Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Apr 2020 07:02

What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...



The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health; please look it up. It is a three physician setup with this fellow and two Phillipino MDs, one of whom is a psychiatrist.

So he has found a game changer, which seems to have been missed by the workers at CUNY, Columbia etc. You can draw your own conclusions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Apr 2020 07:08


vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 03 Apr 2020 07:53

Spoke to a friend in AZ who is recovering pretty bad case of COVID-19. He suffered for 10 days. He still can't smell but most of his fever/headaches gone.

He took Xofluza, HydroChloroquine, Azithromycin. Feels better.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aarvee » 03 Apr 2020 08:02

To the clinicians/biologists, Any thoughts on this?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/neimann- ... n-vedururu

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 03 Apr 2020 08:11



Aso Taro blasted the World Health Organization for bowing to China and excluding Taiwan. Speaking to Japanese lawmakers, the deputy prime minister said the WHO should change its name to the "CHO," or China Health Organization. He said being excluded from the global health body, Taiwan was driven to become a world leader in combating the coronavirus.The coronavirus pandemic has led to the postponement of the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Speaking in Japan’s parliament, the country’s deputy prime minister leveled fresh criticism against China.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 03 Apr 2020 08:59

Image
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/04/02/world-bank-group-launches-first-operations-for-covid-19-coronavirus-emergency-health-support-strengthening-developing-country-responses
The first group of projects, amounting to $1.9 billion, will assist 25 countries, and new operations are moving forward in over 40 countries using the fast-track process. In addition, the World Bank is working worldwide to redeploy resources in existing World Bank financed projects worth up to $1.7 billion, including through restructuring, use of emergency components of existing projects (CERCs) and triggering of CAT DDOs and spanning every region.

The World Bank Group is prepared to deploy up to $160 billion over the next 15 months to support COVID-19 measures that will help countries respond to immediate health consequences of the pandemic and bolster economic recovery. The broader economic program will aim to shorten the time to recovery, create conditions for growth, support small and medium enterprises, and help protect the poor and vulnerable.

In India, $1 billion emergency financing will support better screening, contact tracing, and laboratory diagnostics; procure personal protective equipment; and set up new isolation wards.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/04/02/world-bank-fast-tracks-1-billion-covid-19-support-for-india
The project will also enhance the resilience of India’s health system to provide core public health prevention and patient care to better manage COVID-19 and future disease outbreaks. It will help strengthen India’s Integrated Disease Surveillance Program, revamp infectious disease hospitals, district, civil, general and medical college hospitals, and build a network of high containment Biosafety Level 3 laboratories.
Last edited by ricky_v on 03 Apr 2020 09:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 03 Apr 2020 09:00

sanjaykumar wrote:What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...



The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health; please look it up. It is a three physician setup with this fellow and two Phillipino MDs, one of whom is a psychiatrist.

So he has found a game changer, which seems to have been missed by the workers at CUNY, Columbia etc. You can draw your own conclusions.



Please post a link and synopsis for us.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aarvee » 03 Apr 2020 09:10


Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 03 Apr 2020 09:29

sanjaykumar wrote:What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...



The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health; please look it up. It is a three physician setup with this fellow and two Phillipino MDs, one of whom is a psychiatrist.

So he has found a game changer, which seems to have been missed by the workers at CUNY, Columbia etc. You can draw your own conclusions.

There are now 3 studies with decent methodology although. Smith's is not the only one. Have CUNY etal conducted studies that show no significant associations?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 03 Apr 2020 09:36

brar_w wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:What i am simply not getting is why Fauci does not consider these to be relevant or encouraging. Sure they are not randomized (at least the French one was not) but nevertheless...


No such thing at all. All he is saying that we will treat this as promising anecdotal evidence and other data and regulatory and advisory institutions will act upon that and direct usage accordingly (it has even been fast tracked and approved in cases) but definitive efficacy can only be determined via a RCT. And this, along with numerous other therapies need to be a part of RCT's so that we know what works, what doesn't and what works best (if multiple things show promise) because he, like many ID experts, thinks that until a vaccine is developed this thing will come back cyclically. It is important that they use that time wisely and learn as much as possible. That is all that he is saying.


Let's hope so. I believe his statements were in reference to the initial French study. But now there are others. And the Chinese one in particular seems quite rigorous.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby brar_w » 03 Apr 2020 09:58

Cain Marko wrote:But now there are others. And the Chinese one in particular seems quite rigorous.


It doesn't matter. The FDA has already granted permission to use these drugs at the appropriate levels that they deserve based on what is known so far. They are being used on the front lines as we speak. Once RCTs are done (there are ones that are currently ongoing) more will be known and based on that evidence further guidelines will be issued. This is exactly what he was saying. Treat it with the level of importance that it deserves based on knowledge and evidence that we have. Nothing more and nothing less. Then follow an evidence based course not only for this therapy but also several others that might be promising. His organization, and others around the world are doing just that. The medical community, the FDA, NIH and other similarly tasked organizations around the world are acting on all of these things as is required.

The reason this even became an issue is because politicians who know nothing about this decided to make this a talking point when they should let the experts direct these things. As it turns out the FDA, the NIH and other international bodies were already acting to grant permissions commensurate with what we know so far, and to develop more knowledge to further advise the doctors on the front lines. This virus isn't going away anytime soon. As it slows its carnage in Europe things in the US are likely to get really bad and once the US stabilizes other hot spots may well emerge. And all this could repeat again next season. Researchers and ID specialists have a very small window of maybe just a few months to gather as much knowledge on it as they can (what therapies work) so that when it comes back..we don't see this level of destruction.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Apr 2020 10:06

https://www.smithcenternj.org/

The French study is of very poor quality. They used small numbers, they used a surrogate marker ie RNA load not a clinical marker. There was poor reporting of clinical status of patients including even their need for supplemental O2. One patient ended up in ICU, that patient was on hydroxychloroquine.

I have not come across the Chinese study. Perhaps they would not have had ~40,000 deaths if indeed the two drug combination was effective.

One can be sure the Italians and Spaniards have tried it as a matter of physician judgement. There is nothing but silence from them and they have been losing about 1000 people a day.

A physician cannot take away hope but equally one should not be offering false hoppe.


It is time to perform massive drug screening of already approved medications, imipramine, chloroquine congeners, antibiotics, angiotensin receptor blockers for in vitro tests to assay for viral inhibition. This should be followed by combination studies to look for any additive or synergistic effects. These would be repurposed drugs and can move into clinical practice very quickly.


There are several vaccine trials gearing up.

Keep the vulnerable, the elderly, diabetic, obese sequestered. Get the antibody test and 'passport' done. Demonstrate recovered patients are immune. Get them into the workforce. Develop the passive immunisation approach as viable. Do plasmapheresis if there are unacceptable immune reactions (serum sickness), work on anti anti idiotypic antibodies (humanised monoclonal). Develop competitive inhibitors to the ACE Type 2 binding interaction. This will require hydrolytic enzyme(peptidase) inhibition and peptide modification or inhibitors to any specific peptidase that is found to degrade the competitive oligo peptide. May need synthetic molecules to mimic the three dimensional structure of the binding site if a simple oligopeptide is inadequate. Do a large study on the drugs patients were on when they developed the infection. Determine if statins, ARBs etc have any survival advantage.

There are no shortcuts, biologists are at work.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pgbhat » 03 Apr 2020 10:23


Arun.prabhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 03 Apr 2020 10:38

Analysis of ncovid-19 mortality and other things...
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 03 Apr 2020 10:41

from Diamond Princess: 3600 passengers and crew, 710 infected, 410 asymptomatic.

And from here:
https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medici ... 251474302/

English translation:

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... refresh_ce

The Italian study claims between 50-75% of infected are asymptomatic.


niran wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:The focus on the tests is pretty hard to understand when up to 60% of the infected show no symptoms and do not qualify for the tests.

where does this 60% asymptomatic comes from?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pgbhat » 03 Apr 2020 10:59

Arun.prabhu wrote:Analysis of ncovid-19 mortality and other things...
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

March 22, 2020 (I)
Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.

Shanghai Statistics?
Why would you word it like this? Are they saying they would have died anyways with/without Coronavirus at the same time?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 03 Apr 2020 11:09

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday appealed to everyone to voluntarily adopt a blackout at 9 pm on Sunday and light a lamp,


I think he is gauging for compliance fatigue. The leftrolls are out in full force. Some even predict that like Janata Curfew was a precursor to a full lockdown, this is a precursor to a total shutdown including power, supplies etc.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 03 Apr 2020 11:20


Rahul M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 03 Apr 2020 11:27

suryag wrote:I am getting very worried, the number increases in India are following the US trend thanks to the Tableeghis, the next few days will tell us, btw I get different dates for this shitty conference from different sources, one of them even says it went on until Mar30th ? whats the truth ? Asking because, it gives us an idea on how long to prolong this lockdown

Suryag, I pass through nijamuddin area in my daily office commute. Believe me, south east asian and central Asian looking muslims are there all year round. This is over and above the busloads of sub continental looking muslims who are also there on a perennial basis. The numbers wax and wane but there's always a steady stream. Now some may be pilgrims to the dargah but I don't see that itself is particularly different as a covid incubator. So don't believe media et al when they say this is a one off thing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sum » 03 Apr 2020 11:30

sajo wrote:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday appealed to everyone to voluntarily adopt a blackout at 9 pm on Sunday and light a lamp,


I think he is gauging for compliance fatigue. The leftrolls are out in full force. Some even predict that like Janata Curfew was a precursor to a full lockdown, this is a precursor to a total shutdown including power, supplies etc.

There is always some method to the madness and I'm curious what it is.

In the meanwhile, it has really, really ignited the diya of all my "liberal" friends who are currently going ape-$hi* all over the place after the video

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 03 Apr 2020 11:34

sajo wrote:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday appealed to everyone to voluntarily adopt a blackout at 9 pm on Sunday and light a lamp,


I think he is gauging for compliance fatigue. The leftrolls are out in full force. Some even predict that like Janata Curfew was a precursor to a full lockdown, this is a precursor to a total shutdown including power, supplies etc.

compliance can be checked by calculating the peek demand at 9 pm

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 03 Apr 2020 11:46

First i thought it was substantial for an hour or so, it is for 5 minutes, what is that going to do? if the lt consumers stop everything at the same time, keeping in mind that our country is conncted by a single grid at 50 hz, and then back up in short phases we will enjoy voltage dips and grid blackouts; surely such exercise has more pupose and reasoning behind it and is not merely a pointless gimmick for solidarity and oneness purposes.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nandakumar » 03 Apr 2020 12:02

Rahul M wrote:
suryag wrote:I am getting very worried, the number increases in India are following the US trend thanks to the Tableeghis, the next few days will tell us, btw I get different dates for this shitty conference from different sources, one of them even says it went on until Mar30th ? whats the truth ? Asking because, it gives us an idea on how long to prolong this lockdown

Suryag, I pass through nijamuddin area in my daily office commute. Believe me, south east asian and central Asian looking muslims are there all year round. This is over and above the busloads of sub continental looking muslims who are also there on a perennial basis. The numbers wax and wane but there's always a steady stream. Now some may be pilgrims to the dargah but I don't see that itself is particularly different as a covid incubator. So don't believe media et al when they say this is a one off thing.

This is what I have learnt from people in the know. Tableeghi Jamaat has preachers all over the world. They have to periodically undergo refresher course/training as part of their responsibilities. The Nizamuddin Centre is one such. So people come over all through the year. Another thing that I have learnt is that during this refresher courses they form small communities amongst themselves. They live, eat and sleep together as a group. So much so, they eat from the same plate. We know, saliva based contamination is the most common. Not surprising that the infection rate is so high.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 03 Apr 2020 12:03

Unlike the Janata Curfew day where the main message was to remain home and the appreciation window was a side note, this new announcement was purely for "Andheri Raat mein Diya Tere haath mein" as the left liberals are terming it.
He could have simply tweeted about it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 03 Apr 2020 12:05

The weekly death statistics haven't exceeded the historical averages and is not deviating significantly from the weekly death averages for other years.

Further from the Swiss doctor's article:
"The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age."

And yes, the death statistics in Italy are intentionally skewed, btw. If you died of an accident while carrying the disease, they seem inclined to record cause of death as ncovid-19.

pgbhat wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:Analysis of ncovid-19 mortality and other things...
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

March 22, 2020 (I)
Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.

Shanghai Statistics?
Why would you word it like this? Are they saying they would have died anyways with/without Coronavirus at the same time?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jpremnath » 03 Apr 2020 13:04

Amidst all this, have you noticed how the Pakis somehow managed to reduce the growth in numbers? From double our numbers of infected a week back, they are at par now...
Even if we discount the nizamudheen fiasco, our rising numbers is a bit concerning. It is gonna take one more week for the lockdown influence to kick in i guess.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 03 Apr 2020 13:05

Arun.prabhu wrote:The weekly death statistics haven't exceeded the historical averages and is not deviating significantly from the weekly death averages for other years.

Further from the Swiss doctor's article:
"The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age."

And yes, the death statistics in Italy are intentionally skewed, btw. If you died of an accident while carrying the disease, they seem inclined to record cause of death as ncovid-19.

pgbhat wrote:
Shanghai Statistics?
Why would you word it like this? Are they saying they would have died anyways with/without Coronavirus at the same time?


Article states that Current all-cause mortality in Europe and in Italy is still normal or even below-average..This is surprising..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 03 Apr 2020 13:09

sajo wrote:Unlike the Janata Curfew day where the main message was to remain home and the appreciation window was a side note, this new announcement was purely for "Andheri Raat mein Diya Tere haath mein" as the left liberals are terming it.
He could have simply tweeted about it.

this is to test the population for extending the lockdown with even more stringent measures. it was done during janata curfew. looking at its success lockdown was initiated. need to see how long people will adhere or get cracked under lockdown pressure.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 03 Apr 2020 13:13

More updated ..correct me if there is discrepancy
Image
Last edited by shaun on 03 Apr 2020 16:28, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby amar_p » 03 Apr 2020 13:52

Google has published google maps based tracking data of mobile phone users (using Android presumably) for a lot of countries which you can get from:
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The mobility trends report for India (pdf) compared to baseline starting beginning of February:
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_IN_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Quick comparison between India and France :
Retail & recreation Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters.

INDIA -77% FRANCE -88%

Grocery & pharmacy Mobility trends for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies.

INDIA -65% FRANCE -72%

Parks Mobility trends for places like national parks, public beaches, marinas, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens

INDIA -57% FRANCE -82%

So going by this admittedly partial view which is nevertheless quite insightful, the lockdown is working, but compliance is not strong enough in India. To get over the hill and flatten the curve, these numbers should be >80%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 03 Apr 2020 15:21

More I think about exiting lockdown more I realize how tough it is going to be.. If we see sudden increase in cases after curfew is lifted , people will start questioning very purpose of this 21 days lockdown.. If govt increases lockdown further we will see less and less compliance from people and more clashesh with police..
Obvious aim of govt will be to allow enough movement of people so that sense of somewhat normalcy returns without sudden increase in COVID pts to overwhelm existing healthcare system..
Few ways to achieve this could be:
1) Everyone who can work from home should continue it..This can continue for may be 2 -3 months or more..
2) Regions can be divided in Red zone ( high risk of community spread ), yellow zone (moderate risk of community spread) , Green zone ( low risk of community spread).. This will be dynamic division and area can be reclassified as situation evolves.
3) Red zones will require extended quarantine.. No public transport here.. Everything to mantain social distancing should be strictly enforced for longer time say one more month..No in and out movement from these areas permitted
4)In Yellow zones return of low risk individuals should be allowed in community.. strong public motivation will be needed to keep high risk individuals i.e. elderly and those with multiple co morbidities.. We can use all available data from adhar/ insurance / PMJAY to tag and encourage high risk individuals to stay home so that young , healthy people can restart work and contribute to herd immunity.. Unless herd immunity develops transmission of virus is not going to slow down.. Again no movement in and out of region can be permitted..
5) many regions havn't seen Covid patients yet .. these Green zones can resume pre lockdown activities .. strict monitoring of every person coming in with quarantine whenever should be enforced.
6) Any mass movement of public by train etc should be discouraged for at least one more month.. Crowded trains with closed enviornment will spread infection easily and to far away regions..

obvious problems in this exit plan are:
1) I know this division cant be watertight and transport of goods , milk, agri products will be required ..
2) Most our economic centers will fall in red zone and extended curfew here will affect economy badly..
This is just Raw idea and I hope we all can improve it or comeup with better idea to exit this lock down..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 03 Apr 2020 15:46

The 21 days would allow us to find out the infection cluster. First and foremost the region/district would be locked down. A hard lock down.

Testing expanded on that district to find out more cases. You then bring to household level. You isolate and lockdown the house hold.

This allows us to free the remaining part of the society, by disinfecting the places.

It is tough on the infected household. Some may be unlucky to show symptoms quite late in the lockdown. However we have no choice. They need to be supported financially.

Bilwara in Rajasthan is under very hard lockdown. It was the worst effected region. No new cases since 3 days. Regionwise lock down, testing and isolation helps to create the place.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 03 Apr 2020 17:54

Intranasal COVID-19 vaccine: Bharat Biotech ties up with FluGen, UW-Madison virologists

CoroFlu could be in human clinical trials by fall (September-December) of 2020, Bharat Biotech statement said.

Vaccine maker Bharat Biotech, on April 4, said it had joined hands to develop a unique intranasal vaccine against COVID-19 in collaboration with US-based vaccine company FluGen and virologists at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.

Bharat Biotech will manufacture the vaccine, conduct clinical trials and prepare to produce almost 300 million doses of vaccine for global distribution.

"Under the collaboration agreement, FluGen will transfer its existing manufacturing processes to Bharat Biotech to enable the company to scale up production and produce the vaccine for clinical trials," said Dr. Raches Ella, Head of Business Development at Bharat Biotech.

An intranasal vaccine is delivered through the nose, something like a nasal spray. It is considered to be effective and convenient for self administration, but the formulation is highly complex. There is no vaccine for COVID-19 at the moment. Along with Bharat Biotech, dozens of companies are trying to develop vaccines including Indian companies, such as Serum Institute of India and Cadila Healthcare.


Bharat Biotech has said the refinement of the CoroFlu vaccine concept and testing in laboratory animal models at UW–Madison is expected to take three to six months. Bharat Biotech in Hyderabad, India will then begin production scale-up for safety and efficacy testing in humans.

CoroFlu will build on FluGen's flu vaccine candidate known as M2SR. That vaccine was based on research by UW-Madison virologists and FluGen co-founders Yoshihiro Kawaoka and Gabriele Neumann, is a self-limiting version of the influenza virus that can induce an immune response against the flu.

Kawaoka's lab plans to insert gene sequences from SARS-CoV-2, the official name of the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, into M2SR so that the new vaccine will also induce immunity against the coronavirus, according to a UW-Madison statement.

Four Phase I and Phase II clinical trials involving hundreds of subjects have shown the M2SR flu vaccine to be safe and well tolerated. This safety profile, M2SR’s ability to induce a strong immune response, and the ability of influenza viruses to carry sequences of other viruses make M2SR an attractive option for rapidly developing CoroFlu as a safe and effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

“We are going to modify M2SR by adding part of the coding region for the coronavirus spike protein that the virus uses to latch onto cells and begin infection,” says Gabriele Neumann, a senior virologist in Kawaoka’s lab and co-founder of FluGen.

“CoroFlu will also express the influenza virus hemagglutinin protein, which is the major influenza virus antigen, so we should get immune responses to both coronavirus and influenza,” he added.

M2SR is a unique form of the flu virus. It lacks a gene called M2, which restricts the virus to undergoing only a single round of replication in cells.

“The single replication means the virus can enter the cell, but it can’t leave,” says FluGen co-founder, president and CEO Paul Radspinner. “So, in essence it tricks the body into thinking it’s infected with flu, which triggers a full immune response. But since it can’t replicate further, you don’t get sick.”

CoroFlu, like M2SR, will be delivered intranasally. This route of administration mimics the natural route of infection by coronavirus and influenza and activates several modes of the immune system. Intranasal delivery is more effective at inducing multiple types of immune responses than the intramuscular shots that deliver most flu vaccines.

The Kawaoka group will insert genetic sequences from SARS-CoV-2 into M2SR and then assess CoroFlu’s safety and efficacy in animal models at UW–Madison’s Influenza Research Institute. The institute has a high-level biosafety facility designated Biosafety Level 3 Agriculture with the ability to safely handle and study pathogens like highly pathogenic influenza viruses and the novel coronavirus.

M2SR was developed by FluGen and includes technology exclusively licensed through the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation (WARF), which manages patents for UW–Madison. “To confront a global challenge, this is collaborative discovery at its best,” says Erik Iverson, CEO of WARF. “The partners in this endeavor — University of Wisconsin researchers, a biotech startup, and an international vaccine developer — are moving forward with a sense of urgency and integrity incumbent upon us as scientists and world citizens.”

Bharat Biotech has commercialized 16 vaccines, including a vaccine developed against the H1N1 flu that caused the 2009 pandemic.

somdev
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby somdev » 03 Apr 2020 18:00

Countermeasure strategies being drawn up to reduce dependency on ventilators for Corona+ patients requiring intensive care. Many deaths are due to secondary cytokine response of the host body.

Novartis and Incyte are planning to launch a clinical study to test the potential of Jakavi (ruxolitinib) in patients with COVID-19 associated cytokine storm, a type of severe immune overreaction that can result from the infection and may contribute to respiratory compromise in some patients.

According to the Swiss drugmaker, preclinical and preliminary clinical evidence suggests that the JAK inhibitor could reduce the number of patients requiring intensive care and mechanical ventilation.

http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novarti ... rm_1335533

sooraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 03 Apr 2020 18:05

Novel coronavirus vaccine: Prospects in India

Dr Seema Mishra, Assistant Professor of Bioinformatics and Systems biology laboratory in the Department of Biochemistry at University of Hyderabad, talks to THE WEEK as she races against time in developing a vaccine that can fight the novel coronavirus.


You have developed a potential vaccine to fight COVID-19. Please tell us in detail about it.

The novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV vaccine is currently at design stage. This is a potential peptide-based vaccine. These peptides are taken from coronavirus structural (proteins which make up the virus structure) and non-structural proteins. As there is less data on the nature of a particular coronaviral protein as being virulent, all ten coronaviral proteins were taken into account to design potential vaccine candidates. This peptide vaccine is based on the fact that immune cells inside the body, called T cells, recognise the viral peptide (also called T cell epitope) on the cell surface as foreign and quickly mount an immune response to destroy that cell in order to clear the infection. Choosing these peptides, among thousands of other peptides, which can help mount the immune response is a cumbersome process.


Usually any vaccine discovery takes years on end....

Usually, it takes about 15 years to fully develop a peptide-based vaccine starting from design to development and human clinical trials. Even the first basic step, which is the laboratory exploratory stage to identify antigenic epitopes, takes 2-4 years! However, utilizing powerful immunoinformatics approaches with computational softwares developed, within a short span of time--in my case, 10 days—and lesser cost, one can design and select a peptide (T cell epitopes) list for further experimental trials.


When did you start with it, and how did it progress?

My work using immuninformatics actually started at AIIMS, New Delhi, while designing potential T cell epitope vaccines for cancer immunotherapy way back in 2005. Then, my research took another direction in computational systems biology approaches in cancer. So, when the time came for a swift action to tackle coronavirus and contribute in fight for survival against this deadly pathogen, I jumped into the fray. The principles and software tools required for designing vaccine candidates against cancer and nCoV are the same, and so it was not difficult to establish. Within a matter of 10 days during the government lockdown in March, I used the work-from-home opportunity to full advantage to provide the scientific community this candidate epitope set to work with.


Have you shared it with the scientific community at large?

Yes, this work has been disseminated swiftly to the scientific community through ChemRxiv preprint platform at ChemRxiv.org. This preprint platform is managed by American Chemical Society, Royal Society of Chemistry, The Chemical Society of Japan among others. The beauty of preprints is that you can rapidly disseminate your initial findings to the world and establish priority of a discovery as well as be free to publish in a peer-reviewed journal at a later stage. Conventional peer-reviewed journals take a time of about 3 to 6 months for publishing and by then, much of the useful information is lost when time is of the essence.


What further work does remain to be done to make it ready for use? How do you plan to test it?

Further fine-tuning of more such candidate epitopes needs to be done. Structural and conservancy analyses will help narrow down this list to few key candidates. There is a battery of wet lab assays to be done as well as pre-clinical and clinical trials. It may take about one to one-and-a-half-years to fully develop a safe and effective vaccine, if we act fast.


What is your analysis of the present situation of COVID-19 in the country with regard to its spread?

Our country has acted swiftly and it is a good initiative of our Honourable Prime Minister to ensure the lockdown and prevention of further spread of the virus. This is a much needed initiative and now it all needs to be complied strictly by the people of India with self-discipline till the situation demands.


How is the western world preparing a vaccine against COVID-19? Could you compare our vaccine development against theirs?

World Health Organization (WHO) has shared a draft report of COVID-19 candidate vaccines with us. As of March 20, 2020, two candidate vaccines are at clinical evaluation and 42 at pre-clinical stage. These vaccines are being developed using a variety of platforms like DNA-based, subunit peptide-based, live attenuated and even adenovirus-based vaccines. From this list, we are informed that from India, two companies are in the list—one is Zydus Cadila using replicating viral vector platform and other is Serum Institute of India in partnership with Codegenix, USA using live attenuated virus platform. To the best of my knowledge, this work is the first one from India establishing subunit peptide vaccine platform which is safer than using live attenuated viruses. We hope to develop a safe and effective vaccine, which can withstand immune backfiring, as one has to look out for developing immunopathologies, too, and avoid this pitfall.

chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 03 Apr 2020 18:30

DrRatnadip wrote:More I think about exiting lockdown more I realize how tough it is going to be.. If we see sudden increase in cases after curfew is lifted , people will start questioning very purpose of this 21 days lockdown.. If govt increases lockdown further we will see less and less compliance from people and more clashesh with police..
Obvious aim of govt will be to allow enough movement of people so that sense of somewhat normalcy returns without sudden increase in COVID pts to overwhelm existing healthcare system..
Few ways to achieve this could be:
1) Everyone who can work from home should continue it..This can continue for may be 2 -3 months or more..
2) Regions can be divided in Red zone ( high risk of community spread ), yellow zone (moderate risk of community spread) , Green zone ( low risk of community spread).. This will be dynamic division and area can be reclassified as situation evolves.
3) Red zones will require extended quarantine.. No public transport here.. Everything to mantain social distancing should be strictly enforced for longer time say one more month..No in and out movement from these areas permitted
4)In Yellow zones return of low risk individuals should be allowed in community.. strong public motivation will be needed to keep high risk individuals i.e. elderly and those with multiple co morbidities.. We can use all available data from adhar/ insurance / PMJAY to tag and encourage high risk individuals to stay home so that young , healthy people can restart work and contribute to herd immunity.. Unless herd immunity develops transmission of virus is not going to slow down.. Again no movement in and out of region can be permitted..
5) many regions havn't seen Covid patients yet .. these Green zones can resume pre lockdown activities .. strict monitoring of every person coming in with quarantine whenever should be enforced.
6) Any mass movement of public by train etc should be discouraged for at least one more month.. Crowded trains with closed enviornment will spread infection easily and to far away regions..

obvious problems in this exit plan are:
1) I know this division cant be watertight and transport of goods , milk, agri products will be required ..
2) Most our economic centers will fall in red zone and extended curfew here will affect economy badly..
This is just Raw idea and I hope we all can improve it or comeup with better idea to exit this lock down..


I really like this, Doctor. A blanket lockdown for extended period would damage the economy which is needed to generate the resources needed to combat the virus. The PPE problem is a defining example, even highly industrialized countries cannot produce key items when in lockdown. India is a continental sized country, it needs the parts that are not or less infected to resume economic activities that can resource the fight in places that are in lockdown.

The key is how we supply and sustain the red and yellow regions until they are healed.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 03 Apr 2020 18:40

jpremnath wrote:Amidst all this, have you noticed how the Pakis somehow managed to reduce the growth in numbers? From double our numbers of infected a week back, they are at par now...
Even if we discount the nizamudheen fiasco, our rising numbers is a bit concerning. It is gonna take one more week for the lockdown influence to kick in i guess.


Pak probably ran out of test kits. Also, people dying of respiratory ailments are not being checked for the Virus.
There are just 3 hospitals in Punjab province where you can be admitted for Corona.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 03 Apr 2020 18:50

amar_p wrote:Google has published google maps based tracking data of mobile phone users (using Android presumably) for a lot of countries which you can get from:
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

The mobility trends report for India (pdf) compared to baseline starting beginning of February:
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_IN_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Quick comparison between India and France :
Retail & recreation Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters.

INDIA -77% FRANCE -88%

Grocery & pharmacy Mobility trends for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies.

INDIA -65% FRANCE -72%

Parks Mobility trends for places like national parks, public beaches, marinas, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens

INDIA -57% FRANCE -82%

So going by this admittedly partial view which is nevertheless quite insightful, the lockdown is working, but compliance is not strong enough in India. To get over the hill and flatten the curve, these numbers should be >80%.


This can be a bit misleading. For e.g. in restaurants, a lot of staff are home delivery executives who have to keep their location on, for the customer to track. They visit the restaurant multiple times a day. Assume a restaurant has 20 customers allowing their location to be shown and 1 delivery boy making 10 trips/day. After lockdown, this reduces to 0 customers and 12 home deliveries. It will show a 70% fall (41-12)/41, whereas the reality is a 100% drop in visitors.

DrRatnadip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 03 Apr 2020 18:53

chola wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:More I think about exiting lockdown more I realize how tough it is going to be.. If we see sudden increase in cases after curfew is lifted , people will start questioning very purpose of this 21 days lockdown.. If govt increases lockdown further we will see less and less compliance from people and more clashesh with police..
Obvious aim of govt will be to allow enough movement of people so that sense of somewhat normalcy returns without sudden increase in COVID pts to overwhelm existing healthcare system..
Few ways to achieve this could be:
1) Everyone who can work from home should continue it..This can continue for may be 2 -3 months or more..
2) Regions can be divided in Red zone ( high risk of community spread ), yellow zone (moderate risk of community spread) , Green zone ( low risk of community spread).. This will be dynamic division and area can be reclassified as situation evolves.
3) Red zones will require extended quarantine.. No public transport here.. Everything to mantain social distancing should be strictly enforced for longer time say one more month..No in and out movement from these areas permitted
4)In Yellow zones return of low risk individuals should be allowed in community.. strong public motivation will be needed to keep high risk individuals i.e. elderly and those with multiple co morbidities.. We can use all available data from adhar/ insurance / PMJAY to tag and encourage high risk individuals to stay home so that young , healthy people can restart work and contribute to herd immunity.. Unless herd immunity develops transmission of virus is not going to slow down.. Again no movement in and out of region can be permitted..
5) many regions havn't seen Covid patients yet .. these Green zones can resume pre lockdown activities .. strict monitoring of every person coming in with quarantine whenever should be enforced.
6) Any mass movement of public by train etc should be discouraged for at least one more month.. Crowded trains with closed enviornment will spread infection easily and to far away regions..

obvious problems in this exit plan are:
1) I know this division cant be watertight and transport of goods , milk, agri products will be required ..
2) Most our economic centers will fall in red zone and extended curfew here will affect economy badly..
This is just Raw idea and I hope we all can improve it or comeup with better idea to exit this lock down..


I really like this, Doctor. A blanket lockdown for extended period would damage the economy which is needed to generate the resources needed to combat the virus. The PPE problem is a defining example, even highly industrialized countries cannot produce key items when in lockdown. India is a continental sized country, it needs the parts that are not or less infected to resume economic activities that can resource the fight in places that are in lockdown.

The key is how we supply and sustain the red and yellow regions until they are healed.


Supplying essentials will be difficult.. Only way to manage this will be ICU like PPE at point of loading /unloading..drivers returnining from yellow / red zones will also need to be quarantined for certain period.. It seems hard but it is certainly less hard than total lockdown

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 03 Apr 2020 19:02

India Finds Itself At The Back Of The Line For Virus Test Kits

As India races to head off the novel coronavirus pandemic, it's empowered almost 200 state-run and private labs to conduct tests to determine who among its dense population has the virus.
Yet weeks into an outbreak that's caused a national lockdown, those labs are largely standing idle. The 123 state-run labs are operating at only 36% capacity, while the 49 accredited private labs managed just an average of eight tests each on Monday, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research.

They say they lack test kits as India struggles to secure the foreign-made ones now in urgent demand globally. Meanwhile, red tape is slowing the deployment of locally made test kits.

"We don't have kits at all," said Nilesh Shah, the president of Metropolis Healthcare Ltd., one of the accredited private diagnostics firms, adding that government labs don't have supplies either. "The priorities are going to countries where there is a major outbreak like Italy and Spain and the U.S. and the U.K. So all the major international vendors are saying I'm not sure how much I can allot for India."

The number of tests in India stood at just 42,788 on March 31, one-thirtieth the pace of the U.S and even further behind that of top testing countries like South Korea.

The low rate has sparked speculation that India's official tally of just under 2,000 infections is underestimating the true size of its outbreak as nations doing more testing report much higher case numbers. Densely packed cities and meager public finances make the country uniquely exposed to the kind of fast-moving contagion that's overwhelmed health-care systems around the world.

Tracking India's Steps to Contain Economic Fallout of the Virus

While the danger of Covid-19 has prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to impose the world's biggest lockdown, India has to compete with much richer countries for the chemicals used to assess a patient's sample. While India has a vast manufacturing sector devoted to churning out generic drugs, its bio-pharmaceutical industry's ability to make higher-end medication and devices -- like the virus test kits which identify the pathogen's genetic sequence in a patient's sample -- is still lacking.

The Indian Council for Medical Research referred questions on the impact of the testing kit shortage to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. A spokeswoman for the ministry didn't respond to calls, emails and text messages requesting comment.

"Currently there is more demand than supply so everything is overpriced," said Akoriaswamy Velumani, managing director of Thyrocare Technologies Ltd., another diagnostics company recruited for testing. "We buy test kits and sell the services. We don't have adequate test kits, and adequate test kits are not available in the market."

Can't Get to Pune

With the bottleneck in foreign imports, pressure is growing for India to use locally-made kits. The government will accept kits already approved by the U.S. and European authorities, but local manufacturers need to go through a regulatory approval process which up to now has been conducted only by one government facility in the city of Pune, a three-hour drive from Mumbai.

With all trains, flights and railway services halted in the three-week lockdown, that means that any kit maker not based in Pune has not been able to get approval. Pune-based startup Mylab Discovery Solutions is the sole local maker approved at present and has the capacity to make 20,000 tests a day. It's working to ramp that up, the company said in an emailed statement.

Others have been hampered. Trivitron Healthcare, a Chennai-based maker of medical devices, said it's not been able to reach Pune but is hopeful that the planned addition of an evaluation center in Delhi, where Trivitron has its own office, may help it win approval for its own test kit as early as next week, said Managing Director G.S.K. Velu. Its test kit can produce results at a cost of 500 rupees ($6.50) per patient.

"Internationally it's much more expensive," he said. "The U.S. is paying much more. In India we have to innovate and bring it down to very low cost so people can actually afford it."


Can't the local companies ask/apply for a travel pass and "drive" themselves to Pune for submission of the kits?


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