Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1748
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 05 Apr 2020 15:40

Jayram wrote:https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/least-75-000-coronavirus-infections-041207265.html
India numbers. Easy to understand estimation model using death rate and simple math. Makes the case for extending curfew for 1 month more. Also the current infection rate and the therefore future death rate does not account for the Nizamuddin/JM cases. Better save this to see what the effect will be in the weeks ahead.


This is total nonsense written by a person clueless about Indian ground realities. The actual cases will be close to official data.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 427
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 05 Apr 2020 15:54

Here i tried to do epidemic model calculation for india

Image
Crosscheck the assumption not a bad match with real numbers
Image
Assumptions and inputs if you want to model the same and do further study
Image

Image

prashanth
BRFite
Posts: 533
Joined: 04 Sep 2007 16:50
Location: Barad- dyr

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby prashanth » 05 Apr 2020 16:27

That's right. Also, we have the situation under control if most (or all) of the new positive cases are reported for those who are already under quarantine. The positive case from Dharavi was really worrisome, until it was revealed that the person had given shelter to TJ campers. From the internet, we know that about 20 % of cases require hospitalization and the fatality rate is around 2% for this disease. So if and when the disease reaches community spreading,, stage we will know when people start coming to hospitals in large numbers with pneumonia like symptoms. So all those scaremongering articles quoting tens of thousands of cases are estimates without any factual information to support.

Arun.prabhu wrote:From what I’ve read elsewhere on the net, the fact that the ratio of positive tests isn’t shooting sky high but is actually fluctuating between the 4-6% Daily indicates we don’t have an active epidemic.

shaun wrote:I collected it from multiple sources but for last 4 days from IMRC reports , problem is they are updating but deleting the past reports.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 749
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 05 Apr 2020 18:03

Most of the social media campaigns against india are run by very few specific groups. they have zero impact on majority of us which makes them 'irrelevant' in our eyes. But think about the whole picture. There is at least 20% population which is anti-bjp. these campaigns' target is this 20%.

the agenda of these campaigns is not to 'convert' the right folks to left. it is to keep the 20% left under their fold. MAD didn't take the 20% seriously. Now these 20% all over the country attended the delhi event and feel justified about defying GoI. You can't win sabka viswash by letting this 20% get fooled by bif forces. whatever the sh*t they are doing under the garb of opposition is actually hurting the nation.

why I am ranting about it? because more than 300 people attended the delhi event from a remote area. this news doing rounds in local circles. mind you, this place has very little muslim presence. only because of the relentless propaganda done by the bif, these clueless idiots attended some sketchy event in delhi.

Our GoI should put limits to what type of propaganda should be allowed in media. Otherwise, our whole country will be get undone in months. Not all muslims are bad. if these campaigns run unchecked, they all will go rogue.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 05 Apr 2020 19:47

If they are lying about containment of the virus then the second wave should explode in China in about two weeks:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Navjot_Singh888/status/1246785949125795842


Návjot Singh (雷辛格)
@Navjot_Singh888
Masks or no masks, China must be pretty confident in its situation and systems ...this was the scene at the famed Huangshan today (Yellow Mountain). Risky...

Image

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1922
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 05 Apr 2020 19:57

^^To me, given the current circumstances (unless they have 100% trust in CCP about COVID not being an issue anymore), the above pic is like a bunch of people having a bucket list about seeing that particular famed show. Just crazy...

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12405
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Apr 2020 20:00

China will not report anything unless people start dying like flies and they cant hide it. Till then they will pretend everything is normal.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1355
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 05 Apr 2020 20:03

schinnas wrote:
Jayram wrote:https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/least-75-000-coronavirus-infections-041207265.html
India numbers. Easy to understand estimation model using death rate and simple math. Makes the case for extending curfew for 1 month more. Also the current infection rate and the therefore future death rate does not account for the Nizamuddin/JM cases. Better save this to see what the effect will be in the weeks ahead.


This is total nonsense written by a person clueless about Indian ground realities. The actual cases will be close to official data.


He would be more credible if he published his original US prediction beforehand, rather than claim he said so.

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3828
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 05 Apr 2020 20:09

Sir there is nothing earth shattering about what he is saying, it is a standard epidemic distribution model, however, we have always defied models and general predictions Demo(modelling by economists predicting dooms day), All wars with Pakis(predicted to be won by Pakis except Kargil), Brits famously predicting we will not be able to govern ourselves and that there will be coups(which actually was true in almost all the cases except us) and so on .... lets see

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 05 Apr 2020 20:36

Aditya_V wrote:China will not report anything unless people start dying like flies and they cant hide it. Till then they will pretend everything is normal.


They just came out of a lockdown for two months that they couldn't pretend away. Their economy CONTRACTED. lol

This here would be a brand new world of pretense that would get blown away once the second wave hits. Can't pretend when your economy is plummeting and output goes to hell.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4829
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 05 Apr 2020 21:02

Ethirajan Srinivasan
@Ethirajans
86 tested positive for #COVID today in TN, 85 of them are #TablighiJamat attendees, one returned from Dubai.
5:31 AM · Apr 5, 2020·Twitter for Android

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1922
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 05 Apr 2020 21:05

Will the Coronavirus Ever Go Away? Here's What One of the WHO's Top Experts Thinks

Posting in full.
Do you expect COVID-19 to continue to spread?

We can get little glimpses into the future from places that are recently getting infected, places that aren’t infected, but also the places where it all started. And if you go back and look at China right now, they [identified the virus] in early January, they had a full on response, sort of threw everything at it, and it’s middle of March now and they estimate maybe end of March they’ll be coming out of it, so a full three months.

When you look around the world in Europe, North America, the Middle East, you can see that we’re really at the period of exponential growth, we’re still seeing the virus going up very, very rapidly, even in hard hit places like Italy, for example. These countries still have months of this challenge in front of them.

When you look to other parts of the world, like Africa, for example, and parts of the Indian subcontinent you can see that it’s just beginning. Even though they have very, very few cases, if you look carefully at that curve, it’s also in a phase of exponential growth.

What do you think the coronavirus pandemic will look like six months from now?

I expect we will be emerging—still with disease in various parts of the world—but we should be emerging from a bad wave of this disease across a large swathe of the planet. The challenge is we’re going to be back into the flu season. And one of the big questions is, are we going to see a surge of it again at that period?

Looking further into the future, what do you anticipate? Will COVID-19 ever disappear?

What it looks like is that we’re going to have a substantial wave of this disease right through basically the globe unless something very different happens in the southern hemisphere. And the question then is: What’s going to happen? Is this going to disappear completely? Are we going to get into a period of cyclical waves? Or are we going to end up with low level endemic disease that we have to deal with? Most people believe that that first scenario where this might disappear completely is very, very unlikely, it just transmits too easily in the human population, so more likely waves or low level disease.

A lot of that is going to depend on what we as countries, as societies, do. If we do the testing of every single case, rapid isolation of the cases, you should be able to keep cases down low. If you simply rely on the big shut down measures without finding every case, then every time you take the brakes off, it could come back in waves. So that future frankly, may be determined by us and our response as much as the virus.

The U.S. and Europe had quite a head start to get ready for this. Was a major outbreak inevitable, or could it have been stopped?

I don’t like to use the word “squandered,” that’s a big word. But we probably haven’t optimized how we used that time. Now what we’ve done is, we’ve gained time again by putting in place these big shutdowns. All they do is they buy time, they don’t actually stop the virus, they suppress it, they slow it. What you want to do now is use that time well to get the testing in place, to get the systems in place, so that you can actually manage the individual level cases that are going to be fundamental to stopping this.

And the big question right now is “Are countries going to use this time during these shutdown periods optimally?” Because if you just shut it down your societies, your economies and hope for the best… This is guerrilla warfare against a virus, the virus is just going to sit you out, it’ll just circulate quietly among households and then you’re going to let them all go again and phoom there’s no reason it shouldn’t take off again, unless you’re ready for it.

How long do you think this outbreak will impact daily life in the U.S. and western Europe? How long do you think it’ll take for life to return to normal?

You have to compare it to the few examples you have that have been through this, hence you have to go back to China, look at [South] Korea, look at Singapore. These countries in the very early stages, if they were to throw everything at it, probably a solid two months in front of them, if not a bit longer, maybe three months.

What we’re seeing is that they’re throwing bits and pieces at it. Most countries in the west frankly are really struggling with, “Can we really test all these cases? Can we really isolate all the confirmed cases?” They’re struggling with that. So they’re approaching it a bit differently than China did and the big question is going to be: Is that approach going to work and limit it to just a few months, that hard hit China took? Or is it going to drag it out so long that the bigger societal, economic impacts linger longer than anyone want?

Do you think the U.S. lost critical time with its testing rollout issues?

I think every country may not have optimized the use of the time it had available, and for different reasons. Some people just continued to think this might be flu and some cases they may not have had the testing capacity.

Is there reason to be concerned about a second wave of infections in China?

Absolutely, and China is concerned. As we traveled around China, one of the most striking things that I found, especially in contrast to the West, as I spoke to governors, mayors, and their cases were plummeting—in some of the places they were down to single digit cases already—as I spoke to them and I said, “So what are you doing now?” They said, “We’re building beds, we’re buying ventilators, we’re preparing.” They said, “We do not expect this virus to disappear, but we do expect to be able to run our society, run our economy, run our health system. We cannot end up in this situation again.”

Have you seen examples of politics overruling public health or slowing down responses?

No. I know a lot of people will challenge my assessment. The reasons that there have been problems in some countries is they haven’t had a consensus on the severity of the disease, or they haven’t had a consensus around the transmissibility. You have to have that consensus that you’re dealing with something serious and severe and dangerous for your society and individuals. Otherwise you just cannot generate the public support which is fundamental to accepting the measures, but also the implementing.

Why does the fatality rate in Italy looks to be so high?

It’s a combination of factors. If you look at Italy, and the age distribution, it’s the second-oldest country in the world after Japan, people forget that. You have an older population number one, they get the more severe disease and they’re more likely to die.

What countries are in the most vulnerable situation?

Everyone is vulnerable, but the big question of course is what’s going to happen when this really starts to take off in those low-income countries where they don’t have as much medical capacity such as in Africa.

It’s one of those things that you don’t want to imagine because the numbers could be so grave. The population distribution could help. Is the humidity and the temperature going to help make a difference? I would hope so, but look at the situation in Singapore, that’s a hot, humid country. So the situation in these countries could be very difficult.

The WHO is urging countries to “test, test, test.” Are there any countries in particular that you think are not doing enough testing?

That’s much easier answered the other way around. Is anyone doing enough testing? There it’s limited. It’s China, [South] Korea, Singapore.

Is there reason to be concerned that the number of people infected in Iran is higher than the official numbers being reported?

Absolutely. And Iran is concerned for the same reason. When I spoke with the deputy minister last week, one of their concerns was just getting the information from all the facilities, all the provinces. I hear all the time people say, “Oh, this country is hiding cases,” or “This country is not sharing all its data.” Usually the countries are struggling to get meaningful data. The worst thing they could do is go out with guesstimates that they think they have gigantic numbers.

There are reports of people dying of coronavirus who are otherwise healthy. What have your teams seen in terms of who the virus is killing?

One of the things that terrifies me now is, as this is spread in the west is, there’s this sense of invulnerability among millennials. And absolutely not. Ten percent of the people who are in [intensive care units] in Italy are in their 20s, 30s or 40s. These are young, healthy people with no co-morbidities, no other diseases.

We don’t understand why some young healthy people progress to severe disease and even die and others don’t. We don’t have clear predictors.

What would your message be for young people around the world?

This is one of the most serious diseases you will face in your lifetime, and recognize that and respect it. It is dangerous to you as an individual. It is dangerous to your parents, to your grandparents and the elderly in particular and it is dangerous to your society in general. You are not an island in this, you are part of a broader community, you are part of transmission chains. If you get infected you are making this much more complicated and you are putting people in danger, not just yourself.

Never, never underestimate a new disease, there’s just too much unknown. What we do know is it will kill young people, it will make young people sick in large numbers. You’ve gotta respect this.

What should a country’s first priority after locking down be?

Test, test, test, test, test. Not test, test, test, test, test everyone, but test the suspects, test the suspects, test the suspects.

Then, effectively isolate the confirmed cases. The third piece is the quarantine piece.

How do you think this will end?

This will end with humanity victorious over yet another virus, there’s no question about that. The question is how much and how fast we will take the measures necessary to minimize the damage that this thing can do. In time, we will have therapeutics, we will have vaccines, we’re in a race against that.

And it’s going to take great cooperation and patience from the general population to play their part because at the end of the day it’s going to be the general population that stops this thing and slows it down enough to get it under control.

There is still a lot of appreciation for China from WHO. Not a single word for China hiding & deceiving the world about severity of this virus early on. Shame on WHO for being complicit in making the pandemic.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 05 Apr 2020 21:31

^^^ We need to account for the possibility that WHO is right. That Cheen is able to control the disease at the present which is what people care about at the moment. Assigning blame unfortunately needs to come after the fight with the virus is over.

The truth is two months ago when Wuhan went into lockdown whatever they were hiding is meaningless. When they locked down a city of 11M what more information do you really need?

kvraghav
BRFite
Posts: 967
Joined: 17 Apr 2008 11:47
Location: Some where near the equator

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 05 Apr 2020 21:41

Looks like Maharashtra is headed for a disaster. There is a death for every recovery. If this persists, the death will be 50% of total detected. Any one can reason out this?

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2058
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 05 Apr 2020 21:44

chola wrote: The truth is two months ago when Wuhan went into lockdown whatever they were hiding is meaningless. When they locked down a city of 11M what more information do you really need?
Fully agree with this statement. It is well-known that China is secretive, especially with its economic data. So when they shut down an industrial hub like Wuhan on JAn 23/24, no further proof of the seriousness and virulence of this disease was needed after that action. That action alone was a bright, red signal to the world.

The photo posted above (from Navjot Singh) is interesting. Someone is trying to convey a message. It seems to contradict a bit what's going on in factories where they still are having social distancing, per the photo in this article dated March 4th. (It would be odd if Chinese citizens are required to practice social distancing at work, but not outside of work. The virus can spread just as easily in both locations).

https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/fi ... 1584339412

I read in a news article that in February, container ship traffic out of China dropped by 80%. At this point, even if the Chinese industry gets going and they start making and shipping out stuff, who is going to buy? With the job losses, and the lock-down, consumption is going to take a big hit for 2-3 months atleast.

SandeepA
BRFite
Posts: 663
Joined: 22 Oct 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SandeepA » 05 Apr 2020 21:48

nvishal wrote:This is my opinion about the outbreak after the nizamudin incident

Covid19 will not be eradicated from India. It will linger anonymously in the muslim ghettos/communities across india. The deaths will generally remain unreported and will rarely be attributed to covid19. Occasionally, the virus will infect non-muslims in the surrounding areas and an inquiry will be launched. Disinfectant will be sprayed, some people will be forced into 14 day quarantine and the matter will subside.

This realisation has already come into the imagination of Pakistanis and Muslims in general. This is why imran khan isn't serious and why muslims on tiktok are making those bizarre videos because they understand their own community better than we do and they know that it is a fight they cannot win.


Very plausible. One good outcome- it will make the Muslims the new untouchables of a new India. Even the Farhan Akthars and Saba Naqvis will not dare venture into those mohallas..people will dread punctured tires...death blow to love jihad.

ramdas
BRFite
Posts: 561
Joined: 21 Mar 2006 02:18

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramdas » 05 Apr 2020 21:53

1) More and more information is coming out indicating that China has understated its cases as well as deaths by a large factor: at least 15, with Wuhan itself accounting for 40000+ deaths. After all, the virus did have a free run in China for the first two months, with the authorities trying to supress information about the issue.

2) Maybe the PRC regime decided to get the economy up and running since most of those who end up with severe illness are the old and sick. Given that about 10 million people die of natural causes in China every year, the regime could well decide that losing an extra million people in a year is an acceptable price for keeping their economy running/gaining an economc lead over the rest of the world. In addition, they would be able to explain off an extra million deaths spread out over a year. After all, the same regime hid tens of millions of deaths in a famine during the great leap forward. The CCP is certainly inhuman enough to pursue such a policy if they see the regime as a whole being ``better off" than the rest of the world after it all pans out.

Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 05 Apr 2020 21:54

Rate of doubling of Covid-19 cases 4.1 days; without Jamaat incident it would have been 7.4: Centre
NEW DELHI: The rate of doubling of Covid-19 cases in India is 4.1 days presently but if the cases linked to the Tablighi Jamaat congregation would not have happened, it would have been 7.4 days, the health ministry said on Sunday.

Jayram
BRFite
Posts: 338
Joined: 14 Jan 2003 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jayram » 05 Apr 2020 21:55

schinnas wrote:
Jayram wrote:https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/least-75-000-coronavirus-infections-041207265.html
India numbers. Easy to understand estimation model using death rate and simple math. Makes the case for extending curfew for 1 month more. Also the current infection rate and the therefore future death rate does not account for the Nizamuddin/JM cases. Better save this to see what the effect will be in the weeks ahead.


This is total nonsense written by a person clueless about Indian ground realities. The actual cases will be close to official data.

Why? It is an extrapolation from the death rate using a factor. Yes that factor may be wrong...time will tell.

Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 05 Apr 2020 21:57

Coronavirus: 12 Test Positive For Covid-19 In Indore Area Where Doctors Were Brutality Attacked While Screening
Twelve people have been found to be positive for novel coronavirus in the Tatpatti Bakhal area in Indore where a team of doctors who came to investigate coronavirus infection was attacked just days ago, reports Nai Duniya.

Jayram
BRFite
Posts: 338
Joined: 14 Jan 2003 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jayram » 05 Apr 2020 21:58

suryag wrote:Sir there is nothing earth shattering about what he is saying, it is a standard epidemic distribution model, however, we have always defied models and general predictions Demo(modelling by economists predicting dooms day), All wars with Pakis(predicted to be won by Pakis except Kargil), Brits famously predicting we will not be able to govern ourselves and that there will be coups(which actually was true in almost all the cases except us) and so on .... lets see

Lets hope you are correct otherwise the consequences of reaching the end of the curfew and CV spreading exponentially are likely to be horrific. It will take data and courage to make a call one way or the other.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 05 Apr 2020 22:03

SriKumar wrote:
chola wrote: The truth is two months ago when Wuhan went into lockdown whatever they were hiding is meaningless. When they locked down a city of 11M what more information do you really need?
Fully agree with this statement. It is well-known that China is secretive, especially with its economic data. So when they shut down an industrial hub like Wuhan on JAn 23/24, no further proof of the seriousness and virulence of this disease was needed after that action. That action alone was a bright, red signal to the world.

The photo posted above (from Navjot Singh) is interesting. Someone is trying to convey a message. It seems to contradict a bit what's going on in factories where they still are having social distancing, per the photo in this article dated March 4th. (It would be odd if Chinese citizens are required to practice social distancing at work, but not outside of work. The virus can spread just as easily in both locations).

https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/fi ... 1584339412

I read in a news article that in February, container ship traffic out of China dropped by 80%. At this point, even if the Chinese industry gets going and they start making and shipping out stuff, who is going to buy? With the job losses, and the lock-down, consumption is going to take a big hit for 2-3 months atleast.


Their overall economy is in the sh1tter like everyone else except that the virus has been clobbering them longer. Their one growth area is medical supplies and PPE because they are the only ones being able to make that stuff at bulk. Everyone else is piecemeal with that stuff mainly because before the crisis, those were low margin commodities that Cheen had always specialized in.

There are some signs that Cheen is increasingly willing to forgo trade to keep this disease under control. They closed down international flights last week when MNCs were clamoring to get their people back in.

They probably see the writing on the wall that globalization is dead post-Wuhan and they are already pointing their economy inward.
Last edited by chola on 05 Apr 2020 22:04, edited 1 time in total.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9237
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby brar_w » 05 Apr 2020 22:04

ramdas wrote:1) More and more information is coming out indicating that China has understated its cases as well as deaths by a large factor: at least 15, with Wuhan itself accounting for 40000+ deaths. After all, the virus did have a free run in China for the first two months, with the authorities trying to supress information about the issue.

2) Maybe the PRC regime decided to get the economy up and running since most of those who end up with severe illness are the old and sick. Given that about 10 million people die of natural causes in China every year, the regime could well decide that losing an extra million people in a year is an acceptable price for keeping their economy running/gaining an economc lead over the rest of the world. In addition, they would be able to explain off an extra million deaths spread out over a year. After all, the same regime hid tens of millions of deaths in a famine during the great leap forward. The CCP is certainly inhuman enough to pursue such a policy if they see the regime as a whole being ``better off" than the rest of the world after it all pans out.


Internalizing the problems will cost them globally. China has never been this connected and part of the larger global economy in modern times. It is very possible that their actions, denials, and suppression of those who wanted to speak up, has economic repercussions for them across the West and the East both direct (due to global economic contraction) and indirect (companies waking up and diversifying their vital SC's). Vital Pharmaceutical and healthcare supply chains will likely be more diversified and an increase in domestic production will likely be the result in many of the highest impacted countries (US, Italy, Spain, France and the UK at the very least). This could trickle into other businesses as well. This was already happening organically due to economic/free-market forces but it is likely to be accelerated by regulations and legislation.
Last edited by brar_w on 05 Apr 2020 22:07, edited 2 times in total.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1355
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 05 Apr 2020 22:06

kvraghav wrote:Looks like Maharashtra is headed for a disaster. There is a death for every recovery. If this persists, the death will be 50% of total detected. Any one can reason out this?


That's because it takes a lot longer to recover than to die. Fatality rate in India is approx 3% (likely to reduce) and at the end this the recovery:death ratio will match the total case : death figure

Mollick.R
BRFite
Posts: 800
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mollick.R » 05 Apr 2020 22:15

I'm overwhelmed, the feeling completely over my senses.

Complete Blackout in my area (Southern India), lots of M population also still it happened.

Candles, Diyas, mobile torch lights & some fireworks too

Didn't expected 2nd time in 10 days this much huge response.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 427
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 05 Apr 2020 22:26

Same out in Mysore. I think it is a success. This will result in further increasing the lockdown. I doubt we are anywhere near peak to lift the lockdown.

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1689
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 05 Apr 2020 22:29

Dont just view it as a gesture of solidarity against coronavirus, what you are witnessing is a civilizational reawakening made possible by one man.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1355
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 05 Apr 2020 22:46

Jayram wrote:
schinnas wrote:
This is total nonsense written by a person clueless about Indian ground realities. The actual cases will be close to official data.

Why? It is an extrapolation from the death rate using a factor. Yes that factor may be wrong...time will tell.


A slight fallacy in this model. The cases in the US (and India) came from abroad. If a person with advanced symptoms arrives in the USA and dies, it does it does not mean (given a 1.2% mortality rate that he assumed) there were another 82 infected people in the US.
However, in the current situation, there are 323000 cases in the US with 9200 deaths. Another 8400 are critical. If we assume all die (those recovering from ICU will be balanced by those non serious cases moving into ICU), we will have 17600 deaths. That is roughly 1.5 million infected (assuming a 1.5% mortality rate - of 750,000 infected assuming a 3% mortality which is probably more realistic). German and Korean mortality rates are 1.5% everyone else (among the major countries) has done worse.

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3828
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 05 Apr 2020 23:03

Looking at the stats from Khatvaanga and putting in 4200 from covidindia website, numbers are looking scarier, the amount of disgust I have for those super spreader ******** is beyond limits

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3828
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 05 Apr 2020 23:30

To RatnaDip garu and other Doctors - some interesting news about invitro results of ivermectin on corona, just throwing it out here, so we have three known potential treatments, BCG, Hydroxychloroquine+azithrmoycin, ivermectin which show promising invitro/invivo trials. I havent heard of the results of remdesavir trials although looks like it is doing good

The FDA-approved Drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17048
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 06 Apr 2020 00:18

Zynda wrote:Will the Coronavirus Ever Go Away? Here's What One of the WHO's Top Experts Thinks

Posting in full.
.
What should a country’s first priority after locking down be?

Test, test, test, test, test. Not test, test, test, test, test everyone, but test the suspects, test the suspects, test the suspects. .

if these morons had clarified this at the start countries like India would have had a much easier time explaining to people that testing everyone and their dog was not the way forward.

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17048
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 06 Apr 2020 00:20

suryag wrote:To RatnaDip garu and other Doctors - some interesting news about invitro results of ivermectin on corona, just throwing it out here, so we have three known potential treatments, BCG, Hydroxychloroquine+azithrmoycin, ivermectin which show promising invitro/invivo trials. I havent heard of the results of remdesavir trials although looks like it is doing good

The FDA-approved Drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro

Apparently remdesevir is being pushed by WHO although there isn't much to speak for its performance. This as per a scientist friend of mine who is involved in finding a covid cure.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9237
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby brar_w » 06 Apr 2020 00:29

Remdesevir RCT's are being conducted in China, the US, the UK and probably elsewhere as well. Like everything else, there is nothing currently out there that is proven to work against Covid-19. Remdesevir is no different.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 628
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 06 Apr 2020 00:55

Time for India traditional medicine to step up to the challenge. There is evidence to suggest that Curcuminoids are prophylactic against Influenza Virus and potentially COVID19. Curcumin, Ginger, Thai Ginger, (Galangal), Citrus potentially provide prophylaxis by binding to the ACE2 receptor of lung epithelial cells. ACE2 receptor is the entry points of COVID19 to Lung Tissue. Turmeric effective against Influenza viral fevers and may be a safer more palatable prophylactic food supplement. Eat copious amounts of Soups with Ginger, Haldi, Lemons (especially lemon zest from the rind)

Granted I still feel that such compounds may or may not be any different from standard placebo. I have upped my ginger, turmeric and lemon consumption

http://web.nchu.edu.tw/pweb/users/taiwa ... h/9906.pdf

CAVEAT : link below is a curcumin fan page
https://www.turmericforhealth.com/turme ... fluenzaflu

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3828
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 06 Apr 2020 01:09

Sir across the board over a period of time we have checked that Neem, Amla, Turmeric, Ashwagandha, Ginger, Garlic Tulsi have potent anti-microb(bacterial/viral) properties, Chyawanprash is a good collection of a few relevant ingredients, why not start having it. BTW, I sincerely hope our pharma companies isolate the various compounds in the herbs above and create compound drugs

Cyrano
BRFite
Posts: 689
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 06 Apr 2020 01:13

Just Social Distancing is not going to be enough. Extremely rigorous hand hygiene practices, cleaning often touched services, avoiding touching face, and wearing surgical masks even if not N95 type is going to make a big difference.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/v=GdEFuvvFOsM[/youtube]

https://youtu.be/GdEFuvvFOsM

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4553
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby JayS » 06 Apr 2020 01:26

One data point from today's presser is - No Anti-Body tests till now. The kits are expected to be received soon and tests to start with these kits by coming Wednesday.

JayS wrote:Saar, after 15th March we tested about 54000 samples. Current known number for TJ cluster is 22000 in contract tracing. So we have tested >30000 samples other than TJ related cases, between 26 March and Today. Which is a number higher than total tests done till 26th March.

Impact of private kits is difficult to judge from the news items I am seeing. Until now orders were lagging. Many private labs had not received kits. MH govt even stopped from taking samples because they did not have kits to conduct tests. At this time the ramp up was started already. On 2nd April end total tests done in Pvt labs were slightly over 2000 with 816 tests done on 2nd April.

Few things are unclear -

- What happened to the 1M RTPCR kits ICMR ordered from US (from what I know from following all Pressers, the number of kits ICMR stocked was at 0.6M, I did not see any reference to any more deliveries).
- What happened to 1M kits requested from WHO.?
- What happened to 1M (later reduced to 0.5M) Fast test kits then ICMR issued request for quotation..? This was like a week ago.
- How many kits we could import among the approved list..?
- KL govt wanted to buy antibody kits from abroad. Not sure if they got it.
- Given first AB fast kits related advisory was published on website on 2 April, did we already start using them...? Today there is an refined one published with proper protocol.
- How many tests are happening on the SARI/ILI/Atypical Pneumonia cases under the surveillance testing.?
- How many individuals we have tested..? Given many, especially the under-treatment patients undergo multiple tests. And as we have more and more cases, quantum of these tests will go on increasing. (Some journo asked question on this today, hopefully we will get data on this tomorrow).

Mollick.R
BRFite
Posts: 800
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mollick.R » 06 Apr 2020 01:30

https://twitter.com/hanson_hhc/status/1241391602523705351?s=20

Suggested to read full thread.
Looks interesting......

@hanson_hhc

Left Bangalore last night and just landed in Shanghai today afternoon. I am surprised by how Pudong Airport and this metro city has been running, under the #COVIDー19 challenge. Here are some of my observations:

Key words: Color card, QR code, Self-protection.
(Thread)


Hanson Hu (胡海川)
@hanson_hhc
·
Mar 21
6/
I was told to get SuiShenCode, a color card showing my health status, in Alipay APP. Green means healthy.

The card is actually a health proof used by everyone in Shanghai. All restaurants and hotels asked me to show it before allowing me in.

A big data product made by Gov.


7/
I went to a BBQ restaurant, and surprised to see it was full. I had to wait 1 hour to get my seat.

To be safe, the restaurant opened every other table, to make sure people don't sit too close.

Ordered and paid, both on #WeChat.


8/
I booked a Didi fast ride(like UBER Prime) to hotel. The front and rear seats of the cab are separated carefully by a large plastic sheet, with 'Disinfected Today' showing on a piece of paper.

Driver told me business was 60-70% of normal time, so was the traffic on the road.


12/
It's a hotel in Shanghai city center. To enter hotel, must test temperature and leave name & contact. To check in, I need to scan this QR code to fill a form about health status &travel history in past 14 days.

Gym, pool, buffet, lounge all closed.
Hotel occupancy rate 25%


13/
No-touch elevator(to avoid virus spread from hands) experience in hotel:

Scaned this QR code using WeChat, a MiniApp asked me which floor I wanted to go. Elevator came to my floor after that. Stepped inside and didn't have to do anything before stepping out at target floor.


17/
Location tracing by telecom carriers.

Moved to a new hotel today. A new step at check-in was providing my travel history.

Scaned QR code using WeChat, clicked 'Yes' to allow carrier search my location data, and it showed which countries/cities I had been in past 14 days.



A good read

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3828
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 06 Apr 2020 01:34

^^^ Another of the tencenters who is out there peddling the CCP's handling of the crisis and how is good and dandy with the system

uskumar
BRFite
Posts: 121
Joined: 24 Aug 2009 23:41

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby uskumar » 06 Apr 2020 01:42

Mollick.R wrote:Complete Blackout in my area (Southern India), lots of M population also still it happened.

Candles, Diyas, mobile torch lights & some fireworks

Even in my area in chennai, there was blackout which is amazing considering the propaganda against modi by dmk for last 3 or 4 years.
Also on Twitter, muslimvirus seems to be Trending. Seems lot of anger being shown at the stupidity of stone pelting incidents. Not helped by viral video of Muslims kissing vegetables and currency notes as well as some westbengal imams comments.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ryogi, wig and 44 guests