Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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kvraghav
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by kvraghav »

There is a highest daily jump in india today of 120 cases. This is being attributed mainly to the large number of people coming into the country on 21 and 22nd.
suryag
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by suryag »

India trends according to John hopkins

India - dont know what to make of ro
03/19 - 244
03/20 - 330
03/21 - 396
03/22 - 499
03/23 - 536
03/24 - 657 --> we are entering a very critical phase, fingers crossed

USA - starting from the time when the number was around 244
03/05 - 262
03/06 - 402
03/07 - 518
03/08 - 583
03/09 - 959
03/10 - 1300
03/11 - 1700
03/12 - 2200
03/13 - 2700
03/14 - 3500
03/15 - 4600
03/16 - 6400
03/17 - 7800
03/18 - 13700
03/19 - 19100
03/20 - 25500
03/21 - 33300
arvin
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arvin »

No new case in kasargod yesterday. Hope the trend continues. Lock down and quarantine enforcement showing results. Rest of India should also similar trends.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/politi ... 816799.cms
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by DrRatnadip »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/swarajyama ... ors-strike

Shameless politicians from malegaon putting extra pressure on doctors..
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

suryag wrote:India trends according to John hopkins

India - dont know what to make of ro
03/19 - 244
03/20 - 330
03/21 - 396
03/22 - 499
03/23 - 536
03/24 - 657 --> we are entering a very critical phase, fingers crossed
In UK, after the 10th death, the next day it jumped to 21 death. Then it never looked back. This is a sign of rapid spread.

In our case, as long as our death rates doesn't increase exponentially, we are managing well. Large number of death, indicates large hospitalization. People who died today, would have been infected 2 weeks back, along with lot of other people. Those haven't died, which is a good sign.
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Chinis making money selling junk to the Spanish. They also did the same with the Czech

https://twitter.com/stuartlauscmp/statu ... 2800746496

Chinis made 432M selling testing kit and medical PPE to the Spainish.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by manju »

a_bharat wrote:
Mollick.R wrote: Currently, no company manufactures 100 percent indigenous ventilators in India. Most companies either import, assemble or partially produce it with components sourced from Europe, US and China.
.... The cost ranges from Rs 5 lakh to 12 lakh.
I read about usage of
splitters
to make a single ventilator machine support multiple patients. There is plenty of old literature about 1-to-4 splitters. Recently, I read about 1-to-9 splitter used at some place for treating corona virus patients.

These are quick, inexpensive and easy to make. We should take this route, while in parallel also try to to make indigenous ventilator machines.
Needs lot jugaad to ensure
- pressure equal in all tubes- lenght of tube should be same
- which mean how you position the vent wrt to the four patients that share the vent
- they must be of same wt and must be requiring same volume and pressure..

possible but need some expertise, not for the novice
manju
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by manju »

tandav wrote:An interesting snippet was posted that the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed 5-6% of India's then population. Is there any studies / papers that mention what was the causes and measures taken then. It is shocking that a lot of us were hoping that our hot humid temperatures would protect us, not even knowing that a similar flu with origins in China had devastated India a mere 100 years earlier. I want to know how China managed the crisis then and how the British mismanaged it in India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
6% x 30 crore- 1.8 crore died at that time

https://caravanmagazine.in/history/span ... nged-india

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

Must read article which will help put the current chinese pandemic in perspective
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by manju »

CRamS wrote:Very interesting how libarandus and libtards and BIF very quickly take a contrarian position. Their pet peeve now, even as they keep their fingers crossed that India will be consumed by COVID, is that everything Modiji is doing is a 'fraud' and 'PR' because there is no testing going on. I felt like spitting on that Lutyen b@strad Mihir Simon Sharma for mocking a very benign 5-minute show of clapping and bell ringing support by Indians en masse post Janta curfew as a 'gimmick'. Will the scum bag dare say 'gimmick' in Bloomberg to mock Italians doing the same thing and keep his paid propaganda job? I doubt it, his sorry ass will kicked out of Bloomberg news rooms.

I am keeping my fingers crossed. Studying some mathematics models and experimenting with data myself. Gratified that so far in the past 48 hours, there has been no dramatic spike in India, and US rise also is slow.

While I do believe there may be many more infected who just haven't shown symptoms yet, and many may never show symptoms but may infect others; what is clear is that as of say 10-14 days ago, there was no mass epidemic in India. Or else by this time, the #s would have been staggering like the 'predictions' by that scum bag from Princeton who was painting all kinds of dire scenarios on Indian TV with dumbo hosts like Burka Bibi and Rahul Kanwal.
CRamS

Namaste, This tool will help model the trajectory of the COVID epidemic in the state. It will be useful in predicting and planning. You may find this useful. https://neherlab.org/covid19/. How to use this tool https://neherlab.org/covid19/about.
Deans
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

suryag wrote:India trends according to John hopkins

India - dont know what to make of ro
03/19 - 244
03/20 - 330
03/21 - 396
03/22 - 499
03/23 - 536
03/24 - 657 --> we are entering a very critical phase, fingers crossed

USA - starting from the time when the number was around 244
03/05 - 262
03/06 - 402
03/07 - 518
03/08 - 583
03/09 - 959
03/10 - 1300
I'm not sure on basis we are choosing 240-260 cases as the basis to begin a comparison. Why not after 100 cases, or 1 dead etc ?
The cases also are a function of population. i.e. Portugal will never have the same death toll as Spain, though it may have the same curve
trajectory, or same % of pop. infected.

However, by whatever criteria are used, we so far have an infection growth rate (% over previous day) lower than Europe & US.
If on the same base of infected people, we have a lower rate of infection growth, DESPITE having a larger population and higher urban population density, it would mean the proportion of people getting infected is a lot lower.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

manju wrote:
a_bharat wrote:
I read about usage ofto make a single ventilator machine support multiple patients. There is plenty of old literature about 1-to-4 splitters. Recently, I read about 1-to-9 splitter used at some place for treating corona virus patients.

These are quick, inexpensive and easy to make. We should take this route, while in parallel also try to to make indigenous ventilator machines.
Needs lot jugaad to ensure
- pressure equal in all tubes- lenght of tube should be same
- which mean how you position the vent wrt to the four patients that share the vent
- they must be of same wt and must be requiring same volume and pressure..

possible but need some expertise, not for the novice

Not tested on humans yet.

many local efforts are on in India to make 2 and 4 way splitters

Ventilator capacity will fall short in a covid surge. 3 d printed splitter may allow one ventilator to be used for two patients- effectively 2x capacity. We can 3d print this + test at Blore.
https://prusaprinters.org/prints/25808- ... on-d/files




Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by manju »

chetak wrote:
manju wrote:
Needs lot jugaad to ensure
- pressure equal in all tubes- lenght of tube should be same
- which mean how you position the vent wrt to the four patients that share the vent
- they must be of same wt and must be requiring same volume and pressure..

possible but need some expertise, not for the novice

Not tested on humans yet.

many local efforts are on in India to make 2 and 4 way splitters

Ventilator capacity will fall short in a covid surge. 3 d printed splitter may allow one ventilator to be used for two patients- effectively 2x capacity. We can 3d print this + test at Blore.
https://prusaprinters.org/prints/25808- ... on-d/files




Image
has been tested in USA somewhere in an emergency situation - remember seeing a video. Not sure if it is published in a peer review journal.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by schinnas »

Splitting ventilators has been used in several hospitals all over the world including in India in the past. It's not a new thing but local juggad quality may not be standardized.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Apparently the Chinese virus has almost the same viral load in a asymptomatic person, compared to one with symptoms.

And nose has more load than mouth. So looks like most of the spread is done by people sneezing and thinking it is due to dust.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

^^^^^^^

this needs Indian approval.

no one is bothered about foreign tests or approval except maybe as a rough check and guideline for the correctness or otherwise of the procedure to use such a device.

The device needs to be cleared by Indian authorities else use in India and failure may easily lead to a murder charge if not approved.

No Indian doctor or hospital will risk it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by neerajb »

I am no expert but a recent event nearby makes me think that:

1. The numbers being reported do not reflect reality. Not fudging the numbers but general callousness of government apparatus towards public in general is causing the low confirmed numbers.

2. Few prospective cases are being tested likely due to cost and shortage of imported kits. Indigenous kits should solve this problem but that will take around a week.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 824406.cms
The starting of the end game for Xi??
I think in the coming days there will be Bi-partisan support for dissing CCP and China for withholding information and the subsequent chaos.
No wonder the cheens were ringing EAM yesterday!!
Probably EU will also unite with the US in this act to take out Chine!!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

neerajb wrote:I am no expert but a recent event nearby makes me think that:

1. The numbers being reported do not reflect reality. Not fudging the numbers but general callousness of government apparatus towards public in general is causing the low confirmed numbers.

2. Few prospective cases are being tested likely due to cost and shortage of imported kits. Indigenous kits should solve this problem but that will take around a week.
Gov labs can do 75,000 tests per week. We don't have shortage of testing kits.

The testing criteria is well thought through. The details are present in this thread.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by yensoy »

neerajb wrote:I am no expert but a recent event nearby makes me think that:

1. The numbers being reported do not reflect reality. Not fudging the numbers but general callousness of government apparatus towards public in general is causing the low confirmed numbers.

2. Few prospective cases are being tested likely due to cost and shortage of imported kits. Indigenous kits should solve this problem but that will take around a week.
Actually I think reported numbers are reasonably on the mark - maybe off by a factor of 2 or 5 but not 10 or 100.

Our tests were initially done very selectively, and even among those showing strong symptoms of Wuhanvirus, the incidences were very low - low single digit percentages. For this subset of population, it could have been expected to be much higher.

Those with serious/critical conditions of Wuhanvirus would show clear symptoms of breathlessness, and today everybody knows that fact. Such a patient would be immediately checked for the virus. Even now we aren't seeing big numbers of critically ill patients thronging the wards. Facts like these cannot be kept out of the public view so there is no cover-up going on.

We probably have a long tail of infected individuals who are asymptomatic or fighting the virus. Which is a good thing if the virus loses.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

neerajb wrote:I am no expert but a recent event nearby makes me think that:

1. The numbers being reported do not reflect reality. Not fudging the numbers but general callousness of government apparatus towards public in general is causing the low confirmed numbers.

2. Few prospective cases are being tested likely due to cost and shortage of imported kits. Indigenous kits should solve this problem but that will take around a week.
To add to what the previous posters have said:
1. Tests are being done free (so far). If there was a shortage of tests, it would reflect in a high number of positive cases. The opposite is true.
We have among the LOWEST no of positive cases when we test - 26000 is a reasonable large sample size. We are not testing more as we don't have
people to test (who meet criteria adopted in almost every other major country). When you say `numbers do not reflect reality', do you have a better basis to determine the number of cases ?

2. In a democracy you can't hide deaths even if the govt is inefficient. In fact govt has reported marginal cases, such as a foreigner who recovered and was discharged and then died of a heart attack. Or someone who died of pneumonia who was not tested at the time of admission but after his death. There is a protocol to follow when someone tests positive and you can't hide info about what happens to that person subsequently.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SriKumar »

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 824406.cms
The starting of the end game for Xi??
I think in the coming days there will be Bi-partisan support for dissing CCP and China for withholding information and the subsequent chaos.
No wonder the cheens were ringing EAM yesterday!!
Probably EU will also unite with the US in this act to take out Chine!!
I am glad a public statement has been made, by a high ranking official, from an inter national platform G7. Some, if not most of his comments are literally true.others are generally true.

About yesterday, I was a bit surprised to hear the Chinese ambassador say that they had thanked India for the aid. They sound a bit scared. Dokalam anyone.

The story for Kanika Kapoor and Prince Charles (it is an old photo) should really be that India got the viral disease from first world U.K. - not the other way around. This is literally true.
Also read that KK was administered 4 swabs of which 3 were negative, one positive.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by madhu »

Image

Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

If ICMR has to find out if there is a community transmission, what will it do?

You would expect them to look at two places: Hospital reporting large number of respiratory patients. And doctors in clinic getting infected, as people will invariably visit the local clinic first.

Needless to say, ICMR is testing the doctors and taking samples from recent referrals for respiratory patients.

The lockdown was required not just to control the spread, but to make sure those "foreign return" jokers are sitting at home. They number around 1.7M. Without proper dhanda, they refuse to sit at home.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by neerajb »

Sirs, I have no data but there was a sudden death in our locality. All symptoms and past history medical/travel is suggestive of what was the reason. Local doctor and the one who declared the demise is saying the same thing. Government contacted, not a word on it and certainly the number didn't bump so it went under the radar. People at their level are doing their best to get family tested, but even after couple of days no test done on the family. So we don't know the status of that person and the family.

Just extrapolating that if this is the situation in the capital of India then what to expect in remote areas.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

nam wrote:If ICMR has to find out if there is a community transmission, what will it do?

You would expect them to look at two places: Hospital reporting large number of respiratory patients. And doctors in clinic getting infected, as people will invariably visit the local clinic first.

Needless to say, ICMR is testing the doctors and taking samples from recent referrals for respiratory patients.

The lockdown was required not just to control the spread, but to make sure those "foreign return" jokers are sitting at home. They number around 1.7M. Without proper dhanda, they refuse to sit at home.

some azadi seekers are causing trouble all over by refusing to abide by the lockdown.

they are insisting on being extremely confrontationist and become violent almost at first contact but the police don't seem to be backing down so easily these days.

there is some anecdotal evidence of community transmissions just about beginning to rear its ugly head but take it with a fist full of salt unless confirmed officially.

It will be the govt's worst nightmare come true
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

neerajb wrote:Sirs, I have no data but there was a sudden death in our locality. All symptoms and past history medical/travel is suggestive of what was the reason. Local doctor and the one who declared the demise is saying the same thing. Government contacted, not a word on it and certainly the number didn't bump so it went under the radar. People at their level are doing their best to get family tested, but even after couple of days no test done on the family. So we don't know the status of that person and the family.

Just extrapolating that if this is the situation in the capital of India then what to expect in remote areas.
Have they tried calling the helpline? The prime criteria for testing is recent travel. If the case is positive, the people in the family will start having fever & dry rough.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

manju wrote:
a_bharat wrote:
I read about usage ofto make a single ventilator machine support multiple patients. There is plenty of old literature about 1-to-4 splitters. Recently, I read about 1-to-9 splitter used at some place for treating corona virus patients.

These are quick, inexpensive and easy to make. We should take this route, while in parallel also try to to make indigenous ventilator machines.
Needs lot jugaad to ensure
- pressure equal in all tubes- lenght of tube should be same
- which mean how you position the vent wrt to the four patients that share the vent
- they must be of same wt and must be requiring same volume and pressure..

possible but need some expertise, not for the novice
This is low cost ...check out
https://www.agvahealthcare.com/models

and this
https://www.skanray.com/?q=content/ventilators
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Per this website https://www.covid19india.org/, the total cases in India has touched 697 (+40 today)...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by tandav »

nam wrote:Apparently the Chinese virus has almost the same viral load in a asymptomatic person, compared to one with symptoms.

And nose has more load than mouth. So looks like most of the spread is done by people sneezing and thinking it is due to dust.
No one has reported sneezing as a major symptom. Top 3 symptoms are 1) High Temp 2) Coughing 3) Fatigue in fact sneezing has never been mentioned in any report I have seen so far
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Krita »

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 824406.cms
The starting of the end game for Xi??
I think in the coming days there will be Bi-partisan support for dissing CCP and China for withholding information and the subsequent chaos.
No wonder the cheens were ringing EAM yesterday!!
Probably EU will also unite with the US in this act to take out Chine!!
Chinese have activated their slaves in media,
Coupta & co and rndtv are now peddling the fake narrative of Chinese magnanimity in helping the countries counter Chinavirus . The prestititutes from the fake news channels of rndtv, scroll, Liar etc are tweeting non-stop terming "Chinavirus" as racist. But, lockdown has given a lot of free time to the middle class and they are effectively countering the 50 centers. #Chinaliedpeople or #Chinavirus are now trending on twitter and youtube.
The latest news that 80% of the test kits sold by Chinese to Spain and Czech are faulty have further destroyed their image rebuilding exercise.
WION's Palki Sharma is a doing a great job of reporting and questioning the Chinese and the WHO for their mishandling of the Wuhan Coronavirus.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by VinodTK »

Never forget what COVID 19 is:
C-China
O-Originated
V-Virus
I-In
D-December
19-2019
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ricky_v »

Usage of chinese virus is problematic because so many viruses come from that place that it leaves things unclear, the msm may have a point, just the other day there was supposed to be a breakout of hantavirus in china. Classifying all these new and existing diseases from one country can become confusing, we cannot name all the epidemics the chinese virus now can we, how would we even differntiate?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

arshyam wrote:'No one will go hungry': Rs 1.70 lakh crore to help poor during coronavirus lockdown - TNIE
NEW DELHI: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a stimulus package worth Rs 1.70 lakh crore including Direct Benefit cash transfers, free LPG, grains and pulses for the poor while the middle class will be able to withdraw funds from their Employees Provident Fund (EPF) account to give all of them some respite during the coronavirus lockdown.

"A package is ready for the poor who need immediate help like migrant workers and urban and rural poor. No one will go hungry. The package is worth Rs 1.7 lakh crore and will include a mix of food security and direct cash transfer benefits, which shield poor families during the lockdown. This will be done under the Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Ann Yojna," Sitharaman said.
More details in the Econ thread.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

ricky_v wrote:Usage of chinese virus is problematic because so many viruses come from that place that it leaves things unclear, the msm may have a point, just the other day there was supposed to be a breakout of hantavirus in china. Classifying all these new and existing diseases from one country can become confusing, we cannot name all the epidemics the chinese virus now can we, how would we even differntiate?
Wuhanvirus? There is precedent, like Nipah or the NDM-1 superbug named after our very own rajdhani.

Hopefully, the much vaunted Chinese manufacturing capability does not manufacture multiple virii from the same city. If they do that too, then a naming convention like China-2019 (Covid), China-2003 (SARS), China-1997 (Avian flu) could be considered.

We should never allow this to be erased from collective memory. China and Corona must be permanently tarred with the same brush.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sathish_A »

Just an insight on how Germany is managing to keep its fatality rate low. Detection and Isolation is the key.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200326/german ... 000-a-week
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

Sathish_A wrote:Just an insight on how Germany is managing to keep its fatality rate low. Detection and Isolation is the key.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200326/german ... 000-a-week
On Wall Street, the Krauts are known as the most "Asian" of the Europeans. Their mercantile, export oriented economic policies are a big factor but they are a disciplined lot much like the chini-types. If told to self-quarantined they will do so unlike Italians and Spaniards. They are running a trajectory like South Korea's.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

I guess people are just not paying heed to social distancing and/or lock-down terms...street hawkers are continuing to run businesses as usual and the same goes for customers as well. This was being shown on some Kannada news channel in places like Udupi and apparently in Mandya district as well. This behavior is seen all over the world but given our population/police ratio, enforcing becomes a major challenge. I just hope we don't end up with a runaway situation...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

Krita wrote:
Rsatchi wrote: WION's Palki Sharma is a doing a great job of reporting and questioning the Chinese and the WHO for their mishandling of the Wuhan Coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/palkisu/status/1243054907554320385
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Bart S »

Tomorrow will be the first major challenge, with the bious insisting on going out to pray in a large group. Also on the radar is Eid during the last week of April. Hope PAC and other forces are called out or put on standby.
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