Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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kvraghav
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 27 Mar 2020 11:45

With the random testing approach, how would you know if the person was infected before and is now cured? After so many days of infection in the country, such people will be of large numbers more than the asymptomatic carriers. That's why india is going with antibody test approach from next week. Very intelligent move than what we think here.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 27 Mar 2020 11:51

yensoy wrote:BTW the most useful people, the supermen and superwomen of these episode are the healthy recovered cases. They probably have the antibodies in place to fight this off, permanently. There must be some way to use these people in the frontline of the war against Wuhanvirus. We should learn from others experience in this regard.

Any fully recovered case below 35 years of age should be offered lifetime govt employment in lieu for their time for the next 1 year on the frontlines. It is the best investment we can make.


A friend of mine a microbiologist said the blood samples from those who have recovered is very important and used as a base to develop the vaccines. So I am sure we must be collecting thier blood to analyse and develop vaccines.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 27 Mar 2020 11:58

But their blood cannot be used for cure I think in large numbers. The antibodies start diminishing once the virus is dead and will go to zero within 6 months. The cell memory will produce it when the virus arrives next. What we need to do is to catch hold of these people and keep injecting them with virus keep drawing thier blood and use the plasma. Not possible.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sid » 27 Mar 2020 12:16

IMHO “Test more” means perform one test per household in known clusters. This is not advocating for some meaningless testing, but to get more accurate data on affected cases. Send case workers to those communities to gather tests from known cluster, treat it like collecting census data. SARS during 2003 period was aggressive too, but effective quarantine and travel restrictions eventually bought it under control.

You can quarantine only when u know who should be quarantined.

I apologize if people feel tired when talking about it, but this may not be sustainable in long run if new cases keeps on increasing exponentially.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 27 Mar 2020 12:24

kvraghav wrote:With the random testing approach, how would you know if the person was infected before and is now cured? After so many days of infection in the country, such people will be of large numbers more than the asymptomatic carriers. That's why india is going with antibody test approach from next week. Very intelligent move than what we think here.


Who is providing the anti body test? Is it Indian or foreign?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 27 Mar 2020 12:41

has anyone come across any research paper (not blogs/news/articles) on effect of lockdown on psychology of people? i believe this will leave a big scar on humanity after Corona virus issue is over the whole wold will be a different place to be in.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 27 Mar 2020 13:09

USA is rapidly ramping up testing. The numbers are all over the place but seem around 50,000 per day. This level of testing gives us a better idea of spread of Chinese Virus.

Some New Studies from France show around 1500+500 sick, with only 15 deaths after treatment of various types.

My guess is that mortality rate in developed nations for death/infected is 1% while mortality rate for death/symptomatic patients is 5%.

Some UK studies are claiming that 90% of deaths take place in patients who would have died even without coronavirus within 1 year due to other medical reasons.

There is no clarity on how many get infected on exposure ie natural resistance or immunity rate. Estimate is 10% to 60% infection rate. I will go with 10% infection rate looking at Kanika Singh episode. (Almost (All?) everyone in India escaped unscathed).

Hence in India with a young population, natural immunity & hot weather, death rate should be negligible. The problem is painful lead up to death which will overwhelm the medical system.

In my view we would require minimum 10,000 ICU Beds & ventilators only for coronavirus patients unless Hydroxychloroquine based treatments work.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 27 Mar 2020 13:40

Gyan wrote:My guess is that mortality rate in developed nations for death/infected is 1% while mortality rate for death/symptomatic patients is 5%.

Some UK studies are claiming that 90% of deaths take place in patients who would have died even without coronavirus within 1 year due to other medical reasons.
.

Where are you getting this data from? If what you are telling is true then why is whole world locking up and suffering? Is it realy worth. Probably we would have been living in this world like how we live with flu.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby habal » 27 Mar 2020 13:42

nvishal wrote:The Pakistani military has gone in shock and are trying to impose a lockdown without an endgame.


they have recalled brother of nawaz sharif who was cm of punjab back to pakistan to tackle the indicisiveness of IM-led admin.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 27 Mar 2020 14:21

Collateral damage has started https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/farmers-left-stranded-with-fruit-and-veggies-lying-in-the-fields/articleshow/74836863.cms Farmers left stranded with fruit and veggies lying in the fields

No point throwing some lakh crore rupees here, or reducing repo rates, or delaying EMI payments if the rewards of the land are not harvested, processed, transported and reached to the consumer in a timely manner. I would much prefer seeing the Minister of Health, Agriculture, Home on TV rather than FM. Money is "maya" at this point in time. What matters is the actual exploitation of goods and resources we have to the fullest.

Curfew passes should be available for farm and food industry labour within a week.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby srin » 27 Mar 2020 14:26

sudarshan wrote:[...]
That means, from having 33% day-on-day increase in cumulative case count, it is now about 20%. But the more important metric, I feel, is the ratio of day's increase to previous day's increase. This has to fall below 1 for the surge to peter out. Italy seems tantalizingly close to 1 (which is basically the linear stage). US is around 1.1 to 1.2. Spain and UK are taking over from Italy though.
[...]


That slope is really important. More on the math part of epidemics here (stats are a bit dated now).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 27 Mar 2020 14:40

hanumadu wrote:
kvraghav wrote: That's why india is going with antibody test approach from next week. Very intelligent move than what we think here.


Who is providing the anti body test? Is it Indian or foreign?

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/he ... 818887.cms

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 27 Mar 2020 14:43

One thing that is happening is also the usage of ventilators. The average day spent in ventilator is as high as 30 days. In india it is less, the hospital simply says to pull the plug after 4 days if no improvement. This is not the case with developed world.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 27 Mar 2020 15:51

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/worl ... -news.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Has More Cases Than Any Other Country
At least 85,000 people have been infected in the United States. As states pleaded for supplies, the White House canceled a plan to produce thousands of ventilators.
RIGHT NOW President Trump shifts his tone on China, praising it for its handling of what he recently called the “Chinese virus.”
The U.S. now leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases. Scientists warned that the United States someday would become the country hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. That moment arrived on Thursday.
In the United States, at least 85,000 people are known to have been infected with the coronavirus, including more than 1,200 deaths — more cases than China, Italy or any other country has seen, according to data gathered by The New York Times.
With 330 million residents, the United States is the world’s third most populous nation, meaning it provides a vast pool of people who can potentially get Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. And it is a sprawling, cacophonous democracy, where states set their own policies and President Trump has sent mixed messages about the scale of the danger and how to fight it, ensuring there was no coherent, unified response to a grave public health threat.
.....
Gautam
PS Today I traveled to Modesto, California, a city about 45 min car ride to the north to a doctor's appointment. I was surprised by the volume of traffic on the freeway. Obviously, everyone was driving around. Restaurants are open for take out only, and many deliver food to you. But all groceries are open, and so are many shops in Modesto. This will cause thousands to fall sick in the coming weeks.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 27 Mar 2020 16:01

g.sarkar wrote:RIGHT NOW President Trump shifts his tone on China, praising it for its handling of what he recently called the “Chinese virus.”
The U.S. now leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases. Scientists warned that the United States someday would become the country hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. That moment arrived on Thursday.


This is really puzzling to me. China has created havoc that no one has done. Yet the whole world is not thinking of punishing it. If it has succeeded in containing this virus to one province or city how come the whole world has locked itself.
I think our dependence on china has brought us to knees yet no one is talking about punishing it? One has to question how did they control when rest of world could not. If thy did not contain in one province then they have lied.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 27 Mar 2020 16:11

That's what I have telling, China took no control measures for 2months. Atleast 5-6 million travelled to from Hubei province to rest of China. Xi is lying and hoping that with a few tens of thousands fatalities this will sail through. Unless there is significant spike in deaths and the Chinese people realise something is wrong, Chinese state will simply not report the information.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 27 Mar 2020 16:20

madhu wrote:This is really puzzling to me. China has created havoc that no one has done. Yet the whole world is not thinking of punishing it. If it has succeeded in containing this virus to one province or city how come the whole world has locked itself.
I think our dependence on china has brought us to knees yet no one is talking about punishing it? One has to question how did they control when rest of world could not. If thy did not contain in one province then they have lied.

In my opinion:
1. DT is erratic. Tomorrow he may change his tone again. US is now going to suffer due to his earlier inaction.
2. It is more important to deal with CV right now. China will be dealt with later on once the situation is less serious.
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 27 Mar 2020 16:48

DT has no options. He had to change his tone (he would be dying inside) to get ventilators and other medical equipment on an urgent basis from China. All his efforts to quickly make ventilators and N95 masks and generic medicines are going nowhere because China controls the manufacturing of these (incl pharmaceutical APIs). The quid pro quo would be to do it as a hush hush govt deal so save face for Orange in exchange for him putting the spotlight on China and calling it china virus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby prashanth » 27 Mar 2020 17:19

ToI reporting that British PM tested positive to Wuhan virus.

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/uk/bri ... 847519.cms
Last edited by prashanth on 27 Mar 2020 17:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 27 Mar 2020 17:22

madhu wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:RIGHT NOW President Trump shifts his tone on China, praising it for its handling of what he recently called the “Chinese virus.”
The U.S. now leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases. Scientists warned that the United States someday would become the country hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. That moment arrived on Thursday.


This is really puzzling to me. China has created havoc that no one has done. Yet the whole world is not thinking of punishing it. If it has succeeded in containing this virus to one province or city how come the whole world has locked itself.
I think our dependence on china has brought us to knees yet no one is talking about punishing it? One has to question how did they control when rest of world could not. If thy did not contain in one province then they have lied.


Actually, punishing Cheen for the virus was all that the Trump administration and the Republican party was talking about while the situation was spiraling out of control. It is really disconcerting. Just get the damn house in order first, please.

The defining issue now in the US is the administration did nothing after after it imposed a ban on travel from Cheen and then sat around until the virus came through the backdoor from Europe.

And how would anyone punish Cheen right now? Isolate it? Except for medical supplies that people can't get anywhere else, nobody's buying chit from them. Their export engine and factories had been shut for two months.

Punishment for Cheen will come after the outbreak, the world can embargo them to actual effect when trade comes back. Worrying about punishing them now is meaningless when trade is already dead for them.

Also punishing a nation for a disease will open a pandora's box that will put every form of trade and travel in danger. This is already one of the topics in US business circles because of the rhetoric from Trump officials.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 27 Mar 2020 17:36

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 27 Mar 2020 17:46

prashanth wrote:ToI reporting that British PM tested positive to Wuhan virus.

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/uk/bri ... 847519.cms


Hats off to him. That's seriously leading from the front on herd immunity.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 27 Mar 2020 17:55

chola wrote:Hats off to him. That's seriously leading from the front on herd immunity.

What a statesman, more importantly,would the person to take up the mantle be one rishi sunak, the current hm?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 27 Mar 2020 17:56

Chola...:lol: that's a seriously funny comment about the Brit PM.

Reference to your last para in the earlier post - what are the US businesses actually worried about, that they could get blamed in future if a virus comes out of US? What do they see as incorrect in the current stream of criticism?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rsatchi » 27 Mar 2020 18:01

ricky_v wrote:
chola wrote:Hats off to him. That's seriously leading from the front on herd immunity.

What a statesman, more importantly,would the person to take up the mantle be one rishi sunak, the current hm?

He is the Chancellor of Exchequer i.e., Finance Minister.
Rumours are it will be Hancock and the Tories have decided on the succession if case anything happens!!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 27 Mar 2020 18:04

Rsatchi wrote:He is the Chancellor of Exchequer i.e., Finance Minister.
Rumours are it will be Hancock and the Tories have decided on the succession if case anything happens!!

Ah, thanks for the info sir.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rsatchi » 27 Mar 2020 18:05

^^ Are bhai Sir/Vir chodo, Rajesh bhass hai!! :lol:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 27 Mar 2020 18:21

It is impossible to predict what Trump will say or do. One day its #chinavirus, we'll deal with China once the epidemic is over etc. The next day he says #coronavirus and "much respect!"


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Just finished a very good conversation with President Xi of China. Discussed in great detail the CoronaVirus that is ravaging large parts of our Planet. China has been through much & has developed a strong understanding of the Virus. We are working closely together. Much respect!
1:19 AM · Mar 27, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SandeepA » 27 Mar 2020 18:24

So their crown prince and their prime minister are both infected. Will the beebeecee still wail about mismanagement in india?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 27 Mar 2020 18:28

Crossed 800 today. Rapid rise. I expect the next 2-3 days to see rapid rise, as lot of people came in between 21-23. 5 days incubation period cases coming up.


Reporting 843 now.

https://www.covid19india.org/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby a_bharat » 27 Mar 2020 18:54

nam wrote:Crossed 800 today. Rapid rise. I expect the next 2-3 days to see rapid rise, as lot of people came in between 21-23. 5 days incubation period cases coming up.


Reporting 843 now.

https://www.covid19india.org/


The official site https://mohfw.gov.in/ has not yet updated the count (still 724).

https://www.covid19india.org/ has the following in its FAQ:

Are you official?
No

Then who are you?
We are a group of dedicated volunteers who are curating the news coming from state bulletins, press releases and news houses. We extract the details, like patient relationship to other patient (to identify local and community transmissions), travel history and status. We never collect or expose any personally identifiable data regarding the patients.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 27 Mar 2020 18:56

^^ Is this official? Per the official site, these are the numbers, as of this morning:

Code: Select all

CONFIRMED   ACTIVE   RECOVERED/MIGRATED   DEATH#
724         640      67                  17

Source: http://covidindiaupdates.in/index.php

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 27 Mar 2020 19:01

Kerala reports 39 new cases. The reason for the big jump. 34 in Kasargoad. I think Kasargoad is now becoming a epicenter.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 27 Mar 2020 19:05

One of the issues we have discussed here and in family hangouts at home has been the huge discrepancy between the morbidity and mortality caused by this virus in different parts of the world. As physicians we all know and understand the concept of the 'dose of the inoculum' and the inherent immunity of the individual. I have always felt these two things to be the most important determinants of the outcome.

Here is a beautifully written article by Siddhartha Mukherjee (of the "Emperor of Maladies" fame) in the New Yorker talking about the same phenomenon. Well worth a read for everyone. It seems to be behind a paywall but if you pull down the popup you can still read it.

I personally believe while we may all do our best to protect ourselves, it is quite likely that many of us here will be infected. Building up your immunity, making sure your BP and diabetes is well controlled etc is of paramount importance. The best way to keep your defenses up is to get enough sleep, enough exercise and to eat well. I know, simple things but they have a profound effect on our physiology.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020 ... -a-patient

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 27 Mar 2020 19:11

yensoy wrote:Collateral damage has started https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/farmers-left-stranded-with-fruit-and-veggies-lying-in-the-fields/articleshow/74836863.cms Farmers left stranded with fruit and veggies lying in the fields

No point throwing some lakh crore rupees here, or reducing repo rates, or delaying EMI payments if the rewards of the land are not harvested, processed, transported and reached to the consumer in a timely manner. I would much prefer seeing the Minister of Health, Agriculture, Home on TV rather than FM. Money is "maya" at this point in time. What matters is the actual exploitation of goods and resources we have to the fullest.

Curfew passes should be available for farm and food industry labour within a week.

Sirjee, on the one hand, you are advocating more testing, and if that reveals greater numbers as you seem to imply, these farmers are not even going to step on to their fields due to sheer panic, nor would anyone step out of their homes to buy their produce (same outcome). On the other hand, you are saying the govt's fiscal and food security measures (worth ₹3,74,00,00,00,000 crores) to address these very groups' distress is of no consequence, and that you'd rather see the agriculture minister on television - to say what, exactly?

Fact is, there is no panic buying and shops are open with ample supplies, and the cost of perishables has not increased. Under the circumstances, that's a remarkable achievement, some niggles notwithstanding. Such a big move will have some immediate consequence till things stabilize - we can't keep complaining at the drop of a hat. I am sure if Radha Mohan Singh had showed up on TV, NS would have been pilloried for hiding somewhere and not being front and centre of the response.

But then, some people can never be satisfied, I suppose.

P.S. Media will do its best to blow things out of proportion, but we at BRF ought to be more discerning.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby prashanth » 27 Mar 2020 19:22

Rsatchi wrote:
ricky_v wrote:What a statesman, more importantly,would the person to take up the mantle be one rishi sunak, the current hm?

He is the Chancellor of Exchequer i.e., Finance Minister.
Rumours are it will be Hancock and the Tories have decided on the succession if case anything happens!!


Now Mr. Hancock says he is also tested positive. Source TOI.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ranneel » 27 Mar 2020 19:27

a_bharat wrote:
Are you official?
No

Then who are you?
We are a group of dedicated volunteers who are curating the news coming from state bulletins, press releases and news houses. We extract the details, like patient relationship to other patient (to identify local and community transmissions), travel history and status. We never collect or expose any personally identifiable data regarding the patients.


That site is quite reliable. The increase was 69 till Kerala reported 39 cases so +108. Now +126.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 27 Mar 2020 19:36

Looks like most of the hotbeds are people from the gulf. I am wondering how is the middle east nations reporting so less numbers?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 27 Mar 2020 19:40

Bengaluru based oncologist says his team has found a potential cure using cytokines

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 27 Mar 2020 19:44

nam wrote:Crossed 800 today. Rapid rise. I expect the next 2-3 days to see rapid rise, as lot of people came in between 21-23. 5 days incubation period cases coming up.


Reporting 843 now.

https://www.covid19india.org/


Not rapid rise. It is a controlled linear ascent. India is holding against the tide well.

What happen here is a rapid rise, it is exponential:
Image

GOI's lockdown when the cases are still in the hundreds is designed to prevent that exponential explosion upwards.

The US did not start a lockdown until there were thousands of cases.


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