Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
kvraghav
BRFite
Posts: 888
Joined: 17 Apr 2008 11:47
Location: Some where near the equator

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 22 Mar 2020 12:49

Looking at the number of middle East returned people infections, either they were clubbed with lots of Chinese labor or middle eastern countries are hiding their numbers.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 507
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 22 Mar 2020 12:52

kvraghav wrote:Looking at the number of middle East returned people infections, either they were clubbed with lots of Chinese labor or middle eastern countries are hiding their numbers.


Thats where they go to learn advanced skills of pelting stones, molotov cocktails and general nonsense. Maybe they have cheene instructors who gave them this gift.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 445
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 22 Mar 2020 12:59

Is that seven hundred for the entire population? I knew that I had assumed all things were equal between India and the other countries - but did not have the numbers to do more than a very bad rough calculation - and that the survival stability of the virus is going to be crap in india and that R0 would go down accordingly, but your numbers, if anywhere near close to real, highlight how badly we appear to be overreacting.

Deans wrote:The fatality rate for the 20-49 age group (worldwide) is 0.32 %
Assuming half of all cases are too mild to be reported, the fatality rate is 0.16%
Excluding smokers, it would be approx 0.14 %

Data on deaths show that in warmer and/or more humid countries, the death rate is lower. There is also one study suggesting that the R0 in Indian heath & humidity conditions (see the `cut the clutter' youtube video) is lower by about 15% If we use the same percentage reduction (which I'm doing for want of anything better), we have a 0.12% fatality rate (1 in 800). 1 in 200 cases (25% of fatalities) needed ICU/Ventilator support. (approx 3/4 of those in ICU /ventilator support recovered including the above 50 age group).

Assuming a 300 million urban population (in cities and large towns) that can be potentially exposed to the virus - 83% are under 50.
Given a infection rate of 400 per million reporting to a hospital (no warm country has crossed 100 and Hubei is about 400) we have, in a stage 3 epidemic scenario 120,000 hospital cases, with about 700 deaths.

kvraghav
BRFite
Posts: 888
Joined: 17 Apr 2008 11:47
Location: Some where near the equator

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 22 Mar 2020 13:05

Let's also remember all hot countries are doing well when compared to cold weathered ones.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22516
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 22 Mar 2020 13:12

first, consider this before reading the article quoted

Authenticity unknown. Origin unknown. Probability cannot be ruled out.
A must worth reading

COVID 19 a Bio weapon.

Threat factors are panning out is indicative that COVID is a bio weapon.

1. Initial info curved by China.
2. Then media release that it was caused by eating bats.
3. Release in Wuhan where they have a bio weapon facility.
4. Game plan was already in place.
5. Multiple 1000 bed prefab hospitals set up in a very short time. Thousands of medical personnel mobilised.
6. Huge quantity of Special eqpt mobilised in very short time.
7. Intense measures used to control population.
8. By 20 March COVID Controlled in China.

Obviously there was a battle plan in place and that was activated. On the other hand rest of the world has been handed a sucker punch to the plexus.

Major economic setback has been inflicted all economic activity has been crushed, as world nations struggle to cope.

Now China will emerge as a major economic power. At low cost it has inflicted a major blow and is many steps closer to world dominance, which is its aim. A country which could kill over 5 million of its own ppl in its cultural revolution, it not going to bat an eyelid over a few thousand dead

If it has to sacrifice a couple of thousand, as has happened now.

The Chinese WHO play was to ensure that export of virus to other countries carries on unhindered. So no pandemic declaration, to embargo on flights,no screening. Now the entire world is locked down, less China.

The Chinese believe in total dominance not co existence like our civilisation. All their actions are oriented towards projection of hard power, military or economic. Unlike India which has strong belief in power of soft power.

Now we wait for the next Chinese moves, as we struggle to overcome the major damage that the CHINESE VIRUS has inflicted on us in terms of morale and confidence current and future economic state.

Work must unite to tackle the contagion and the Chinese game plan . China must pay
#coronavirus
#CoronavirusPandemic #ChinaVirus

In the army they teach you to look out for ‘battle indicators’. They are a pointer to the adversary’s intentions and plans. An examination of battle indicators helps identifying en’s future steps and in formulating our own counter plan

Battle Indicators:

1. Unusual suppression of info and execution of a deception plan. All measures were taken by China to suppress info leak on COVID19 to include expulsion of western journalists.
A deception plan was activated, that it was a bat eating related issue emanating from local meat market. China failed to share info with world till it was too late to prevent spread.

2. China leaned heavily on WHO to prevent it being declared a pandemic.
Lack of restrictions thereby lead to spread across the world. Delayed declaration is akin to shutting the stable door once the horse has bolted.


3. Deployment of multiple 1000 bed hospitals. While it is a commendable feat, it is not possible without deep preparation.
No country has such prefab hospitals lying stored around to be deploy in ten days flat. We are struggling to create isolation wards out of soldiers' barrack accommodations. The Chinese response was too pat and army based.


4. Special equipment and clothing. No country or army has hazmat suits and other spl eqpt, robots etc readily available in the numbers observed on media in China. Even their defogging personnel were in hazmat suits. Compare this with rest of the world.

5. Population control measures. Very strict measures were implemented. It was a planned deployment of resources based on police and army. Force was used ruthlessly as what was apparent in media. This is not a panic resultant administrative response. There was a plan in place.

6. Now that the virus is having a free run across the world, China having stamped it down, is now in pole position. Economies will suffer immensely.
China will step in to support and build up markets for its goods. If western leadership weakens, they will not be able to resist


The Chinese resurgence. Western power projection both military and economic, will suffer. China benefits.

There has to be a coordinated counter plan based on mutual support.

This may not be the last bio weapon.




A disaster Made in China



A disaster Made in China

Arvind Kumar Seshadri Chari
March 22, 2020,

What we are witnessing is worse than a war situation.


What began as isolated cases of a hitherto unknown respiratory problem in a remote town of Wuhan in China’s Hubei province is now a global epidemic. It is not only killing people but also devouring economies, rattling governments, unsettling societies and threatening to become a gigantic disaster of unmanageable proportions. Even the two World Wars did not probably pile up a calamity of this magnitude. Truly speaking, Covid-19, both overtly and covertly, has been achieving all the objectives of a warfare. It has posed serious challenges to global peace and stability. The impact on global economy is also being witnessed.

Almost all the commercial capitals of the world are shut. Stock markets are in a pathetic condition. India’s commercial capital is in no better condition.

What we are witnessing is worse than a war situation. In a conventional war we know our enemies, the tools of war and the strengths and weaknesses of the adversary. In this new war, Novel Coronavirus, Covid-19, we don’t know the strength of the enemy, we are unfamiliar with the tools of combat and worst is that we have no insulation against the onslaught. This enemy will remain invisible but at the same time the place at which it originated, Wuhan, will remain a part of the discourse, especially on how it originated.

As suggested by a section of the strategic community, what we are witnessing today is nothing short of a biological warfare, a covert aggression and non-conventional war. Day after day the seriousness of the situation is getting clearer but hardly any solution is available. The Prime Minister’s address to the nation indicated some solutions, but they were all preventive in nature and more or less sounded like preparing for a greater and more virulent attack.

But if this is serious, more seems to be coming yet. The antidote to the pandemic may be found sooner or later but not before it takes its toll. But the real intensity of the pandemic will be felt when the global economy implodes.

As reports suggest, it is evident that the virus first hit a few people in a small town in China’s Hubei province. Instead of controlling its spread, the local authorities silenced the whistle blower doctor and allowed infected people to travel all over the world. It is too early to concur with the strategic community that the origin and the spread of Covid-19 should be seen as part of an unconventional warfare. While the ultimate aim of a conventional war is to destroy the enemy’s ability to exist as a strong power and stand in competition with the contender, in the case of non-conventional warfares, the strategy is to overpower the competitor or enemy and achieve the military objectives of paralysing the enemy’s capability to fight. In modern times, when economic strength and clout are as powerful as military capabilities, China’s business strategy does not seem to be very different from its military strategy. The US-China trade engagement had all the trappings of a major military conflict, and hence, is referred to as a trade war.

China had practically become the production centre of the world. Now after the “Chinese Virus” no country will be able to resume normal businesses with China. While the Chinese PR agencies are on an overdrive to shun the tag of “Made in China Virus”, a full scale war of words has erupted, strongly propelled by none other than the President of the US, Donald Trump.

“I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning, including my very early decision to close the ‘borders’ from China against the wishes of almost all…”, Trump has said. When a reporter described this as racist, Trump declared in unequivocal terms that “Because it comes from China. It’s not racist at all. No, not at all. It comes from China. That’s why. It comes from China. I want to be accurate.”

But the US is also gearing up to the impending recession by announcing a string of economic measures to boost the economy like massive tax concessions for the salaried class, a $50 billion bailout package for the airline industry, another $250 billion fund for the small scale industry. There are plans to infuse funds into the healthcare system and provide extra back-up for meeting the requirements of unemployment doles that are sure to go up in the next few months as industry will need to tighten cut corners by reducing employment.

If the world’s largest economy is preparing for a future shock, the Indian economy will need much more than knee-jerk reactions. The Prime Minister has constituted a Covid-19 Economic Revival Task Force. It is too early to comment on it, but such a task force will have to employ extraordinary tools considering the extraordinarily serious situation.

It is difficult to appreciate the statement of the Union Minister of State for Finance that “Covid-19 will have no adverse impact on Indian economy”. This statement has no validation and substantiation through rational means. The year 2020 has been a non starter for the Indian economy. Even Budget 2020 is not helping the revival of the manufacturing sector. The Indian economy’s trajectory is already showing signs of slowing down.

All over the world the consumer market will soon run out of goods and commodities and start looking for production centres. Countries will find it difficult to go back to trade with China with the same ease and confidence with which they did so far. In their search for alternative source India will surely be a best bet. It is, therefore, imperative on the part of the government to think out of the box, use unconventional economic methods to boost industrial production, especially those of the small and medium scale units. India would require to act proactively and come up with a plan to void the gap created by China.

The debate on China being the main fulcrum of this outbreak will not stop. The dominant view that Wuhan Institute of Virology remains the main source of Covid-19 outbreak will perhaps need more evidence and rationale for claiming the current pandemic to be some sort of a biological warfare. Nevertheless, the objectives of a warfare are being realised, impacting all and creating a lose-lose situation. The emerging situations though seem to be a manifestation of a well articulated strategy by China to gain maximum advantages, but has gone out of their control, which has led to a great disaster across the globe.

Dr Arvind Kumar is a Professor of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Manipal. Seshadri Chari is a well known political commentator and strategic analyst.
Last edited by chetak on 22 Mar 2020 13:15, edited 1 time in total.

Dileep
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5821
Joined: 04 Apr 2005 08:17
Location: Dera Mahab Ali धरा महाबलिस्याः درا مهاب الي

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Dileep » 22 Mar 2020 13:13

sudarshan wrote:
Dileep wrote:I read that Chloroquine shows some indication of fighting the virus.

When I was a kid, there was widespread use of this medicine to pre-empt Malaria. Advertisements like "Fever? Maybe Malaria!! Take Chloroquine" on the back of regular "Inland Letter Cards" of postal service. In Malayalam!! People used to get it liberally from the govt health centers and special extension centres under the National Malaria Eradication programme.

Now, why can't we all take that? The medicine have a half life of more than a month. Even if it 'slows down' the virus, it will help healthy individuals to eliminate the virus load, and stop the pandemic.

Why can't we all?


You know it's toxic? Hydroxychloroquine (seems to be a metabolic byproduct of chloroquine) seems to be less toxic, but I guess also less effective. Like somebody posted before (how true it is, I don't know), apparently one of the side effects is increased cancer. You don't just take it on a whim, is my guess.


Then what about the massive National Malaria Eradication Programme, and the liberal recommendation even for Fever?. I am not making up the advertisement. I have seen it myself, and seen people taking it. I am sure I too were given it from the govt health centre.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 445
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 22 Mar 2020 13:26

All the bioweaponry in the world cannot overcome China's horrible geographical location wrt to competition. And if America thinks that the Chinese released a bioweapon intentionally and helped it spread across the globe, they'll nuke china until it glows. And so will we and the Russians.

But regardless of how the virus got out, Chinese boorishness and barbarianism is out on full display and if there is one bright thing in this whole stinking mess, it's that China's day as the world's factory are numbered. No one except Chinese client states will trust them. Certainly none of the big players will and that includes India, Japan, America and every one else whom China could never afford to fight openly.

chetak wrote:first, consider this before reading the article quoted


Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1271
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 22 Mar 2020 13:51

Arun.prabhu wrote:Is that seven hundred for the entire population? I knew that I had assumed all things were equal between India and the other countries - but did not have the numbers to do more than a very bad rough calculation - and that the survival stability of the virus is going to be crap in india and that R0 would go down accordingly, but your numbers, if anywhere near close to real, highlight how badly we appear to be overreacting.

Deans wrote:


Arun ji, yes 700 for the entire population. I have started with Barkha's doomsday scenario of 300 million exposed to the virus (not infected) and then looked at existing data of hospital cases and fatalities by age group. Of course I have made assumption, but at the end of it, I am more reassured that I was listening to expert analysis. However, If the rate of new cases in Europe /US does not flatten after a week (as I assume it will), all bets are off.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1271
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 22 Mar 2020 14:14

If the age distribution of the Italian population was the same as India, their deaths would have been over 70% less !
99% of the Italian dead had a serious pre-existing health condition. Half of them multiple & serious conditions. Quite possibly in India, their
deaths would be attributed to other causes (as it is being done in Germany).
Age + the pre-existing condition would have killed most of the Italian corona victims anyway.

The median age of a dead person in Italy is 80.5 and infected person 63. China's median age of an infected person was 46
Given India's average age of 26 (37 in China and 47 in Italy), our age distribution of infected people in hospital should be below 40, giving them
a fatality rate of around 0.25% (0.32 for 20-49 age group). India would also be slightly less due to a lower proportion of smokers and higher
temperature and humidity ( there are lower death rates in all warm countries so far, adjusting for age).

Only 1.7% of India's population is above 75 (15% in Italy)

Back of envelope stuff, but something to be more upbeat about.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1438
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 22 Mar 2020 15:02

Assuming Whole Indian population infected over 1-3 years. 1400 Million

Say, 50% get disease ie 700 Million

80% get mild version, for which no medication required, hence treatment will be required by 140 Million

20% Require hospitalization of 10 days, around 28million

Hence around 7 lakh to 2 lakh beds required, assuming disease spread over 1-3 years.

1%-5% of 28million pass away, Around 3 lakh to 15 lakhs over 1 to 3 years

Ie death rate of 300 to 4000 per day. Which is a minor fraction of Italy, comparing the populations. Keeping in view potential death rate, We will need around 50,000 to 150,000 ventilators.

If Choroquine, Azithromycin, Zinc combination works immediately or vaccine invented within 6 months then death rate would be negligible.

In my personal view, applying Italy scenario, on Indian demographics, will give us around 2000 deaths per day, requirement of 2 lakh beds and around 10,000 ventilators.

Again if drugs are even partially effective then 500 deaths per day, 50,000 beds and 5,000 ventilators. Which is well within our current capacity. This is the worst possible scenario and nothing different from ordinary flu which world has been facing for decades.

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1652
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 22 Mar 2020 15:25

There are many Indians over she 50 with pre existing health conditions and coupled with lack of ventilators, we should anticipate a higher than 1% death rate.

Reducing the spread is the key. If hospitals are overwhelmed, the thousands of non corona ICU cases would have to go untreated multiplying the calamity.

Rsatchi
BRFite
Posts: 730
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rsatchi » 22 Mar 2020 15:45

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east
Another incident of desi 'pig headedness'
Do these people understand that going back :
a. they will not comply with quarantine guidelines
b. put a large population at risk

siddhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 66
Joined: 16 Aug 2016 16:02

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby siddhu » 22 Mar 2020 15:54



IIT, Delhi develops new method to detect COVID-19 positive case
Last edited by siddhu on 22 Mar 2020 16:04, edited 1 time in total.

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17006
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 22 Mar 2020 16:04

Lockdown in Kolkata and all municipal towns from tomorrow evening(4pm) according to Nabanna.

Circular from Govt. of WB is yet to issue.
All emergency services shall be available including Grocery shops, Milk, Water, Medicine, All fair price shop operated by the State Government under the Public Distribution System (PDS).

Via WhatsApp

Nabanna is the state secretariat.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1271
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 22 Mar 2020 16:05

schinnas wrote:There are many Indians over she 50 with pre existing health conditions and coupled with lack of ventilators, we should anticipate a higher than 1% death rate.

Reducing the spread is the key. If hospitals are overwhelmed, the thousands of non corona ICU cases would have to go untreated multiplying the calamity.


Most Indians above 60, who die currently do not see a hospital and when they do, most (if they die of pneumonia, diabetes, heart failure) will not be checked for a presence of Corona, nor would they take up an ICU bed for more than a day. So, the question is weather space capacity at our hospitals plus newly created capacity - i.e beds (for the 80% corona cases that won't reach ICU stage), ICU beds and ventilators will be enough. If we work on a war footing starting yesterday, I believe the answer is yes.

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1652
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 22 Mar 2020 16:31

No..the current policy is anybody in ICU will be checked for covid19. A recent 38 yr old in Bihar who died of kidney issues was also tested and confirmed to have Covid19 thought he wasn't very symptomatic. He is now added to Covid19 death counts.

The access of elderly to hospitals differ from state to state. In TN, for example, it's very rare for a person to die before being taken to hospital thanks to cheap ambulance service.

Only very old who are on death bed don't get taken to hospital..

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1652
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 22 Mar 2020 16:36

That said, Dean's, the situation is not as dire as you have rightly said. I differ in the death percentage.

The pre-existing conditions, kidney issues, high BP and diabetes are very high in India among those above 50. The mortality rate used for those above 75 may need to be applied to India for those above 60.

Ventilator availability is the issue. Creating beds is something we can do on war footing. Just by making college hostels into makeshift hospitals, we can add hundreds of thousands of beds and isolation rooms in a few weeks.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1271
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 22 Mar 2020 16:46

schinnas wrote:No..the current policy is anybody in ICU will be checked for covid19. A recent 38 yr old in Bihar who died of kidney issues was also tested and confirmed to have Covid19 thought he wasn't very symptomatic. He is now added to Covid19 death counts.

The access of elderly to hospitals differ from state to state. In TN, for example, it's very rare for a person to die before being taken to hospital thanks to cheap ambulance service.

Only very old who are on death bed don't get taken to hospital..


While I agree, I would add that TN and Kerala have the best healthcare in India. In a lot of the country a dying person might make it to the PHC / Community health centre or District hospital. I'm not sure even the latter will test for Corona - though with the new testing rules in place, some of them will. The disease is mostly killing the very old, who as you say often don't get taken to hospital.

Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3284
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Tanaji » 22 Mar 2020 16:50

Section 144 is in effect Maharashtra wide

Usual stuff is exempted. Rail and bus traffic suspended inter state

Sridhar K
BRFite
Posts: 821
Joined: 12 Sep 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sridhar K » 22 Mar 2020 16:59

When I was in Dubai, .business was as usual with tourist arriving as late as 10th March. There were rumours that the Govt was hiding the actual cases and there were isolation wards and camps already functioning .Being dependent on tourism, it was rumoured that they were putting a brave face. This was after Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi started closing their airports.

Then they closed the schools, malls, stopped giving visa but DxB was operating flights across the globe. While many cases of CoVid in India came via Dubai, perhaps transit passengers from EU, life in Dubai was normal until the second week of March. my business visa was.expiring and I had to prepone the return by a week to night of 15th. UAE was not in the list of countries needing quarantine and I self quarantined nevertheless. Immigration was checking my travel record to see if I had travelled elsewhere. Few peaceful guys were caught by customs smuggling precious stones. Even I was asked to go through red channel.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 397
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 22 Mar 2020 17:15

Gyan wrote:Again if drugs are even partially effective then 500 deaths per day, 50,000 beds and 5,000 ventilators. Which is well within our current capacity. This is the worst possible scenario and nothing different from ordinary flu which world has been facing for decades.


At some point of time we may have to choose between personal health or economic health or financial health.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3579
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 22 Mar 2020 17:15

As i expected, 75 districts in the country, which reported Chinese Virus has been locked down.

This will allow us to carry out local testing and isolation.

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2303
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 22 Mar 2020 17:17

Arun.prabhu wrote:Surprise. It’s on the AIIMS recommended drug list. And it’s poisonous if you take many doses at once or give a full dose to a child. Children aren’t at risk of death from this disease and so wouldn’t be given the drug anyways. As for the dosage used in malaria, you need 500gms cumulative of chloroquine phosphate and 1000gms of hydroxychloroquine before you go blind. That is a 1000 doses for the former and 2500 doses for the latter btw.

All the chloroquine is poison news I’ve read are from Chinese client states - Nigeria, Pakistan et al - or presumably paid chinese shills. If you get sick, go to your doctor and if he/she thinks you are at risk of developing serious form of the disease or have developed it, he’ll recommend a course of either of the two drugs AIIMS have recommended. Follow instructions and don’t second guess your doctor and don’t self-medicate.


DrRatnadip wrote:Chloroquine acts by increasing pH of lysozomes.. It is commonly used for viral illnesses in India.. It has significant anti inflammatory and immunomodulator properties which might help in fighting COVID 19 infection.. It is fairly safe in routinely used doses..


Thanks for the correction.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3793
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 22 Mar 2020 17:18

This is BIG!!

Indian Railways to shut down all passenger operations for the rest of the month

All passenger, express trains cancelled till March 31: Railways - IANS via TNIE, Published: 22nd March 2020 01:30 PM | Last Updated: 22nd March 2020 01:35 PM

Only goods trains will run from March 22 midnight till March 31 midnight.

NEW DELHI: In an unprecedented move, the railways on Sunday announced suspension of all its passenger services from March 22 midnight to March 31 midnight and said only goods trains will run during the said period.

The railways had already trimmed down its services on Friday by cancelling a majority of trains.

However, it had allowed all trains that had already started the journey to continue.

According to a new order issued by the railways, only goods trains will run from March 22 midnight to March 31 midnight.

"However, bare minimum suburban services and the Kolkata Metro Rail service will continue till March 22 midnight.

Thereafter, these services will also be stopped till March 31 midnight," a spokesperson of the Indian Railways said.

On Sunday, the total number of Covid-19 patients crossed 300 marks.

In view of 'Janata Curfew', the Indian Railways had already decided to cancel the long-distance trains originating between 4 a.m. and 10 pm. The railways has also cancelled all passengers trains across the country.

By Saturday, the railways had cancelled 245 pairs of trains across the country and also stopped providing blankets in the air-conditioned coaches.


India itself is going on lockdown.

Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2303
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_P » 22 Mar 2020 17:45

<OT> Enthusiastic clapping, cheering, banging of utensils, bells etc. Started in my Mumbai colony from 4.55 PM itself. Snooty neighbours, feuding cross-colony waalas all joined in. And their pet dogs joined in whole-hearted too, then supported ably by the colony mongrels :) Who would have thought to see (and hear) such a day. This too shall pass..</OT>

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13920
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 22 Mar 2020 17:52

Not sure how true this is ...

https://twitter.com/alessabocchi/status ... 4920081409
Alessandra @alessabocchi

Many have asked why Italy has a higher death rate from Covid19 (7.9%) compared to other countries (3.4% global average). It's not because the population is "older", as many speculate. Japan has a higher median age than Italy, and Japan's peak death rate was 3.6%. The reasons are:
1) Italy is also measuring deaths co-caused by the coronavirus. Most other countries only register deaths exclusively caused by the virus. China, Germany and South Korea, for example, do not measure deaths of people with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid19.

India seems to have adopted this approach for counting with the Bihar case.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13920
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 22 Mar 2020 17:55

Indian continue to flout home quarantine rules ...

https://twitter.com/NewIndianXpress/sta ... 6799740930
The New Indian Express @NewIndianXpress

Fifteen people with home quarantine stamps on their hands were detained in Mumbai's sprawling Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus by railway security personnel.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3793
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 22 Mar 2020 17:56

Manish_P wrote:<OT> Enthusiastic clapping, cheering, banging of utensils, bells etc. Started in my Mumbai colony from 4.55 PM itself. Snooty neighbours, feuding cross-colony waalas all joined in. And their pet dogs joined in whole-hearted too, then supported ably by the colony mongrels :) Who would have thought to see (and hear) such a day. This too shall pass..</OT>

Reporting the same from BLR. Apart from mine, I could see the neighbouring society wallahs also join enthusiastically. For a full 10 minutes, one could not hear anything (no, it was that loud, but it was not quiet either). Generally positive reception from folks all over.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3579
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 22 Mar 2020 18:00

pankajs wrote:Not sure how true this is ...

https://twitter.com/alessabocchi/status ... 4920081409
Alessandra @alessabocchi

Many have asked why Italy has a higher death rate from Covid19 (7.9%) compared to other countries (3.4% global average). It's not because the population is "older", as many speculate. Japan has a higher median age than Italy, and Japan's peak death rate was 3.6%. The reasons are:
1) Italy is also measuring deaths co-caused by the coronavirus. Most other countries only register deaths exclusively caused by the virus. China, Germany and South Korea, for example, do not measure deaths of people with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid19.

India seems to have adopted this approach for counting with the Bihar case.


It makes no logic. Most of Chinese virus death in case of Italy (99%) is due to pre-existing conditions. This is the case in UK as well and they are all counted. A UK person of age 45 died of CV19, becoz he was a nervous system patient and he was counted.

Majority of the deaths are of people whose immunity is low due to existing conditions. Due to this, their body cannot fight the virus, when it is attacking the lungs.

Patients die gasping for breath. There is very less case of healthy person dying exclusively due to CV19.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3579
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 22 Mar 2020 18:02

why Japan has less death than Italy, because the Italians did not take the damn thing seriously. The Japanese went on hard borders as soon as the Chinese region exploded.

The Italians were carrying out "hug a chinese" exercise during that time.

Krita
BRFite
Posts: 174
Joined: 23 Jul 2009 13:33

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 22 Mar 2020 18:21

arshyam wrote:
Manish_P wrote:<OT> Enthusiastic clapping, cheering, banging of utensils, bells etc. Started in my Mumbai colony from 4.55 PM itself. Snooty neighbours, feuding cross-colony waalas all joined in. And their pet dogs joined in whole-hearted too, then supported ably by the colony mongrels :) Who would have thought to see (and hear) such a day. This too shall pass..</OT>

Reporting the same from BLR. Apart from mine, I could see the neighbouring society wallahs also join enthusiastically. For a full 10 minutes, one could not hear anything (no, it was that loud, but it was not quiet either). Generally positive reception from folks all over.

People were blowing conchs, beating plates, Manjira, ghanti and playing drums , the atmosphere was very festive with almost 100 percent participation in my society at Dwarka, Delhi. It started at 4.55 and went on till 5.05 PM

Lohit
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 63
Joined: 28 Feb 2019 01:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Lohit » 22 Mar 2020 18:28

The potential, unforeseen impact of C19

Came across some grim news in the form of an article

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

Crux is that C19 is airborne for upto 3 hrs. Meaning it can travel short distances in wind as well as ventilation and plumbing systems.

If true, it may likely lead to a revision of how effective home quarantine and social distancing would actually be. It may also lead to major super spreading events (although none seem to have been discovered so far).

Just to be sure, this is as yet only a letter to journal, not even a research paper (far from being even peer reviewed) BUT looks credible. If this is true, it's a disaster.

As an aside from the same journal, the virus can also survive on various surfaces from a few hours to upto 3 days, further increasing hazard.

We already know the virus has mutated as well and therefore immunity against once strand will likely not work against others. So the major bet on 'herd immunity' is a wild gamble at best.

All those doomsayers predicting millions dead globally, seem to be closer to truth with each passing day. Looks more and more likely that vested interests have engineered this (no prizes for guessing who) and have a plan to reap whatever is left from the fallout.

I hope PMO, RSS is already planning and preparing for a possible apocalypse even as tactical demands and heat rise with each day.

I also feel that we need to really put our minds to understand what the unknown unknowns of this event are likely to be,

For one, this might be a great 'wisdom' mass extinction event for humanity. It may mean that within the span of a few months society globally might loose the tallest pillars of our society across areas. Let's look at a few who are at high risk, statistically, from an age perspective in India for instance,

Politics - Modiji (69), Nitish (68), Gadkari (62), Sonia (73)
Society, religion, arts - Mohan Bhagwatji (66), Sadhguru (62), Sri sri (63), Amitabh (77), Rajini (69)
Business - Mukesh bhai (62), Uday Kotak (61), Anand Mahindra (64), Ratan tata (82), Shiv Nadar (74)

Imagine a scenario where persons of the stature above fall like dominos in a short span of time. While the count might only be '2%' the loss of this 2% vs say (and even though this is bad) 2% child mortality, is very, very different. Most folks are missing this important clue.

Globally, nations, societies, companies and most importantly families will loose venerable sources of wisdom. We cant even begin to predict the fall out from such events, if they come to pass. They will impact us in a million ways which are incredibly difficult to predict.

And yet, we need to start planning for this, no other way.

Circling back, recall how Xi went incognito, literally disappeared. Trump is on that podium everyday. One knows something the other doesn't.

VickyAvinash
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 35
Joined: 02 Oct 2017 07:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby VickyAvinash » 22 Mar 2020 18:33

Krita wrote:
arshyam wrote:Reporting the same from BLR. Apart from mine, I could see the neighbouring society wallahs also join enthusiastically. For a full 10 minutes, one could not hear anything (no, it was that loud, but it was not quiet either). Generally positive reception from folks all over.

People were blowing conchs, beating plates, Manjira, ghanti and playing drums , the atmosphere was very festive with almost 100 percent participation in my society at Dwarka, Delhi. It started at 4.55 and went on till 5.05 PM


Same here in our society in Gurgaon. People continued till 5:15. Never seen so much unity against any cause after Kargil when people came to roads to show support

Mollick.R
BRFite
Posts: 592
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mollick.R » 22 Mar 2020 18:37

arshyam wrote:
Manish_P wrote:<OT> Enthusiastic clapping, cheering, banging of utensils, bells etc. Started in my Mumbai colony from 4.55 PM itself. Snooty neighbours, feuding cross-colony waalas all joined in. And their pet dogs joined in whole-hearted too, then supported ably by the colony mongrels :) Who would have thought to see (and hear) such a day. This too shall pass..</OT>

Reporting the same from BLR. Apart from mine, I could see the neighbouring society wallahs also join enthusiastically. For a full 10 minutes, one could not hear anything (no, it was that loud, but it was not quiet either). Generally positive reception from folks all over.


Same in Kolkata.
When Modi jee has given this call, i was sceptical about its success. But response I have witnessed live and through WA videos from friends, relatives is overwhelming. Liberandus and anti Modi gang must be burning all out.

Good to see during such a big disaster nation is standing united and trusting its top leadership fully.
We shall overcome.

Sorry for the OT.

rgosain
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 10 Jan 2003 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby rgosain » 22 Mar 2020 18:38

nam wrote:why Japan has less death than Italy, because the Italians did not take the damn thing seriously. The Japanese went on hard borders as soon as the Chinese region exploded.

The Italians were carrying out "hug a chinese" exercise during that time.

Thanks for mentioning.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany/amp
Made in Italy is not what it used to be
Another key factor is the sheer number of chinese students who had returned to uk universities during the initial suspension of flights or soon afterwards through Feb. Since youngsters are asymptomatic, but are vectors, then any isolation measures even if there any, were meaningless.
Much of academia in the uk now is dependent on prc funding to the extent that it has become coopted by the prc. When this thing spins out of control, the list of people who are responsible are the politicians, bankers, journalists, media, tourism bosses, and much of academia and the scientists who have kow towd to the prc.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/coronavirus-chinese-students-uk.html

If the NYT with its affiliation to the prc has to write this then you know things are bad
Last edited by rgosain on 22 Mar 2020 19:07, edited 2 times in total.

Vadivel
BRFite
Posts: 306
Joined: 07 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: Chennai
Contact:

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vadivel » 22 Mar 2020 19:01

Mollick.R wrote:
arshyam wrote:Reporting the same from BLR. Apart from mine, I could see the neighbouring society wallahs also join enthusiastically. For a full 10 minutes, one could not hear anything (no, it was that loud, but it was not quiet either). Generally positive reception from folks all over.


Same in Kolkata.
When Modi jee has given this call, i was sceptical about its success. But response I have witnessed live and through WA videos from friends, relatives is overwhelming. Liberandus and anti Modi gang must be burning all out.

Good to see during such a big disaster nation is standing united and trusting its top leadership fully.
We shall overcome.

Sorry for the OT.


In Chennai as well, pleasantly surprised how the fascist Mudi has made the Indian liberandus to obey his "orders".

Roads are empty and people clapping and banging plates with spoons. I was like "Eh! where am I? In parallel universe?"

DrRatnadip
BRFite
Posts: 540
Joined: 31 Dec 2016 00:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 22 Mar 2020 19:02

Young Lecturer in dept of medicine GMC nagpur is admited in ICU for ARDS.. COVID 19 status is unknown ..

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3793
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 22 Mar 2020 19:04

Mollick.R wrote:Liberandus and anti Modi gang must be burning all out.

Noise pollution, it seems :lol:

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 22 Mar 2020 19:28

I did came out of my cave in very remote place and made sounds with plate. Felt good.

Neilz
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 90
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 21:09

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Neilz » 22 Mar 2020 19:47

With the clap and utensils banging I heard... some even drumming up ... It is burnol all the way in history of liberandus in India.

Just loving it.....
:rotfl: :rotfl:

On a serious note, this is probably first time in India the medical and support profession/als are acknowledged in the same league as Jai jawan, Jai kishan... Hope this will go a long long way in nation building.
_/\_
Last edited by Neilz on 22 Mar 2020 19:56, edited 1 time in total.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ambar, Ashokk and 10 guests