Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 25 Mar 2020 22:24

Deans wrote:No country so far has tested even 1% of its population.
Not Italy (High no of cases, very advanced medical system), Not Switzerland (Italy with a low population),
Not SoKo and the GCC countries which have high cases, a small population and a policy of broadening the testing criteria.

Testing capacity in India is significantly higher than the current demand. That capacity will go from 1000/day 3 days ago to 10,000/day within a week,if required. The problem we have is not lack of tests or testing capacity. That said, we should do more random tests in localities where infected people stayed to check for stage 3. Sample size of the only previous test was too low.


Did you look at UAE and Kuwait? UAE tested 1.3% of its population, Kuwait - 2.9%. Source:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Take the number of tests, divide by population, or just look at the "tests per million" figures in the site. UAE comes to 13,000 tests per million, Kuwait to 29,000. I acknowledge that "number of tests" could be a lot more than "number of people tested" but Kuwait seems to have got to 1% even if you factor 3 tests per person.

EDIT: Ah, they updated the site since the last time I checked, it seems UAE and Kuwait did not report new numbers, so they left those countries out. But I had saved the data from around 17th March, and the above numbers are what I got. For raw numbers of tests - UAE=125,000, Kuwait=120,000 (17th March).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Philip » 25 Mar 2020 22:30

In retrospect when all the warning bells were sounding in Jan.,that a poss. pandemic was round the corner,the sealing off of India from the world should've started.Unfortunately, the CAA,Shaheen Bagh,Delhi riots consumed almost everyone's attention and even when the intl. lockdown came, there was inadequate protocol at airports for ALL incoming passengers,who should've all been subjected to domestic self-quarantine. The incubation/ dormant period of a couple of weeks was known to all earlier. The media says that in the Punjab,over 40K NRIs who entered the state did not bother to undergo any self quarantine,in TNadu says a friend 2 lakh entered with minimum checking and no self-quarantine.

This foreign invasion of the virus into India mainly by air travellers who have now travelled all across the country is the nightmare facing the govt. and the people.We are woefully unprepared for an Italian or Spanish style catastrophe. We saw how one singer from the UK caused panic amongst the VIP pack.In SoKo,just one patient,no.31 was responsible for 60% of the cases! We haven't the ICUs,ventilators,medical staff,etc. to handle lakhs of cases.Mass testing in Italy helped one village handle the situation,but we have inadequate testing facilities.It's a race against time to equip ourselves for the same. We HAVE to protect our medical staff and essential service staff and volunteers who will be handling the extreme cases.Abroad many of them have died too.

So has this 3 week exercise in action is too little ,too late? Only time will tell.There was NO other alternative.In Russia,which has not too many cases ,but growing, Putin is considering bringing in the military .A former IA Lt.Gen., Gen.Panag says that we may have to call upon the military to assist and maintain discipline.Here are a few essentials required.

Getting field hospitals to handle cases in every metro,city,town in each district to be set up by any reliable contractor like L&T,etc. The modular structures used for industries can be built in a jiffy and could be replicated en masse. We need hundreds of such dedicated new centres apart from established govt. and private hospitals in ciries, as cases in city hospitals may spread the disease further.These centres/ hospitals will need to bd furnished with beds,eqpt. like ventilators, drugs,,etc. A huge challenge and opportunity for Indian industry.

Medical needs like drugs,ventilators,masks,sanitisers, clothing- we saw Putin visit cases wearing a special ( Hasmat?) suit.etc.,are required in huge quantities.Indian industry must be assisted by the GOI to produce this at hyper speed.Abroad distilleries are producing sanitisers at some of their units. In Italy the army is bring used to transport the dead for burial/ cremation,no religious ceremonies allowed too! The worry amongst the Indian population is how do they obtain their bare neccessities without violating the " lakshman rekha" during the lockdown? How many can afford home deliveries from Big Basket,Swiggy,etc.The poor are hugely affected and this is where state govts. and the PDS have to step in with easy methods of delivering essentials to family card holders,etc. How those at the bottom layer ,like daily wage earners,will get govt. subsidies,etc. is the Q. Neighbourhood food canteens will have to be set up for the poor to prevent them travelling outside their residential zone and transmitting or catching the bug.Villages in Britain and Europe that isolated themselves survived better than yhose that didn't.

These are just a few points.The challenge is enormous,a situation that comes once in several centuries.The European Black Death ,the bubonic plague, 670 years ago lasting around 5 years killed an estimated upto 200M people in Eurasia ! Unless critically required industries are allowed to function,workers given special passes,etc., immediately, we will run short of essentials fast. The NY governor this evening gave out stats of beds,ventilators reqd. and what existed. Woefully inadequate. We have to get even more pro-active.Social distancing alone won't defeat the bug,we need all sectors of industry and the economy assisting the govt. to over 100% in effort to make their vital conttibution to defeat this demon from China.
Last edited by Philip on 25 Mar 2020 23:43, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 25 Mar 2020 22:44

For those offering 20/20 hindsight based comments, please make the effort to normalize your argument to what every major economy is doing.

Here's some perspective - India has already tested and then begun implementation of a far more draconian lockdown than any of the top 10 economies on the planet. No one else has all international and domestic air / rail passenger travel stopped, all places of worship mandated shut without exception, and more. What's more, India was ahead of the curve of almost everyone else - I can only think of Japan who have the geographical benefit of being able to close off an island - in terms of blocking travel from high risk areas quickly.

We first blocked China against their vehement protestations, then blocked EU and ME, leading to such silliness as hyper-critical media types stranded abroad suddenly falling on 'Hon'ble Modiji and EAM ji's feet asking for ways to be permitted to enter India, contrary to the travel ban.

Given that the whole world has never before responded to a pandemic in this manner, our actions have been essentially bleeding edge as far as any major economy goes. Combined with this, we have our PSU and private manufacturing base stepping up and openly coordinating plans to manufacturing PPEs , ventilators and other equipment on a war footing. It's spectacular to see Kiran Mazumdar Shaw and others step up and say "here are the folks X who can produce Y" and BHEL immediately depute people "Go to X, supervise their scale up and distribute production of Y" within hours.

Please don't argue "yes that's all fine but not everyone will follow orders, Indians will always break rules", please stop your nitpicking. You seem to live under the impression that everyone else diligently says "sir yes sir!" and obeys every order. They don't even do that in PRC or even super organized Japan (I get daily information from there...), much less anywhere else. It's human nature to disobey - even a 2 year old does it. You offer nothing by way of insight with such comments and your energy would be better expended on being part of those coordinating and organizing a successful lockdown while understanding and finding ways to address human nature instead of just criticizing it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 25 Mar 2020 23:00

Press Trust of India
@PTI_News
·
1h
British national given HIV antiretroviral drugs to treat his coronavirus infection now tests negative: docs at Ernakulam hospital

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sanju » 25 Mar 2020 23:01

India is doing an outstanding job, irrespective of its extremely large size and population. There will be hiccups when large scale changes are implemented in such a vast populous land. There is no comparison as far as India is concerned in terms of population + form of govt - neither China with its 1-party dictatorship nor US with a population 1/4 the size of India. We need to stand by the front-line workers, Healthcare workers (both Clinical & Public Health), Civil Airlines staff, Govt. officials, Police, Armed Forces, volunteers and those who are delivering the much needed food and relief across the world.

On a personal note, a Primary school classmate of mine in the DC Area is in the ICU, intubated (sp?) with severe pneumonia due to Covid-19. I hope all you folks are taking care and in good health.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 25 Mar 2020 23:06

Suraj wrote:
In the US, the greatest/most powerful/yadayada/stable genius run place, and especially Bay Area, home of almost all major tech companies, people lost their collective heads, emptied out shelves of TP, water (what for ??) and I saw a shirt-pulling brawl over beer at the neighboring grocery between two guys who probably then went back home in their respective Teslas.


I wrote this three weeks ago. In the US, you could see this thing going FUBAR in front of our faces.
chola wrote:I am scared stiff of the system in the US. It's really broken when travellers from Italy are practically unscreened and not even asked to self-quarantine. Two of the three confirmed cases in Massachusetts were connected to Italy.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/06/metro/just-italy-time-self-quarantine-first-youve-got-make-it-home/


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 25 Mar 2020 23:11

At the high level things are going great - tough talk, tough action, clear lines, but a lot of people at the margins are getting crushed. Migrant labour wasn't given the time to reach their natives. If the intent was for them to not proceed to their natives (which is quite logical - we don't want to disperse the virus) this should have been clearly messaged. Not much thought was put into how to house and feed these armies of people on whom our economy runs. Facilities should have been provided for them by the state administration, with prior announcements so they wouldn't try to cram into the few remaining trains and carry WuhanVirus to interior villages. Putting the onus on employers would also not be the right thing to do because (i) employers are themselves hurting and (ii) many of these labourers don't have steady employment and are working gigs, or with other contractors who are themselves migrants.

"Stay within your homes" seems a tad elitist - good for those of us who have steady and stable homes but doesn't work for all. A cousin got booted from a working womens hostel because they were asked to shut down. She has nowhere else to call home. (She got lucky with an alternative arrangement)

This is not a knock on the govt which has its own pressures, just an observation and reminder that there are a lot of unfortunate people out there in worse situations than our own so let's count our blessings.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 25 Mar 2020 23:18

Deans wrote:On the contrary, India is testing those with the highest risk of contracting Corona (visible symptoms or close contact with an infected person).
Yet, the positive cases are under 2.5% - If you exclude the people who arrived in India infected, only about 1 in 80 locals (with most chance of
getting it) have turned positive. That is very encouraging. The most important piece of info I look at is the daily ICMR report of tests conducted.


The point I was driving at is that it is not possible to know prevalence of the virus at a more localized level without more testing. This would be useful in determining which districts could be opened back up from the lock down.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 25 Mar 2020 23:19

Yes, the real risk is just how long people can live, almost literally without an economy for 2-3 weeks. I see a temporary UBI being issued using the JAM system in place.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 25 Mar 2020 23:23

Philip wrote:In retrospect when allthe warning bells were sounding in Jan.,that a poss. pandemic was round the corner,the sealing off of India from the world should've started.


The lack of warning is on the Chinese government and WHO. I posted the timeline about patient zero in Seattle. He flew in on Jan 15, when the publicly admitted number of infections in Wuhan were 41. Both USA and India implemented travel restrictions on Jan 17.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby greatde » 25 Mar 2020 23:24

Suraj wrote:Yes, the real risk is just how long people can live, almost literally without an economy for 2-3 weeks. I see a temporary UBI being issued using the JAM system in place.


Well, demonetization showed our people can manage without cash for certain period. And more than economy, it is food and shelter. Thus, timely deliveries of food to the needy, and shelters for any homeless has to be done...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 25 Mar 2020 23:27

Bart S wrote:Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ET86NhYUwAA ... name=small

Kanika Kapoor at work again :roll:


She should be called 'Korona Kapoor', the new Typhoid Mary of India. Celebrities and influencers should set an example and urge everyone to do what is for the common good, stay home and keep everyone safe. Not go gallivanting around, promoting yourself for your two minutes of fame. Shame.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 25 Mar 2020 23:28

vera_k wrote:
Philip wrote:In retrospect when allthe warning bells were sounding in Jan.,that a poss. pandemic was round the corner,the sealing off of India from the world should've started.


The lack of warning is on the Chinese government and WHO. I posted the timeline about patient zero in Seattle. He flew in on Jan 15, when the publicly admitted number of infections in Wuhan were 41. Both USA and India implemented travel restrictions on Jan 17.


There wasn't much of a restriction. There was a temperature check, noting of addresses & seat numbers and then you went on your merry ways. And even that, direct from people who flew in during late Jan/early Feb, was patchy - e.g. I don't think they did it in Delhi.

The problem is that nobody had expected or seen asymptomatic transmission with an incubation period of 14 days before. China should have been more vocal about their findings - but then they only write when they can get a paper published and add to their citation count.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby A Sharma » 25 Mar 2020 23:34

Was talking to someone who works for IKEA. Their SME supply from India hit just not due to lockdown but also have been asked by Govt to make medical stuff like gowns, gloves etc.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 25 Mar 2020 23:36

Primus wrote:
Bart S wrote:Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ET86NhYUwAA ... name=small

Kanika Kapoor at work again :roll:


She should be called 'Korona Kapoor', the new Typhoid Mary of India. Celebrities and influencers should set an example and urge everyone to do what is for the common good, stay home and keep everyone safe. Not go gallivanting around, promoting yourself for your two minutes of fame. Shame.


She gave it to Prince Charlie. She was our instrument of revenge for the Britshit Raj!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 25 Mar 2020 23:40

Deans wrote:No country so far has tested even 1% of its population.
Not Italy (High no of cases, very advanced medical system), Not Switzerland (Italy with a low population),
Not SoKo and the GCC countries which have high cases, a small population and a policy of broadening the testing criteria.

Testing capacity in India is significantly higher than the current demand. That capacity will go from 1000/day 3 days ago to 10,000/day within a week,if required. The problem we have is not lack of tests or testing capacity. That said, we should do more random tests in localities where infected people stayed to check for stage 3. Sample size of the only previous test was too low.

Truly. How hard is it really to get some random sampling done. And test accordingly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 25 Mar 2020 23:43

chola wrote:
Primus wrote:
She should be called 'Korona Kapoor', the new Typhoid Mary of India. .


She gave it to Prince Charlie. She was our instrument of revenge for the Britshit Raj!

ROFL. Hello your Royal Highness, I'm Korona Kapoor, Kareenas third sister :)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 25 Mar 2020 23:59

vera_k wrote:
The point I was driving at is that it is not possible to know prevalence of the virus at a more localized level without more testing. This would be useful in determining which districts could be opened back up from the lock down.


The issue is, if you want to do localised testing, which locality will that be? how many people? If they come negative now, what is the gurantee it will be the same in two days time?

Despite what might seem logical, it is not worthwhile to do indiscriminate testing. I know it is very tempting to test everyone and weed out infected ones. For this you need to lock down a place completely and mass test. Not possible with 1.3 billion people.

What ICMR is doing, is mentioned in the previous pages on this thread. ICMR is monitoring respiratory patients, to see if any recent referral is positive. So far they are not finding any, hence the reason of saying no community transmission yet.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 26 Mar 2020 00:10

chola wrote:
Primus wrote:She should be called 'Korona Kapoor', the new Typhoid Mary of India. Celebrities and influencers should set an example and urge everyone to do what is for the common good, stay home and keep everyone safe. Not go gallivanting around, promoting yourself for your two minutes of fame. Shame.

She gave it to Prince Charlie. She was our instrument of revenge for the Britshit Raj!

If Charlie then went and met mummy dear, who proceeds to keel over in another 3 weeks from this, then I might just forgive this lady - she's still an idiot, but will have served the purpose of being a useful idiot.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 26 Mar 2020 00:22

Govt likely to unveil $20 billion-plus stimulus package

Direct payments into the bank accounts of 100 million poor and to businesses affected by the lockdown.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 26 Mar 2020 00:26

Gerard wrote:Govt likely to unveil $20 billion-plus stimulus package

Direct payments into the bank accounts of 100 million poor and to businesses affected by the lockdown.

Excellent news. The government is acting in a very predictable, organized and rational manner. Spend years setting up a mechanism for DBT. In a crisis, first trial a lockdown, then 2 days later, organize lockdown, and within a day, announce a massive UBI stimulus disbursal to address the stoppage in economic activity.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 26 Mar 2020 00:37

chola wrote:
Primus wrote:
She should be called 'Korona Kapoor', the new Typhoid Mary of India. Celebrities and influencers should set an example and urge everyone to do what is for the common good, stay home and keep everyone safe. Not go gallivanting around, promoting yourself for your two minutes of fame. Shame.


She gave it to Prince Charlie. She was our instrument of revenge for the Britshit Raj!



Vish-Kanya from the Yeevil Yindoos. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sicanta » 26 Mar 2020 00:37

Well atleast all PSU banks are offering emergency credit to existing customers. Some are even offering it to retail customers.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/wap.busine ... 911_1.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 26 Mar 2020 00:39

Gurus had anyone seen the article. A TLDR please for mango people

Swarajyamag.com article on modeling State wise projection

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_Sharma » 26 Mar 2020 00:55

China is pressuring Indian journalists to peddle the Chinese government's propaganda on the #Chinesevirus. Some of them are afraid for their lives and careers if they don't comply.

Most are complying.

I will not be complying.

If I wind up dead, know that China did it.
https://twitter.com/HarbirSinghNain/sta ... 81185?s=19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 26 Mar 2020 01:06

I just did a quick fact check with some business data available to me for Jan, Feb and March.
Our customers in Shanghai and Beijing were completely normal and operating at full potential with the exception of new year dip if I check the raw numbers. And this wasnt even essential services (Automobile parts), office and warehouse staff were working fine. We used to hold calls with them and their demeanor did not suggest anything other than complete normality.
At the first sign of a shutdown though in India though, the same customer's offices in Pune, Jharkhand and MP are completely shut down. What gives? What (if) are they hiding?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Garooda » 26 Mar 2020 01:19

India's Corona Dashboard updating every 4 hrs.

India_COVID_19_Dashboard
Last edited by Garooda on 26 Mar 2020 01:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 26 Mar 2020 01:30

Suraj wrote:
chola wrote:She gave it to Prince Charlie. She was our instrument of revenge for the Britshit Raj!

If Charlie then went and met mummy dear, who proceeds to keel over in another 3 weeks from this, then I might just forgive this lady - she's still an idiot, but will have served the purpose of being a useful idiot.


Suraj ji! Have you seen the Queen Mother (of the Hive)? She looks like a 5000-year-old mummy and is probably just as immortal. She looked like this when Princess Diana (bless her soul) married Charlie three decades. No, she won't keel over.

She might even be Victoria in disguise to hide from the Britshits that their Queen is actually a 150-year-old ghoul.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dr.uday » 26 Mar 2020 02:08

Deleted on user request
Last edited by Suraj on 26 Mar 2020 03:38, edited 3 times in total.
Reason: Noise

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sumair » 26 Mar 2020 02:09

kvraghav wrote:I have one question in general. Why do we have less death rate in terms of flu when compared to other developed nations with such wonderfull health care facility?

Interesting question. Someone should write a paper on this. India was also spared the wrath of the SARS virus. It is not the case just with India but most of the tropical countries. My personal opinion is that Indian population in large has immunity to malaria and since corona virus’s infection mechanism in human body is similar to that of malaria, Indians and other tropical populations are less vulnerable. Secondly we are blessed with abundance of sunlight; the primary source of vitamin D in the human body. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with acute respiratory infections along with host of other disease such as Tb, Influenza, COPD, asthma etc. Vitamin D inhibits pro inflammatory cytokines and promotes cathelicidin production. Cathelicidin is the only anti microbial protein that humans make that kills viruses, fungi and bacteria. It is no surprise that influenza case decline in summer times in the northern hemisphere when Vitamin D levels spike due to the sunlight exposure. We will know if this holds true in the coming few weeks.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby krithivas » 26 Mar 2020 02:16

IMO, Major credit is to our traditional food habits. Food has been fine tuned over thousands of years through constant learning/fine-tuning to be more medicinal in addition to the nutritional value. Turmeric, Pepper, Ginger et al provides our internal systems with strong immunity.

Sumair wrote:
kvraghav wrote:I have one question in general. Why do we have less death rate in terms of flu when compared to other developed nations with such wonderfull health care facility?

Interesting question. Someone should write a paper on this. India was also spared the wrath of the SARS virus. It is not the case just with India but most of the tropical countries. My personal opinion is that Indian population in large has immunity to malaria and since corona virus’s infection mechanism in human body is similar to that of malaria, Indians and other tropical populations are less vulnerable. Secondly we are blessed with abundance of sunlight; the primary source of vitamin D in the human body. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with acute respiratory infections along with host of other disease such as Tb, Influenza, COPD, asthma etc. Vitamin D inhibits pro inflammatory cytokines and promotes cathelicidin production. Cathelicidin is the only anti microbial protein that humans make that kills viruses, fungi and bacteria. It is no surprise that influenza case decline in summer times in the northern hemisphere when Vitamin D levels spike due to the sunlight exposure. We will know if this holds true in the coming few weeks.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dr.uday » 26 Mar 2020 02:19

Malaria and coronavirus dont have similar mechanism of infection. Please provide any source of this info if available. Rest of the vitamin D part i agree.. and importantly due to overcrowding and poor hygeine, we are repeatedly exposed to more infections and that keeps our immunity more robust. All these infections we have suffered every year are may be blessings in disguise. This theorey is not conclusively proven, but is popular.
And the food habits part mentioned above is right too.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 26 Mar 2020 02:21

Suraj wrote:In the US, the greatest/most powerful/yadayada/stable genius run place, and especially Bay Area, home of almost all major tech companies, people lost their collective heads, emptied out shelves of TP, water (what for ??) and I saw a shirt-pulling brawl over beer at the neighboring grocery between two guys who probably then went back home in their respective Teslas.


Suraj'san., Are you trying to out me? ChugBeerHugDeer should be the new mantra!

Jokes apart, there were enough jokers around in my company who were stockpiling on TP. And these are recent data science graduates. When I pointed out to them that they have stockpiled enough of TP to last them a year (if not two) and they do not need to stockpile on water (SF Bay Area has one of the cleanest drinking water on tap in the world so much so that Coca-Cola was bottling SF tap water and re-selling it), stocked up on N95 masks and enough of hand sanitizers to bathe in it daily. I found it ridiculous and there are enough crazies that flout the norm and started having parties at home.

One of them had 30 gallons (@90 ltrs) of milk in the cart. I told him that cows have not got coronavirus yet and they will still give milk tomorrow. I got a birdie along mind your own business look.

Human brain sometimes is pathetic. It is beyond reason when its amygdala takes over.

In that sense, what India is doing is amazing. What Indians are doing is also amazing. I see photos of tiny Kirana shops that have put circles in front of their shop and following social distancing.

Other than some insouciant, arrogant and illegal behaviour from the so-called educated elite who are quick to give advice to all and sundry., This 21 days will pass peacefully and India will pull off a major victory.

I am sure behind the scenes, infrastructure is being setup. A 100 bed here and a 50 beds there, slowly if each state starts adding health care facilities near the clusters which are currently hot, we might pull this through well.

And look at the good part, summer is coming. And there is general social distancing anyway in summer if marriages, places of worship, cinema theatres are closed.

And people generally cooperate. If their fears are addressed and they see that mingling will lead to contagion, they voluntarily avoid mingling. Take a look at Brazil itself. Despite its president huffing and puffing that the case of coronavirus is overblown, the state government and people are doing a kind of self imposed social distancing! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil/as-sao-paulo-goes-into-coronavirus-lockdown-china-offers-to-help-brazil-idUSKBN21B2H2

NRao
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby NRao » 26 Mar 2020 02:22


sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 26 Mar 2020 02:23

dr.uday wrote:GUYS PLEASE GO THROUGH. I am not trying to downplay the seriousness of coronavirus but i have an alternate theory. Just point out if there are flaws in my theorey.
....


This will fall in the realm of CT (Conspiracy Theory) and Suraj san will jump on your post, and then on you. Just warning you, because you seem to be new here (operative word being "seem," I don't know how long you have been lurking, so please don't mind if it sounds patronizing). Maybe these kinds of posts would be ok in some other thread, but in this one, I guess the point is to keep it focused on action items.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 26 Mar 2020 02:27

The virus is either from the Chini's wet market or a leak from Wuhan's bio lab. It seems some bigwig in CCP force the Chinese government to keep the wet markets open. They closed all of them for 6 months during the SARS outbreak. Then re-opened it.

How did it get to Italy? Well they have direct flights from Wuhan to Venice!

Not even that, Iran outbreak started from Qom, which is heavily inhibited by Chinese working on investment projects. Probably the same with Pak and they realized late, as they didn't have any kit to even test.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dr.uday » 26 Mar 2020 02:33

I have been lurking ever since balakot sir. I little bit know the norms here. But this theory has actual impact if it holds true. If some of us can really verify how severe is the lockdown in china, then we can come to a conclusion and stop chasing our tails. And may be we can decrease the economic losses. My only problem is why is everybody going crazy over corona. Didnt 80k die last year in UK with flu? In my practice we see lot of old people just falling really sick of seasonal cold. Is it just me or am i missing something?
Last edited by dr.uday on 26 Mar 2020 02:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jay » 26 Mar 2020 02:33

Sumair wrote:Interesting question. Someone should write a paper on this. India was also spared the wrath of the SARS virus. It is not the case just with India but most of the tropical countries.


What about the 1918 spanish flu then that it took the life of 12-20 million in India? Without any conclusive proof, it's hard to believe that we may have super immunity to the flu virus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 26 Mar 2020 02:34

sudarshan wrote:
Don't you have to account for the initial number of cases?

Meaning - if you had 600 initial cases and after 5 days, it becomes 728, that's an increase of 128 in 5 days. If you had 10 initial cases and it becomes 138 in 5 days, that is also an increase of 128 in 5 days. Is the R0 the same in both cases?


For the initial cases, they were imported and not part of any local transmission. Now since India is in total lockdown and its ports are sealed, it can be monitored as transmissions in a closed space.

We will know the true picture in a week. It does turn out that most of the cases are in clusters and it is not surprising that those clusters have the most cases. For example., Kasargode, Karimnagar, Bhiwani etc.


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