Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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chanakyaa
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

Some non-anglo perspective on what may be working/being tried etc.

Why Is Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate So Low?
...According to experts, Germany’s case fatality rate is so low due to its widespread testing. “In some countries only very symptomatic cases are tested (e.g. in Italy) and in others a broader testing strategy is done (e.g. in Germany),” writes Dr. Dietrich Rothenbacher, the director of the Institute for Epidemiology at Ulm University in Germany,
...
Even though Germany and Italy’s populations have similar average ages—they’re the two most elderly nations in the European Union—the median age of Germany’s population known to be infected by COVID-19 is lower: 46 as opposed to Italy’s 63. Smeeth says the lower average age is likely to just be a side effect of widespread testing. “If you are testing more people, then you will get a much younger age distribution of positive cases,” Smeeth says. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that the true age distribution of the virus is radically different between the two countries.”
Saudis Deploy Clerics to Say Fighting Virus Isn’t Anti-Islamic
...
In slick videos produced by government institutions, the clerics reinforce the message in soundbites urging social-distancing, highlighting a Muslim’s duty to preserve life and extolling the measures taken by King Salman against coronavirus. One featuring several members of the Council of Senior Scholars showed them rubbing their hands with sanitizer before addressing the faithful.
...
brar_w
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by brar_w »

srai wrote:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1 million cases
50,000 deaths

5% death rate average
That is an inflated number based on testing. The denominator completely ignores those who were never tested or those who remained asymptomatic or were otherwise not hospitalized. It also takes the Chinese communist party data at face value. For all we know, China could have under-reported by an order of magnitude. The "global" data also does not fully capture what is happening in small pockets or nations where things have gotten out of control. A similar formula, when applied to Italy, would get a number closer to 11% while the same for the US is only 2.3% currently. Similarly, New York has a # that is 2X that of Florida for example. It is a function of how much you have tested, and also how concentrated your cases are.
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

schinnas wrote:It is frustrating to see people constantly complain about lack of testing in India. Can more tests be done, yes, but it is a stupid strategy? Because once a person is negative, does not mean they will stay negative. So they would need to be tested again and again.
Agreed. Not sure how many times this has to be reiterated - all those posts explaining why mass testing is not useful in the Indian contexts taken together would itself fill a couple of pages. I do wish people would read before posting the same thing over and over again.
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

About this Nizamuddin tableeghi crap, I am curious about one thing.

When Kanika Kapoor was symptomatic (and has since been tested +ve 5 consecutive times, poor woman) and attended the closed door party with a bunch of people, none of the others got infected. Of course, their self-imposed isolation helped contain the fallout, but to my knowledge, no one else complained about developing symptoms (please correct if I am mistaken).

But with this tableeghi idiots, what did they do in that confounded place that most of them came out infected? What gives?
Kaivalya
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kaivalya »

arshyam wrote:About this Nizamuddin tableeghi crap, I am curious about one thing.

When Kanika Kapoor was symptomatic (and has since been tested +ve 5 consecutive times, poor woman) and attended the closed door party with a bunch of people, none of the others got infected. Of course, their self-imposed isolation helped contain the fallout, but to my knowledge, no one else complained about developing symptoms (please correct if I am mistaken).

But with this tableeghi idiots, what did they do in that confounded place that most of them came out infected? What gives?
Saar...please do a google on namaz postures. In close quarters, 5 times a day you basically touch everything and your face.

Or you do something like this ( Australia, speeding on the way to covid testing )

https://www.reddit.com/r/Whatcouldgowro ... _coptwice/
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Kanika 'Covid' Kapoor, would not have been spitting, sneezing or coughing without covering. But these illiterate idiots would not have taken care (spitting jihad?)? I am sure they also did not have enough toilets. Previous SAR-COV was isolated from urine and stool samples but so far, if it is the same about SAR-COV2, is not known (CDC). Also, where did these 1500 people sleep during the four days?
SRajesh
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRajesh »

arshyam wrote:About this Nizamuddin tableeghi crap, I am curious about one thing.

When Kanika Kapoor was symptomatic (and has since been tested +ve 5 consecutive times, poor woman) and attended the closed door party with a bunch of people, none of the others got infected. Of course, their self-imposed isolation helped contain the fallout, but to my knowledge, no one else complained about developing symptoms (please correct if I am mistaken).

But with this tableeghi idiots, what did they do in that confounded place that most of them came out infected? What gives?
Arshyamji:
One reason could be the eating habit.
Have U ever attended a Peaceful Wedding feast, U would then know what I mean
Even though KK attended party, it wasn't an old style 'Rubella Party' or the new style 'Pox Party'(https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... X36U6KwEhV, link for FY!). :lol: :lol:
Mostly likely communal eating/drinking habit.
suryag
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by suryag »

Just in, my friend from Vizag called, apparently one of the TJ returnees went around every Muslim home in their area to bless them and now he has turned positive, most likely the area will be cordoned off
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arvin »

arshyam wrote:About this Nizamuddin tableeghi crap, I am curious about one thing.

When Kanika Kapoor was symptomatic (and has since been tested +ve 5 consecutive times, poor woman) and attended the closed door party with a bunch of people, none of the others got infected. Of course, their self-imposed isolation helped contain the fallout, but to my knowledge, no one else complained about developing symptoms (please correct if I am mistaken).

But with this tableeghi idiots, what did they do in that confounded place that most of them came out infected? What gives?
My theory is since those guys are living a version of Islam as it was in 7 AD. That means no TV, no Mobile, no Broadband but also no vaccinations.
As per the link below, there might be a co-relation between fewer deaths\infections in countries with mandatory BCG vaccinations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tb-vaccine
So to add to the above reasons given by posters, I feel there is a possibe link between BCG vaccination and infections.
The vaccination might reduce the odds of infection or help in recovery if infected.
It would be interesting to see how many of those TaB-leaguey members who are infected have a vaccination history.
Last edited by arvin on 02 Apr 2020 21:08, edited 2 times in total.
Mollick.R
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mollick.R »

arshyam wrote:
schinnas wrote:It is frustrating to see people constantly complain about lack of testing in India. Can more tests be done, yes, but it is a stupid strategy? Because once a person is negative, does not mean they will stay negative. So they would need to be tested again and again.
Agreed. Not sure how many times this has to be reiterated - all those posts explaining why mass testing is not useful in the Indian contexts taken together would itself fill a couple of pages. I do wish people would read before posting the same thing over and over again.
For past several days what I'm observing in various whatsapp & telegram groups of friends/family/colleagues there is lots taunting & flaks by leftists & peacefuls on this single most point that "India is not doing enough testing as compared to x y z country" blah blah blah............. and GOI ia failing / will fail on fight against ChinaVirus19 only because of not doing enough testing. They are just throwing up DDM articles by Chindu/India 2day etc and constantly hammering GOI.

I try to counter those narratives as much as possible with whatever counter argument points I gather from BRF and Internet (like health authorities of Finland saying WHO to Fu(k Aff on it's guidelines etc).

Thus a very important request to Gurus here. If someone can write a pointwise and well articulated rebuttal piece on this subject (Irrelevance of Mass Testing in Indian Context) and get it published through dharmic media outlets like Swarajya or Opindia.

Believe me this will help us a lot to fight the battle of narratives with peacefulls and their handlers.

Please do consider.
Last edited by Mollick.R on 02 Apr 2020 21:08, edited 1 time in total.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Please maintain some etiquette, if you must provide assertions on treatment, you have a responsibility to post a reference. I cannot make it any simpler than this. It otherwise undermines your credibility as well as intelligence.
Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Although, the current situation is very much fluid (& with recent up tick in number of vases due to Tableeghi crap) and with almost two more weeks to go...anything can happen wrt to lock-down continuation.

But it seems like the thought process today from PM/PMO is not extending the lock-down any further. They are thinking along the lines of Dr. Ratnadip...probably continuation of lock-down for high-risk groups and staggered movements for younger folks in non-essential industries/institutions.

I assume WFH directions will continue for folks who can avail it and staggered attendances for other non-essential industries i.e. make batches of employees and let them work alternate weeks or in non-overlapping shifts if possible (6AM - 2PM...first round of disinfection if possible and another shift of 3PM-11PM...second round of disinfection). In many IT companies where WFH is not available, the batches allotment are based on seating arrangements i.e. no two employees should be seated nearer than 6-10ft.

Also if possible, ask all employees to follow basic security measures like wearing latex/nitrile glove, mask and safety glasses to prevent people from inadvertently touching nose, mouth & eyes. Of course, challenge will be in procuring these items in the numbers required especially when the healthcare & other first responders folks may be facing PPE shortage.

Need Plan For "Staggered" Movement Of People After Lockdown: PM To States
New Delhi: The centre and states must have a common plan to ensure staggered movement of people after the national lockdown ends, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said today at a video-conference with Chief Ministers on coronavirus which, he remarked, was threatening our way of life.

"It is important to formulate a common exit strategy to ensure staggered re-emergence of the population once the lockdown ends," PM Modi emphasised, according to a statement giving details of the interaction. He asked states to send their suggestions for such an exit strategy.

The PM also said it "can't be business as usual" after the lockdown and certain safeguards would have to be taken, according to the statement. States must enforce the lockdown "seriously", he said, urging them to stick to social distancing.

States were asked to "work on war footing, identify virus hotspots and encircle them" to contain the infection. The focus for the next few weeks must be testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine, the Prime Minister told states.

The goal, he said, was to ensure minimum loss of life, and observed that the global situation was "far from satisfactory" with speculation of a second wave in some countries.
Last edited by Zynda on 02 Apr 2020 21:20, edited 1 time in total.
Bart S
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Bart S »

arshyam wrote:When Kanika Kapoor was symptomatic (and has since been tested +ve 5 consecutive times, poor woman)
They are just following the 'Test! Test! Test!' motto of that Tedros guy. :mrgreen:
Gyan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Gyan »

Test test is not possible. Even South Korea, which is considered the best in testing less than 1% of its population.

Better to give Hydroxychloroquine or Chloroquine as prophylaxis for high risk personal, unless they have counter indications.

And Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin +Zn+vitamin C to any patient on clinical diagnosis without waiting for test results at the earliest available opportunity. (Same principle is adopted for treatment of numerous infectious diseases)
Malayappan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Malayappan »

Mollick.R wrote:Thus a very important request to Gurus here. If someone can write a pointwise and well articulated rebuttal piece on this subject (Irrelevance of Mass Testing in Indian Context) and get it published through dharmic media outlets like Swarajya or Opindia.
The first one in Swarajya written two weeks back..
No, India’s Covid-19 Cases Are Not Low Because We Are Testing Less
Since then testing scope has been broadened (as of 20th)
hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

arshyam wrote:About this Nizamuddin tableeghi crap, I am curious about one thing.

When Kanika Kapoor was symptomatic (and has since been tested +ve 5 consecutive times, poor woman) and attended the closed door party with a bunch of people, none of the others got infected. Of course, their self-imposed isolation helped contain the fallout, but to my knowledge, no one else complained about developing symptoms (please correct if I am mistaken).

But with this tableeghi idiots, what did they do in that confounded place that most of them came out infected? What gives?
They probably ate from the same plate. They stay closed together for days like pigs rolling in mud. They mostly likely drank from the same glass.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1245733232240402433
#Update: A resident doctor of AIIMS who was tested positive for COVID19 earlier today, his 9 months pregnant wife (a doctor posted at Emergency) has also been tested positive. She has been isolated and her delivery will take place at AIIMS.
:roll:

https://twitter.com/epigiri/status/1245728258760396801
In another state government, a senior bureaucrat was reportedly pressurizing the district magistrates to seek fewer #PPE’s. Why do the states treat #PPEs as luxury?
Request @narendramodi @NITIAayog @PMOIndia
to immediately address these issues. Let’s help HCWs before it’s late
suryag
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by suryag »

Apart from the unhygienic practices mentioned above, if you every have seen the process of wudhu(cleansing before praying) at a mosque, you will know how easy it is for corona ji to spread, check it out
Kati
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kati »

brar_w wrote:
srai wrote:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1 million cases
50,000 deaths

5% death rate average
That is an inflated number based on testing. The denominator completely ignores those who were never tested or those who remained asymptomatic or were otherwise not hospitalized. It also takes the Chinese communist party data at face value. For all we know, China could have under-reported by an order of magnitude. The "global" data also does not fully capture what is happening in small pockets or nations where things have gotten out of control. A similar formula, when applied to Italy, would get a number closer to 11% while the same for the US is only 2.3% currently. Similarly, New York has a # that is 2X that of Florida for example. It is a function of how much you have tested, and also how concentrated your cases are.
Look at the worldometer figures, and focus on the "closed cases".
Two weeks ago, the recovery rate was nearly 90%.
Then a week ago it dropped to 85%.
Now it has come down to 80%.
This is a bit alarming.
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Karnataka has gone to Supreme court over the border closure b/w Mlore & Kasargoad.

As I mentioned previously, Karnataka will not easily open up the border.
sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

Kati wrote: Look at the worldometer figures, and focus on the "closed cases".
Two weeks ago, the recovery rate was nearly 90%.
Then a week ago it dropped to 85%.
Now it has come down to 80%.
This is a bit alarming.
Did you also notice that it started from 58% on Feb 2, before going to almost 95% around March 5? It has been dropping from March 5.

The initial data from China showed 58% recovery, 42% death rate of closed cases. Then as the China situation evolved, it went to 95% recovery, 5% death of closed cases. Then the rest of the world started having cases.

I think it's simply a case of deaths and recoveries happening on two different time scales. Deaths happen faster (week or two from symptoms), recoveries happen a lot slower (3 to 6 weeks). In fact, on worldometer, you can see the recovery rate starting to slow down its rate of fall, and showing signs of inflecting upwards.
hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

https://twitter.com/rajshekharTOI/statu ... 47872?s=20
Raj Shekhar Jha
@rajshekharTOI
CMO Ghaziabad complains to UP police that Tablighi Jamaat members in quarantine are walking around without trousers on, listening to vulgar songs, asking for bidi cigarette from nurse and staff and making obscene gestures towards nurses. Asks police to restrain them.
Other things they are doing include spitting every where and urinating outside the bath rooms.
Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

What is disconcerting is that even though testing has increased considerably (in the US for example) the death rate has increased along with the denominator. Not good. I was expecting it to start falling. Still, one presumes that the number of infected cases everywhere are a lot higher and so the CFR will be lower.
SRoy
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRoy »

^^
So, why this whining on BRF about Jamaatis misbehaving?
sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

Because by misbehaving in certain ways, they greatly enhance disease spread.
SRoy
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRoy »

^^

They will do as they please. Tum kya ukhad loge?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by kvraghav »

nam wrote:Karnataka has gone to Supreme court over the border closure b/w Mlore & Kasargoad.

As I mentioned previously, Karnataka will not easily open up the border.
Yes and Kerala HC does not any grounds to order karnataka on this. The karnatka govt should get a arrest warrant against Kerala home minister for getting the CM convoy attacked because looks like Kerala HC feels it can pass order on any jurisdiction as long as Kerala people are involved.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

sudarshan wrote:[Deaths happen faster (week or two from symptoms), recoveries happen a lot slower (3 to 6 weeks). .
How do we know this? Iirc, the Thomas puay study shows that the period from incubation start to death is about 20 days. Cures should take the same time?
Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

hanumadu wrote:https://twitter.com/rajshekharTOI/statu ... 47872?s=20
Raj Shekhar Jha
@rajshekharTOI
CMO Ghaziabad complains to UP police that Tablighi Jamaat members in quarantine are walking around without trousers on, listening to vulgar songs, asking for bidi cigarette from nurse and staff and making obscene gestures towards nurses. Asks police to restrain them.
Other things they are doing include spitting every where and urinating outside the bath rooms.
They need to get this on camera and have it telecast to the whole world. People should know what sort of scum we are dealing with.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by DrRatnadip »

I would like to share my personal understanding about COVID 19 here.. This is just summary of what most of us already know..
we can group infected individuals in three groups..
Group(A )Infected but asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms which people tend to ignore.. These individuals comprise largest percentage in COVID population.. Doctors label them as ILI (influenza like illness) ..
Group B Infected Patients who show moderate symptoms like slight tightness in chest/ mild breathlessness/ fever..
we can again subdivide group B in two subgroups..
B1 ) These patients respond quickly to suportive symptomatic treatment and more likely to come down to Group A
B2) These patients require more extensive treatment but can be managed without ICU care.. But chances of detoriation are still there..
Group C) These are patients requiring ICU care and can further be categorised in two groups
C1) Pt who respond to treatment and show improvement if current treatment protocols are followed..
C2) These group of patients show rapid detoriation and do not seem to respond to any available therapy.. This is most fulminant form of disease leading to almost certain death.. significant proportion of C2 also have myocardial involvement and generalized bone marrow depression..

Absolute number of patients falling in each one of above category is different in different countries.. Obvious factors involved in this divide are demographic characteristics of population, prevalence of various co morbidities like diabetes/COPD/cardiac ailments, smoking habits and even average BMI of population..

Fortunately in India number of individuals going in Group C2 seems significantly low.. Having young population and early lockdown is definitely advantageous in this regard..
I belive instead of futile testing in all sypmtomatic individuals we should focus our limited resources on early detection and treatement of patients who are more likely to land up in Group C2..
Most of patients in group A and B1 are likely recover and contribute to herd immunity.. We need to develop simple scoring system to identify individuals who are more likely to fall in group A or B1.. So that we can allow gradual withdrawal of lockdown for them.. Remaining can continue social distancing for extended time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed.. I hope soon we can comeup with effective vaccine to protect individuals with high risk too..
Extended lockdown for all is counterproductive.. Extensive testing is costly and wastage of resources..
Last edited by DrRatnadip on 02 Apr 2020 23:16, edited 5 times in total.
madhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by madhu »

A very intresting paper.
Based on mathematical modeling the conclution are arrived at.
Summary of paper
1) lockdown in 11 countries have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
2) Between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected up to 28th March, (1.88% and 11.43% of the population)
3) Attack rate, highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway
4) Lag of 2-3 weeks between transmission changes and deaths
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

DrRatnadip wrote:Extensive testing is costly and wastage of resources..
Thank you sharing your very informed thoughts. Here is another data point that bolsters your point. The testing in the US is giving about 33% false negatives. Thus testing masses does not provide any assurance that it will curtail the spread of virus.

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry
Experts believe nearly one in three infected patients are nevertheless getting negative test results
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Mollick.R wrote:
arshyam wrote: Agreed. Not sure how many times this has to be reiterated - all those posts explaining why mass testing is not useful in the Indian contexts taken together would itself fill a couple of pages. I do wish people would read before posting the same thing over and over again.
For past several days what I'm observing in various whatsapp & telegram groups of friends/family/colleagues there is lots taunting & flaks by leftists & peacefuls on this single most point that "India is not doing enough testing as compared to x y z country" blah blah blah............. and GOI ia failing / will fail on fight against ChinaVirus19 only because of not doing enough testing. They are just throwing up DDM articles by Chindu/India 2day etc and constantly hammering GOI.

I try to counter those narratives as much as possible with whatever counter argument points I gather from BRF and Internet (like health authorities of Finland saying WHO to Fu(k Aff on it's guidelines etc).

Thus a very important request to Gurus here. If someone can write a pointwise and well articulated rebuttal piece on this subject (Irrelevance of Mass Testing in Indian Context) and get it published through dharmic media outlets like Swarajya or Opindia.

Believe me this will help us a lot to fight the battle of narratives with peacefulls and their handlers.

Please do consider.
NO . Don't do that.

You cannot wake someone pretending to sleep. Bonus analogy: don't feed trolls.

The whole point of their argument is to make you take the time and effort to 'collect nicely thought out and clear rebuttals' while they get a totally free pass to peddle boole sheet.

Get your message out without worrying about such braying. The MOFHW website has lots of nice graphics easily forwarded. Please use it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

Cain Marko wrote:
sudarshan wrote:[Deaths happen faster (week or two from symptoms), recoveries happen a lot slower (3 to 6 weeks). .
How do we know this? Iirc, the Thomas puay study shows that the period from incubation start to death is about 20 days. Cures should take the same time?
Look at S. Korea for instance, where they got this thing mostly under control weeks ago. Still, 40% of the cases are declared "active" there, only 60% are declared "recovered." Other countries show miniscule fractions of recovered vs. active. Seems to take weeks and weeks for somebody to be declared "recovered," they just stay on the active pile for ages. I think that's what is showing in that closed case outcome graph.

Yeah, nice rebuttals are a waste of time, just focus on calling out the crass behavior of the peacefools, every time somebody brings up "India not testing." Ask them if they think it is possible to test somebody who is pelting stones or firing bullets at you, if so, they should volunteer for the task.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SBajwa »

https://wjactv.com/news/local/upmc-unve ... 19-vaccine

PITTSBURGH (WJAC) — Scientists with the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine have announced a potential vaccine against COVID-19.

Scientists say they’ve tested the vaccine in mice, and it produced antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities they believe could be enough to neutralize the coronavirus.





ADVERTISING

The paper, which appeared in EBioMedicine, is the first study to be published after critique from scientists at outside institutions that identifies a possible vaccine for COVID-19, health officials said.

“We had previous experience on SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2014. These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus,” said co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, M.D., associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine. “That’s why it’s important to fund vaccine research. You never know where the next pandemic will come from.”

“Our ability to rapidly develop this vaccine was a result of scientists with expertise in diverse areas of research working together with a common goal,” said co-senior author Louis Falo, M.D., Ph.D., professor and chair of dermatology at Pitt’s School of Medicine and UPMC.

Scientists say they’re calling the vaccine PittCoVacc, which is short for Pittsburgh Coronavirus Vaccine.

The vaccine works the same as a flu shot, scientists say, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity.

When tested in mice, PittCoVacc created a surge of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 within two weeks of receiving the treatment, scientists say.

Those have not been tracked long term yet.

Scientists say they are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and hope to starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.

“Testing in patients would typically require at least a year and probably longer,” Falo said. “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.”
hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

madhu wrote:A very intresting paper.
Based on mathematical modeling the conclution are arrived at.
Summary of paper
1) lockdown in 11 countries have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
2) Between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected up to 28th March, (1.88% and 11.43% of the population)
3) Attack rate, highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway
4) Lag of 2-3 weeks between transmission changes and deaths
If we assume the paper to be correct, Spain has the highest attack rate of 15%. That's 7 million infected. Confirmed cases in Spain are 110000. That's 1.5% infections being recorded. Spain has a death toll of 10,000. Even if we discount there is a lag between infections and deaths that's 0.15% death rate. That's uncomfortably high.
SBajwa
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SBajwa »

https://www.utimes.pitt.edu/news/pitt-r ... s-announce

By SUSAN JONES
Pitt School of Medicine researchers announced at a news conference today a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, that would work the same way as current flu shots to build up antibodies to the disease.
When tested in mice, the vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities thought to be sufficient for neutralizing the virus.
“We used a genetically engineered cell to make a piece of the spike protein on the outside of SARS coronavirus,” said co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine. “This is the part of the virus that the immune system sees, and when that happened it triggered antibody production, which should protect against viral infection and COVID-19 disease.”
The antigen is delivered through a dissolvable microneedle array directly into those areas of the skin that are made to make an immune response, said co-senior author Louis Falo, professor and chair of dermatology at Pitt’s School of Medicine and UPMC. “And so it results in a very potent vaccine. When you're thinking about how these micronano arrays are actually used in practice, think about them as almost like a Bandaid. The microneedle array is simply applied to the skin topically, pressed into place very shortly. And then taken off and thrown away. And then the antigen is already delivered.
“This vaccine is designed to be safe, in part because it delivers very low doses of antigens, so much lower doses than the traditional flu vaccine,” Falo said. “Secondly, it delivers that antigen to a very confined space within the skin, so that it's very unlikely that we would see any type of systemic responses that have been seen with some patients in the flu vaccine.”
The authors are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in anticipation of starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.
“This process normally takes months to years, but these pandemic conditions are not normal,” Falo said. “The NIH, the FDA and other regulatory agencies have made terrific progress in accelerating this process. Once we get approval from the FDA, we will be ready to start human safety trials.”
The researchers were quizzed several times about a timeline for delivering the vaccine to the public but said that can’t be determined yet because of the regulatory requirements and testing needed.
“We're hoping with the expedited review and all the efforts that the regulatory agencies have made that we can reduce that regulatory process from months to weeks,” Falo said.
Once human testing is approved, “we will be starting with healthy volunteers in the Pittsburgh area,” he said. “Those will be the first cohorts of patients that enter the trial. And we will be basically looking at multiple doses during the course of the trial to find the most effective dose.”
The scientists started working on the vaccine on Jan. 21 and were able to act quickly because they had already laid the groundwork during earlier coronavirus epidemics — SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2014.
“These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus,” Gambotto said.
The Pitt scientist’s work appeared today in EBioMedicine, which is published by The Lancet. It is the first study to be published about a possible COVID-19 vaccine after critique from fellow scientists at outside institutions.
Compared to the experimental mRNA vaccine candidate that just entered clinical trials, the vaccine described in this paper — which the authors are calling PittCoVacc, short for Pittsburgh Coronavirus Vaccine — follows a more established approach, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity. It’s the same way the current flu shots work.
When tested in mice, PittCoVacc generated a surge of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 within two weeks of the microneedle prick.
“This vaccine is the result of a collaboration involving scientists from very diverse fields — vaccinologists, skin biologists, bioengineers and biologists — all coming together to work towards a common goal. That's the type of collaborative environment we have here at Pitt and at UPMC,” Falo said at the news conference.
The potential vaccine and delivery system are highly scalable, according to the researchers. Once manufactured, the vaccine can sit at room temperature until it’s needed, eliminating the need for refrigeration during transport or storage.
“For most vaccines, you don’t need to address scalability to begin with,” Gambotto said. “But when you try to develop a vaccine quickly against a pandemic that’s the first requirement.”
Additional authors on the study are Eun Kim, Geza Erdos, Shaohua Huang, Thomas Kenniston, Stephen Balmert, Cara Donahue Carey, Michael Epperly, William Klimstra, and Emrullah Korkmaz, all of Pitt; and Bart Haagmans, of Erasmus Medical Center.
Funding for this study was provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and the National Cancer Institute.
Susan Jones is editor of the University Times. Reach her at suejones@pitt.edu or 412-648-4294.
nachiket
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nachiket »

Problem with vaccines is that in addition to testing their efficacy it is equally important to test for their safety. People given the vaccine need to be observed over a period of time to establish that the vaccine is safe to use on humans and note any side-effects or contraindications etc. That is why it takes so long to bring vaccines to the market after their development. I am not sure how you can avoid this step even in the pandemic. If the vaccine turns out to have dangerous side effects which were not noticed because the testing duration was curtailed, you can cause a bigger disaster than the pandemic if a large percentage of the human population was vaccinated hurriedly.

Public health professionals like Dr. Anthony Fauci etc. have been warning people not to expect a widely available vaccine for at least a year if not more.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

I saw a reference to this - one of the reasons the west is very reticent about widespread use of the regimens suggested elsewhere, or trying anything experimental, is the Thalidomide tragedy, where it was once considered an essential OTC medication, but later was found to be the cause of widespread birth defects in children.
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Worldwide numbers have crossed a million today.
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