Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Arun.prabhu wrote:They did a study a few years back. Shutting down everything delays the virus two weeks and flattens the curve a bit at the cost of massive damage to the economy and no reduction in patient numbers and a possible reduction in deaths. Better to get it over with and get back to work. Shutting down the border completely buys six weeks, which would have helped. Shutting down everything is just plain nuts if you don't have a vaccine. The population isn't going to develop immunity on their own and the damage to the economy ensures there's no positive side to it.

The UK strategy is what the world should be following.
By the time the virus infects 60-80% of the population to get herd immunity, presuming it doesnt mutate into something else in the meantime, how many people die? The latest study from imperial college showed numbers that no country that claims any sense of decency, can risk.

And as Bart pointed out earlier, what will happen to the economy if this virus devastates large sections of the population by the time herd immunity is achieved?

Lockdown buys time and while we don't know if this time will be enough to effect a cure/vaccine, it minimizes the toll on life. A worthwhile decision if only to buy a little extra time for human lives IMHO. Life, more than some sense of Protestant-capitalist work ethic, is well worth it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

US cases just went *down* by 1300 on worldometer? Anybody else notice?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Arun.prabhu wrote:Individual incidents don't matter in statistics unless it's a huge outlier. They even out as they occur at random. The trends remain the same and so, statistically, you can predict how many would have died naturally and make a reasoned call with a state degree of confidence that so many people likely died of ncovid-19.
Mort Walker wrote:
Then that means in India we should report bus accidents that kill 10-12 people as excess due to Corona virus?

Yes, it helps to read every word in a post if one is to articulate a contrary position. My post explicitly used the term 'excess' deaths, what is the difficulty?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

devaraya wrote:
Raveen wrote:

Its old data and already disproven like Cain said
Posting response from Harry Drake to John Ioannidis's;

A response to John Ioannidis's article A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data (March 17, 2020) in which he downplays the severe risks posed by coronavirus pandemic.
On March 17, John Ioannidis published a column in which he downplays descriptions of coronavirusas a “once-in-a-century pandemic”, instead calling the worldwide response “a once-in-a-century datafiasco” [4]. The main thrust of the article, which I address in points (i)-(iii) below, is that we still know very little about the disease, its fatality rate, and the overall risks it poses to public health; and that inface of this uncertainty, we should seek additional data in order to make evidence-based policy decisions. Loannidis’s call for additional evidence and study may be fully appropriate in every other research setting one could imagine. But it is wholly inappropriate for handling dynamic and complex problems in realtime. The article makes no definitive claims, but plants seeds of confusion and sheds plenty of doubtabout the worldwide effort to fight the pandemic. If the viewpoint in Ioannidis’s column were shared byeven a small fraction of the general public or by anyone in a position of authority—president, governor,mayor, school superintendent—its consequences could be severe. The virus would continue to spread indefinitely, infecting tens or hundreds of thousands, further overwhelming the healthcare system, leading to unnecessary deaths and total disaster
https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-10


This is no argument, deductive, inductive or data driven. It is an emotive personal view with no empiricism.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

CRamS wrote:Guys, I am no great epidemiologist, and I support all the precautionary lock-down measures. And in my heart of heart I feel next 2 months or so, this crisis will be over. I could be wrong, but this is my hunch.

Thats why, I cannot stand ass holes like this Ramanan Laxminarayan puking with Burka Bibi that India will see 300M to 500M cases by July and we could see up to 2M deaths. I mean this f!cker should be jailed for spreading this kind of unnecessary panic

https://twitter.com/BDUTT/status/1241389385700052992
CRSji. Maybe a little panic would help some sections of the population who seem to be throwing parties, attending to religious beliefs, and in general, galavanting all over the place.

Not to say that burkhabibi and her ilk should not be jailed of course... :D
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

devaraya wrote:
Raveen wrote:

Its old data and already disproven like Cain said
Posting response from Harry Drake to John Ioannidis's;
The link did not work. Was there any more to his response other than what you posted?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by devaraya »

Cain Marko wrote:
devaraya wrote:
Posting response from Harry Drake to John Ioannidis's;
The link did not work. Was there any more to his response other than what you posted?

Continued from Prev Post.

Loannidis acknowledges the lack of information available in the midst of an evolving situation. In the face of this uncertainty, his instinct is to (i) compare the statistics on coronavirus with the flu, (ii)cite wide uncertainties about the exact values of mortality rate and number of cases and (iii) request additional evidence before deciding how to act further. This is dangerous and potentially deadly. address these three major points below. (The full article is linked in the references.)(i) The comparisons to the flu are unfounded, especially in light of everything coming out of themedical communities and people who’ve recovered from the disease. Even Ioannidis acknowledges, “In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.” No matter how unlikely this may be, it’s bad enough to undermine Ioannidis’s entire argument. As I and many others have written before [2, 3, 5, 6], in the face of a low probability, high consequence outcome, all possible steps must be taken to decrease the probability and mitigate the consequences.(ii) We are operating under severe uncertainty. By Ioannidis’s own admission, the worst-case scenario rivals the 1918 Spanish Flu. In Ioannidis’s best-case scenario, he estimates the U.S. mortality rate to be 0.05%, “lower than seasonal influenza”. He cautions that “locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational.” Under severe uncertainty, it’s natural instinct and common sense to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Ioannidis’s projection of a 0.05% fatality rate instead assumes the best without any protection against the most likely case, let alone the worst case.(iii) Ioannidis wants more data to sharpen estimates of the number of cases and the fatality rate. As of March 17, there have been more than 197,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and nearly 8,000deaths in well over 100 countries worldwide [1]. In reality, there are many more cases, of those without symptoms or who have not been tested. There’s no other way to say this: the exact numbers are irrelevant. Given the severity of what we’ve already seen and the uncertainty of where we might be headed, the prudent approach is most definitely not to wait to sharpen our estimates. If there’s a chance that we’re underestimating cases by a factor of 300 (as Ioannidis alludes), then let’s assume we’re off by 300 and act accordingly. Whatever the case numbers are today, they’re likely to double (or worse) within a week if serious steps aren’t taken. The situation is bad, and it will only get worse if we’re lulled into a false sense of security by Ioannidis and others making similar calls for calm.
∗Rutgers University, Department of Statistics and Biostatistics1
http://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-10
Some may quickly dismiss Ioannidis’s article as wrongheaded and distracting from the real problem. But some will not. Some will be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, as someone pausing to ask critical scientific questions at a time of worldwide panic. Those who don’t appreciate the serious negative consequences of Ioannidis’s article are missing a crucial point. Ioannidis has had a distinguished scientific career which has given him an elevated platform to influence people who make decisions at the highest levels. There’s little doubt that Ioannidis’s opinions are carefully considered, but the opinions expressed in his article are tailored to academic work, not a global crisis. Ioannidis’s column reads like an ordinary academic opinion piece, as it would be written during any other time, about any other topic.It reflects no sense of urgency—in fact, it emphasizes the opposite of urgency—it severely downplays the severity of the circumstances, and it sends the wrong message to anyone who reads it.Ioannidis’s message runs the risk of delaying critical response and desensitizing the public to the real risks we face. For a dynamic and complex problem such as coronavirus, we always want more information, but we have to deal with what we have. This isn’t an academic research project. It’s real life, in real time. In the face of severe uncertainty, we can’t delay action waiting for more evidence or brush off catastrophic risks on grounds that it’s irrational to take drastic countermeasures.
References[1] Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Map. (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).
[2] The Precautionary Principle. (https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Prec ... ciple.html).[3]
H. Crane. Naive Probabilism.Researchers.One, (https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-9),2020.
[4] J. Ioannidis. A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are makingdecisions without reliable data.STAT, March 17, 2020(https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/).
[5] J. Norman.Global Decentralization for Risk Mitigation and security.Researchers.One,(https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-02-15), 2020.
[6] J. Norman, Y. Bar-Yam, and N. Taleb. Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coro-navirus: A Note. (https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pand ... navirus-a-
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raveen »

Arun.prabhu wrote:They did a study a few years back. Shutting down everything delays the virus two weeks and flattens the curve a bit at the cost of massive damage to the economy and no reduction in patient numbers and a possible reduction in deaths. Better to get it over with and get back to work. Shutting down the border completely buys six weeks, which would have helped. Shutting down everything is just plain nuts if you don't have a vaccine. The population isn't going to develop immunity on their own and the damage to the economy ensures there's no positive side to it.

The UK strategy is what the world should be following.
nam wrote:UK Chief scientific adviser understood it may not be possible to stop this infection from running through the population, until the vaccine arrives. It will be ether 1st or 2nd or 3rd wave, but it will run through.

He wanted to make it quicker rather than prolong the whole thing. People are going to die either ways.

I also thought it was a bizzare decision to keep schools open. However after a while, i am now resigned to the inevitable.

Except even the UK isn't following that policy anymore - based on advice from actual scientists and SMEs
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SwamyG »

This is the time when we start projecting our fears and see our biases and pet peeves in tje data.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

SwamyG wrote:This is the time when we start projecting our fears and see our biases and pet peeves in tje data.
Can you be a bit more specific sir? Where do you see these biases? Let's thrash these out as far as possible
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

The World Needs Masks
China has undertaken a mobilization of wartime proportions to expand its output of disposable surgical masks. Daily production soared from about 10 million at the start of February to 115 million at the end of the month, according to the Chinese government.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

Dileep wrote:Wrong assumption. I am sure it is way less than that. Maybe 10%.
kindly cite evidence in your support
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

sanjaykumar wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:Individual incidents don't matter in statistics unless it's a huge outlier. They even out as they occur at random. The trends remain the same and so, statistically, you can predict how many would have died naturally and make a reasoned call with a state degree of confidence that so many people likely died of ncovid-19.

Yes, it helps to read every word in a post if one is to articulate a contrary position. My post explicitly used the term 'excess' deaths, what is the difficulty?
In the Indian context it means little. Excess deaths due to respiratory illness can also translate to other diseases.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

China and the WHO's chief: Hold them both accountable for pandemic


https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... r-pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) last week finally declared the coronavirus from China that rapidly spread across the world a pandemic. Now, with more than 150,000 confirmed cases globally and more than 5,700 deaths, the question is why it took so long for the WHO to perceive what many health officials and governments had identified far earlier.

We believe the organization’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, like China’s Xi Jinping, should be held accountable for recklessly managing this deadly pandemic. Tedros apparently turned a blind eye to what happened in Wuhan and the rest of China and, after meeting with Xi in January, has helped China to play down the severity, prevalence and scope of the COVID-19 outbreak.

From the outset, Tedros has defended China despite its gross mismanagement of the highly contagious disease. As the number of cases and the death toll soared, the WHO took months to declare the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic, even though it had met the criteria of transmission between people, high fatality rates and worldwide spread.

When President Trump took a critical step to stop the coronavirus at U.S. borders by issuing a travel ban as early as Jan. 31, Tedros said widespread travel bans and restrictions were not needed to stop the outbreak and could “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.” He warned that interfering with transportation and trade could harm efforts to address the crisis, and advised other countries not to follow the U.S. lead.

When he should have been focusing on global counter-pandemic efforts, Tedros instead was politicizing the crisis and helping Xi to shirk his responsibility for a series of wrongdoings in addressing the outbreak. Tedros used the WHO platform to defend the Chinese government’s gross violation of human rights. For example, from its first case discovered in November to its Wuhan lockdown, and even until today, China has been dishonest about the coronavirus’s origin and prevalence. People who tried to uncover it were detained or disappeared, their online reports and posts deleted. China has misinformed and misled the world, and Tedros joined this effort by publicly praising China’s “transparency” in battling the spread of the disease.

When Xi ordered Chinese health officials to speed up the development of drugs by using “integrated Chinese traditional herbal medicine and Western medicine,” the WHO’s official publication, “Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19),” made a subtle change. Chinese netizens found a discrepancy between the Chinese and English versions of a list of measures deemed ineffective against COVID-19. The English version listed four items — smoking, wearing multiple masks, taking antibiotics, and traditional herbal remedies. The fourth item was not included in the Chinese version. (Today the English version also has deleted that item.)

China recently pledged $20 million to help the WHO fight the COVID-19 outbreak, for which Tedros thanked Xi. But we note China’s connections to Tedros’s homeland of Ethiopia, now called East Africa’s “Little China” because it has become China’s bridgehead to influence Africa and a key to China’s Belt and Road initiative there. Indeed, China has invested heavily in Ethiopia.

Tedros was elected to his position with the WHO in 2017, despite the fact that he was not trained as a medical doctor and had no global health management experience. A former minister of health and minister of foreign affairs for Ethiopia, Tedros is an executive member of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) political party, which came to power through a struggle in 1991 and has been listed as a perpetrator in the Global Terrorism Database. After he became the WHO’s chief, critics questioned Tedros’s attempt to appoint then-Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe as a WHO goodwill ambassador.

The coronavirus pandemic has shown that Tedros is not fit to lead the WHO. Because of his leadership, the world may have missed a critical window to halt the pandemic or mitigate its virulence. The world is now battling rising infections and many countries have imposed restrictions. As leader of the WHO, Tedros should be held accountable for his role in mismanaging efforts to control the spread of the virus.
Last edited by IndraD on 22 Mar 2020 06:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

sudarshan wrote:US cases just went *down* by 1300 on worldometer? Anybody else notice?
No US is in Bronze Medal position.

total: 25,896 new today: +6,513 total deaths: 316
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

There is a 10 fold increase in the obituary pages in the papers from Lombardy whilst the confirmed viral death rate has definitely increased. So applying Occam's razor or the law of parsimony, we conclude that all those deaths in the elderly/nursing home patients during this pandemic were due to falls from bicycles.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

sanjaykumar wrote:There is a 10 fold increase in the obituary pages in the papers from Lombardy whilst the confirmed viral death rate has definitely increased. So applying Occam's razor or the law of parsimony, we conclude that all those deaths in the elderly/nursing home patients during this pandemic were due to falls from bicycles.
How do you they weren't from unicycles? And how is that relevant to extrapolating cases in India?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ricky_v »

fond memories
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Mort Walker wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:There is a 10 fold increase in the obituary pages in the papers from Lombardy whilst the confirmed viral death rate has definitely increased. So applying Occam's razor or the law of parsimony, we conclude that all those deaths in the elderly/nursing home patients during this pandemic were due to falls from bicycles.
How do you they weren't from unicycles? And how is that relevant to extrapolating cases in India?

You may be right. The field of epidemiology needs your grace.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

One technical pooch. This is US specific. CDC says there are more than 15,219 cases. The footnote says that “Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020”. What is a presumptive positive case? Is it like you are guilty unless found innocent? Ones under investigation are over 90%.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^Presumptive positive is that the patient is showing all the symptoms (respiratory and fever), but hasn't been tested. They are presumed positive. As time goes on and more testing was done, those numbers probably became actual positive.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SriKumar »

^^^ Not really. PResumptive positive means that the patient has been tested and the test came out positive, but the test result is to be confirmed by the CDC (not sure if they re-test a portion sample or just look at the prior test results and confirm). https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020 ... cond-case/
(I hope the CDC does not need to re-check each and every test in the US at this stage! Other lab tests are not yet reliable?)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Nalla Baalu »

CDC has done away with the need to validate test from about a week ago.

CDC testing page
SriKumar wrote:^^^ Not really. PResumptive positive means that the patient has been tested and the test came out positive, but the test result is to be confirmed by the CDC (not sure if they re-test a portion sample or just look at the prior test results and confirm). https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020 ... cond-case/
(I hope the CDC does not need to re-check each and every test in the US at this stage! Other lab tests are not yet reliable?)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

Viral load very much matters. If you're going to paw and smooch twenty people a day, in a few days you'll build up a hefty load. In Spain, it seems, you go kissing every female you know, whom you meet (or maybe you don't even need to know her). Italy and France are similar. Pretty sure the old codgers in those countries got together in the middle ages and came up with that scheme. You got to kiss a grandma or two per day as well, but that's a price they were willing to pay for the occasional windfall.

With any toxin, the mantra is - "dosage matters." Low doses, sufficiently below threshold level, are often even beneficial. Maybe that's the way to build immunity, have sub-toxic exposures to the virus (that's one form of vaccination). But there's a couple of devils in those details - how much is safe, and of course this varies by individual.

Right now worldometer definitely looks like an Olympics medals tally. Hope there's a reasonable limit to the total number of medals.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

sudarshan wrote:Pretty sure the old codgers in those countries got together in the middle ages and came up with that scheme. You got to kiss a grandma or two per day as well, but that's a price they were willing to pay for the occasional windfall.
:mrgreen: That is funny! ROFL!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Arun.prabhu »

Follow thine one advice. Was I replying to you?
sanjaykumar wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:Individual incidents don't matter in statistics unless it's a huge outlier. They even out as they occur at random. The trends remain the same and so, statistically, you can predict how many would have died naturally and make a reasoned call with a state degree of confidence that so many people likely died of ncovid-19.

Yes, it helps to read every word in a post if one is to articulate a contrary position. My post explicitly used the term 'excess' deaths, what is the difficulty?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

Guys no need to get huffy during this crisis.

Need to chill.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ricky_v »

Image
Anthony Costello FMedSci FRCPCH FRCP (born 20 February 1953) is a British paediatrician. Until 2015 Costello was Professor of International Child Health and Director of the Institute for Global Health at the University College London. Costello was most notable for his work on improving survival among mothers and their newborn infants in poor populations of developing countries. From 2015 to 2018 he was director of maternal, child and adolescent health at the World Health Organisation in Geneva.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Arun.prabhu »

They are going to get infected anyways. There is no immunity except by genetic quirk or if you have already had the disease. How are you going to save the people? By forcing them to stay within their houses? For how long? Farmers have to be out in the fields. Grocery shops have to be manned. Medicines produced. Power produced. Trucks maintained. Borders guarded. How is a daily wage labourer to survive for weeks of being stuck in their house when his/her family depends on that wage to put that money on the table. You aren’t considering the economic side of the coin. We would need a month or two or shutdown to bring down the numbers. With fourteen day quarantine, 64 out of 10000 carriers get through into the normal population, starting the cycle all over again.

As for saving lives, does India have the beds and ventilators and ICU and critical care capacity to accommodate all the serious and critically ill and still cater to the normal flow of serious and critically ill patients? No, then we are going to have triage anyways and let a lot of people die. As Italy is doing now. As the whole world must once the hospital infrastructure is overwhelmed. So how many people do you think ruining the economy will save from death by disease and triage and how many do you think will be lost because of financial ruin?
Cain Marko wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:They did a study a few years back. Shutting down everything delays the virus two weeks and flattens the curve a bit at the cost of massive damage to the economy and no reduction in patient numbers and a possible reduction in deaths. Better to get it over with and get back to work. Shutting down the border completely buys six weeks, which would have helped. Shutting down everything is just plain nuts if you don't have a vaccine. The population isn't going to develop immunity on their own and the damage to the economy ensures there's no positive side to it.

The UK strategy is what the world should be following.
By the time the virus infects 60-80% of the population to get herd immunity, presuming it doesnt mutate into something else in the meantime, how many people die? The latest study from imperial college showed numbers that no country that claims any sense of decency, can risk.

And as Bart pointed out earlier, what will happen to the economy if this virus devastates large sections of the population by the time herd immunity is achieved?

Lockdown buys time and while we don't know if this time will be enough to effect a cure/vaccine, it minimizes the toll on life. A worthwhile decision if only to buy a little extra time for human lives IMHO. Life, more than some sense of Protestant-capitalist work ethic, is well worth it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

arun.prabhu, that was not directed at you.

_________________________________________________

With any toxin, the mantra is - "dosage matters." Low doses, sufficiently below threshold level, are often even beneficial. Maybe that's the way to build immunity, have sub-toxic exposures to the virus (that's one form of vaccination). But there's a couple of devils in those details - how much is safe, and of course this varies by individual.

Hormesis may perhaps work in some cases (Mithridates at least), HOWEVER this is a virus that by definition can make multiple copies of itself given the appropriate cell machinery. All you need is ONE virus. In other words do not try this at home.
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Post by Arun.prabhu »

And that is still 92% less than what China needs daily assuming they don’t dispose of the masks every six hours as recommended but use one per day. Which is impossible because you are supposed to throw away a mask if you sneeze or cough into it, if it becomes wet, if you touch it with your fingers or if you take it off...
vera_k wrote:The World Needs Masks
China has undertaken a mobilization of wartime proportions to expand its output of disposable surgical masks. Daily production soared from about 10 million at the start of February to 115 million at the end of the month, according to the Chinese government.
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Post by Arun.prabhu »

My apologies for being an easily offended boot. Forgive me.
sanjaykumar wrote:arun.prabhu, that was not directed at you.

_________________________________________________

With any toxin, the mantra is - "dosage matters." Low doses, sufficiently below threshold level, are often even beneficial. Maybe that's the way to build immunity, have sub-toxic exposures to the virus (that's one form of vaccination). But there's a couple of devils in those details - how much is safe, and of course this varies by individual.

Hormesis may perhaps work in some cases (Mithridates at least), HOWEVER this is a virus that by definition can make multiple copies of itself given the appropriate cell machinery. All you need is ONE virus. In other words do not try this at home.
Arun.prabhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Arun.prabhu »

Too bad then. The vaccine is not going to be approved within the next couple of months and Enough can’t be produced to vaccinate the whole population in that period. We are going to bring the economy to a standstill to save a few tens of thousands.
Raveen wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:They did a study a few years back. Shutting down everything delays the virus two weeks and flattens the curve a bit at the cost of massive damage to the economy and no reduction in patient numbers and a possible reduction in deaths. Better to get it over with and get back to work. Shutting down the border completely buys six weeks, which would have helped. Shutting down everything is just plain nuts if you don't have a vaccine. The population isn't going to develop immunity on their own and the damage to the economy ensures there's no positive side to it.

The UK strategy is what the world should be following.

Except even the UK isn't following that policy anymore - based on advice from actual scientists and SMEs
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Karan M wrote:Some good news
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... BkjcZV2t2I

No shortage of masks, sanitisers: Centre amid Covid-19 outbreak
Union minister of state for chemicals and fertilisers Mansukh Mandaviya briefed media persons regarding the decisions taken by the Cabinet such as adequate availability of the items that are needed to combat the Covid-19 outbreak.
The Centre on Saturday emphasised that the country was prepared to meet the challenges posed by the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak and there is no shortage of key items such as protective masks, sanitisers and tablets that can boost immunity.

“Over 1.5 crore masks are being produced daily, santisers and tablets that can boost immunity are all available in ample quantity,” said Mandaviya.

“We are ready to meet all the requirements,” he added.

“The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority [NPPA] carried out an assessment last week regarding the requirement of masks. Over 1.5 crore are being manufactured daily by 112 units. There is no shortage of masks and sanitisers. Over 2 crore tablets that can boost immunity are also available. We have the capacity to fight the outbreak,” the minister said.
PPE is required first by docs, then us.

So, 1.5 Million masks daily.
Saar - that's 15 million masks daily (1.5 crore). I only hope he meant N95 masks, the article is not clear on that point.
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Fifteen million is a lot of masks but I do not think they are N95 masks. It needs special fabric and that may be in short supply. India already imposed a price ceiling on both masks and sanitizers.
Arun.prabhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Arun.prabhu »

From my friend who manufactures surgical accessories in madurai: raw material cost of elastic bands and the material used for the filter has shot through the roof. Tel fold or more in the form of the latter. India does not produce the material and we used to import from China. China controls 80% of the world market for that material but they aren’t exporting now. So we import from Indonesia and IIRC Germany or England. Setting up a plant would cost 200 crores or more and there don’t seem to be any takers so far and the government isn’t doing anything either. When Our sources are forbidden to export, you can imagine what’d happen here...
saip wrote:Fifteen million is a lot of masks but I do not think they are N95 masks. It needs special fabric and that may be in short supply. India already imposed a price ceiling on both masks and sanitizers.
syam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by syam »

Everything has price. I guess this is the price we have to pay for the globalization and cheap chinese products. we could have been much better prepared if ccp is honest with their situation. even as the world plunging into darkness, they still keeping the data to themselves. do they realize their days are over and going into negative with each passing day?

cholaji will say the global systems will survive. no system is worth the cost of humanity itself. we paid for it. Good thing is we have 1.4 billion people. I am sure even at worst case scenario, at least 500 millions will survive. grim and battle hardened 500 million. It's upto individual and families to battle it out.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

The best is not to expect mercy. We did nothing to help the millions who die yearly of treatable diseases like malaria and tuberculosis, or gastrointestinal infectious diseases, or child malnutrition.

We were comfortable and had no pity. Why expect any from the planet now?
Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Suraj wrote:
syam wrote: paste - Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 - in google box. the first result will be her twitter account.
The problem with the claim is that cell operators sweep their SIM records regularly for inactive numbers that are removed in bulk. Very little can be inferred from a few million change in numbers - both China and India have subscriber counts north of 1 billion now, and both have periodically scaled down numbers when invalid sims were removed from the counts.
This is possible but does not explain why it did not happen over the past 2 years. The numbers are consistently increasing since 2017. And then the drop of 8 million. And that too exactly coinciding with the outbreak?

What am I missing?
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