Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 02 Apr 2020 22:57

What is disconcerting is that even though testing has increased considerably (in the US for example) the death rate has increased along with the denominator. Not good. I was expecting it to start falling. Still, one presumes that the number of infected cases everywhere are a lot higher and so the CFR will be lower.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 02 Apr 2020 22:57

^^
So, why this whining on BRF about Jamaatis misbehaving?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 02 Apr 2020 22:59

Because by misbehaving in certain ways, they greatly enhance disease spread.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 02 Apr 2020 23:01

^^

They will do as they please. Tum kya ukhad loge?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 02 Apr 2020 23:01

nam wrote:Karnataka has gone to Supreme court over the border closure b/w Mlore & Kasargoad.

As I mentioned previously, Karnataka will not easily open up the border.

Yes and Kerala HC does not any grounds to order karnataka on this. The karnatka govt should get a arrest warrant against Kerala home minister for getting the CM convoy attacked because looks like Kerala HC feels it can pass order on any jurisdiction as long as Kerala people are involved.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 02 Apr 2020 23:02

sudarshan wrote:[Deaths happen faster (week or two from symptoms), recoveries happen a lot slower (3 to 6 weeks). .

How do we know this? Iirc, the Thomas puay study shows that the period from incubation start to death is about 20 days. Cures should take the same time?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 02 Apr 2020 23:04

hanumadu wrote:https://twitter.com/rajshekharTOI/status/1245740456807247872?s=20

Raj Shekhar Jha
@rajshekharTOI
CMO Ghaziabad complains to UP police that Tablighi Jamaat members in quarantine are walking around without trousers on, listening to vulgar songs, asking for bidi cigarette from nurse and staff and making obscene gestures towards nurses. Asks police to restrain them.


Other things they are doing include spitting every where and urinating outside the bath rooms.

They need to get this on camera and have it telecast to the whole world. People should know what sort of scum we are dealing with.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 02 Apr 2020 23:12

I would like to share my personal understanding about COVID 19 here.. This is just summary of what most of us already know..
we can group infected individuals in three groups..
Group(A )Infected but asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms which people tend to ignore.. These individuals comprise largest percentage in COVID population.. Doctors label them as ILI (influenza like illness) ..
Group B Infected Patients who show moderate symptoms like slight tightness in chest/ mild breathlessness/ fever..
we can again subdivide group B in two subgroups..
B1 ) These patients respond quickly to suportive symptomatic treatment and more likely to come down to Group A
B2) These patients require more extensive treatment but can be managed without ICU care.. But chances of detoriation are still there..
Group C) These are patients requiring ICU care and can further be categorised in two groups
C1) Pt who respond to treatment and show improvement if current treatment protocols are followed..
C2) These group of patients show rapid detoriation and do not seem to respond to any available therapy.. This is most fulminant form of disease leading to almost certain death.. significant proportion of C2 also have myocardial involvement and generalized bone marrow depression..

Absolute number of patients falling in each one of above category is different in different countries.. Obvious factors involved in this divide are demographic characteristics of population, prevalence of various co morbidities like diabetes/COPD/cardiac ailments, smoking habits and even average BMI of population..

Fortunately in India number of individuals going in Group C2 seems significantly low.. Having young population and early lockdown is definitely advantageous in this regard..
I belive instead of futile testing in all sypmtomatic individuals we should focus our limited resources on early detection and treatement of patients who are more likely to land up in Group C2..
Most of patients in group A and B1 are likely recover and contribute to herd immunity.. We need to develop simple scoring system to identify individuals who are more likely to fall in group A or B1.. So that we can allow gradual withdrawal of lockdown for them.. Remaining can continue social distancing for extended time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed.. I hope soon we can comeup with effective vaccine to protect individuals with high risk too..
Extended lockdown for all is counterproductive.. Extensive testing is costly and wastage of resources..
Last edited by DrRatnadip on 02 Apr 2020 23:16, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 02 Apr 2020 23:14

A very intresting paper.
Based on mathematical modeling the conclution are arrived at.
Summary of paper
1) lockdown in 11 countries have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
2) Between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected up to 28th March, (1.88% and 11.43% of the population)
3) Attack rate, highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway
4) Lag of 2-3 weeks between transmission changes and deaths

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Uttam » 03 Apr 2020 00:04

DrRatnadip wrote:Extensive testing is costly and wastage of resources..


Thank you sharing your very informed thoughts. Here is another data point that bolsters your point. The testing in the US is giving about 33% false negatives. Thus testing masses does not provide any assurance that it will curtail the spread of virus.

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry
Experts believe nearly one in three infected patients are nevertheless getting negative test results

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 03 Apr 2020 00:06

Mollick.R wrote:
arshyam wrote:Agreed. Not sure how many times this has to be reiterated - all those posts explaining why mass testing is not useful in the Indian contexts taken together would itself fill a couple of pages. I do wish people would read before posting the same thing over and over again.


For past several days what I'm observing in various whatsapp & telegram groups of friends/family/colleagues there is lots taunting & flaks by leftists & peacefuls on this single most point that "India is not doing enough testing as compared to x y z country" blah blah blah............. and GOI ia failing / will fail on fight against ChinaVirus19 only because of not doing enough testing. They are just throwing up DDM articles by Chindu/India 2day etc and constantly hammering GOI.

I try to counter those narratives as much as possible with whatever counter argument points I gather from BRF and Internet (like health authorities of Finland saying WHO to Fu(k Aff on it's guidelines etc).

Thus a very important request to Gurus here. If someone can write a pointwise and well articulated rebuttal piece on this subject (Irrelevance of Mass Testing in Indian Context) and get it published through dharmic media outlets like Swarajya or Opindia.

Believe me this will help us a lot to fight the battle of narratives with peacefulls and their handlers.

Please do consider.

NO . Don't do that.

You cannot wake someone pretending to sleep. Bonus analogy: don't feed trolls.

The whole point of their argument is to make you take the time and effort to 'collect nicely thought out and clear rebuttals' while they get a totally free pass to peddle boole sheet.

Get your message out without worrying about such braying. The MOFHW website has lots of nice graphics easily forwarded. Please use it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 03 Apr 2020 00:14

Cain Marko wrote:
sudarshan wrote:[Deaths happen faster (week or two from symptoms), recoveries happen a lot slower (3 to 6 weeks). .

How do we know this? Iirc, the Thomas puay study shows that the period from incubation start to death is about 20 days. Cures should take the same time?


Look at S. Korea for instance, where they got this thing mostly under control weeks ago. Still, 40% of the cases are declared "active" there, only 60% are declared "recovered." Other countries show miniscule fractions of recovered vs. active. Seems to take weeks and weeks for somebody to be declared "recovered," they just stay on the active pile for ages. I think that's what is showing in that closed case outcome graph.

Yeah, nice rebuttals are a waste of time, just focus on calling out the crass behavior of the peacefools, every time somebody brings up "India not testing." Ask them if they think it is possible to test somebody who is pelting stones or firing bullets at you, if so, they should volunteer for the task.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SBajwa » 03 Apr 2020 00:28

https://wjactv.com/news/local/upmc-unve ... 19-vaccine

PITTSBURGH (WJAC) — Scientists with the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine have announced a potential vaccine against COVID-19.

Scientists say they’ve tested the vaccine in mice, and it produced antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities they believe could be enough to neutralize the coronavirus.





ADVERTISING

The paper, which appeared in EBioMedicine, is the first study to be published after critique from scientists at outside institutions that identifies a possible vaccine for COVID-19, health officials said.

“We had previous experience on SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2014. These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus,” said co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, M.D., associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine. “That’s why it’s important to fund vaccine research. You never know where the next pandemic will come from.”

“Our ability to rapidly develop this vaccine was a result of scientists with expertise in diverse areas of research working together with a common goal,” said co-senior author Louis Falo, M.D., Ph.D., professor and chair of dermatology at Pitt’s School of Medicine and UPMC.

Scientists say they’re calling the vaccine PittCoVacc, which is short for Pittsburgh Coronavirus Vaccine.

The vaccine works the same as a flu shot, scientists say, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity.

When tested in mice, PittCoVacc created a surge of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 within two weeks of receiving the treatment, scientists say.

Those have not been tracked long term yet.

Scientists say they are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and hope to starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.

“Testing in patients would typically require at least a year and probably longer,” Falo said. “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 03 Apr 2020 00:29

madhu wrote:A very intresting paper.
Based on mathematical modeling the conclution are arrived at.
Summary of paper
1) lockdown in 11 countries have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
2) Between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected up to 28th March, (1.88% and 11.43% of the population)
3) Attack rate, highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway
4) Lag of 2-3 weeks between transmission changes and deaths


If we assume the paper to be correct, Spain has the highest attack rate of 15%. That's 7 million infected. Confirmed cases in Spain are 110000. That's 1.5% infections being recorded. Spain has a death toll of 10,000. Even if we discount there is a lag between infections and deaths that's 0.15% death rate. That's uncomfortably high.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SBajwa » 03 Apr 2020 00:30

https://www.utimes.pitt.edu/news/pitt-r ... s-announce

By SUSAN JONES
Pitt School of Medicine researchers announced at a news conference today a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, that would work the same way as current flu shots to build up antibodies to the disease.
When tested in mice, the vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities thought to be sufficient for neutralizing the virus.
“We used a genetically engineered cell to make a piece of the spike protein on the outside of SARS coronavirus,” said co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine. “This is the part of the virus that the immune system sees, and when that happened it triggered antibody production, which should protect against viral infection and COVID-19 disease.”
The antigen is delivered through a dissolvable microneedle array directly into those areas of the skin that are made to make an immune response, said co-senior author Louis Falo, professor and chair of dermatology at Pitt’s School of Medicine and UPMC. “And so it results in a very potent vaccine. When you're thinking about how these micronano arrays are actually used in practice, think about them as almost like a Bandaid. The microneedle array is simply applied to the skin topically, pressed into place very shortly. And then taken off and thrown away. And then the antigen is already delivered.
“This vaccine is designed to be safe, in part because it delivers very low doses of antigens, so much lower doses than the traditional flu vaccine,” Falo said. “Secondly, it delivers that antigen to a very confined space within the skin, so that it's very unlikely that we would see any type of systemic responses that have been seen with some patients in the flu vaccine.”
The authors are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in anticipation of starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.
“This process normally takes months to years, but these pandemic conditions are not normal,” Falo said. “The NIH, the FDA and other regulatory agencies have made terrific progress in accelerating this process. Once we get approval from the FDA, we will be ready to start human safety trials.”
The researchers were quizzed several times about a timeline for delivering the vaccine to the public but said that can’t be determined yet because of the regulatory requirements and testing needed.
“We're hoping with the expedited review and all the efforts that the regulatory agencies have made that we can reduce that regulatory process from months to weeks,” Falo said.
Once human testing is approved, “we will be starting with healthy volunteers in the Pittsburgh area,” he said. “Those will be the first cohorts of patients that enter the trial. And we will be basically looking at multiple doses during the course of the trial to find the most effective dose.”
The scientists started working on the vaccine on Jan. 21 and were able to act quickly because they had already laid the groundwork during earlier coronavirus epidemics — SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2014.
“These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus,” Gambotto said.
The Pitt scientist’s work appeared today in EBioMedicine, which is published by The Lancet. It is the first study to be published about a possible COVID-19 vaccine after critique from fellow scientists at outside institutions.
Compared to the experimental mRNA vaccine candidate that just entered clinical trials, the vaccine described in this paper — which the authors are calling PittCoVacc, short for Pittsburgh Coronavirus Vaccine — follows a more established approach, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity. It’s the same way the current flu shots work.
When tested in mice, PittCoVacc generated a surge of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 within two weeks of the microneedle prick.
“This vaccine is the result of a collaboration involving scientists from very diverse fields — vaccinologists, skin biologists, bioengineers and biologists — all coming together to work towards a common goal. That's the type of collaborative environment we have here at Pitt and at UPMC,” Falo said at the news conference.
The potential vaccine and delivery system are highly scalable, according to the researchers. Once manufactured, the vaccine can sit at room temperature until it’s needed, eliminating the need for refrigeration during transport or storage.
“For most vaccines, you don’t need to address scalability to begin with,” Gambotto said. “But when you try to develop a vaccine quickly against a pandemic that’s the first requirement.”
Additional authors on the study are Eun Kim, Geza Erdos, Shaohua Huang, Thomas Kenniston, Stephen Balmert, Cara Donahue Carey, Michael Epperly, William Klimstra, and Emrullah Korkmaz, all of Pitt; and Bart Haagmans, of Erasmus Medical Center.
Funding for this study was provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and the National Cancer Institute.
Susan Jones is editor of the University Times. Reach her at suejones@pitt.edu or 412-648-4294.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 03 Apr 2020 00:41

Problem with vaccines is that in addition to testing their efficacy it is equally important to test for their safety. People given the vaccine need to be observed over a period of time to establish that the vaccine is safe to use on humans and note any side-effects or contraindications etc. That is why it takes so long to bring vaccines to the market after their development. I am not sure how you can avoid this step even in the pandemic. If the vaccine turns out to have dangerous side effects which were not noticed because the testing duration was curtailed, you can cause a bigger disaster than the pandemic if a large percentage of the human population was vaccinated hurriedly.

Public health professionals like Dr. Anthony Fauci etc. have been warning people not to expect a widely available vaccine for at least a year if not more.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 03 Apr 2020 01:00

I saw a reference to this - one of the reasons the west is very reticent about widespread use of the regimens suggested elsewhere, or trying anything experimental, is the Thalidomide tragedy, where it was once considered an essential OTC medication, but later was found to be the cause of widespread birth defects in children.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 03 Apr 2020 01:03

Worldwide numbers have crossed a million today.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 03 Apr 2020 01:07

sudarshan wrote:Look at S. Korea for instance, where they got this thing mostly under control weeks ago. Still, 40% of the cases are declared "active" there, only 60% are declared "recovered." Other countries show miniscule fractions of recovered vs. active. Seems to take weeks and weeks for somebody to be declared "recovered," they just stay on the active pile for ages. I think that's what is showing in that closed case outcome graph.


These statistics are making the Chinese claims of containing the virus more and more unbelievable. If there is going to be a large population of unsymptomatic carriers, or patients who have not been declared as recovered in all these other geographies, the same should be true in China as well. But their official stats are claiming that most of the affected have recovered (or dead), very few remaining active cases.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby V_Raman » 03 Apr 2020 01:17

hanumadu wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Was there any request to the Tablighi Jamaat folks in Delhi to cancel the event originally?


Are they idiots that they don't understand the situation or law that prohibits congregation?


There were many gatherings in India before the JanataCurfew. We cannot fault the Jamaat gathering unless authorities asked them to not go ahead and they went ahead with it anyways.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby brar_w » 03 Apr 2020 01:19

nachiket wrote:Problem with vaccines is that in addition to testing their efficacy it is equally important to test for their safety. People given the vaccine need to be observed over a period of time to establish that the vaccine is safe to use on humans and note any side-effects or contraindications etc. That is why it takes so long to bring vaccines to the market after their development. I am not sure how you can avoid this step even in the pandemic. If the vaccine turns out to have dangerous side effects which were not noticed because the testing duration was curtailed, you can cause a bigger disaster than the pandemic if a large percentage of the human population was vaccinated hurriedly.

Public health professionals like Dr. Anthony Fauci etc. have been warning people not to expect a widely available vaccine for at least a year if not more.


Yes with vaccines you have to be careful because it will be administered to healthy people and you don't want to do more damage than what you are trying to prevent. You really don't want to cut corners with something like that. It isn't a last resort drug that you only administer to the sick and can fast track based on compassionate grounds.

What you can do to accelerate things is subsidize a few of the promising vaccines early so that concurrent production and trials can be conducted so that when they are approved you have a very large stockpile and don't need to wait for it to be produced.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raveen » 03 Apr 2020 01:20

V_Raman wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Are they idiots that they don't understand the situation or law that prohibits congregation?


There were many gatherings in India before the JanataCurfew. We cannot fault the Jamaat gathering unless authorities asked them to not go ahead and they went ahead with it anyways.


There was more than one request - and yes, we can fault anyone who puts public welfare at risk through dumbA$$ decisions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 03 Apr 2020 01:23

Even if we can not fault the tablighi jamaat for the congregation their post congregation behavior is inexcusable. They refuse to be tested nor be quarantined.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 03 Apr 2020 01:30

I am genuinely curious to know if modern medical science has not progressed enough to able to rapidly create a safe vaccine against a form of flu virus?

As far I understand, Corona is not a complex virus like HIV. It seems to have a simple mechanism of using protein based cell locking mechanism and then infect the cell.

We have the gene sequence of the virus. Probably know the type of protein present on the virus. Don't we have other virus with similar protein structure?

Given that most of the virus would have similar mechanism of infecting a cell, I am a bit surprised that we humans don't maintain some sort of anti-dote on how to deal with a specific protein key on a virus?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby brar_w » 03 Apr 2020 01:31

The IHME model, which Trump and his task force said their own model was closest to, has revised the expected US casualties (till Aug 2020) up from 80K to 90+K. The model assumes a 100% stay at home compliance. There are still states in the US which have not instituted stay at home orders.

Image

nam wrote:I am genuinely curious to know if modern medical science has not progressed enough to able to rapidly create a safe vaccine against a form of flu virus?


Once the genetic sequence of the virus was shared by China, the first vaccine was developed in under a month. Within two months from having access to the sequence Phase I trials had begun. I think the questions need to be asked from China as to why they waited till Mid January before releasing the genetic sequence. Surely they could have done this a lot earlier if they begun seeing these cases as far back as Sept/Oct. Many other potential candidates are following close behind. The bottleneck isn't in developing one. It is running trials to determine whether it works and is safe to use on the population at large.

Scientists at NIAID’s Vaccine Research Center (VRC) and Moderna were able to quickly develop mRNA-1273 because of prior studies of related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronaviruses are spherical and have spikes protruding from their surface, giving the particles a crown-like appearance. The spike binds to human cells, allowing the virus to gain entry. VRC and Moderna scientists already were working on an investigational MERS vaccine targeting the spike, which provided a head start for developing a vaccine candidate to protect against COVID-19. Once the genetic information of SARS-CoV-2 became available, the scientists quickly selected a sequence to express the stabilized spike protein of the virus in the existing mRNA platform.

The Phase 1 trial is led by Lisa A. Jackson, M.D., senior investigator at KPWHRI. Study participants will receive two doses of the vaccine via intramuscular injection in the upper arm approximately 28 days apart. Each participant will be assigned to receive a 25 microgram (mcg), 100 mcg or 250 mcg dose at both vaccinations, with 15 people in each dose cohort. The first four participants will receive one injection with the low dose, and the next four participants will receive the 100 mcg dose. Investigators will review safety data before vaccinating the remaining participants in the 25 and 100 mcg dose groups and before participants receive their second vaccinations. Another safety review will be done before participants are enrolled in the 250 mcg cohort.

Participants will be asked to return to the clinic for follow-up visits between vaccinations and for additional visits across the span of a year after the second shot. Clinicians will monitor participants for common vaccination symptoms, such as soreness at the injection site or fever as well as any other medical issues. A protocol team will meet regularly to review safety data, and a safety monitoring committee will also periodically review trial data and advise NIAID. Participants also will be asked to provide blood samples at specified time points, which investigators will test in the laboratory to detect and measure the immune response to the experimental vaccine.


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... -19-begins
Last edited by brar_w on 03 Apr 2020 02:23, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 03 Apr 2020 01:35

What do you know? Tablighi Jamaat are not the only idiots in the world. We have them in US of A too. They are unfortunately too close to me for comfort.

71 infected with coronavirus at Sacramento church. Congregation tells county ‘leave us alone’

Sacbee

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Trikaal » 03 Apr 2020 01:39

DrRatnadip wrote:I would like to share my personal understanding about COVID 19 here.. This is just summary of what most of us already know..
we can group infected individuals in three groups..
Group(A )Infected but asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms which people tend to ignore.. These individuals comprise largest percentage in COVID population.. Doctors label them as ILI (influenza like illness) ..
Group B Infected Patients who show moderate symptoms like slight tightness in chest/ mild breathlessness/ fever..
we can again subdivide group B in two subgroups..
B1 ) These patients respond quickly to suportive symptomatic treatment and more likely to come down to Group A
B2) These patients require more extensive treatment but can be managed without ICU care.. But chances of detoriation are still there..
Group C) These are patients requiring ICU care and can further be categorised in two groups
C1) Pt who respond to treatment and show improvement if current treatment protocols are followed..
C2) These group of patients show rapid detoriation and do not seem to respond to any available therapy.. This is most fulminant form of disease leading to almost certain death.. significant proportion of C2 also have myocardial involvement and generalized bone marrow depression..

Absolute number of patients falling in each one of above category is different in different countries.. Obvious factors involved in this divide are demographic characteristics of population, prevalence of various co morbidities like diabetes/COPD/cardiac ailments, smoking habits and even average BMI of population..

Fortunately in India number of individuals going in Group C2 seems significantly low.. Having young population and early lockdown is definitely advantageous in this regard..
I belive instead of futile testing in all sypmtomatic individuals we should focus our limited resources on early detection and treatement of patients who are more likely to land up in Group C2..
Most of patients in group A and B1 are likely recover and contribute to herd immunity.. We need to develop simple scoring system to identify individuals who are more likely to fall in group A or B1.. So that we can allow gradual withdrawal of lockdown for them.. Remaining can continue social distancing for extended time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed.. I hope soon we can comeup with effective vaccine to protect individuals with high risk too..
Extended lockdown for all is counterproductive.. Extensive testing is costly and wastage of resources..


While I do agree that extensive testing is costly, only through cluster testing can we identify red zones. We should be testing more to identify locality level red zones and then targeted quarantining those areas, a strategy similar to what SK adopted. Problems like false negatives still exist and can probably be reduced only through multiple testing.

Some countries are reducing cost of testing by conducting combined testing and then finding the positive cases through binary search algorithm.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 03 Apr 2020 01:40


Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'

By Talia Kaplan | Fox News
Published 4 hours ago

Dr. Stephen Smith, founder of The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health, said on “The Ingraham Angle” on Wednesday night that he is optimistic about the use of antimalarial medications and antibiotics to treat COVID-19 patients, calling it “a game-changer.”“I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I’m very serious,” Smith, an infectious disease specialist, told host Laura Ingraham.

Currently there is no known cure for the coronavirus pandemic ravaging the globe.Smith, who is treating 72 COVID-19 patients, said that he has been treating "everybody with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin [an antibiotic]. We’ve been doing so for a while.”

He pointed out that not a single COVID-19 patient of his that has been on the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin regimen for five days or more has had to be intubated.

“The chance of that occurring by chance, according to my sons Leon and Hunter who did some stats for me, are .000-something,” he said, adding that “it’s ridiculously low."


Smith explained that “intubation means actually putting a tube down into your trachea and then you’re placed on the ventilator for respiratory support.” The Food and Drug Administration recently announced an emergency-use authorization for several drugs, including hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, despite a lack of clear evidence of their effectiveness.A study published earlier this month by French researchers suggested that COVID-19 patients could be treated with antimalarial medication and antibiotics in the battle against the novel coronavirus.

Smith noted on Wednesday that he thinks his data supports the French study.

“Now you actually have an intra-cohort comparison saying that this regimen works,” he told Ingraham.Speaking on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Dr. Mehmet Oz brought up an “important randomized study still unpublished from Wuhan, China.”

He said that his team spoke to the medical leadership in China and vetted the study.

“We think it's real,” Dr. Oz said on Thursday.

He then went on to explain what the study, which looked at 62 patients, showed. He noted that half of the patients got the traditional therapy being offered in China and the other half got the traditional therapy plus hydroxychloroquine.

“In terms of symptoms, their temperatures, their fevers broke instead of three days, which is the norm over there on this treatment, they got two days,” Dr. Oz said.

He added that “in terms of coughing, the other big symptom you have, again it takes a little over three days oftentimes for that to go away and that was dropped at two days.”

Dr. Oz then pointed out the part that “really caught my attention.”

“They did CT scans of the chest in all the patients. All the patients had pneumonia when they started. Over the course of the five-day treatment with the hydroxychloroquine and 55 percent of the control population where they just got the normal therapy there was resolve and resolution of the pneumonia in 81 percent of the patients on the hydroxychloroquine, there was improvement in the lung's images,” he pointed out.

Dr. Oz noted that these results are “statistically significant.”

He went on to say that even though the study only monitored a small group of people, “they still got the measures that we like to see.”

Dr. Oz acknowledged that a bigger clinical trial is still needed, adding that the Chinese study “is an early effort to try to show a lot of people whether this is the right way or the wrong way to go.”

“I should point out in the 31 patients that were the control group, four patients had bad outcomes, they got significantly worse. None of the patients in the hydroxychloroquine group got significantly worse,” he said.

“So the Chinese are using this as part of their routine treatment. They have a national protocol for measuring COVID-19. I think we ought to consider something like that in this country, but at least physicians and patients should be able to discuss this a bit more comfortably until we have the bigger randomized data from studies done in this country.”A new study in the United States, which will be conducted by the University of Washington in conjunction with New York University, looks to enroll 2,000 people who are "close contacts of persons with confirmed or pending COVID-19 diagnoses," according to a statement announcing the study.New York State recently said it would start coronavirus drug trials in an attempt to control the pandemic's impact on the state, according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who announced the state had acquired 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine, 10,000 doses of the antibiotic Zithromax and 750,000 doses of chloroquine, another antimalarial drug.Recently President Trump has spoken out about the potential promise of hydroxychloroquine to help treat COVID-19 patients.A New York Times article published on Wednesday also referenced the Chinese study Dr. Oz had referred to on “Fox and Friends.”The article, which cited doctors in China, titled “Malaria Drug Helps Virus Patients Improve, in Small Study,” highlighted the fact that hydroxychloroquine “helped to speed the recovery of a small number of patients who were mildly ill from the coronavirus.”

“Cough, fever and pneumonia went away faster, and the disease seemed less likely to turn severe in people who received hydroxychloroquine than in a comparison group not given the drug,” the article said. “The authors of the report said that the medication was promising, but that more research was needed to clarify how it might work in treating coronavirus disease and to determine the best way to use it.”

Speaking on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday Dr. Oz also noted another observation the Chinese made in their study, saying they noticed that people who were already taking hydroxychloroquine, like the people who suffer from the autoimmune disease lupus and are prescribed the drug for that condition, didn’t contract COVID-19.

“So we ought to think about looking at it for doctors and nurses and loved ones of people who get ill,” Dr. Oz said on Thursday.
Last edited by anmol on 03 Apr 2020 01:49, edited 1 time in total.

Raveen
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raveen » 03 Apr 2020 01:55

saip wrote:Even if we can not fault the tablighi jamaat for the congregation their post congregation behavior is inexcusable. They refuse to be tested nor be quarantined.

and instead have dispersed all over the country and are in hiding refusing to come out...including the numerous foreigners that are being hidden.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 03 Apr 2020 02:40

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 03 Apr 2020 03:42, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Not the place to discuss conspiracy theories.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 03 Apr 2020 02:42

SRoy wrote:^^

They will do as they please. Tum kya ukhad loge?


We are just monitoring the jamaati momeen infestation and how it is spreading and where they can be red zoned and how it can be red zoned. It is nothing but more information gathering and some dissemination.

BTW, Vir Sanghvi who happens to be an established mediapimp has called for filing 'accessory to murder' charges on the momeen jamaatis.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 03 Apr 2020 03:03

nam wrote:I got asked a very innocent question about this virus. The Chinese (or for that matter some of the ASEAN countries) have a practice of wet market and have been eating bats for a long time.

If that is the case why did the virus appear now? It is obviously not a new virus and would have infected the people in those region way back. Why did it start infecting people now?

Any theories?


For the same reason HIV virus which existed in Chimps did not infect humans before 20th century.
It's not a "new" virus, it just mutated as it got passed from host to host, in this case multiple animal species. Also, everyone who gets the virus does fall ill and die. In fact it's the asymptomatic people who act the super spreader which makes this virus so dangerous. It's almost like it was designed to spread by not infecting some while not making them sick while not infecting others.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KLNMurthy » 03 Apr 2020 03:13

V_Raman wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Are they idiots that they don't understand the situation or law that prohibits congregation?


There were many gatherings in India before the JanataCurfew. We cannot fault the Jamaat gathering unless authorities asked them to not go ahead and they went ahead with it anyways.

Please read the rediff report by Sheela Bhatt in a different thread, and the reports on the attitude and conduct of the TJs.

There was no chance that they would have obeyed the authorities under any circumstances.

These people are a serious problem in this battle.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 03 Apr 2020 03:20

nam wrote:I got asked a very innocent question about this virus. The Chinese (or for that matter some of the ASEAN countries) have a practice of wet market and have been eating bats for a long time.

If that is the case why did the virus appear now? It is obviously not a new virus and would have infected the people in those region way back. Why did it start infecting people now?

Any theories?


CoronaVirus is not now or new. Virus has been going around since last 3 decades. It is just that it has morphed into a virulent form! Current virus is similar to the SARS virus that came out in 2003. How similar? 89% similar.

And second, this one did not come from bats., It was recirculating in Pigs and jumped from Pigs to Humans. I have a theory, it jumped from humans to pigs and back.

Given the above I will leave some URLs as hints for now:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/04/new-sars-virus-bats-implicated-china-pig-die
https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/zoonotic-infections/news/online/%7Bb7b1d5e5-65df-48e8-8e95-f45a16225e26%7D/pig-coronavirus-potentially-harmful-to-humans
https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/science-ticker/new-coronavirus-killing-pigs-china
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/24/7/17-2077_article

In a nutshell, this was coming at us since the last 3-4 decades. Starting from mad cow. All the factory farming and the need for "protein" has led us to this.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kaivalya » 03 Apr 2020 05:31

Please see textbook excerpt below. Belatedly Shenzen just banned killing of cats and dogs...but bats , raccoons etc are still on.

This disaster has been in the works for a while now

https://i.redd.it/whe13ywz6jn41.jpg

A day ago :

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-wildlife-idUSKBN21K0EW

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 03 Apr 2020 05:41

I am getting very worried, the number increases in India are following the US trend thanks to the Tableeghis, the next few days will tell us, btw I get different dates for this shitty conference from different sources, one of them even says it went on until Mar30th ? whats the truth ? Asking because, it gives us an idea on how long to prolong this lockdown

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kaivalya » 03 Apr 2020 06:13

suryag wrote:I am getting very worried, the number increases in India are following the US trend thanks to the Tableeghis, the next few days will tell us, btw I get different dates for this shitty conference from different sources, one of them even says it went on until Mar30th ? whats the truth ? Asking because, it gives us an idea on how long to prolong this lockdown



Timeline from India today

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/timeline-of-nizamuddin-markaz-event-of-tablighi-jamaat-in-delhi-1661726-2020-03-31

Here are some things to note

1. US still does not have a complete lockdown. Many states made their own decision after 100k confirmed cases. Even now Sweden ( no lockdown) vs Norway/Denmark (full lockdown) is debated. If you compare people dead it is clear in my opinion. In any case, it does not offer any insight when we consider indian urban/rural densities

2. A large portion of the tableeghi jamat community has tied their politics to coronavirus and have turned criminal by hiding, spitting and beating health care workers and doctors. There are churches in the US who have operated and have been arrested. But criminal TJ behaviour is no comparison. Close to 600 of the total confirmed cases have been directly linked.

3. The lockdown trend is lower without TJ nonsense. Hopefully it will prove out in the next few days

4. Indian leadership has done very sensible things in my opinion including setting expectations that the lockdown will be worsened in hotspots and will be relieved in the absence of cases in a staggered way
Last edited by Kaivalya on 03 Apr 2020 06:18, edited 2 times in total.

Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 03 Apr 2020 06:15

anmol wrote:
Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'

A study published earlier this month by French researchers suggested that COVID-19 patients could be treated with antimalarial medication and antibiotics in the battle against the novel coronavirus.

Smith noted on Wednesday that he thinks his data supports the French study.

“Now you actually have an intra-cohort comparison saying that this regimen works,” he told Ingraham.Speaking on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Dr. Mehmet Oz brought up an “important randomized study still unpublished from Wuhan, China.”

He said that his team spoke to the medical leadership in China and vetted the study.


What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby brar_w » 03 Apr 2020 06:31

Cain Marko wrote:What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...


No such thing at all. All he is saying that we will treat this as promising anecdotal evidence and other data and regulatory and advisory institutions will act upon that and direct usage accordingly (it has even been fast tracked and approved in cases) but definitive efficacy can only be determined via a RCT. And this, along with numerous other therapies need to be a part of RCT's so that we know what works, what doesn't and what works best (if multiple things show promise) because he, like many ID experts, thinks that until a vaccine is developed this thing will come back cyclically. It is important that they use that time wisely and learn as much as possible. That is all that he is saying.

It is not his job or role to tell what to or what not to use. He does not head the FDA. The FDA has already issued an EUA on these drugs and they are available.

Fauci heads the NIAID, an organization, which researches treatments and prevention of infectious diseases. A part of his job is to advise what the best course of how to manage this virus and that would be to advocate RCT's for the various promising therapies out there and use that information to save lives as thing things gets bigger and comes back int he Fall/Winter time-frame. The organization he heads is also funding the clinical trials of the vaccine for Covid-19. When there are multiple paths to take towards investing in therapies that show promise, you need to be able to learn very quickly what works and what doesn't and the various nuances in between. It is his job to make the best use of the little time everyone has and help figure these things out. The NIH is already doing RCT's on COVID-19. Expect more to be added and accelerated given the current situation. There are other RCT's that are happening right now elsewhere in the world on these very drugs. As everyone waits for those to show results, the regulators have allowed the medications to be used for patients in accordance with the guidelines that they deserve based on evidence available so far.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/n ... -19-begins
Last edited by brar_w on 03 Apr 2020 08:14, edited 1 time in total.


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