billion now, and both have periodically scaled down numbers when invalid sims were removed from the counts.
the subscribers count won't tell us much other than giving some number. the purpose is to put as much evidence as possible and try to come up with what the real numbers can be. I have seen many videos from wuhan which show horrific visuals. the social institutions are failing one by one. if the numbers are faked, people won't be able to know the real truth. and prepare for it.

And chola sir,

the situation in china is horrible. they never recovered from the virus. they are expecting it to pass like some flu with some big number causalities and things will be normal once the flue season is over. it's false hope. the large world doesn't need it.

the whole global system is broke now and infected with virus. better decouple everything and cut the connections. societies should be isolated. the virus will mutate to local strain and the community will gain immunity over time with medicines and other means. until then, the global systems are not safe.
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

syam wrote:
Suraj wrote: The problem with the claim is that cell operators sweep their SIM records regularly for inactive numbers that are removed in bulk. Very little can be inferred from a few million change in numbers - both China and India have subscriber counts north of 1 billion now, and both have periodically scaled down numbers when invalid sims were removed from the counts.
the subscribers count won't tell us much other than giving some number. the purpose is to put as much evidence as possible and try to come up with what the real numbers can be. I have seen many videos from wuhan which show horrific visuals. the social institutions are failing one by one. if the numbers are faked, people won't be able to know the real truth.

And chola sir,

the situation in china is horrible. they never recovered from the virus. they are expecting it to pass like some flu with some big number causalities and things will be normal once the flue season is over. it's false hope. the large world doesn't need it.

the whole global system is broke now and infected with virus. better decouple everything and cut the connections. societies should be isolated. the virus will mutate to local strain and the community will gain immunity over time with medicines and other means. until then, the global systems are not safe.
Syam ji, everyone is increasingly isolated from everyone else in today's world. There are massive infection centers in Europe, the Middle East and North America. Decoupling from Cheen is meaningless today.

The truth is chinis are flooding back home because they think the situation there is better than Europe and the US. The expats are going back because their operations are opening again -- Apple stores are all opened in Cheen but closed everywhere else in the world, Starbuck stores are opening again in Cheen but closing everywhere else, Hormel (maker of Spam) saw a huge spike in sales in Cheen last week, etc.

If they are lying and the virus is still raging then this inflow should stop abruptly.

The most important story that Wall Street is watching ftom Cheen is this:

If Cheen goes back into a crisis with second wave infections then that would be a profound impact on the future economic and health calculus. It will basically mean that this thing cannot be contained until everyone is infected or there is a vaccine. It means any nation can become infected again once its economy recovers.

The Hobbesian choice becomes death by virus or death by economic collapse (which would kill far more people.) If that is the case, then most nations will go for "herd immunity."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN218003
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ricky_v »

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nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

chola wrote:
But isolation creates a massive economic impact that was why flights from Europe and the Gulf states took such a long time to shut down.
It would have been cheaper to shutdown international flight for 2-3 weeks, than pay salary for everyone once the infection spread. UK government is now paying salary up to 2500 pounds of people who have lost jobs. They did not bother closing down their borders.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

I guess the economic model has to change for few months until we have a vaccine. Two types of jobs: people working from home and and other s supporting those working from home.

Retail sector using home delivery to provide service.You want to pint of beer, home delivery. All items home delivered. This way you can sustain some of the business. Drivers who have been in bus & train, now become home delivery drivers.

It will be a economy of essentials. All forth cleaned up.
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

Cheen recorded 41 cases of imported coronavirus on Friday. That's just in one day compared to India's 250 cases overall.

Human nature is that any recovering nation will see this reverse flow. If Cheen becomes re-infected again then that pretty much means that the thing can't be stopped.

As much as we dislike the chinks, in this case we should hope they recover otherwise the future dims for all of us.

https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.p ... 7157&gfv=1
China's imported coronavirus cases soar as students, expats flock home

March 20, 2020 8:04 PM

By Engen Tham and Yilei Sun

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - China reported a record rise in imported coronavirus cases on Friday as expatriates returned home from the United States and Europe, sparking fears of a second wave of infections just as the country recovers from the initial outbreak.
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

nam wrote:
chola wrote:
But isolation creates a massive economic impact that was why flights from Europe and the Gulf states took such a long time to shut down.
It would have been cheaper to shutdown international flight for 2-3 weeks, than pay salary for everyone once the infection spread. UK government is now paying salary up to 2500 pounds of people who have lost jobs. They did not bother closing down their borders.
I don't know. Anglos are agile thinkers. They were (and, in the form of Amreekis, are) the dominant global race for the last 300 years for a reason.

Perhaps they are right that this thing can't be contained and it is better to just let the thing run its course. If countries can be infected and re-infected over and over then the one that allowed its population to be infected as soon as possible will have an advantage over a nation that flails itself trying to stop the virus only to become re-infected again and again anyways until it too is fully infected.
Last edited by chola on 21 Mar 2020 15:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by kvraghav »

The trains are still running and it was time to shut them down two weeks before. This will be a big disaster I think just because the govt wanted to save some tax money.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by khan »

nam wrote:I guess the economic model has to change for few months until we have a vaccine. Two types of jobs: people working from home and and other s supporting those working from home.

Retail sector using home delivery to provide service.You want to pint of beer, home delivery. All items home delivered. This way you can sustain some of the business. Drivers who have been in bus & train, now become home delivery drivers.

It will be a economy of essentials. All forth cleaned up.
IMO more realistic, is a treatment like some anti-viral or chloroquine that could make the course of the virus treatable with common flu level survival rates.

You would have massive testing at the slightest symptoms and if anyone tests positive, get them on the treatment ASAP.

This would create a herd immunity in 6 months or so and you could have a semi-normal life meanwhile.

I strongly suspect China has done this.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

nam wrote:I guess the economic model has to change for few months until we have a vaccine. Two types of jobs: people working from home and and other s supporting those working from home.

Retail sector using home delivery to provide service.You want to pint of beer, home delivery. All items home delivered. This way you can sustain some of the business. Drivers who have been in bus & train, now become home delivery drivers.

It will be a economy of essentials. All forth cleaned up.
Working from home is just borrowed time. All work eventually needs real world interaction. Work from home is doing "work" that must be translated in the real world at some point in the future.

If real goods do not change hands between real people, then companies employing the wallahs pushing pencil and paper at home will eventually die. Working from home is not an industry.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ricky_v »

the legion of the 50 cents
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by kvraghav »

Kasargod infected person has donated blood in Mangalore. As I always says, kerala will take down Mangalore with it. Mangalore has turned jihadic because of kerala. High time govt ok Karnataka starts serious checking and control movement between kerala and Mangalore for bad influences.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by LakshmanPST »

If I come to know about a person with a Home-quarantine stamp roaming around freely, where should I complain...?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Rahul M »

call the local COVID number that is being played at the start of calls.also call 100 for good measure.
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Post by ricky_v »

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-me ... g-patients
“It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%. The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator. The additional pressure helps the oxygen go into the bloodstream.
It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe. When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning.

“When someone has an infection, I’m used to seeing the normal colors you’d associate with it: greens and yellows. The coronavirus patients with ARDS have been having a lot of secretions that are actually pink because they’re filled with blood cells that are leaking into their airways. They are essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full. So we’re constantly having to suction out the secretions every time we go into their rooms.”
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sajo »

Gyan wrote:
sajo wrote:I am from Pune. locked myself and the family in for the entire week. Coughing and sneezing a bit, and just measured a mild fever (~99F). The significant other is going bonkers though. No history of meeting any one who has returned from anywhere.
Sneezing may indicate that it's not Coronavirus. Though consultation with Doctor is absolutely must.
Thank you sir. The fever subsided with a paracetamol and did not make an appearance for the rest of the day. I checked just as a precaution again today, only to be running a mild fever again. But I am feeling fine otherwise, will check in some time if it has gone away by its own.
At my Parent's place though, the local Guntha Mantri (landowner/goons who still think they own the vast tracts they sold) has his son return from the UK via Dubai on the 15th. Happily roaming about without a care in the world. The chairman of the housing complex called the PMC authorities, who simply took the family's cell number yesterday, not that it mattered. Most corporators around here are related in some way to them.
Strict instructions to my parents to not venture out. Sent the maid on a paid holiday.

Looks like community transmission has started in Pune. :gulp:

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pun ... 44036.html


In Pune atleast, the main vegetable wholesale market has been shut. The supply of veggies has hence dramatically dried up over the past couple of days. We couldnt stock even if we meant to. We have some stock, but maybe for a week.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Dileep »

IndraD wrote:A google search indicates India has 70,000 ICU beds. Assuming 2/3rd of them have ventilators, we have 50,000 ventilators for 1.3 billion people.
some others
UK 4500
Germany 20,000
Italy 3500
USA 135000 (they ventilated these many patients during last pandemic)
Wrong assumption. I am sure it is way less than that. Maybe 10%.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Went to my local test center after my doc said i better get tested. The protocol online has reportedly changed. The test center is in its own sweet world, and informed me that only if I were to be in severe distress or had direct contact with folks from abroad, I would get tested. Otherwise I could just check with their "flu center". The duty doctor appeared promptly concurred with the junior resident. The whole thing is set up to fail and increasingly reminds me of what one of my bosses said when a strategy plan was scuppered based on "historical data", he said its akin to driving forward while looking in the review mirror. I unnecessarily exposed myself to an infectious environment trying to do the right thing, and observed many people with symptoms which should have really caused a red flag being summarily dismissed because "protocol did not allow". I really think we need some kind of prophylaxis because the ICMR protocol is set up for failure. I hope I am mistaken and would be glad to (in George J's words) eat crow.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

kvraghav wrote:The trains are still running and it was time to shut them down two weeks before. This will be a big disaster I think just because the govt wanted to save some tax money.
Its not that they wanted to save tax money. (the railways are not profitable). People travel for a reason. Stopping the railways will cripple the economy. A lockdown for a month might lead to starvation deaths exceeding virus deaths, as the urban daily wage earners run out of savings. For e.g. daily wage earners are leaving Mumbai for their villages, by train as there is no work in Mumbai. If they stay in Mumbai they run out of money to live. The only problem with the railways so far has been the idiots who refused to obey quarantine instructions. You can't design a system to handle human stupidity. The railways have cut some trains and with reduced passenger loads on the trains that are running, the social distance is as good as you can normally expect in India.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

"Doctor's take: How I cured coronavirus using anti-HIV drugs"

https://www.newindianexpress.com/videos ... 08207.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Dileep wrote:
IndraD wrote:A google search indicates India has 70,000 ICU beds. Assuming 2/3rd of them have ventilators, we have 50,000 ventilators for 1.3 billion people.
some others
UK 4500
Germany 20,000
Italy 3500
USA 135000 (they ventilated these many patients during last pandemic)
Wrong assumption. I am sure it is way less than that. Maybe 10%.
The constraint we face is ventilators and not ICU beds (regular beds can be `converted' relatively fast. I don't think we have more than 30,000 ventilators across the country (of which some 10,000 will be occupied by other ICU patients or not working). However, these are concentrated in the larger cities, so tragically, if we get to stage 3, most people wouldn't make it to a ventilator.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sajo »

Gurus, would the management of Corona like symptoms change in pregnant women? 2 of my extended team members are on maternity leave (one very close to her due date) and are having an intensely harrowing time just thinking about the consequences.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

So it requires 2-3 weeks of iron clad lockdown , with testing and isolation. That is the recommended 14 days of isolation.

I think it is time we need to plan something on these lines.

Our major cities should be broken up in to area of isolation. Two weeks of ghar me baithana. Is there is a report of infection, the entire area to be tested and infected either hospitalized or isolated.

There was a case in Kodagu in Karnataka. The local admin locked down the place with 5km buffer zone. Similar methods needs to be employed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

sajo wrote:Gurus, would the management of Corona like symptoms change in pregnant women? 2 of my extended team members are on maternity leave (one very close to her due date) and are having an intensely harrowing time just thinking about the consequences.
Pregnant women, need to take extra precautions due to the effects on their immunity, as a result of pregnancy. Infection would make them weak, hence need to take the precautions. Ask the doctor for further advice.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sajo »

nam wrote:
sajo wrote:Gurus, would the management of Corona like symptoms change in pregnant women? 2 of my extended team members are on maternity leave (one very close to her due date) and are having an intensely harrowing time just thinking about the consequences.
Pregnant women, need to take extra precautions due to the effects on their immunity, as a result of pregnancy. Infection would make them weak, hence need to take the precautions. Ask the doctor for further advice.
I believe doctors in Pune region atleast are seeing only high risk cases/serious right now. Anyway, the situation right now is so fluid that we never know.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

In lighter vein


Explaining the gap in your CV in 2020


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Koreans has created a 10 minute test kit.

https://twitter.com/vaitor/status/1241337295606657033

This is more important now than hunt for vaccine. I hope GoI gets some right away.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

In India, we are familiar with appeals from so called 'eminent intellectuals'

WHO has been pushing the cheeni case for the longest time now. Too bad that except for china, no one else seems to give a damn about the WHO and it's agenda.

Somewhat like the "UN Human rights" group being dominated by the worst possible offenders on human rights ever assembled in any one single place.

On Feb 13, global health experts published opinion that there is no need to put travel restrictions on China.

"Top medical journal", The Lancet.


Intellectuals lied. People died.

A bit strange that the among the organisations that supported "this" research, there is not a single one from asia, and especially from India which has globally acknowledged expertise in this area.

Is it racism, xenophobia or just good old plain vanilla racism


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 1/fulltext


The International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR)1 govern how 196 countries and WHO collectively address the global spread of disease and avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade. Article 43 of this legally binding instrument restricts the measures countries can implement when addressing public health risks to those measures that are supported by science, commensurate with the risks involved, and anchored in human rights.

1 The intention of the IHR is that countries should not take needless measures that harm people or that disincentivise countries from reporting new risks to international public health authorities.

2 In imposing travel restrictions against China during the current outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries are violating the IHR. We—16 global health law scholars—came to this conclusion after applying the interpretive framework of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties3 and reaching a jurisprudential consensus on the legal meaning of IHR Article 43 .
International Health Regulations (2005) Article 43.1 to 43.5 on Additional Health Measures

1 These Regulations shall not preclude States Parties from implementing health measures, in accordance with their relevant national law and obligations under international law, in response to specific public health risks or public health emergencies of international concern, which:

(a) achieve the same or greater level of health protection than WHO recommendations; or

(b) are otherwise prohibited under Article 25, Article 26, paragraphs 1 and 2 of Article 28, Article 30, paragraph 1(c) of Article 31 and Article 33, provided such measures are otherwise consistent with these Regulations.

Such measures shall not be more restrictive of international traffic and not more invasive or intrusive to persons than reasonably available alternatives that would achieve the appropriate level of health protection.

2 In determining whether to implement the health measures referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article or additional health measures under paragraph 2 of Article 23, paragraph 1 of Article 27, paragraph 2 of Article 28 and paragraph 2(c) of Article 31, States Parties shall base their determinations upon:

(a) scientific principles;

(b) available scientific evidence of a risk to human health, or where such evidence is insufficient, the available information including from WHO and other relevant intergovernmental organizations and international bodies; and

(c) any available specific guidance or advice from WHO.

3 A State Party implementing additional health measures referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article which significantly interfere with international traffic shall provide to WHO the public health rationale and relevant scientific information for it. WHO shall share this information with other States Parties and shall share information regarding the health measures implemented. For the purpose of this Article, significant interference generally means refusal of entry or departure of international travellers, baggage, cargo, containers, conveyances, goods, and the like, or their delay, for more than 24 hours.

4 After assessing information provided pursuant to paragraph 3 and 5 of this Article and other relevant information, WHO may request that the State Party concerned reconsider the application of the measures.

5 A State Party implementing additional health measures referred to in paragraphs 1 and 2 of this Article that significantly interfere with international traffic shall inform WHO, within 48 hours of implementation, of such measures and their health rationale unless these are covered by a temporary or standing recommendation.

Text is taken from International Health Regulations (2005)


We explain our conclusion here. First, under Article 43.2, countries cannot implement additional health measures exclusively as a precaution but must rather ground their decision making in “scientific principles”, “scientific evidence”, and “advice from WHO”.

1 Many of the travel restrictions being implemented during the COVID-19 outbreak are not supported by science or WHO. Travel restrictions for these kinds of viruses have been challenged by public health researchers, and WHO has advised against travel restrictions, arguing they cause more harm than good.

Second, under Article 43.1 any additional health measures implemented by countries “shall not be more restrictive of international traffic and not more invasive or intrusive to persons than reasonably available alternatives”.

1 In this case, even if travel restrictions did work, there are so many other more effective measures that countries can take to protect their citizens. WHO has issued COVID-19 technical guidance on several such measures, including risk communication, surveillance, patient management, and screening at ports of entry and exit.

Third, and most importantly, Article 3.1 strictly requires all additional health measures to be implemented “with full respect for the dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms of persons”, which in turn must reflect the international law principles of necessity, legitimacy, and proportionality that govern limitations to and derogations from rights and freedoms. Under no circumstances should public health or foreign policy decisions be based on the racism and xenophobia that are now being directed at Chinese people and those of Asian descent.

Many of the travel restrictions implemented by dozens of countries during the COVID-19 outbreak are therefore violations of the IHR.12 Yet, perhaps even more troubling, is that at least two-thirds of these countries have not reported their additional health measures to WHO,12 which is a further violation of IHR Articles 43.3 and 43.5. Flagrant disregard for the legal requirement to promptly report any additional health measures frustrates WHO's ability to coordinate the world's response to public health emergencies and prevents countries from holding each other accountable for their obligations under the IHR.

Some countries argue that they would rather be safe than sorry. But evidence belies the claim that illegal travel restrictions make countries safer. In the short term, travel restrictions prevent supplies from getting into affected areas, slow down the international public health response, stigmatise entire populations, and disproportionately harm the most vulnerable among us. In the longer term, countries selecting which international laws to follow encourages other countries to do the same, which in turn undermines the broader rules-based world order. Effective global governance is not possible when countries cannot depend on each other to comply with international agreements.

Of course, the IHR is far from perfect. For example, the IHR only governs countries, not corporations and other non-governmental actors. Thus, some countries are finding themselves with de-facto travel restrictions when airlines stop flying to places affected by COVID-19. Additionally, the IHR does not have robust accountability mechanisms for compliance, enforcement, oversight, and transparency.

But the IHR is the legally binding system for protecting people worldwide from the global spread of disease. With more than 2·5 billion people travelling between about 4000 airports every year, future outbreaks are inevitable.

Responses that are anchored in fear, misinformation, racism, and xenophobia will not save us from outbreaks like COVID-19. Upholding the rule of international law is needed now more than ever. Countries can start by rolling back illegal travel restrictions that have already been implemented and by supporting WHO and each other in implementing the IHR.

This research was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research ( grant #312902 ) and the International Collaboration for Capitalizing on Cost-Effective and Life-Saving Commodities (i4C) that is funded through the Research Council of Norway's Global Health & Vaccination Programme (GLOBVAC Project #234608). GLB was previously WHO's Legal Counsel. SD is a member of the WHO research ethics review committee. ME-T reports consulting fees from WHO unrelated to this Comment. LOG and SJH are directors of WHO Collaborating Centres. SJH is additionally a Scientific Director with the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (the Government of Canada's national health research funding agency). We declare no other competing interests. Views and opinions in this consensus statement Comment represent those of the authors writing in their personal and independent academic roles, without any direction from their governments or institutions.
Last edited by chetak on 21 Mar 2020 20:18, edited 1 time in total.
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